Next Generation Lighting Controls October 29, 2015 Jesse Foote Senior Research Analyst ©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. Notice: No material in this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted by any means, in whole or in part, without the express written permission of Navigant Consulting, Inc.
M A R K E T I N T E L L I G E N C E • A N A LY S I S • B E N C H M A R K I N G
Next Generation Lighting Controls Market Drivers
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Innovative non-energy benefits Falling LED prices and skyrocketing adoption rates Falling costs for wireless control gear ASHRAE 90.1, Title 24, European 20-20-20 Growing expectation of control
Market Barriers
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©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
ROI from controls on LEDs is much worse Complexity, especially for small and medium buildings Lack of standardization Insufficient knowledge and experience
LED Global Outlook » »
Ongoing fall in LED prices Unit shipments of LED lamps and modules forecast to grow at a 19.0% CAGR through 2024 LED lamps grow fastest in the near term, then overcome by integrated luminaires
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Unit Shipments of LED Lamps and Modules by End Use, World Markets: 2015-2024 4,500,000 4,000,000
Lamps - Commercial Lamps - Industrial Modules - Commercial Modules - Industrial Modules - Automotive
(Source: U.S. Department of Energy)
Lamps - Residential Lamps - Outdoor Modules - Residential Modules - Outdoor
(Thousands)
3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 2015
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2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
2024 (Source: Navigant Research)
Growth of Networked Controls Networked Lighting Controls Revenue by Building Type, North America: 2015-2024 $2,500
($ Millions)
$2,000
Office Education Hotels & Restaurants Warehouse
Retail Healthcare Institutional/Assembly Transport
$1,500
$1,000
$500
$2015
» » »
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
(Source: Navigant Research)
North America CAGR – 7.9% North America, Work Markets – 8.9% Retail spaces have largest share of market and experience some of the fastest growth, 9.4%, as new technologies for engaging customers become popular Transport buildings are forecast to experience the fastest growth, 10.1%, as adoption is currently quite low, but benefits will become convincing
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Technology Trends
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Simplicity versus sophistication Non-energy benefits
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Handling complex building codes Color tuning Visual light communications Facility management
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Communications protocols Prescriptive rebates
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Lighting as a platform Standardization
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Lighting as a Service 5
(Source: ByteLight)
(Source: Crestron)
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Wireless Control Standards Wireless Equipment Revenue by Wireless Technology, World Markets: 2015-2024 $450 $400
Proprietary EnOcean Z-Wave Other Protocols
ZigBee Wi-Fi Bluetooth
($ Millions)
$350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
(Source: Navigant Research)
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Proprietary communication protocols stay relatively flat, declining by a -0.2% CAGR through 2024, while the overall wireless market grows 10.2% EnOcean and Zigbee are the largest open standards, and are forecast to grow at 11.2% and 12.0% CAGR respectively Bluetooth is forecast to grow the fastest, at 26.4%, though this is mostly because it starts from a tiny base, and the technology is largely used for programming/commissioning. ©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
Smart City Applications and Technologies Industry/Operational Area Smart Energy
Smart Water
Smart City Applications
Key Technologies
City Examples
Demand management, EV support, energy efficiency program, renewable energy integration Water system upgrades, consumption monitoring, wastewater treatment, environmental safety systems, flood management
Smart meters, home energy management (HEM), distribution automation, grid analytics, demand response (DR) systems Smart water meters, sensor and communication networks, water monitoring and management systems, water system analytics, weather forecasting Intelligent transportation systems (ITSs), EV charging systems, road use pricing systems, sensors networks, monitoring and management parking, traffic monitoring, predictive analytics, vehicle telematics, public portals and smart apps, open data platforms Building energy management systems (BEMSs), building automation systems (BASs), energy performance management, grid integration, intelligent lighting systems
Austin, San Diego, Bristol, Bilbao, Lyon, Malaga, Vienna, Yokohama Dubuque, San Francisco, Washington D.C., Barcelona, Paris, Nice, Da Nang (Vietnam), Singapore, Masdar City
Smart Transportation
Traffic monitoring and management, congestion management, road user charging, carsharing, emergency response, public information systems, smart parking, integrated traffic light management
Smart Buildings
Public sector energy management programs, grid integration for renewables, EV charging stations, lighting/waste/water management
Smart Government
Sensor networks, cloud computing Public safety, social care, tele-heath, services, data analytics, open data e-education, smart street lighting, platforms, lighting networks, emergency citizen portals, waste collection response systems
Dallas, San Francisco, Amsterdam, Hamburg, London, Stockholm, Santander, Singapore, Shenzhen, Toyota, Zhenjiang, Rio de Janeiro Boston, Amsterdam, London, Vienna, Songdo, Tokyo, Yokohama Chicago, Philadelphia, New York, Amsterdam, Barcelona, Glasgow, Copenhagen, Helsinki, Busan, Seoul, Rio de Janeiro, Cape Town (Source: Navigant Research)
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Lighting as a Controls Platform Wireless Transceiver
App Based Control
RGBA Notification
Digital Street Sign
Photocell
Concealed Placement Speaker
Image Sensor / Pedestrian Counter
Digital Signage
Façade Lighting
Push To Talk System Seismic Sensors
Water Detection
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©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
(Source: Intellistreets)
The Evolution of Smart Cities: Key Challenges for the Next Phase » » » »
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Moving from pilots to city-scale deployments
› Commercially viable projects › Engaging with all citizens Establishing proven and repeatable financial models › Which projects are showing a real return on investment? › How can these be more easily adopted by other cities? Improving access to and exploitation of data resources › Where is better information management making a real difference? › What are the barriers to integration and exploitation of big data? Determining the role for standards and interoperability frameworks › Are smart city standards needed, and what form should they take?
©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
