Outbound Canada Market Performance & Trip Intentions Jennifer Hendry Senior Research Associate Canadian Tourism Research Institute
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Today’s Presentation
• Tourism and the economy • Demographic changes – Canada’s aging population
• Outbound travel patterns – USA and overseas
• Summer travel intentions • Short-term outlook for sun destinations
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Economic Outlook and the Outbound Travel Market
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Canada’s Real GDP Growth % change, market prices (2007 $)
3.1%
3.1%
2.6%
2.5%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1% 1.7%
1.7% 1.2%
1.0%
2006
2007
2008
2009
-2.9%
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016f
2017f
At 1.2%, Canada had one of the worst performing economies in 2015. In comparison, GDP growth in the U.S. was 2.4%, while it was 3.1% globally.
Source: The Conference Board of Canada
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Real GDP Growth, by Province, 2016 % change, market prices (2007 $) BC -1.0%
2.8%
AB SK
0.8%
MB
2.4%
ON
2.4%
QC
1.7%
NB
0.9%
NS
2.2%
PEI NL Source: Conference Board of Canada.
1.8% 0.2% CANADA (1.7%)
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Where are oil prices headed? WTI Crude Price, US$ per barrel $100
-38%
$95
$72
$98 $94
$93
$79
-48%
$66 $62
$49
-29%
$56
$41
$41 $35
$26
$31
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis The Conference Board of Canada.
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016f
2017f
The Loonie and Oil Prices (USD/CAD, WTI $US) Dollar (left)
Oil Price (right)
1.10
120
1.05
110
1.00
100
0.95
90
0.90
80
0.85
70
0.80
60
0.75
50
0.70
40
0.65
30
0.60
20
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; U.S. EIA; Statistics Canada.
Exchange Rates & Household Spending • Loonie has lost 20% of value since 2013 • Real disposable income will average 1.9% annual growth 2016-17 • Household consumption is flat Economic Indicators (2015-2017) 2015
2016f
2017f
Real GDP (% change)
1.2%
1.7%
2.3%
Real Disposable Income (% change)
2.7%
1.9%
1.9%
Household Consumption (% change)
1.9%
1.8%
1.9%
USD/CAD (annual average)
$1.28
$1.34
$1.29
EUR/CAD (annual average)
$1.42
$1.44
$1.37
GBP/CAD (annual average)
$1.95
$1.86
$1.86
Conference Board of Canada (March 2016), Oxford Economics World Outlook.
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Employment Growth, annual % change 2.4%
2.3%
1.7%
1.7% 1.4%
1.3%
1.4%
1.5% 1.3%
1.4% 1.1% 0.9% 0.6%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.
2009
-1.6%
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016f
272,000 jobs lost
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Canadian Population Growth, 2015-2019 Atlantic
1.2%
QC ON
3.4% 3.8%
MB
5.0%
SK
6.1%
AB
7.5%
BC
5.1% 4.9%
North Canada
4.2%
Source: The Conference Board of Canada.
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Diversity of Canada’s Population Population (000s) Visible minority (000s) Rest of the population (000s)
2006
2031
% change (absolute)
32,522 5,285
42,078 12,855
29.4% 143.2%
27,237
29,222
7.3%
Source: Statistics Canada, Catalogue number 91-551-X
Distribution of the foreign-born population by continent of birth Americas
66.7%
62.2%
54.3%
18.4%
1981
1986
42.0%
31.9%
25.0%
22.5%
20.5%
Europe
Asia
24.6% 14.1%
46.9%
36.8%
28.1%
31.4%
36.5%
40.9%
45.2%
48.6%
51.3%
53.6%
55.4%
Africa
Oceania 1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
Source: Statistics Canada, Projections of the Diversity of the Canadian Population, 2006 to 2031
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Canada’s Population is Aging •
•
•
•
The share of Canada’s population aged 55+ is increasing dramatically.
% change in population (2019 vs 2015)
Between 2015 and 2019, the proportion of Canadians aged 5564 will increase 8%, while the share of people aged 65 and older will increase 15%.
Canada
ON
QC
under 15
5.0%
2.6%
6.4%
15-24
-4.5%
-4.4%
-8.0%
25-34
4.2%
5.9%
3.1%
In Ontario, the proportion of residents aged 55-64 will increase 11%
35-44
5.8%
3.0%
7.1%
45-54
-6.2%
-6.7%
-8.3%
The proportion of people aged 65+ will also increase significantly in both ON (+15%) and QC (14%)
55-64
8.4%
10.9%
5.5%
65+
15.0%
14.8%
13.6%
Source: October 2015, CBoC forecast.
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U.S. Leisure Trips by Age Group
65+
The older Canadians get, the more likely they are to visit the U.S. when travelling outbound for leisure purposes.
74%
55-64
45-54
69%
64%
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Canada: Total Outbound Leisure Trips
19,741
17,849 2006
2007
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Loonie -3.1%
26,372
26,288
24,664
2008
27,205
2005
27,066
2004
21,295
2003
21,582
2002
16,489
2001
13,750
14,199
2000
13,580
13,836
9/11 (-4.4%)
15,420
Global Recession (-1.3%)
23,207
(‘000s of outbound leisure trips, all destinations)
2015
Source: Statistics Canada, CBoC
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Annual Leisure Visits to the U.S. 21.0 20.0
Leisure visits fell -9.7% to 16.4 million in 2015, slightly less than the 2011 annual total.
$1.00 $0.95
18.0 17.0
$0.90 -9.7%
16.0
$0.85
15.0
-3.0%
14.0
$0.80
13.0 12.0
US Leisure Visits (millions)
11.0
CAD $ (annual average)
$0.75
CAD $ Annual Average
Millions of Overnight Leisure Trips
19.0
$1.05
$0.70
-4.5%
10.0
$0.65
9.0 8.0
$0.60 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: Statistics Canada, CBoC
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Auto Travel and the Canadian Dollar 13.0
Millions of Overnight Leisure Trips
12.0
Overnight Auto Trips
$1.00
Average Annual Exchange Rate
$0.95
11.0
$0.90
$0.85
10.0
$0.80
9.0 $0.75
8.0 $0.70
7.0
$0.65
6.0
$0.60
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Statistics Canada, CBoC
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Canadian Visits to Florida (thousands of overnight visits each year) Indirect Air & Other Modes Direct Air Arrivals
2,552 1,725 1,696
1,819
2,603
2,404
1,996
1,517
1,176
1,227
1,377
2008
2009
2010
1,500
1,563
1,635
1,727
1,810
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015p
Note: Air arrivals reflect direct deplanements in Fort Lauderdale, Fort Myers, Miami, Orlando (MCO, SFB, MLB), Palm Beach, Sarasota, and Tampa. Source: Statistics Canada, CBoC, OAG, US BTS.
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TRAVEL OUTLOOK Florida and Other “Sun Destinations”
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Summer Travel Intentions 53% 51%
52%
Summer 2013
45%
25%
Summer 2014
Summer 2015
23% 20%
21%
19%
17%
18%
14%
7%
9% 6%
4%
USA
Summer 2016
Europe
Caribbean & Mexico
Asia
6%
5%
6% 3%
Other
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Outbound Travellers & Trip Planning Other
23%
Asia-Pacific
22%
34%
Caribbean/ Mexico
21%
36%
Europe
U.S.
16%
26%
22%
27%
Dreaming
24%
27%
20%
22%
22%
22%
Investigating
24%
21%
40%
26%
Planning
25%
Booking
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Intended State of Summer Leisure Trips Florida
19.1%
California
13.4%
New York
12.6%
Nevada
8.2%
Maine
5.0%
Washington State
4.5%
Hawaii
4.2%
South Carolina Massachusetts Pennsylvania
3.8% 2.2%
2.0%
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Direct Seat Capacity from Canada Summer 2014
Summer 2015
Summer 2016f
Fort Lauderdale
159,324
176,579
189,250
Fort Myers
20,693
28,532
29,640
Miami
172,859
184,142
182,977
Orlando (MCO)
193,573
213,984
272,710
Palm Beach
--
266
558
Sarasota
--
4,385
3,808
49,220
57,891
67,619
595,669
665,779
746,562
11.8%
12.1%
Tampa TOTAL % change
Source: OAG, US BTS; CBoC. Summer season is May-October
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Performance of Competitors (% change in annual overnight visits, all trip purposes) ALL TRIP PURPOSES
2013
2014
2015
Total Outbound
2.2%
1.7%
-3.8%
UNITED STATES
3.0%
-1.6%
-10.0%
17.6%
3.4%
-2.7%
5.1%
2.6%
-1.3%
0.2%
9.6%
10.0%
Cuba
3.2%
6.3%
10.6%
Dominican Republic
0.3%
4.1%
5.4%
Mexico
1.8%
4.8%
4.3%
Florida Orlando OVERSEAS
Source: Respective government agencies, Statistics Canada, CBoC.
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Canadian Visits to Florida (000s of overnight visits each year) $0.97
$0.91
$0.78
$0.78
$0.75
4,214
4,121
4,224
-2.7%
-2.2%
2.5%
2015p
2016f
2017f
CAD/USD $1.00 $1.01 $0.97 $0.88
4,187
3,102
3,319
4,330
3,559
2,744
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: Statistics Canada, CBoC, estimates, US BTS.
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Outlook for Orlando and Area • Visits fell -1.3% in 2015 to 1.16 million, but direct air arrivals grew from 504 thousand to 537 thousand (+6.6%)
• Indirect arrivals expected to decrease again this year, but additional direct capacity in 2016 will boost overall arrivals • Additional 109 thousand seats in 2016; result is about 600 thousand direct arrivals
• Airfares are lower than last year, but ADR is up 26% in CAD$ • Higher travel prices will bring a slower rate of growth, but 45% of visits are by direct air and air travellers are not as price sensitive • Total visits forecast to decrease to 1.14 million in 2016 • Decline not as severe due to airline capacity and regional demographics conferenceboard.ca
In a Nutshell… • U.S. share of outbound will falter but rebound by 2017 • Growth in non-auto travel boosting U.S. trips • Many FL destinations have performed as well or better than sun destinations – New capacity supporting growth in air travel – Economic growth is expected in key geographic markets – Aging population, snowbirds
• Summer travel intentions to US down, but Florida is similar to last year • 2016 outlook: U.S. -6.0%, Florida -2.7%, Orlando -1.5%
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Canadian Tourism Research Institute Jennifer Hendry Senior Research Associate
[email protected]