Oil and Natural Gas Price Fundamentals- Chaos, Volatility & Uncertainty

Oil and Natural Gas Price Fundamentals- Chaos, Volatility & Uncertainty AADE David Pursell January 18, 2012 **IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON PAGE 31 OF THI...
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Oil and Natural Gas Price Fundamentals- Chaos, Volatility & Uncertainty AADE David Pursell January 18, 2012

**IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON PAGE 31 OF THIS DOCUMENT**

Summary  Crude Oil - $100/bbl Long Term □ Bias higher longer term □ Near term uncertainty  Europe contagion/global demand  Iran - all turban and no camel?  OPEC – excess capacity?  Natural gas – Too…much…gas □ Near term looks ugly □ Medium term $4/mcf □ Longterm $6+/mcf requires LNG exports, demand acceleration…or both!

2

Oil Market Forecast Call on OPEC

Near-Term (3-6 months):

 Global oil demand likely fares better than in ’08/’09  OPEC support at ~$90/bbl Brent. Medium-Term (12 months):  OPEC comfortably controls market in most scenarios. Long-Term (2-5 years):

Call on OPEC / OPEC Production (MMB/d)

 Uncertain Euro economy

35.0 34.0 33.0 32.0 31.0 30.0 29.0 28.0 27.0 26.0 25.0 2007

 Call on Saudi reaches new highs, supporting price at $100+/bbl Brent.  Market provides room for incremental Iraqi and US-lower 48 output.

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Call on OPEC

Call on OPEC (Forecast)

OPEC Prod History

Last Reported OPEC Prod

kbd Call on OPEC OPEC Prod History Last Reported OPEC Prod

2007 32.1 30.7

2008 31.5 31.6

2009 29.1 29.1

2010 30.4 29.5

2011 30.6 29.8 30.2

2012 30.2

2013 31.2

2015

2014 31.5

3 Source: TPH

2015 31.8

2012 Supply/Demand Scenarios Summary:  Base case □ Call on OPEC flat vs. current prod. □ Saudi cuts as Libya returns to production.  High Case □ In a recession-free 2012 □ Saudi capacity may be tested  Uber- draconian test case. □ Implied Saudi Cut of 2.1 mmb/d  Repeat of the ‘08 demand destruction  Complete rebound in Libyan output  Virtually no supply response in nonOPEC

mmb/d U.S. OECD Europe Japan Other OECD China Other Non-OECD GLOBAL DEMAND

2012 SCENARIOS Draconian 18.0 13.8 3.9 7.5 9.6 34.1 86.9

Low 18.5 14.0 4.1 7.6 9.8 34.4 88.4

Mid 18.9 14.2 4.3 7.7 10.0 34.8 89.9

High 19.2 14.3 4.5 7.7 10.1 34.8 90.5

NON-OPEC SUPPLY + OPEC NGLs

59.4

59.5

59.7

59.7

CALL ON OPEC Implied OPEC increase/(cut)

27.5 (2.6)

28.9 (1.3)

30.2 0.1

30.8 0.7

Libya Iraq Other ex-Saudi Arabia OPEC EX-SAUDI OPEC

1.5 2.6 15.7 19.9

1.2 2.6 16.6 20.5

0.9 2.6 17.6 21.1

0.1 2.6 17.6 20.3

CALL ON SAUDI ARABIA Implied Saudi increase/(cut)

7.6 (2.1)

8.4 (1.3)

9.1 (0.6)

10.5 0.8

4 Source: TPH

Structurally Higher Call on Saudi Current: Call on Saudi Arabian Crude

 9.8 mmb/d Jul-’11, +0.8 mmb/d vs. May-’11

12 11

Base Case (2012): 10

Draconian (repeat ’08 declines**):

2008 Repeat

7 6

Historical

High

Base

Low

O-12

J-12

A-11

J-10

O-09

J-09

A-08

J-07

O-06

J-06

A-05

J-04

O-03

J-03

5 A-02

 8.4 mmb/d, back to mid-’10 prod levels

8

J-01

Low Case (50% chance of ‘08):

9

O-00

 10.5 mmb/d, unreachable?

2012 Scenarios

J-00

High Case (IEA demand):

mmb/d

 9.1 mmb/d

Draconian

 7.6 mmb/d, back to mid-’02 prod levels.

**Draconian scenario assumes ‘12 y/y demand declines similar to the ’09 y/y declines (but from a lower base), complete restoration of Libyan production to 1.5 mmbpd, and no material supply response from non-OPEC. Source: IEA, TPH

5

Demand: Less Sensitive Than in ‘08 Then (2008 & 2009):

Now (2011):

 Demand destruction: NAM 1st, Europe 2nd

 Demand Destruction: Europe 1st, NAM 2nd?

 Global oil demand loss: -1.6 mmb/d (-2%) □ OECD: -3.7 mmb/d (-8%)  NAM: -2.2 mmb/d (-9%)  OECD Pacific: -0.7 mmb/d (-8%)  Europe: -0.8 mmb/d (-5%)

□ OECD Europe oil demand today is 43% of what NAM demand was in ‘07.  Non-OECD Demand has grown. □ Up 12% (+4.4 mmb/d) ‘07 to ‘10.

□ Non-OECD: +2.1 mmb/d (+6%)  Middle East: +0.7 mmb/d (+10%)  China: +0.5 mmb/d (+6%)

6

‘08 Revisited: Rise of the Rest In the last recession, global oil demand declined a cumulative 2% over 2 years. OECD declined 8%, while Non-OECD grew 6% DEMAND

2007

2008

2009

2010

OECD North America Europe Pacific Total OECD

25,484 15,474 8,385 49,343

24,182 15,390 8,052 47,624

23,294 14,663 7,684 45,641

23,759 14,581 7,814 46,154

NON-OECD FSU Europe China Other Asia Latin America Middle East Africa Total NON-OECD

4,133 761 7,573 9,612 5,734 6,837 3,109 37,759

4,229 761 7,744 9,699 5,996 7,207 3,275 38,911

4,185 715 8,063 10,123 5,995 7,489 3,329 39,899

4,480 688 9,069 10,436 6,296 7,777 3,384 42,129

87,102

86,535

85,540

88,283

TOTAL DEMAND

2008

2009

(1,301) (889) (84) (727) (333) (368) (1,719) (1,983)

2010

2008 2009 2010

465 (82) 130 513

-5% -1% -4% -3%

-4% -5% -5% -4%

2% -1% 2% 1%

96 (0) 170 88 262 370 166 1,152

(44) 294 (46) (27) 320 1,005 424 313 (1) 300 281 289 54 56 988 2,231

2% 0% 2% 1% 5% 5% 5% 3%

-1% -6% 4% 4% 0% 4% 2% 3%

7% -4% 12% 3% 5% 4% 2% 6%

(567)

(995) 2,744

-1%

-1%

3%

7

Lower Ex-Saudi OPEC Production (Or Check Under The Couch Cushions For Beer $$$) OPEC Output (Saudi vs. Others) 25

Calling on Saudi:

10

□ Venezuela: -0.5 mmb/d

5

□ Iran: -0.4 mmb/d

0 Jun-'08

□ Angola: -0.3 mmb/d □ UAE: -0.2 mmb/d 3.5

□ Algeria: -0.1 mmb/d

3.0

2.0 1.5

□ Iraq: +0.2 mmb/d

1.0

□ Nigeria: +0.4 mmb/d

0.5

Nigeria: Rebounding from violence (Jul-'11 = 2.3 mmb/d)

J-10

A-11

J-09

O-09

A-08

J-07

O-06

J-06

J-04

Iraq

A-05

J-03

J-01

O-00

0.0 J-00

 Saudi Arabia: +0.3 mmb/d vs. mid-’08

Iraq: +5% p.a. mid-'05 to mid-'11 (+16% y/y Jul-'11 = 2.7 mmb/d)

2.5 mmb/d

□ Qatar: -- mmb/d

Jul-'11

Rest of OPEC

Iraq & Nigeria Production

□ Kuwait: -0.1 mmb/d □ Ecuador: -- mmb/d

Jun-'09 Saudi

O-03

□ Libya: -1.7 mmb/d

15

A-02

 Versus ‘08, Ex-Saudi OPEC production has declined 2.7 mmb/d:

mmb/d

20

Nigeria

8 Source: IEA, TPH

Non-OPEC Supply: Key Growth Regions Brazil

Colombia

3,000

1,500

2,000

kboe/d

kboe/d

2,500 1,500 1,000

1,000 500

500

0

0

KE

TPH

IEA

Canada

U.S. kboe/d

kboe/d

4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0

KE

IEA

IEA

10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0

TPH

IEA

9 Source: IEA, TPH, CAPP, Kessler Energy, Industry sources

Major Oil Projects Major Project Materiality 2012 0 381 257 115 175 0 185 190 80 155 388 1,926 6%

2013 185 1,070 178 0 0 75 114 190 68 80 388 2,348 10%

2014 0 410 350 85 220 75 208 205 157 425 524 2,659 15%

2015 0 750 610 0 100 0 60 420 0 500 142 2,582 20%

OPEC Algeria Angola Ecuador Iraq Iran Kuwait Libya Nigeria Qatar Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates Venezuela TOTAL OPEC Cumulative %

2011 0 245 0 300 80 0 0 120 280 0 50 0 1,075 3%

2012 247 313 30 200 185 0 0 210 0 20 180 125 1,510 8%

2013 158 63 0 960 155 170 15 38 0 500 191 155 2,405 15%

2014 20 260 0 910 136 450 165 93 25 895 125 0 3,079 24%

2015 0 310 0 1,010 140 0 0 492 30 0 231 500 2,713 31%

TOTAL 185 2,790 1,578 200 495 150 587 1,105 345 1,329 1,885 10,649

TOTAL 425 1,191 30 3,380 696 620 180 953 335 1,415 777 780 10,782

Actual 2010 1,864 1,821 468 2,420 4,236 2,231 1,662 2,493 1,735 9,761 2,866 2,745 34,301

% of Current 23% 65% 6% 140% 16% 28% 11% 38% 19% 14% 27% 28% 31%

35% 30%

Cumulative %

2011 0 179 183 0 0 0 20 100 40 169 443 1,134 2%

% of Current 18% 131% 47% 5% 30% 5% 27% 11% 25% 17% 11% 20%

25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2011

2012

2013

Non-OPEC

2014

2015

OPEC

Major Project Startup Schedule 3.5 3.0 2.5

MMb/d

Non-OPEC Azerbaijan Brazil Canada China Kazakhstan Mexico Norway Russia U.K. U.S.A. Other TOTAL NON-OPEC Cumulative %

Actual 2010 1,042 2,137 3,370 4,103 1,635 2,960 2,169 10,450 1,370 7,772 16,809 53,818

2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2011

2012 Non-OPEC

2013

2014

2015

OPEC

10 Source: Kessler Energy

Project Performance

Project Performance (% of Design Capacity)

Average Peak % of Capacity by Year of Startup

70%

120%

60%

100%

50%

Average

30%

Median

% of Capacity

% Capacity

80% 40%

60% Total

40% 20%

20%

10%

0%

0% 1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11 Year

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

1991 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year of Startup

11 Source: Kessler Energy

China: Substantial Growth China Oil Demand mmb/d y/y% 2000 4,570 2001 4,688 3% 2002 5,041 8% 2003 5,557 10% 2004 6,480 17% 2005 6,728 4% 2006 7,241 8% 2007 7,574 5% 2008 7,744 2% 2009 8,063 4% 2010 9,069 12% 2011e 9,583 6% 2012e 10,015 5% 2013e 10,516 5%

Annual Growth Rate

18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% '01

'02

'03

'04

History

'05

'06

'07

Forecast

'08

'09

'10

'11

'12

'13

10-Year Avg

China Oil Demand % of World 11% 3% 48% 3% 21% 8% 20%

mmb/d

China Primary Energy Mix China World % of mmtoe mmtoe China Oil 429 4,028 18% Natural Gas 98 2,858 4% Coal 1,714 3,556 70% Nuclear Energy 17 626 1% Hydro 163 776 7% Renewables 12 159 0% TOTAL 2,432 12,002 100%

China Oil Demand Growth (y/y)

13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 Repeat '08

TPH

IEA

12

WTI vs. Brent Spread, 5-yrs Brent Crude, WTI differential ($/bbl) 35 WTI diff

25

Contango

15

$/bbl

5

-5

-15

-25

-35 Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

13

OECD Inventories – Where is the SPR? 3,000

2010

2,800

2011

Million Barrels

Max

2,600

Norm

TPH Estimate

2,400

Min

2,200 Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

“That's mathematics son. You can argue with me but you can't argue with figures” Foghorn Leghorn 14

Resource Triangle

15 Sources: Holditch, Masters

Paradigm Shift – This is Key

Old: Hard to find…easy to produce New: Easy to find…hard to produce

16

US Lower-48 Wet Gas Production 75

Gas Production, bcf/day

70

65

60

55

50

45 Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

17 Source: EIA

Natural Gas Volatility $16

$14

Natural Gas, $/mcf

$12

$10

$8

$6

$4

$2

$0 Dec-05

Dec-06

Dec-07

Dec-08

Dec-09

Dec-10

Dec-11

18

Natural Gas Futures, today vs. 1, 2 and 3-yrs ago $10

$9

$7

$6

$5 Current 1-yr ago

$4

2-yrs ago 3-yrs ago

$3

Feb-21

Feb-20

Feb-19

Feb-18

Feb-17

Feb-16

Feb-15

Feb-14

Feb-13

$2

Feb-12

Natural Gas, Futures Curve, $/mcf

$8

19

Gas Storage – Plenty Of Supply 4000

WINTER

5,500

SUMMER

5,000

2011 2000

Max

Normal

1000

4,000

4,814

+2,050

4,500

Gas Storage Levels, bcf

Working Gas, bcf

3000

+420

3,794

(320) (1,400)

3,500 3,000 2,500

+270

2,344

2,000

Min

1,500

0 1-Jan

1,000

2-Apr

2-Jul

1-Oct

31-Dec

Start of 2011 Winter

Storage Draws so far

Normal Oversupply draws rest of 3 bcf/day winter

Start of 2012 Summer

Normal injections

Oversupply Start of 2 bcf/day 2012 Winter

20

Barnett Activity Barnett Gas Production

7

600

6

500

5

4 300 3

Rig Count

Production (bcf/d)

400

200 2

100

1

0 Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Historical Gas Production (bcf/d)

Jan-10

Jan-11

0 Jan-12

Rig Count

21 Source: HPDI, RigData, TPH Estimates

Where Are People Spending Their Capital? Grouped Shale Rig Count Group A: Barnett, Fayetteville, Woodford Group B: Eagle Ford, Haynesville, Marcellus

500 450 400 350

Barnett, Fayetteville, Woodford

300 250 200 150 100 50 Oct-11

Jul-11

Apr-11

Jan-11

Oct-10

Jul-10

Apr-10

Jan-10

Oct-09

Jul-09

Apr-09

Jan-09

Oct-08

Jul-08

Apr-08

Jan-08

Oct-07

Jul-07

Apr-07

Jan-07

0

22 Source: RigData, TPH

There’s Oil in Them Thar’ Hills U.S. Land Rig Count by Hydrocarbon Target 1,800

Gas

Oil

1,600

U.S. Land Rig Count

1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

23 Source: Baker Hughes

Basin Economics – Gas Price Required for 10% ATROR $9 $8 $7

Breakeven Gas Price ($/mcf)

* Economics assume $100/bbl crude

Dry gas Low liquids gas High liquids gas Oil

TPH Long-term Gas Price

$6 $5

TPH Medium-term Gas Price

$4

Current Gas Prices

$3 $2

 Most basins fall below $6/mcf gas, therefore, demand growth is needed to support our long-term gas price.  Oil and liquids-rich plays lower the marginal cost of supply.

Niobrara Fracture Vertical Permian Niobrara High Resistivity Monterey Bakken Wolfcamp Midland Utica Condensate New Mexico Vertical Bone Spring Eagle Ford Oil California Uinta Oil Barnett Combo MS Lime DJ Basin Eagle Ford Condensate Marcellus SW PA GOM deep gas Cleveland Tonkawa Avalon Wolfcamp Delaware Marcellus NE PA Anadarko-Woodford Wet Haynesville Core Marcellus Central Barnett Core Granite Wash Anadarko-Woodford Pinedale Fayetteville Arkoma-Woodford Jonah Haynesville Non-Core Arkoma Barnett Non-Core South Texas Powder River Anadarko Anadarko-Woodford Dry Piceance Eagle Ford Gas East Texas Conventional Niobrara Low Resistivity Appalachia Gas

$1 $0

 Gas prices aren’t sustainable below $3/mcf gas. Marcellus is the only onshore gas play that truly works.

 Lower oil prices (we’re assuming $100/bbl) would increase the marginal cost

Gas produced from oil and liquids-rich plays is ~17% of the total the gas stack. These plays account for ~35% of the gas growth going forward. 24 24 Source: TPH

NGL Focus

Gal/Mcf Yield/BBL (%)

Marcellus 50% 28% 6% 7% 10% 100%

3.6 50%

4.0 55%

2.8 38%

800

Aggregate Shale NGLs (Granite Wash, Marcellus, Eagle Ford)

700

600 NGLs (bbl/day)

Ethane Propane Butanes Isobutane Pentanes Total NGLs

Eagle Ford 48% 25% 8% 10% 10% 100%

Granite Wash 40% 28% 7% 10% 15% 100%

Eagle Ford Marcellus

500

400

Granite Wash

NGL BBL % of Crude

42%

41%

46%

($5/gas & $90/oil) NGL BBL % of Crude

40%

39%

45%

($4/gas & $90/oil)

38%

37%

43%

($6/gas & $90/oil) NGL BBL % of Crude

300

200 Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

25

Coal to Gas Switching  Power demand has grown ~1bcf/d each year since 2004.  Recently, low gas prices and higher coal prices have favored gas-fired power generation.  This scenario should persists through 2012 with our sub-$4/mcf near-term gas price. Gas – Coal Spread ($/MWh), 1999 - Present

Gas - Coal Spread ($/MWh)

$100 $80 $60

Coal favored

$40 $20 $-

$(20)

Gas favored

$(40)

26

US Onshore Rig Count Oct-2011 935 1,223

Gas Oil 1800

Oil Rig Count

1400

2013 750 1380

2007 11 4 163 30 42 249

2008 45 9 171 42 45 314 26%

2009 104 41 77 41 25 288 -8%

2010 174 93 83 36 27 413 43%

2011 135 129 68 31 18 381 -8%

2012E 78 136 43 25 15 297 -22%

2013E 62 156 39 25 15 297 0%

Granite Wash Anadarko Woodford Utica Condensate Eagle Ford Key Liquids Rich Shales

14 5 0 14 33

33 10 0 21 65 94%

21 13 1 19 54 -17%

69 29 2 81 181 238%

107 55 2 172 336 86%

103 51 15 207 376 12%

101 51 34 210 396 5%

Williston Permian HZ Mississippi Lime Niobrara HZ Key Oil Shales

43 15 1 1 60

69 28 1 1 99 65%

49 10 1 2 63 -36%

115 33 5 7 160 154%

169 74 16 15 274 71%

210 109 28 16 363 32%

215 131 35 16 397 9%

342

477 40%

405 -15%

754 86%

991 31%

1036 5%

1090 5%

1956

2142

1118

1676

2021

2085

2130

Haynesville Marcellus Barnett Fayetteville Woodford Key Gas Shales

1600

2012 770 1315

1200

Rig Count

1000

800

600

Gas Rig Count 400

200 Total Key Shales (HZ)

0 10/05

10/06

10/07

10/08

10/09

10/10

10/11

10/12

10/13

10/14 Total Rig Count

*** Bias higher oil rig count and lower gas rig count

27 27 Source: RigData, TPH

Persian Gulf

28

Biggest Risk: Economy. High oil prices 

“I'm just here for the gasoline.” Max, Road Warrior

29

Final Thought Formula for success: “Rise early, work hard, strike oil.” J. Paul Getty

Note: Getty said “Oil”…not more shale gas!

30

OTHER DISCLOSURES Analyst Certification: I, Dave Pursell, do hereby certify that, to the best of my knowledge, the views and opinions in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the company and its securities. I have not nor will not receive direct or indirect compensation in return for expressing specific recommendations or viewpoints in this report.

Trade Name Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc. (TPHCSI) and its non-US affiliates worldwide. Legal Entities Disclosures

The above mentioned analyst does not own any securities mentioned in this report.

U.S.: TPHCSI is a member of FINRA and SIPC. U.K.: Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. International, LLP is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Registered in England & Wales No. OC349535. Registered Office Pellipar House, 1st Floor, 9 Cloak Lane, London EC4R 2RU.

Ratings: B = buy, A = accumulate, H = hold, T = trim, S = sell, NR = not rated

Canada

For detailed rating information, distribution of ratings, price charts and other important disclosures, please visit our website at www.tudorpickering.com. To request a written copy of the disclosures please call 800-507-2400 or write to Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc. 1111 Bagby, Suite 5000, Houston, TX 77002.

The information contained herein is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, a prospectus, an advertisement, a public offering, an offer to sell securities described herein, or solicitation of an offer to buy securities described herein, in Canada or any province or territory thereof. Any offer or sale of the securities described herein in Canada will be made only under an exemption from the requirements to file a prospectus with the relevant Canadian securities regulators and only in the relevant province or territory of Canada in which such offer or sale is made. The information contained herein is under no circumstances to be construed as investment advice in any province or territory of Canada and is not tailored to the needs of the recipient. To the extent that the information contained herein references securities of an issuer incorporated, formed or created under the laws of Canada or a province or territory of Canada, any trades in such securities must be conducted through a dealer registered in Canada. No securities commission or similar regulatory authority has reviewed or in any way passed judgment upon these materials, the information contained herein or the merits of the securities described herein and any representation to the contrary is an offense.

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Copyright 2012. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc (TPH). This information is confidential and is intended only for the individual named. This information may not be disclosed, copied or disseminated, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of TPH. This communication is based on information which TPH, Inc. believes is reliable however, the firm does not represent or warrant its accuracy. The viewpoints and opinions expressed in this communication represent the views of TPH as of the date of this report. These viewpoints and opinions may be subject to change without notice and TPH will not be responsible for any consequences associated with reliance on any statement or opinion contained in this communication. This message should not be considered as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities.

31

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*Office o f Tudo r, Pickering, Ho lt & Co . International, LLP. Anish Kapadia and Shola Labinjo are employed by Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co . International, LLP in the United Kingdom and are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Mr. Kapadia and Mr. Labinjo are not associated persons of Tudor, Pickering, Ho lt & Co . Securities, Inc. and as such are not subject to NASD Rule 2711 restrictions on communications with subject co mpanies, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst acco unt. ‡Jonathan Wright is employed by Tudor, Pickering, Ho lt & Co . International, LLP in the 32 United Kingdom and is not registered/qualified as a general securities representative with FINRA. Mr. Wright is no t an associated person o f Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co . Securities, Inc.

Fractionation Capacity

33

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