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NiveshDaily January 19, 2017
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From Research Desk Result Update
KPIT Technologies Ltd
Result Today
Daljeet S. Kohli Head of Research Tel: +91 22 66188826
[email protected]
IndiaNivesh Research
IndiaNivesh Securities Limited | Research Analyst SEBI Registration No. INH000000511 601 & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai 400 007. Tel: (022) 66188800
IndiaNivesh Research is also available on Bloomberg INNS, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factiva INDNIV.
KPIT Technologies (KPIT Cummins) Challenge on Growth Front remains; Maintain SELL with TP of Rs.122
Current
Previous
CMP : Rs 145 Rating : SELL Target : Rs 122
Rating : SELL Target : Rs 122
Rs. Mn
Q3FY17
Q2FY17
Q3FY16
Q‐o‐Q%
Y‐o‐Y%
INSPL est
Variance%
123
123
123
0%
0
124
‐0.8%
In‐Line
Revenue
8306.8
8310
8132.8
0.0%
2.1%
8393
‐1%
In‐Line
EBITDA
845.8
914
1166.6
‐7.5%
‐27.5%
965
‐12.4%
Lower‐Est
(NR‐Not Rated)
Adj.PAT
475
562
720.5
‐15.5%
‐34.1%
594
‐20.0%
Lower‐Est
STOCK INFO
Adj.EPS
2.5
3
3.8
‐16.7%
‐34.2%
3.1
‐19.4%
Lower‐Est
$‐revenue
Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research
INDEX BSE 532400 NSE KPIT Bloomberg KPIT IN Reuters KPIT.NS Sector Information Technology Face Value (Rs) 2 Equity Capital (Rs mn) 395 Mkt Cap (Rs mn) 28,716 52w H/L (Rs) 197 / 108 Avg Daily Vol (BSE+NSE) 842,599
KPIT Technologies Ltd. Q3FY17 topline was in‐line with INSL estimates. $‐revenue for the quarter stood at ~US$123mn and grew marginally by 0.65% Q/Q in constant currency term. Rupee‐revenue remained flattish sequentially but grew 2.1% Y/Y. Q3FY17 was comparatively weak quarter due to 2.5% of lower billing days (Vacation in Oct‐Nov in offshore and in Dec in onshore). Operating margins contracted by 82bps sequentially to ~10.2% as employee cost witnessed significant uptick of 231bps to 63.9% in Q3FY17. Adjusted net profit de‐grew by 34% Q/Q to ~Rs.475mn mainly due to lower EBITDA but reported PAT was higher ~2% to ~Rs.736mn due to gain on sale of the company’s entire stake in KPIT Medini Technologies AG. The management is likely to invest in building technologies in automation, digital transformation & automotive engineering during the H2FY17 as the Product business sees good traction. Currently digital revenue accounted for 25% of the total revenue and growing at CAGR of ~30% for the last two years.
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN
%
(as on Dec. 2016)
Promoters Public Others
Comments
16.72 78.50 4.78
STOCK PERFORMANCE(%) 3m 6m KPIT IN Equity 10.9 3.9 SENSEX (2.8) (1.8)
12m 0.9 12.7
Source: Bloomberg, IndiaNivesh Research
KPIT IN Equity v/s SENSEX
Results
Q/Q %
Y/Y %
Q3
Q2
Q3
Change
Change
Revenue from Operations
8132.8
8310
8306.8
‐0.04%
2.14%
Total Income
Rs millions
Source: Bloomberg, IndiaNivesh Research
Daljeet S. Kohli Head of Research Tel: +91 22 66188826
[email protected]
Saptarshi Mukherjee Research Associate Tel: +91‐2266188818
[email protected]
FY17
8132.8
8310
8306.8
Employee costs
‐4934
‐5122
‐5312
3.71%
7.66%
As a % of sales
60.7%
61.6%
63.9%
Operations and other expenses
‐2032
‐2274
‐2149
‐5.50%
5.75%
As a % of sales
25.0%
27.4%
25.9%
‐27.50%
EBITDA
FY16
1166.58
914
845.8
‐7.46%
EBITDA margin
14.3%
11.0%
10.2%
Depreciation
‐180.5
‐200
‐191.5
‐4.25%
6.09%
2.2%
2.4%
2.3%
As a % of sales EBIT
986.08
714
654.3
‐8.36%
‐33.65%
EBIT Margin
12.1%
8.6%
7.9%
1.13
36
‐36.43
0
0
260.91
987.21
750
878.78
17.17%
‐10.98%
‐266.74
‐188
‐143
‐23.94%
‐46.39%
% of EBT
27.0%
25.1%
16.3%
Net Income
720.47
562
735.78
30.92%
2.13%
Net Margin
8.9%
6.8%
8.9%
Other comprehensive income
28.87
(89.37)
(25.00)
Total Comprehensive income
749.34
472.63
710.78
Adj. PAT
720.47
562.00
474.87
3.8
3.0
2.5
Net financials & Other income Exceptional Items Earnings before Tax Taxes
Adj.EPS ‐ Basic Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research
IndiaNivesh Securities Ltd
IndiaNivesh Securities Limited|Research Analyst SEBI Registration No:INH0000000511
601 & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai 400 007. Tel: (022) 66188800
IndiaNivesh Research is also available on Bloomberg INNS, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factiva INDNIV.
Q3FY17 Result Update | KPIT Technologies (KPIT Cummins)
Key Result Takeaways Top Clients Update During the quarter, Cummins account demonstrated de‐growth of 3.4% Q/Q to $15.61mn (v/s $16.16mn in Q2FY17) and contributed 12.64% to total revenue. Top‐5 accounts reported $‐revenue de‐growth of ~1.9% Q/Q to $33.64mn (v/s $34.29mn in Q2FY17) and contributed 27.24% to the overall revenue. Top‐10/Non‐Top10 delivered growth of 0.9% Q/Q to $48mn and contributed 38.9% of the total revenue (an ERP implementation project ended).
Performance of key ‐ SBU/Verticals/Geography ROW [6.48% Q/Q |cont. 15.49%] and Europe [‐11.11% Q/Q |cont. 14.42%] de‐grew during the quarter; partially offset by 4.22% Q/Q growth in US which contributed 70.09% to the total revenue. During the quarter, Automotive & Transportation and energy/utilities de‐grew by ~4%/2.72% and contributed ~39.3%/14.07% of the total revenue. Manufacturing and Others verticals went‐Up 5.54%/0.46% Q/Q and contributed 37.2%/9.44% of the total revenue. In terms of SBU, SAP and Digital Transformation are the key growth drivers, up 2.5%/17.36% Q/Q respectively. Apart from that, Product & platform and Product engineering services de‐grew materially by 13.55/4.54% Q/Q whereas Integrated Enterprise solution witnessed a marginal downtick of 0.56% Q/Q to ~29.55% in Q3FY17.
Update on key operating metrics During the quarter, KPIT’s net hiring was positive 215 employees to 11,881 in Q3FY17.). Onsite utilization rate was 89.15% in Q3FY17 (v/s 89.58% in Q2FY17). KPIT added 2 new clients (v/s 3 in Q2FY17) leading to total active customer base of 225 (v/s 223 in Q2FY17). Offsite revenue de‐grew by ~0.95% to 42.33% in Q3FY17. The telecom solution business (SI) was 0.71% in Q3FY17, down by 36.43% in Q2FY17. Fixed price projects witnessed a significant uptick of 20% and contributed 33.67% of total revenue share. Going‐ahead, we could see reduction in client base given its renewed focus on only top and strategic accounts and reducing presence in tail/non‐scalable accounts. Management has primarily focused on improving utilization level through recruiting fresh graduates and absorbs to live projects. Growth, utilization improvement and non‐ billable cost management will be the 3 key levers for the profitability going ahead.
Other key Highlights
The Cash Balance as at December 31, 2016 stood at Rs.4,773.41mn as compared to Rs.4371.58mn as on September 31, 2016. As on December 31, 2016 company’s total debt stood at Rs.3995.88mn (Rs.4131.6mn as of September 30, 2016) comprising of Rs.2,267mn of Term Loan and Rs.1,728.6mn of Working Capital Loan. The DSO at 76 days in Q3FY17 which was 82days in Q2FY17.
Valuation At CMP of Rs.145, the stock is trading at 11.8x FY17E and 11x FY18E EPS estimate. To fulfill FY17 revenue target (ISNL Est.), company needs to achieve Rs.8,263mn as topline in Q4FY17 and have considered ~7% growth in revenue for FY18. We believe that no further correction in estimates is required as off now because we are already conservative. Given that traditional ERP business pie stood below ~10% of the total revenue and new age IT business not reaching to the required scale, we maintain our SELL rating with TP of Rs.122 (9.0x FY18E) on the stock.
IndiaNivesh Securities Ltd
19 Jan 2017
2 of 4
Q3FY17 Result Update | KPIT Technologies (KPIT Cummins) Income Statement (Consolidated) Y E March (Rs m)
Net sales Growth (%)
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
26,940
29,899
32,243
32,485
34,759
20
11
8
1
7
(23,164)
(26,655)
(28,003)
(28,830)
(30,848)
3,776
3,244
4,240
3,655
3,911
0
0
0
0
0
3,776
3,244
4,240
3,655
3,911
Growth (%)
12.5
(14.1)
30.7
(13.8)
7.0
Depreciation
(540)
(851)
(691)
(696)
(745)
Operating expenses Operating profit Other operating income EBITDA
Other income EBIT Finance cost
451
352
248
158
186
3,688
2,745
3,797
3,116
3,351 (65)
(258)
(260)
(152)
(65)
Exceptional item
0
0
0
0
0
Profit before tax
3,430
2,485
3,645
3,051
3,285
Tax (current + deferred) Profit / (Loss) for the period
(941)
(115)
(830)
(695)
(748)
2,490
2,370
2,815
2,356
2,538
Associates, Min Int
0
0
0
0
0
Reported net profit
2,490
2,370
2,815
2,356
2,538
Extraordinary item
0
0
0
0
0
Adjusted net profit
2,490
2,370
2,815
2,356
2,538
25
(5)
19
(16)
8
Y E March (Rs m )
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
Share capital
371
376
376
376
376
Reserves & surplus
12,380
12,585
13,432
15,597
17,942
Net Worth
12,751
12,962
13,808
15,972
18,318
0
0
0
0
0
Total Liabilities
8,409
9,219
7,525
7,525
7,743
Non‐current liabilities
5,181
5,473
2,686
2,686
2,686
Long‐term borrowings
4,948
5,050
2,171
2,171
2,171
Deferred tax liabilities
0
0
0
0
0
233
423
516
516
516
Growth (%) Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research
Balance Sheet (Consolidated)
Minority Interest
Other Long term liabilities Long term provisions Current Liabilities Short term borrowings Trade payables Other current Liabilities Short term provisions Total Liabilities and Equity
0
0
0
0
0
3,227
3,746
4,839
4,839
5,057
0
0
0
0
0
2,721
3,657
4,528
4,539
4,857
506
89
311
300
200
0
0
0
0
0
21,160
22,181
21,333
23,498
26,061
Non Current Assets
11,004
9,622
8,555
8,666
8,777
Net Block
11,004
9,622
8,555
8,666
8,777
Goodwill
0
0
0
0
0
Non‐current Investments
0
0
0
0
0
Long‐term loans and advances
0
0
0
0
0
Deferred tax Assets
0
0
0
0
0
Other non current Assets
0
0
0
0
0
10,156
12,559
12,778
14,831
17,284
34
229
380
356
381
Sundry Debtors
6,743
6,979
6,861
8,010
8,571
Cash & Bank Balances
1,908
3,638
3,953
4,637
6,491
0
0
0
0
0
1,471
1,714
1,583
1,828
1,841
Current Assets Inventories
Other current Assets Loans & Advances Current Investments Total (Assets)
0
0
0
0
0
21,160
22,181
21,333
23,498
26,061
Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research
IndiaNivesh Securities Ltd
19 Jan 2017
3 of 4
Q3FY17 Result Update | KPIT Technologies (KPIT Cummins) Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated)
Y E March (Rs m)
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
Profit before tax
3,430
2,485
3,645
3,051
3,285
Depreciation
540
851
691
696
745
(2,292)
(154)
1,189
(1,370)
(381)
Total tax paid
(941)
(115)
(830)
(695)
(748)
Others
(194)
(92)
(96)
(93)
(120)
543
2,976
4,600
1,590
2,782
(1,786)
530
376
(807)
(856)
0
0
0
0
0
451
352
248
158
186
Change in working capital
Cash flow from operations (a) Capital expenditure Change in investments Others Cash flow from investing (b)
(1,335)
882
624
(649)
(671)
Free cash flow (a+capex)
(1,243)
3,506
4,975
783
1,925
Equity raised/(repaid) Debt raised/(repaid)
(15)
5
0
0
0
1,317
101
(2,879)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
(614)
(2,425)
(2,120)
(257)
(257)
Cash flow from financing (c)
779
(2,128)
(4,907)
(257)
(257)
Net change in cash (a+b+c)
(13)
1,730
316
684
1,854
Dividend (incl. tax) Others
Reconciliation of Other balances Cash as per Balance Sheet
0
0
0
0
0
1,908
3,638
3,953
4,637
6,491
Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research
Key Ratios (Consolidated ) Y E March
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
Adjusted EPS (Rs)
13.0
12.4
14.7
12.3
13.2
Growth
25.1
(4.8)
18.8
(16.3)
7.7
Dividend/share (Rs)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Dividend payout ratio
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
EBITDA margin
14.0
10.9
13.2
11.3
11.3 9.6
EBIT margin
13.7
9.2
11.8
9.6
Net Margin
9.2
7.9
8.7
7.3
7.3
Tax rate (%)
27.4
4.6
22.8
22.8
22.8
Debt/Equity(x)
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.1
Inventory Days
0
3
4
4
4
Sundry Debtor Days
91
85
78
90
90
Trade Payable Days
37
45
51
51
Du Pont Analysis ‐ ROE
51
Net margin
9.2
7.9
8.7
7.3
7.3
Asset turnover (x)
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.4
1.4
Leverage factor (x)
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
ROE(%)
21.5
18.4
21.0
15.8
14.8
RoCE (%)
22.8
15.1
21.7
17.7
16.9
PER
10.3
10.8
9.1
10.9
10.1
PCE
8.5
8.0
7.3
8.4
7.8
Price/Book
2.0
2.0
1.9
1.6
1.4
EV/EBITDA
7.6
8.4
5.6
6.4
5.5
Valuation (x)
Source: Company, IndiaNivesh Research
IndiaNivesh Securities Ltd
19 Jan 2017
4 of 4
Result Today Axis Bank Ltd. Federal Bank Ltd. Lakshmi Vilas Bank Ltd.
IndiaNivesh Research
January 19, 2017
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (“INSL”), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. INSL includes subsidiaries, group and associate companies, promoters, employees and affiliates. INSL researches, aggregates and faithfully reproduces information available in public domain and other sources, considered to be reliable and makes them available for the recipient, though its accuracy or completeness has not been verified by INSL independently and cannot be guaranteed. The third party research material included in this document does not represent the views of INSL and/or its officers, employees and the recipient must exercise independent judgement with regard to such content. This document has been published in accordance with the provisions of Regulation 18 of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. This document is not to be altered, transmitted, reproduced, copied, redistributed, uploaded or published or made available to others, in any form, in whole or in part, for any purpose without prior written permission from INSL. This document is solely for information purpose and should not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. INSL does not take responsibility thereof. The research analysts of INSL have adhered to the code of conduct under Regulation 24 (2) of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. This document is based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock’s price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company’s fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company’s fundamentals. Nothing in this document constitutes investment, legal, accounting and/or tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to recipients’ specific circumstances. INSL does not accept any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, assurances, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this document only. The opinions are subject to change without any notice. INSL directors/employees and its clients may have holdings in the stocks mentioned in the document. This report is based / focused on fundamentals of the Company and forward‐looking statements as such, may not match with a report on a company’s technical analysis report Each of the analysts named below hereby certifies that, with respect to each subject company and its securities for which the analyst is responsible in this report, (1) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject companies and securities, and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report: Daljeet S Kohli, Kamal Sahoo, Santosh Yellapu, Rajiv Bharati, Sriram R, Monami Manna and Saptarshi Mukherjee. Following table contains the disclosure of interest in order to adhere to utmost transparency in the matter:
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