northeast group, llc
Global LED and Smart Street Lighting: Market Forecast (2016 – 2026)
Volume III October 2016 | www.northeast-group.com
Global LED and Smart Street Lighting: Market Forecast (2016 – 2026) There are currently 315 million total streetlights in the world. This number will grow to 359 million total
Global streetlight networking market share (deployed and announced) Source: Northeast Group
streetlights by 2026. The public outdoor lighting market is currently undergoing a period of change where legacy streetlights are being replaced with new and more efficient LED, or solid-state lighting, technology. Taking this new technology a step further, these LED streetlights are also being networked together with communications to become “smart” streetlights. This study analyzes and forecasts the global market for both LED and smart street lighting through 2026.
LED streetlights in India as part of EESL rollout, as of September 2016
LED streetlights will transform cities and municipalities Himachal Pradesh 50
across the globe over the next decade. LEDs offer longer lifetimes, lower energy consumption, and
Delhi 189,479
Assam 3,535
reduced maintenance expenses when compared with legacy streetlight technologies. In most developed
India total: 1,149,936
Rajasthan 429,966
Bihar 150
Uttar Pradesh 17,290
countries, LEDs are already an economically beneficial alternative to existing streetlights over the lifetime of the streetlight when energy savings are considered,
Tripura 34,200
Maharashtra 659 Telengana 971
despite their higher upfront cost. But in the next few years, LED streetlights are expected to reach cost
Andhra Pradesh 465,631
parity with legacy technologies (and in some cases already
have),
making
their
benefits
to
Kerala 7,705
costs
Source: EESL
immediately positive. At this point, they will make economic sense as replacements in almost all countries. Also, many emerging market countries Price per streetlight for 100 W LED Highest price found for 2016 project (could include decorative) Current 2016 global average estimate price Previous 2016 global average estimate price Lowest price found for 2016 project
Lowest unit price found
are rapidly urbanizing and in need of improved urban infrastructure, creating further drivers for this market. From 2016 to 2026, global investment in LED street lighting is expected to be $57 billion. But LEDs are not the sole element in modernized public
outdoor
lighting.
Networked
“smart”
streetlights help cities further reduce costs with their dimming capabilities and reduced maintenance costs. As the costs for networked streetlights also rapidly decline, these smart streetlights will find a growing role in cities and municipalities across the © 2016 Northeast Group, LLC
globe. Smart street lighting is already
Average 10-year savings per streetlight from LEDs by region
taking off in major markets such as the US, UK,
and
China.
In
many
developed
countries, smart streetlights are serving as part of larger “smart city” concepts, where communications networks can be used to link items such as electricity and water meters, traffic lights, and parking meters. Smart streetlights also greatly improve safety conditions in a city by reducing the
Source: Northeast Group
“down time” of streetlights. As soon as lamps expire,
Types of streetlights in Brazil (2016)
officials are notified, so streets rarely go without lighting. In many emerging market metropolises–and US cities–that are managing rising street crime, this
High%pressure%sodium%
6%
Mercury%vapor%
will be a particularly strong benefit.
LED% Mixed% 30%
Overall, the LED and smart streetlight market
Incandescent% 59%
remains young, and some challenges must be overcome. Most importantly, costs must continue to fall for financing to be feasible in many countries –
Fluorescent% Mul504W)4units High4wattage4(>504W)4value4($M) Smart/Networking4units4(nodes) Smart/Networking4value4($M)
2016 X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X
2017 X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X
2018 X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X
2019 X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X
2020 X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X
2021 X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X
2022 X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X
2023 X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X
2024 X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X
2025 X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X
2026 X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X X.X $X.X
Table of Contents
i. Executive Summary
1
i.i What’s new in 2016?
5
ii. Methodology
12
1. Introduction
15
1.1 What makes infrastructure “smart?”
15
1.2 Smart infrastructure applications
18
1.3 How do smart infrastructure applications build on each other?
24
2. Overview of LED and smart streetlight benefits
26
2.1 Background of LED streetlights and comparison with other lighting technologies
26
2.2 Cost savings potential of LEDs
32
2.3 Advanced “smart” street lighting features
36
3. Challenges for LED and smart streetlight systems
45
3.1 Financing challenges
45
3.2 Non-financial hurdles
49
4. Case studies
58
4.1 Characteristics of LED and smart streetlight projects © 2016 Northeast Group, LLC
58
Table of Contents (cont.)
4.2 Chicago, US
61
4.3 Bhopal, India
62
4.4 Gloucestershire, UK
64
4.5 Melbourne, Australia
65
4.6 Phoenix, US
66
4.7 Madrid, Spain
68
4.8 Florida, US
69
4.8 San José, US
70
4.10 Chattanooga, US
72
4.11 São Paulo, Brazil
75
4.12 South Korea (nationwide)
76
4.13 Buenos Aires, Argentina
77
4.14 Copenhagen, Denmark
78
4.15 Bratislava, Slovakia
79
4.16 Almaty, Kazakhstan
81
4.17 Abu Dhabi, UAE
82
4.18 Durban, South Africa
83
4.10 Kolkata, India
85
4.20 Dongguan, China
87
4.21 Hanoi, Vietnam
89
5. Market forecast
91
5.1 Total number of streetlights
91
5.2 LED and smart streetlight pace
93
5.3 Cost of LED and smart streetlight deployments
94
5.4 LED streetlight market forecast
96
5.5 Smart streetlight market forecast
99
6. Leading markets
102
6.1 United States
103
6.2 China
103
6.3 Japan
104
6.4 Germany
104
© 2016 Northeast Group, LLC
Table of Contents (cont.)
6.5 Brazil
105
6.6 India
105
6.7 Mexico
106
6.8 France
106
6.9 United Kingdom
107
6.10 Turkey
107
6.11 South Korea
108
6.12 Italy
108
7. Vendors
109
7.1 Market trends
109
7.2 Leading LED and smart streetlight vendors
115
8. Appendix
143
8.1 List of projects assessed in this study
143
8.2 List of abbreviations
159
8.3 List of companies mentioned in this study
161
List of Figures, Boxes, and Tables
Global LED and smart street lighting: key takeaways
4
Global streetlight networking market share
5
Price per streetlight for 100 W LED
7
Combined cumulative LED and networked streetlight value by year
7
Cumulative total networked streetlights by region
8
Notable smart streetlight partnerships in the past year
9
LED streetlights in India as part of EESL rollout
10
Highlights from the leading markets
11
LED and smart streetlight forecast methodology
13
Table 1.1: Smart infrastructure market segments
16
Figure 1.1: Smart infrastructure overview
18
Table 1.2: Communications technologies
20
Figure 1.2: Smart grid value chain
21
Table 2.1: LED streetlight benefits
26
Figure 2.1: Streetlight directional control
27
© 2016 Northeast Group, LLC
1
List of Figures, Boxes, and Tables (cont.)
Figure 2.2: Response to LED streetlights in Northeast Group’s US survey
28
Table 2.2: Different types of streetlight luminaires
28
Figure 2.3: Types of streetlights in Brazil
31
Table 2.3: HPS to LED wattage cross-reference
32
Figure 2.4: Comparison of savings percentages in Sri Lanka and Ukraine
32
Table 2.4: Estimate of payback on LED streetlights in Sri Lanka
33
Figure 2.5: Payback on replacement LED streetlights in Sri Lanka
33
Table 2.5: Estimate of payback on LED streetlights in Ukraine
33
Figure 2.6: Payback on replacement LED streetlights in Ukraine
34
Table 2.6: Estimate of payback on LED streetlights in Germany
34
Figure 2.7: Payback on replacement LED streetlights in Germany
34
Figure 2.8: Average 10-year savings per streetlight from LEDs by region
35
Figure 2.9: Smart streetlight model with different communications systems
37
Figure 2.10: Global average savings from smart streetlights based on networking costs
39
Figure 2.11: 10-year breakeven point for networked streetlights based solely on dimming 40 Figure 2.12: Average electricity prices by region
41
Figure 2.13: Average payback on networked streetlights
42
Table 2.7: Estimate of payback on networked streetlights
42
Table 2.8: Summary of cost-benefit analysis examples
44
Table 3.1: Streetlight financing in Europe
46
Table 3.2: Streetlight ownership models
49
Figure 3.1: Countries with only state-owned utilities
50
Figure 3.2: Legal framework for assessing liability of streetlights
54
Table 3.3: Dimming criteria for the standard IESNA RP-8-05
55
Figure 3.3: Countries with NEMA sockets
56
Figure 4.1: Locations of reporting LED and smart streetlight projects
57
Table 4.1: Summary of case studies
58
Figure 4.2: Case study examples in this study
60
Table 5.1: Total number of streetlights
91
Table 5.2: Cumulative investment in LED and smart streetlights
92
Figure 5.1: Cumulative investment in LED and smart streetlights
92
Figure 5.2: Global LED and smart streetlight penetration rate
93
Figure 5.3: Common types of LED streetlight fixtures
94
Figure 5.4: Average cost per streetlight of smart LED projects
94
© 2016 Northeast Group, LLC
List of Figures, Boxes, and Tables (cont.)
Table 5.3: LED and smart streetlight market drivers and barriers
95
Figure 5.5: LED streetlight forecast by lamp type
97
Table 5.4: LED streetlight forecast data by type
97
Figure 5.6: LED streetlight forecast with installation separate
98
Table 5.5: LED streetlight forecast data by region
98
Figure 5.7: Regional LED streetlight forecast
99
Table 5.6: Smart streetlight forecast data
100
Figure 5.8: Smart streetlight forecast
100
Figure 5.9: Regional smart streetlight forecast
101
Table 5.7: Smart streetlight forecast data by region
101
Figure 6.1: Annual LED streetlight value in leading markets
102
Figure 6.2: Annual smart streetlight value in leading markets
102
Leading markets snapshots United States
103
China
103
Japan
104
Germany
104
Brazil
105
India
105
Mexico
106
France
106
United Kingdom
107
Turkey
107
South Korea
108
Italy
108
Figure 7.1: Global streetlight networking market share
110
Figure 7.2: Streetlight networking market share in the Americas
110
Figure 7.3: Streetlight networking market share in EMEA
111
Figure 7.4: Streetlight networking market share in Asia-Pac
111
Table 7.1: Vendors responding to RFI for street lighting in Chicago
112
Figure 7.5: Locations of smart streetlight vendors
113
Table 7.2: Streetlight vendor partnerships
114
Table 7.3: Notable smart streetlight partnerships in the past year
115
Figure 7.6: Relative manufacturing costs of LED chip components
115
© 2016 Northeast Group, LLC
List of Figures, Boxes, and Tables (cont.)
Figure 7.7: Smart lighting value chain
116
Table 7.4: LED chip vendors
122
Table 7.5: LED wafer vendors
122
Table 7.6: LED phosphor vendors
122
Table 7.7: LED driver vendors
123
Table 7.8: General LED lighting vendors
125
Table 7.9: Streetlight network and control vendors
131
Table 7.10: Streetlight communications vendors
138
© 2016 Northeast Group, LLC
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