Population in India The final population figure for the March 2001 Indian census was 1,029 million people. Between 1991 and 2001 the population increased by more than 182 million, compared to 163 million in the previous decade. India’s RegistrarGeneral estimates that by 2035 the country’s population will rise to 1.46 billion, taking it ahead of China in the world population league.

The 2001 census The 2001 census was the fourteenth in India, with the first enumeration having taken place in 1871 when the population count was 211 million. In the latest census, two million enumerators visited 650,000 villages, 5,500 towns and scores of cities. This huge exercise drew many accusations of fraud and political manipulation. For example, the Muslim League claim that Muslims have been undercounted in Bombay and other areas as part of a conspiracy to conceal the real strength of the Muslim community in the country. Syed Shahbuddin, a former MP and editor of Muslim Monthly, said: ‘Politics in India has always revolved around numbers, and by undercounting the Muslims in a certain part of India you distort reality and thus you affect the welfare and development programs in the country.' The final census figure for March 2001 was 1,028,610,328 of which 532,156,772 were males and 496,453,556 were females. This gave a ratio of 933 females per 1,000 males. The total number of households was 193,579,954 with an average number of people per household of 5.3. India supports 16.7 per cent of the world’s population on approximately 2.4 per cent of the global land area. India has more people than all of Africa and also more than North 2 America and South America together. Its population density has increased steadily from 77 per km in 1901 to 216 2 2 2 per km in 1981, 267 per km in 1991 and 324 per km in 2001 (Figure 1). Figure 1. Population density of India in 2001.

These increases have had significant implications for the population/resources relationship in the country. India is one of the most densely populated countries in the world. Particular points of interest with regard to the density and distribution of population include the following:

• •

2

The capital, Delhi, has a population density of 9,294 per km , making it the tenth most densely populated city in the world. 2 Among the major states West Bengal is the most densely populated at 904/km , followed by Bihar 2 2 2 2 2 (880/km ), Kerala (819/km ), Uttar Pradesh (689/km ), Punjab (482/km ) and Tamil Nadu (478/km ). 2 Arunachal Pradesh, in the extreme northeast of the country, is the least densely populated state (13/km ).

• • • •

Uttar Pradesh has the largest population with more people than the whole of the neighbouring country of Pakistan. Seventeen states (out of 28 states) have a population of more than 20 million each and account for almost 95 per cent of the total population of the country. Five states – Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Bihar, West Bengal and Andhra Pradesh make up 48.5 per cent of the population. Ten ‘hill states’ in the northeast and north each contribute less than 1 per cent to the total population of India. Of this group the lowest is Sikkim (0.05 per cent) and the highest is Jammu & Kashmir (0.98 per cent).

The population is mostly Hindu (83 per cent) but India also has a Muslim population of over 120 million (12 per cent), one of the largest Muslim populations in the world. The population also includes Christians, Sikhs, Jains, Buddhists and Parsis. Tribal people account for 84 million of the population. The Washington-based Population Reference Bureau (PRB) produces annual estimates for each country of the world across a range of demographic variables. Figure 2 shows much of the data for India and the UK from the PRB’s 2005 Population data sheet. Figure 2. Demographic comparison of the UK and India.

Demographic transition in India At the beginning of the twentieth century, endemic disease, periodic epidemics and famines ensured that the death rate was at a level close to the high birth rate (Figures 3 and 4). For example, between 1911 and 1921 the birth and death rates were virtually equal at about 45 per 1,000. However, after this time, the impact of medical advances, especially mass inoculation, resulted in a steady decline in the death rate. Thus, significant population growth in India began in the 1920s as the country moved from Stage 1 to Stage 2 of demographic transition. Between 1921 and 1931, the population grew by 10 per cent. In the 1930s and 1940s, population growth was around 13 per cent per decade; in the 1950s, it was almost 20 per cent; in the 1960s and 1970s, it was 22 per cent; in the 1980s, it was over 21 per cent and in the 1990s, it was 20 per cent (Figure 5). Figure 3. Line graph showing birth and death rates in India 1901–2001.

Figure 4. Mortality and fertility rates by intercensal decade. Decade

Life expectancy at birth Male Female

Crude death rate (per 1,000)

Crude birth rate (per 1,000)

Total fertility per woman

1881–91

26.3

27.2

37.2

46.4

5.81

1891–1901

22.2

23.4

43.9

45.7

5.78

1901–11

25.3

25.5

40.3

45.9

5.77

1911–21

21.8

22.0

45.4

45.1

5.75

1921–31

29.6

30.1

34.9

45.4

5.86

1931–41

29.5

29.6

33.2

46.5

5.98

1941–51

31.0

31.8

32.4

44.9

5.96

1951–61

36.8

36.6

25.9

45.5

6.11

1961–71

44.0

43.0

21.3

43.5

6.50

1971–81

50.0

49.0

16.0

38.0

5.40

1981–91

55.5

56.0

13.6

35.0

4.60

1991–2001

60.8

62.3

9.3

28.2

3.50

Figure 5. Census statistics for India 1871–2001. Year Population Increment Average (millions) (millions) annual growth rate (per cent)

Per cent aged Population sex ratio 0–14 15– 45+ (males per 44 1,000 females)

Per cent urban

1871

211.7

—

—

1059

—

—

—

8.7

1881

213.5

1.8

0.08

1039

38.4

47.0

14.6

9.3

1891

234.0

20.5

0.92

1039

38.8

46.5

14.7

9.4

1901

238.3

4.3

0.18

1029

38.0

46.9

15.1 10.8

1911

252.0

13.7

0.56

1038

37.8

47.0

15.2 10.3

1921

251.2

–0.8

–0.03

1047

38.7

45.9

15.4 11.2

1931

278.9

27.7

1.05

1053

38.5

46.0

15.5 12.0

1941

318.5

39.6

1.33

1058

39.1

44.3

16.5 13.9

1951

361.0

42.5

1.25

1057

38.4

45.1

16.5 17.3

1961

439.1

78.1

1.96

1063

41.0

43.1

15.9 18.0

1971

548.2

109.1

2.22

1075

41.9

41.9

16.2 19.9

1981

683.3

135.1

2.20

1071

39.5

43.2

17.2 23.3

1991

846.3

163.0

2.14

1076

37.2

44.9

17.9 25.7

2001

1028.6

182.3

1.93

1072

34.4

47.1

18.5 27.8

Although the birth rate has been declining since the 1960s, marking the movement of India into Stage 3 of demographic transition, it was only from 1991 to 2001 that it dropped significantly faster than the death rate. However, the progress of demographic transition varies considerably by region, with the south of the country leading the way towards Stage 4 of the demographic transition model. Fertility in Kerala and Tamil Nadu has already fallen to about replacement level. According to the Registrar-General of India, the country’s population reached 1 billion on Thursday 11 May 2000, with the birth of a baby girl in a Delhi hospital. An estimated 42,000 children are born in India each day. In 2001, the birth rate was 24.79/1,000 and the death rate was 8.88/1,000.

Figure 6. Map showing percentage decadal growth of population 1991–2001.

The fall in mortality between 1947 (the year of Independence) and 1970 was due to considerable progress in the battle against several major communicable diseases, along with the absence of major famines. In the last three decades, both the death rate and the infant mortality rate have almost halved, while life expectancy has increased from 50 to 62 years. During this period, there were considerable further advances against communicable diseases such as gastroenteritis, tetanus, dysentery, polio and leprosy. However, there are considerable variations within the country. For example, urban males have a life expectancy of six years more than their rural counterparts. It is likely that the spread of HIV/AIDS will slow the overall rate of mortality decline in India. Outside South Africa, India has the most people living with HIV – an estimated 5.1 million in 2003. However, only 0.9 per cent of the population of India are HIV-positive compared to over 21 per cent in South Africa. In a 2001 behavioural study, only 75 per cent of the population of India had heard of AIDS and rural women’s AIDS awareness was particularly low.

Fertility decline Fertility has fallen from around six births per female in 1970 to half that level in 2001, albeit with widespread variations around the country (Figure 7).

Figure 7. Fertility levels across India in 2001.

Desired family size has decreased for a range of reasons, the most important of which are:

• • • • •

Improving levels of education Economic changes Continuing urbanisation The steady decline in infant and child mortality The influence of the media.

Education, especially female literacy, is the key to lower fertility. With education comes a knowledge of birth control, greater social awareness, more opportunity for employment and a wider choice of actions generally. Educated women also marry later, which widens the age gap between successive generations. According to the 2001 census, the overall adult literacy rate was 64.8 per cent, with male literacy at 75.3 per cent and female literacy at 53.7 per cent. An important factor hindering education is the poor pupil-teacher ratio with one teacher for every 43 pupils.

Figure 8. Map of regional variations in female literacy in 2001.

Fertility has decreased at all ages:

• •

For younger women mainly because of an increase in the average age of marriage. For older women through family planning (mainly sterilisation).

The result of both trends is a very short time-span of childbearing in some states. The fall in fertility began in the coastal areas of south India. The south has relatively high education standards and has been much more successful in providing its population with access to safe, affordable and reliable methods of contraception. Fertility has decreased to about replacement level in Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Professor Tim Dyson, in his book Twenty-first Century India, argues that lower fertility will benefit the poor, particularly poor women by:

• • • • •

Making it easier to deliver better quality education to the population Reducing urban growth Decreasing the growth of the labour force Making it easier to provide a better quality of urban life Reducing pressure on environmental resources.

The regional variation in fertility is so great that, in the next twenty-five years, over half of population growth will be in the states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. These states have large agricultural and mainly rural populations. However, although regional fertility variation is likely to persist for some time, a trend towards broad convergence between the states is under way. The progress of family planning amongst India’s poor suffered a major setback in the 1970s, during the governmentsponsored mass sterilisation campaign when illiterate people were duped or paid to have vasectomies or the removal of their fallopian tubes. The emphasis now is on educating women and making contraception available, but sex education is still not taught in schools.

Contraceptive acceptance and their continued use depends on ensuring safe and good quality services. In India, reproductive tract infections are widely prevalent. If untreated, serious complications such as sterility and stillbirth can result. In some parts of India, fear of sterility and delayed childbearing are significant barriers to contraceptive acceptance. Other reasons for the high population growth are the unmet need for contraception and the high infant mortality rate in some states.

Age structure The age structure of the population is undergoing considerable change (Figure 9). However, more than half of India’s population is still below 25 years of age. For the next 35–40 years, India will have far more people in the reproductive age group than in the dependent age group. As fertility declines, the proportion of the population under 15 years of age will fall. It has been estimated that the median age of the population will increase from about 22 years to 31 years in 2026. During the same time period, India’s population that is aged 60 years and over is projected to increase from 7 per cent to 11 per cent. But because of the considerable drop in the proportion of the younger population, the overall dependency ratio will fall significantly. Figure 9. A population pyramid of India.

Imbalanced sex ratio As well as being one of the most highly populated countries in the world, India also has the highest sex ratio. The 2001 census shows that the sex ratio for children up to six years old has declined, from 945 females per 1,000 males in 1991 to 927 females per 1,000 males. This fall has occurred in spite of government action, such as outlawing sex determination tests and banning gender-selective abortions. It is clear that female foeticide remains widespread with many girls also killed in infancy. Since the ban on gender-selective abortions, many families are resorting to traditional methods such as herbal poisons. A recent research project claims that 90 per cent of the estimated 3.5 million abortions each year in India are on female foetuses. Until recently it was generally believed that the preference for male children was much stronger in rural than urban areas. However the 2001 census showed that in Delhi the sex ratio for children up to six years had fallen to 865 girls to 1,000 boys.

Figure 10. Map showing regional variations in sex ratios.

Indian families are far from alone in having a strong preference for male children. According to an article in The Times in June 2004, ‘Large areas of Asia seem to be going through a vast demographic shift that is unprecedented in history’. The main reason for the strong preference for male children in India is the dowry tradition. Although now against the law, it remains widespread. Finding enough money for an acceptable dowry is a huge cost for poor families with daughters. Additional factors responsible for the preference for male children are the prestige gained from having a male child and the need for wage earners, particularly in the countryside. The government is faced with a problem in the northern states. It wants to launch new sharply focused familyplanning programmes in this area, in an attempt to replicate the significantly lower rate of population growth in the southern states. However, such a measure may further strengthen the preference for male children. However, there are consequences of an unbalanced sex ratio. The inability to find a female partner can cause serious emotional difficulties for the males concerned and also create considerable problems for society as a whole. The latter arguably include:

• • • • • •

Higher crime rates and violence as societies become unstable due to sex imbalance Forced marriages Girls stolen for wives Bigamy Prostitution Increasing incidences of rape.

Urban growth In 2001, 35 cities recorded a population of more than one million people (Figure 11). Six of these had populations greater than 5 million. The three largest cities by a significant margin are Mumbai (16.4 million), Kolkata (13.2 million) and Delhi (12.8 million). The primary reason for the growth of towns and cities is natural increase in the urban areas themselves. Rural to urban migration is the second reason for urban growth. Seasonal urban migration also occurs throughout India when people move to cities during periods of hardship and return to their home villages for events such as the harvest.

Figure 11. India’s largest cities and urban areas. Rank

City / Urban Area

Population

1

Mumbai (Bombay)

16,368,000

2

Kolkata (Calcutta)

13,217,000

3

Delhi

12,791,000

4

Chennai

6,425,000

5

Bangalore

5,687,000

6

Hyderabad

5,534,000

7

Ahmadabad

4,519,000

8

Pune

3,756,000

9

Surat

2,811,000

10

Kanpur

2,690,000

11

Jaipur

2,324,000

12

Lucknow

2,267,000

13

Nagpur

2,123,000

14

Patna

1,707,000

15

Indore

1,639,044

16

Vadodara

1,492,000

17

Bhopal

1,455,000

18

Coimbatore

1,446,000

19

Ludhiana

1,395,000

20

Kochi

1,355,000

21

Visakhapatnam

1,329,000

22

Agra

1,321,000

23

Varanasi

1,212,000

24

Madurai

1,195,000

25

Meerut

1,167,000

26

Nashik

1,152,000

27

Jabalpur

1,117,000

28

Jamshedpur

1,102,000

29

Asansol

1,090,000

30

Dhanbad

1,064,000

31

Faridabad

1,055,000

32

Allahabad

1,050,000

33

Amritsar

1,011,000

34

Vijayawada

1,011,000

35

Rajkot

1,002,000

Source: India’s national census of 2001

The level of urbanisation is projected to increase from around 28 per cent in 2001 to 36 per cent by 2026 when there will be nearly 70 ‘million-plus’ cities. These 70 cities could contain about half of all the country’s urban dwellers. The very largest urban areas, Delhi and Greater Mumbai, will probably have reached the 30 million mark. A significant proportion of the urban population are slum dwellers. Figure 12 shows some of the key details recorded about India’s urban slums in the 2001 census.

Figure 12. Information about slums from the census of 2001.

International migration International migration is very low compared to the size of India’s population and it is thought that this situation will continue in the future. However, the numbers going to North America, Europe and Australia are likely to continue to rise, as will the numbers of people coming into India from Bangladesh and Nepal.

Population policy In 2000, the National Population Policy (NPP) stated its long-term objective: ‘to achieve a stable population by 2045, at a level consistent with the requirements of sustainable economic growth, social development, and environmental protection’. The medium-term aim of NPP is to lower the total fertility rate to the replacement level of 2.1 by 2010. Nine states and union territories including Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Punjab have already reduced their fertility to replacement level. These states make up about 15 per cent of the population. A further ten states with around 41 per cent of India’s population are predicted to achieve replacement fertility rates by 2010. The NPP also aims to reduce the infant mortality rate to 30/1,000 by 2010 and to bring the maternal mortality rate down to 100/100,000 by the same year. Conclusion Because India still has a fairly young age structure, it is almost certain that the population will rise by at least another 500 million in the coming decades. This will present the country with considerable economic, social, environmental and political challenges.