Overview of ICT trends – emerging insights Caribbean Region Seminar: Issues in Telecommunication economics and financing 10-13 September 2007, Antigua and Barbuda Regulatory & Market Environment Division Telecommunication Development Bureau International Telecommunication Union International Telecommunication Union
The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the ITU or its Membership.
Outline of the presentation Overview of general ICT trends: Caribbean region in the context of world ICT Correlation between ICT trends and ¾ Investments ¾ Tariffs Emerging trends
September 2007
2
General ICT trends Growth in fixed lines, mobile subscribers and Internet users
Worldwide
Caribbean Region
6.0
16
Millions
Billion s
5.0
18
14
Internet users 4.0
12 10
3.0
Mobile subscribers
2.0
8 6 4
1.0
0.0 1996
Fixed lines
1997 1998
1999 2000
2001
2002 2003
2004 2005
2006
2 0 1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Source: ITU Trends in Telecommunication Reform 2007: The Road to NGNs and ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database. September 2007
3
2006
General ICT trends Fixed-mobile substitution
Worldwide
Caribbean Region
3.0
6
2.5
5
2.0
Fixed lines
4
3
1.5
Mobile subscribers
1.0
2
0.5
1
0.0 1996
0 1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Source: ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Regulatory Database. September 2007
4
2006
General ICT trends Growth in Internet and broadband subscribers
Worldwide
Caribbean Region
350
Millions
400
100%
900
Total number of Internet subscribers
90% 80%
65.7% 70%
300
55.5%
60%
250 50%
43.3% 200
40%
30.8%
150
30%
22.6% 100
Total number of Broadband subscribers
15.2%
20%
9.5% 50
10%
3.6%
0
0% 1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Broadband subscribers as a %of Internet subscribers
800 700 600
100%
Thousands
450
90% 80% 70% 60%
500
43.5% 400
50%
40.5% 40%
30.5%
300
30%
19.4%
200
20%
5.7%
100
0.0%
0.1%
1999
2000
7.4%
10% 0%
0 2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Source: ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Regulatory Database. September 2007
5
General ICT trends Internet and broadband goes mobile worldwide
The designations employed and the presentation of material in this map do not imply any opinion whatsoever on the part of the ITU concerning the legal or other status of any country, territory or area or any endorsement or acceptance of any boundary. Source: ITU Trends in Telecommunication Reform 2007: The Road to NGNs September 2007
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General ICT trends: disparities Distribution of major ICTs by income group, 2006 100% 90% 80%
High 15,5%
9,3%
Upper-middle Lower-middle
34,6% 41,9%
Low
53,4%
70% 69,8%
60% 38,5%
50%
Americas' share of the global total for various services, 2006
10,9% 11,3%
40%
Population
36,4%
30% 20%
75,83%
16,7%
25,4% 11,02%
36,7% 21,7%
10% 5,8%
0% Population
Fixed lines
8,8%
5,2%
14.0%
7,4%
41,4%
12,3%
Mobile subscribers
11,8%
9,7%
21.5%
9,81%
10,0% 1,1%
Mobile Internet users Broadband subscribers subscribers
3,34%
Fixed lines
8,0%
23.5%
15,5%
Total GDP
Internet users Broadband subscribers
9,5%
5,3%
20,7%
30.2%
23,8%
Developing
29.1%
Developed
Source: ITU Trends in Telecommunication Reform 2007: The Road to NGNs and ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators Database. September 2007
7
General ICT trends ICTs become more equally distributed over time
Source: World Information Society Report 2007: Beyond WSIS, using data from the ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators Database September 2007
8
But disparities between regions persist 100
Caribbean countries
90 80 70
Penetration of majors ICT, 2006* Fixed lines
100 90
Mobile subscribers
80
Internet users
70
60 50 40 30 20 10 Broadband subscribers
40
Internet subscribers
Broadband subscribers
Internet users
50
Mobile subscribers
Internet subscribers
60
Fixed lines
0
30 20 10 0 Africa
Oceania
Asia
Europe
Americas
* Users per 100 inhabitants Source: ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators Database September 2007
Are these disparities caused by differences in investments and/ or services tariffs? 9
Investments Telecommunication investments as % of revenue Caribbean countries
EU countries
80
70 Barbados 60
50
Cuba
40
30
20 Jamaica 10
• Investments of the fixed incumbent operator in the EU in average reached 13.3 per cent of the received revenues; • Investments of the main mobile operator – approximately 12.7 per cent of their received revenues in year 2006.
0 1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Source: ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators Database and EC 12th Report on the Implementation of Telecommunications Regulatory Package - 2006 September 2007
10
Investments Telecommunication investments as % of GDP 5 US 4.5 4
OECD avg.
3.5 Ireland
3 2.5
Barbados 2 1.5
Cuba
1 Jamaica
0.5
Investments into ICT sector are cyclical. The duration, periodicity and ect. of these cycles are determined by many factors: • Current infrastructure; • Current and potential competition; • Technological development; • Existing and potential demand; • Timing of regulatory decision.
0 1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Source: ITU World Telecommunication/ ICT Indicators Database and OECD databases September 2007
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Effective Regulation Linked to Investment
Source: ECTA Regulatory Scorecard 2005 September 2007
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Investments: key drivers
Source: London Economics
September 2007
13
Tariffs: mobile services Mobile tariffs, by region, 2006 35
6.3% 30
77.2%
12.5%
25
US$
30.0% 16.2%
Mobile penetration*: Africa 21%
20
Americas 62%
15
Asia 29%
10
Oceania 72%
5
Europe 94%
0 Africa
Americas Asia-Pacific
Cost of 100 minutes of use (USD)
Europe
WORLD
as a % of monthly GNI
* Users per 100 inhabitants
Source: ITU Trends in Telecommunication Reform 2007: The Road to NGNs and ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators Database. September 2007
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Source: “Voice services in new growth markets”, presentation to the ITU Workshop, The Future of Voice (15-16 January 2007, Geneva), by Rauno Granath, Nokia September 2007
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Tariffs: broadband Broadband tariffs w orldw ide, 2006 250
Broadband penetration*: Africa 0.12%
745% 200
Americas 8.93%
150
194%
100 88% 50
Oceania 13.69%
5.8%
US$
Asia 2.71%
2.15%
Europe 11.02%
0 Africa
Americas
USD per 100kbit/s, 2006
AsiaPacific
Europe
WORLD
as a % of monthly GNI
* Users per 100 inhabitants
Source: ITU Trends in Telecommunication Reform 2007: The Road to NGNs and ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators Database. September 2007
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Broadband inequality… and it cause
Source: World Information Society Report 2007: Beyond WSIS, using data from the ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators Database September 2007
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Tariffs: broadband
September 2007
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Tariffs: broadband
Source: ITU Internet Reports 2006:Digital.Life
September 2007
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Tariffs: broadband
Source: World Information Society Report 2006 September 2007
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6.0
5.0
4.0
Average cost of ICTs worldwide, 2003-2005
3.0
2.0
120
- 40%
1.0
2003 100
2005
0.0 1996
1997 1998
1999 2000
2001
2002 2003
2004 2005
2006
US$
80
60
- 25%
40
- 23% 20
0 Mobile basket
20 hours' Internet
Broadband ($/100kbps)
Source: ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators Database September 2007
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Emerging trends Source: eMarketer,2003
• Demand and supply of the “ubiquitous”
connectivity – wireless networks
• Consumption and provision of global services • Technological
disintegration of vertically integrated structures of services provision
• All over IP
Source: Ministry of Economic Affairs, Netherlands September 2007
Source: The state of VoIP worldwide 2006
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Emerging trends Î From “one network, one service approach” to multi-service IP-native interoperable networks
Î Convergence of IP-based networks with telephone, mobile and TV networks to build more efficient NGNs
Î Reduced cost of deploying new networks that have more capabilities (voice, broadband, multi-media)
Î Towards always on services: anywhere, anytime, anything Î Which are going to be the main drivers of the sector? Î What regulation in the NGN environment? Î How developing countries will benefit from these trends? September 2007
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For more information on regulatory policy issues (research, data, publications), please visit: www.itu.int/ITU-D/treg
Trends in Telecommunication Reform 2007: The Road to NGN September 2007
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Thank you!
[email protected]
www.itu.int/ITU-D/treg September 2007
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