Population Change and Population Ageing in the UK Dr. Julie Jefferies, Demographic Analysis Unit, Population Statistics Division, Office for National Statistics

Introduction 1

Role of ONS - national statistics institute for the UK - producer of official statistics on the economy, population and society - independent of government - do not advise or comment on policy

Introduction 2

Why understanding the changing UK population is relevant to you - understand who you are providing services for and how this may change in future Also:

- understand future changes in the workforce - impact of population on funding of services

Overview of presentation

• Changing demographics 2001 to 2011 • Future population change • Ageing of the population • Some implications of an ageing population

Changing demographics 2001-2011

The big picture - UK population growth over the last century

UK population change 2001 to 2011

Population

Number of us ua l res i dents

2001

2011

59.1 million

63.2 million

% change 7%

Subnational variation in population change 2001 to 2011 Percentage change in UK population, 20012011, by local authority district Source: Census - Office for National Statistics, Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency, National Records of Scotland

Largest increases in: •Tower Hamlets 26.4% •Newham 23.5% •Dungannon 20.9%

Largest decreases in: •Barrow-in-Furness -4.0% •Inverclyde -3.7% •Argyll and Bute -3.6%

UK population change 2001 to 2011

Population

Number of us ua l res i dents

Population density

Peopl e per s qua re ki l ometre

Households

Number of hous ehol ds

Average household size Population aged 65+

2001

2011

% change

59.1 million

63.2 million

7%

244

261

7%

24.5 million

26.4 million

8%

2.4

2.3

9.4 million

10.4 million

11%

What else does the 2011 Census tell us? (England & Wales) • 1.00 million people resident in communal establishments compared with 0.86 million in 2001 (2% in each year) •195,000 short-term residents (non-UK born) living in E&W •Most common main languages (other than English/Welsh) - Polish, Panjabi, Urdu, Bengali, Gujarati and Chinese • Cars & vans available to households – increase from 23.9 million in 2001 to 27.3 million by 2011.

The future?

Estimated population and projected population growth in the UK growth millions in the UK, 2000 - 2035 80

high population variant estimated population

75

2027 = 70.0 million

principal projection

2020 = 67.2 million

70

65

2035 = 73.2 million

projected population

low population variant natural increase

2010 = 62.3 million

53% 60

55 2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

net migration 47%

Households by type – Interim projections for England 2011-2021 (DCLG)

Population ageing

Mini Quiz 1 !

1. What percentage of people living in England and Wales are aged 65 and over? a) 5 per cent b) 12 per cent c) 17 per cent d) 24 per cent (in mid-2011)

Mini Quiz 2!

2. How many centenarians (100+) are there currently living in England and Wales? a) 600 b) 1,700 c) 7,800 d) 11,700 (in mid-2011)

Answers

1. (c) 17 per cent of people living in England and Wales are aged 65 and over 2. (d) 11,700 centenarians (100+) are currently living in England and Wales (in mid-2011)

Median age of UK population 2035 = 42.2

41

2020 = 39.9 2010 = 39.7 40

39

2035

2030

2025

2020

2015

38 2010

Age in years

42

E&W population by age group and year 15.3m

9.3m Millions

23%

7.8m 17% 16%

64%

65%

59%

20%

19%

18%

21 %

19 %

Population aged 85 and over, England and Wales : Change from 2011 to 2036 Millions

11,700

110,100

Drivers of population ageing - mortality Age specific mortality rates, England & Wales, 1911 - 2010 per 1000 population 160 140 120 100

under 1

80

1-64

60

65 -74

40 20 0

75+

Life expectancy at birth in E&W

Life expectancy at birth (years): 2009-11

Males 78.7 Females 82.6 Difference 3.9 years

1980-82

Males 71.0 Females 77.0 Difference 6.0 years

Life expectancy at age 65 in E&W Male and female life expectancy at age 65, E&W Years remaining 22

20.8 years left 2.6 year gap

20

4 year gap

Females

18

18.2 years left 16

Males 14

12 1980-1982

1984-1986

1988-1990

1992-1994

1996-1998

Year

2000-2002

2004-2006

2008-2010

Drivers of population ageing - fertility Total Fertility Rate, England and Wales 1940 - 2011 3.50 3.00

post-World War II

1960s “baby boom”

2.50

Children per woman

2.00 1.50

1.6 1.00 0.50 0.00 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

UK population: age and sex structure 2010 and 2035

Men and women at older ages Sex ratios at age ‘65 and over’ and age ‘85 and over’ 350

335:100

300

number of women per 100 men aged 85 & over 250

200

number of women per 100 207:100 men aged 65 & over

154:100 150

139:100 118:100

127:100 100 1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Ageing population: geographic variation in % population 65+, projected 2013-2033

Lowest 65+ • Tower Hamlets • Lowest Lambeth 65+ • • Newham Tower Hamlets

6.2% 7.8 % 8.1 % 6.7%

• Islington 9.3 % Highest 65+ • Wandsworth 9.5 % • West Somerset 32.6% • Highest Christchurch 31.3% 65+ • • North WestNorfolk Somerset 31.2% 43.1% • Berwick-upon-Tweed 41.1% • South Shropshire 41.0%

Horizon gazing – What might the E&W population look like in 100 years?

2011

2110

Median age

39.5

46.8

Percent aged 65 and over

17

30

(Percent aged 85 and over)

(2)

(11)

Number of centenarians

11,700

1,786,000

Implications of an ageing population

The ‘doom and gloom’ outlook •Rising costs of hospital care •Increasing need for social care •The pensions issue…

The positive outlook - older people’s contributions and active ageing

Volunteering Caring for partners/ older parents/ grandchildren

Paid work

How healthy is the older population? 2011 Census E&W “Are your day-to-day activities limited because of a health problem or disability which has lasted, or is expected to last, at least 12 months? (Include problems related to old age)”

Living longer in good health? UK life expectancy and healthy life expectancy at age 65 2008-10 years 25

20

15

10

Healthy life expectancy at 65

5

0

Males

Females

Total life expectancy at 65

Challenges: Health Living longer more people with: •long-term health conditions •multiple health conditions e.g. heart disease, cancer, diabetes, dementia, osteoporosis, arthritis, sight loss, hearing loss

Health and Social Care • Around one-quarter of people aged 65+ will need residential care during their lifetime and around half will need domiciliary care only. • Rising expectations of choice and quality in health and social care • Joining up health and social care – early intervention • Care and Support – DH draft bill

Funding state pensions Changes in State Pension Age

3.60

Estimated and projected Old Age Support Ratio with/without State Pension Age changes, UK, 2005 to 2035

3.40

Men: 65 to 68 by 2046

3.20

With changes to

3.00

Women: 60 to 65 by 2018, to 68 by 2046

2.80 2.60

Without change to SPA

2.40 2.20 2.00 2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Employment at older ages Percentage of older population in employment, UK, 1993 to 2011 14.0 12.0 P e 10.0 r c 8.0 e n 6.0 t a g 4.0 e 2.0

1.4 million workers aged SPA & over

753,000 SPA & over

0.0 1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

2008

2011

Challenges for public service providers Challenge: more older people vs. financial constraints How do we need to change to accommodate the changing demographics of service users? • • • •

working together across sectors information sharing investment in innovation & design facilitating volunteering and engagement (e.g. by older people for older people)

The good news! We’re living longer and we’re staying active and healthier for longer

For further information… Useful ageing web links will be made available. For information or queries on population projections ,contact: [email protected] For information or queries on population ageing, contact: [email protected] For information or queries on 2011 Census, contact: [email protected]