northeast group, llc Global LED and Smart Street Lighting: Market Forecast ( ) Volume III October 2016

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Global LED and Smart Street Lighting: Market Forecast (2016 – 2026)

Volume III October 2016 | www.northeast-group.com

Global LED and Smart Street Lighting: Market Forecast (2016 – 2026) There are currently 315 million total streetlights in the world. This number will grow to 359 million total

Global streetlight networking market share (deployed and announced) Source: Northeast Group

streetlights by 2026. The public outdoor lighting market is currently undergoing a period of change where legacy streetlights are being replaced with new and more efficient LED, or solid-state lighting, technology. Taking this new technology a step further, these LED streetlights are also being networked together with communications to become “smart” streetlights. This study analyzes and forecasts the global market for both LED and smart street lighting through 2026.

LED streetlights in India as part of EESL rollout, as of September 2016

LED streetlights will transform cities and municipalities Himachal Pradesh 50

across the globe over the next decade. LEDs offer longer lifetimes, lower energy consumption, and

Delhi 189,479

Assam 3,535

reduced maintenance expenses when compared with legacy streetlight technologies. In most developed

India total: 1,149,936

Rajasthan 429,966

Bihar 150

Uttar Pradesh 17,290

countries, LEDs are already an economically beneficial alternative to existing streetlights over the lifetime of the streetlight when energy savings are considered,

Tripura 34,200

Maharashtra 659 Telengana 971

despite their higher upfront cost. But in the next few years, LED streetlights are expected to reach cost

Andhra Pradesh 465,631

parity with legacy technologies (and in some cases already

have),

making

their

benefits

to

Kerala 7,705

costs

Source: EESL

immediately positive. At this point, they will make economic sense as replacements in almost all countries. Also, many emerging market countries Price per streetlight for 100 W LED Highest price found for 2016 project (could include decorative) Current 2016 global average estimate price Previous 2016 global average estimate price Lowest price found for 2016 project

Lowest unit price found

are rapidly urbanizing and in need of improved urban infrastructure, creating further drivers for this market. From 2016 to 2026, global investment in LED street lighting is expected to be $57 billion. But LEDs are not the sole element in modernized public

outdoor

lighting.

Networked

“smart”

streetlights help cities further reduce costs with their dimming capabilities and reduced maintenance costs. As the costs for networked streetlights also rapidly decline, these smart streetlights will find a growing role in cities and municipalities across the © 2016 Northeast Group, LLC

globe. Smart street lighting is already

Average 10-year savings per streetlight from LEDs by region

taking off in major markets such as the US, UK,

and

China.

In

many

developed

countries, smart streetlights are serving as part of larger “smart city” concepts, where communications networks can be used to link items such as electricity and water meters, traffic lights, and parking meters. Smart streetlights also greatly improve safety conditions in a city by reducing the

Source: Northeast Group

“down time” of streetlights. As soon as lamps expire,

Types of streetlights in Brazil (2016)

officials are notified, so streets rarely go without lighting. In many emerging market metropolises–and US cities–that are managing rising street crime, this

High%pressure%sodium%

6%

Mercury%vapor%

will be a particularly strong benefit.

LED% Mixed% 30%

Overall, the LED and smart streetlight market

Incandescent% 59%

remains young, and some challenges must be overcome. Most importantly, costs must continue to fall for financing to be feasible in many countries –

Fluorescent% Mul504W)4units High4wattage4(>504W)4value4($M) Smart/Networking4units4(nodes) Smart/Networking4value4($M)

2016 X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X

2017 X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X

2018 X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X

2019 X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X

2020 X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X

2021 X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X

2022 X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X

2023 X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X

2024 X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X

2025 X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X

2026 X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X

Table of Contents

i. Executive Summary

1

i.i What’s new in 2016?

5

ii. Methodology

12

1. Introduction

15

1.1 What makes infrastructure “smart?”

15

1.2 Smart infrastructure applications

18

1.3 How do smart infrastructure applications build on each other?

24

2. Overview of LED and smart streetlight benefits

26

2.1 Background of LED streetlights and comparison with other lighting technologies

26

2.2 Cost savings potential of LEDs

32

2.3 Advanced “smart” street lighting features

36

3. Challenges for LED and smart streetlight systems

45

3.1 Financing challenges

45

3.2 Non-financial hurdles

49

4. Case studies

58

4.1 Characteristics of LED and smart streetlight projects © 2016 Northeast Group, LLC

58

Table of Contents (cont.)

4.2 Chicago, US

61

4.3 Bhopal, India

62

4.4 Gloucestershire, UK

64

4.5 Melbourne, Australia

65

4.6 Phoenix, US

66

4.7 Madrid, Spain

68

4.8 Florida, US

69

4.8 San José, US

70

4.10 Chattanooga, US

72

4.11 São Paulo, Brazil

75

4.12 South Korea (nationwide)

76

4.13 Buenos Aires, Argentina

77

4.14 Copenhagen, Denmark

78

4.15 Bratislava, Slovakia

79

4.16 Almaty, Kazakhstan

81

4.17 Abu Dhabi, UAE

82

4.18 Durban, South Africa

83

4.10 Kolkata, India

85

4.20 Dongguan, China

87

4.21 Hanoi, Vietnam

89

5. Market forecast

91

5.1 Total number of streetlights

91

5.2 LED and smart streetlight pace

93

5.3 Cost of LED and smart streetlight deployments

94

5.4 LED streetlight market forecast

96

5.5 Smart streetlight market forecast

99

6. Leading markets

102

6.1 United States

103

6.2 China

103

6.3 Japan

104

6.4 Germany

104

© 2016 Northeast Group, LLC

Table of Contents (cont.)

6.5 Brazil

105

6.6 India

105

6.7 Mexico

106

6.8 France

106

6.9 United Kingdom

107

6.10 Turkey

107

6.11 South Korea

108

6.12 Italy

108

7. Vendors

109

7.1 Market trends

109

7.2 Leading LED and smart streetlight vendors

115

8. Appendix

143

8.1 List of projects assessed in this study

143

8.2 List of abbreviations

159

8.3 List of companies mentioned in this study

161

List of Figures, Boxes, and Tables

Global LED and smart street lighting: key takeaways

4

Global streetlight networking market share

5

Price per streetlight for 100 W LED

7

Combined cumulative LED and networked streetlight value by year

7

Cumulative total networked streetlights by region

8

Notable smart streetlight partnerships in the past year

9

LED streetlights in India as part of EESL rollout

10

Highlights from the leading markets

11

LED and smart streetlight forecast methodology

13

Table 1.1: Smart infrastructure market segments

16

Figure 1.1: Smart infrastructure overview

18

Table 1.2: Communications technologies

20

Figure 1.2: Smart grid value chain

21

Table 2.1: LED streetlight benefits

26

Figure 2.1: Streetlight directional control

27

© 2016 Northeast Group, LLC

1

List of Figures, Boxes, and Tables (cont.)

Figure 2.2: Response to LED streetlights in Northeast Group’s US survey

28

Table 2.2: Different types of streetlight luminaires

28

Figure 2.3: Types of streetlights in Brazil

31

Table 2.3: HPS to LED wattage cross-reference

32

Figure 2.4: Comparison of savings percentages in Sri Lanka and Ukraine

32

Table 2.4: Estimate of payback on LED streetlights in Sri Lanka

33

Figure 2.5: Payback on replacement LED streetlights in Sri Lanka

33

Table 2.5: Estimate of payback on LED streetlights in Ukraine

33

Figure 2.6: Payback on replacement LED streetlights in Ukraine

34

Table 2.6: Estimate of payback on LED streetlights in Germany

34

Figure 2.7: Payback on replacement LED streetlights in Germany

34

Figure 2.8: Average 10-year savings per streetlight from LEDs by region

35

Figure 2.9: Smart streetlight model with different communications systems

37

Figure 2.10: Global average savings from smart streetlights based on networking costs

39

Figure 2.11: 10-year breakeven point for networked streetlights based solely on dimming 40 Figure 2.12: Average electricity prices by region

41

Figure 2.13: Average payback on networked streetlights

42

Table 2.7: Estimate of payback on networked streetlights

42

Table 2.8: Summary of cost-benefit analysis examples

44

Table 3.1: Streetlight financing in Europe

46

Table 3.2: Streetlight ownership models

49

Figure 3.1: Countries with only state-owned utilities

50

Figure 3.2: Legal framework for assessing liability of streetlights

54

Table 3.3: Dimming criteria for the standard IESNA RP-8-05

55

Figure 3.3: Countries with NEMA sockets

56

Figure 4.1: Locations of reporting LED and smart streetlight projects

57

Table 4.1: Summary of case studies

58

Figure 4.2: Case study examples in this study

60

Table 5.1: Total number of streetlights

91

Table 5.2: Cumulative investment in LED and smart streetlights

92

Figure 5.1: Cumulative investment in LED and smart streetlights

92

Figure 5.2: Global LED and smart streetlight penetration rate

93

Figure 5.3: Common types of LED streetlight fixtures

94

Figure 5.4: Average cost per streetlight of smart LED projects

94

© 2016 Northeast Group, LLC

List of Figures, Boxes, and Tables (cont.)

Table 5.3: LED and smart streetlight market drivers and barriers

95

Figure 5.5: LED streetlight forecast by lamp type

97

Table 5.4: LED streetlight forecast data by type

97

Figure 5.6: LED streetlight forecast with installation separate

98

Table 5.5: LED streetlight forecast data by region

98

Figure 5.7: Regional LED streetlight forecast

99

Table 5.6: Smart streetlight forecast data

100

Figure 5.8: Smart streetlight forecast

100

Figure 5.9: Regional smart streetlight forecast

101

Table 5.7: Smart streetlight forecast data by region

101

Figure 6.1: Annual LED streetlight value in leading markets

102

Figure 6.2: Annual smart streetlight value in leading markets

102

Leading markets snapshots United States

103

China

103

Japan

104

Germany

104

Brazil

105

India

105

Mexico

106

France

106

United Kingdom

107

Turkey

107

South Korea

108

Italy

108

Figure 7.1: Global streetlight networking market share

110

Figure 7.2: Streetlight networking market share in the Americas

110

Figure 7.3: Streetlight networking market share in EMEA

111

Figure 7.4: Streetlight networking market share in Asia-Pac

111

Table 7.1: Vendors responding to RFI for street lighting in Chicago

112

Figure 7.5: Locations of smart streetlight vendors

113

Table 7.2: Streetlight vendor partnerships

114

Table 7.3: Notable smart streetlight partnerships in the past year

115

Figure 7.6: Relative manufacturing costs of LED chip components

115

© 2016 Northeast Group, LLC

List of Figures, Boxes, and Tables (cont.)

Figure 7.7: Smart lighting value chain

116

Table 7.4: LED chip vendors

122

Table 7.5: LED wafer vendors

122

Table 7.6: LED phosphor vendors

122

Table 7.7: LED driver vendors

123

Table 7.8: General LED lighting vendors

125

Table 7.9: Streetlight network and control vendors

131

Table 7.10: Streetlight communications vendors

138

© 2016 Northeast Group, LLC

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