4 March 2013

Nordic Morning Wrap Remember to visit our website on http://www.handelsbanken.se/research/equity. Request a password from the site or talk to your sales contact.

Morning Meeting Agenda Elekta (Reduce) SEK 97 - Levels the competitive playing field with Versa • Versa HD – High-dose rate (FFF) LINAC + Agility MLC •

Most modern LINAC on the market but no wow factor

•

Get expert opinion in Handelsbanken conference call

STHLM

OSL

HELS

COPH

0.0%

-0.3%

-0.1%

0.5%

Today’s events Recommendation changes

Novo Nordisk (Buy) DKK 997.5 - What to look for in obesity data • First obesity data just around the corner

Lundbeck

•

Potentially confirming liraglutide’s ‘diabesity’ targeting profile

EPS revisions

•

Obesity potential yet to be included in our numbers - BUY

Lundbeck (Reduce) DKK 99.95 - Fully priced for now • Target price increased to DKK 100 (99) •

Share appears fully valued for now; down to REDUCE (Acc.)

•

Potential for renewed interest around Alzheimer’s data in July

Company

Red (Acc)

FY1 New

Royal Unibrew 33.68 Rockwool 36.58 North Atlantic Drilling 1.19 Chr. Hansen 1.09

% chg

FY2 New

% chg

0 38.73 -7 42.26 -15 1.31 -3 1.27

-1 -7 -14 0

Corporate (local time)

Rockwool (Reduce) DKK 709.5 - Trading headwinds to continue • Weak Q4 and disappointing guidance •

EPS estimates cut by 7% – street forecasts to come down

•

9-12% premium to sector unwarranted – REDUCE

Hsbc Holdings Kuehne & Nagel Pko Bank Polski Transocean Roadshows/Seminars

Other topics • Nordea •

TDC

•

Statoil

•

Quant

Pandora Diös Macro EZ PPI y-o-y (Jan) e

Production: Content:

Viktor Malmström, +46 8 701 31 47, [email protected] Peter Karlsson, +46 8 701 21 51, [email protected] For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

Stockholm Stockholm Expected

Previous

1.7%

2.2%

Research Reports Chr. Hansen (Reduce) DKK 206.5 - Clinical studies put on hold • Disappointing results from another study •

EUR 8m impairment charge

•

REDUCE and target price of DKK 180 reiterated

North Atlantic Drilling (Buy) NOK 56.89 - Encouraging harsh environment market • Some downtime continued in Q4 •

Harsh environment market to remain solid

•

Cut in estimates due to lower utilisation – BUY reiterated

Royal Unibrew (Accumulate) DKK 532 - Ahead of March 7 • Will new profitability target be announced? •

Getting cash back to investors is still in focus

•

Potential for EO dividend / new targets - still ACCUMULATE

Fast Comments D/S Norden (Accumulate) DKK 179.3 - Consensus is slightly more optimistic on Q4 2012 • EBIT loss due to loss from vessel sales •

EBITDA of USD 120m expected in 2013 - in line with market

•

Market sees drop of DKK 16 per share in NAV q-o-q

Meda (Buy) SEK 72.55 - Growth returned to Dymista and market in week 8 • Dymista weekly TRx up 5% •

Market grew by 11%

•

First week with impact from the allergy season

Statoil (Accumulate) NOK 142.7 - Meeting with CEO: Cost-reduction efforts a very high priority • Intensified focus on cost reductions in Statoil

4 March 2013

•

Standardisation, efficiency and use of service providers in global competition

•

CEO unconvinced shale will become an important part of European energy supply

Nordic Morning Wrap 2

Key market movements Markets

Value

Day-to-day performance % -1d -2d -3d -4d -5d

DJ Stoxx Nordic DJ Stoxx Nordic Small Cap OMXC20 OMXH25 OSLO OBX OMXS30 S&P500 Nasdaq DJ Stoxx 600 Hang Seng MSCI Asia Pacific Topix 100 India BSE

482 301 549 2.348 330 1.199 1.518 3.170 289 22.880 135 660 5.741

0.3 0.0 0.5 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 -0.3 -0.6 -0.3 1.0 0.4

0.5 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.4 -0.1 -0.1 1.0 2.0 1.4 2.4 -1.9

0.7 1.0 -0.3 1.5 0.1 1.1 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.3 -0.2 -1.7 0.8

-1.0 -1.5 0.3 -2.3 -0.7 -1.5 0.6 0.4 -1.3 -1.3 -0.6 -1.5 -1.6

Performance % -3m -6m -1y

-1w

-1m

0.0 0.2 0.7 0.0 0.8 -0.5 -1.8 -1.4 -0.1 0.2 0.5 1.9 -0.1

0 0 2 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 -2

2 5 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 -4 1 4 -5

11 13 11 9 5 10 8 6 5 5 8 27 -3

13 19 11 16 6 14 8 3 8 17 14 37 10

YTD

12 months High Low

13 22 20 5 5 9 10 6 8 7 5 18 7

9 11 11 6 6 9 6 5 3 1 4 15 -4

483 360 302 214 557 415 2.390 1.762 334 262 1.205 946 1.531 1.278 3.214 2.747 290 234 23.822 18.186 135 109 660 461 6.151 4.854

SHB Nordix sectors indices

Value

-1d

-2d

-3d

-4d

-5d

-1w

-1m

-3m

-6m

-1y

YTD

High

Low

Automobiles & Components Banks Capital Goods Commercial Serv & Support Consumer Durable & Appliances Diversified Financials Energy Food & Drug Retailing Food, Beverage & Tobacco Healthcare Equip & Services Hotels, Rest. & Leisure Insurance Materials Media Pharmaceutical & Biotechnology Real Estate Retailing Software & Services Technology Hardw & Equipment Telecomm. Services Transportation Utilities

3.607 1.877 2.547 1.016 1.052 1.638 2.929 3.036 3.328 7.940 603 977 1.088 484 3.200 3.020 1.621 192 146 572 1.984 200

-0.1 0.6 0.1 1.1 0.6 0.1 -0.5 -0.5 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.8 -0.4 -0.3 1.0 0.0 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.0 -1.0 -0.1

0.5 1.1 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.3 -0.4 1.8 1.6 0.4 1.2 0.5 -0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 1.1 0.1 -1.0 0.0 0.6 1.1

0.7 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.5 1.3 0.4 -0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.8 -0.6 0.9 0.6 1.0 2.5 1.0 0.0 0.5

-1.9 -1.3 -1.5 -0.9 0.0 -1.1 -0.5 -1.8 -0.1 -1.3 -0.3 -1.1 -0.5 0.0 0.9 -0.5 -1.9 -1.3 -1.9 -1.0 0.0 -2.0

-0.8 -0.3 -0.5 0.5 -1.1 -0.6 0.5 0.0 0.2 -0.4 0.0 -0.6 0.8 0.0 0.9 0.8 -0.9 0.0 0.7 0.3 1.6 -0.3

-2 1 0 3 1 1 0 -1 2 -1 2 0 0 1 3 2 0 0 1 0 1 -1

6 7 5 11 7 6 -3 10 1 2 3 6 -1 8 -2 8 1 6 3 -3 1 4

8 22 10 26 13 21 1 18 8 6 7 13 4 8 8 14 13 17 21 0 11 3

9 23 21 30 27 26 -4 28 7 12 24 22 7 5 7 17 -2 25 25 -1 16 -2

1 27 13 24 33 16 -7 17 29 27 25 33 0 2 24 20 2 11 9 -6 5 -22

8 22 9 18 11 13 2 16 9 3 11 13 3 7 9 13 7 15 14 1 5 3

3.865 1.877 2.582 1.016 1.052 1.638 3.150 3.082 3.328 7.997 618 977 1.108 512 3.348 3.056 1.779 194 148 608 2.043 265

2.898 1.201 1.863 754 662 1.130 2.500 2.112 2.545 6.155 437 636 882 398 2.526 2.175 1.352 138 99 504 1.516 177

Exchange rates %-change

Value

-1d

-2d

-3d

-4d

-5d

-1w

-1m

-3m

-6m

-1y

YTD

High

Low

1.30 121 93 8.39 6.46 7.50 5.78 5.74

-0.7 0.6 1.3 -0.5 0.2 0.3 1.0 0.7

-0.3 0.4 0.7 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3

0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.3

-1.1 -3.3 -2.2 -0.2 0.8 -0.3 0.7 1.0

0.4 1.0 0.6 0.1 -0.3 0.2 -0.2 -0.4

-1 -1 0 -1 0 0 2 1

-5 -4 1 -3 3 1 6 5

-1 13 14 -3 -2 2 3 1

3 23 19 0 -4 3 -1 -3

-3 12 15 -5 -2 1 4 3

-2 6 8 -2 -1 2 4 1

1.37 127 94 9.14 7.27 7.64 6.15 6.16

1.21 95 77 8.19 6.28 7.27 5.43 5.45

EUR/USD EUR/YEN USD/YEN EUR/SEK USD/SEK EUR/NOK USD/NOK USD/DKK

Interest rates bp change US 10y bond EMU 10y bond Sweden 10y bond Denmark 10y bond Norway 10y bond US 3m BBA LIBOR EMU 3m EURIBOR Sweden 3m Stibor Denmark 3m CIBOR Norway 3m NIBOR

Value

-1d

-2d

-3d

-4d

-5d

-1w

-1m

-3m

-6m

-1y

YTD

High

Low

1.85 1.41 1.88 1.56 2.38 0.28 0.13 1.23 0.29 1.86

-3.6 -4.6 -0.1 -3.3 -2.6 -0.3 -0.4 1.0 -1.5 0.0

-2.4 0.1 2.9 1.0 3.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 -0.4 -2.0

2.1 -0.1 -7.1 -1.9 -4.1 0.1 -0.2 0.8 -1.0 -2.0

1.7 -11.2 -9.8 -11.4 -7.6 0.0 -0.2 0.6 -0.4 4.0

-9.8 -0.2 0.5 0.4 1.6 -0.2 -0.6 0.6 -0.4 1.0

-12 -16 -14 -15 -9 0 -1 3 -4 1

-14 -22 -11 -18 -9 -1 -3 5 -5 -2

29 7 37 52 30 -2 0 -21 3 -3

33 12 51 51 47 -13 -4 -72 0 -16

-17 -30 10 -13 17 -19 -75 -114 -68 -77

21 26 49 66 38 -2 1 -9 4 2

2.38 2.06 2.11 2.07 2.62 0.48 0.88 2.36 1.00 2.66

1.39 1.17 1.11 0.95 1.58 0.28 0.12 1.16 0.27 1.81

High

Low

Commodities %-change

Value

-1d

-2d

-3d

-4d

-5d

-1w

-1m

-3m

-6m

-1y

YTD

Brent oil Gold Silver Aluminium Copper Nickel Zinc CRB Index Baltic Dry Freight CBOE VIX

111 1.579 28.0 1.829 7.673 16.543 1.998 545 776 15

-1.7 -0.3 -3.2 -1.2 -1.4 0.0 -2.4 -1.0 2.5 -1.0

-0.1 -1.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.7 -0.7 -1.3 0.1 1.6 5.3

-0.6 -0.3 1.1 -0.9 0.1 0.5 -0.9 -0.1 0.5 -12.7

-1.4 1.2 -1.4 -0.2 0.3 -0.4 0.7 0.0 -0.3 -11.2

0.9 0.9 1.3 -1.7 0.5 -1.6 0.3 0.2 0.4 34.0

-3 0 -3 -4 -1 -2 -3 -1 5 8

-5 -5 -11 0 -7 -11 -7 -5 3 19

-2 -8 -16 -9 -4 -5 -1 -5 -28 -8

-4 -7 -12 2 0 2 8 -6 11 -12

-11 -8 -19 -18 -11 -15 -4 -9 2 -11

0 -5 -6 -4 -3 -3 -3 -2 11 -15

126 90 1.792 1.541 35 27 2.230 1.720 8.675 7.283 19.493 15.190 2.185 1.758 598 504 1.165 661 27 12

Source: Thomson Financial

4 March 2013

Nordic Morning Wrap 3

Yesterday’s stock moves Large caps Denmark Gainers

Laggards

% Finland

% Norway

% Sweden

%

H. Lundbeck

3.2 Kone (Class B (FI))

1.1 Seadrill Ltd.

GN Store Nord

2.7 Stora Enso (Class A)

1.1 Royal Caribbean Cruises L

0.8 Securitas

1.7

Topdanmark

1.8 Sampo (Class A)

1.0 Gjensidige Forsikring

0.6 Swedbank (Class A)

1.2

Danske Bank

1.7 Outotec

0.9 Fred. Olsen Energy

0.6 Investment Kinnevik (Class

0.9

G4S PLC (GB Listing)

1.2 Stora Enso (Class R)

0.8 Telenor (Ordinary)

0.2 Holmen (Class A)

0.9

1.1 Husqvarna (Class A)

3.8

A.P. Moeller-Maersk AS C

-2.2 Nokia

-1.9 Petroleum Geo-Services

-1.9 Nokia

-2.6

Kobenhavns Lufthavne

-2.1 Neste Oil

-1.0 Marine Harvest

-1.7 Lundin Mining

-2.5

A.P. Moeller-Maersk AS C

-1.5 Kesko (Class A)

-0.9 Aker Solutions

-1.1 Ratos (Class A)

-2.4

Rockwool International (Cl

-1.3 Nokian Renkaat

-0.9 Norsk Hydro

-1.0 Investment Latour (Class B -2.0

FLSmidth & Co. (Ordinary)

-1.3 Metso

-0.9 Yara International

-0.7 Hakon Invest

-1.7

Small caps Denmark Gainers

% Finland

Vordingborg Bank

27.2 Lannen Tehtaat

DKTI

14.5 Ponsse

DK Company

Laggards

% Norway

% Sweden

4.4 Comrod Communication

8.8 BioTie Therapies

22.4 Allenex

% 13.5

3.0 Petrolia SE

22.3 Electra Gruppen

5.7

2.4 Fara

16.7 Lammhults Design Group

4.2

SSBV-Rovsing

8.0 Scanfil

2.3 Spectrum

11.1 Nobia

3.6

FirstFarms

5.5 PKC Group

2.1 Sevan Marine

10.2 Midway Holding (Class B)

2.7

Vestjysk Bank

-10.0 Tiimari

-12.5 Northland Resources S.A. -18.9 PA Resources

-11.1

Lastas

-8.9 Finnlines

-6.1 Domstein

NeuroSearch (Ordinary)

-4.9 Tecnotree OYJ

-5.6 Rocksource

KlimaInvest

-4.9 Ixonos

-5.4 Hafslund Asa 'A' Nok1 (Cla -5.7 OEM-International

-5.6

Totalbanken

-4.2 Neo Industrial

-4.2 Avocet Mining PLC (GB Li

-5.4

-10.6 Concentric -5.9 Arcam

-5.9 -5.6

-5.0 Aerocrine

Most active (local curr. Millions) Denmark Victor International

Finland 50.2

Norway

Sweden

Lannen Tehtaat

3.9

Petrolia SE

39.3

Allenex

14.3

Dantherm

8.8

Etteplan

2.8

Protector Forsikring

29.1

Dios Fastigheter

7.2

Gyldendal Ser'A'Dkk20 (Ord

8.1

Citycon

2.4

GoodTech

19.0

Arcam

6.7

Investeringsselskabet Luxor

5.4

BioTie Therapies

2.4

Fara

15.1

Electra Gruppen

6.6

KlimaInvest

4.3

Scanfil

2.3

PhotoCure

12.4

Lammhults Design Group

6.5

Ossur hf.

4.3

Sievi Capital

2.3

EOC

9.9

Image Systems

5.1

100.5

Addnode Group

12M New highs Denmark Alm. Brand Ambu

Finland 18.0 178.0

Citycon Huhtamaki

Atlantic Airways

134.0

Revenio Group

Atlantic Airways (IS Listing)

135.0

Sampo A

BankNordik P/F

Norway 2.50 14.84 0.62 28.59

94.5

Cermaq

Sweden

Gjensidige Forsikring

92.3

Prosafe SE

57.8

Aker Biomarine Austevoll Seafood

1.4 36.5

Addtech

44.0 215.0

AF

186.5

Assa Abloy B

258.2

Biotage

9.1

12M New lows Denmark Dantax

Finland 96.5

Salling Bank

146.0

Sparekassen Himmerland

101.5

Norway

Sweden

CapMan

0.81

Avocet Mining PLC (GB List

1.7

ACAP Invest A

15.0

ILKKA-YHTYMA OYJ (Class

5.52

Avocet Mining PLC

1.8

BlackPearl Resources Inc.

15.1

Talentum

1.11

I.M. Skaugen SE

Tiimari

0.07

InterOil Exploration & Produ

2.8

Midway Holding A

Panoro Energy

2.4

Opcon

15.2

Image Systems

0.3 16.0 0.4

Source: Thomson Financials

4 March 2013

Nordic Morning Wrap 4

Calendar Corporate Monday 4 Mar

Tuesday 5 Mar

Thursday 7 Mar

Wednesday 6 Mar

Friday 8 Mar

Hsbc Holdings

Elekta (07:30)

Millicom CMD (08:15)

Royal Unibrew (08:00)

SAS (08:00)

Kuehne & Nagel

Topdanmark (12:00)

Nordea CMD (10:00)

Systemair (08:00)

Atlantia Spa

Pko Bank Polski

Bank Of Nova Scotia

Brown-Forman

Amer Sports AGM (08:45)

Canadian Natural Resources

Transocean

Beiersdorf

Henkel Ag

Opera Software CMD (08:00) Carnival Corp

Deutsche Post

Legal & General Group

Wartsila AGM (08:00)

First Quantum Minerals

Staples

Adidas

Rwe Ag

Aggreko

Severstal

Aviva

Standard Chartered

Carrefour

Cooper Industries

Continental Ag Kroger Linde Ag Lukoil Merck Kgaa Novatek Telecom Italia

Roadshows/Seminars Monday 4 Mar Pandora

Tuesday 5 Mar

Stockholm Kesko

Wednesday 6 Mar

Frankfurt Jyske Bank

Thursday 7 Mar

Edinburgh None

Friday 8 Mar Kinnevik

Helsinki

Macro Monday 4 Mar EZ PPI y-o-y (Jan) e 1.7% (2.2%)

Tuesday 5 Mar US ISM Non-Manufacturing (Feb) e 55.0 (55.2) EZ Retail Sales y-o-y wda (Jan) e -2.9% (-3.6%) CN HSBC Services PMI (Feb) (54.0)

Wednesday 6 Mar US Factory Orders m-o-m (Jan) e -2.2% (1.8%), Fed's Beige Book EZ GDP y-o-y prel (Q4) e -0.9% (-0.9%) UK New Car Registrations y-o-y (Feb) (11.5%)

Thursday 7 Mar US Initial Jobless Claims e 355.0k (344.0k), Continuing Claims (3074k), Trade Balance (Jan) e USD -43.0bn (USD -38.5bn) EZ ECB Releases Interest Rate e 0.8% (0.8%) GE Manufacturing Orders y-o-y nsa wda (Jan) e 1.8% (-1.8%) JP Leading Index prel (Jan) e 96.1 (93.4)

Friday 8 Mar US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb) e 151k (157k), Unemployment Rate sa (Feb) e 7.9% (7.9%), Wholesale Inventories m-o-m (Jan) e 0.3% (-0.1%) GE Industrial Production y-o-y nsa wda (Jan) e -1.2% (-1.1%) SW Industrial Production y-o-y wda (Jan) (-2.2%) CN Trade Balance (Feb) e USD -8.85bn (USD 29.15bn), Exports y-o-y (Feb) e 7.6% (25.0%), Imports y-o-y (Feb) e -8.2% (28.8%) JP GDP q-o-q final (Q4) (-0.1%), Trade Balance (Jan) e JPY -1512.3bn (JPY -567.6bn)

Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets

4 March 2013

Nordic Morning Wrap 5

Estimate changes

Food Products, Denmark

HCM vs. consensus

What has changed

Chr. Hansen

EURm

Clinical studies put on hold •

HCM Q2 12/13e

Company Update

Mar 4, 2013

Disappointing results from another study

•

EUR 8m impairment charge

•

REDUCE and target price of DKK 180 reiterated

Gastrointestinal health study failed Chr. Hansen has been running two studies on the possible beneficial effect on gastrointestinal health from probiotics. Preliminary results analysis of the studies show that primary end points have not been met and Chr. Hansen views the data as insufficient for approval of an EU health claim.

2012/13e EPS cut 3% On the back of the disappointing results, Chr. Hansen is taking an EUR 8m impairment charge of capitalized development expenditure. This means, that there are no large studies left on Chr. Hansen’s balance sheet, and furthermore, no large clinical studies are in the pipeline. We lower our 2012/13e EBIT by 4%, and lower EPS by 3%, as the impairment triggers a higher tax credit.

chg HCM (%) 12/13e

chg HCM (%) 13/14e

chg (%)

The impairment has no cash flow impact and is therefore neutral for valuation. We have not been including any particular sales growth to come from the study, and view the news as more of lost potential upside. The underlying business is still performing strongly, but for valuation reasons, we remain cautious on the share and maintain our REDUCE recommendation.

182

0

760

0

830

0

Sales

181

0

762

0

830

EBITDA adj

59.9

0

264

0

291

0

EBITDA adj

61.0

-2

261

1

286

2

margin (%)

32.9

0

34.7

0

35.1

0

margin (%)

33.7

-1

34.3

0

34.5

1

0

EBIT adj

40.5

-16

209

-4

241

0

EBIT adj

48.0

-16

212

-1

234

3

margin (%)

22.3

-16

27.5

-4

29.0

0

margin

26.5

-4

27.8

0

28.2

1

EBT

37.7

-17

197.4

-4

231.4

0

EBT

45.0

-16

201

-2

227

2

Net income

27.8

-16

144.9

-3

167.7

0

Net income

33.0

-16

146.0

-1

162.0

4

206.5

EPS

0.21

-16

1.09

-3

1.27

0

EPS

0.25

-16

1.09

0

1.24

2

Mkt cap (EURm):

3,644

EPS adj

0.21

-16

1.09

-3

1.27

0

EPS adj

0.25

-16

1.09

0

1.24

2

Mkt cap (DKKm):

27,175

No of shares (m):

131.6

Est. buybacks next 12m (% of MC):

n.m

Free float (%):

74

Avg daily volume (000'):

314

Avg daily value (EURm):

Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets

Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets & Reuters

Adjusted EPS estimate revisions – 13/14

Adjusted EPS estimate revisions – 12/13 EUR 1.13

EUR

9 CHR DC

Bloomberg: Reuters: Web address: IR web address: Next event:

CHRH.CO Link to company website Link to IR website Apr 11, 2013: Q2 report

1.27 1.11 1.24 1.09 1.21 1.07 1.18

1.05

12m target return Target price, inc. div. (DKK):

180

Expected total return (%):

1.03

-12.8

Expected total dividend yield (%):

2.0

DCF Value (DKK):

166

Balance sheet 2012

Mar 12

Apr May 12 12

Jun 12

Jul 12

Aug Sep Oct 12 12 12

HCM

Nov Dec 12 12

Jan 13

1.15

Feb Ma 13 13

55.1

ROE (%):

20.0

ROIC (%):

20.6

Capital RMC

26

26

8

8

Jun 12

Jul 12

Aug Sep Oct 12 12 12

HCM

Nov Dec 12 12

Jan 13

Feb Ma 13 13

Consensus median estimate

Divisional split (11/12) % of total sales

% of total sales

50

80

40

Votes (%) Capital (%)

Apr May 12 12

Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets & Reuters

363.9

Net debt/equity (%):

Mar 12

Consensus median estimate

Geographical revenue split (11/12)

Net debt (EURm):

Novo A/S

Company page on Handelsbanken’s REON

Cons diff 13/14e (%)

Share price (DKK):

Main owners

Casper Blom, +45 46 79 12 95, [email protected]

Cons diff 12/13e (%)

Sales

Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets & Reuters

No real valuation impact

Cons diff Q2 12/13e (%)

EURm

60

30 40

20 20

EURm (FYE: 31/08)

09/10

10/11

11/12

12/13e

13/14e

Sales

552

636

699

760

830

Sales growth (%)

7.9

15.2

9.9

8.8

9.2

181.9

201.7

235.5

263.8

291.0

EBITDA adj margin (%) EBIT adj

33.0

31.7

33.7

34.7

35.1

139.8

159.2

185.0

209.3

241.0

margin (%)

25.3

25.0

26.5

27.5

29.0

EBT

48.6

148.3

172.3

197.4

231.4

EPS reported (EUR)

0.13

0.85

0.95

1.09

1.27

EPS adj (EUR)

0.11

0.82

0.97

1.09

1.27

Y-o-y growth (%)

n.m

637

18

12

16

-

-

-

-3

0

EPS adj revisions (%) P/E adj (x)

>99

19.3

24.4

25.4

21.8

P/BV (x)

3.45

3.35

4.81

5.1

4.46

4.1

18.2

20.0

21.1

21.8

ROE adj (%)

10

Absolute and relative performance

130

110

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

Chr. Hansen

Novo A/S

15.7

19.0

19.0

16.2

12.4

14.9

15.1

13.4

4.3

3.9

5.0

5.2

4.7

%

Cultures & Enzymes

Latin America

D

J

90

F

rel. DJ Stoxx 600

-3m

-12m

Absolute:

3

13

50

Absolute EUR:

3

13

49

6

7

3.2

4.9

3.6

3.4

3.8

Tot DPS (DKK)

0.64

3.58

2.91

4.07

4.73

Tot Div yield (%)

0.63

3.0

1.6

2.0

2.3

Relative DJStoxx:

Net debt/equity (%)

87.0

53.9

55.1

43.8

30.5

52w range (DKK):

Source: Reuters

39 208 / 136

Health & Nutrition

Investment case summary Votes (%)

Capital (%)

25.7

25.7

8.0

8.0 0

Number of B-shares

138,034,220

Total

138,034,220

Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets

-1m

Natural Colors

Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets

Number of A-shares

Free float

16.8

APAC

Ownership structure

Capital RMC

144

12.9

Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets

North America

11 January 2012

164

124

Western Europe

Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets

184

EV/EBIT (x)

FCF adj yield (%)

Index 150

204

EV/EBITDA (x) EV/sales (x)

0

0 DKK

74%

Strong long-term megatrends Consumer demand for healthy and increasingly naturally sourced foods is expected to continue for many years. Solid balance sheet Debt has come down considerably since the listing in 2010, and the stock can increasingly be seen as a dividend case. EFSA continues taking attention The EFSA process on food claims continues to take attention, as it slows growth in the sale of probiotic cultures. Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets

News-driven comment

Healthcare Equipment, Sweden

HCM vs. consensus

What has changed

Elekta

HCM Q3 12/13e

SEKm

Versa HD – High-dose rate (FFF) LINAC + Agility MLC

10,217

0

10,888

0

Sales

0

2,152

0

2,303

0

EBIT adj

22.4

0

21.1

0

21.1

0

margin

536

0

1,941

0

2,104

0

EBT

Net income

392

0

1,414

0

1,540

0

EPS

1.02

0

3.68

0

4.01

0

•

Most modern LINAC on the market but no wow factor

EPS adj

1.05

0

3.78

0

4.11

0

•

EBT

Mar 4, 2013

Share price (SEK):

Get expert opinion in Handelsbanken conference call

97

Mkt cap (EURm):

4,373

Mkt cap (SEKm):

36,938

Versa HD – Elekta’s first FFF LINAC

No of shares (m):

380.8

As expected, Elekta unveiled a high-end FFF LINAC at an event in Atlanta. The timing was off-cycle compared to traditional launches (i.e. ASTRO in the autumn) and our information suggests the launch initially was planned for 2012. We expect Versa HD (no upgrades) to be priced at a premium to other Elekta LINACs but in line with Varian’s TrueBeam at launch, i.e. ~USD 3m.

Est. buybacks next 12m (% of MC):

Versa HD – an upgraded Infinity LINAC, not a new platform Key enhancements in Versa HD vs. Elekta’s previous LINACs are that it has a dose rate of 2,200 MU/min (Varian TrueBeam from 2010 has 2,400) and that the Agility MLC (which was introduced by Elekta in July 2011) comes as standard. Consequently, we see a risk that investors who were waiting for something revolutionary will be disappointed, particularly in the light of the 3.5% share price gain on the teaser for the Versa HD launch event.

Free float (%):

Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets

Cons diff 12/13e (%)

Cons diff 13/14e (%)

2,715

-3

10,430

-2

11,614

-6

646

-9

2,157

0

2,500

-8

23.8

-1

20.7

0

21.5

0

630

-15

2,003

-3

2,448

-14

Net income

451

-13

1,462

-3

1,800

-14

EPS

1.14

-10

3.73

-1

4.53

-11

EPS adj

1.18

-11

3.85

-2

4.59

-10

Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets & Reuters

Adjusted EPS estimate revisions – 13/14

Adjusted EPS estimate revisions – 12/13 SEK

SEK

93

Avg daily volume (000'):

1,854

Avg daily value (EURm):

21

Bloomberg:

EKTAB SS

Reuters: Web address: IR web address: Next event:

EKTAb.ST Link to company website Link to IR website Mar 5, 2013: Q3 report

4.30

Target price, inc. div. (SEK):

90.0

Expected total return (%):

-7.2

Expected total dividend yield (%):

-2.6

DCF Value (SEK):

72.1

Balance sheet 2012

We have invited an industry expert from Yale School of Medicine (Assistant Professor of Therapeutic Radiology) to comment on new products in the field of radiation therapy equipment. An invitation and call-in details can be obtained by contacting [email protected]. The call is scheduled for March 4 at 15.00 CET. Prior to this, we are arranging a call with a senior representative from Elekta, who will present Versa HD.

Net debt (SEKm):

4.9

4.10

4.6

3.90

4.3

3.70

12m target return

Expert to comment on LINAC in Handelsbanken conf call

Mar 12

Apr May 12 12

Jun Jul 12 Aug Sep 12 12 12

Oct 12

Nov Dec 12 12

Jan 13

4.0

Feb 13

2,559

Net debt/equity (%):

51.1

ROE (%):

27.8

ROIC (%):

38.2

Mar 12

Apr May 12 12

Consensus median estimate

HCM

Jun Jul 12 Aug 12 12

HCM

Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets & Reuters

Sep 12

Oct 12

Nov Dec 12 12

Jan 13

Feb 13

Consensus median estimate

Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets & Reuters

Divisional split (11/12)

Geographical revenue split (11/12)

% of total sales

% of total sales

40

60

30 40

20

Main owners

Votes (%) Capital (%)

Leksell Laurent Swedbank Robur

Hans Mähler, +46 8 70 18155, [email protected]

n.m

Cons diff Q3 12/13e (%)

SEKm

0

margin (%)

Company Update

chg (%)

589

EBIT adj

•

chg HCM (%) 13/14e

2,631

Sales

Levels the competitive playing field with Versa

chg HCM (%) 12/13e

30

7

4

6

20

10

Company page on Handelsbanken’s REON 0

SEKm (FYE: 30/04)

10/11

11/12

12/13e

13/14e

14/15e

7,904

9,048

10,217

10,888

11,974

Sales growth (%)

6.9

14.5

12.9

6.6

10.0

Gross margin (%)

46.4

46.6

46.7

46.7

47.9

1,502

1,837

2,152

2,303

2,688

19.0

20.3

21.1

21.1

22.4

1,464

1,708

1,941

2,104

2,535

2.73

3.23

3.68

4.01

4.83

Sales

EBIT adj margin (%) EBT EPS reported (SEK) EPS adj (SEK) Y-o-y growth (%) P/E adj (x) P/BV (x)

2.73

3.20

3.78

4.11

4.83

21

17

18

9

17

25.2

26.7

25.7

23.6

20.1

SEK

115 82

72

6.5

6.3

5.3

4.45

27.5

26.5

24.4

24.1

EV/EBIT (x)

16.9

18.8

18.1

16.6

13.9

EV/sales (x)

3.2

3.8

3.8

3.5

3.1

%

Tot Div yield (%) Net debt/equity (%)

Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets

2.9

1.6

3.3

2.9

3.6

1.25

1.20

1.30

1.60

Western Europe

APAC

Latin America

105

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

Elekta

D

J

F

95

rel. DJ Stoxx 600

-1m

-3m

-12m

Absolute:

0

1

25

Absolute EUR:

2

3

31

5

-3

1.5

1.5

1.2

1.3

1.6

Relative DJStoxx:

-12.4

51.1

30.6

17.0

4.1

52w range (SEK):

Source: Reuters

22 105 / 76.3

Nordics

Eastern Europe

0

MEA

Oncology

Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets

Capital (%)

30.2

6.6

Swedbank Robur

4.2

5.7

Fidelity

3.0

4.0

Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency

2.3

3.1

SEB funds

1.9

2.5

Number of A-shares

14,250,000

Number of B-shares

368,556,680

Total

382,806,680

Free float

Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets

Neuro (excl Axesse)

Brachyther

Investment case summary Votes (%)

Leksell Laurent

Software

Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets

Ownership structure 30 December 2011

92

6.9

1.00

135 125

29.1

Tot DPS (SEK)

Index

102

ROE adj (%)

FCF adj yield (%)

North America

Absolute and relative performance

93%

Leading position in structural growth market Elekta is a leading provider of equipment and software for radiation treatment. Growth is driven by lack of capacity in emerging markets and replacement of old equipment in established markets. US and European concerns Increased reimbursement woes in the US and weakness in Southern Europe likely to hurt new orders Relative valuation at highs Significant valuation premium unsustainable Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets

vs

main

peer

Varian

Recommendation downgrade

Pharmaceuticals, Denmark

HCM vs. consensus

What has changed

Lundbeck

HCM Q1 13e

chg (%)

HCM 2013e

chg (%)

HCM 2014e

chg (%)

3,316

0

14,492

0

13,670

0

Sales

-

n.m

14,491

0

-

n.m

499

-10

1,614

0

790

0

EBIT adj

-

n.m

2,155

-25

-

n.m

15.0

-10

11.1

0

5.8

0

margin

-

-

14.9

-4

-

-

487

-10

1,566

0

738

0

EBT

-

n.m

2,097

-25

-

n.m

Net income

346

-19

1,112

0

524

0

Net income

-

n.m

1,540

-28

-

n.m

EPS

1.76

-19

5.7

0

2.67

0

EPS

-

n.m

7.9

-28

-

n.m

EPS adj

1.76

-19

5.7

0

2.67

0

DKKm Sales EBIT adj margin (%)

Fully priced for now • • •

EBT

Company Update

Mar 4, 2013

Target price increased to DKK 100 (99) Share appears fully valued for now; down to REDUCE (Acc.) Potential for renewed interest around Alzheimer’s data in July

Abilify Maintena approval adds DKK 1 to target price Following the expected US approval of Abilify Maintena last week we increase our launch probability from 95% to 100%, which, as we stated in our report last week, adds DKK 1 to our target price which we increase from DKK 99 to DKK 100, leaving only modest upside.

Brintellix approval will only add DKK 5 per share While positive high-dose Brintellix data might encourage the market, we see limited upside to our current Brintellix estimates and a US approval on October 2 will only add DKK 5 to our target price. We therefore see few triggers for the share until the release of phase 2 data for the Alzheimer’s drug LU-58054 at the AAIC meeting running from July 13-18.

Target price increased to DKK 100 (99); REDUCE (Acc.) Given the limited upside to our target price, the fact that APA data is more or less fully discounted in our numbers and that the share is trading at a 2014e P/E of 36x, we see little upside and therefore lower our recommendation to REDUCE (Accumulate). We have yet to include LU-58054 in our numbers but believe that is prudent given the very limited insight into that compound. The share could see renewed interest around the phase 2 data release in July.

Share price (DKK):

99.95

Mkt cap (EURm):

2,630

Mkt cap (DKKm):

19,602

No of shares (m):

196.1

Est. buybacks next 12m (% of MC): Free float (%):

276

Avg daily value (EURm):

Cons diff 2014e (%)

Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets & Lundbeck

Adjusted EPS estimate revisions – 2014

Adjusted EPS estimate revisions – 2013 DKK 9.0

DKK

4

8.0 8.0

LUN DC

Bloomberg: Reuters: Web address: IR web address: Next event:

LUN.CO Link to company website Link to IR website Mar 21, 2013: AGM

6.0 7.0

Target price, inc. div. (DKK):

100

Expected total return (%):

0.05

Expected total dividend yield (%):

2.0

DCF Value (DKK):

139

4.0

6.0

5.0

12m target return

Mar 12

Apr May 12 12

Jun 12

Jul 12

Aug Sep 12 12

HCM

Oct 12

Nov Dec 12 12

Jan 13

2.0

Feb Mar 13 13

Net debt (DKKm):

-1,893

Net debt/equity (%):

8.5

ROIC (%):

20.1

Votes (%) Capital (%) 70

Apr May 12 12

Jun 12

Jul 12

Aug Sep 12 12

HCM

Oct 12

Nov Dec 12 12

Jan 13

Feb Mar 13 13

Consensus median estimate

Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets & Reuters

Divisional split (2012)

Geographical revenue split (2012)

% of total sales

50

80

-14.3

ROE (%):

Mar 12

Consensus median estimate

Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets & Reuters

% of total sales

Balance sheet 2012

LFI (Lundbeck Foundation)

Company page on Handelsbanken’s REON

Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets

Cons diff 2013e (%)

32

Avg daily volume (000'):

Main owners

Peter Sehested, +45 46 79 16 18, [email protected]

0

Cons diff Q1 13e (%)

DKKm

40

60 30

40

20

70 10

20

0

DKKm Net sales

2010

2011

2012

2013e

14,765

16,007

14,802

14,492

Sales growth (%)

7.4

8.4

-7.5

-2.1

-5.7

Gross margin (%)

80.0

80.2

77.5

75.6

73.4

3,357

3,734

1,647

1,614

790

22.7

23.3

11.1

11.1

5.8

3,289

3,297

1,582

1,566

738

EPS reported (DKK)

12.6

11.6

5.6

5.7

2.67

EPS adj (DKK)

EBIT adj margin (%) EBT

13,670

12.6

13.4

5.6

5.7

2.67

Y-o-y growth (%)

21

6

-58

0

-53

P/E adj (x)

8.4

8.1

14.7

17.6

37.4

P/BV (x)

1.87

1.66

1.23

1.41

ROE adj (%)

24.8

22.0

8.5

8.2

1.39 3.7

EV/EBIT (x)

6.1

5.1

8.7

11.4

24.2

Western Europe Eastern Europe North America

Absolute and relative performance DKK

Index

150 120

100

80

90 70

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

Lundbeck

D

J

F

M

1.4

1.2

0.97

1.3

1.4

-1m

-3m

11.3

3.0

-1.7

-1.6

Absolute:

12

4

-14

Tot DPS (DKK)

3.14

3.49

2.00

1.98

0.94

Absolute EUR:

12

4

-14

Tot Div yield (%)

3.0

3.2

2.4

2.0

0.94

Relative DJStoxx:

14

0

-19

-2.6

-15.8

-14.3

-8.4

-3.3

52w range (DKK):

Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets

Source: Reuters

Other Pharmaceut

Azilect

Xenazine

Remaining 3

Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets

Investment case summary Votes (%)

Capital (%)

70.0

70.0

Number of A-shares

0

Number of B-shares

201,649,000

Total

201,649,000

Free float

Ebixa

32%

A less binary case Following the recent EU recommendation for approval of Selincro and the acceptance of filing for LU21004 in the US, regulatory risk has decline for Lundbeck. However, commercial risks still persist. Risk overhang to be removed The profit warning in December 2012 exposed the company's dependence on the pipeline and dealt a blow to confidence.

rel. DJ Stoxx 600

11.8

Net debt/equity (%)

%

N

60

Nordics

Ownership structure LFI (Lundbeck Foundation)

110

Latin America

Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets

130

FCF adj yield (%)

EV/sales (x)

Cipralex

0

2014e

We still apply a health 50% risk adjustment To restore confidence the market will need to see Selincro sales and strong phase 3 data on LU21004. This is expected in May 2013. Until then the share will be range bound.

-12m

128 / 81.7

Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets

Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets

Estimate changes

Oil & Gas Drilling, Norway

P&L outcome – Q4

North Atlantic Drilling

USDm

Encouraging harsh environment market •

Sales

Downtime drags utilisation down to 94% Results Comment Q4 2012

Mar 4, 2013

Some downtime continued in Q4

•

Harsh environment market to remain solid

•

Cut in estimates due to lower utilisation – BUY reiterated

Share price (NOK):

Q4 2012 burdened by downtime NADL delivered Q4 2012 revenues of USD 283m (235m in Q4 2011) with EBIT of USD 98m (99m), in line with consensus. The utilisation rate was 94%. The company declared a dividend of USD 0.225/share, in line with Q3 2012. We cut our estimates as we now assumed somewhat lower utilisation and somewhat higher G&A costs than we previously expected.

Harsh environment is still the place to be Norway has seen very high interest in the Barents Sea, which should continue to drive demand for more modern harsh environment units. The UK shelf has also picked up, as marginal fields have become economical given the high oil price. There could also be interesting opportunities in Canada and Russia, putting pressure on an already-tight supply/demand situation.

56.89

Mkt cap (EURm):

1,746

Mkt cap (NOKm):

13,085

No of shares (m):

230.0

Est. buybacks next 12m (% of MC):

25

Avg daily volume (000'):

49

Avg daily value (EURm):

0

Bloomberg:

With a solid backlog of USD 4.2bn and a good position to take advantage of the tight market through West Navigator becoming available in June 2014, we find NADL to be in a good competitive position. We also expect the company to grow through newbuilds ahead, and the listing in the US is expected in Q2 2013. We therefore reiterate our BUY recommendation with a NOK 70 per share target price.

2010

Target price, inc. div. (NOK):

70.0

Expected total return (%):

23.0

Expected total dividend yield (%):

9.1

DCF Value (NOK):

78.0

Balance sheet 2012

2011

2012

2013e

2014e

743

901

1,045

1,159

1,250

n.m

21.2

16.0

10.9

7.9

EBIT adj

319

421

404

401

445

42.9

46.7

38.7

34.6

35.6

EBT

219

281

291

312

342

EPS reported (USD)

0.84

1.09

1.06

1.19

1.31

EPS adj (USD)

0.84

1.34

1.18

1.19

1.31

Y-o-y growth (%)

n.m

60

-12

1

10

-

-

-

-

EBT

78.5

9.8

6.2

-16.0

3.3

Net income

49.7

-24.7

-23.7

-39.8

-26.9

EPS reported

0.07

-74.9

-74.6

-81.2

-71.2

EPS adj

0.07

-77.1

-78.9

-81.2

-71.2

EBIT adj Y-o-y EBIT adj margin

Q1 12

Q2 12

Q3 12

Q4 12

Q1 13e

22.6

14.7

7.7

20.5

23.0

-15.0

1.5

-1.3

-1.5

14.0

37.0

42.8

40.6

34.4

34.3

EPS adj (USD)

0.22

0.36

0.34

0.07

0.29

EPS adj Y-o-y

-26.7

-0.83

-4.3

-77.1

31.7

Source: Company accounts, Handelsbanken Capital Markets

USDm Sales EBIT adj

HCM Q1 13e

HCM vs. consensus chg (%)

HCM 2013e

chg (%)

HCM 2014e

287

12

98

-10

34.3

chg (%)

1,159

12

1,250

11

Sales

253

13

1,000

16

1,103

401

-12

445

-10

EBIT adj

105

-6

390

3

433

3

-20

34.6

-21

35.6

-19

margin

41.5

-7

39.0

-4

39.3

-4

USDm

Cons diff Q1 13e (%)

Cons diff 2013e (%)

Cons diff 2014e (%) 13

EBT

76

-14

312

-16

342

-15

EBT

83

-8

301

4

329

4

Net income

67

-14

275

-15

301

-14

Net income

72

-7

265

4

293

3

EPS

0.29

-14

1.19

-15

1.31

-14

EPS

0.31

-6

1.16

3

1.27

3

Net debt/equity (%):

279.0

EPS adj

0.29

-14

1.19

-15

1.31

-14

EPS adj

0.31

-6

1.16

3

1.27

3

ROE (%):

34.6

ROIC (%):

13.4

Main owners

Votes (%) Capital (%) 73

73

4

4

Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets

Ownership structure

NOK

57 53

92

Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets

86

49

-

-

-15

-14

9.0

8.3

7.6

P/BV (x)

n.m

3.61

2.91

2.57

2.50

ROE adj (%)

n.m

52.4

38.4

31.7

33.4

EV/EBIT (x)

n.m

10.0

11.9

12.5

11.0

EV/sales (x)

n.m

4.7

4.6

4.3

3.9

FCFE adj yield (%)

n.m

22.3

3.2

-6.5

16.9

0

16.5

5.2

5.7

6.9

Tot Div yield (%)

n.m

36.4

8.4

10.1

12.1

Relative DJStoxx:

Net debt/equity (%)

332

442

279

307

287

52w range (NOK):

45

80

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

NATDF.PK

%

D

J

74

F

rel. DJ Stoxx 600

-1m

-3m

-12m

Absolute:

-1

-2

-7

Absolute EUR:

-1

-4

-7

1

-9

-13

Source: Reuters

Pure exposure to harsh environment NADL is the only rig company in the world with a pure exposure to Norway and harsh environments

98

61

6.2

Investment case summary

Spending growth to continue Recent spending forecasts indicate continued high spending growth in Norway the coming years triggered by the Barents Sea.

Index

-

Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets & Reuters

Lack of rigs The Norwegian market is among the tightest market in the world, with a lack of drilling rigs and no rigs available until mid-2014

Absolute and relative performance

n.m

Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets

34.4

2,355

P/E adj (x)

Tot DPS (NOK)

-1.6

margin (%)

Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets

Sales

EPS adj revisions (%)

12.9

-13.5

Net debt (USDm):

Euroclear Bank

Sales growth (%) margin (%)

9.1

-8.2

What has changed

12m target return

Company page on Handelsbanken’s REON

USDm

8.3

-1.5

%

NATDF.PK Link to company website Link to IR website May 31, 2013: Q1 report

Seadrill

Knut Erik Løvstad, +47 22 39 72 21, [email protected] Daniel Råvik, +47 22 39 73 23, [email protected]

20.5

97.4

Sales y-o-y

margin (%)

Listing expected Q2 2013

283.3

EBIT adj

Trend analysis

NADL NO

Reuters: Web address: IR web address: Next event:

Deviation % HCM Cons

Source: Company accounts, Handelsbanken Capital Markets, Reuters

n.m

Free float (%):

Growth % Y-o-y Q-o-q

Actual

62.0 / 44.7

Target price change

Pharmaceuticals, Denmark

What has changed

Novo Nordisk

DKKm

chg (%)

HCM 2013e

chg (%)

HCM 2014e

chg (%)

19,478

0

84,464

0

91,649

0

Sales

-

n.m

85,072

-1

93,192

-2

7,221

0

30,588

0

34,048

0

EBIT adj

-

n.m

31,650

-3

35,416

-4 -1

Sales EBIT adj

•

Company Update

Mar 4, 2013

First obesity data just around the corner

•

Potentially confirming liraglutide’s ‘diabesity’ targeting profile

•

Obesity potential yet to be included in our numbers - BUY

997.5

Share price (DKK):

Three much-anticipated studies During 2013, Novo Nordisk will report highly-anticipated data from three phase III studies with liraglutide (Victoza) 3mg in obesity-related disorders. Data from the first two trials should come in H1, whereas results from the third trial are not expected until the latter part of the year. In this note, we preview what investors should look for in the two upcoming data releases.

Data needs to tick a number of boxes To justify the expected high cost (around USD 9,000 at time of approval) and ease access to reimbursement, as well as to overcome aversion to injectable drugs, liraglutide has to meet a number of criteria. It must be able to induce a competitive, clinically-relevant weight loss and to show positive effects on metabolic parameters, as well as being able to reduce the onset of diabetes. We list the relevant benchmark parameters inside the report.

Mkt cap (EURm):

73,125

Mkt cap (DKKm):

545,300

No of shares (m):

546.7

Est. buybacks next 12m (% of MC):

2

Free float (%):

677

Avg daily value (EURm):

Cons diff 2014e (%)

37.1

0

36.2

0

37.2

0

margin

-

-

37.2

-1

38.0

7,582

0

32,029

0

34,409

0

EBT

-

n.m

31,576

1

35,451

-3

Net income

5,838

0

24,663

0

26,495

0

Net income

-

n.m

24,336

1

27,319

-3

EPS

10.7

0

46.0

0

50.6

0

EPS

-

n.m

45.2

2

52.1

-3

EPS adj

10.7

0

46.0

0

50.6

0

EPS adj

-

n.m

45.2

2

52.1

-3

Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets

Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets & Bloomberg

Adjusted EPS estimate revisions – 2014

Adjusted EPS estimate revisions – 2013 DKK 49.0

DKK

91

53.0 47.0

NOVOB DC

Bloomberg: Reuters: Web address: IR web address: Next event:

NOVOb.CO Link to company website Link to IR website Mar 20, 2013: AGM

51.0 45.0

Target price, inc. div. (DKK):

1,112

Expected total return (%):

49.0

43.0

41.0

12m target return

Mar 12

Apr May 12 12

Expected total dividend yield (%):

1.6

DCF Value (DKK):

1,163

Jun 12

Jul 12

Aug Sep Oct 12 12 12

HCM

11.5

Nov Dec 12 12

Jan 13

Feb Ma 13 13

-17,877

Net debt/equity (%):

55.2

ROIC (%):

136.5

Main owners

Votes (%) Capital (%)

Novo A/S

71

Mar 12

Apr May 12 12

Jun 12

Jul 12

Aug Sep Oct 12 12 12

HCM

Nov Dec 12 12

Jan 13

Feb Ma 13 13

Consensus median estimate

Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets & Reuters

Divisional split (2012)

Geographical revenue split (2012)

% of total sales

100

40

-44.4

ROE (%):

47.0

Consensus median estimate

Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets & Reuters

% of total sales

Net debt (DKKm):

We have yet to include the potential of liraglutide in obesity in our model. This potential is substantial and we have recently suggested that DKK 17bn in peak sales would be a conservative estimate. We will in particular look for signs of a diabetes-delaying effect. If this materialises after 52 weeks with a clean safety profile, upcoming data could be a significant share price trigger. We raise our target price to DKK 1,112 (1,099) on time value effects. BUY

Cons diff 2013e (%)

74

Avg daily volume (000'):

Balance sheet 2012

Target price up to DKK 1,112 (1,099) on time value

Cons diff Q1 13e (%)

DKKm

EBT

margin (%)

What to look for in obesity data

HCM vs. consensus

HCM Q1 13e

80

30 60

20

40

26 20

10

Peter Sehested, +45 46 79 16 18, [email protected] Company page on Handelsbanken’s REON

0 Diabetes Care

0 North America Western Europe

DKKm Sales

2010

2011

2012

2013e

2014e

60,776

66,346

78,026

84,464

91,649

Sales growth (%)

19.0

9.2

17.6

8.3

8.5

Gross margin (%)

80.8

81.0

82.7

82.4

82.8

18,891

22,374

29,474

30,588

34,048

31.1

33.7

37.8

36.2

37.2

EBIT adj margin (%) EBT

18,286

21,925

27,811

32,029

34,409

EPS reported (DKK)

25.1

30.3

39.3

46.0

50.6

EPS adj (DKK)

25.1

30.3

39.0

46.0

50.6

40

21

29

18

10

25.0

21.8

23.5

21.7

19.7

9.7

9.9

12.5

12.6

11.8

Y-o-y growth (%) P/E adj (x) P/BV (x)

Nordics

Index

1,071

135

991

125

911

115

Novo A/S

831 751

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

Novo Nordisk

N

D

J

55.2

59.7

61.2

EV/EBIT (x)

18.4

15.8

16.4

16.8

14.7

EV/sales (x)

5.7

5.3

6.2

6.1

5.5

%

-1m

-3m

-12m

FCF adj yield (%)

4.4

4.9

3.7

4.4

4.8

Absolute:

-1

9

25

Tot DPS (DKK)

10.3

12.4

15.8

18.5

20.3

Absolute EUR:

-1

9

24

Tot Div yield (%)

1.6

1.9

1.7

1.9

2.0

Relative DJStoxx:

1

3

-36.6

-43.9

-44.4

-44.4

-43.6

52w range (DKK):

Source: Reuters

16 1,070 / 773

26.0

464,513,000

Total

572,000,000

Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets

46.0

71.0

Number of B-shares

95

F

rel. DJ Stoxx 600

Capital (%) 107,487,000

105

Human Growth Hormone

HRT

Other revenues

Investment case summary Votes (%)

Number of A-shares

Free float

NovoSeven

Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets

Ownership structure

DKK

39.6

Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets

Eastern Europe

Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets

Absolute and relative performance

ROE adj (%)

Net debt/equity (%)

APAC

74%

Unparalleled growth stability Novo Nordisk has exposure to unparalleled fundamentals due to its leading market position with the treatment of diabetes. Margin expansion and buy-back Managements guidance for EBIT margin increase to 40% and share buy-backs further support EPS growth Very attractive options Victoza in obesity as well as oral GLP-1 are interesting options that could further improve the long-term outlook. Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets

Results preview Q4

Brewers, Denmark

P&L expectation and momentum DKKm

Royal Unibrew Q4 is a seasonally small quarter for Royal Unibrew

Ahead of March 7 • • •

Results preview Q2 2012

Potential for EO dividend / new targets - still ACCUMULATE

Targets to be reached We expect Royal Unibrew to reach its 2012 EBIT guidance of DKK 465495m; we estimate DKK 480m. Also, we forecast the medium-term EBIT margin target of 14% to be reached in 2012, and we will be looking for news about future targets.

532

Mkt cap (EURm):

731

Mkt cap (DKKm):

5,446

No of shares (m):

10.2

Est. buybacks next 12m (% of MC):

17

Avg daily value (EURm):

1

Bloomberg:

Dividend is a joker Royal Unibrew aims to have a dividend payout ratio 40-60%, but following the partial sale of its former brewery land in Aarhus and the Polish divestment, a jumbo dividend cannot be ruled out. We factor in a dividend of DKK 25 per share, but actually see potential for twice that amount without burdening the balance sheet in any way.

87

192

212

115

605

91

margin (%)

15.8

11.5

19.5

22.6

15.1

17.6

12.7

85

56

160

184

80

480

59

11.2

7.5

16.3

19.7

10.5

14.0

8.3 54

EBT

87

46

164

187

79

476

Net income

66

34

122

143

53

352

40

EPS

6.1

3.22

11.5

13.5

5.1

33.4

3.83

6.1

3.22

11.5

13.5

5.1

33.4

3.83

31.9

34.0

34.9

34.3

33.4

-

34.0

Sales y-o-y (%)

-5.1

1.0

-1.3

1.0

-0.67

-0.04

-4.9

EBITDA adj y-o-y (%)

17.4

14.3

-0.3

-0.2

-4.8

0.7

4.7

EBIT adj y-o-y (%)

42.3

41.2

0.9

-3.4

-6.8

1.2

5.1

EPS adj y-o-y (%)

0.8

184

8.2

-4.0

-15.2

4.6

19.3

28.2

23.1

15.0

7.6

4.6

-

0

Top line:

Bottom line:

Significant items:

We forecast FY 2012 sales of

We forecast net profit of DKK

Focus on developments in the

525

DKK 3,429m, in line with

53m in Q4 and DKK 352m for

important Italian market; we include

Expected total return (%):

-1.3

guidance

FY 2012

9% y-o-y sales decline in Italy in Q4

Expected total dividend yield (%):

4.7

DCF Value (DKK):

484

Report info:

Balance sheet 2011 Net debt (DKKm):

623.0

Net debt/equity (%):

47.2

ROE (%):

27.0

ROIC (%):

24.1

Current guidance:

Report date:

Mar 7, 2013

FY 2012 sales: DKK 3,375-3,450m

Conf call:

09:00 a.m. CET

FY 2012 EBITDA: DKK 590-620m

Dial in Europe:

+44 1452 555 131

FY 2012 EBIT: DKK 465-495m

Dial in DK:

+45 3272 8018

Annual EBIT margin trend 15%

Main owners

Votes (%) Capital (%)

Chr. Augustinus Fabrikker A

Company page on Handelsbanken’s REON

121

Target price, inc. div. (DKK):

Guidance to be reached

Casper Blom, +45 46 79 12 95, [email protected]

716

EBITDA adj

Expected key features in report Focus on news from Italy

Share price has reached our target price Royal Unibrew has enjoyed an amazing comeback since flirting with bankruptcy in 2009. The share price is now up a staggering 2,000% from its trough, and is now roughly around our DKK 525 target price. However, as we see potential for an announcement of new, higher profitability targets and a large extraordinary dividend, we stick to ACCUMULATE ahead of the results.

Q1 13e

3,429

Source: Company accounts and Handelsbanken Capital Markets estimates

RBREW.CO Link to company website Link to IR website

12m target return

YTDe

759

EPSadj12mMAV y-o-y (%)

RBREW DC

Reuters: Web address: IR web address:

Q4 12e

937

EPS adj

100

Avg daily volume (000'):

Q3 12

980

EPS adj 12m MAV

3

Free float (%):

Q2 12

753

margin (%)

Mar 4, 2013

Share price (DKK):

Q1 12

764

EBIT adj

Will new profitability target be announced? Getting cash back to investors is still in focus

Q4 11

Sales

10

10

9

9

Skagen AS

We expect the 14% target to be reached in 2012

10.7% 10%

13.8%

11.0%

10.1%

9.5%

6.3%

14.0%

6.4%

5%

DKKm

2010

2011

2012e

2013e

2014e

Sales

3,775

3,431

3,429

3,373

3,432

Sales growth (%)

-1.1

-9.1

-0.04

-1.6

1.7

EBITDA adj

601

601

605

644

672

margin (%)

15.9

17.5

17.6

19.1

19.6

417

474

480

517

543

EBIT adj

11.0

13.8

14.0

15.3

15.8

EBT

margin (%)

375

461

476

528

552

EPS reported (DKK)

25.0

32.0

33.7

38.7

41.7

EPS adj (DKK)

25.0

32.0

33.7

38.7

41.7

Y-o-y growth (%)

343

28

5

15

8

EPS adj revisions (%)

3.2%

Absolute and relative performance

0%

DKK

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012e

Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets

461

130

What has changed

110 361 311

90

0

-1

0

P/E adj (x)

13.3

10.1

15.8

13.7

12.7

P/BV (x)

2.90

2.63

4.19

4.09

3.92

ROE adj (%)

25.0

27.0

27.0

30.1

31.4

EV/EBIT (x)

10.2

8.0

11.9

10.8

10.0

EV/EBITDA (x)

7.1

6.3

9.4

8.7

8.1

EV/sales (x)

1.1

1.1

1.7

1.7

1.6

%

-1m

-3m

-12m

Absolute:

4

17

54

Absolute EUR:

4

17

54

6

13

46

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

Royal Unibrew

D

J

F

M

chg (%)

HCM 2012e

chg (%)

HCM 2013e

chg (%)

Sales

759

-1

3,429

0

3,373

-1

Sales

772

-2

3,437

0

3,489

-3

EBITDA adj

115

-1

605

0

644

-1

EBITDA adj

112

2

613

-1

648

-1

15.1

0

17.6

0

19.1

0

margin (%)

14.5

1

17.8

0

18.6

1

80

-1

480

0

517

-1

EBIT adj

84

-5

487

-1

522

-1

DKKm

margin (%)

rel. DJ Stoxx 600

EBIT adj

12.6

11.2

5.6

6.4

7.0

Tot DPS (DKK)

12.5

17.0

25.0

25.0

25.0

Tot Div yield (%)

3.8

5.3

4.7

4.7

4.7

Relative DJStoxx:

55.0

47.2

26.9

31.9

34.0

52w range (DKK):

Source: Reuters

537 / 342

DKKm

Cons diff Q4 12e (%)

Cons diff 2012e (%)

Cons diff 2013e (%)

10.5

0

14.0

0

15.3

0

margin

10.9

0

14.2

0

14.9

0

EBT

79

-1

476

0

528

-1

EBT

80

-1

483

-1

528

0

Net income

53

-1

352

0

391

-1

Net income

57

-6

353

0

384

2

EPS

5.1

18

33.7

0

38.7

-1

EPS

5.6

-9

33.8

0

38.6

0

EPS adj

5.1

-6

33.7

0

38.7

-1

EPS adj

5.6

-9

33.8

0

38.4

1

margin (%)

FCF adj yield (%)

HCM vs. consensus

HCM Q4 12e

411

-

Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets

2005

150

511

-

Net debt/equity (%)

2004

Index

Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets

Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets & Reuters

Target price change

Building Products, Denmark

P&L outcome – Q4

Rockwool

DKKm Sales

EBITDA margin posts 250bp sequential drop

Trading headwinds to continue Results Comment Q4 2012

•

Weak Q4 and disappointing guidance

•

EPS estimates cut by 7% – street forecasts to come down

•

Mar 4, 2013

Share price (DKK):

9-12% premium to sector unwarranted – REDUCE

Europe swinging into negative territory With European construction activity under heavy pressure Rockwool saw a further deceleration in growth in Q4. Western European sales growth was in negative territory (Q4 -1% vs. Q3 +2%), Eastern Europe levelled off to 7% (12%) while the overseas market slumped to 10% (21%) due to China. Net profit was in line with guidance but underlying profitability was weak, as EBITDA came in 9% short of our expectations (6% below SME consensus).

Guidance 19% below street expectations Rockwool anticipates slight revenue growth but due to lacklustre trading in its core European market guides for a profit decline of ~10% vs. pre-Q4 expectations of a profit increase (HCMe +11%, cons. +12%). We cut our 2013e EPS by 7% on the back of the Q4 profitability and the guarded 2013 outlook and expect street forecasts to come down by a similar amount.

709.5 2,092

Mkt cap (DKKm):

15,591

No of shares (m):

22.0

Est. buybacks next 12m (% of MC):

n.m

Free float (%):

54

Avg daily volume (000'):

14

Avg daily value (EURm):

1

Bloomberg:

4,018

4.5

2.8

0.3

1.9

327

-0.6

-14.8

-0.6

1.6

margin (%)

8.1

-

-

-

-

EBT

324

-7.4

-12.9

-5.7

-5.5 -2.1

232

-9.7

-9.7

-2.8

EPS reported

10.56

-9.7

-9.7

-2.8

-3.6

EPS adj

10.56

-9.7

-9.7

-2.8

-3.6

Source: Company accounts, Handelsbanken Capital Markets, Reuters

Trend analysis %

Revenue to continue decelerating

ROCKB DC

Reuters: Web address: IR web address: Next event:

ROCKb.CO Link to company website Link to IR website Apr 17, 2013: AGM

Q1 12

Q2 12

Q3 12

Q4 12

Q1 13e

Sales y-o-y

10.9

6.4

6.3

4.5

0.44

EBIT adj Y-o-y

48.1

45.3

36.7

-0.61

5.3

EBIT adj margin

4.7

7.6

9.8

8.1

4.9

EPS adj (DKK)

4.69

8.2

11.7

10.6

5.0

EPS adj Y-o-y

51.5

46.3

33.9

-9.7

7.0

Source: Company accounts, Handelsbanken Capital Markets

Business area breakdown

12m target return Target price, inc. div. (DKK):

Sales - DKKm

595

Expected total return (%): Expected total dividend yield (%):

1.4

DCF Value (DKK):

Q4 11

Q1 12

Q2 12

Q3 12

Q4 12

3,421

2,995

3,350

3,621

3,584

790

589

617

639

828

35

45

29

34

81

-400

-335

-364

-385

-476

Insulation

-16.1

Systems

1,038

Other operating income Eliminations

EV/EBIT of 12.9x expensive given volume risks

Balance sheet 2012

On our new forecasts Rockwool trades at a premium of 9-12% to the sector on 2013e EV/EBIT. We believe this is unwarranted given a comparatively worse geographical exposure. European construction activity will remain under pressure in the coming quarters. Given volume risks and no signs of a recovery in Europe until 2014-15, we believe the stock is trading ahead of fundamentals. We reiterate REDUCE and trim our target to DKK 595 (600).

Net debt (DKKm):

Oth & eliminations 68.0

Net debt/equity (%):

Total

8.6

ROIC (%):

12.2

Main owners

Votes (%) Capital (%)

Rockwool Fonden

25

23

11

Business level profitability difficult to interpret due to reallocation of overhead costs

DKKm

2010

2011

2012

2013e

2014e

13,906

14,853

15,145

16,042

Sales growth (%)

4.8

16.8

6.8

2.0

5.9

EBIT adj

793

904

1,141

1,183

1,364

margin (%)

6.7

6.5

7.7

7.8

8.5

EBT

812

899

1,098

1,172

1,373

EPS reported (DKK)

23.3

29.1

35.1

36.6

42.3

EPS adj (DKK)

23.3

29.1

35.1

36.6

42.3

59

25

21

4

16

-

-

-

-7

-7

Y-o-y growth (%)

EPS adj revisions (%) P/E adj (x) P/BV (x)

29.8

15.8

18.0

19.4

16.8

1.78

1.17

1.48

1.56

ROE adj (%)

6.2

7.4

8.6

8.3

1.46 9.0

EV/EBIT (x)

19.7

11.5

12.0

12.9

11.1

EV/sales (x)

1.3

0.74

0.92

1.0

0.94

FCFE adj yield (%)

4.5

3.2

5.7

1.6

2.8

Tot DPS (DKK)

9.6

9.6

10.2

11.5

12.5

Tot Div yield (%)

1.4

2.1

1.6

1.6

1.8

Net debt/equity (%)

Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets

4.8

6.4

0.72

0.36

-1.3

0

0

1

3,632

3,909

4,018

6

Insulation

187

85

213

312

156

Systems

136

64

67

70

98

Eliminations

-

5

-4

2

73

Oth & eliminations

8

0

0

0

0

331

154

276

384

327

Total

11,907

0 3,294

EBIT - DKKm

Company page on Handelsbanken’s REON

Sales

0 3,846

0.7

ROE (%):

15th June Foundation

Fasial Kalim Ahmad, +45 46 79 16 12, [email protected]

Deviation % HCM Cons

EBIT adj

Net income

Mkt cap (EURm):

Growth % Y-o-y Q-o-q

Actual

EBIT margin %

Absolute and relative performance DKK

Index

719

Insulation

5.5

2.8

6.4

8.6

4.4

Systems

17.2

10.9

10.9

11.0

11.8

-

-1.5

1.1

-0.52

-15.3

8.6

4.7

7.6

9.8

8.1

Cons diff 2013e (%)

Cons diff 2014e (%)

Eliminations

125

Total

659

115

Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets 599

105

539

95

479

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

Rockwool

D

J

F

M

What has changed

85

HCM 2013e

chg (%)

HCM 2014e

chg (%)

3,309

n.m

15,145

-1

16,042

-1

Sales

-

n.m

15,137

0

15,928

1

162

n.m

1,183

-6

1,364

-5

EBIT adj

-

n.m

1,217

-3

1,405

-3

margin (%)

4.9

n.m

7.8

-5

8.5

-4

margin

-

-

8.0

0

8.8

0

161

n.m

1,172

-7

1,373

-7

EBT

-

n.m

1,215

-4

1,389

-1

Sales

rel. DJ Stoxx 600

EBIT adj

%

-1m

-3m

-12m

HCM vs. consensus chg (%)

DKKm

HCM Q1 13e

DKKm

Cons diff Q1 13e (%)

Absolute:

7

18

26

EBT

Absolute EUR:

7

18

26

Net income

110

n.m

804

-7

929

-7

Net income

-

n.m

831

-3

952

-2

Relative DJStoxx:

9

13

19

EPS

5.0

n.m

36.6

-7

42.3

-7

EPS

-

n.m

38.2

-4

45.5

-7

EPS adj

5.0

n.m

36.6

-7

42.3

-7

EPS adj

-

n.m

39.5

-7

46.1

-8

52w range (DKK):

Source: Reuters

721 / 486

Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets

Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets & Reuters

D/S Norden / Accumulate / DKK 179.3 - Consensus is slightly more optimistic on Q4 2012

Meda / Buy / SEK 72.55 - Growth returned to Dymista and market in week 8

•

•

Dymista weekly TRx up 5%

EBIT loss due to loss from vessel sales

•

•

Market grew by 11%

EBITDA of USD 120m expected in 2013 - in line with market

•

•

First week with impact from the allergy season

Market sees drop of DKK 16 per share in NAV q-o-q

We are below the market for Q4e When DS Norden reports Q4 2012 on March 6 we expect an EBITDA of USD 17m for the quarter, and the market is somewhat above at USD 28m. A loss on vessel sales of USD 25m takes EBIT to an expected loss of USD 24m in Q4 2012, while the market expects an EBIT loss of USD 18m. But in line with market for 2013e We expect an EBITDA of USD 118m in 2013 and the market expects an EBITDA of USD 120m, so the market implicitly expects a modest improvement in spot rates during 2013, in line with our assumptions. We expect an average Panamax spot rate of USD 14,000 per day in 2013 versus below USD 10,000 in 2012. Reported values around DKK 190 per share down DKK 8 q-o-q - market is more negative We expect DS Norden to report a net asset value of DKK 190 per share at end-Q4 2012, down from DKK 198 per share at end-Q3 2012 due to lower second-hand prices, lower TC rates and a lower US dollar. The market expects a larger drop in the reported net asset value, of DKK 16 per share. Key figures - D/S Norden USDm : 2012e / 2013e / 2014e Net operating rev (TCE) : 1,129 / 1,046 / 1,273 EBIT adj : 30 / 15 / 69 margin (%) : 2.7 / 1.5 / 5.4 EPS adj (USD) : 0.69 / 0.31 / 1.59 Ratios : 2012e / 2013e / 2014e P/E adj (x) : 45.5 / >99 / 19.7 EV/EBIT (x) : 33.8 / 60.3 / 11.5 EV/Sales (x) : 0.90 / 0.88 / 0.62 Tot Div yield (%) : 2.2 / 2.2 / 2.2 Target price (DKK) : 195

First signs of allergy season impact Prescription data for the week ending February 22 showed weekly Dymista TRx up by 4.9% to a count of 9,708. In the same week TRx for comparable steroids (Flonase, Nasonex, etc.) increased by 11% over the previous week. 11% is the highest growth rate seen for the group in seven weeks and suggests that the allergy season is starting to impact prescriptions. High pollen rates in the US are currently observed in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Oklahoma and Texas. Pollen levels in cities on the east coast, where Meda expects strong demand for Dymista, are still low. Key figures - Meda SEKm : 2012 / 2013e / 2014e Sales : 12,991 / 13,420 / 14,992 EBITDA adj : 3,935 / 4,037 / 5,075 margin (%) : 30.3 / 30.1 / 33.9 EPS adj (SEK) : 8.3 / 8.7 / 11.4 Ratios : 2012 / 2013e / 2014e P/E adj (x) : 8.0 / 8.3 / 6.3 EV/EBITDA (x) : 9.1 / 8.8 / 6.5 EV/Sales (x) : 2.7 / 2.6 / 2.2 Tot Div yield (%) : 3.4 / 3.1 / 3.1 Target price (SEK) : 100

Statoil / Accumulate / NOK 142.7 - Meeting with CEO: Cost-reduction efforts a very high priority •

Intensified focus on cost reductions in Statoil

•

Standardisation, efficiency and use of service providers in global competition

•

CEO unconvinced shale will become an important part of European energy supply

Sees costs rising due to high activity and, even moreso, to higher complexity We invited investors for a lunch meeting with Statoil CEO Helge Lund. This time, there was a particular focus on the cost trend. Costs are seen increasing due to high activity level and, even moreso, due to the higher complexity of new field developments, while the oil price has stayed stable for some time and downside risk is in focus. We see the cost issues as an important reason behind the modest share price performance during the past couple of years. Considers attractiveness of the Norwegian Continental Shelf underestimated The message from Statoil is its intensified focus on standardisation, efficiency improvement and the use of service providers in global competition. In Statoil's view, the Norwegian oil service industry is generally very good, with high competence and technology - but Norwegian service providers are not able to compete in all areas today. The CEO also commented that, in his view, many (investors/analysts rather than oil service providers) are underestimating the attractiveness of the Norwegian Continental Shelf. The very best investments of recent years have been trough exploration In relation to the oil market, the CEO also commented that many are underestimating the global decline in existing production. He expressed that he did see other areas as more technically complex than shale, but expected more focus to come on the use of water - where the industry gradually must be more efficient. Statoil is, however, not at all convinced of shale as an important part on European energy supply. The very best investments done by Statoil in recent years have been through exploration, and in this way the company has significantly strengthened its resource base, according to the CEO. Key figures - Statoil NOKm : 2012 / 2013e / 2014e Sales : 723,416 / 666,415 / 706,494 EBIT adj : 192,256 / 165,297 / 179,737 margin (%) : 26.6 / 24.8 / 25.4 EPS adj (NOK) : 17.2 / 15.0 / 16.6 Ratios : 2012 / 2013e / 2014e P/E adj (x) : 8.1 / 9.5 / 8.6 EV/EBIT (x) : 2.5 / 3.1 / 2.9 EV/Sales (x) : 0.66 / 0.77 / 0.74 Tot Div yield (%) : 4.9 / 4.9 / 5.1 Target price (NOK) : 160

Recommendation Structure, Definitions and Allocations Handelsbanken Capital Markets Equity Research (HCM) employs a four graded recommendation scale. The recommendations reflect the analyst’s assessment of how much the share price may appreciate or depreciate in absolute terms in a six-month time horizon and takes into account risks related to both fundamental expectations and share performance. Investment ratings are determined by the ranges described in the table below. The recommendations do not represent the analyst’s or the bank’s assessment of the company’s fundamental value or quality. All investments involve risks and investors are encouraged to make their own decision as to the appropriateness of an investment in any securities referred to in this report, based on their specific investment objectives, financial status and risk tolerance. The recommendations and absolute performance intervals, together with the allocation of the rating categories amongst companies under coverage and amongst companies under covarege for which Handelsbanken has provided investment banking services in the past 12 months are listed below:

Ratings: definitions and allocations HCM rating

RTP is expected to be1

Buy Accumulate Reduce Sell

>+20% +5% - +20% -15% - +5 % < -15 %

HCM Universe2

IB services3

26% 45% 28% 1%

10% 2% 9% 0%

1 RTP is defined as the expected share price appreciation (depreciation) including dividends over the next 12 months 2 Percentage of companies under coverage within each rating category 3 Percentage of companies within each rating category for which investment banking services have been provided in the past 12 months Source: Handelsbanken Capital Markets, as per 4/3 2013 At times, the expected total returns may fall outside of the above stated ranges because of price movement and/or volatility. Such interim deviations from specified ranges will be permitted but will become subject to review by Research Management. Recommendations are continuously reviewed by the analyst and monitored by the Research Management and will be updated and/or refreshed regularly. The rationale behind a change in recommendation will be explained in such a refresher/update. The FTV (Fair Trading Value) is the analyst’s assessment of the level at which the share should be traded in a six-month period. The FTV is used as a basis for the recommendation (see explanation above) and takes into account timing-related issues and triggers, such as relative valuation and newsflow. The FTV does not represent the analyst’s or the bank’s assessment of the company’s fundamental value or quality. The models used are based on a forecast period of at least ten years followed by a sustainable year, on which the residual period is based.

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