Positive effects of energy efficiency on the German electricity sector

Positive effects of energy efficiency on the German electricity sector Main Conclusions Friedrich Seefeldt (Prognos), Frederick Weston (RAP) IEPPEC B...
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Positive effects of energy efficiency on the German electricity sector Main Conclusions Friedrich Seefeldt (Prognos), Frederick Weston (RAP)

IEPPEC BERLIN, 10 SEPTEMBER 2014

Effekte DER Energieeffizienz im Stromsektor the dark side of energy efficiency…

Berliner Energietage, 20.05.2014 | Friedrich Seefeldt (Prognos AG) & David Echternacht (IAEW)

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Effekte DER Energieeffizienz im Stromsektor

Energy Efficiency Scenarios [Electricity Consumption in TWh] 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2000

2005

2010

Reference scenario WWF RE Energy concept

2015

2020

BAU RE Reference RE WWF

2025

2030

2035

Efficiency plus RE BAU

Berliner Energietage, 20.05.2014 | Friedrich Seefeldt (Prognos AG) & David Echternacht (IAEW)

2040

2045

2050

Energy concept RE Efficiency plus

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Positive Effekte von Energieeffizienz auf den deutschen Stromsektor

Key data of the five scenarios BAU

Referenz

Effizienz plus

Energie konzept

WWF

Energy productivity growth (GDP/Primary energy consumption)

1,2 - 1,3 %/a

1,7 -1,9 %/a

2,0 - 2,2 %/a

2,3 -2,5 %/a

2,6 %/a

Annual change in electricity consumption

+0,3 %/a

-0,1 %/a

-0,3 bis - 0,4 %/a

-0,6 %/a

-0,9 %/a

Total change in electricity consumption by 2050 (relative to 2011)

+7 %

-5%

-10 - 15 %

-20 bis - 25 %

-40 %

Total change in electricity consumption by 2050 (relative to 2011)

+37 TWh

-22 TWh

-69 TWh

-117 TWh

-195 TWh

36 %

55 %

46 %

Number of e-vehicles

17 Mio.

25 Mio.

21 Mio.

Electricity consumption of e-vehicles (TWh)

34 TWh

53 TWh

28 TWh

Efficiency development

Mio. €

E-Mobility (values 2050) Share of e-vehicles (passenger cars)

BERLIN, 10.09.2014 | Friedrich Seefeldt, Frederick Weston

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Positive Effekte von Energieeffizienz auf den deutschen Stromsektor

Tasks and Procedure 600

519

556

500

449 402 324

400 300 200 100

Calculating the costs of electricity production: > Conventional power plants > Renewable Energies

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

0

BAU Energiekonzept

Effizienz plus WWF

4 Power consumption scenarios : > Time horizon up to 2050 > Comparison of BAU scenario with three efficiency scenarios

BERLIN, 10.09.2014 | Friedrich Seefeldt, Frederick Weston

Calculating the costs of electricity distribution: > Transmission networks > Distribution networks

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modelling the costs of the grid  German transmission grid operated by 4 transmission system operators (TSO)  more than 800 distribution system operators in Germany (DSO)

 circuit length of German transmission grid around 35,000 km  aggregated circuit length in distribution grids > 1,000,000 km

 different approaches for modeling and simulating transmission and distribution grids • transmission grid simulations rely on explicit grid model • distribution grid simulations based on representative model grids

source: enet

map of German low voltage network operators

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Positive Effekte von Energieeffizienz auf den deutschen Stromsektor

Calculation of network infrastructure costs > Determination of grid extension requirements and network costs for all voltage levels (0.4 kV – 380 kV) Transmission networks > Application of a detailed transmission’ grid model > Development of individual projects Distribution networks > Very large infrastructure > Use of a model network approach BERLIN, 10.09.2014 | Friedrich Seefeldt, Frederick Weston

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Positive Effekte von Energieeffizienz auf den deutschen Stromsektor

Costs of electricity production

BAU

19.2

Billion EUR2012

19.4 9.6

2012 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

BAU

2030

2050

70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

Billion EUR2012

70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

Power generation: renewables

WWF

19.2

2012 Nuclear power Kernkraft Natural Gas Erdgas GuD

14.1

2030 Lignite Braunkohle Other Sonstige

5.4 2050 Steinkohle Hard coal

BERLIN, 10.09.2014 | Friedrich Seefeldt, Frederick Weston

51.3 34.8 21.1

2012

Billion EUR2012

Billion EUR2012

Power generation: conventional

70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

2030

2050

WWF

21.1

2012 Wind Onshore Wind onshore Photovoltaic Photovoltaik Water Wasser

24.9

31.3

2030 2050 Wind Offshore Wind offshore Biomass / Biogas Biomasse / Biogas Geothermal Energy Geothermie

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Positive Effekte von Energieeffizienz auf den deutschen Stromsektor

Grid Extension requirements and their costs for the transmission network > Estimation of grid extension needs through iterative simulated powercircuit extensions in existing routes 1 > Increase of the specific grid infrastructure costs between 15-56% by 2050 (currently € 1.4 / MWh) > Energy efficiency measures reduce load and feed-in and reduce the required grid extension (through reduced transportation needs)

BERLIN, 10.09.2014 | Friedrich Seefeldt, Frederick Weston

14000

Investment costs for the expansion of the transmission network 11.459 Mio. €

Mio. € 12000 10000 8000

6.765 Mio. €

6000 4000 2.344 Mio. € 2000 0 2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

BAU

Effizienz plus

Energiekonzept

WWF

2060

1 The approach took into account technical constraints different from the

network development plan (e.g. no study of dynamic stability).

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Positive Effekte von Energieeffizienz auf den deutschen Stromsektor

Specific costs of the power system Even with decreasing power consumption, electricity costs per MWh remain approximately stable on a medium and long term, although the costs of the power networks must be passed on to a lower consumption. 2050

Offshore OffshoreNetzanbindung network connection

122 118 119 118 11 11 12 15

Verteilungnetz Distribution network Übertragungsnetz Transmission network

BERLIN, 10.09.2014 | Friedrich Seefeldt, Frederick Weston

Stromerzeugung Power generation

WWF

Energiekonzept

Effizienz plus

106 102 102 100 BAU

WWF

Energiekonzept

Effizienz plus

BAU

€2012/MWh 2035 180 160 140 119 115 116 121 120 13 12 12 15 100 80 60 102 99 100 103 40 20 0

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Positive Effekte von Energieeffizienz auf den deutschen Stromsektor

Overall costs of the power system In 2050 the implementation of energy efficiency measures reduces annual costs throughout the whole power system by up to 28 billion euros.

2035

27

17

14

14

11 WWF

BERLIN, 10.09.2014 | Friedrich Seefeldt, Frederick Weston

51

43 5

Übertragungsnetz Transmission network

40

36

31

Erneuerbare Stromerzeugung Power generation (renew.)

10

8

7

5 WWF

32

Verteilungnetz Distribution network 50 5

Energiekonzept

34

39

44 5

56 5

Effizienz plus

52 6

BAU

55 6

Energiekonzept

71 6

Effizienz plus

65 7

OffshoreNetzanbindung netw. connection Offshore

2050

BAU

Bill. €2012 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

Konventionelle Power generation (conv.) Stromerzeugung

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Positive Effekte von Energieeffizienz auf den deutschen Stromsektor

Cost savings compared to the BAU scenario By 2050 based on the WWf scenario expenses of about 28 billion Euros can be saved compared to the BAU scenario. 40

Mrd. EUR2012

2050

2035

35

28

30 25

10

10

Verteilungnetz Distribution

21

21

20 15

Offshore netw. connection Offshore Netzanbindung

15

12

network

Übertragungsnetz Transmission

5

network

Erneuerbare Stromerzeugung Power generation (renew.)

BERLIN, 10.09.2014 | Friedrich Seefeldt, Frederick Weston

WWF

Energiekonzept

Effizienz plus

WWF

Energiekonzept

Effizienz plus

0 Konventionelle Stromerzeugung Power generation (conv.)

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Positive Effekte von Energieeffizienz auf den deutschen Stromsektor

Main conclusion > For four scenarios, the total cost of the current system were calculated (cost of electricity generation plus the cost of electricity transmission). > More efficient power systems require less conventional power plants, less renewable energy and less networks. > The cost per energy unit will remain stable also when the power consumption is decreasing. > Import dependency will be reduced. In 2050 Germany can save expenses for coal and gas imports worth up to € 1.8 billion a year. > In 2050, the most efficient power system can economise 28 billion € annually compared to the BAU scenario. BERLIN, 10.09.2014 | Friedrich Seefeldt, Frederick Weston

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