SUMMIT AGENDA
JANUARY 19–20, 2015 • CALGARY
FUNDAMENTALS, FINANCIALS, PRICES, AND POLITICS
Oil and Gas Summit 2015.
The Hon. Adam Sieminski Administrator, U.S. Energy Information Administration, United States
Edward Morse Global Head, Commodities, Citi Research
Phil Fontaine Special Advisor, RBC, and President, Ishkonigan Inc.
#CBoCEnergy
What is happening with crude oil and natural gas prices, and how will they affect your business? Until recently, international crude oil prices had been high and stable for years, and North American prices had been relatively high, but unstable. Now crude oil prices are touching five-year lows, and there’s a good deal of conjecture about where prices are going in the near term. What will happen to international crude oil prices in the years ahead, and will North American prices be more or less unstable? Is there upside potential for North American natural gas demand and pricing? How will price movements affect the Canadian oil and gas industry outlook? Respected national and international experts - many of whom rarely speak in Canada—will share their insights into these critical questions.
Learn more about the forces affecting oil and gas pricing. We’ll discuss worldwide developments and their impact on the Canadian oil and gas scene, including big picture market fundamentals and financials, major geopolitical events, and the U.S. shale oil and gas revolution. Benefit from the experiences and insights of senior analysts, thought leaders, and your peers. Connect with other oil and gas executives, and find out how they’re dealing with the common challenges you face. Share your thinking on the issues, and ask the experts for their perspectives on your top questions.
Register Now! This event is open to a maximum of 100 delegates. Don’t miss this unparalleled opportunity to discuss the latest issues, and connect with senior Canadian and international oil and gas analysts and decision-makers.
To register, visit www.conferenceboard.ca/conf
Agenda
Day 1 / Monday, January 19, 2015
AT A GLANCE 6:00 p.m. Registration and Welcome Reception 7:00 p.m. Networking Dinner 7:30 p.m. Welcoming Remarks from the Chair and Introduction of Keynote Speaker 7:45 p.m. Keynote Presentation 9:00 p.m. Dinner and Keynote Presentation Adjourns
6:00 p.m. Registration and Welcome Reception Reception sponsored by:
7:00 p.m. Networking Dinner 7:30 p.m. Welcoming Remarks from the Chair and Introduction of Keynote Speaker Vincent Lauerman, Director, Energy and Environment, The Conference Board of Canada 7:45 p.m. Keynote Presentation The Changing Canada-U.S. Oil and Gas Relationship Introduction: Gordon H. DeKuyper, Managing Director, Citibank Canada Keynote Speaker: The Hon. Adam Sieminski, Administrator, U.S. Energy Information Administration, United States The U.S. shale oil and gas revolution has fundamentally changed the Canada-U.S. energy relationship. Light, sweet crude oil is increasingly in surplus south of the border, derailing upgrading projects in Alberta, and forcing oil sands producers to export diluted bitumen instead. Canadian natural gas exports to the U.S. are in rapid decline, with the potential to stop altogether by 2020. The Honourable Adam Sieminski will explore the changing nature of the CanadaU.S. oil and gas relationship, focusing on the potential positive and negative influences moving forward. 9:00 p.m. Dinner and Keynote Presentation Adjourns To register, visit www.conferenceboard.ca/conf
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Agenda
Day 2 / Tuesday, January 20, 2015
AT A GLANCE 8:00 a.m. 8:30 a.m. 8:40 a.m. 9:00 a.m. 10:15 a.m. 10:45 a.m.
Registration and Continental Breakfast Opening Remarks from the Chair Opening Presentation Plenary Session 1 Networking Break Plenary Session 2
12:00 p.m. 1:30 p.m. 2:45 p.m. 3:15 p.m. 4:30 p.m.
Luncheon and Presentation Plenary Session 3 Networking Break Plenary Session 4 Closing Remarks from the Chair and Summit Adjourns
8:00 a.m. Registration and Continental Breakfast 8:30 a.m. Opening Remarks from the Chair Vincent Lauerman, Director, Energy and Environment, The Conference Board of Canada 8:40 a.m. Opening Presentation Alberta’s Economic Outlook: Turbulent Oil Markets Hit Alberta Introduction: Bruce Graham, President and Chief Executive Officer, Calgary Economic Development Speaker: Louis Thériault, Vice-President, Public Policy, The Conference Board of Canada Alberta has lead provincial economic growth in recent years on the strength of rapid expansion of the oil sands industry and relatively high crude oil prices. The recent collapse in oil prices puts Alberta’s economic leadership under threat. Louis Thériault will discuss the impacts of lower oil prices on Alberta, and argue that its economy will likely fall into recession in 2015 before experiencing modest growth in 2016. 9:00 a.m. Plenary Session 1 Big Picture Oil and Gas Market Fundamentals Moderator: Claudia Cattaneo, Western Business Columnist, The National Post Speakers: Robert Ineson, Managing Director, North American Natural Gas, IHS CERA Edward Morse, Global Head, Commodities, Citi Research Michael Wittner, Managing Director and Global Head of Oil Research, Société Générale
To register, visit www.conferenceboard.ca/conf
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DAY 2 / Tuesday, January 20, 2015
International crude oil prices have been softer in recent months, following a prolonged period of relatively high prices. Global economic growth and oil demand growth have been somewhat disappointing, with Europe slipping back into recession and Chinese economic growth continuing to slow. On the supply front, both OPEC and non-OPEC production has been robust, with jumps in Libyan and U.S. production leading the pack. North American benchmark crude prices have also been relatively soft recently, while Canadian prices have been buoyed somewhat by a declining dollar and increasing rail and pipeline transportation capacity to a wider range of markets. North American natural gas prices rebounded with last winter’s polar vortex, but have since disappointed with mild summer weather and a continuing, rapid increase in gas production in the U.S. Northeast. The panel of experts will provide their short- and medium-term outlooks for crude oil and natural gas production and prices. 10:15 a.m. Networking Break 10:45 a.m. Plenary Session 2 Geopolitics Impacting Oil and Gas Markets Moderator: Charles Slagorsky, Consulting Senior Advisor, North American Oil, PIRA Energy Group Speakers: Dr. Robert Legvold, Marshall D. Shulman Professor Emeritus, Department of Political Science, Columbia University Julian Lee, Strategist, Bloomberg First Word Greg Priddy, Director, Global Energy and Natural Resources, Eurasia Group Geopolitics, widely seen as a non-issue following the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991, has become an issue since 9/11. The U.S.-led Iraq war reignited the rivalry between Russia and the U.S., and Shiite-Sunni challenges. Syria and Iraq are both in civil war, with ISIS controlling large areas of each country, and energy superpower Russia continues its aggression against Ukraine. Robert Johnston will discuss geopolitical events generally, and their potential impact on oil and natural gas prices. Robert Legvold will To register, visit www.conferenceboard.ca/conf
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DAY 2 / Tuesday, January 20, 2015
Day 2/ Wednesday, February 25, 2015
delve deeper into the new Cold War between Russia and the U.S., and Julian Lee will examine Mideast issues, including the rise of ISIS. 12:00 p.m. Luncheon and Presentation Challenges to Foreign Investment in Oil and Gas Markets in Canada: How to Understand and Manage the New Uncertainties Introduction: Bruce M. Leslie, Executive Director, The Conference Board of Canada Speaker: Melanie L. Aitken, Co-Chair of Competition, Antitrust and Foreign Investment, Bennett Jones Policy changes in Ottawa have given rise to novel challenges to doing deals in Canada’s oil and gas industry. While ultimately manageable in most cases, there is a new, and critical, premium to getting the right advice and savvy advance planning—on issues ranging from the technical to the overtly political. This is particularly the case in the SOE context, where the need for sensitivity to the exigencies informing the decision-making process is most acute. Melanie Aitken will share her perspectives on the nature of the impediments today, and offer up several strategies to consider in the hunt for approval. 1:30 p.m. Plenary Session 3 The Canadian Oil and Gas Development Outlook Moderator: Louis Thériault, Vice-President, Public Policy, The Conference Board of Canada Speakers: Phil Fontaine, Special Advisor, RBC, and President, Ishkonigan Inc. Wenran Jiang, Director, Canada-China Energy and Environment Forum and Special Advisor, Alberta Department of Energy Harold York, Vice-President, Integrated Energy, Americas Research, Wood MacKenzie The Canadian oil and gas brand has been tarnished in recent years, with delays to new crude oil pipelines to the U.S. and the West coast, and to B.C. LNG projects. The oil pipelines have been stalled by local opposition, environmental groups, and Aboriginal concerns. The roadblocks for B.C. LNG projects have, until now To register, visit www.conferenceboard.ca/conf
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DAY 2 / Tuesday, January 20, 2015
at least, tended to be more on the fiscal and regulatory front. Harold York will discuss Wood Mackenzie’s outlook for Canadian oil and gas production, Wenran Jiang will offer the Chinese perspective of the industry, and Phil Fontaine will provide the Aboriginal perspective, including what’s needed to break the First Nations’ logjam for many of these types of projects. 2:45 p.m. Networking Break 3:15 p.m. Plenary Session 4 Debate: Is the U.S. Shale Oil and Gas Revolution Sustainable? Moderator: The Hon. Adam Sieminski, Administrator, U.S. Energy Information Administration, United States Speakers: Edward Morse, Global Head, Commodities, Citi Research Bill Powers, Author and Energy Analyst The U.S. shale oil and gas revolution is not only impacting the Canada-U.S. energy relationship, but also the international crude oil market, and potentially the global LNG market. U.S. oil production has been rising rapidly since 2008 and, until recently, prices had been buoyed by large, geopolitically-inspired disruptions elsewhere. U.S. LNG exports starting in 2017 have the potential to weigh down natural gas prices in Asia and possibly Europe, by providing greater supply and weakening the link between oil and natural gas prices in these markets. Edward Morse will argue the U.S. production revolution is likely to continue, while Bill Powers will offer a more pessimistic assessment of future U.S. oil and gas production. 4:30 p.m. Closing Remarks from the Chair and Summit Adjourns Vincent Lauerman, Director, Energy and Environment, The Conference Board of Canada
To register, visit www.conferenceboard.ca/conf
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Registration Form Oil and Gas Summit 2015: Fundamentals, Financials, Prices, and Politics JANUARY 19–20, 2015 • CALGARY
Group rates are available—See www.conferenceboard.ca/conf for details. ■ YES! Please register the following delegate for this event Name Title Organization Tel. E-mail Fax Mailing Address City
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Your registration in this event includes the sessions, dinner, continental breakfast, breaks, luncheon, and a link to speaker presentations.
Fees ■ Summit
Before Nov. 28
Before Dec. 19
After Dec. 19, 2014
$1,455
$1,555
$1,655
Please confirm attendance at event functions: Day 1 Dinner and Keynote Presentation ■ Day 2 Luncheon and Presentation
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Sponsors We’d like to thank our generous sponsors for their contribution to this event
EXCLUSIVE NATIONAL MEDIA PARTNER
MARKETING PARTNERS
SPECIAL CONTRIBUTOR
EXCLUSIVE INDUSTRY MEDIA PARTNER
