OVERVIEW OF TRADE FLOWS Global trends in food consumption
December 1, 2014
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GLOBAL MERCHANDISE TRENDS What’s happened in global trade in the last years?
How have exports evolved? Which are the key regions producing fruits? Which are the key drivers pushing fruit exports and consumption? How retailing and foodservice growth impacts on sales of fruit?
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World’s exports continue to climb
$20,000
Total World-to-World Merchandise Exports in US$ Billions
$18,000 $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 1980 1990 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Euromonitor International
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WTO volume trend and forecast Volume of World merchandise exports, 1990-2014 Indices, 1990=100
Figures for 2013 and 2014 are projections. Source: WTO Secretariat PRODUCE MARKETING ASSOCIATION
World AG exports near $1.8 trillion Total World-to-World Exports of Agricultural Products in US$ Billions $2,000 $1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $1980 1990 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: WTO Secretariat
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Asia Pacific produces 65% of world Fruits, followed by Latam with 11% Regional Fruit volume production 500,000
‘000 Tonnes
400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Asia Pacific Latin America Western Europe
Australasia Middle East and Africa
Eastern Europe North America Source: Euromonitor International PRODUCE MARKETING ASSOCIATION
Banana, Oranges and Apples lead fruit production in the world 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 10%
200,000 150,000 100,000
42%
50,000 0
Fruit
Other Fruits Cranberries/Blueberries Cherries Plums/Sloes Grapefruit/Pomelo Strawberries Peaches/Nectarines Lemon and Limes Pineapple Pears/Quinces Grapes Apples Oranges, Tangerines and Mandarins Banana Source: Euromonitor International
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Blueberries were the fastest growing fruits globally at 9% in 2013
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Grapes outsold cranberries/blueberries by 30 to one in volume
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Top 5 markets driving blueberries were Australia, Russia, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Venezuela PRODUCE MARKETING ASSOCIATION
Key fruit exporters include USA, China, Chile and Western Europe
Export 10%-20% in 2009-2013
Import 10%-20% in 2009-2013
Export up to 10% in 2009-2013
Import 5%-10% in 2009-2013
Source: Euromonitor International PRODUCE MARKETING ASSOCIATION
Drivers, constraints and trends
THE GLOBAL SUPERMARKET IS EXPANDING BUT NOT WITHOUT CHALLENGES PRODUCE MARKETING ASSOCIATION
INCREASE IN PTAS SUPPORTING DYNAMIC TRADE GROWTH
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POPULATION, BIG DRIVER OF TRADE GROWTH Population Growth in ‘000: 2011 through 2020 350,000 300,000
Developing regions present population growth of more than 630 million through 2020.
250,000 200,000
Developed regions present population growth of less than 50 million through 2020.
150,000 100,000 50,000 0
Asia Pacific Middle East and Africa
Latin America
Western Europe
North America
Australasia
Source: Euromonitor International PRODUCE MARKETING ASSOCIATION
POPULATION GROWTH IN AREAS SERVED BY TRADE
Millions of people
Urban vs Rural Population Growth: 2013-2018 Urban
800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100
Rural
World
Asia Pacific
MEA
Latam
Source: Euromonitor International
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Consumers buying their food rather than growing/producing their own
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Convenience becomes more important to consumers
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Food manufacturers able to reach more people
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Increased consumer wages and spending power in urban areas PRODUCE MARKETING ASSOCIATION
RISE IN DISPOSABLE INCOME SUPPORTS PURCHASING Regional Disposable Income: Historic & Forecast in US$ billions $25,000,000 $20,000,000 $15,000,000 $10,000,000 $5,000,000 $0
50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
Yr 2011 Yr 2020 % Growth
Source: Euromonitor International
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FOOD CONSUMPTION TRENDS Developing markets are critical to continued growth As they… Took in 56% of California’s tree nut exports and 33% of dried fruit in 2013 Relatively rapid growth in population & income Massive expansion of middle class Improving infrastructure and distribution Emphasis on Free-Trade-Agreements Adds to a diversified portfolio of trade partners
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REGIONAL GROWTH OF GROCERY RETAILING
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REGIONAL GROWTH OF CONSUMER FOODSERVICE
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REGIONAL CAGR: PACKAGED FOODS FORECAST
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DEVELOPING COUNTRIES CRITICAL TO VOLUME GROWTH
Source: Euromonitor International
Asia-Pacific, Middle East & Africa and Latin America are expected to combine for approximately 93% global volume growth in packaged foods from 2012-2017. Asia-Pacific is expected to be 65% of total global volume growth, and Latin America 11% of it. Western Europe and North America experiencing flat per capita consumption. PRODUCE MARKETING ASSOCIATION
PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION REVEALS OPPORTUNITIES Packaged Food: Kg Per Capita Consumption by Region 2014 to 2019
Australasia
400
North America
350 300
Western Europe
250
Eastern Europe
200 150
Latin America
100 Middle East and Africa
50 0
Asia Pacific
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019 Source: Euromonitor International
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GROWTH EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MOST AG EXPORTS
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