Plug-in Electric Vehicles and the electrification of road transport Presentation to Sydney Mechanical Chapter Engineers Australia June 18th, 2009 Richard Hunwick
[email protected] www.hunwickconsulants.com.au Hunwick Consultants
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Our main energy policy concerns • • • • • • •
Long-term price and availability of petroleum. Imbalances in trade/current accounts. Rising greenhouse gas emissions. Increasing “peakiness” of electricity demand. Barriers to the adoption of renewable energy. Demand for ever higher power supply reliability. Urban air pollution esp. photochemical smog.
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A focus on fuelling road transport Road transport depends on petroleum-based fuels. 700 million motor vehicles now registered worldwide. This number will grow rapidly, probably to: 1 billion by 2015, 2 billion by 2030, 4 billion by 2050. Growth in demand for diesel is faster than for petrol. Aviation and shipping (both growing rapidly) also depend on petroleum-based fuels.
There is no way that petroleum can hope to fuel all of these vehicles over the long term. Hunwick Consultants
Reducing our petroleum dependency Should the world (and Australia) seek to change: The fuels that existing types of vehicles use? Or, change The vehicles so they can run on other existing energy sources/carriers notably electricity? Or, change To new both: i.e. to new vehicles and new energy sources/carriers notably hydrogen? Or, change To new infrastructures that reduce the need for motor vehicles—must apply to freight as well?
It takes time to bring about significant change, not just new technology. Resources (financial and human)—all are fundamentally scarce. Hunwick Consultants
Time: the scarcest resource Consider what can be accomplished in a decade: Build any major infrastructure e.g. base-load power station. Once built, their lifetimes will be at least 5 decades. But, Motor vehicle fleets almost fully turn over in that time. The logical conclusion: It makes most sense to change to new vehicle types designed to run on other non-petroleum fuels/energy carriers than to change to new fuels suitable for existing vehicle types. There is only one “fuel” good for the very long-haul: Electricity, via Plug-in Electric Vehicles (PEVs). Hunwick Consultants
Following sections address:
What are PEVs? Their potential impacts on our electricity supply systems, including on: - total energy and power requirements, - electricity demand patterns (peakiness), - the adoption of renewable energy sources, and - demand for ever higher power supply reliability. Barriers to the adoption of PEVs. What should we be doing?
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What are PEVs? Plug-in Electric Vehicles fit into a continuum best defined by their amount of on-board electricity storage: LOW Normal light vehicles 25 kWh Example: Tesla Roadster, 56 kWh
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Hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) HEVs use electricity and hydrocarbon fuels to drive wheels. But the vehicle’s sole energy source is the hydrocarbon fuel. HEVs can yield up to 50% better fuel economy (city), by: regenerative braking; turning off IC engine when the host vehicle is stopped; controlling the IC engine to operate more efficiently. HEVs come in two flavours: Parallel and Series. Parallel HEVs: both the internal combustion engine and electric motor(s) drive the wheels. Toyota Prius the familiar example. Series HEVs: The IC engine only drives a generator, which supplies power to batteries and wheel-drive electric motors. Diesel-electric locomotives and heavy off-road haul trucks are examples.
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Plug-in hybrid-electric vehicles (PHEVs).
Are as for HEVs, but can plug into the electricity grid. On-board batteries allow 30 to 100 km urban-cycle driving. If battery charge gets too low, the ICE cuts in to recharge battery and/or provide motive power to the wheels. As power demand increases, the ICE cuts in to supplement electric motor (parallel type only). Vehicle batteries can be recharged from a standard power point, pref. overnight: Grid to vehicle concept (G2V). And, parked and plugged-in PHEVs can supply power in the reverse direction: Vehicle to grid concept (V2G).
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The first Prius PHEV conversion: in USA-2004 Lead-acid batteries 15 km electricityonly drive range. Achieved 2.25 l/100km gasoline fuel economy In 2006, Li-ion batteries replaced lead-acid, for 50 km all-electric range Source: www.calcars.org
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Most auto makers now have PEV programs
Source: www.calcars.org
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A cottage industry: Prius conversions
EnergyCS (California) Existing Prius 1.3 kWh NiMH battery replaced by 9 kWh Li-ion battery pack. Conversion cost: n.a.
A123 Hymotion (Canada) Retains existing Prius NiMH battery pack, adds 5 kWh Li-ion battery pack. Conversion cost: c. US$12,000
These conversions are expensive, void Toyota’s warranties and are limited by the Prius’ 21 kW electric motor power. Sources: www.calcars.org Hunwick Consultants
BYD Auto, Shenzen
Hybrid-electric (F3DM) and all-electric e6). F3DM on sale now, in China. Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway owns 10%.
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The GM Volt series PHEV 16 kWh Li-ion battery 2011 Production version
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A series PHEV conversion PML Flightlink PHEV Mini (UK) a series PHEV conversion: Configuration: Batteries: Ultracapacitor : IC engine: Performance: Top speed: Peak power: Braking:
In-wheel motor-generators (4). Li-polymer, 21 kWh 350V, 11 Farad, 700A 15 kW 2-cylinder 250 cc gasoline 0-100 km/h in 4.5 sec. 240 km/hr to 475 kW No mechanical brakes
Source: www.pmlflightlink.com
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Volvo Recharge PHEV concept.
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Audi Metroproject quattro concept PEV As shown at October 2007 Tokyo Motor Show •
An example of a “through the road” hybrid (front wheels ICE, rear wheels electric).
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Rear wheels, powered through the road, charge the batteries.
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Concept lends itself to retrofitting existing cars, to convert them to PEVs— and 4WD
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110 kW petrol motor, 30 kW electric motor, 440 Nm torque with both!
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Up to 100 km all-electric range with Li-ion batteries.
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Tesla Motors Roadster (an all EV) At the LA Motor Show 2006, charging arrangements, rotor of motor/generator (175 kW) at right.
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G2V and V2G Combined with smart meters and control software: When PEVs are plugged in, power can flow both ways: - grid to vehicle (G2V) (battery charging) and - vehicle to grid (V2G) (grid support). PEVs will soon represent a vast stored electricity resource. Host buildings have a power supply on hand. Renewables-based electricity surplus to immediate needs can be stored in PEV batteries. Hunwick Consultants
Case 1: Power spot price $150/MWh AC mains Plug
On-board generator
Power to/from drivetrain (off)
Parked plug-in hybridelectric vehicle
Discharge
Power conditioning and control
DC bus
Energy storage
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Case 3: Power spot price >$300/MWh. AC mains Plug
Power conditioning and control On-board generator
Power to/from drivetrain (off)
DC bus
Energy storage
Parked plug-in hybridelectric vehicle
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Impact of PEVs on load-duration curves
V2G
With PEVs
Power demand
Without PEVs
0
2,000
4,000 Hours per year
6,000
G2V
8,000
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16,000
32,000
14,000
28,000
12,000
24,000
10,000
20,000
8,000
16,000
6,000
4,000
Total cars on road, '000 Total PHEVs regd, '000 Total petr. cons.Ml/yr, no EVs Total petr. cons.Ml/yr, with EVs
2,000
12,000
8,000
P etroleum fuel consum ption, M l/year
Total vehicles registered, '000
PEVs in the Australian vehicle fleet. Case 1: Modest support ($2,000/vehicle, falls to $400)
4,000
0 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Year
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16,000
32,000
14,000
28,000
12,000
24,000
10,000
20,000
8,000
16,000
6,000
4,000
Total cars on road, '000 Total PHEVs regd, '000 Total petr. cons.Ml/yr, no EVs Total petr. cons.Ml/yr, with EVs
12,000
8,000
2,000
Petroleum fuel consum ption, M l/year
Total vehicles registered, '000
PEVs in the Australian vehicle fleet. Case 2: Medium support ($5,000/vehicle, falls to $1,100)
4,000
0 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Year
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16,000
32,000
14,000
28,000
12,000
24,000
10,000
20,000
8,000
16,000
6,000
4,000
Total cars on road, '000 Total PHEVs regd, '000 Total petr. cons.Ml/yr, no EVs Total petr. cons.Ml/yr, with EVs
2,000
12,000
8,000
Petroleum fuel consum ption, M l/year
Total vehicles registered, '000
PEVs in the Australian vehicle fleet. Case 3: Aggressive support ($8,000/vehicle, falls to $1,600)
4,000
0 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Year
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Results from modelling, 2010-2025 Case Cumulative cost of support ($billion) Cum. import savings ($bn) $100/barrel
Minimal support
Medium support
Aggressive support
$1.1
$7.3
$20.0
$14.4
$36.0
$57.6
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Impacts on electricity demand & supply Of all registered PEVs, on average: Half are parked and connected to grid at any time 6am-8pm. Stored energy available in each parked vehicle: 10 kWh. Charge/discharge rate of each parked vehicle: 10 kW.
Most of this electricity storage capacity would be paid for by the motorist (distributors might well pay for the parking charge/discharge infrastructure). Hunwick Consultants
Energy storage represented by parked PEVs, Australia 60 55 50 Aggressive PHEV market growth
45
GW, GWh
40 35 30 25 20 Minimal PHEV market growth
15 10 5 0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Year
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Electricity demand from PEVs, aggressive growth 400,000 360,000
Electricity consumption, GWh p.a.
320,000 280,000 240,000 200,000 160,000 120,000
Electricity use by PHEVs GWh Electricity use, non transport, GWh
80,000 40,000 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Year
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PEV’s: the incentives map Likely to be (or at least should be) in favour: The electricity supply industry (ESI), esp. distributors, retailers Base-load power generators. Renewable energy producers: solar and wind. Governments. Perhaps less likely to be in favour: Some oil companies. Some car companies. Peak-load power generators. What about the motorist (business as well as private)? Will like dramatically lower fuel costs. Will like low maintenance costs, performance, low noise. Won’t like sticker prices in early years. Hunwick Consultants
Is there an emerging consensus? Recent statements from overseas sources: “Electricity in transportation has to be done. It is urgent. It is so important that everything else is secondary… the drumbeat of the electrical transportation is accelerating like nothing I've ever seen in my life.” Andy Grove, former CEO Intel Corp.
I would invest $150 billion over the next 10 years to create green jobs, particularly in the automotive industry and to improve the electricity grid so people can drive plug-in hybrid vehicles… We should make sure that every government car is a plug-in hybrid." USA president-elect Barak Obama.
“We will introduce an all-electric car in 2010 in the United States and Japan, and we will mass-market it globally in 2012….People today are very interested in cars that are good for the environment, and we believe there is strong latent demand for electric cars. Renault and Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn
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What about the utilities?
"Through this capability (PEVs), we're able to reduce stress on the grid during peak periods and keep rates low " David Mohler, Chief Technology Officer, Duke Energy
“Electrification of road transport is one of the last frontiers for electricity and a key to reducing oil-dependency and cutting CO2 emissions.” Lars Joseffson, CEO Vattenfall
“This innovation…strives to reconcile the challenges of individual mobility, economic growth and environmental impacts.” Pierre Gadonneix, President and CEO, Electricité de France (EdF)
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Barriers to the adoption of PEVs
Lithium batteries are still too expensive, and have lingering safety concerns, but costs falling rapidly. Cheaper alternatives e.g. CSIRO-developed Ultrabattery, OK for many commercial vehicles: buses, rigid trucks. Parallel PEV designs (the only type currently on the roads) don’t represent the future, being complex and expensive. (Series PEVs do: they allow elimination of mechanical transmission, mechanical/hydraulic brakes, large IC engines.) By 2015 PEVs likely to have a price premium c. A$5000.
PEVs are coming--if any incumbents resist the trend, demand will be met from upstart Chinese or Indian manufacturers. Hunwick Consultants
A range of adoption alternatives Alternatives available may demand choices: The Better Place business model. Hybrid-electric or all-electric. Which is best for: The electricity supply industry? Renewable energy development? Local design and manufacture? An after-market PEV conversion industry? Hunwick Consultants
What, then, should we be doing? State (and local) governments can encourage: Use of qualifying PEVs by giving them access to transit lanes, bus lanes, parking spaces, reduced registration fees. Departments, SOCs, Councils, purchase PEVs for their fleets. Electricity distributors to install charging stations and draft standardised charging and V2G contracts. The Federal Government can encourage: Local manufacture of Series PEVs and key components by vehicle & parts manufacturers (via $500 million “green car” fund?) Adoption (including conversions) of PEV-based buses and rigid trucks by tax concessions/rebates.
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Last word: PEVs represent a disruptive technology, above all for the electricity supply industry. Yet they may well be the energy policy silver bullet
Thank you
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