ALMARES

Poland Market Survey

Report Empty Discarded Pack Collection April 2015 Conducted on behalf: British American Tobacco Imperial Tobacco Group Japan Tobacco International Philip Morris International Prepared by: ALMARES Institute for Consulting and Market Research ul. Swietokrzyska 31/33a 00-049 Warszawa, Poland 1

ALMARES

Survey Methodology

•

Empty Discarded Pack (EDP) collection  Random collection from streets and public bins  Any brand and market variant  Total 70 cities (40 largest cities and 30 smaller towns)  Target main sample: 17,000 packs  City sample quotas proportional to population  Fieldwork conducted – 7.04 – 29.04.2015

•

Limitations  Homes and workplaces are not covered  No information on counterfeit incidence of non-participating companies’ products

•

Caution  The survey is designed to focus on trends rather than incidence at a single point in time

3

ALMARES

Sampling Plan Lithuania

Russia Gdynia

Suwalki

Gdansk

Olecko Braniewo Lidzbark Warminski

Pomorskie

Koszalin

Elk

Tczew

Warmiòsko-Mazurskie

Elblag

Starogard Gdanski

Podlaskie

Olsztyn

Gryfice

Sokolka Bialystok

Zachodniopomorskie

Grudziadz

Lomza Ostroleka

Belarus

Zlotow Stupsk

Kujawsko-Pomorskie

Szczecin Stargard Szczecinski

Pila

Torun Bydgoszcz

Chodziez

Mazowieckie

Inowroclaw

Sokolow Podlaski

Wloclawek Plock Gorzow Wielkopolski

Oborniki Szamotuly

Legionowo Siedlce

Gniezno

Miedzyrzecz

Kutno

Poznan Konin

Lubuskie

Germany

Radzyn Podlaski

Wielkopolskie Kalisz

Leszno

Ostrow Wielkopolski Glogow

Lubin

Lubelskie

Poland Kozienice

Pabianice Lask

Pulawy

Tomaszow Mazowiecki

Radom

Dolnoslaskie Wroclaw

Radomsko

Namyslow

Swidnica Walbrzych

Opole

Czestochowa

Hrubieszow

Skarzysko-Kamienna Starachowice Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski

Zamosc

Swietokrzy skie Jedrzejow

Staszow

Slaskie

Stalowa Wola Nisko Tarnobrzeg Mielec

Zawiercie Strzelce Opolskie Tarnowskie Gory Krapkowice Piekary Slaskie

Lancut Przeworsk

Dabrowa Gornicza Kedzierzyn-Kozle Bytom Gliwice Bedzin Siemianowice Slaskie Zabrze Chorzow Sosnowiec Swietochlowice Ruda Slaska Katowice Tychy Myslowice Jaworzno Krakow Rybnik Raciborz Zory Wodzislaw Slaski

Ropczyce Tarnow

Rzeszow

Ukraine

Przemysl

Podkarpackie

Jaslo

Malopolskie

Bielsko-Biala

Chelm Krasnystaw

Kielce

Opolskie Jelenia Gora

Czech Republic

Lublin

Piotrkow Trybunalski Belchatow

Legnica Zlotoryja Bogatynia

Milanowek

Lodzkie Zgierz Lodz

Zielona Gora

Biala Podlaska

Warszawa

Pruszkow

Nowy Sacz

Slovakia

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ALMARES

All Packs Collected – Incidence of Non-domestic Packs

Non-domestic 19.0%

Includes 1,7% of counterfeit of participating companies

Domestic 81.0%

Q.2. 2015

N= 343,132 weighted sticks 8

All data: calculated in cigarettes (single) – weighted by localization populations and smoking incidence

ALMARES

100% 90%

Includes 1,7% of counterfeit of participating companies

15.1%

Includes 2,6% of counterfeit of participating companies

14.0%

Includes 2,7% of counterfeit of participating companies

Includes 2,2% of counterfeit of participating companies

14.5%

15.4%

85.5%

84.6%

All Packs Collected – Non-domestic Packs Incidence – Evolution Includes 2,2% of counterfeit of participating companies

Includes 2,5% of counterfeit of participating companies

17.0%

17.3%

83.0%

82.7%

Includes 1,7% of counterfeit of participating companies

19.0%

80% 70% 60% 50% 40%

84.9%

86.0%

81.0%

30% 20% 10% 0% Q2 2013

Q3 2013

N= 346,270 N= 346,044 Figures are given in weighted sticks.

Q4 2013

Q2 2014

Q3 2014

N= 345,161 N= 344,256 N= 344,876 Domestic Packs Non-domestic Packs

Q4 2014 N= 343,885

Q2 2015 N= 343,132

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ALMARES

Q.2. 2015

Poland national incidence of non-domestic packs: 19.0%

5,9%

10,2%

49,1%

Warsaw 32,7%*

19,6%*

3,9% 14,1%

17,3%

Incidence of Non-domestic Packs by Nielsen Region Q.2. 2013 Warsaw 24.2% Central 21.6% East 45.4% North 4.4% South 10.2% South-East 10.1% South-West 7.8% West 2.4%

Q.3. 2013 Warsaw 20.3% Central 19.9% East 36.5% North 8.0% South 10.1%

Q.4. 2013 Warsaw 21.3% Central 21.8% East 28.1% North 7.4% South 11.7% South-East 18.7% South-West 5.3% West 2.6%

Q.2. 2014 Warsaw 21.6% Central 22.1% East 43.9% North 6.4% South 9.4% South-East 15.3% South-West 6.3% West 1.2%

Q.3. 2014 Warsaw 21.9% Central 26.3% East 46.7% North 7.7% South 13.0% South-East 12.7% South-West 6.2% West 3.9%

Q.4. 2014 Warsaw 26.9% Central 24.9% East 39.8% North 6.1% South 13.0% South-East 16.7% South-West 10.0% West 2.8%

South-East South-West West

12.1% 5.2% 2.3%

18 All data: calculated in cigarettes (single) – weighted by localization populations and smoking incidence

ALMARES

Incidence of Non-domestic Packs by City

Poland national incidence of non-domestic packs: 19.0%

Q.2. 2015

Largest 40 cities Gdynia (0,4%) Gdańsk (0,0%)

Koszalin (0,7%)

Szczecin (6,8%)

Small Towns Elbląg (75,1%)

Olsztyn (63,4%)

Toruń (3,5%) Gorzów Wielkopolski (12,2%)

Białystok (41,1%) Włocławek (22,5%) Płock (30,3%)

Poznań (11,2%)

Wałbrzych (1,3%)

South-East

Warszawa (32,7%)

Zielona Góra (4,0%)

Legnica (7,2%)

REGION East

Grudziądz (4,0%)

Bydgoszcz (14,8%)

N= 343,132 weighted sticks

Łódź (19,0%) Kalisz (11,3%) Wrocław (3,6%)

Radom (17,1%)

Częstochowa (19,4%)

Lublin (36,8%)

Central

Kielce (8,4%) Opole (3,3%)

Zabrze (10,9%) Rybnik Gliwice (3,3%) Dąbrowa Górnicza (11,5%) (18,5%) Ruda Śląska Katowice Sosnowiec (16,4%) (9,0%) Chorzow (15,4%) Bytom (9,4%)Tychy (15,9%) (20,1%) Kraków Tarnów (16,8%) (7,3%) Bielsko Biała

West Rzeszów (30,0%)

South-West

(21,5%)

North

CITY Sokółka Braniewo Lidzbark Warmiński Krasnystaw Hrubieszów Olecko

INCIDENCE 77,3% 85,2% 88,4% 38,5% 16,5% 73,1%

Radzyń Podlaski Nisko Jasło Ropczyce Przeworsk Łańcut Jędrzejów

17,9% 26,6% 24,5% 31,3% 30,0% 31,2% 13,3%

Staszów Radomsko Łask Milanówek Kozienice

15,2% 19,9% 21,7% 18,5% 10,0%

Sokołów Podlaski Międzyrzecz Złotów Oborniki Szamotuły

9,9% 10,5% 1,5% 13,9% 13,3%

Chodzież Złotoryja Strzelce Opolskie Krapkowice Bogatynia

0,7% 3,3% 9,7% 7,2% 2,6%

Namysłów

5,9%

Gryfice

0,0%

19 All data: calculated in cigarettes (single) – weighted by localization populations and smoking incidence

ALMARES

Incidence of Non-domestic Packs Comparison of Results in Large Cities Vs. Results in Smaller Towns Q.2. 2015

N= 343,132 weighted sticks

100.0% 90.0%

19.0%

18.7%

24.5%

80.0% 70.0% 60.0% Non-domestic

50.0% 40.0%

81.0%

81.3%

70 cities (40 largest cities + 30 smaller towns)

Largest 40 cities

75.5%

Domestic

30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0%

95,2% out of total 100% sample

30 smaller towns 4,8% out of total 100% sample

N= 16,591 N= 343,132 N= 326,541 All data: calculated in cigarettes (single) – weighted by localization populations and smoking incidence

20

ALMARES

Non-domestic Incidence by Voivodship

Lithuania

Russia G dyni a Suwalki G dansk

O lecko Br aniewo

Pomorskie

Lidzbar k War m inski

Elk Tczew

Warmiòsko-Mazurskie

El bl ag

Koszal i n

St ar ogar d G danski

0.1%

Podlaskie

70.3%

O l szt yn

Sokolka

G r yf ice

43.3% Bi al yst ok

Zachodniopomorskie

G r udzi adz

Lom za

O st r oleka

Belarus

Zlot ow

5.3%

Szczeci n

Kujawsko-Pomorskie

St ar gar d Szczecinski

St upsk

Pila Tor un

11.6%

Bydgoszcz

Chodziez

Mazowieckie

I nowr oclaw Sokolow Podlaski Wl ocl aw ek

30.4%

Pl ock

Legionowo

G or zow Wi el kopol ski

O bor niki Siedlce

Szam ot uly

G niezno

Biala Podlaska War szaw a Pr uszkow

Poznan

Kut no

M iedzyr zecz Konin

Radzyn Podlaski

Lubuskie

M ilanowek

Wielkopolskie

8.3%

Warsaw

Lodz

10.8%

Zi el ona G or a

Lubelskie

Poland

Zgier z

Germany

32.7%

Lodzkie

Kozienice

Pabianice Kal i sz

Leszno

35.2%

Pulawy Lask

Tom aszow M azowiecki

Radom

19.1%

O st r ow Wielkopolski

G logow

Lubl i n

Chelm

Piot r kow Tr ybunalski Belchat ow

Kr asnyst aw Hr ubieszow Skar zysko- Kam ienna

Lubin

Dolnoslaskie

St ar achowice O st r owiec Swiet okr zyski Zam osc

Swietokrzy skie

Radom sko

Legni ca

3.7%

Wr ocl aw

Zlot or yja

Nam yslow Ki el ce

Opolskie

Bogat ynia

Czest ochow a Jedr zejow

St alowa Wola

9.2%

Nisko St aszow

Tar nobr zeg

Slaskie

Jelenia G or a Swidnica Wal br zych O pol e

M ielec

4.6%

Zawier cie

St r zelce O polskie

Tar nowskie G or y

14.1%

Kr apkowice

Pr zewor sk

Piekar y Slaskie

Kedzier zyn- Kozle

Lancut

Dabr ow a G or ni cza Byt om Bedzin Gliw Zabr i ce ze ChorSizow em ianowice Slaskie Swiet ochlowice Sosnow i ec Ruda Sl aska Kat ow i ce

Rzeszow

Tar now

M yslowicJaw e or zno Tychy

Pr zem ysl Kr akow

Rybni k Racibor z Zor y

Czech Republic

Jaslo

Malopolskie

Wodzislaw Slaski

Ukraine

Ropczyce

Bi el sko- Bi al a Nowy Sacz

>30%

Podkarpackie

29.2%

15.6%

>15% 2% 30% >15% 2% 30%

2.0%

>15% 2%