OLED vs LED Lighting
Market Analysis & Forecast
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OLED Market today Source: LG
small/medium displays for mobile devices OLED television
OLED lighting - Substantial multi-billion OLED displays market with Samsung, LG, Sony, and others producing – mainly for portable consumer electronics (mobile phones, MP3 player, OLED tablets), but also OLED TVs -
OLED Lighting market far behind – mainly R&D and premium price lighting panels ($500/unit and more)
-
World-wide lighting market ~$75bn
Source: Novaled
Source: Novaled
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OLED Lighting Market Premium price lamps and panels, as well a experimental design kits High price! Cheapest panels cost $500 Cost is coming down – approx. $1,000 to $1500 /klm
lamp today from $2,500 a year ago (equivalent
Source: Philips,“ Lumiblade“
of a 60W lamp!). Gen 5 line expected to offer $50-$100 price range. – LED is $5 /klm today! Only small quantities Pilot lines, production still difficult Achieved efficiency is behind theory,
max. 128 lm/W from Panasonic
Source: Ingo Maurer for OSRAM ‚early future ‘ lamp
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Comparison Incandescent
CFL
LED
OLED
Efficiency (lm/W)
10 / 25 (halogen lamps)
50-75
80-100
10-45
Lifetime (hrs)
1,000
6,000-15,000
25,000-100,000
Replacement for Incandescent
More durable Variety of colours No mercury
Freedom of design No mercury No lampshades rquired
Mercury Color temperature, very white and cold light
Expensive > used in premium lighting fixtures and commercial lighting
Even more expensive
Pros
Cons
Low efficiency
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LED vs OLED Lighting LED (compact)
OLED (diffuse)
Lower cost
Need to be hidden
Easy to focus
No efficient green source Narrow spectral lines
Difficult to focus
Can be viewed directly
Get very hot
Optics can be bulky
Higher cost
Stay cool
No good flexible substrate
No good blue emitter
Too much infra-red
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OLED Structure Basic OLED Structure: - Substrate - Backplane - Organic layers - Barrier/Encapsulation
⬇ High cost in display-quality glass which needs to be reduced in price (watch Samsung/Corning venture) ⬇ Edge seal is a challenge
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OLED Lighting available Lighting panel samples available from Philips, OSRAM, Lumiotec, LG OLED, Panasonic Idemitsu OLED Lighting, Konica Minolta
Source: Lumiotec
Source: Philips
Source: Konica Minolta
Source: OSRAM
Source: LG OLED
Source: Panasonic Idemitsu OLED Lighting
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Characteristics - OLED panels on the market Size (mm)
Efficiency (lm/W)
Luminance (cd/m2)
Lifetime (hrs)
Color Temperature (K)
32x32 to 129.4x5 4.7
12..20
1,000
10,000
3,250
€77 to €334
Philips Lumiblade Plus
70x70
45
1,000
10,000
2,800
€120
OSRAM Orbeos
79x79, 132x48
25
1,000
5,000
2,800
€240
Lumiotec Ver 2
97x97, 287x97
11
2,800
50,000*
2,800
€115-350
Lumiotec Ver 3 (phosporescent based)
145x145
11
2,700
50,000*
4,900
?
Konica Minolta Symfos
70x70
45
1,000
8,000*
2,800
€980
100x100
60
3,000
15,000
3,500
?
80x80
30
3,000
10,000
3,000
?
131x44, 65x73
48
2,000
8,000**
2,700~6,500
Philips Lumiblade
LG Chem Type 2 PIOL Verbatim Velve
Price
$1,100 (design kit)
*lifetime is based on initial luminance of 1,000 cd/m2 h **LT50
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OLED Lighting Roadmaps Luminance in cd/m2
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OLED Lighting Roadmaps Lifetime in hours
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OLED device
PROS
CONS
Theoretically very efficient – up to 150 lm/V Green – No toxic materials, easy to dispose of and recycle Natural looking light temperature Freedom of design (surface emitted light) Can be transparent – first ones to reach the market in 2013 Can be flexible – not clear when, but work in progess (GE with Konica Minolta, Philips, LG OLED, AUO, Bayer, Visionox etc)
Trade-off between colour saturation, lifetime and efficiency High price burn-in effect Different lifetime of the different colours – blue is far behind
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Does OLED Lighting have a future? • •
•
Technically, they offer little advantage over LEDs, except flexibility, thickness and lower temperature operation. LED lighting is a large and rapidly growing industry. The technology is proven and scaleable. They are beginning to be flexible etc. They fit in standard light sockets and are cheap (and getting cheaper). Many companies are involved in OLED lighting – is it just because they cannot compete in OLED displays? Investment for larger area device manufacturing to lower cost
OLED Lighting key challenges
Material cost reduction (glass, edge barriers etc) Yield improvement
Availability and cost of flexible barriers Differentiated product design and marketing from LED lighting
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Will OLED lighting succeed?
Despite the initial narrow performance gap between OLED and LCD displays, OLED displays succeeded because they offered a way for Samsung to differentiate their cellphone versus the competition. So too may OLED lighting succeed – not necessarily because they offer a technical improvement over LEDs but if the backers can design new lighting designs not easily replicated with LEDs and market it as better.
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OLEDs 2012-2022 IDTechEx View Year
% Printed
% Flexible
2012
0%
0%
2017
3%
9%
2022
20%
17%
• OLED lighting may reach $400 million in 2017 • We take a much lower view than other analysts given the considerations OLED Lighting OLED Displays
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