OPENING THE WAY TOWARDS A GREENER FUTURE? VIETNAM s POWER SECTOR. solidiance. July 2015

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solidiance

VIETNAM’s POWER SECTOR

OPENING THE WAY TOWARDS A GREENER FUTURE? July 2015 Solidiance has produced this white paper for information purposes only. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information and data contained herein, Solidiance bears no responsibility for any possible errors and omissions. All information, views, and advice are given in good faith but without any legal responsibility; the information contained should not be regarded as a substitute for legal and/or commercial advice. Copyright restrictions (including those of third parties) are to be observed.

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CONTENT

03 04 09 18 22 34 39

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Executive Summary

Current State of Vietnam’s Power Sector Industrial Activities and Households Driving Power Consumption in Vietnam EVN, the Primary Player in Vietnam’s Power Sector Drivers of Future Trends in Vietnam’s Power Sector Changes in Vietnam’s Power Sector Creating Opportunities for Inverstors Summary and Conclusion

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

V

ietnam has one of the world’s fastest GDP growth rates over the past decade, as well also one of the fastest growth rates in power consumption. Despite

a post-global financial crisis slowdown, power consumption has not shown any relent in Vietnam. Largely controlled by Vietnam Electricity (“EVN”), a state-owned enterprise, Vietnam’s power sector currently operates with relatively low efficiency and profitability. As hydropower approaches its maximum utilization, a growing reliance on coal could undermine the quality of Vietnam’s economic growth.

There are signs for optimism, however. A series of government reforms aiming to make the power sector more competitive and efficient are already under way. Domestic awareness of energyefficiency is beginning to increase. These internal shifts, along with the growing global focus on sustainability are expected to transform the outlook for Vietnam’s power sector.

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Current State of Vietnam’s Power Sector

Vietnam’s strong economic growth as well as increasing standards of living are the main drivers behind the steady increase in demand for power over the past decade. The growth in power generation capacity however has not mirrored the growth in demand. Significant additions to the total capacity did not happen until 2011 when the government allowed companies other than EVN to invest in power generation.

Meeting the increase in demand however is critical to stable economic development, due to the costs associated with electricity shortages

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Fast growth rate in power consumption in Vietnam, an eventual corresponding increase in capacity 120

108

100 80 60 40

34

39

45

52

59

66

75

92

86

Vietnam’s power consumption (billion kwh)

CAGR

13.6%

20 0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 30 Vietnam’s Installed Power Capacity (million kw)

CAGR

11.7%

22

25 20 15 10

12

12

13

14

15

15

25

15

9

5 0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Monetary Fund (IMF), Solidiance Analysis

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Electricity consumption growth outstrips GDP growth rate

Q

uestions about the efficiency of power usage persist as electricity consumption growth rate has consistently doubled GDP growth rate over the past decade. This ratio shows no sign of decreasing,

even though Vietnam’s economy has slowed down in the post-financial crisis years. Compared to similar developing countries, Vietnam’s electricity to GDP elasticity ratio is notably higher.

Vietnam’s Electricity Consumption Growth (%) and GDP Growth (%)

20.0 18.0 16.0

17.4 15.6

15.2

15.7

14.0

14.4

13.0

14.1 12.4

13.5

12.0 7.7

10.0 8.0 6.0

7.3

7.8

7.5

7.0

7.1

4.0

5.7

5.4

6.4

6.2

5.2

2.0 0.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Power consumption

GDP

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, IMF, Solidiance Analysis

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Electricity/GDP Elasticity*, 2003-12

2.50

2.11

2.00

1.25

1.50

1.10

1.23

1.22

1.00

0.31

0.50

-0.03

Vi et na m

an d Th ail

sia In do ne

Ch ina

Ko re a

So ut h

Un ite

d

St at e

s

-0.50

Ge rm an y

0.00

*calculated by dividing the growth rate of electricity consumption with the growth rate of the country’s GDP Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, IMF, Solidiance Analysis

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Power generation: Vietnam’s future strategy focuses on fossil fuels Vietnam’s Power Generation by Resource and Year (MW)

200,000

146,800

150,000 100,000

To meet the challenge of growing energy demand, the government

75,000

50,000

has devised a master plan to increase new generation capacity

33,818

-

through 2030 (chart on left).

2020 *

2014

2030 *

Coal

Gas

Hydropower

Nuclear

Renewables

Import

4%

9%

10%

56%

14% Coal

Hydropower

Gas

Renewables

Nuclear

Import

*Vietnam government projection Source: Vietnam Power Development Master Plan VII, IMF, Solidiance

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primary energy sources of the future.

be tapped, given the present level of electricity tariffs in Vietnam.

Vietnam’s Power Generation by Resource, 2030 *

Analysis

power generation, the government sees coal and gas as the

Renewable sources are currently regarded as too expensive to

*Vietnam government projection

6%

While currently hydropower accounts for the largest share of

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Industrial activities and households drive power consumption in Vietnam 9

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Vietnam’s power consumption is driven by industry and households

Vietnam’s Electricity Consumption by Type of Consumer (billion kWh)

160.0

142.25

140.0 120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0

Industry 85.63

Household Services Agriculture

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40.0 The growth in Vietnam’s power consumption is driven mainly by industry and households, accounting for ~90% of total consumption.

Industry has not only increased its electricity usage over the past decade but also its overall share, now accounting for ~54% of total consumption.

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20.0 0.0

Other 2006

2010

2014

Source: EVN annual reports, Solidiance Analysis

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2006

2014

Vietnam’s Electricity Consumption by Type of Consumer

5% 1%

4%

5% 2%

47%

4%

54%

36%

43%

Industry

Household

Industry

Household

Services

Agriculture

Services

Agriculture

Other

Other

Source: EVN annual reports, Solidiance Analysis

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Industrial output grows at a fast rate, but electricity consumption is rising faster The industrial growth rate has not matched the growth in electricity consumption by the industrial sector. During 2009-2013, the annual growth rate of industrial output was ~10% compared to the ~14.5% annual growth rate of industrial electricity consumption.

Inefficient energy usage in industrial sectors can be attributed to outdated technology in the production process, even at newly-built factories - but the lack of substantial incentives to upgrade technology, such as market-based electricity prices, is also a major factor.

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Growth Rate of Vietnam’s Industrial Output by Sector and Electricity Consumption, 2009-2013

32%

Electronics

11%

Total manufacturing

10 %

8% Food product

Textile

8%

7% 4%

Basic metal

Chemicals

Source: General Statistics Office, EVN annual reports, Solidiance Analysis

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Despite the growth in Vietnam’s construction spending, there is limited trends in green development

N

ew construction in both residential and non-residential sectors is currently lacking comprehensive energy-efficient practices. Even though construction spending has been on the rise along with

Vietnam’s economic growth, the number of buildings certified green every year has not risen significantly.

The majority of certified green buildings are owned by commercial developers or international manufacturers who want to comply with their global eco-standards.

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Vietnam’s Annual Construction Spending at 2010 Price (VND bn)

221,322 300000

234,528

252,649 Households and many domestic developers are

209,441

reluctant to adopt energy-saving practices due to

250000 200000

87,552

102,418

109,228

114,702

either a lack of awareness, system complexity, or financial constraints.

150000 Below-market electricity prices have led to a slow

100000

adoption of even simple energy-saving practices,

50000

such as cutbacks on unnecessary lighting and

0

Residential 2010

Non-residential 2011

2012

2013

HVAC, which are two primary power-consuming activities.

Number of Newly Certified Green Buildings in Vietnam and Their Total GFA (square meter), by Year

10

300,000

8

250,000 200,000

6

150,000

4

100,000

2 0

50,000 2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

-

Industrial Commercial & Public Residential GFA (Gross Floor Area)

Source: General Statistics Office, Solidiance Analysis

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Vietnam’s power production has more than doubled in 10 years, but with little improvement in overall system efficiency

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To add further burden to the high growth rate of electricity consumption, electricity loss during distribution in Vietnam is at regionally high levels.

Even when compared to countries at similar levels of development, Vietnam has seen minimal progress in improving the efficiency of its national grid. Indonesia has successfully reduced its electricity distribution loss from 11.8% to 10.7% between 2008 and 2012 while Vietnam’s level has remained steady.

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Total Electricity Loss during Transmission (%) by Country 12.0% Indonesia 11.0%

Vietnam

10.0%

United States China

9.0%

Thailand

8.0%

Germany Korea, South

7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0%

Source: U.S. Energy Information

3.0% 2.0%

Administration, Solidiance Analysis

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

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EVN is the primary player in Vietnam’s power sector 18

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EVN’s monopoly position in distribution gives it unique negotiating power Value Chain of Vietnam’s Power Sector*

Generation

EVN EVN JVs

Transmision

EVNGencos Other **

National Power Transmission Corporation

Distribution Northern Power Corporation Central Power Corporation Southern Power Corporation

*Brown boxes show companies owned by EVN **See next slide for ownership in power generation

Source: EVN, Solidiance Analysis

EVN monopolizes electricity distribution through three power corporations across Vietnam as well as the National Load Dispatch Centre which controls the electricity load and conducts power market trading.

EVN also owns the national grid through the National Power Transmission Corporation, which charges distributors for transmission of electricity, with the price set by the Electricity Regulatory Authority of Vietnam.

EVN’s control over transmission and distribution grants it strong negotiating power against power producers who have no other customer other than EVN.

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Most power generation capacity in Vietnam is owned by EVN and other state-owned enterprises (SOEs) Because of low profitability at the moment, only a few private investors find power generation attractive. As of 2013, four years after EVN’s monopoly in power generation was legally abolished, EVN and its subsidiaries still maintained a firm grip on the market.

The few companies that can effectively compete are those with significant financial resources, usually supported by export finance schemes or SOEs that operate in related industries such as Vietnam Coal & Mineral Co. (Vinacomin) and PetroVietnam.

Vietnam’s Power Generation Capacity by Ownership, 2013

7%

EVN and its subsidiaries

15%

Petro VN VN Coal & Mineral Co.

5% 61% 12%

Source: EVN, Solidiance Analysis

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Domestic Investor Foreign Investor

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Drivers of future trends in Vietnam’s power sector

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Vietnam’s power sector will be transformed by continued government reforms as well as a changing external environment Key drivers of trends in Vietnam’s power sector Electricity price reform

Increase in awareness about energy efficiency

Increased efficiency and profitability

Upgrade of the national grid

Reduction in EVN monopoly position

Reduction in global financing for coal

Over time, the sector will be transformed by a number of government policies, international trends, and increasing knowledge among stakeholders about energy-saving and green technologies.

The outcome will be a more competitive and efficient power sector that benefits stakeholders across the value chain, from producers to distributors to customers.

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Government’s price reform will allow electricity pricing to reflect market costs and increase sector profitability



The electricity tariff is being adjusted towards the market price in order to increase competition in the sector and thus number of electricity suppliers. Do Thang Hai, Deputy Minister of Industry and Commerce,

Low electricity tariffs are a major contributor to the slow transformation of Vietnam’s power sector. As the tariff is controlled by the government and rises very slowly despite high demand, investors find the market unattractive for investments.

Average Electricity Tariff (US cent) by Year in Vietnam

8.0

6.9

7.0 6.0

5.3

5.5

2009

2010

7.2

7.1

2013

2014

7.6

6.2

5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2011

2012

Source: Vietnamese Government, EuroCham, Solidiance Analysis

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2015

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...however, with the electricity price reform begun in 2011, the market outlook is becoming brighter as the price gradually moves towards a market price With the rise in electricity prices, distributors can now have a positive, albeit small, margin, according to the Ministry of Industry and Commerce

F

uture price hikes and gradual transition into a competitive pricing market will increase the sector’s profitability, not only for distributors but also for

upstream players including power producers. Worries that increasing electricity prices will deter foreign investment in manufacturing appear unwarranted as a 2015 EuroCham survey found that electricity prices were not a key driver of investment and a potential increase was low on a list of concerns among foreign investors.

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As Vietnam’s power sector transitions to a more competitive market, producers and consumers stand to eventually benefit The opening of vertical segments across the power sector will allow for interested investors other than EVN to participate in the market. The power generation segment already benefits from the increase in financial resources for power generation facilities.

A more competitive trading market gives suppliers more power and increases their profitability, while distributors will get the best price from the increase in the number of commercial buyers.

Finally, consumers will enjoy a more reliable supply of electricity, and potentially over time the choice of greener sources

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Plan to transition to a more competitive power market in Vietnam

2005 -2014 Creation of a competitive electricity supply



EVN’s divisions



power became

generation



separate

2015-2022

2022 onwards

Creation of a competitive electricity trading market

Creation of a competitive retail market

EVN’s distribution companies may

become



independent

are

able

to

choose their power provider

entities, though EVN still holds

entities

majority stakes

partially privatized)

the market (for commercial

New commercial buyers not

customers)

Companies not owned by EVN



(state-owned

Customers

or

or

directly

from

were now allowed to participate

owned by EVN are allowed to

in the power generation market

participate in the electricity

conditions

and sell their electricity to

trading market

create

The trading company owned by

units

EVN becomes an independent

from producers or the trading

company

market and sell to customers

EVN under long-term powerpurchasing agreements





purchase

Companies that satisfy certain are

allowed

electricity

to

retailing

which buy electricity

Source: Vietnam Power Development Master Plan VII, Solidiance Analysis

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Reduction in export financing for coal will eventually encourage attention towards cleaner sources of energy or clean coal technologies Total Export Finance for Global Coal Projects from 2007 to 2014 by Source (US$ bn)

O

8.0 6.0

ver the past decade, public and export finance from Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries as well as China and Russia played an

important role in the financing coal projects in developing countries.

4.0

However, with growing international concern about the impact of

2.0

greenhouse gas emissions on climate change, international export

2009

2010

Development Banks

2011

2012

OECD public and export

2013

2014 Non-OECD public

Source: National Resources Defense Council, Solidiance Analysis

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and public finance for coal projects has been on the decline the past few years.

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As part of the US’s recent ban on coal financing abroad, in 2013, the US Export-Import Bank cancelled a previouslyagreed financing package for a major coal power plant in Thai Binh Province

Although Vietnam still receives large export finance packages mainly through China, Japan, and South Korea, global trends are putting pressure on investors Export Finance for Coal Projects Received by Vietnam by Year (US$ mn)

to improve the efficiency of coal plants.

Inevitable future reduction for coal financing will lead Vietnam’s government to give additional consideration to cleaner energy sources, including renewables.

2,000

1,776 1,332

1,500 1,000 500

Source: National Resources Defense Council, Solidiance Analysis

510

741

150

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

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Technological upgrades in the national grid will increase the efficiency of the power sector

U

pgrading the national grid is an integral part of the

By adapting advanced technology into transmission, distribution,

government’s strategy to improve the efficiency of

and operations, the program aims to improve the quality and

Vietnam’s power system. Aside from generally extending

efficiency of power distribution, allow for the integration of

and upgrading the power lines throughout the country, the

renewable sources, and the creation of incentives for energy-

Electricity Regulatory Authority of Vietnam (ERAV), a government

efficient practices from customers and sellers alike.

body responsible for controlling the national grid, is implementing the Smart Grid Program.

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Vietnam’s Smart Grid Program, Main components

The Smart Grid Program will have a significant impact on realigning incentives, thus increasing the efficiency and environmental-

Smart transmission and system operation

Smart distribution network

Smart metering

Smart customers

friendliness of Vietnam’s power sector. The program’s significance is highlighted by the assistance of different institutions such as the U.S. government and the World Bank with the program’s implementation.

Source: Electricity Regulatory Authority of Vietnam, Solidiance Analysis

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Growing awareness about energyefficient practices will drive demand for green technologies and products

A

lthough Vietnam currently sees few examples of energyefficient and environmentally-friendly technologies in production and construction, there is an increasing

awareness of such technologies in the manufacturing and construction sectors.

Drivers and Challenges for the Development of Energy-Efficient Practices in Vietnam

Drivers

• Global compliance policy • Branding strategy • Cost - saving benefits

• Limited awareness • Misguided cost - benefit analysis • Limited government guidance Source: Solidiance Analysis

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Challenges

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Solidiance’s

interviews

with

key

experts

in

manufacturing and construction indicate that a lack of knowledge of new technology and misunderstanding about the costs and benefits of such technology are two primary barriers to green technology adoption.

However, these barriers will gradually diminish in the years ahead as changes to the power sector and building regulations compel developers to take cost-cutting and compliance strategies more seriously.

The increasing scale of Vietnam’s production and construction projects, coupled with competitive electricity pricing will mean the costsaving benefits of green technology will become too big to ignore.

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Changes in Vietnam’s power sector create opportunities for investors

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With big changes underway to Vietnam’s power sector, big opportunities to follow The government’s comprehensive plans for transforming the power sector create promising opportunities for private investors interested in both power generation and distribution in the years to come

I

n power generation, the policies of Japan, China, and South Korea on export financing mean investors from these countries will drive investment opportunities in the near-term. However, as a result of the move towards

market-based pricing of electricity, Vietnam’s recently improved Build-OperateTransfer policy, will draw additional private investors to the market.

Significant investments in advanced grid technology, data management, automation, and transmission infrastructure are also expected as the national grid undergoes extensive upgrades.

Estimated Required Annual Investment for Vietnam’s Power Sector Development (US$ bn)

12.0

9.7

10.0

7.9

8.0

7.9 6.5

6.0

5.9

5.8

5.4

4.4 4.0

Source: Electricity Regulatory Authority of Vietnam, Solidiance Analysis

3.2 2.1

2.0

0.0

2.5

1.4

2011-2015

2016-2020

Total required investment

2021-2025

2026-2030

Generation

Network

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Energy-efficient technology: a positive outlook for green building and manufacturing in Vietnam The increasing cost of electricity will be a key driving factor for energyefficient technology in Vietnam

S

olidiance forecasts that the implementation of energyefficient technologies as well as green building will accelerate in Vietnam over the next decade. Developers

and manufacturers will be looking for energy-saving building materials, energy-efficient equipment and systems, and advanced system management solutions.

At present, there are limited government initiatives to drive green manufacturing and building technology growth but with sustainability and climate policies gaining global momentum as well as rising awareness within Vietnam of the need for green growth, we expect that the government will transition its policies to encourage greener growth trends

Important Factors for the Applications of Energy-Efficient Technologies

Increasing cost of electricity Limited government incentives and support at present Developing knowledge base about energy efficiency Source: Solidiance Analysis

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Renewable energies will eventually become profitable in Vietnam despite the current low levels of feed-in tariffs Low feed-in tariffs remain a major barrier to the development of renewable energy - except hydropower - in Vietnam.

Although the development of renewable energies in is likely to be limited in the short-term, the reforms underway to Vietnam’s power sector will create a more conducive environment for renewable energy over the medium- and long-term.

Most industry experts believe that 10 US cents per kWh is the minimum threshold for investments in renewable projects in Vietnam to be profitable. This means that at current prices, only waste energy is a viable option.

However, with the development of Vietnam’s power system and improvement in infrastructure, the costs of renewable projects are expected to drop. This cost reduction, coupled with expected increases in feed-in tariffs for wind and solar energy, will make renewable energy more attractive investments.

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Current Renewable Energy Potensial in Vietnam

Type

Potential

Wind

500 - 1000kWh/m2/year

Biomass

10 million TOE/year

Biogas

10 billion m3/year

Solar

5kWh/m2/day

Feed-in Tariff by Type of Renewable Energy

Type

Feed - in tariff (as of 2015) (per kWh)

Wind

7.8 US cents

Biomass

5.8 US cents

Waste energy

10.05 US cents

Solar

n/a

Source: Official Documents of Vietnam Government, Solidiance Analysis

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Summary & Conclusion

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With a clear direction and focused execution, significant green potential can be translated into reality for Vietnam’s power sector Watch the summary on this video:

While coal power will likely be the focus to meet near-term energy needs, with promising reforms and trends underway, Vietnam’s power sector has the potential to transition into a modern, more sustainable platform.

Opportunities for companies and investors will appear across the value chain.

From the power sector itself...

As well as at the building level...





Increased utilization:

at factories

From a current very small base of solar and wind power to smarter, more efficient energy transmission and distribution systems

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Increased adoption of energy efficient machinery



Increased

penetration

of

green

technologies at the household level

building

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Authors Michael Sieburg | Associate Partner Michael Sieburg is an Associate Partner for Solidiance’s Vietnam office. Based in Ho Chi Minh City for more than six years, yet working regionally, Michael has advised Fortune 500 companies on market growth strategies - including market entry, market penetration, distribution strategy and distributor prioritization, acquisition search, channel analysis and recommendations, competitor benchmarking, and investment feasibility studies - in Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, China, and Australia. Prior to joining Solidiance, Michael worked in New York City covering Southeast Asia as a macroeconomic / political risk analyst. He holds an M.A. from Columbia University.

Hoang Nguyen | Consultant Hoang is a Consultant based in our Vietnam office. His experience includes business analytics and planning for the fast-growing consumer businesses at Citibank where he performed customer segmentation, market share estimations and product offering analysis. Prior to that, he performed market research and served as a lead generator for Exact Software, a software company specialized in ERP solutions. He obtained a Bachelors degree in International Finance from the Foreign Trade University in Ho Chi Minh City.

Lorrento Dang | Analyst Lorrento is an Analyst based in our Vietnam office. Prior to joining Solidiance, he worked at DE Capital Mortgage, an affiliate of Wells Fargo Home Mortgage, conducting due diligence on mortgage borrowers and creating a database of residential properties in New York. He also worked at Gerstein Fisher, a New York investment management firm, assisting with portfolio analyses and research on China and India’s financial markets. Lorrento holds a Bachelors degree in Economics and Philosophy from Columbia University in New York. An additional thanks to Bertrand Doucet who has supported the development of this white paper.

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About Us 42

What We Do

What We Are Focusing On

Soldiance is a corporate strategy consulting firm with focus on Asia Pacific. We advise CEOs on make-or-break deals, define new business models and accelerate Asia growth. Through our 10 offices across Asia, we provide our clients with a better understanding of intrinsic regional issues. To learn more about how Solidiance has helped many Fortune 500 & Asian Conglomerates to succeed in Asia, please visit:

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