Positive effects of energy efficiency on the German electricity sector Main Conclusions Friedrich Seefeldt (Prognos), Frederick Weston (RAP)
IEPPEC BERLIN, 10 SEPTEMBER 2014
Effekte DER Energieeffizienz im Stromsektor the dark side of energy efficiency…
Berliner Energietage, 20.05.2014 | Friedrich Seefeldt (Prognos AG) & David Echternacht (IAEW)
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Effekte DER Energieeffizienz im Stromsektor
Energy Efficiency Scenarios [Electricity Consumption in TWh] 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2000
2005
2010
Reference scenario WWF RE Energy concept
2015
2020
BAU RE Reference RE WWF
2025
2030
2035
Efficiency plus RE BAU
Berliner Energietage, 20.05.2014 | Friedrich Seefeldt (Prognos AG) & David Echternacht (IAEW)
2040
2045
2050
Energy concept RE Efficiency plus
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Positive Effekte von Energieeffizienz auf den deutschen Stromsektor
Key data of the five scenarios BAU
Referenz
Effizienz plus
Energie konzept
WWF
Energy productivity growth (GDP/Primary energy consumption)
1,2 - 1,3 %/a
1,7 -1,9 %/a
2,0 - 2,2 %/a
2,3 -2,5 %/a
2,6 %/a
Annual change in electricity consumption
+0,3 %/a
-0,1 %/a
-0,3 bis - 0,4 %/a
-0,6 %/a
-0,9 %/a
Total change in electricity consumption by 2050 (relative to 2011)
+7 %
-5%
-10 - 15 %
-20 bis - 25 %
-40 %
Total change in electricity consumption by 2050 (relative to 2011)
+37 TWh
-22 TWh
-69 TWh
-117 TWh
-195 TWh
36 %
55 %
46 %
Number of e-vehicles
17 Mio.
25 Mio.
21 Mio.
Electricity consumption of e-vehicles (TWh)
34 TWh
53 TWh
28 TWh
Efficiency development
Mio. €
E-Mobility (values 2050) Share of e-vehicles (passenger cars)
BERLIN, 10.09.2014 | Friedrich Seefeldt, Frederick Weston
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Positive Effekte von Energieeffizienz auf den deutschen Stromsektor
Tasks and Procedure 600
519
556
500
449 402 324
400 300 200 100
Calculating the costs of electricity production: > Conventional power plants > Renewable Energies
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
0
BAU Energiekonzept
Effizienz plus WWF
4 Power consumption scenarios : > Time horizon up to 2050 > Comparison of BAU scenario with three efficiency scenarios
BERLIN, 10.09.2014 | Friedrich Seefeldt, Frederick Weston
Calculating the costs of electricity distribution: > Transmission networks > Distribution networks
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modelling the costs of the grid German transmission grid operated by 4 transmission system operators (TSO) more than 800 distribution system operators in Germany (DSO)
circuit length of German transmission grid around 35,000 km aggregated circuit length in distribution grids > 1,000,000 km
different approaches for modeling and simulating transmission and distribution grids • transmission grid simulations rely on explicit grid model • distribution grid simulations based on representative model grids
source: enet
map of German low voltage network operators
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Positive Effekte von Energieeffizienz auf den deutschen Stromsektor
Calculation of network infrastructure costs > Determination of grid extension requirements and network costs for all voltage levels (0.4 kV – 380 kV) Transmission networks > Application of a detailed transmission’ grid model > Development of individual projects Distribution networks > Very large infrastructure > Use of a model network approach BERLIN, 10.09.2014 | Friedrich Seefeldt, Frederick Weston
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Positive Effekte von Energieeffizienz auf den deutschen Stromsektor
Costs of electricity production
BAU
19.2
Billion EUR2012
19.4 9.6
2012 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
BAU
2030
2050
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Billion EUR2012
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Power generation: renewables
WWF
19.2
2012 Nuclear power Kernkraft Natural Gas Erdgas GuD
14.1
2030 Lignite Braunkohle Other Sonstige
5.4 2050 Steinkohle Hard coal
BERLIN, 10.09.2014 | Friedrich Seefeldt, Frederick Weston
51.3 34.8 21.1
2012
Billion EUR2012
Billion EUR2012
Power generation: conventional
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
2030
2050
WWF
21.1
2012 Wind Onshore Wind onshore Photovoltaic Photovoltaik Water Wasser
24.9
31.3
2030 2050 Wind Offshore Wind offshore Biomass / Biogas Biomasse / Biogas Geothermal Energy Geothermie
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Positive Effekte von Energieeffizienz auf den deutschen Stromsektor
Grid Extension requirements and their costs for the transmission network > Estimation of grid extension needs through iterative simulated powercircuit extensions in existing routes 1 > Increase of the specific grid infrastructure costs between 15-56% by 2050 (currently € 1.4 / MWh) > Energy efficiency measures reduce load and feed-in and reduce the required grid extension (through reduced transportation needs)
BERLIN, 10.09.2014 | Friedrich Seefeldt, Frederick Weston
14000
Investment costs for the expansion of the transmission network 11.459 Mio. €
Mio. € 12000 10000 8000
6.765 Mio. €
6000 4000 2.344 Mio. € 2000 0 2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
BAU
Effizienz plus
Energiekonzept
WWF
2060
1 The approach took into account technical constraints different from the
network development plan (e.g. no study of dynamic stability).
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Positive Effekte von Energieeffizienz auf den deutschen Stromsektor
Specific costs of the power system Even with decreasing power consumption, electricity costs per MWh remain approximately stable on a medium and long term, although the costs of the power networks must be passed on to a lower consumption. 2050
Offshore OffshoreNetzanbindung network connection
122 118 119 118 11 11 12 15
Verteilungnetz Distribution network Übertragungsnetz Transmission network
BERLIN, 10.09.2014 | Friedrich Seefeldt, Frederick Weston
Stromerzeugung Power generation
WWF
Energiekonzept
Effizienz plus
106 102 102 100 BAU
WWF
Energiekonzept
Effizienz plus
BAU
€2012/MWh 2035 180 160 140 119 115 116 121 120 13 12 12 15 100 80 60 102 99 100 103 40 20 0
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Positive Effekte von Energieeffizienz auf den deutschen Stromsektor
Overall costs of the power system In 2050 the implementation of energy efficiency measures reduces annual costs throughout the whole power system by up to 28 billion euros.
2035
27
17
14
14
11 WWF
BERLIN, 10.09.2014 | Friedrich Seefeldt, Frederick Weston
51
43 5
Übertragungsnetz Transmission network
40
36
31
Erneuerbare Stromerzeugung Power generation (renew.)
10
8
7
5 WWF
32
Verteilungnetz Distribution network 50 5
Energiekonzept
34
39
44 5
56 5
Effizienz plus
52 6
BAU
55 6
Energiekonzept
71 6
Effizienz plus
65 7
OffshoreNetzanbindung netw. connection Offshore
2050
BAU
Bill. €2012 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Konventionelle Power generation (conv.) Stromerzeugung
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Positive Effekte von Energieeffizienz auf den deutschen Stromsektor
Cost savings compared to the BAU scenario By 2050 based on the WWf scenario expenses of about 28 billion Euros can be saved compared to the BAU scenario. 40
Mrd. EUR2012
2050
2035
35
28
30 25
10
10
Verteilungnetz Distribution
21
21
20 15
Offshore netw. connection Offshore Netzanbindung
15
12
network
Übertragungsnetz Transmission
5
network
Erneuerbare Stromerzeugung Power generation (renew.)
BERLIN, 10.09.2014 | Friedrich Seefeldt, Frederick Weston
WWF
Energiekonzept
Effizienz plus
WWF
Energiekonzept
Effizienz plus
0 Konventionelle Stromerzeugung Power generation (conv.)
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Positive Effekte von Energieeffizienz auf den deutschen Stromsektor
Main conclusion > For four scenarios, the total cost of the current system were calculated (cost of electricity generation plus the cost of electricity transmission). > More efficient power systems require less conventional power plants, less renewable energy and less networks. > The cost per energy unit will remain stable also when the power consumption is decreasing. > Import dependency will be reduced. In 2050 Germany can save expenses for coal and gas imports worth up to € 1.8 billion a year. > In 2050, the most efficient power system can economise 28 billion € annually compared to the BAU scenario. BERLIN, 10.09.2014 | Friedrich Seefeldt, Frederick Weston
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