Planning for uncertainty in a climate-changing world: Workshop pack

If you have any questions about the materials and agenda, or would like further support in structuring your workshop, please contact Forum for the Future Jemima Jewell | [email protected] or call +44 (0)20 7324 3652 To download the full report and presentation or to watch the animations click here: www.forumforthefuture.org/project/the-future-climate-for-development

about the project This work was produced by independent sustainability experts Forum for the Future with support from the Department for International Development (DFID). It explores how climate change could transform low-income countries over the next 20 years, causing profound social, economic and political transformations as well as major environmental impacts. The report, animations and supporting materials are designed to be a practical tool to help governments, NGOs, businesses and policy makers in both developed and developing countries “future-proof” their strategies, explore new ways of working and plan for a range of possible futures.

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scenario workshop: objectives The future climate for development explores how low-income countries might respond to climate change over the next two decades. This workshop guide provides a structured way of thinking through the different possible scenarios, and a means of deciding what that means for your organisation today. The workshop will: • provide a forum for wide-ranging discussions about the future, and in particular the future relationship between development in low-income countries and responses to climate change • help to develop effective long-term planning by: - exploring how viable your organisation’s current strategy or policy is, in a variety of different possible futures - developing new initiatives and identify potential areas for collaboration - identifying next steps The workshop process can also contribute to increased organisational resilience by: • raising awareness of the potential impacts of climate change • developing a culture that considers issues that are not generally thought about today, but may become pertinent in the long term • rehearsing contingency strategies 2

how to use this document This document outlines several stages of a workshop process designed to get the most out of the four scenarios detailed in the report ‘the future climate for development.’ We’ve suggested approximate timings for each session, but most of the exercises that use the scenarios will benefit from longer if you have the time available. This suggested agenda is designed to be applicable to a wide range of organisations, including business, government departments in both developed and developing countries and NGOs. You can apply the process to the organisation as a whole, or just your specific department or team. Often the most interesting and surprising outcomes are generated by bringing in people from outside your organisation, so if there’s scope to invite other stakeholders to your workshop, so much the better. The structure suggested here is flexible, and you should pick the sessions that are most relevant for your organisation. We recommend that you always include an ‘introductory’ session at the start, and a ‘next steps’ session at the end as well as a session on ‘getting to know the scenarios’. How much time do you have available? Two days – you can do all the sessions outlined here One day – we’d recommend focussing on sessions 1, 2, 3, 4 and 8 Half a day – we’d recommend doing sessions 1 and 2, then 3 or 4, then 8

scenario workshop: agenda 1. Introductions | approx 45 minutes - Personal introductions from participants - Outline and agree objectives of the session - 20 year brainstorm | page 5 of this document 2. Getting to know the scenarios | approx 1.5 hours - Presentation of the four scenarios - using the presentation downloadable here - For each scenario, show the short scenario animations, downloadable from here - Group exercise and plenary discussion | page 6 3. Strategy testing | approx 2 hours - Is your current strategy fit for the future? | page 7

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scenario workshop: agenda 4. Generating new ideas | approx 2 hours - what could you do differently in the future? | page 8 5. Collaborative working | approx 1 hour - who is a potential partner? | page 9 6. Next steps | approx 1.5 hours - identifying core and contingent actions | page 10 7. Influencing the future | approx 2.5 hours - creating a vision | page 11 8. Final review of actions, reflections and wrap up | approx 30 mins - reflect on workshop discussions - revisit the actions to be taken forward and what next steps there may be - ensure you assign responsibility for each action

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1. introductions

the 20 year brainstorm The objective of this session is to open minds to the possibility that the future could be radically different from the present. The exercise can either be done as a plenary brainstorm, or within smaller groups. In ‘the future climate for development’ scenarios, we’re looking 20 years ahead to 2030. In order to appreciate how much might change between now and then, we look 20 years back to see what’s happened since then. As a group, discuss the following questions: - What has changed over the last 20 years? - What major, world events have taken place? - What do we do differently now, compared to 1990? Identify the main changes that have occurred. And discuss if they were anticipated at the time?

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Think about: - how people work - how people communicate - how people move around

2. getting to know the scenarios

a day in the life Before using the scenarios, it’s critical to get to know them better. This session is vital for people to engage more deeply with the scenarios. Without this engagement, the following sessions will be much less powerful. • Split into small groups (2-8 people) • Each group will focus on one scenario • The groups should then do as follows: - read through the scenario individually - take 10 minutes to discuss initial thoughts and reactions to the scenario as a group. Try not to think ahead to the implications for your organisation - try to imagine your own life in this scenario: how would it have changed? - create short stories to imagine what You could do this for… other people’s lives might look like A business entrepreneur in in this world West Africa - use post-its or flipcharts to capture A small-scale farmer in South Asia the details A politician in Latin America • Each group then feeds back to all A mother of two in an urban slum 7

3. strategy testing

is your current strategy fit for the future? The objective of this session is to go through the scenarios and explore how your current strategy, unchanged, would perform in each scenario. It demonstrates how robust – or vulnerable – your current strategy is. • Split into groups each group focussing on one scenario. Suspend disbelief: imagine your scenario is an accurate description of reality and ask the following questions: • Would your current strategy succeed in this scenario, and why? • What are the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats for your current plans in each scenario? • What can you do to seize the opportunities and mitigate the risks you have identified? Write notes and actions on post-its or a flipchart, then feedback to all.

Once everyone has fed back, discuss the following: - Are there any common strategic themes that appear in more than one scenario? - If so, discuss how they can be prioritised into actions? 8

4. generating new ideas

what could you do differently in the future? The objective of this session is to generate ideas for new ways of working in the future. Groups stay with their specific scenario. Put aside your current strategy for a moment and ask yourselves: • In this world, what needs would my organisation be trying to meet? For example, to eliminate poverty, or prevent malnourishment • How might that be achieved? • What could the organisation look like? • What are the policies, skills and processes it would need? Try to think as freely as you can, and capture all the ideas, even if (and especially if!) they are very different from the way things are done today. Capture ideas on a flipchart or post-its. Share your group’s key ideas with everyone and discuss in plenary. Once everyone has fed back, discuss the following: - How different are the new ideas compared to your current strategy? - Do any of the ideas come up in more than one scenario? Should they therefore be implemented or planned for? 9

5. collaborative working:

who is a potential partner? The objective of this session is to explore the potential for future collaboration with other organisations – both within and beyond your sector. Using the scenarios can help explore common aims and identify differences in approach. Groups stay with their specific scenario. Pick out from the scenarios a number of key challenges facing the development sector and ask what collaboration between partners could achieve in addressing them. • For example, who could you collaborate with to enable climate–resilient development? • Based on the key ideas that you’ve identified in other sessions, think about what partnerships could help deliver these. Try to look beyond the ‘usual suspects’ Of course, if you can do this exercise with potential partners in the room, so much the better. Once everyone has fed back, discuss the following: - Have any potentially fruitful opportunities for collaboration been identified? - Do any of these occur in more than one scenario? Should they therefore be implemented? 10

6. next steps

identifying core & contingent actions The objective of this session is to identify your ‘core’ and ‘contingent’ actions. ‘Core’ actions are ones that you need to implement now, or plan to implement in the future. If you have an answer to one of the above questions that is common to all four scenarios, this indicates a need to change your strategy accordingly. ‘Contingent’ actions are ones that you might need to implement, depending on how the future unfolds. For example, a new idea might only be relevant in one scenario – but if it’s a significant possibility in that world, then it’s worth planning for.

In plenary, discuss the following: In previous sessions – including ‘strategy testing’ and ‘generating new ideas’ – you will have identified several ideas from the different scenarios. Try to separate these into ‘core’ and ‘contingent’ actions. So how do you know when to put your ‘contingent’ plans into action? The best way to do this is to map out the ‘signposts’ for each of the scenarios that are pertinent to your organisation. Signposts - in your scenario groups, try to list ten things that you might see if the world is moving in the direction of each of the scenarios, then share these with everyone else. If you start to see these signposts coming to life – in newspaper headlines, or in political talks – then you can return to your contingent action plan and consider if the time is right to begin putting it into 11 place.

7. influencing the future

creating a vision The objective of this session is to create a preferred view of the future. This can be very powerful and motivating. Everyone works in plenary for this exercise. Take the elements of each scenario that you like best, and use them to form a new, preferred scenario, or a vision of the best possible future. Then ask yourselves: • What would need to happen for that scenario to come true? • Who would need to do what, and when? • How can you intervene to help?

Try to identify: - Whether everyone agrees on a preferred vision of the future – differences in opinion can be illuminating - The key lever points where action will be most effective - Next steps and tangible actions to address the key lever points 12

If you have any questions about the materials and agenda, or would like further support in structuring your workshop, please contact Forum for the Future Jemima Jewell | [email protected] or call +44 (0)20 7324 3652 To download the full report and presentation or to watch the animations click here: www.forumforthefuture.org/projects/the-future-climate-for-development www.forumforthefuture.org/project/the-future-climate-for-development