Gateway/Pathway Programs for Flight Pilot Supply Forecast
©2016 University of North Dakota
Can the number of new pilots entering the workforce in the future be predicted based upon trends and other variables? − Yes. UND’s forecast model currently predicts future pilots at around a 78% accuracy. − The two primary variables which determine the number of new pilots in the future are: 1. Current pilot hiring activity at major airlines 2. The cost of pilot training
©2016 University of North Dakota
Historic and New Commercial Pilots (1990-2015) 160000
18000
140000
16000
Total Population
12000 100000 10000
80000 8000 60000 6000 40000
4000
20000
2000
0
0
Total Commercial Population
©2016 University of North Dakota
New Commercial Pilots
14000
120000
New Comm Pilots
Source: FAA Airmen Statsics
US and Foreign Citizens Taking the Commercial Airplane FAA Knowledge Exam 7000
60%
6000
50%
5000
40%
4000 30% 3000 20%
2000
10%
1000 0
0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
US Citizen Source: FAA ASF 630 Office ©2016 University of North Dakota
Foreign Citizen
Percentage
Historic and New CFIs (1990-2015) 120000
9000
8000 100000 7000
6000
5000 60000 4000
40000
3000
2000 20000 1000
0
0 19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015 Total CFI Population
©2016 University of North Dakota
New CFIs
Source: FAA Airmen Statsics
New CFIs Added
Total CFI Population
80000
Why use CFIs as the predicted variable for supply? – On the civilian-side, a Certified Flight Instructor certificate is almost de facto required • Bases on the PSS 2015, 84% of civilian pilots had a CFI certificate • R-ATP and ATP Hour Requirements
– Avoids the confounding issue of foreign students training in the United States • In 2004, for almost every 6 US pilots training in America, there was 1 foreign student • From 2010 to 2015, that ratio was almost 1 to 1 – This can be viewed as a positive as this provides flight instructing opportunities for US CFIs ©2016 University of North Dakota
Candidate Predictor
Potential Data Source(s)
Disposition
Starting pay at regional airlines
Airlinepilotcentral.com; UND Contracts Database
No relationship found
High school student interest in aviation careers
National Research Center for College and University Admissions (NRCCUA)
No relationship found
Prestige of being an airline pilot
General Social Survey (GSS); Gallup
No meaningful historical data source found
Job satisfaction of being an airline pilot
General Social Survey (GSS)
No meaningful historical data source found
Cost of flight training
Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association (AOPA); University Aviation Association (UAA)
Relationship found in model
Hiring at major airlines
Future and Active Pilot Advisors (FAPA)
Relationship found in model
©2016 University of North Dakota
First Predictor: – Hiring at Major Airlines – Source: www.fapa.aero • Airlines used: • United, American, Southwest, Delta, FedEx, Continental, Northwest, JetBlue, UPS, AirTran, America West, US Airways, Alaska, ATA, ABX • Consolidation has obviously occurred, but these airlines (or their surviving carriers) were used as the original data source all the way back to 1990
©2016 University of North Dakota
Historical Major Hiring (Source: FAPA) 6000
5105 5000
4721
4000 3567
3414
3511
3429
3408 3053
3000
2766
2604 2406 2000
2369
2301
2443
1720 1359
1299
1199
1084
851 854
1000
748
547
553
408 30
0 2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
©2016 University of North Dakota
Second Predictor: – Change in cost of obtaining Private Pilot Certification adjusted for inflation – Source: University Aviation Association (UAA) • Periods reported 1989, 1994, 1999, 2003, 2008, 2012 and 2016 • Straight-line interpolation used inter-period and through 2016 (2016 was determined by a collected data from several UAA schools) • Not all schools reported in each period, incongruent data removed
©2016 University of North Dakota
Historical Cost of Private Pilot Certification (Source: UAA), Inflation Adjusted 7000.00
6000.00
5000.00
4000.00
3000.00
2000.00
1000.00
0.00 2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
©2016 University of North Dakota
The Supply-Side Model: y = .153x - .338z - .001xz + 4408 Where: y = Future Certified Flight Instructors; x = Number of pilots hired at major airlines; z = Dollar change in cost of obtaining Private Pilot certification (adjusted for inflation). Adj. R2 = .778; F(3,17) = 24.34, p
