Global warming and climate protection • Human activites (industry, transportation, energetics, etc.) have impact on atmospheric processes. • Global consequences:
Nuclear Energy and Sustainable Development
– Ozone depletion („ozone hole”) – Global climate change (global warming)
Lecture 6 Global warming and climate protection 2015-2016 Spring semester
Bogdán Yamaji, Barnabás Tóth BME NTI The preparation of this presentation was assisted by Barnabás Tóth and Ildikó Boros Nuclear energy and sustainable development
Bogdán Yamaji, BME NTI
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Ozone depletion, Global warming Phenomena: Ozone depletion
Rate of skin cancer increases Radical climate change
Reason:
Chlorofluorocarbons (CFC) used as refrigerants, propellants and solvents
Greenhouse gases emitted by industry, transportation, agriculture, energetics
Measure:
1987: Montreal Protocol
1997: Kyoto Protocol
Result:
The atmospheric CFC concentrations have levelled off or decreased. The ozone layer is expected to recover by 2050.
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Ozone (O3) • Low level ozone (tropospheric) is an atmospheric pollutant. It plays role in smog formation. • Stratospheric ozone is essential because it is the main absorber of the Sun’s UV radiation.
Global warming
Effect:
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• The thickness of the ozone layer is largest towards the poles and smallest near the equator.
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Ozone (O3)
Ozone layer depletion
• Production: Short-wave UV rays reacting with oxygen O2 + hv → O + O O + O2 → O3 • Destruction: also due to UV rays O3 + hv → O2 + O • Normally these processes (Chapman-reactions) keep balance, thus the concentration of ozone is constant (about 300 DU – Dobson Unit) in the stratosphere. Nuclear energy and sustainable development
Bogdán Yamaji, BME NTI
• Dobson Unit: unit of the ozone concentration • Meaning: – All the ozone over a certain area (total-column ozone) is brought to STP state (0°C temperature, 1 bar pressure) – This ozone is compressed into a layer – 0.01 mm thickness of this slab refers to 1 DU concentration – Usual ozone concentration in the stratosphere is 300-500 DU 5
Ozone (O3)
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Ozone layer depletion • 1985: British scientists* measured at the British Antarctic Survey stations that the atmospheric ozone concentration decreased to 200 DU from 300 DU (this was so dramatic result that it was thought to be wrong result and was repeated with new instruments.) • 1994: atmospheric ozone concentration is the half of the value measured in the ‘60s over Antarctica. *Farman, J. C., B. G. Gardiner, and J. D. Shanklin. 1985. Large losses of total ozone in Antarctica reveal seasonal ClOx/NOx interaction. Nature 315: 207-10. http://www.ciesin.org/docs/011-430/011-430.html
Ozone concentration over Antarctica
Ozone production and depletion in the atmosphere Nuclear energy and sustainable development
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Ozone layer depletion
Ozone layer depletion
• The main culprit: CFCs (Chlorofluorocarbons). • The CFCs gets up to high stratosphere where they decompose under UV radiation. The produced free chlorine reacts with ozone: Cl + O3 -> ClO + O2 ClO + O -> Cl + O2
• The result: destructed ozone molecule and a free chlorine atom that can react again. • Similar processes happens with bromine compounds. Nuclear energy and sustainable development
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CIO and ozone concentration over Antarctica 9
Ozone layer depletion
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Ozone layer depletion
• Most of the CFCs were emitted by developed countries, but global atmospheric circulation processes transported them to the poles. On the other hand, ozone depletion processes occurs more easily at low temperatures and that is why the ozone hole was first formed over Antarctica. • In the ‘90s, ozone depletion was observed over the North Pole and over inhabited areas, too.
Ozone concentration over Antarctica Nuclear energy and sustainable development
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The Montreal Protocol
Ozone layer depletion
• 1987, Montreal: international treaty designed to protect the ozone layer: production of CFCs has to be halved by 1998 • 1992: ozone hole endangers densely populated areas on the northern hemisphere
1992, Copenhagen Amendment Changes in ozone concentration in Switzerland and TOMS – Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer, according to NASA measuring system Nuclear energy and sustainable development
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Ozone layer depletion
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The Montreal Protocol • 1992, Copenhagen Amendment: CFCs (and halons, carbon tetrachloride, methyl chloroform) were targeted for complete phase-out by 1995 in developed countries. • The previous, 1.2 million tons annual production of CFCs has stopped. • Until 2009 January Montreal Protocol has been ratified by all countries http://ozone.unep.org/new_site/en/treaty_ratification_status.php?treaty_id=4&country_id=&srchcrit=1&input=Display
Changes in ozone concentration over North Pole Nuclear energy and sustainable development
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The Montreal Protocol
The Montreal Protocol
• Result:
• Result:
– Stratosphere’s free chlorine concentration has stopped increasing and slow decrease is expected in the next years
– Growth of “ozone hole” has slowed down, total recovery is expected by 2050 according to WMO (UN’s meteorological organization)
Changes in average area of ozone hole
Global problems can be solved with appropriate regulations! The Montreal Protocol’s short- and long-term effects on CFC concentrations Nuclear energy and sustainable development
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Global Warming
Facts:
Facts:
• Since 1861 (start of instrumental observation) the 1990s and 2000s were the warmest decades, past winters have broken warmth records in Europe
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Global Warming
• Warming was detected in the bottom and middle layer of the troposphere • Warming can be detected in the oceans’ 3 km top layer • Sea level increased about 17 cm in the 20th century
• Since the end of the 1950s global average temperature has increased by 0.1 ºC in every decades in the lower 8 km of the atmosphere
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• In the last two decades global average temperature was higher than in any year before 1995
• Since the early 20th century, the global air and sea surface temperature has increased by 0.74 ºC
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• There is observational evidence for an increase in intense tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic since about 1970, correlated with increases of tropical sea surface temperatures. 19
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Global Warming
Global Warming
IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-spm.pdf Nuclear energy and sustainable development
Facts:
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Retreating glacier in The Alps 21
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Global Warming
Global Warming
The facts - 2012:
• Average snow cover extent has decreased 10% since the end of the ´60s, rivers and lakes on the Northern Hemisphere are frozen two weeks shorter on the average.
• The decade 2001-2010 was the warmest since records began in 1850 – Warmest year: 2010 – The highest level of tropical cyclone activity on record for the North Atlantic basin Anthropogenic global warming or natural changes?
– Global land and sea surface temperatures were estimated at 0.46 ºC above the long-term average (1961-1990) of 14.0 ºC http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/press_releases/pr_943_en.html
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Anthropogenic global warming or natural changes? 24
The greenhouse effect • Solar radiation at the frequencies of visible light largely passes through the atmosphere to warm the planetary surface, which then emits this energy at the lower frequencies of infrared thermal radiation. • This is the wavelength range (4-20 µm) in which greenhouse gases, such as water vapour (H2O), carbon-dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), chlorofluorocarbons (CFC), or ozone (O3) are more absorbent.
Source: zebu.uoregon.edu Nuclear energy and sustainable development
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The greenhouse effect
W.M Welch Scientific Company: "Chart of Electromagnetic Radiations." Lawrence Livermore Ntnl. Lab. flickr: https://www.flickr.com/photos/llnl/9403051123/ Nuclear energy and sustainable development Bogdán Yamaji, BME NTI
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The greenhouse effect
Main greenhouse gases and their sources http://grida.no Nuclear energy and sustainable development
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Global Warming
Global Warming • In 2004, Annex I group (including 20% of the world’s population, developed and transition economies) was responsible for 46% of global emission where average emission was 16.1 t CO2/capita, for the others it was 4.2 t CO2/capita.
The main culprit: CO2
Distribution of regional per capita GHG emissions according to the population of different country groupings in 2004, IPCC, Fourth Assessment Report, 2007
• Power plants, transportation, intensive agriculture • Main producers are industrialized countries
World’s top carbon-dioxide emitter counties http://en.wikipedia.org
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The greenhouse-gas emission in Brazil
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Global Warming
• High share of low-carbon energy sources yields a low figure for energy-related CO2 emissions, 409 million tons in 2011. • This is one-quarter of the energy related emissions in Russia, even though the Brazilian economy is one-fifth larger.
Carbon-dioxide cycle http://www.earthonlinemedia.com/ebooks/tpe_ 3e/earth_system/carbon_cycle_NASA.jpg
A széndioxid körforgása Source: OECD IEA WEO 2013 Nuclear energy and sustainable development
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Global Warming
The greenhouse effect February 2016:
404.02 ppm
February 2015:
400.26 ppm
February 2014:
397.91 ppm
February 2013:
396.80 ppm
February 2012:
393.54 ppm
February 2011:
391.76 ppm
2010: 388 ppm
Carbon-dioxide emission of power sources for producing electricity http://www.hitachi.com/environment/showcase/solution/energy/images/img_atomic/atomic_04.jpg
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http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/co2_data_mlo.html
The greenhouse effect
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Global Warming Mauna Loa volcano, 3397 m
Point Barrow, Alaska, ~0 m
The Earth’s surface temperature for the past (a) 140 years (b) 1000 years
What causes global warming?
Source: IPCC
•Natural processes? Changes in carbon-dioxide concentration at international measuring positions and in Hungary (K-puszta)
•Human intervention? •Both of them?
K-Puszta, Hungary (next to Kecskemét) Nuclear energy and sustainable development
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Global Warming
Global Warming • Anthropogenic origin is unequivocal for certain gases Temperature estimates relative to today from over 800,000 years of the EPICA ice cores in Antarctica. Source: wikipedia.org
• Radiative forcing is used to characterize their effect: positive forcing is tend to warm the surface, while negative forcing tends to cool it
Years
Drastic temperature fluctuation has occurred several times in the history of the Earth Concentration of anthropogenic greenhouse gases
It may be natural, but… Nuclear energy and sustainable development
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Nuclear energy and sustainable development Source: IPCC
Global Warming
Radiative forcing is a measure of the influence that a factor has in altering the balance of incoming and outgoing energy in the Earthatmosphere system and is an index of the importance of the factor as a potential climate change mechanism.
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Global Warming The main anthropogenic greenhouse gases: • The current concentration of CO2 is higher than it ever was in the past 740 thousand years and maybe in the past 20 million years. • Atmospheric CO2 concentration has increased 31% since 1750. • CO2 concentration has been increasing 0.4% annually since the beginning of the 1980s. • The atmospheric concentration of methane has doubled since the Industrial Revolution, growth rates have declined since the early 1990s. • The atmospheric concentration of nitrous oxide has increased 17% since 1750 and it is increasing at an accelerating rate nowadays. Source: IPCC
Heat-retaining effect of the main greenhouse gases Nuclear energy and sustainable development
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Global Warming
IPCC – Emission scenarios
• According to IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change): • „There is some evidence of the impact of human climatic influence”
The rise of the temperature assuming natural, anthropogenic and both effects Nuclear energy and sustainable development
Source: IPCC
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Source: IPCC
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Global Warming
CO2 emission, CO2 concentration, SO2 emission, global temperature change, sea level rise according to different scenarios Nuclear energy and sustainable development
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Global Warming
Evolution of the Radiative Forcing of anthropogenic greenhouse gases according to different scenarios Source: IPCC 43
Source: IPCC Nuclear energy and sustainable development
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Global Warming
Global Warming
Expected changes in global average temperature according to different scenarios
Expected sea level rise according to different scenarios
Source: IPCC
Source: IPCC Nuclear energy and sustainable development
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Global Warming
Projected surface temperature changes for the early and late 21st century relative to the period 1980-1999 for different scenarios Nuclear energy and sustainable development
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Effect of Global Warming in Europe
Source: IPCC
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Source: IPCC
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Effect of Global Warming in Europe
Global Warming
Changes in temperature and precipitation in the next 200 years. (Forecast of Global Warming using computer climatic models.)
Source: IPCC
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Source: IPCC
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Global Warming
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Global Warming
Less frequently mentioned effects of Global Warming: • diseases, epidemics (e.g.. malaria, cholera) – Pathogens can spread larger areas in warmer climate – Territory of disease-spreading insects and rodents increases
• Devastation of coral colonies • Frequency of forest fires increases • Hurricanes can reach the USA more often
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Global Warming
Global Warming
Source: en.wikipedia.org Nuclear energy and sustainable development
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Nuclear energy and sustainable development
Global Warming
Shutdown of Broecker-conveyor • Broecker-conveyor: global „conveyor belt”, water circulation connecting Atlantic and Pacific Ocean
• Broecker observed that very fast and drastic climate change processes had happened in the past 100 000 years, but in the past 10 000 years the climate is stably mild.
• Driving forces are salinity- and temperature-differences • North Atlantic Ocean section is the Gulf Stream
• He assumed that global conveyor circulations had played a great role in the large global climate changes.
• Shutdown if too much freshwater gets into (Increase in runoff of North-American rivers, Arctic ice melting, increase in precipitation)
* Conveyor, global conveyor belt, thermohaline circulation
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Global Warming
Shutdown of Broecker-conveyor*:
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Global Warming
Global Warming Shutdown of Broecker-conveyor • According to Broecker, the next process cyclically happened in the past: Partial melting of polar ice sheets
Global warming
Restart of Broeckerconveyor
A large amount of freshwater gets into the Broecker-conveyor
Ice sheets gain weight
Shutdown of Broecker-conveyor
The average temperature of Atlantic Basin decreases 10-15 °C Nuclear energy and sustainable development
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• This oscillation stopped 10 000 years ago, Broecker-conveyor is operating currently, global climate is uniformly mild since then. • Broecker-conveyor can shut down due to Global Warming again
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Global Warming Hollywood
Global Warming – Hollywood Shutdown of Broecker-conveyor
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The plot according to Hollywood: ☺ A paleo-climatologist, Professor Jack Hall, discovers that due to global warming, the polar ice caps are melting, which is lowering ocean temperatures. This triggers a massive climate shift which causes many natural disasters and eventually a new ice age. Too late everyone realizes this, and as they try to evacuate to the warmer south, for half of the northern USA, and Canada, it's already too cold to go outside. Meanwhile, Jack's son, Sam, is in Manhattan on a trip with some friends. Jack heads north to try and rescue his son, but the cold is a powerful adversary.
2007: Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth won 2 Academic Awards (Best Documentary and Best Original Song) Nuclear energy and sustainable development
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Global Warming – Hollywood
Global Warming – Hollywood
10 common misconceptions about Global Warming (An Inconvenient Truth):
10 common misconceptions about Global Warming (An Inconvenient Truth):
(http://www.read-the-truth.com/)
1. „Scientists disagree about whether humans are causing the Earth’s climate to change” In fact, there is strong scientific consensus that human activities are changing the Earth’s climate. 2. „Lots of things can impact climate – so there’s no reason we should single out CO2 to worry about.” Climate is sensitive to many things besides carbon dioxide – sunspots, for one, as well as water vapour. But this just proves how much we should worry about CO2 and other human-influenced greenhouse gases. 3. „Climate naturally varies over time, so any change we’re seeing now is just part of a natural cycle.” Cores taken from deep in the ice of Antarctica show that carbon dioxide levels are higher now than they have been at any time in the last 650000 years. 4. „The hole in the ozone layer causes global warming” There’s a relationship between climate change and the ozone hole, but this isn’t it. The hole in the ozone layer is due to man-made chemicals called CFCs, which were banned by the Montreal Protocol. The hole causes extra UV radiation to reach the Earth’s surface, but it does not affect the Earth’s temperature. The only connection between the ozone layer and climate change is almost the opposite of the myth stated above. Global warming could actually slow the natural repairing of the ozone layer. Global warming heats the lower atmosphere but actually cools the stratosphere, which can worsen stratospheric ozone loss. 5. „Temperature in some areas aren’t increasing, so global warming is a myth.” Global warming refers to the rise in the average temperature of the entire Earth’s surface due to increased levels of greenhouse gases. The surface temperature is rising, as are the temperatures of our oceans. Nuclear energy and sustainable development
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Effect of Global Warming in Hungary • According to the assessments, Hungary’s climate is going to be warmer and dryer due to Global Warming
+ 0.5 ºC
+ 1 ºC
+ 2 ºC
+ 4 ºC
Hungary (summer)
+1 ºC
+ 1.3 ºC
+ 2 ºC
+ 4 ºC
Hungary (winter) Hungary (annual precipitation) (mm)
+ 0.8 ºC
+ 1.7 ºC
+ 3 ºC
+ 6 ºC
- 40
- 66
uncertain
+40–400
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can’t ignore the causes and impacts of climate change any longer. We need to reduce our use of fossil fuels, through a combination of government initiatives, industry innovation, and individual action. Nuclear energy and sustainable development
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The Kyoto Protocol • Brundtland Report • On 1992 June 14th, they pulled the alarm at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro: we have to face with global environmental threats.
• The rate of warming initially exceeds the Northern Hemisphere's average
Temperature-change on the Northern Hemisphere
6. „Antarctica’s ice sheets are growing, so it must not be true that global warming is causing glaciers and sea ice to melt. ”Overall the ice is shrinking in Antarctica. Globally, more than 85% of glaciers are shrinking. The loss of ice doubled from 1996 to 2005. Greenland lost 50 cubic kilometres of ice in 2005 alone. 7. „Global warming is a good thing, because it will rid us of frigid winters and make plants grow more quickly.” Melting ice sheets are causing sea levels to rise, and if big ice sheets melt into the ocean, many coastal cities around the world will flood and millions of people will become refugees. Other predicted impacts include prolonged periods of drought, more severe flooding, more intense storms, soil erosion, mass species extinction, and human health risks from new diseases. 8. „The warming scientists are recording is just the effect of cities trapping heat, rather than anything to do with greenhouse gases.” This is simply wrong. Temperature measurements are generally taken in parks, which are actually cool areas within the urban heat islands. 9. „Global warming is the result of meteor that crashed in Siberia in the early 20th century.” Any effects would have been short-term, and could not be felt this far in the future. 10. „There’s nothing we can do about climate change. It’s already too late.” We
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• 154 countries accepted the basic document, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), until now about 175 countries have accepted • The requirement: in 2000 keeping the greenhouse gas emission levels at the levels of 1990 63
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The Kyoto Protocol
The Kyoto Protocol
• Conference of the Parties: – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
COP1: 1995 COP2: 1996 COP3: 1997 COP4: 1998 COP5: 1999 COP6: 2000 COP7: 2001 COP 8: 2002 COP 9: 2003 COP 10: 2004 COP 11/MOP 1: 2005 COP 12/MOP 2: 2006 COP 13/MOP 3: 2007 COP 14/MOP 4: 2008 COP 15/MOP 5: 2009 COP 16/MOP 6: 2010 COP 17/MOP 7: 2011 COP 18/MOP 8: 2012 COP 19/MOP 9: 2013 COP 20/MOP 10: 2014 COP 21/MOP 11: 2015 COP 22/MOP 12: 2016
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• The participants accepted the Kyoto Protocol in Kyoto in 1997
Berlin Genova Kyoto Buenos Aires Bonn The Hague Marrakesh New Delhi Milan Buenos Aires Montreal Nairobi Bali Poznan Copenhagen Mexico South-Africa Doha, Qatar Warsaw, Poland Lima, Peru Paris, France Marrakech, Morocco Bogdán Yamaji, BME NTI
• Requirement: between 2008-2012 reduction of greenhouse gas emission below the 1990 level by at least 5.2% (first commitment period) – USA: 7%, EU: 8%, Japan: 6%, Hungary: 6%
• Greenhouse gases: CO2, methane, CFCs • The USA has not ratified the Protocol!
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The Kyoto Protocol
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• The Protocol defines three flexibility mechanisms that can be used by Parties in meeting their emission limitation commitments. – Clean Development Mechanism (CDM): Project-based mechanisms, generates emission reduction. It is designed to encourage production of emission reduction in non-Annex I Parties.
• In 2001 the president of the USA (Clinton) declared that he would not submit the Protocol to the Senate for ratification.
– Joint Implementation (JI): It is designed to encourage production of emission reduction in Annex I Parties. The production of emission reductions generated by CDM and JI can be used by Annex I Parties in meeting their emission limitation commitments.
• The Russian State Duma (Lower House) ratified the Protocol on 22 October 2004. The treaty could come into effect 90 days after the ratification as it required the representation of at least 55% of the world’s greenhouse gas emission. Bogdán Yamaji, BME NTI
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The Kyoto Protocol
• Ratification of the Protocol means commitment, but it becomes the part of the domestic law only in case the country’s legislation ratifies it.
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Nuclear energy and sustainable development
– Carbon Emissions Trading (ET): is a form of emissions trading that specifically targets carbon dioxide and it currently constitutes the bulk of emissions trading. In an emission trading system, permits may be traded by emitters who are liable to hold a sufficient number of permits in system.
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The Kyoto Protocol in Hungary
Review questions
• The Hungarian government made a commitment that the Hungarian net greenhouse potential would be at least 6% lower between 20082012 than it was between 1985-1987.
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8.
• About two-thirds of national greenhouse potential is originated from the combustion of fossil fuels and that is why energy sector plays a great role.
9. 10. 11. 12. 13.
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Review questions 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23.
The history of global mean temperature and the concentration of anthropogenic greenhouse gases Model calculations, forecasts of IPCC: emissions, average temperature, etc. according to different scenarios Greenhouse gas emission in Brazil The global warming in Europe Broecker-conveyor, possibilities of shutdown Consequences of Global Warming in Hungary: expected changes in temperature and precipitation UN conferences, UNFCCC The Kyoto Protocol Flexibility mechanisms Hungary’s commitments and emissions
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Characteristics of ozone, production, destruction Definition of Dobson Unit and typical values Depletion of ozone layer, effects of CFCs The Montreal Protocol Copenhagen Amendment, results Evidences from the 20th century for Global Warming The greenhouse effect Main greenhouse gases, anthropogenic sources, lifetimes, changes in concentration Main greenhouse gas emitter countries, industries CO2 emission of power sources per electric-generating capacity Observatory monitoring: Mauna Loa, Point Barrow, K-puszta Global warming potentials Radiative forcing and its components
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