Northern Ireland Tourism Performance Overview January – March 2015
Overview(Jan-March 2015) The latest official statistics coupled with industry feedback demonstrate that the first quarter of 2015 was positive overall for the tourism sector in Northern Ireland. The latest tourism performance figures released by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) relate to Jan-March 2015 and, due to small sample sizes at this stage of the year, they should be treated with caution. As the figures relate only to the first three months of 2015 the picture may change substantially as the year progresses. GROWTH IN MOST KEY PERFORMANCE MEASURES The growth experienced in 2014 has continued into 2015. Figures for the first quarter of 2015 show increases in most key performance measures. Trips from all markets combined (GB & Overseas, NI and ROI) grew by 12% to reach 930,000 while holiday trips increased by 14%. Overall, visitors stayed longer but spent less. Increases in trips were evident for all main market areas, with the domestic and ROI markets accounting for 70% of the growth, most delivered by the domestic market. GB also performed well. Given that these two markets are less seasonal than the ROI and Other overseas markets it is perhaps not surprising that Q1 growth in trips was largely driven by them. FALL IN VISITOR SPEND FROM NON STERLING ZONE COUNTRIES The weak euro is showing its impact on 2015 with an 8% reduction in visitor spend which is attributable to non sterling markets. GB visitor spend remained largely unchanged from Q1 2014; domestic was the only market to realise growth in spend (4%). CONTINUED GROWTH IN HOLIDAY TRIPS & TURNAROUND IN BUSINESS TRIPS Following strong growth of over one fifth in holidays (from all markets combined )in 2014, growth of 14% was realised in the first quarter of 2015. The strong growth of over one third in business trips is welcome in the wake of a 10% decline in this sector in 2014. Positively, growth in these two discretionary sectors was spread across all main market areas, most notably the domestic market as well as GB. There was a 3% rise in VFR trips in the first quarter of the year with growth from all markets except ROI, with ROI residents perhaps inviting their NI friends and relatives to visit them instead as a result of the weak euro. POSITIVE NEWS FOR ACCOMMODATION SECTOR Supporting the growth in overnight trips taken in NI, accommodation statistics for Jan-March 2015 show a positive performance for hotels and guest houses, guest accommodation and B&Bs (with hotels achieving the highest recorded rooms and bed spaces sold for any Q1). ENCOURAGING JAN-JUNE 2015 ACCOMMODATION STATISTICS AND INDUSTRY FEEDBACK The latest available accommodation statistics relate to Jan-June 2015 and these have remained positive for hotels but less so for guesthouses, guest accommodation and B&Bs, indicating a more challenging second quarter for this sector. Preliminary findings from Tourism NI’s June 2015 Industry Tourism Barometer also indicate that the first half of the year was strong for hotels, attractions and notably golf clubs, with more seasonal sectors such as B&Bs , car hire companies and activity providers finding this period more challenging.
Tourism Performance ‘At Glance’
Figures should be treated with caution due to small sample sizes.
As figures relate to Jan-March the picture may change substantially as the year progresses.
Northern Ireland Tourism Performance (Jan-March 2015 v Jan-March 2014) All markets combined Figures for the first quarter of the year show growth in most key performance measures. Overnight trips from all markets combined increased by 12% with a 14% rise in holiday trips. Overall, visitors stayed longer but spent less due to declines in visitor spend from non-sterling markets. Increases in trips were evident for all main market areas, with the domestic and ROI markets accounting for 70% of the growth, most delivered by the domestic market. GB also performed well. Growth in trips was evident across all sectors but was largely driven by increases in holiday and business trips which, positively, was spread across all main areas (most notably the domestic market as well as GB). NI market The domestic market realised growth in all key performance measures during Jan-March 2015. NI residents took 14% more domestic overnight trips (holiday trips were up by 15%), stayed 183,000 more nights overall and spent an additional £2m compared with the first quarter of 2014. This was the only market to realise growth in spend. ROI market In spite of currency volatility ROI trips to NI grew by 11% in Q1 2015. ROI holiday trips increased marginally from Q1 2014 while business trips experienced strong growth. Despite welcoming more ROI visitors, in the context of a challenging exchange rate, their average length of stay and subsequently spend per trip reduced resulting in a decline in nights and spend. Indications are that there was an increase in the use of serviced accommodation by this market, particularly hotels. GB/Overseas Market GB and overseas trips grew by 9% in Q1 2015, driven by increases from GB as well as those from Other overseas. Holiday growth was evident from both GB (+16% ) and Other overseas (+9%). GB and Other overseas visitors stayed longer but spent less, solely due to declines in spend by those from non sterling zones.
Total trips
14% (512,000)
Total nights
26% (890,000)
Total spend
4% (£39m)
Total trips
11% (69,000)
Total nights
26% (144,000)
Total spend
16% (£12m)
Total trips
9% (349,000)
GB trips
8% (262,000)
Other overseas trips
12% (86,000)
Sources: Northern Ireland Passenger Survey (NISRA), Survey of Overseas Travellers (Fáilte Ireland) Country of Residence Survey (CSO) & Continuous Household Survey (NISRA)
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1) All Markets Combined (GB, Other Overseas, ROI & NI)
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Figures may not add up to totals throughout due to rounding. Percentage and percentage point changes throughout are based on unrounded figures.
•
GB refers to Great Britain, ROI refers to Republic of Ireland and NI refers to Northern Ireland. NISRA refers to the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency and the CSO refers to the Central Statistics Office.
•
Jan-March 2014
Jan-March 2015
% Change
831
930
+12
Total nights(000)
2,512
2,975
+18
Total spend (£m)
147
136
-8
242
262
+8%
•
77
86
+12%
•
319
349
+9%
•
62
69
+11%
Total visitors from outside NI
381
417
+10%
NI
450
512
+14%
Total
831
929
+12%
Holiday
293
333
+14%
Visiting friends/relatives (VFR)
393
406
+3%
Business
89
120
+35%
Other
57
71
+25%
• •
Total trips (000)
•
Trips by market (000) GB Other overseas Total GB/Overseas ROI
•
Trips by reason for visit (000)
Sources: Northern Ireland Passenger Survey (NISRA), Survey of Overseas Travellers (Fáilte Ireland) Country of Residence Survey (CSO) & Continuous Household Survey (NISRA) Figures should be treated with caution due to small sample sizes. As figures relate to Jan-March the picture may change substantially as the year progresses.
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•
Overall the growth experienced in 2014 has continued into 2015. Figures for the first quarter of the year show increases in most key performance measures Trips from all markets combined (GB & Overseas, NI and ROI) grew by almost 100,000 and the 14% growth in holiday trips in the first quarter of the year is encouraging Overall, visitors stayed longer but spent less. The weak euro is showing its impact on 2015 with non sterling markets spending less Increases in trips were evident for all main market areas, with the domestic and ROI markets accounting for 70% of the growth in trips, most delivered by the domestic market. GB also performed well Given that these two markets are less seasonal than the ROI and Other overseas markets it is perhaps not surprising that Q1 growth in trips was largely driven by them While we know Other overseas trips (excluding GB) increased, breakouts of these visitors by main market area (Mainland Europe, North America and Elsewhere) will not be available until later in the year Growth in trips was evident across all sectors but was largely driven by increases in holiday and business trips Positively, growth in these two discretionary sectors was spread across all main areas, most notably the domestic market as well as GB There was a 3% rise in VFR trips in the first quarter of the year with growth from all markets except ROI, with ROI residents perhaps inviting their NI friends and relatives to visit them instead as a result of the weak euro Supporting the growth in overnight trips taken in NI, accommodation statistics for Jan-March 2015 show a positive performance for hotels and guest houses, guest accommodation and B&Bs (with hotels achieving the highest recorded rooms and bed spaces sold for any Q1) The latest available accommodation statistics relate to Jan-June 2015 and these have remained positive for hotels but less so for guesthouses, guest accommodation and B&Bs, indicating a more challenging second quarter for this sector Preliminary findings from Tourism NI’s June 2015 Industry Tourism Barometer also suggest that the first half of the year was strong for hotels, attractions and notably golf clubs , with more seasonal sectors such as B&Bs, car hire companies and activity providers finding this period more challenging Northern Ireland Tourism Performance Overview (January-March 2015)
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2) Domestic Overnight Trips (NI to NI)
Jan-March 2014
Jan-March 2015
% Change
Total trips (000)
450
512
+14%
Total nights(000)
707
890
+26%
Total spend (£m)
37
39
+4%
Holiday
212
244
+15%
Visiting friends/relatives (VFR)
181
190
+5%
Business
20
38
+89%
Other
37
41
+11%
Trips by reason for visit (000)
Source: Continuous Household Survey (NISRA)
Figures should be treated with caution due to small sample sizes. As figures relate to Jan-March the picture may change substantially as the year progresses.
Competitor Performance
• Domestic tourism grew significantly in 2014 and this trend has continued for the first three months of 2015 as the domestic market realised growth in all key performance measures • NI residents took an additional 62,000 or 14% more domestic overnight trips, stayed 183,000 more nights and spent an additional £2m compared with the first quarter of 2014 • The increase in trips was spread across all sectors but positively was driven by growth in domestic holidays as well as business trips • The increase in holiday trips accounts for over half of the overall growth in trips while domestic business trips almost doubled compared with Q1 2014 • More NI residents took overnight trips to visit friends and relatives in Q1 2015 • NI residents spent almost 900,000 nights on domestic trips during the first quarter of 2015 • There was slight increase in the average length of stay of a domestic trip compared with Jan-March 2014, however, overall the increase in nights is more a reflection of the additional domestic trips taken • Domestic was the only market to realise growth in spend (4%). This growth, while welcome, was not as strong as that seen for nights due to the fact that on average NI residents spent less per night • The increase in spend in the first quarter of 2015 was solely due to strong growth in domestic holiday spend; declines in spend were evident for all other sectors
NI domestic growth during Q1 2015 was generally more positive than that experienced in ROI but was less strong than the GB domestic growth • ROI domestic trips remained on a par with those recorded for the opening quarter of 2014 compared with a growth of 14% in NI domestic trips • GB domestic tourism performance was very strong for the first quarter of the year, with total trips increasing by over one fifth • NI growth in domestic holiday trips (+15%) was on a par with ROI growth (+14%) but was stronger than increases in GB domestic holidays (+10%) • NI total domestic spend increased by 4%, similar to that experienced in ROI but below the 27% growth evident for GB domestic spend
Northern Ireland Tourism Performance Overview (January-March 2015)
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3) ROI Residents’ Overnight Trips to NI
• •
Jan-March 2014
Jan-March 2015
% Change
Total trips (000)
62
69
+11%
Total nights(000)
195
144
-26%
Total spend (£m)
£14
£12
-16%
Holiday
21
21
+2%
Visiting friends/relatives (VFR)
24
17
-30%
4
8
+125%
14
23
+66%
• •
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We may be starting to turn a corner in the ROI market following small declines in 2014 During the first quarter of the year 7,000 more ROI residents (+11%) chose to take a trip in NI compared with Q1 2014 in spite of currency volatility The growth in trips can be attributed to the business and other sectors (‘other’ includes education & training and looking for work) There was a nominal increase in ROI holiday trips while VFR trips declined, with ROI residents perhaps inviting their NI friends and relatives to visit them instead as a result of the weak euro Indications are that there was an increase in the use of serviced accommodation by this market, particularly hotels. Declines in VFR trips would not be reflected in accommodation figures
Trips by reason for visit (000)
Business Other
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Despite welcoming more ROI visitors, in the context of a challenging exchange rate, their average length of stay and subsequently spend per trip reduced resulting in a decline of 26% in nights and 16% in spend
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Tourism NI’s research shows that our advertising is working in terms of raising awareness. We also know that RoI consumers respond well to ‘word of mouth’ and good deals and offers However, on key areas such as converting more Republic of Ireland trips into overnights stays, there is more work to do
Source : Household Travel Survey (CSO) Figures should be treated with caution due to small sample sizes. As figures relate to Jan-March the picture may change substantially as the year progresses.
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Competitor Performance Increase in ROI outbound trips with much larger growth evident for euro zone countries than those using sterling • • • • •
During Jan-March 2015 ROI domestic trips (ROI to ROI) remained largely unchanged from Q1 2014 while ROI outbound trips (anywhere outside of ROI) increased by 14% The increase in outbound trips was primarily driven by growth in outbound holidays (+26%) Overall, ROI residents took 6% more trips to GB and 11% more trips in NI, with much larger increases of over one quarter recorded for trips to Mainland Europe suggesting the strong pound may be deterring some ROI residents from taking trips in sterling zone destinations ROI outbound nights and spend increased by 14% and 10% respectively on Jan-March 2014 (however ROI residents stayed fewer nights and as a result spent less per trip in NI) The growth in ROI outbound nights and spend was largely fueled by increases in non sterling countries, particularly those in the eurozone
5 Northern Ireland Tourism Performance Overview (January-March 2015)
4) GB & Other Overseas Visitors to NI
Jan-March 2014
Jan-March 2015
% Change
Total GB/Other overseas (000)
319
349
+9%
GB trips (000)
242
262
+8%
Other overseas trips (000)
77
86
+12%
GB/Overseas nights (000)
1,610
1,941
+21%
95
85
-11%
61
68
+13%
187
200
+6.5%
65
74
+13.5%
6
7
+17%
GB/Overseas spend (£m)
GB/Other overseas trips by reason for trip (000) Holiday Visiting friends/relatives Business Other
Sources: Northern Ireland Passenger Survey (NISRA), Survey of Overseas Travellers (Fáilte Ireland) Country of Residence Survey (CSO) Figures should be treated with caution due to small sample sizes.
As figures relate to Jan-March the picture may change substantially as the year progresses.
• GB and Other overseas visitors took an additional 30,000 (+9%) trips in NI in Q1 2015 compared with the first quarter of 2014, with growth driven by increases across all sectors • GB and Other overseas visitors stayed longer but spent less • Growth in holiday and business spend was wiped out by declines in other sectors • Following minimal growth from GB in 2014 the 8% increase in trips from this market in the first quarter of 2015 is welcome • GB trips increased across all sectors with GB holiday and business trips realising growth of 16% and 15% respectively (see overleaf) • VFR trips, which accounted for around 60% of all GB trips taken in Q1 2015, grew by 5% • GB visitors spent 12% more nights in NI in Q1 2015 compared with the first quarter of 2014 • Although we welcomed more GB visitors who stayed longer, GB spend remained unchanged due to a reduction in their average spend per night • Other overseas trips continue to perform strongly with a 12% increase in Q1 2015, although this market is more seasonal (with only 12% of the Other overseas visitors we welcomed in 2014 visiting in Q1 of that year compared with 24% for GB visitors) and visitor numbers at this stage of the year are small • As with GB, the growth in overseas trips was spread across all sectors, however around half of the increase in Other overseas trips can be attributed to those visiting friends and relatives (see overleaf)
Northern Ireland Tourism Performance Overview (January-March 2015)
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4) GB & Other Overseas Visitors to NI
Jan-March 2014
Jan-March 2015
% Change
1,083
1,214
+12%
526
728
+38%
GB Spend (£m)
55
56
No change
Other overseas spend (£m)
40
29
-27%
GB & Other overseas nights and spend GB nights (000) Other overseas nights (000)
• Other overseas holiday trips and business trips increased by 9% and 6% respectively • There was a considerable increase in nights spent in NI by visitors from this market in Q1 2015 • Despite this, Other overseas spend declined by 27%, due to a significant fall in the average spend per night, likely due to the impact of the weak euro
Competitor Performance ROI experienced strong growth in GB and overseas visitor spend while NI and the UK overall suffered declines
GB trips by reason for trip (000) Holiday
33
38
+16%
153
161
+5%
53
61
+15%
3
3
-15%
Holiday
28
30
+9%
Visiting friends/relatives
34
39
+14%
Business
13
13
+6%
2
4
+64%
Visiting friends/relatives Business Other Other Overseas trips by reason for trip (000)
Other
Sources: Northern Ireland Passenger Survey (NISRA), Survey of Overseas Travellers (Fáilte Ireland) Country of Residence Survey (CSO) Figures should be treated with caution due to small sample sizes.
• During Q1 2015 the growth in GB and overseas visitors to ROI was slightly stronger than that seen in NI (+9% for NI v +13% for ROI) and each experienced a rise of 13% in GB and overseas holiday trips • Overseas trips to the UK increased nominally in the first quarter of the year, with a 5% fall in holiday trips • ROI welcomed 14% more GB visitors compared with 8% for NI while growth realised in visitors from Other overseas visitors was similar for NI and ROI • Unlike NI, the ROI realised growth in GB and overseas spend of 10% . Overseas visitors to the UK spent 5% less than they did in Q1 2014, undoubtedly influenced by the weak euro • Jan-June 2015 ROI tourism performance figures have been released and have remained positive, with little change overall in GB and Other overseas trips compared with JanMarch period • This could bode well for NI, although the weak euro provides ROI with a competitive advantage. • The latest available overseas figures for the UK relate to JanMarch 2015
As figures relate to Jan-March the picture may change substantially as the year progresses. Northern Ireland Tourism Performance Overview (January-March 2015)
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5) Hotel Performance (Jan-June 2015)
Room Occupancy Jan-June 2015
67%
Bed-space Occupancy Jan-June 2015
+5pps on Jan-June 2014
+8pps on Jan-June 2014
50%
• During Jan-June 2015 hotel room occupancy increased by 5 percentage points while bed-space occupancy recorded an increase of 8 percentage points
pps= percentage points
Rooms Sold
Bedspaces Sold
Jan-June 2015 was positive overall for the NI hotel industry, realising growth and record levels for rooms and bedspaces sold
943,917
Up 7% on JanJune 2014
1,581,563
Up 17% on Jan-June 2014
• The number of hotel rooms sold during Jan-June 2015 increased by 7% while bed-spaces sold recorded an increase of 17% and represent the highest recorded rooms and bedspaces sold for the period Jan-June since records began (previous highest for each was Jan-June 2014). There were 943,917 hotel rooms and 1,581,563 bed-spaces sold during Jan-June 2015
• At the end of June 2015 there were 134 hotels operating in NI with 7,797 rooms and 17,484 bed-spaces, no change on the number of rooms and bed-spaces available on Jan-June 2014 8 Northern Ireland Tourism Performance Overview (January-June 2015)
6) Guest House, Guest Accommodation and B&B Performance (Jan-June 2015)
Bed-space Occupancy Jan-June 2015
Room Occupancy Jan-June 2015
24%
No change on Jan-June 2014
17%
No change on Jan-June 2014
Rooms Sold
127,519
Down 5% on Jan-June 2014
Bed-spaces Sold
216,887
No change on Jan-June 2014
Guest house, guest accommodation and B&Bs had a less positive first half of the year than hotels
• At the end of June 2015 there were 684 guesthouses, guest accommodation and B&B establishments (excluding campus) operating with 2,956 rooms and 6,767 bed-spaces available, showing a 4% decrease on both rooms and bed-spaces available compared with the end June 2014
• Despite the reduction in capacity (which can result in increased occupancy rates as there are fewer rooms/ bed-spaces available ) the guesthouse, guest accommodation and B&B room occupancy and bedspace occupancy rate remained unchanged from Jan-June 2014 • The number of rooms sold decreased by 5% while bed-spaces sold recorded no change compared to Jan-June 2014
Northern Ireland Tourism Performance Overview (January-June 2015)
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