Outlook on Road Logistics for Finished Vehicles Dr. Wilfried Aulbur Managing Partner Roland Berger Strategy Consultants New Delhi, January 16, 2015

Contents

Page

A. Global trends in Automotive Road Logistics Market

4

B. Europe: A Benchmark in Logistics Competitiveness

10

C. India Landscape for Automotive Logistics

27

D. Models for Indian OEMs to Improve Outbound Logistics

40

E. Key Trends and Recommendations for India

45

F. Roland Berger Strategy Consultants India

51

This document shall be treated as confidential. RBSC does not assume any responsibility for the completeness and accuracy of the statements made in this document. © Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

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A. Global trends in Automotive Road Logistics Market

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A Global trends in Automotive Road Logistics Market

Logistics is a dynamic market impacted by a number of key trends Megatrends and impact on logistics Trend

Relevance Impact on Logistics

Example/cases

1

New Technologies

> Growth in new technology investments (e.g. RFID, inventory, automation) > Integrated logistics networks and real-time tracking of transportation value chains > New business models based on data mining/analytics

2

Outsourcing/ Cost Pressure

> Continued cost pressure on supply chain operations > Forward/backward integration of players in the supply chain > Reshaping of logistics hubs, less complex than of manufacturing footprint

3

E-Commerce & Digitalization

> New structures in the supply chain (e.g. bypassing of hubs, direct ordering, transparency) > Demand for value added services on B2B and B2C level (e.g. packaging, return deliveries) > Refinement of service levels (e.g. same day delivery, utmost flexibility)

4

Demographic Change/ Urbanization

> New logistical requirements in inner-city transportation and long-distance transportation (e.g. innovative approaches to first and last mile transportation) > Need for better utilization of both infrastructures and fleets (e.g. pooling, use of nonlogistics infrastructure)

5

Globalization of Operations

> Increasing logistics process complexity of global supply chains > New approaches of supply chain risk management > Greater exposure to unusual interruptions and disruptions of business processes

6

Regulatory developments

> Traffic gridlocks result in stricter regulations for urban transportation (e.g. tolls, bans) > Understanding and management of tariff and tax regulations becomes increasingly decisive, particularly in Russia, India, Argentina (e.g. local content)

7

Sustainability

> Establishment of green standards across the entire supply chain (mainly driven by industry players) > Use of more efficient vehicles, hybrids and alternative fuels

Low relevance Source: Roland Berger

High relevance 20150116_Outlook_on_Road_Logistics_for _Finished_Vehicles_vF.pptx

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A Global trends in Automotive Road Logistics Market

Customer requirements across industry sectors show that current pain points are driven by cost aspects or operational performance Impact assessment across industry sectors Impact on logistics

"Pain-points"

Not relevant

Very important

Key sectors

1 Complexity management 2 SC network optimization 3 SC standardization/modularization 4 Supply chain risk management 5 Service level management 6 Inventory management 7 Insourcing/Outsourcing 8 Supplier relationship management 9 3PL/4PL management 10 Integrated planning/scheduling 11 Route planning 12 Return delivery management 13 LEAN organization 14 Process automation 15 Data-enabled processes Automotive

Mechanical

Chemical/Pharma

Source: Roland Berger; Interviews; Analysis

Food & Beverage

Electronics

Metal processing

Transportation/LSPs 20150116_Outlook_on_Road_Logistics_for _Finished_Vehicles_vF.pptx

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A Global trends in Automotive Road Logistics Market

APAC dominates the key automotive logistics markets with over 50% share, total market is expected to reach ~USD 206 bn in 2018 Region wise split of global automotive logistics market (USD billion) 2.1%

3.2%

4.2%

5.9%

CAGR +6% 151.2 78.4

156.0 81.2

172.0

162.5

91.6

85.5

8.1%

186.0

11.1%

206.6

99.7

110.9 (54%)

APAC

+7%

49.2 (24%)

Americas

+6%

EMEA

+5%

36.5

37.5

39.0

41.2

44.5

36.4

37.3

38.0

39.2

41.9

46.5 (22%)

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

YOY Growth rate

Source: EMIS, Secondary Research

CAGR

Comments > The automotive logistics market in these key regions is expected to have a steady growth of 6% and the market size is expected to reach USD 206.6 billion by 2018 > The APAC market has the highest growth rate (7%) and is expected to reach USD 110.9 billion by 2018 > APAC is expected to increase its share during the forecast period because of a rise in the number of vehicles being produced in China, Japan, India, Thailand and Korea > It is also supported by a higher export demand from these countries

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A Global trends in Automotive Road Logistics Market

Finished vehicles logistics constitutes ~42% of the total Automotive logistics market & is expected to grow at 5% CAGR to USD 82.7 bn Market type split of global automotive logistics market (USD billion)

Comments > The share of finished vehicles in the overall market is expected to marginally compress as the trend for smaller cars increases

63.7 (42%)

65.5

67.8

70.9

75.5

87.5 (58%)

90.5

94.7

101.5

110.5

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

82.7 (40%)

Finished Vehicles +5%

> Finished vehicles logistics market was approximately USD 65.5 billion in 2014 and is expected to reach USD 82.7 billion in 2018

123.9 (60%)

Auto components +7%

> Auto components logistics market was approximately USD 90.5 billion in 2014 and is expected to reach USD 123.9 billion by 2018

2018

CAGR

Source: EMIS, Secondary Research

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B. Europe: A Benchmark in Logistics Competitiveness

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B Europe: A Benchmark in Logistics Competitiveness

10 of 20 best global economies regarding logistics capabilities are European, making Europe a benchmark in logistics SIX MAJOR COMPONENTS OF THE LPI's SCORE

ECONOMY

1. The efficiency of the clearance process (speed, simplicity, and predictability of formalities) by border control agencies, including customs

Germany Netherlands Belgium UK Singapore Sweden Norway Luxembourg US Japan Ireland Canada France Switzerland HongKong Australia

2. The quality of trade- and transport-related infrastructure (ports, railroads, roads, information technology) 3. The ease of arranging competitively priced shipments 4. The competence and quality of logistics services (transport operators, customs brokers) 5. The ability to track and trace consignments 6. The frequency with which shipments reach the consignee within the scheduled or expected delivery time Source: 'Logistics Performance Index - The World Bank

% OF HIGHEST RANK SCORE PERFORMER 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 15 16 20

4.12 4.05 4.04 4.01 4.00 3.96 3.96 3.95 3.92 3.91 3.87 3.86 3.85 3.84 3.83 3.81

100.0 97.6 97.5 96.6 96.2 94.9 94.8 94.4 93.5 93.4 91.9 91.5 91.2 91.1 90.5 90.0

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B Europe: A Benchmark in Logistics Competitiveness

Investments in logistics in Europe are well developing – Major share of investment in the UK and Germany, 110% YoY increase overall Investment In Logistics Infrastructure 2012/Q 2013 Country Belgium Czech Republic Finland France Germany Italy Netherlands Norway Poland Russia Spain Sweden UK TOTAL EUROPE Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, April 2013

FY 2012 180 17 29 1,320 1,600 40 345 165 495 335 85 805 3,200 8,800

Q1 2012

6 0 23 145 395 28 53 10 104 0 0 92 540 1,400

Q1 2013 15 0 35 240 540 24 33 0 13 0 0 138 790 3,000

YoY [%] YoY [EUR m] +9 -15 +12 +52 +95 +65 +145 +37 -4 -14 -20 -38 -10 -91 -88 +46 +50 +250 +46 +1,600 +110

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B Europe: A Benchmark in Logistics Competitiveness

Europe is a bright spot in the world for road infrastructure based on the continued focus on ensuring investments and execution Country wise road density [km of road per 100 km2 of land]

0-50

100-200

0-50

On an average, EU has 2x the road capacity compared to other developed nations

50-100

0-50 0-50

Source: Eurostat; Roland Berger

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B Europe: A Benchmark in Logistics Competitiveness

Distribution within Europe/CEE the is done via European, regional or national distribution centers; a model India can deploy post GST DISTRIBUTION NETWORK CONFIGURATIONS FOR CONTAINERIZED IMPORT CARGO (RETAIL) IN EUROPE Distribution based on RDCs

Distribution based on one EDC

Distribution based on tiered system (EDC+RDCs)

Distribution based on local DCs

TYPES OF DISTRIBUTION CENTERS

> European distribution centers (EDC) distribute to all European customers and supply regional and/or national distribution centers. An EDC is a distribution center which has outbound flows to customers or subsidiary national distribution centers located in multiple European countries > Regional distribution centers (RDC) typically distribute to a group of adjacent countries (e.g. Spain, Portugal and southern France) > National distribution centers cover local markets in a country

Source: Notteboom

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B Europe: A Benchmark in Logistics Competitiveness

Logistics hotspots are well distributed all over Western Europe and CEE – excellent coverage of all markets and countries… Logistics Hotspots Across Europe 1

Birmingham, UK

21

Oslo, Norway

41

Tallinn, Estonia

2

London, UK

22

Gothenburg, Sweden

42

Riga, Latvia Vilnius, Lithuania

3

Dublin, Ireland

23

Malmo, Sweden

43

4

Cork, Ireland

24

Stockholm, Sweden

44

Minsk, Belorussia

5

Amsterdam/Schiphol, Netherland

25

Helsinki, Finland

45

Gdansk, Poland

6

Rotterdam, Netherland

26

Copenhagen, Denmark

46

Warsaw, Poland

7

Breda/Tilburg, Netherland

27

Hamburg, Germany

47

Poznan, Poland

8

Venlo, Netherland

28

Berlin, Germany

48

Prague, Czech Republic

9

Antwerp, Belgium

29

Düsseldorf/Köln, Germany

49

Brno, Czech Republic

10

Gent, Belgium

30

Frankfurt, Germany

50

Kiev, Ukraine

11

Brussels, Belgium

31

Munich, Germany

51

Bratislava, Slovakia

12

Liège, Belgium

32

Geneva, Switzerland

52

Budapest, Hungary

13

Paris, France

33

Bern, Switzerland

53

Lyon, France

34

Vienna, Austria

54

Bucharest, Romania

15

Lorraine, France

35

Turin, Italy

55

Sofia, Romania

16

Madrid, Spain

36

Milan, Italy

56

Ljubljana, Slovenia

17

Zaragoza, Spain

37

Bologna, Italy

57

Istanbul, Turkey

18

Barcelona, Spain

38

Rome, Italy

58

Thessaloniki, Greece

19

Porto, Portugal

39

Saint-Petersburg, Russia

59

Athens, Greece

20

Lisbon, Portugal

40

Moscow, Russia

Source: Roland Berger

1

4

6

5 7 10 9 8 29 11 12 30

2

13

32 14

16 20

27

17

18

44

47

48

33

49 34

50

46

28

51 53

52 54

56

35 36 37

19

43 45

31

15

40 42

23

26 3

39

41 24

22

Székesfehérvár, Hungary

14

25

21

38

55 58

57

59

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B Europe: A Benchmark in Logistics Competitiveness

…the logistics hotspots are designed to cater to the centers of European populations and … Logistics Hotspots Mapped to Population Density POPULATION DENSITY [inhabitants/sqkm]

POPULATION Inhabitants / Sqkm Below 20 20-50 50-100 100-200

25

21

200-500

39

41 24

22

500-1,000

40

1,000-2,000

42 23

26 3

1

4

6

5 7 8 10 9 29 11 12 30

2

13

32 14

45

27

17 16

20

Source: Eurostat; Roland Berger

18

49 34

20,000-40,000

51 53

52

40 54

56

37

19

10,000-20,000 48

35 36

38

5,000-10,000

50

46

28

33

2,000-5,000

44

47

31

15

43

Logistics Hotspot

55 57 58

59

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B Europe: A Benchmark in Logistics Competitiveness

… GDP concentrations to ensure the most economic coverage Logistics Hotspots Mapped to GDP concentration EUROPEAN GDP [EUR m/sqkm]

GDP m EUR / Sqkm Below 20 20-50 50-100 100-200 25

21

200-500

39

41

500-1,000

24

22

1,000-2,000

42 23

26 3

1

4

6

5 7 8 10 9 29 11 12 30

2

13

32 14

45

27

17 16

20

Source: Eurostat; Roland Berger

18

49 34

20,000-40,000

51 53

52

No data

54

56

40 37

19

10,000-20,000 48

35 36

5,000-10,000

50

46

28

33

2,000-5,000

44

47

31

15

43

38

55

Logistics Hotspot

58

59

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B Europe: A Benchmark in Logistics Competitiveness

Looking at the latest GDP and retail sales forecasts per capita, the current set-up already fits to future developments RETAIL SALES PER CAPITA ANNUAL FORECAST GROWTH 2013-2018 [%]

GDP GROWTH [%]

Finland

Finland Sweden

Sweden 25

Norway 21

41 24

22

3 Ireland 4

19 16 Portugal 20

26 Denmark 1

Spain

40

Russia

Belarus

Ireland

47

United Kingdom

Poland

Netherlands Belgium Germany Luxembourg France

Ukraine Czech Republik Slovakia Austria

Switzerland

Turkey

Portugal

Spain

Bulgaria

Montenegro Macedonia Albania

Turkey

Greece

Cyprus

Cyprus

Source: DTZ Research; Roland Berger

Romania

Serbia Bosnia and Herzegovina

59 Greece

0.0%-1.0%

Moldova

Hungary

Slovenia Croatia

Italy

10

Malta

-6.1%-0.0%

Lithuania

Denmark

43 Lithuania 44 Belarus

45

Russia

Estonia Latvia

50 6 5 46 28 7 Poland Netherlands 10 9 8 29 Ukraine Germany 11Belgium 12 48 49 30 Czech Republik 51Slovakia Luxembourg 31 13 15 34 Moldova 52 53 33 Hungary Austria Romania 54 France 32Switzerland 56 Slovenia 14 35 36 Croatia Serbia55 37 Bulgaria Bosnia and Herzegovina 57 Italy Montenegro 58 38 18 Macedonia Albania

United Kingdom 2

17

39 Estonia

42 Latvia

23

27

Norway

Malta

5

1.0%-2.0%

2.0%-3.7%

No data

1

Retail sales per capita in 2013 (kEUR)

40

Logistics Hotspot

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B Europe: A Benchmark in Logistics Competitiveness

EU is already taking the next step… The "Zero to Ten" Strategy of EU for Transportation The Trans- European Transport Network

0% Defining1

2+ 3x 4th 5 €6bn

Source: European Commission – Transport

Setting a new target for CO2 emissions in major urban centres by 2030 Defining one single European Transport Area Accelerating the Single European Sky 2+ Three times more funding for transport infrastructure investment The Fourth Railway Package Cutting red tape for shipping across five key areas Six billion euros investment in transport research and innovation

7%

Seven percent annual cut in road deaths in the last five years

8

Eight aviation agreements signed to better connect Europe to the outside world

9

Nine major transport corridors to act as the backbone for transportation

10

Ten passenger rights however you travel 20150116_Outlook_on_Road_Logistics_for _Finished_Vehicles_vF.pptx

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B Europe: A Benchmark in Logistics Competitiveness

Let's take a deeper look at 3 key strategies, relevant for this forum… The Trans- European Transport Network

0% Defining1

2+ 3x 4th 5 €6bn

Source: European Commission – Transport

Setting a new target for CO2 emissions in major urban centres by 2030 Defining one single European Transport Area Accelerating the Single European Sky 2+ Three times more funding for transport infrastructure investment The Fourth Railway Package Cutting red tape for shipping across 5 key areas Six billion euros investment in transport research and innovation

7%

Seven percent annual cut in road deaths in the last five years

8

Eight aviation agreements signed to better connect Europe to the outside world

9

Nine major transport corridors to act as the backbone for transportation

10

Ten passenger rights however you travel 20150116_Outlook_on_Road_Logistics_for _Finished_Vehicles_vF.pptx

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B Europe: A Benchmark in Logistics Competitiveness

Strategy "x3" focusses on three times the funding for transport infrastructure in EU between 2014 and 2020 Strategy "x3"

> The Connecting Europe Facility, agreed by the EU in 2013, is a dedicated infrastructure fund for transport, energy and telecommunications in the EU’s seven-year budget programme up to 2020 > EU is increasing its financing for transport infrastructure by 3x to to €26 billion as a complement to the national investments for developing the TEN-T > This funding will focus on building the network’s nine major transport corridors, filling in missing cross-border links and removing barriers > The national investments of EUR ~250 bn are committed by member states toward the intra country completion of the TEN-T network

Source: European Commission – Transport

EU Infrastructure Funds

26

8 Euro billion (2007-2013)

Euro billion (2014-2020)

National investments committed to Infrastructure by member states till 2020

Euro

250

billion

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B Europe: A Benchmark in Logistics Competitiveness

Strategy "€6bn" focuses on the need for investment in transport research and innovation for the next 7 years Strategy "€6bn"

> The seven-year Horizon 2020 programme, from 2014 -2020, spending on transport research has increased by ~50% to €6.4 billion from previous budgetary period > This will enable the EU to reach its objective of cutting carbon emissions in transport by 60% by 2050, by funding public-private partnership projects such as Clean Sky 2, SESAR 2020, Shift2Rail, and the Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Joint Undertaking 2 > It will also help transport to tackle several challenges that threaten its wider competitiveness: to lessen dependence on imported oil, cut greenhouse gas and other emissions, and reduce congestion and raise competitiveness, drive economic growth and create jobs

Source: European Commission – Transport

Investments in R&D +50% focused on 60% reduction in CO2 20150116_Outlook_on_Road_Logistics_for _Finished_Vehicles_vF.pptx

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B Europe: A Benchmark in Logistics Competitiveness

Strategy "9" stresses on building nine major transport corridors which will act as a backbone for transportation in EU Strategy 9

> In 2013, the EU revised the rules governing the TransEuropean Transport Network (TEN-T) (designed to build by 2030), a core network of national railways, roads, airports, rivers and canals into an efficient network to connect all corners of Europe > Nine corridors, each one spanning several thousand kilometres, will form the backbone of the planned core network > Each corridor will include at least three different forms of transport, three EU countries and two cross-border sections > Ports will also be fully integrated into the corridors with proper onward rail and river connections to the wider network > 15,000 km of railway line will be upgraded to high speed ; 38 key airports with rail connections into major cities; 104 main European ports with rail and road links ; 35 cross border projects to reduce bottlenecks Source: European Commission – Transport

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C. India Landscape for Automotive Logistics

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C India Landscape for Automotive Logistics

40% of Indian logistics market is automotive related, of which 85% is based on road transportation Industry Wise Split of Indian Logistics Market

Mode wise split of Indian Auto Logistics Market

6,6% 17,5% 85%

Road

40,9%

35,1%

Comments > Out of the total India logistics market amounting to USD 107.11 billion in 2013, the automotive sector comprises of almost 41% of the market > In 2013, Indian automotive logistics market was USD 43.81 billion > Out of this, automotive road logistics for India was 85% of the overall market

Rail

Automotive

Consumer goods / FMCG

Source: EMIS, Roland Berger

Steel

Healthcare

10% 4% 1%

Sea Air

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C India Landscape for Automotive Logistics

PV sales are expected to grow at CAGR of 12% to reach ~ 4.8 m units by 2020; driven by a strong expected growth in luxury segment Passenger Vehicles market – forecast Comments

PV sales forecast ['000 units] CAGR FY14-FY20

+12.0% 4,793 310

1,494

2,468

2,534

2,571

2,431 119 526

18 233

155 3

99 359

60

418 1,136

788 568 21

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

1) Vans segment includes Maruti Omni/Eeco and does not include Tata Magic/IRIS Source: SIAM, LMC, IHS, Roland Berger Analysis

819 99

Vans1)

17%

UV

19%

Premium/ Luxury

84%

Executive

22%

Midsize

15%

Supercompact

10%

Compact

6%

Mini

6%

Micro

29%

> India is one of the biggest passenger vehicle markets in the world with annual sales of ~2.4 m units in FY14 > Mini, compact and utility vehicle segments constituted more than two-third of India's PV sales in FY14 > The PV industry shrank from FY13 to FY 14 owing to the slowdown in Indian and global economy > However, the PV industry in India is expected to grow at a CAGR of 12% till FY 2020; driven by growing middle class and increasing motorisation rate

FY20E 20150116_Outlook_on_Road_Logistics_for _Finished_Vehicles_vF.pptx

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C India Landscape for Automotive Logistics

CV sales are expected to grow at a CAGR of 12%, driven by revival in industrial activity & strong economic growth expectations Commercial Vehicles market – forecast CV sales forecast ['000 units]

Comments CAGR FY14-FY20

+12%

893

910

729

55 51

-22%

1,378 42 311

712

43 39 29 169 72

167

752

360

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

LCV Passenger

4%

LCV Goods

6%

M&HCV Passenger

5%

M&HCV Goods

11%

SCV Passenger1)

15%

SCV Goods2)

13%

> India's CV market shrank by over 22% in FY 14 owing to the slowdown in Indian economy > However, overall CV market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 12% till FY 2020 led by the SCV and M&HCV segments. > SCV segment is expected to grow by 13%; primarily driven by better connectivity, increasing urbanisation and rising rural incomes > M&HCV segment is expected to grow at 10 % mainly due to the improving infrastructure and increasing adoption of higher tonnage trucks

FY20E

1) SCV Passenger segment includes Tata Magic/IRIS and does not include Maruti Omni and Eeco 2) SCV Goods segment includes The 2W industry is expected grow at a CAGR of 12%, reaching a total sales of 29.5 mn units by 2020 > Key factors driving 2W sales growth are India are – growing proporation of young population, – moderate 2W penetration levels and increasing per capita income – under developed public transport system – over congested roads in Indian cities > Scooter segment is expected to lead the volume growth on back of shifting customer preferences 20150116_Outlook_on_Road_Logistics_for _Finished_Vehicles_vF.pptx

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C India Landscape for Automotive Logistics

The demand for road logistics for finished vehicles and the growth rate in road development are mismatched Sales figures ('000 units)

Comments 35,671

12.1%

1,378 11.0% 5,103 4,271 163 669 FY2002

17,943 712 2,431

4,793

PV CV

29,500

2 wheeler

14,800 FY2020

FY2014

Road network in India (length in '000 km)

2.8%

4,691

4,885 93 143

4,378 3,929

4,649

3,326

2000

2005

2010

2012

2014

Source: SIAM, IHS, Ministry of Road Transport and Highways, Roland Berger Analysis

National Highways State highways Rural & district roads

> The combined growth in volumes for automotive sales has been growing at a CAGR of 11% since FY02 and is expected to be ~12.1% by FY20 > The volumes will be primarily transported through the road networks which are already inadequate to handle the current freight tonnage > In the past 14 years the road networks have grown at a marginal 2.8% and as a result the road freight industry has been behind global competitive levels > Of the current road networks, a miniscule 0.02% of the roads are capable of high speed transport. This is significantly behind global benchmarks > Going forward the expected mismatch between the growth rate of sales of vehicles and the roads needed for transporting them is going to become a major issue 20150116_Outlook_on_Road_Logistics_for _Finished_Vehicles_vF.pptx

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C India Landscape for Automotive Logistics

It is estimated that India needs to spend ~USD 1 Trillion to improve its infrastructure competitive, with strong public-private partnerships Quality of Logistics Infrastructure1) Road Country

Rail Rank

Country

Port Rank

UAE

1

Japan

1

Japan Germany USA

Germany

8

Korea

10

USA

China

10 13 16 18 49

China

15 17

Thailand India

50 76

Russia

26

India

27

Brazil

122

Thailand

Russia

124

Brazil

Korea

> In India, quality of road transportation lags behind most of the countries compared > Majority of the roads are rural roads which are unpaved > Pot holes in city roads is another reason for bad quality of roads in India

Rank

Country Singapore USA

Rank 1

Netherlands USA Germany Japan Korea China

1 12 14

74

Thailand India Russia

54 76 81

China India Russia

37 58 71 79

95

Brazil

122

Brazil

113

> In Rail transportation, India has an improved performance yet it is out performed by most of its competitors > The improvement in ranking could be attributed to the good connectivity across the length and breadth of the country

Source: WEC -The Global Competitiveness Report 14-15

Country

Air

26 27 53

> Port infrastructure in India, critical for enabling export of vehicles, is weak and technologically inadequate especially for Automotive Industry > India ranks below most of its competitors

Germany Japan Korea Thailand

9 13 27 31

> Air transport in India has recently improved, but yet is plagued by issues of last mile connectivity and high cost of operation

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C India Landscape for Automotive Logistics

India faces significant gaps in timeliness and ease of tracking; govt. should take steps to eliminate roadblocks and implement GST Comparison of Logistics Capability and Performance1) Service Providers Country Netherlands Germany Japan

Rank 1

On-time Performance

Ability to Track

Country

Country

Rank

Singapore

1

6 8 18 28

Germany Japan

5 7 10

China

25 31

Thailand India

36 42

Brazil

65

Russia

119

1

3

Singapore Japan

5 14 22

Germany USA Thailand Korea

Brazil

27 29 31 49

Brazil

30 36 47 71

Russia

83

Russia

86

USA Korea China Thailand India

> Indian logistics service providers are significantly behind their peers in terms of performance

Source: World Bank – Logistics Performance Index

China India

Rank

USA Korea

> India fares poorly among its peers and competitors regarding frequency of delays in delivery

> Ability to track shipment is a critical function of the supply chain and even with one of the highest cellular penetration, India is behind its peers

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C India Landscape for Automotive Logistics

India's road transport efficiency is significantly behind the global average Road Transport Efficiency Indicators Indicator Average truck speed (in km/ph) Average truck distance covered in a year (kms) Average truck distance per day (kms) Total length of expressways (kms) Share of paved roads (%)

India Average

30

Global Average

Comments India's average truck speed is ~50% lower than the global average

70

Trucks in India cover only about 16% of the average global mileage

80,000

500,000

325

500 (BRIC) 750 (US & EU)

In India, a truck can only cover ~50% of the distance compared to US & EU daily

~1,000

74,0001)

India has a negligible %( Delays can be attributed to policy inaction, inefficient methods of environmental and other clearances, among others > However, it will be a key area of performance for the new government, with need for rapid and quantifiable progress on these key projects > Consistent government action at the centre and state level is required to overcome such bottlenecks Source: Ministry Of Road Transport & Highways, Transport Corporation of India, Roland Berger

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C India Landscape for Automotive Logistics

Procedural bottlenecks, land acquisition and funding issues are also attributable to the delays in the Dedicated Freight Corridor Network Dedicated Freight Corridor Network Ludhiana Delhi Kanpur

Ahmadabad

Project timelines Western Corridor – 1,490 km DELAYS Phases Length

Last year status

Expected completion

Phase I

920 kms

2009-2016

2011-2017

Phase II 430 kms

2010-2017

2012-2018

Phase III 140 kms

2010-2017

2013-2018

Calcutta Nagpur

Kharagpur

DFCs under execution

Mumbai

Length

Phase I

343 kms

2010- 2016 2011-2017

Phase II

390 kms

2010-2016 2013-2018

Kolkata - Mumbai (East - West)

Phase III

397 kms

2011-2016

2014-2019

Delhi - Chennai (North - South)

Phase IV

550 kms

2011-2016

2014-2019

Phase V

125 kms

2010-2016 2010-2016

Ludhiana – Dankuni (Eastern)

Vijayawada

Bangalore

Chennai

DFCs planned Kharagpur - Vijayawada (East coast)

Chennai – Goa (South - West) Route map for the proposed DFCs are approximate Source: DFCCI, DFC concept plan, Secondary sources, Roland Berger

Last year status

Expected completion

Phases

Dadri – JNPT (Western)

Goa

Eastern Corridor – 1,805 km

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D. Models for Indian OEMs to Improve Outbound Logistics

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D Models for Indian OEMs to Improve Outbound Logistics

Strategic, Operational and Efficiency improvement are the key areas for Indian OEMs to improve performance within the current infra. Business model of logistics operators 1

Strategic setup

2

Operational setup

3

Operational efficiency

Impact area

Key component

1.1 • Outbound logistics outsource strategy

• Outsource mode: General contractor vs. subcontractor

1.2 • Strategic impact of production base location

• Car model sales and distribution spread for each production base

2.1 • Logistics model selection

• Hub-to-hub/door-to-door/hybrid model selection based on cost, complexity and agility

2.2 • Transportation method and logistics network

• Percentage of major transportation (highway, waterway, railway) in volume and future trend and logistics network and route design

3.1 • Logistics cost management

• Key cost factors

• Business model of contractors (2PL, 3PL, 4PL) • Average transportation distance

• Pricing and settlement structures • Transportation cost management: Loading and unload ratio

3.2 • Quality control system

Source: Roland Berger analysis

• Major KPIs of passenger vehicle outbound logistics

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D Models for Indian OEMs to Improve Outbound Logistics - Strategic

OEMs need to consider the outsourcing model and their production footprint in relation to sales footprint as a part of their strategic setup > Logistics model selection critical > Indian OEMs mostly choose 3PL models

> Footprint must take into account anticipated sales > hotspots > Critical in dynamic markets

> Regular review of average transportation distance for each facility and model > Continuously optimize footprint for the OEM

Source: Roland Berger

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D Models for Indian OEMs to Improve Outbound Logistics - Operational

Operational setup of the OEMs in terms of logistics model and modes employed, drive the flexibility and costs of logistics network > Traditional hub-to-hub model, sometimes door-to-door and hybrid models > Hybrid model to combine s rapid response and reduced inventory expenses by making dynamic decision on model usage based on lot size, distance and demand pattern

> Critical: multimodal mix and dedicated mode for major hubs > Regular evaluation of changes and upgrades in infrastructure

Source: Roland Berger

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D Models for Indian OEMs to Improve Outbound Logistics - Efficiency

The strategic and operational setup will impact logistics efficiency and determine the market competitiveness of the OEMs > Transportation pricing strategy, must enable flexibility to ensure optimization during volatile sales periods > OEMs prefer a per unit vehicle price based on model, distance, destination, vehicles per trailer and unload ratio > Quality considerations and model variety drive the number of vehicles per trailer & the trailer technology used > Unload ratio is significantly affected by location of manufacturing bases and logistics model (hub-to-hub etc.) > Quality control system necessary to drive efficient outsourcing > With the increase in model types and fluctuating demand in the market, monitoring the performance is critical

Source: Roland Berger

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E. Key Trends and Recommendations for India

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E Key Trends for India

Trend 1 : Robust growth expected in the Indian automotive sector will increase demand for and complexity in the logistics market Rising automotive demand Impact

Sales figures ('000 units) CAGR FY14-FY20 +12.1%

4,792

PV

+12.0%

1,378

CV

+11.6%

29,500

2 Wheeler

+12.2%

2,431 712 14,800

FY14

Source: SIAM, LMC, IHS, Roland Berger Analysis

– Improve access to key logistics suppliers and enhance cooperation – Cooperatively plan capacities for effective utilization of capacities – Lobby with the Government to implement GST – Optimize own logistics and production footprints – Invest in driver capability building and make the profession more lucrative – Focus on Multimodal transportation to increase efficiency and reduce dependence on Road

FY20

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E Key Trends for India

Trend 2 : Rising logistics costs as a percent of sales, increasing fuel prices and wages directly resulting in ~2% higher cost in India Increasing logistics costs , fuel prices and wages Fuel prices and wages

32 2008

Petrol (Rs / l)

63

51 40

45 33 2009

2010

Diesel (Rs / l)

38 2011

193

177

163

148

134

122 46

Impact

73

38 2012

71

49

2013

Avg nominal wage index

Logistics costs as % of sales 2.5-3.5% 1.5-2.5%

1.5-2.5% 0.8-1.2%

India

China

Source: Secondary Research, Roland Berger Analysis

Japan

> OEMs in India are heavily dependent on road transport and older transport technology > To recover the 2% additional costs, key actions for OEMs are: – Increase efficiency and use multimodal transport solutions to achieve the benchmark multimodal mix – Work with specialized car-carrier manufacturers to develop India specific solutions to the enhance efficiency – Optimize network design and focus on collaborative logistics to reduce return load factors

Korea 20150116_Outlook_on_Road_Logistics_for _Finished_Vehicles_vF.pptx

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E Key Trends for India

Other trends like increasing types of car models, regulatory challenges and growing aftermarket affect auto logistics market Increasing car models, regulatory issues and growing aftermarket Trends

Impact

> Increasing number of car models in India in the near future– Due to changing consumer preferences, rising competition, it is expected that there would be an increasing number of car models in the near future, directly affecting the Indian automotive logistics market

– Tie-up with specialized trailer manufacturers to design efficient technologies best suited for Indian conditions – Trailers of different flexible sizes to accommodate different types of cars are needed for effective management – Due to increasing complexity, OEMs and suppliers need better and far more accurate forecasting than in the past – Both the OEMs and suppliers need better technology for real-time data for production planning in a far efficient manner

> Regulatory issues – Increasing regulations with respect to environmental and safety standards is increasing the cost and complexity of automotive logistics in India

– Lobby for faster implementation of GST – Focus on multiple modes of transportation instead of one to increase efficiency – Work co-operatively with suppliers to plan capacities

Source: Secondary Research, Roland Berger analysis

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E Key Recommendations for India

To build a competitive auto road logistics capability, India should follow the Europe example 1

Improving infrastructure –With rising demand for vehicles and bulk of the road network being poorly paved, there is a pressing demand to improve infrastructure to support intermodal services

2

Continuous investment – Continuous investments to improve the infrastructure is the need of the hour to increase capacity and service speeds significantly

3

Removing Red tape– Increasing regulations, high interest rates, complexities with respect to environmental and safety standards, complications in obtaining permits, use of inter-state permits, complex and opaque tax regime need to be done away with

4

Faster implementation of GST – Implementation of Goods and Services Tax (GST), which is meant to centralise certain taxes and help make India a common market across its state borders, will go a long way in building a competitive automotive road logistics capability

5

Completing pending projects – With sales of passenger and commercial vehicles expected to increase by over 11% in the coming years, pending projects such as the Eastern and Western corridors, NHDP and other NHAI projects in the southern part of the country need to be completed

Source: Roland Berger Analysis

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E Key Recommendations for India

Additional focus on increasing investment in research and innovation and improving safety on roads is required 6

Integrated Logistics Plan for India – Implementation of an integrated logistics plan for India is key for building a competitive automotive road logistics capability for India. Long term plan for 2030 instead of a shorter term plan for 2020 is required incorporating future projections of population growth, migration patterns, GDP and industrial production

7

Improving rail connectivity to reduce burden on roads – While only 2-3% of automotive freight currently moves by rail, initiatives should be taken to increase this level to reduce burden on the road network. Initiatives such as rail network through the AFTO and the dedicated rail freight corridor need to be expedited

8

Newer targets for CO2 norms in Urban cities – Following the Europe example, India should aim for an ambitious plan of CO2 free urban cities for cleaner cities and for reducing dependence on scarce fossil fuels

9

More investment in research and innovation required – Investment in research and innovation for the next generation of cutting edge cleaner, cost effective technologies leading to lesser dependence on natural resources

10

Improving safety on roads – Better road safety policies need to be implemented through the use of safety devices and modern technology, tougher rules on vehicle testing and enforcing stricter penalties

Source: Roland Berger Analysis

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Please contact us in person if you have any questions Your contact at Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Dr. Wilfried Aulbur Managing Partner Roland Berger Strategy Consultants India

Mobile India: +91 (0) 99 206 30131 Mobile Germany: +49 (0) 160 744 8282 e-mail: [email protected]

Source: Roland Berger

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F. Roland Berger Strategy Consultants India

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F

RB Credentials

More than 47 years of continuous growth have made us a top-5 player in the global strategy market Entrepreneurship at Roland Berger – Success

2013

Market position in the strategy segment Germany

#3 Growth regions China and Russia/CEE

Core markets in Western Europe World

Source: Roland Berger

#5

#3

#2

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F

RB Credentials

Based on mutual trust and success, we have become the long-time advisor of leading companies and public institutions world-wide Entrepreneurship at Roland Berger – Client base Our strong client base comprises:

30% 40%

of the global top 1,000 companies of the leading European enterprises

Public institutions in

75%

Source: Roland Berger

25% of all countries world-wide

repeat clients

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F

RB Credentials

The Roland Berger Automotive Competence Center has a truly global footprint More than 300 consultants worldwide Western Europe

USA

17 Partners 150 consultants 4 Partners

25 consultants

10 consultants

Eastern Europe

20 consultants

MENA

1 Partner

10 consultants

Source: Roland Berger

2 Partners 20 consultants

2 Partners

South America

2 Partners

Russia

Korea

3 Partners

20 consultants India

1 Partner

40 consultants

China/ Hong Kong

3 Partners

40 consultants Japan

4 Partners

30 consultants Singapore

1 Partner

5 consultants

> A global team of 300+ dedicated automotive consultants > Over 300 clients in the automotive industry > More than 2,000 successful projects since 2000 > Proven cutting-edge tools and methodologies > Thought leadership in the form of highly regarded studies and research

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F

RB Credentials

Our global automotive team advises blue chip companies right along the automotive value chain Overview of selected automotive clients Passenger vehicle Commercial OEMs vehicle OEMs

Source: Roland Berger

Suppliers

Financial investors

Retail/services and mobility

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F

RB Credentials

We have accumulated extensive project experience in various functional areas for many international clients Global automotive projects – Sales and marketing Selection of clients

Most relevant projects Corporate strategy, growth strategy > Long term strategy for a large automotive group > Market entry strategy for a leading luxury OEM Sales & distribution strategy, marketing strategy > Mid to long term sales planning strategy for a luxury brand > Dealership strategy and five-year for a large Chinese automotive group Product strategy and planning > Portfolio strategy of a Chinese company's products > New energy product strategy for a leading international company Brand strategy > Self-owned brand strategy for a large Chinese auto group > Brand repositioning for an int'l auto group's passenger vehicle products Aftermarket business > Conduct due diligence on aftermarket luxury car sales business > Help the biggest Chinese auto group design its aftermarket service strategy

Source: Roland Berger

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F

RB Credentials

We have conducted multiple projects focusing on dealer performance improvement in the recent years Global automotive projects – Dealer performance improvement Brands and retail groups

Selected projects 1

Major Japanese OEM

> Sales targets of all coached dealers are 100% fulfilled > Sales volume increased significantly

2

Large German based OEM

> Target dealer receive 99% positive feedback > Overall KPI improvement in all categories

3

Major European OEM

> Showroom traffic increased by 15% > Test drive rates increased from 38% to 51%

4

Major European OEM

> Trained coaches led own dealers to be ranked in top tier among group network

5

Automotive mega-retailer with 8 dealer groups

> Redefining business system to raise synergy potentials within affiliated group

Multi-brand-automotive dealer group with 7 dealerships 7 Automotive-mega-dealer with 30 shops 6

Source: Roland Berger

> Defined strategy for profitable growth > Professionalization of internal dealer mgt. processes > Development and implementation of performance program > Multi-Brand expansion

8

Automotive OEM with 4 brands

> Establishment of dealer academy in 5 European markets for general and executive sales managers

9

Luxury car importer in China

> Reorganisation of sales network and performance increase

10

Multi-Brand-Automotive dealer group

> Restructuring of locations and performance improvement

11

Multi-Brand-Automotive dealer group

> Turnaround Management und lead into profit zone

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F

RB Credentials

We believe that our network, project experience and local team guarantee you comfort and satisfaction for this assignment Value proposition Roland Berger India

1

Global network and presence in India: We have a global network with 53 offices in 36 countries and a local team with 40+ consultants in India located in Mumbai, Delhi and Pune

2

Broad project experience: We already have a broad and diversified customer base with extensive project experience in India and a proven methodology

3

Experienced management team: Our management team provides a good mix of relevant industry and consulting experience to guarantee project success

4

Local diversified consultants: We have a local team with project experience in all relevant industries

Source: Roland Berger

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F

RB Credentials

We have successfully advised a broad client portfolio from different industries in various strategic projects in India (1/2) Selected automotive OEM references in India Passenger cars

Commercial vehicles Two-wheelers

Typical projects > Market entry strategy for Japanese luxury OEM > Product portfolio positioning for global luxury OEM > Market entry strategy for European PV OEM > Market approach Korea for an international CV manufacturer > Market entry strategy in Bangladesh/Myanmar for a Japanese 2-wheeler distributor > Global KD template for a European Luxury OEM > Connectivity strategy for a global PV OEM > India strategy 2020 for European OEM > Alliance strategy for Asian CV OEM > Turn around concept for major Indian automotive player covering all aspects of the value chain > Restructure India business for European CV OEM > LCC sourcing for international automotive & construction OEMs > M&A Target identification for the world's largest 2-wheeler manufacturer > JV optimization for Indian 2-wheeler OEM

Source: Roland Berger

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F

RB Credentials

We have successfully advised a broad client portfolio from different industries in various strategic projects in India (2/2) Selected automotive & engineered products references in India Automotive suppliers

Engineered products Government

Ministry of Commerce

Source: Roland Berger

Typical projects > Indian market studies for European automotive supplier > India growth strategy for a Japanese supplier > India growth strategy for a business unit of a leading Indian automotive conglomerate > Product portfolio optimization & export strategy for major Indian supplier > Logistics study for automotive industry association > M&A and due diligence support for a leading Indian engineering services player > Commercial due diligence for an Indian engine and transmission manufacturer > M&A search in Europe & SEA for an Indian automotive supplier > M&A target identification in Europe & SEA for leading Indian supplier > Location strategy for a global auto component player > Off-set strategy for globally leading aerospace and defence players

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F

RB Credentials

We have conducted numerous research studies on the Indian market – Governments too rely on our studies (1/3) Selected Roland Berger studies India: India Chem opportunities and (2010) challenges (2009)

Green energy blueprint for India – report for CII (2020)

> Highlighting > Highlighting investopportunities in ment opportunities India for western available in Indian companies Chemical Industry for potential foreign > Case studies and domestic inwith success vestors stories

> Highlighting oppor- > Developing a roadtunities for India and map for distribution critical suc-cess and distributed gefactors for neration reforms in developing renewIndia able energy in India

Source: Roland Berger

Power sector reforms task force committee (2010)

India automotive study (2012)

India automotive logistics (2013) perspectives and solutions

> Assessment of opportunities and challenges in the Indian automotive sector

> Assessment of challenges and wary forward for Indian Automotive Logistics

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F

RB Credentials

We have conducted numerous research studies on the Indian market – Governments too rely on our studies (2/3) Selected Roland Berger studies India's Aerospace Driving economic Thermoprocessing & Defence Sector growth: India's Key Indian Market (2013) automotive industry Trends (2013) (2013)

> Study commissioned by Government of India > Highlighting opportunities in India for manufacturers

Source: Roland Berger

> Highlighting invest> Highlights imporment opportunities tance of Indian available in Indian Automotive Industry for wealth generation Chemical Industry for potential foreign > Case study of and domestic inGermany & France vestors

Security Manual for Private Companies (2013)

Rightsizing Europe (2013)

Developments in the US Chemical Industry (2013)

> Implications of the > The US shale gas > Recommendation revolution and its on the Draft Security European Crisis for implications for Indian suppliers Manual for Private India Industry – Assocham – 26 June 2013

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F

RB Credentials

We have conducted numerous research studies on the Indian market – Governments too rely on our studies (3/3) Selected Roland Berger studies Achieving Manufacturing Excellence (2013)

Battery Market- Key ITC(HS) trends and Classifications of opportunities (2013) Export and Import Items (2013)

> Study for CII > Approach to achieve Manufacturing Excellence > Need for action in India

> Report on > Paper Presented for > Department of Opportunities in Electronics and IT, Auto Tech Review at India Homeland the Battery Conclave Ministry of Security Market to Communication and Canadian IT (Govt. of India) Companies : > Codification for Canadian Trade Electronics Sector Commission

Source: Roland Berger

India Homeland Security Market(2013)

Necessary steps on 2025 Automotive our way to global Landscape (2014) excellence (2014)

> CII International > Assocham conference on Automotive world class Roundtable technologies in auto > Background paper sector on necessary steps > Background paper on our way to Automotive global excellence Landscape 2025

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Authors We welcome your comments and feedback! Dr Wilfried Aulbur

Managing Partner Roland Berger Strategy Consultants M : +91 99 206 30131 E : [email protected]

Harsh Vardhan Singh

Vandhna Babu

Senior Consultant Roland Berger Strategy Consultants M : +91 97 170 57770 E : [email protected]

Senior Analyst Roland Berger Strategy Consultants M : +91 88 009 07862 E : [email protected]

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