Population Growth, Changes in Land Use and Environmental Degradation in India By Ms. Soumya Mohanty, Research Scholar, IIPS. E-mail: [email protected]

ABSTRACT This paper makes an attempt to study the trend in population growth, socioeconomic development, and changes in land use highlighting the extent to which land under forest have declined over time and across states of India. It is hypothesized that urbanization is likely to be associated with increased land utilization for non-agricultural purposes and density of population with intensity of cropping pattern. The study reveals that there is a phenomenal increase in population and urbanization. The population increase has taken place even in relatively land abundant and semi-arid states such as Rajasthan and Gujarat. However, from this study we did not find strong support for either of the hypotheses. The paper stresses that land use data produced by Indian government sources should be strengthened and publication should be made timely. The paper also reviewed the existing policies for controlling population and preventing forest land degradation and environmental pollution.

Population Growth, Changes in Land Use and Environmental Degradation in India Introduction The twentieth century has been a century of unprecedented population growth, economic development and environmental change. For which there has been extensive debate worldwide on the relationship between population growth, depletion of resources and environmental degradation in the past few years. The world population grew by four times from 1.6 billion to 6.1 billion persons during 1900 to 2000 (United Nations, 2001). Decreases in famine related deaths and infant mortality rates are partially responsible for this rapid population growth. In addition, advances in public health and medicine have increased the life expectancy of countries worldwide. Industrialization has provided for better economies and has sustained human development. However, this rapid population growth and development has occurred unevenly throughout the world simultaneously with increasingly unsustainable utilization of world’s natural resources and its adverse impact on environment. Population and environment are closely related in a complex and dynamic manner and this relationship is mediated by number of socioeconomic, cultural, political, and developmental aspects whose role varies considerably from one context to other (Richards, 1986). Thus, the rapid growth of human population is often identified as one of the main factors behind environmental degradation. Population affects the environment mainly through changes in land use1 and industrial metabolism2 (Turner and Meyer, 1991). These two categories are not mutually exclusive and capture the critical processes that drive most environmental changes. To under stand these processes of environmental change in developing countries, it is critical to analyze land-use changes and the factors underlying them. In this context, the question about the impact of population growth with limited and often degraded resources is most relevant for developing country like India. During the last few decades there has been phenomenal increase in population in India and it has taken place even in relatively land abundant arid and semi-arid states such as Rajasthan and Gujarat. India accounts for 18 percent of world population, and is growing at 1.93 percent per annum. India supports its population with only 2.3 percent of the world’s land area and 1.7 percent of the world’s forest. In India, by mid-nineties, more than 85 percent of the cultivable area had already been brought under cultivation. Taking into account the total land resources including hills, mountains, lakes, rivers and lands of all description, the availability of land per head in India comes to only 0.58 hectares.

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Land-use changes refer to alterations or change in the land surface and its biotic cover for this study. Industrial metabolism refers to the flow of energy and materials through the extraction-production-consumption-disposal chain.

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Even though India recognized the problem of rapid population growth soon after independence, it has limited success in controlling its growth rate. The consequences of such population growth for India span three areas; changes in land use, increase in toxic chemical released to the environment and depletion of natural resources. As population increases, this expanded growth begins to distort our environment, leaving what scientists call an ecological footprint. This concept draws upon the idea that each person has certain basic needs such as land, water and energy use. As these resources are used, wastes are generated and disposed of. Thus, the extent of resource exploitation, waste generation and environmental damage relies on that society’s lifestyles and pattern of consumption. According to Mishra (2002), population density has positive and significant impact on agricultural intensification over the decade in India even after controlling the regional differences in agro climatic conditions. India’s massive population base of which ample number are living below poverty line, non sustainable agricultural and industrial practices, and relatively small scope for further expansion of agricultural land, make it all the more important to understand the relationship between population pressure, changes in land use and environmental degradation in the country. Apart from the known effects of urbanization on global warming, acid rain and ozone depletion, it is also claimed that urbanization has serious impact on the availability of arable land and subsequently leading to deforestation in several parts of the world. It is contended that resource depletion risks are also higher in the urban areas due to supply of large quantities of food, water and fuel into cities and moving out sewage and other wastes are not only logistically complex, but also a resource-consuming exercise. As Lester and Jacobson (1987) notes, ‘the waste output of even a small city can quickly overtax the absorptive capacity of local terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems’. With these concerns the present paper makes an attempt to study the trend in population growth, socioeconomic development, and changes in land use highlighting the extent to which land under forest have declined over time and across states of India. It is hypothesized that urbanization is likely to be associated with increased land utilization for non-agricultural purposes and density of population with intensity of cropping pattern. Data and Methods For the present study data set complied from various secondary sources are used to study the levels, trends and differentials for India and its states. It includes information on population growth, urbanization, land use pattern, socioeconomic and agricultural variables. Most of the demographic and socioeconomic data are taken from Census publications (Registrar General of India) for different time periods under study. The land use classification data are compiled from various reports of the Indian Ministry of Agriculture and forest data are compiled from various reports published by Indian Ministry of Environment and Forests. In the analysis cropping intensity is measured as the ratio of grossed crop area to net cropped area multiplied by 100. Population density, measured as number of persons per square kilometer, is used as an

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indication of population pressure. The most common measure of urbanization i.e. the level of urbanization is measured by the percentage of the population living in the urban areas. The indicators of social development are: (1) literacy rate, measured as percent literates in the total population; (2) percentage of schedule caste and schedule tribe population in each state ; and (3) sex-ratio of literates, measured as female literates per 1000 male literates. The indicators of economic development are: (1) non-agricultural labour force, measured as the percentage of workers in the non-agricultural sectors; (2) per-capita income; and (3) BPL (below poverty line) population, measured as percentage of population living below the poverty line. Regression analyses are carried out to estimate for changes in cropping intensity and forest degradation by using different demographic and socioeconomic variables. However, the final paper will discuss about the data used in this paper, and the methodological issues while analyzing the trend of population growth and changes in land use. Trends of Population Growth in India, 1951-2001 At the time of its independence in 1947, India’s population was about 345 million. The decades following the 1940s have seen great changes. Even the poorest people experienced some improvements in their living conditions. For example, average levels of calorie availability and income have risen. Water supplies and sanitation facilities and rural electrification have well progressed. In addition, the control of certain communicable diseases has been important. Thus the reduction in the death rate after 1947 resulted in a significant rise in the rate of population growth, which reached almost 2 percent during 1951-61. In this context, India’s population growth after independence can be classified into the following two phases: 1951-1981: Rapid high growth 1981-2001: High growth with sure signs of slowing down of the growth rate. Table 1: Trends of Population Growth in India, 1951-2001 Census Year

Total

Population in Million Rural Urban

1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001

361.1 436.4 547.9 685.1 838.5 1028.6

298.7 360.3 439.1 523.9 628.7 741.7

62.4 77.8 109.0 159.7 215.7 285.3

Growth rate of Population

Population Density

1.96 2.20 2.22 2.14 1.93

117 142 173 216 267 312

Source: Census of India, 2001.

It needs to be noted that during the decade of 1981-91, the population of India increased by 23.86 percent and the average annual exponential growth rate was 2.14 percent per annum. It was lower than that observed during 1971-81. It can be further noted that the lowering of the population growth has continued during 1991-2001, with the average annual exponential growth rate being 1.93 percent per annum. the population of rural India increased around two and half times from 298.7 million in 1951 to 741.7 million in 2001, where as the urban population has grown more than four fold during the same period, which is

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from only 62.4 million in 1951 to 285.3 million in 2001. The density of population has increased from 117 in 1951 to 312 persons in 2001. Despite the fall in the growth rate; the absolute addition to the population is quite high over the decades, because of the age structure of the population, which is still fairly young. According to the standard projection, India's population will increase from 1027 million to 1419 million during 2001-26, a total rise of 38 percent or 1.3 percent per year (Dyson, 2004). The projections also suggest that by 2026 the average population density of India will be 448 persons per square kilometer. States like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh are projected to be well over 900 persons per square kilometer, greater than the density of both Kerala and West Bengal in 2001. In the standard run projection it is clear that migration will have an appreciable effect upon future population growth for certain states. For example, in the standard run Maharashtra’s population in 2026 is larger by 4.1 million because of the assumption of continuing net in-migration. The implication is that such migration will be responsible for about 15 percent of the state’s total demographic growth during 2001-26. Thus, for India's population growth these projection figures clearly give an idea regarding future demand for various resources, population pressure on land and the consequences of current demographic trends in terms of environmental degradation. Urbanization and Socioeconomic Development in India Urbanization, involving a change in pattern of human settlements, is by far the most important social transformation that has taken place in recent times. However, the degree of urbanization in India varied considerably over the decades. India has 62.4 million urban population at the 1951 census, and this number has increased to 285.3 million in 2001. In other words, its urban population has increased to almost five times during the last fifty years. In recent years, approximately 6-7 million persons have been added every year to the country’s total population. Table 2: Trend of Urbanization in India, 1951-2001 Tempo of Urbanization Annual rate Annual Annual gain of gain in exponential in percent percent growth rate urban urban

Census Year

Number of UAs/ Town

Urban Population (in million)

Percent Urban

Decennial Growth rate of urban population

1951 1961 1971 1981 1991

2,843 2,365 2,590 3,378 3,768

62.44 78.94 109.11 159.46 217.18

17.29 17.97 19.91 23.34 25.72

41.42 26.41 38.23 46.14 36.19

3.47 2.34 3.24 3.79 3.09

0.34 0.07 0.19 0.34 0.24

2.48 0.39 1.08 1.72 1.02

2001

4,378

286.12

27.86

31.74

2.76

0.21

0.83

Source: Census of India, 2001.

States like Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra were the most urbanized major states in 2001 followed by Gujarat. Karnataka and Punjab were the only other states with levels of urbanization significantly above

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the national average in 2001 (Map 1). It is clear that the southern and western states of India are generally more urban than those in the north and east. Levels of urbanization are particularly low in Assam, Bihar, Orissa, and, to a lesser extent Uttar Pradesh. During 1991 to 2001 most states experienced only modest gain in percent urban. States like Gujarat, Haryana, Karnataka, Punjab and Maharashtra all experienced fairly strong rises due to the comparative socio-economic advancement of these states. The most important dimension in the process of urbanization in the country relates to the shifting importance of the different states. Fuelled by continuous movement of people from one part of the country to another and by no less important factor of differential natural increase some states and districts have attained high levels of urbanization while others have not been able to reach even the 1951 national level of urbanization. Thus the level of urbanization in India is on rise and it has to deal with problems of land intrusions on productive agricultural lands. This is because urban land-uses persistently compete with rural land-uses on the basis of more favourable land rent in free market. Again, higher level of urbanization would automatically lead to greater proportion of area under non-agricultural uses. In this context issues relating to the subject of resources generates a somewhat different meaning, as it relates not only to resource exhaustion or depletion but also equally to its under-use, over-use, and often even its misuse. Later this aspect is discussed with some illustrations with specific context of urbanization and environmental degradation. Socio-economic development is believed to be critical of both population planning and wise management and use of resources for a country. The literacy rates have increased in all most all the states of India from 1951 to 2001 (Census, 2001). This increase in literacy has been faster in the western states of Gujarat, Maharashtra and, southern states like Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu. The prosperous states like Punjab and Haryana and the northeastern states of Mizoram and Tripura have also experienced a relatively rapid increase in literacy. However, schedule castes (SC) and schedule tribes (ST) tend to be less educated, more traditional, and economically backward than others. The proportion of SC/ST in a state is expected to be negatively correlated with overall level of development. Moreover, schedule castes and tribes have distinctly different patterns of consumption and utilization of resources. Thus, the proportion of SC/ST in a state is included as an indicator of socioeconomic development. It is found that areas of higher population pressure have relatively lower proportion of SC/ST population. The proportion of the workers in nonagricultural sector is an indicator of economic development in a state. States like Gujarat, Maharashtra, Kerala and Tamil Nadu have relatively high proportion of workers engaged in nonagricultural sector. The spatial pattern in nonagricultural employment has remained more or less static since 1951. The percentage population living in urban areas also reflects the level of economic and infrastructural development in a state. However there is no clear spatial association between socioeconomic development and level of population pressure. According to Dyson (2004), former Uttar Pradesh will be the fastest growing state with the annual rate of growth amount to 1.16

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percent despite net out-migration followed by Bihar in 2021-6. It can be inferred that in future the level of population pressure will also remain high in the economically backward states of India. In recent decades, poverty and environmental degradation have been increasingly linked. The poor have not only suffered disproportionately from environmental damage, but have they become major cause of ecological stress. Pushed into fragile lands due to population growth and inequitable income distribution patterns many of the poor have over-exploited local resource base. Short-term strategies such as slashand-burn agriculture, abbreviated fallow periods, depletion of topsoil, and deforestation permit survival in the present but place enormous burdens upon future generation. In this context, there is a clear danger of India's continuing to show a pattern of divergent development, with parts of the country making progress in many fronts, and other parts stagnating. The percentage of India’s population living in absolute poverty has declined considerably over the decades. Rural poverty was higher than urban poverty by at least five percentage points in the 1970s and early 1980s. Figure 1 shows the below poverty line population in urban India and the estimated urban population for the period 1977-78 to 1999-2000. It is clear that with increasing level of urbanization population living below the poverty line has declined over the period of time in urban areas of India. Figure 1 Urban Population and Percentage of Urban Population Below Poverty Line (BPL) in India 60

BPL, Urban (in %)

50 40

131.91; 45.42 169.63; 40.79 191.93; 38.20

30

229.49; 32.36

20

270.77; 23.62

10 0 125

150

1977-78

175 200 225 Urban Population (in m illion) 1983

1987-88

1993-94

250

275

1999-2000

However, discrimination is often worse in the economically worst performing geographical areas. For example, larger states like Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Orissa and Madhya Pradesh have higher proportion of population living below the poverty line both in urban as well as in rural areas and these are also the states with slower economic growth and faster population growth, than the Indian average. However, poverty is related to a host of factors, including income, health and education and all these have significant impact on resource demand as well as proper utilization of resources. At one hand as a cause

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poverty contributes to environmental degradation and on the other due to deterioration of natural resources and unsafe living condition health of the poor people is also affected. Land Use Data at Regional Level: Before spelling out the relationship between population growth and land use, it appears appropriate to discuss about land use data. The areas for which data on land use classification are available, is known as the ‘reporting area’. The collection of land use data in India begins at the village level. In areas where the lad use classification figures are based on land records, the reporting area is the area according to village papers or records maintained by the village revenue agency and the data are based on complete enumeration of all the areas. In some cases, village papers are not maintained; but the estimates of the area under different classes of land are based on the sample survey or other methods to complete the coverage. Thus, the reporting area is the aggregate of the areas based on these two methods. The areas for which no statistics are available are called ‘non-reporting’ area. The whole of the reporting area is neither completely surveyed cadastrally nor completely covered by complete enumeration of sample surveys. The land utilization or land use statistics formed part of the agricultural statistics and the source for these data is the Ministry of Agriculture, which, however, collects primary data from individual state Authorities. The technical Committee on Co-ordination of Agricultural Statistics, set up in 1948 by the Ministry of Food & Agriculture, recommended a nine-fold land-use classification and also recommended standard concepts and definitions for all the states to follow for better comparability and comprehension. Prior to this land use statistics was collected and available in five categories: (i) forests; (ii) area not available cultivation; (iii) other uncultivated land excluding current fallows; (iv) fallow land and (v) net area sown. However, further detailing the existing categories formed the new categories. The statement below gives the nine-fold land-use classification. 1. Forests. - Area not available for cultivation, which includes: 2. Area under non-agricultural uses; 3. Barren and unculturable land. - Other uncultivated land excluding fallow land, which includes: 4. Permanent pastures and other grazing lands; 5. Miscellaneous tree crops and groves, not included in net area sown; 6. Culturable wasteland. - Fallow land, which includes: 7. Fallow lands, other than current fallows; 8. Current fallows. - And lastly: 9. Net area sown.

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Land use Pattern in India, 1950-51 to 1999-2000 The physical, economic and institutional framework taken together determines the pattern of land use of a country at any particular time. In other words, the existing land use pattern in different regions in India has been evolved as the result of the action and interaction of various factors taken together, such as the physical characteristics of land, the structure of resources like, capital and labour, available and the location of the region in relation to other aspects of economic development, e.g. those relating to transport as well as industry and trade. Table 3 depicts the land use trend based on these nine-fold classification from 1950-51 to 1999-2000. Table 3: Land Use Pattern in India, 1950-2000 In Million hectares

Classification 1950-51

1960-61

1970-71

1980-81

1990-91

1999-2000

Reporting Area for land Utilization statistics

284.32 (100.00)

298.46 (100.00)

303.76 (100.00)

304.15 (100.00)

304.86 (100.00)

306.54 (100.00)

1. Forest

40.48 (14.24)

54.05 (18.11)

63.91 (21.04)

67.47 (22.18)

67.80 (22.24)

69.02 (22.52)

2. Not available for cultivation

47.52 (16.71)

50.75 (17.00)

44.64 (14.70)

39.62 (13.03)

40.48 (13.28)

42.40 (13.83)

(a) Non Agricultural uses

9.36 (3.29)

14.84 (4.97)

16.48 (5.43)

19.66 (6.46)

21.09 (6.92)

22.40 (7.31)

(b) Barren and unculturable land

38.16 (13.42)

35.91 (12.03)

28.16 (9.27)

19.66 (6.46)

19.39 (6.36)

19.31 (6.20)

49.45 (17.39)

37.64 (12.61)

35.06 (11.54)

32.31 (10.62)

30.22 (9.91)

28.47 (9.29)

6.68 (2.35)

13.97 (4.68)

13.26 (4.37)

11.97 (3.94)

11.40 (3.74)

11.04 (3.60)

19.38 (6.82)

4.46 (1.49)

4.30 (1.42)

3.60 (1.18)

3.82 (1.25)

3.61 (1.18)

22.94 (8.07)

19.21 (6.44)

17.50 (5.76)

16.74 (5.50)

15.00 (4.92)

13.82 (4.51)

28.12 (9.89)

22.82 (7.65)

19.88 (6.54)

24.75 (8.14)

23.36 (7.66)

24.89 (8.12)

(a) Fallow land other than Current fallows

17.44 (6.13)

11.18 (3.75)

8.76 (2.88)

9.92 (3.26)

9.66 (3.17)

10.10 (3.29)

(b) Current Fallows

10.68 (3.76)

11.68 (3.91)

11.12 (3.66)

14.83 (4.88)

13.70 (4.49)

14.79 (4.82)

5. Net area sown (6-7)

118.75 (41.77)

133.20 (44.63)

140.27 (46.18)

140.00 (46.03)

143.00 (46.91)

141.23 (46.07)

6. Gross cropped area

131.89 (46.39)

152.77 (51.19)

165.79 (54.58)

172.63 (56.76)

185.74 (60.93)

189.74 (61.90)

7.Area sown more than once

13.14 (4.62)

19.57 (6.56)

25.52 (8.40)

32.63 (10.73)

42.74 (14.02)

48.51 (15.83)

3. Other uncultivated land (Excluding fallow land) (a) Permanent pastures and other grazing land (b) Land under Miscellaneous tree crops and groves not included in net area sown (c) Culturable Waste land 4. Fallow land

Note: Figures in parenthesis are percentages. Source: Statistical Abstract India, 1998 & 2004.

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The main conclusions emerging from the analysis regarding trend of land use in India during the period 1950-51 to 1999-2000 are as follows. Out of the total geographical area of 328 million hectares, the land use statistics were available for roughly 284 million hectares in 1950-51; however, in 1999-2000 the reporting area is around 306 million hectares. The non-reporting area is steadily declining from the year to year as a result of the special efforts made by the central and state governments. The non-reporting area is broadly of two types. First, there are hill tracts of Jammu and Kashmir and Arunachal Pradesh where there is very little cultivation and where, among other things, owing to the peculiar nature of the terrain, the collection of the annual agricultural statistics is not only very difficult but also costly. Secondly, there are small tracts in some states where owing to the absence of the survey agency or the village revenue agency or both, no regular statistics are collected. However, the non-reporting are in Jammu and Kashmir includes the area under illegal occupation of Pakistan and China, for which agricultural returns are nor available. Figure 2 Correspondence between Increase in reporting Area and Area Under Forest - 1950-51 to 1999-2000

Million hectares

350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1950-51

1960-61

1970-71

1980-81

1990-91

1999-2000

Years Reporting Area

Forest

Area under forests includes all lands classed as forest under any legal enactment dealing with forests or administered as forest, whether state-owned or private, and whether wooded or maintained as potential forest land (Map 2). The area of crops rose in the forest and grazing lands or areas open for grazing within the forests should remain included under the forest area. There has been perceptible increase in the forest area up to the year 1999-2000. It increased from 40.48 million hectares in 1950-51 to 69.02 million hectares in 1999-2000. In percentage terms, the area under forest, which constituted 14.24 percent of the reporting area, increased to 22.52 percent in 1999-2000. It is apparently indicative of a healthy land-use management. However, literature indicates that this is not suggestive of a real increase of area under forest but is due to incremental increase of reporting area under forest (Chadha et. el., 2004). That this observation is not without basis may be clearly observed from Figure 2.

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Area under non-agricultural use includes all lands occupied by buildings, roads, railways or under water, e.g. rivers and canals and other put to uses other than agriculture. Land put to non-agricultural uses increased by 11.73 million hectares during the reference period. This dose augurs well in our economy that is predominantly agricultural. Land is the primary resource for urban development. Indeed the process of urbanization is vitally linked with land. Over a period of time, as urbanization has proceeded, more and more lands have been brought within urban jurisdiction for meeting the fast increasing urban requirements. Thus, the increase in land under non-agricultural use may be attributed to rise in urban population as well as launching of development programmes/projects for boosting the economy of the country.

Figure 3 Changes in Land Under Non-Agricultural Use and Barren & Unculturable Land, 1950-51 to 1999-2000

In Million Hectare

45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1950-51

1960-61

1970-71 Year

Non-Agricultural Uses

1980-81

1990-91

1999-2000

Barren & Unculturable Land

Land like mountains, deserts, etc. which can not be brought under cultivation except at an exorbitant cost should be classed as unculturable whether such land is in isolated blocks or within cultivated holdings. The area under ‘Barren and unculturable land’ has substantially decreased by 18.77 million hectares during reference period. It came down to 19.39 million hectares in 1999-2000 from 38.16 million hectares in 1950-51. However, when the degree of correspondence between land under non-agricultural use and barren and unculturable land is seen; it is found that the degree of correspondence between the two categories is very high. So, the decline in barren and unculturable land can essentially be attributed to the increase in area under non-agricultural use, which can be seen from Figure 3. Fallow land other than current fallows includes all lands, which were taken up for cultivation but are temporarily out of cultivation for a period of not less than one year and not more than five years. The reasons for keeping such lands fallow may be one or more of the following reasons like poverty of the cultivators, inadequate supply of water, climate, silting of canals and rivers and unremunerative nature of

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farming. It witnessed a decrease of 7.34 million hectares from 1950-51 to 1999-2000, which is a sign of better utilization of land in the form of bringing it into cultivation. A reverse trend is observed in case of ‘current fallows’, which represents cropped areas, which are kept fallow during the current year. The trend of current fallow has been fluctuating; during the fifties to nineties the overall increase is around one percent only i.e. 4.1 million hectares. It is discouraging to note that in spite of massive efforts made by the Govt. to increase agricultural production, the area under ‘current fallows’, instead of decreasing, has slightly increased. However, it is encouraging that the area under ‘culturable waste’ decreased by 9.12 million hectares during 1950-510to 1999-2000, which by and large, might have been brought under cultivation. Land under miscellaneous tree crops and groves includes all cultivable land which is not included in ‘net area sown’ but is put to some agricultural uses. Land under thatching grasses; bamboo bushes and other groves for fuel, etc., which are not included under ‘orchards’ should be classed under this category (Map 3). It witnessed a steep decrease by 15.77 million hectares during the period 1950-51 to 1999-2000. It reveals that much of the tree crops and pastures representing common property resources have reduced in significance over time. Common property resources is important in terms of providing fuel supplies, grazing area, employment and income generation options for rural poor as they depend on it for their sustenance. However, the net area sown in 1999-2000 increased to 141.23 million hectares from 118.75 million hectares in 1950-51, witnessing an increase of 22.48 million hectares. In percentage terms, it increased from 41.77 percent of the ‘reporting area’ in 1950-51 to 46.07 percent in 1999-2000. Share of net area sown increased substantially in the fifties but during sixties and seventies, the share of net area sown increased only by two percentage points, then it has stagnated. The pressure for human beings on land is higher because the net area sown has been around 46 percent of the total reporting area, which has not changed much after seventies but increase in population has trebled. However, area sown more than once, on which crops are cultivated more than once during the agricultural year, has moved up sharply in the last fifty years from 13.14 million hectares to 48.51 million hectares. When we tried to regress the population density on the change in cropping intensity, it is not found statistically significant. This could be mainly due to the fact that there has been relatively little change in cropping intensity between 1951 and 2000. Environmental Degradation Population growth is a contributing factor to many type of environmental stress. The role of increasing population size is especially prominent as the major force driving the need to increase food production, and environmental stresses on water, forests, soil and air that stem from agriculture. The environmental challenges that the country faces are intrinsically connected with the state of environmental resources and poverty in its many dimensions and economic growth. While the plan documents have echoed India’s

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commitment to achieving sustainable development goals, the question that needs to be answered is whether this understanding and resolve have translated into concrete answers? The National Environmental Policy (MoEF, 2006) recognizes that ‘environmental degradation is a major casual factor in enhancing and perpetuating poverty, particularly among rural poor, as degradation impacts soil fertility, and quality of water, air, forest, wildlife, and fisheries’. The dependence of the rural poor, in particular, the tribal societies on their natural resources, especially biodiversity, is self-evident. The poor are particularly vulnerable to loss of resilience in ecosystem, which can result in certain groups of people being made destitute, even if overall, the economy shows strong growth. The per capita availability of cultivable land in India is meager and with the fast increasing population coupled with the area under nonagricultural uses availability of land will further shrink to very low level. The per capita availability of agricultural land in rural areas has decline consistently from 0.638 hectares in 1950-51 to 0.271 hectares in 1998-99 and is expected to decline further due to population growth. The per capita availability of forestland was around 0.113 hectares in 1950s, which has declined consistently over the period to 0.071 hectares in 1998-99. This is extremely low compared to the world standards. It is estimated that the livelihood of 70 million tribal and 200 million non-tribal rural people in India is dependent on forest (MoEF, 2006). Apart from fulfilling subsistence needs, forest provided them with employment and monetary income. On the other hand, this large-scale dependence exerts pressure on forests, leading to their unsustainable exploitation and eventual degradation. Unregulated extraction of fuel wood is a major cause of forest degradation and also for environmental pollution. A sample survey by the FSI estimates that grazing affects approximately 78 percent of India's forests (MoEF, 1999), leading to their degradation. There are also vast areas in India under waste and degraded lands, which are not being put to agricultural use. Wastelands can result from inherent/imposed disabilities such as by location, environment, chemical and physical properties of the soil or financial or management constraints. Thus, land under this category is vulnerable for severe degradation (Iyengar, 2003). This is also against the interest of reducing pollution and improving the environmental status of the country. With our population growing at an exponential rate it is most important for us that every possible inch of land is brought under some vegetation cover. Estimates of degraded land vary considerably and the extent of land degradation is yet to be determined precisely. Estimates of wasteland differ considerably due to definitional and coverage inconsistencies. According to the land use statistics for 2004 published by Department of Agriculture, the current estimates of culturable wasteland are 13.9 million hectares. The proportion of wastelands in different states of India varies considerably. The north-eastern states and states like Jammu and Kashmir, Gujarat and Rajasthan have higher proportion of wastelands due to the topography. But it is matter of concern for states where major share in wastelands areas are by the saline and alkaline areas, degraded pastures and grazing lands, and degraded land under plantation crops. However, the information on the land use

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statistics does not clearly indicate the extent of wasteland and degraded land, which could be restored with some intervention. The proportion of land under forests and grazing areas provide fairly good proxies for the magnitude of environmental degradation in an area. The spatial pattern in percent forest cover and percent pastures and grazing land show that both these environmental dimensions are negatively associated with spatial patterns in population pressure. Keeping this in view there is an imperative and urgent need for reclamation and development of wastelands should be formulated. Government Policies Unabated population growth, as at present, not only adds to the economic burden or all developmental activities, but also reduces the impact of economic growth on our society. Therefore for the success of our planning, population control becomes the most urgent necessity. At the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (1992), a consensus was established that population, the environment and development were inextricably linked. This consensus view was reaffirmed at the International Conference on Population and Development (1994). In addition reports and statements produced by Governmental and non-governmental organizations provide a solid basis on which to assess how far the various stakeholders have gone in operationalizing the linkages among population, environment and development. India has adopted many plans and policies to control its rapidly growing population and for the protection and improvement of the environment for sustainable development. These processes have largely focused on setting national priorities and it is found that policy implementation is lagging far behind policy formulation. Here we can have a glance on major plan and policy recommendations up till now regarding population and the environment in India. The National Population Policy document issued in 2000 set following objectives for the year 2010 to curtail its population growth and to improve the quality of life in India: (i) achieving replacement level of fertility by 2010, (ii) the attainment of compulsory and free school education up to the age of 14 years, and the reduction of drop-out rates to under 20 percent at primary and secondary school levels for both boys and girls, (iii) the reduction of infant mortality rate to 30 infant deaths per 1000 live births, and the maternal mortality rate to less than 100 per 100,000 births, (iv) the achievement of universal child immunization against all vaccine preventable diseases, (v) raising institutional deliveries to 80 percent, and those by trained persons to 100 percent, and (vi) the promotion of delayed marriage for women to 18 years (legal age at marriage for women India) and preferably to over 20. Moving in the direction of these targets is clearly desirable. However, these are yet unrealistic targets. Their attainment by 2010 requires both increased financial resources and improvements in the functioning of several social sector programmes. However, the National Population Policy, 2000 does not directly say anything about linkages between population growth and environment. In independent India new strategy of intensive commercial forestry were adopted from the sixties onwards. The constitution of India makes explicit reference to forest protection. According to Article 48A

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the ‘State shall endeavor to protect and improve environment and to safeguard the forests and wildlife of the country’. The earlier national policies for environmental management in India are largely contained in the Forest (Conservation) Act, 1980, the National Forest Policy, 1988, the National Conservation Strategy and Policy Statement on Environment and Development, 1992, the National Forestry Action Programme, 1999; and Coimbatore Charter on Environment and Forests, 2001. However, mobilizing financial resources is problematic for a developing country like ours and funds required for implementing planned activities cannot be generated internally. The MoEF has initiated the concept of FDAs (forest development agencies) at the forest division level and the pattern of districts rural development agencies. The move is expected to accelerate decentralized implementation of centrally sponsored afforestations schemes. Though the concept is quite credible, the lack of regular fund and the issues involve in collaborating with other rural development departments have again limited the success of these agencies. Policy failures can also emerge from various sources, including the use of fiscal instruments, such as explicit and implicit subsidies for the use of various resources, which provides incentives for excessive use of natural resources. As our development challenges have evolved and our understanding of the centrality of environmental concerns in development are sharpened, there is also a need to review the earlier objectives, policy instruments, and strategies. The National Environment Policy (NEP, 2004), is a response to our national commitment to clean environment, mandated in the Constitution, strengthened by judicial interpretation of Article 21. It is recognized that maintaining a healthy environment is not the state’s responsibility alone, but also that of every citizen. A spirit of partnership should be realized throughout the spectrum of environmental management in the country. The NEP, 2004 is also intended to be a statement of India's commitment to making a positive contribution to international efforts. It also intends to be a guide to action: in regulatory reform, programmes and projects for environmental conservation; review and enactment of legislation, by agencies of the Central, State, and Local Governments, ensuring the livelihood and wellbeing of the poor. It also seeks to stimulate partnerships of different stakeholders, i.e. public agencies, local communities, the investment community, and international development partners, in harnessing their respective resources and strength for environmental management. Recently, the Ministry of Tribal Affairs has prepared a draft Schedule Tribes (Recognition of Forest Rights) Bill, 2005, to vest forest rights and occupation of forest land for forest dwelling schedule tribes, which is now being examined by a joint parliamentary committee. Among other things the bill seeks to provide ownership to a maximum of 2.5 hectares of forest to a nuclear family. However, the provision of the bill have resulted in a ‘tiger-tribal’ controversy, with conservationists vehemently opposing the bill on grounds that regularizing tribal settlements in protected forest areas and providing people to reside on forest fringes access would increase the poaching of animals.

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While India agrees to the adoption of MDGs (Millennium Development Goals, 2000), it follows some indigenously set targets for the Tenth Five Year Plan to monitor socio-economic and environmental performances; this agrees with the spirit of the MDGs but is more attuned to the country’s specific socioeconomic requirements (see Table 4). The Tenth Plan (2002-07) had recognized that environmental sustainability “is not an option but an imperative”. Table 4: Comparing India's indigenously set targets vis-à-vis the Millennium Development Goals Issues

Target set for Tenth Five Year Plan (2002-2007) and beyond

Poverty

Reduction in poverty ratio by MDG1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger 5% in 2007 and 15% by 2012 Target: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than 1 dollar a day Reduction in infant mortality MDG 4: Reduce child mortality rate to 45 per 1000 live births Target: Reduce by two thirds, between 1990 and 2015, by 2007 and to 28 by 2012 the under five mortality

Health

Forest

Employment

Corresponding Millennium Development Goals/target

Reduction in maternal mortality rate to 2 per 1000 live births by 2007 and 33% by 2012 Increase in forest and tree cover by 25% by 2007 and 33% by 2012

MDG 5: Improve maternal deaths Target: reduce by three-fourths, between 1990 and 2015, the maternal mortality ratio

Gainfully employing the labour force that will be added during the Tenth Plan period

MDG 8: Build up global partnership for development Target: In cooperation with the developing countries, develop and implement strategies for decent and productive work for youth

MDG 7: Ensure environmental sustainability Target: Integrate the principles of sustainable development into country’s policies and programmes, and reverse the loss of environmental resources.

The Tenth Plan highlights that prevention of degradation of land, controlling floods and droughts, preventing desertification, conservation of fragile ecosystem, prevention of deforestation and conserving bio-diversity; all present challenges for planners and policy makers of India. The Tenth Plan, while emphasizing the need for balanced and sustainable economic development along with sustainability of the environment for healthy living by establishing quantitative targets for the Environment and Forest sector. During the Tenth Plan, it is also proposed to give thrust to include all components of forests such as, forest fire control measures, working plan preparation, infrastructure development, etc. for integrated forest protection. It is also mentioned that the Forest Survey of India should improve on the State of Forest Reports providing a more detailed assessment of forest cover and monitor changes in these. The Tenth Plan outlay for programmes related to environmental concerns, forestry development, wild life protection, river and lake conservation and animal welfare was Rs. 5,945 crores. Of this, Rs. 1,200 crore was earmarked for the environment sector and Rs. 2,100 crore for forestry and eco-development purpose. The Tenth Plan laid emphasis on urgent need of attention for the development of wastelands and degraded

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lands and to be accorded the highest priority for treatment under watershed programmes. The Perspective plan emphasizes the fact that the watershed development programme would have to become a people’s movement in order to succeed. It is stated that in spite of a number of schemes for the development of wastelands/degraded lands, there is a lack of authentic information on the extent of land treated under different schemes. Thus the creation of a national Management Information System for natural resource management would be given priority during the plan. In setting priorities for land use planning and management, it may be useful to identify and assess ‘hot spots’ of land degradation so that they can get maximum benefits from the limited resources available. Summary and Conclusion: Temporal analysis of population and land use data for the last fifty years demonstrates that population growth in India is now slowing down but its impact on land use trend is quite distressing. The changes in land use obviously reflect the pressure on land resources due to rising population. The distressing features are in the form of considerable increase in land put to non-agricultural uses, rise in fallow land, steep decrease in area under miscellaneous tree crops and groves. Area under non-agricultural use has grown very fast but not at the cost of cultivable area. From the regression analysis it is concluded that the effect of an increase in population density on change in cropping intensity is not significant statistically. This could be mainly due to the fact that there has been relatively little change in cropping intensity between 1951 and 2000. Yet again the country did not have remote sensing technology in the 1950s, one is not sure about the actual lost of forest over the decades in India. In this regard, Iyengar (2003) criticized the definitions assigned to land use categories in India and the definition of ‘forest’ does not imply that the land under forest has to be wooded. It is also clear from the analysis that from 1980-81 onwards there is hardly any changes in different land use categories. However, it is a fact that there is a lack of sufficient, accurate and up-to-date data on land conversion and infrastructure deployment patterns as a serious impediment for designing better land management and human settlement policies in India. The study also reveals that from environmental monitoring point of view, the land use data as they are collected are of very limited use and at times they may be misleading. Thus, the present system of land use fails to capture both the quantitative as well as qualitative changes. There is a need to strengthen the land use statistics in this context, so that, the objective for which it is generated, i.e. to asses the agricultural performance of a region can be fulfilled. Despite their valuable contributions to the country forests have been neglected in planning, and agencies working to mange them are poorly funded. Along with this neglect, forests are subjected to overexploitation, encroachments, illegal felling, and so on, leading to their degradation. To check forest degradation and fulfill the needs of forest-dependent people, rehabilitating of degraded forest areas and afforestation of wastelands, improving forest management through involvement of local communities are the strategies that need to be taken up.

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The most disturbing trend over the past few years has been the spread of dangerous or bad air quality. Despite many developments in the control of air pollution, India still faces major challenges in many cities and urban areas. To address the problem of air pollution comprehensively, an integrated air quality management approach is required, which cuts across different sectors and addresses social, economic, and technological issues. It should consider issues related to population distribution, regional land use, and transport planning, infrastructure development and environment. Thus greater efforts are required for bolstering data collection and dissemination mechanisms in this context. Integration of decision across different institutions and levels of the government is a prerequisite for ensuring effective implementation of policy. In India, the lack of integrated resource management is often regarded as a major weakness of policy. This precludes a comprehensive and long-term view of fund availability; the multifarious pressure on it and how they interact and change overtime; and the available options to mange it. Close interaction is essential among the three levels of government: centre, state, and local bodies and also between various departments of government, so that, India can move in the direction of set targets to control population growth and environmental degradation.

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Map 1: Level of Urbanization in India, 2001

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Map 2: Forest Map of India, 2001

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Map 3: Permanent Pastures, other Grazing Lands and Land under Miscellaneous Tree Crops and Groves (not included in net area sown), 2001

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Appendix-1: Cropping Intensity in India and its States, 1991-2001 India/States 1991 2001 130.4 134.3 India Andhra Pradesh 131.6 122.7 Arunachal Pradesh 165.8 159.0 Assam 140.3 151.5 Bihar 136.1 134.2 Gujarat 111.5 105.0 Goa 115.3 121.1 Haryana 165.6 169.7 Himachal Pradesh 168.8 173.7 Jammu & Kashmir 145.8 147.1 Karnataka 113.2 117.9 Kerala 134.4 134.1 Madhya Pradesh 122.1 131.7 Maharashtra 121.9 126.3 Manipur 128.6 142.1 Meghalaya 120.3 110.8 Mizoram 113.8 100.0 Nagaland 110.5 113.0 Orissa 152.2 140.3 Punjab 177.9 194.4 Rajasthan 118.3 124.4 Sikkim 160.0 127.4 Tamil Nadu 118.9 119.3 Tripura 164.8 151.6 Uttar Pradesh 147.3 151.3 West Bengal 162.4 174.5 Union Territory A. & N. Islands 102.7 115.4 Chandigarh 133.3 200.0 D. & N. Haveli 108.3 126.1 Daman & Diu 100.0 125.0 Delhi 158.3 148.8 Lakshadweep 133.3 133.3 Pondicherry 163.0 175.0

References Census of India (1991): Series-1, India, Paper 2 of 1991, Provisional Population Totals: Rural-Urban Distribution, Registrar General and Census Commissioner, India. Census of India (2001): Final Population Totals, Series 1: India, Registrar General and Census Commissioner, India. Chadha, G. K., S. Sen and H. R. Sharma (2004): State of Indian Farmer: A Millennium Study, Vol. 2: Land Resources, Academic Foundation, New Delhi, India.

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Chatterjee, B. (2002): Environmental Laws Implementation Problems and Perspectives, Deep and Deep Publication Pvt. Ltd., New Delhi. Dyson, T. (2004): “India's Population – The Future”, in Twenty First Century India Population, Economy, Human Development, and the Environment, (eds.) Tim Dyson, Robert Cassen and Leela Visaria, Oxford University Press, New Delhi, India. Forest Survey of India (2003): State of Forest Report, Dehra Dun: FSI, India. Iyengar, S. (2003): “Environmental Damage to land Resources Need to Improve Land Use Data Base”, Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. 38, No. 34, pp. 3596-3604. Lester R. Brown and Jodi L. Jacobson (1987): “The Future of Urbanization: facing the Ecological and Economic Constraints”, Worldwatch Paper No. 77, Washington, DC. Ministry of Environment and Forest (1999): National Forestry Action Programme: India, Vol. I: Status of Forestry in India, New Delhi: MoEF, Government of India. Ministry of Environment and Forest (2002): Interim country report-India for United Nations Forum on Forest (UNFF-II), New Delhi: MoEF, Government of India. Ministry of Environment and Forest (2006): National Environmental Policy 2006, New Delhi: MoEF, Government of India. Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (2000): National Population Policy 2000, Department of Family Welfare, New Delhi: MoHFW, Government of India. Mishra, V. (2002): “Population Growth and Intensification of land Use in India”, International Journal of Population Geography, Vol. 8, pp. 365-383. Planning Commission (2002): Tenth Five-year Plan 2002-2007, Vol. I: Dimensions and Strategies, New Delhi: Planning Commission, Government of India. Planning Commission (2002): Tenth Five-year Plan 2002-2007, Vol. II: Sectoral Policies and Programmes, New Delhi: Planning Commission, Government of India. Richards, John F. (1986): “World Environmental History and Economic Development” in Sustainable Development of the Biosphere, (eds.) W. C. Clark and R. E. Munn. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Statistical Abstract India (1998): Central Statistical Organization, New Delhi, India. Statistical Abstract India (2004): Central Statistical Organization, New Delhi, India. TERI (2006): Looking back to change track GREEN India 2047, The Energy and Resources Institute, New Delhi, India. United Nations (2001): Population, Environment and Development: The Concise Report, New York. United Nations (2001): World population prospects: the 2000 revision, highlights, ESA/P/WP. World Health Organization (2006): Fuel for Life: household energy and health, Geneva: WHO.

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