OLED vs LED Lighting. Market Analysis & Forecast. Copyright 2012 IDTechEx

OLED vs LED Lighting Market Analysis & Forecast [email protected] www.IDTechEx.com 1 Copyright © 2012 | IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com Overview ...
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OLED vs LED Lighting

Market Analysis & Forecast [email protected]

www.IDTechEx.com 1

Copyright © 2012 | IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com

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OLED Market today Source: LG

small/medium displays for mobile devices OLED television

OLED lighting - Substantial multi-billion OLED displays market with Samsung, LG, Sony, and others producing – mainly for portable consumer electronics (mobile phones, MP3 player, OLED tablets), but also OLED TVs -

OLED Lighting market far behind – mainly R&D and premium price lighting panels ($500/unit and more)

-

World-wide lighting market ~$75bn

Source: Novaled

Source: Novaled

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OLED Lighting Market  Premium price lamps and panels, as well a experimental design kits  High price! Cheapest panels cost $500  Cost is coming down – approx. $1,000 to $1500 /klm

lamp today from $2,500 a year ago (equivalent

Source: Philips,“ Lumiblade“

of a 60W lamp!). Gen 5 line expected to offer $50-$100 price range. – LED is $5 /klm today!  Only small quantities  Pilot lines, production still difficult  Achieved efficiency is behind theory,

max. 128 lm/W from Panasonic

Source: Ingo Maurer for OSRAM ‚early future ‘ lamp

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Comparison Incandescent

CFL

LED

OLED

Efficiency (lm/W)

10 / 25 (halogen lamps)

50-75

80-100

10-45

Lifetime (hrs)

1,000

6,000-15,000

25,000-100,000

Replacement for Incandescent

More durable Variety of colours No mercury

Freedom of design No mercury No lampshades rquired

Mercury Color temperature, very white and cold light

Expensive > used in premium lighting fixtures and commercial lighting

Even more expensive

Pros

Cons

Low efficiency

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LED vs OLED Lighting LED (compact)

OLED (diffuse) 

Lower cost  

Need to be hidden 

 



Easy to focus 

No efficient green source Narrow spectral lines

Difficult to focus

Can be viewed directly 

Get very hot

Optics can be bulky

Higher cost



Stay cool

No good flexible substrate 

No good blue emitter



Too much infra-red

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OLED Structure Basic OLED Structure: - Substrate - Backplane - Organic layers - Barrier/Encapsulation

⬇ High cost in display-quality glass which needs to be reduced in price (watch Samsung/Corning venture) ⬇ Edge seal is a challenge

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OLED Lighting available  Lighting panel samples available from Philips, OSRAM, Lumiotec, LG OLED, Panasonic Idemitsu OLED Lighting, Konica Minolta

Source: Lumiotec

Source: Philips

Source: Konica Minolta

Source: OSRAM

Source: LG OLED

Source: Panasonic Idemitsu OLED Lighting

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Characteristics - OLED panels on the market Size (mm)

Efficiency (lm/W)

Luminance (cd/m2)

Lifetime (hrs)

Color Temperature (K)

32x32 to 129.4x5 4.7

12..20

1,000

10,000

3,250

€77 to €334

Philips Lumiblade Plus

70x70

45

1,000

10,000

2,800

€120

OSRAM Orbeos

79x79, 132x48

25

1,000

5,000

2,800

€240

Lumiotec Ver 2

97x97, 287x97

11

2,800

50,000*

2,800

€115-350

Lumiotec Ver 3 (phosporescent based)

145x145

11

2,700

50,000*

4,900

?

Konica Minolta Symfos

70x70

45

1,000

8,000*

2,800

€980

100x100

60

3,000

15,000

3,500

?

80x80

30

3,000

10,000

3,000

?

131x44, 65x73

48

2,000

8,000**

2,700~6,500

Philips Lumiblade

LG Chem Type 2 PIOL Verbatim Velve

Price

$1,100 (design kit)

*lifetime is based on initial luminance of 1,000 cd/m2 h **LT50

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OLED Lighting Roadmaps Luminance in cd/m2

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OLED Lighting Roadmaps Lifetime in hours

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OLED device

PROS

CONS

Theoretically very efficient – up to 150 lm/V Green – No toxic materials, easy to dispose of and recycle Natural looking light temperature Freedom of design (surface emitted light) Can be transparent – first ones to reach the market in 2013 Can be flexible – not clear when, but work in progess (GE with Konica Minolta, Philips, LG OLED, AUO, Bayer, Visionox etc)

Trade-off between colour saturation, lifetime and efficiency High price burn-in effect Different lifetime of the different colours – blue is far behind

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Does OLED Lighting have a future? • •



Technically, they offer little advantage over LEDs, except flexibility, thickness and lower temperature operation. LED lighting is a large and rapidly growing industry. The technology is proven and scaleable. They are beginning to be flexible etc. They fit in standard light sockets and are cheap (and getting cheaper). Many companies are involved in OLED lighting – is it just because they cannot compete in OLED displays? Investment for larger area device manufacturing to lower cost

OLED Lighting key challenges

Material cost reduction (glass, edge barriers etc) Yield improvement

Availability and cost of flexible barriers Differentiated product design and marketing from LED lighting

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Will OLED lighting succeed?

Despite the initial narrow performance gap between OLED and LCD displays, OLED displays succeeded because they offered a way for Samsung to differentiate their cellphone versus the competition. So too may OLED lighting succeed – not necessarily because they offer a technical improvement over LEDs but if the backers can design new lighting designs not easily replicated with LEDs and market it as better.

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OLEDs 2012-2022 IDTechEx View Year

% Printed

% Flexible

2012

0%

0%

2017

3%

9%

2022

20%

17%

• OLED lighting may reach $400 million in 2017 • We take a much lower view than other analysts given the considerations OLED Lighting OLED Displays

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