NWT Economic Outlook: Recession and Recovery 2009 NWT Aboriginal Business Conference Yellowknife, NWT Wednesday September 23, 2009 Pedro Antunes Director, Forecasting and Economic Analysis
[email protected]
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Aggressive Global Intervention • Direct government intervention in many financial market segments • Short term rates slashed • Fiscal stimulus
U.S. Policy Actions • Huge fiscal stimulus and tax cuts • Nationalization of key institutions (Fannie and Freddie) • GM and Chrysler bailout • Cash for Clunkers www.conferenceboard.ca www.conferenceboard.ca
U.S. Existing Home Sales and Prices (millions SAAR; $thousands) 8.0
280 Sales
Average Price
7.5
270
7.0
260
6.5
250
6.0
240
5.5
230
5.0
220
4.5
210
4.0
200
Source: National Assn. of Realtors.
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U.S. Real Consumer Spending (per cent change) 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 Sources: BEA; CBoC.
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U.S. Real GDP (per cent change) 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 Sources: BEA; CBoC.
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Canadian Outlook • Canada at the bottom; growth recovery expected in second half of 2009 • Exceptional monetary and fiscal stimulus slowly pulling us out of recession • Recovery in key exports will help • Employment will lag recovery and the unemployment rate will peak at just over 9 per cent next year • Real GDP growth rebounding to 2.9 per cent next year www.conferenceboard.ca
Raw Materials Price Index (per cent change)
20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09f
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada
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10f
Government Fixed Capital Formation ($ billions of current dollars, 2003–11)
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
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Federal and Regional Balances National Accounts Basis ($ billions)
Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.
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Employment Growth Canada, 2000–10 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0
280,000 job losses
-1.5 -2.0 00
01
02
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03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Unemployment Rate vs. Natural Rate (percent), 1981-2013
Unemployment Rate
Natural rate
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
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Pre–Tax Corporate Profits (per cent share of net domestic income) 18 16 14 12 10
Peaked at 18 per cent in 2008Q3
8 6
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
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Real Business Investment Growth (Canada 2001–10) 12 9 6 3 0 -3 -6 -9 -12 -15 -18 2001
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
09f
10f
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
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Real GDP Growth Rate Canada 2001–09 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 01
02
03
04
05
06
07
8
09f
10f
11f
12f
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
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NWT Outlook • A boom in resource exploration and
development fuelled growth over the last few years
• Falling commodity prices have led to steep declines in the mining sector this year
• Growth expected to bounce back next year • Long term outlook is favourable as the NWT resource base is further developed
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Real GDP per Capita ($2002)
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Retail Sales ($ 000s) Monthly to June 2009 64,000 62,000 60,000 58,000 56,000 54,000 52,000 50,000
Source: Statistics Canada
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Labour Force Indicators (SA, 3MMA)
Source: Statistics Canada
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Exploration Expenditures ($ millions)
Source: Natural Resources Canada
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Non-Metal Mining ($2002 millions)
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
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Other Mining ($2002 millions)
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
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Construction ($2002 millions)
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
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Employment (percentage change)
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
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Commercial Services and Wholesale and Retail Trade ($2002, percentage change)
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
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Public Administration & Defence ($2002 millions)
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
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Real GDP (percentage change)
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
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In the Pipe … • Development of the Territory's’ resource base provides it with one of the most favourable long-term outlooks in the country
• Nico gold cobalt-bismuth project in 2011 • Mackenzie Gas Pipeline in 2017 • Potential for many others
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