updated 12.23.16
Orlando MSA Market Overview January 2017
Orlando MSA Market Overview Labor Market Payroll Employment Commercial Real Estate Residential Real Estate Consumer Spending Visitor Industry
Labor Market Labor Force, Orlando MSA Seasonally Adjusted 1,300,000
1,200,000 Employed
Unemployed
1,100,000
1,000,000
900,000 November 2016 (NSA, 12-Month Change) Labor Force: 1,273,890 (+46.664) Employed: 1,217,444 (+46,823) Unemployed: 56,446 (-159)
800,000
700,000 2000
2001
2002
2003
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Labor Market Unemployment Rate, Orlando MSA Seasonally Adjusted 14 RECESSION 12 Orlando MSA
November 2016 (NSA) United States: 4.4% Florida: 4.8% Orlando MSA: 4.4%
United States 10
8
6
4
2 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Labor Market New Claims for Unemployment Insurance, Orlando MSA 12-Month Moving Average 12,000
10,000 2016 YTD (through November) 32,840 (-4,197) 8,000
6,000 RECESSION 4,000
2,000 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Center
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Labor Market Average Weekly Hours & Earnings, Orlando MSA 12-Month Moving Average $900
40
Average Weekly Earnings (left axis)
Average Weekly Hours (right axis) 38
$850
36 $800 34
$750 November 2016 (NSA, 12-Month Change) Hours: 34.1 (-2.6%) Earnings: $789.07 (-4.7%)
$700
32
30 2009
2010
2011
2012
Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Center
2013
2014
2015
2016
Payroll Employment Total Payroll Employment, Orlando MSA Seasonally Adjusted Hundreds 1,300 RECESSION 1,250 Nov ’07 – Jan ’10 101,600 jobs lost
1,200
Jan ’10 - Present 244,700 jobs regained
1,150 1,100 1,050 1,000 November 2016 (12-Month Change) 1,228,200 (+52,700)
950 900 850 800 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Payroll Employment Change in Payroll Employment, Orlando MSA Y/Y % Change, Seasonally Adjusted 8 RECESSION
4
0 November 2016 United States: 1.6% Orlando MSA: 4.5% -4 Orlando MSA United States
-8 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Payroll Employment % Change in Payroll Employment, MSAs > 1 Million Jobs November 2015 – November 2016, Not Seasonally Adjusted Rank
MSA
% Change
1
ORLANDO, FL
4.48%
2
Seattle, WA
3.49%
3
San Jose, CA
3.31%
4
Dallas, TX
3.30%
5
Denver, CO
3.07%
6
St. Louis, MO
3.05%
7
Tampa, FL
2.62%
8
Portland, OR
2.60%
9
Atlanta, GA
2.58%
10
Riverside, CA
2.46%
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Payroll Employment Net Job Gain, Orlando MSA Not Seasonally Adjusted
Thousands 60
56.0 52.2
50.9 43.5
40.0
37.9
40 31.9 25.0 20
19.4 15.4
15.3
12.1
12.0
0
-20 -23.4 -40
-51.9
-50.9
2008
2009
-60 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Center
2007
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Payroll Employment Job Gains by Industry, Orlando MSA November 2015 – November 2016, Not Seasonally Adjusted 20,000
16% 15.1%
19,500 Net Job Gain (left axis)
Y/Y % Change (right axis)
14%
16,000 12%
TOTAL NET GAIN: 53,100
10%
12,000 10,600 8%
8.0% 7.3% 8,000
9,600
6% 5,700 2.8%
4,000
4% 2.5%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
2% 1.4%
2,800 900
0
900
2,200
900
-300 1,000 -1.3%
-700
0%
-1.7%
-2% -4%
-4,000 Const.
Leis/Hosp. Education Bus. Svcs. Whse/Util.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Mfg.
Wholesale
Retail
Gov.
Fin. Svcs.
Other Svcs.
Inform.
Payroll Employment Employment Momentum by Florida MSA/MD EXPANDING
November 2016, Seasonally Adjusted
IMPROVING 8%
Size of Bubble = Relative Employment Base West Palm Beach 6% Melbourne 3-Month % Change (annualized)
Tampa
4%
ORLANDO Miami
Jacksonville
2%
Lakeland
Fort Lauderdale
0% -1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
-2% CONTRACTING Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Year-Over-Year % Change
SLIPPING
Commercial Real Estate Industrial Market, Orlando MSA Through 3rd Quarter 2016 20%
$7.00
Total Vacancy (left axis)
Average Direct Asking Rate (NNN, right axis)
16% $6.00
12% $5.00 8%
3Q 2016 (12-Month Change) Vacancy: 5.7% (-1.7pp) Average Direct Asking Rate: $5.32 (+$0.33) YTD Net Absorption: 2,374,853 SF (-343,512 sf) Under Construction: 0 SF (-579,403 sf)
4%
0%
$4.00
$3.00 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: CoStar; only includes existing industrial properties larger than 10,000 sq. ft.
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Commercial Real Estate Office Market, Orlando MSA Through 3rd Quarter 2016 $25
20% Total Vacancy (left axis)
Average Direct Asking Rate (FSG, right axis)
16%
$23
12%
$21
8%
$19
3Q 2016 (12-Month Change) Vacancy: 9.5% (-1.5pp) Average Asking Rate: $20.13 (+$0.47) YTD Net Absorption: 1,449,851 SF (+305,268 sf) Under Construction: 0 SF (-185,630 sf)
4%
$17
$15
0% 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: CoStar; only includes existing office properties larger than 5,000 sq. ft.
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Residential Real Estate Home Sales vs. Median Sales Price, Orlando MSA 60,000
$300,000 Sales (left axis)
Median Sale Price (right axis)
50,000 2016 YTD (through November) Sales: 32,790 (+0.9%) Median Sales Price: $199,990 (+12.4%)
40,000
$200,000
30,000
20,000
$100,000
10,000
0
$0 2000
2001
2002
Source: Orlando Regional Realtor Association
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Residential Real Estate Housing Permits, Orlando MSA Units Authorized 40,000 Single-Family
Multi-Family
35,000
30,000
2016 YTD (through October) Single-Family: 12,219 (+18.2%) Multi-Family: 6,275 (+4.5%) Total: 18,494 (+13.2%)
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0 2000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Consumer Spending Orlando MSA Retail Index December 1999 = 100
September 2016 (12-Month Change) 186.4 (+8.6)
190.0
170.0
150.0
130.0
110.0
90.0 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Source: Florida Legislature, Office of Economic & Demographic Research
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2016 YTD (through September) Autos: $6.6b (+5.2%) Durables: $2.0b (+2.3%) Tourism: $17.7b (+4.6%) Non-Durables: $11.6b (+2.9%) Construction: $2.1b (+4.8%) Business Investment: $6.9b (+9.2%) TOTAL: $46.8b (+4.8%)
Consumer Spending Taxable Sales, Orlando MSA
$Billions 70
Autos & Accessories
Consumer Durables
Tourism & Recreation
Consumer Non-Durables
Building Investment
Business Investment
60 8.5 8.0 50
7.3 8.0
40 2.9
8.4
6.9
7.6
6.5
7.0 3.0
2.5
2.3
6.5 1.7
30
12.7
13.5
13.9
6.7
10
14.3
12.0
2.8
2.9
2.8
7.2
7.2
2005
2006
16.0
15.4 15.0
1.7 14.4
1.7 13.7 12.2
20 13.8
2.2
1.9
13.0 11.7
13.3
2.7
2.4
14.5
15.3
16.7
17.8
19.0
20.5
22.7
2.5
2.7
2.0
2.3
2.5
2.2
4.9
5.2
5.5
6.2
6.9
7.7
8.3
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2.4
1.9
6.8
5.6
2007
2008
0
Source: Florida Legislature, Office of Economic & Demographic Research
Visitor Industry
2016 YTD (through October) Domestic: 30,079,724 (+8.2%) International: 4,728,192 (+12.1%) TOTAL: 34,807,916 (+8.7%)
Total Passengers, Orlando International Airport Millions 40 Domestic
International
5.1 2.3
35
2.7 2.2
2.1
3.2
3.5
3.8
3.0
4.3 3.9
30
34.2 31.9
32.5
2005
2006
33.7
33.0 30.7
25
31.6
31.9
31.5
2010
2011
2012
30.8
31.4
2013
2014
20
Source: Greater Orlando Aviation Authority
2007
2008
2009
2015
Visitor Industry Hotel Occupancy vs. Average Daily Rate, Orlando MSA $120
100%
Hotel Occupancy (left axis)
Average Daily Rate (right axis)
90% $110
2016 YTD (through October) Occupancy: 76.2% (-1.6%) Average Daily Rate: $115.99 (+4.3%) 80% 77.0%
$100
73.7%
70%
70.8%
70.5% 67.7%
67.9%
67.6%
68.8%
65.8%
$90
63.9%
60% 59.5%
50%
$80 2005
Source: Visit Orlando
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
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