Next 11 Emerging Markets Fund Fund presentation
APRIL 2011
Next 11 Emerging Markets Presentation Overview
What is this fund? – Next 11 Emerging Markets Fund, based on an original idea by Goldman Sachs in 2005 Reasons why? – Countries with low levels of debt to GDP should outperform countries with high levels of debt to GDP Why we believe you should own this fund – Experienced management team, improved efficient frontier curve Why we believe this asset class will outperform over the next 10 years – debt to GDP discussion, rising consumer class leading to possible re-rating Addendum
Source: Castlestone Management
2
www.castlestonemanagement.com
Creation of the N-11 concept and its evolution
2010 2007
2005 Goldman Sachs introduced the concept of Next 11
2001 Goldman Sachs coins the term „BRIC‟
Source: *Goldman Sachs Global Economics Papers – GS Global Economic Website.
3
www.castlestonemanagement.com
Next 11 becomes more than an acronym – increased focus on these countries
Castlestone launches the Next 11 fund
What are the Next 11 Emerging Markets?
Turkey
Korea
Mexico
Vietnam
Iran Philippines
Pakistan
Nigeria Egypt
Indonesia Bangladesh
Geographically Diversified
Source: Goldman Sachs & Castlestone Management
4
www.castlestonemanagement.com
Population** The driving factor Vietnam
86.4
Turkey
Population in Millions**
75.2
South Korea
48.1
Philippines
85.9
Pakistan
164.6
Nigeria
137.2
Mexico
109.6
Iran
71.2
Indonesia
228.1
Egypt
76.9
Bangladesh
147.1
0
50
Source: *2009 IMF, 1999 nation master. ** The Economist Pocket World Figures 2010. Note: Past performance cannot be relied on as a guide to future performance.
5
www.castlestonemanagement.com
100
150
200
250
GDP per capita* Rising consumer class +695%
Vietnam
+350%
Turkey
+193%
South Korea +244%
Philippines
+470%
Pakistan
+686%
Nigeria
+174%
Mexico +570%
Iran
+346%
Egypt
$0
1999*
+505%
Indonesia
Bangladesh
+306%
$5,000
$10,000
Source: *2009 IMF, 1999 nation master. ** The Economist Pocket World Figures 2010. Note: Past performance cannot be relied on as a guide to future performance.
6
2009*
www.castlestonemanagement.com
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
Next 11 Emerging Markets
The Fund The fund is a long only Next 11 fund with actively managed exposure to Next 11 emerging market equities.* This fund will not invest directly in Iran, but may obtain indirect exposure to the country via stock picking FSA recognised and approved for distribution in the UK Available in $USD, €EUR and £GBP € EUR and £ GBP shares hedged against $ USD
* The fund may also invest in linked indices, ETFs and third party funds
7
www.castlestonemanagement.com
Next 11 Emerging Markets
The Objective The primary investment objective is to provide positive returns in a variety of market conditions by investing in the Next 11 countries ex Iran.
The Strategy The Next 11 Emerging Markets Fund can invest across equities linked to the economic development of the Next 11 emerging markets.
8
www.castlestonemanagement.com
Reasons why?
The concept was introduced by Goldman Sachs in 2005 in a similar way that Goldman Sachs introduced BRIC in 2001 ─ The concept was based on determining countries with large populations that will challenge the G7 countries by 2050 Geographic diversification ─ Next 11 countries comprise less than 20% of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index ─ Next 11 countries are less economically and politically „interlinked‟ unlike the BRIC countries where China is dominant both economically and politically ─ Each country is predominantly domestically driven and therefore less affected by another N11 country – consider the image of a „string of pearls‟
9
www.castlestonemanagement.com
Reasons why?
Next 11 Emerging Markets enhances your Emerging Markets portfolio return
2001 – 2011*
BRIC outperformed GEMs by 3.4% pa
2001 – 2011*
GEMs outperformed S&P by 15% pa
2001 – 2011*
Next 11 outperformed S&P by 21% pa
2001 – 2011*
Next 11 outperformed BRIC by 2.6% pa
2001 – 2011*
Next 11 outperformed GEMS by 6% pa
If a re-rating of the N11 markets were to occur, as it did with BRIC, the Next 11 Emerging Market Fund should significantly outperform GEM funds over the next decade
Source: *Bloomberg & Castlestone Management.
10 www.castlestonemanagement.com
Reasons why?
We believe emerging markets will outperform developed markets over the next decade ─ Equity markets in countries with low levels of debt to GDP should outperform those with high levels of debt to GDP due to potential re-rating of equity p/e multiples:
Infrastructure investment (roads, rail) leading to improved productivity
Reduced burden of an aging population on medical and pensions systems
Dynamic development of independence, privatisation, rights etc
Better healthcare/education systems with increased population growth
Increased integration with global economies
Higher degrees of corporate governance, regulatory oversight
Source: *Bloomberg & Castlestone Management.
11 www.castlestonemanagement.com
Improved Portfolio Efficiency
11% Portfolio A: Fixed Income, Equities, Commodities, Emerging Markets and Next 11 Portfolio B: Fixed Income, Equities, Commodities and Emerging Markets
10%
Portfolio C: Fixed Income, Equities and Commodities 9%
22% Weighting to Next 11 would have resulted in a total increase in annualised returns of 88% over portfolio C and of 12% over portfolio B, at the same level of risk
Annualised Return
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2% 2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Standard Deviation Source: Bloomberg & Castlestone Management. Fixed Income: Merrill Lynch Global Government Bond Index, Equities: S&P 500 Price, Commodities: S&P GSCI TR, Emerging Markets: MSCI Emerging Markets, Next 11: BNP Core 8 Next 11 Index. October 2011 to February 2011.
12 www.castlestonemanagement.com
Where does this fit in you portfolio*
Emerging Market Equities
Next 11 30%
GEM or BRIC 70%
Note: *This is based on Castlestone Management‟s view of Portfolio Planning. This should not be construed as advice. In planning your portfolio, please seek professional planning advice .
13 www.castlestonemanagement.com
What are the Next 11 Emerging Markets?
• Infrastructure growth • Improved healthcare and education systems • Increased productivity = less burden on economy • By product of this is PRODUCTIVITY
• Outperformance of equity market in countries with low levels of debt to GDP
• Further global & domestic investment • Improved corporate governance • Potential P/E multiple expansion
• Increased urbanisation • More integration with global economies • Property ownership • Development of independence
• Rising consumer class • Increased GDP per capita
Source: *Goldman Sachs ,Bloomberg & Castlestone Management Note: Past performance cannot be relied on as a guide to future performance.
14 www.castlestonemanagement.com
GEM vs S&P 500 – last decade
600%
MSCI Emerging Markets Index
500%
S&P 500
400%
300%
200%
100%
0% Oct 2001
Oct 2002
Source: Bloomberg & Castlestone Management
15 www.castlestonemanagement.com
Oct 2003
Oct 2004
Oct 2005
Oct 2006
Oct 2007
Oct 2008
Oct 2009
Oct 2010
Next 11 vs S&P 500 – last decade
800%
700%
S&P 500 Next 11 Index
600%
500%
400%
300%
200%
100%
0% Oct 2001
Oct 2002
Source: Bloomberg & Castlestone Management
16 www.castlestonemanagement.com
Oct 2003
Oct 2004
Oct 2005
Oct 2006
Oct 2007
Oct 2008
Oct 2009
Oct 2010
How have the Next 11 performed
Index/Country
Annualised Return 2001 – 2010**
N-11
+22%
BRIC
+20%
Emerging Markets
+16%
S&P 500
+2%
Topix 500
+2%
EUROSTOXX 600
+6%
This is your opportunity to achieve ‘BRIC-like returns’ a second time around
Source: Bloomberg & Castlestone Management. *Date range: December 31 st 2010 to September 29th 2010. **Date range: September 2001 to June 2010. N-11: Next-11 Core 8 Index, BRIC: MSCI BRIC Index, Emerging Markets: MSCI Emerging Markets Index TR Note: Past performance cannot be relied on as a guide to future performance.
17 www.castlestonemanagement.com
Index Weightings – Emerging Market diversification*
MSCI Emerging Markets Index
Next 11 Emerging Markets (Indicative Weightings) MSCI
Country
Next 11
0%
Bangladesh
3%
16%
Brazil
0%
17%
China
0%
1%
Egypt
6%
7%
India
0%
2%
Indonesia
18%
0%
Iran
0%**
13%
Korea
10%
4%
Mexico
28%
0%
Nigeria
4%
0%
Pakistan
3%
0%
Philippines
7%
7%
Russia
0%
7%
South Africa
0%
11%
Taiwan
0%
2%
Turkey
17%
0%
Vietnam
4%
Source: Bloomberg & Castlestone Management. As of July 2011. *Indicative, **0% because no ability to invest directly at present Note: Past performance cannot be relied on as a guide to future performance.
18 www.castlestonemanagement.com
How have the Next 11 performed in 2010
Index/Country
2010
2011 YTD*
Index/Country
2010
2011 YTD*
RTS Standard (Russia)
+19.1%
+8.22%
DSE General (Bangladesh)
+82.8%
-25.64%
MSCI Emerging Markets
+16.4%
-1.45%
TEPIX (Iran)
+68.2%
+23.5%
Bombay SE500 (India)
+16.4%
-9.19%
JCI (Indonesia)
+46.1%
-2.60%
S&P 500
+12.8%
+4.14%
PSEi (Philippines)
+37.6%
-7.74%
FTSE 100
+9.0%
+0.30%
Karachi 100 (Pakistan)
+28.1%
-3.94%
EURO STOXX 600
+8.6%
+0.36%
ISE Nat 100 (Turkey)
+24.9%
-1.85%
MSCI BRIC
+7.3%
+0.23%
Kopsi (Korea)
+21.9%
+0.15%
Bovespa (Brazil)
+1.0%
-2.56%
Mexico ICP
+20.0%
-4.35%
Hang Seng China Ent Index (China - HK)
-0.8%
+2.23%
NSE All Share (Nigeria)
+18.9%
+1.15%
Nikkei 225
-3.0%
-6.77%
Egypt Hermes
+15.7%
-27.35%
CSI 300 (China - Local)
-12.5%
+5.31%
-2.0%
-5.55%
Ho Chi Minh (Vietnam)
Source: Bloomberg & Castlestone Management. *Date range: December 31 st 2010 to February 28th 2011 **Date range: September 2001 to June 2010. N-11: Next-11 Core 8 Index, BRIC: MSCI BRIC Index, Emerging Markets: MSCI Emerging Markets Index TR Note: Past performance cannot be relied on as a guide to future performance.
19 www.castlestonemanagement.com
Investment perspective – breaking down the Next 11
10% Leader
65% Core
20-25% Frontier
0-5% Proto
Korea
Mexico
Egypt
Bangladesh
Indonesia
Vietnam
Iran
Turkey
Pakistan
Philippines
Nigeria
Wide Range of Investment Profiles Universe Focused on Core Countries
Source: Castlestone Management. Note: Past performance cannot be relied on as a guide to future performance.
20 www.castlestonemanagement.com
Conclusion
The concept was introduced by Goldman Sachs in 2005 as Goldman Sachs introduced BRIC in 2001 – second opportunity to achieve „BRIC-like returns‟ Geographic diversification within emerging markets – Next 11 is a complement to BRIC
Next 11 Emerging Markets enhances your Emerging Markets portfolio return We believe emerging market equities will outperform developed market equities over the next decade Our belief is that a diversified emerging markets portfolio should include 20 - 30% allocation to Next 11 emerging markets
Source: Bloomberg & Castlestone Management
21 www.castlestonemanagement.com
Addendum
22 www.castlestonemanagement.com
Investment team
Claudio Oliveira Head of Trading
Dmitry Zhuk Emerging Markets Equity Analyst
Fanfan Li Emerging Markets Trader
Robert Hunt Investment Manager
Source: Castlestone Management.
23 www.castlestonemanagement.com
Claudio joined Castlestone Management in April 2007 to provide fundamental research and trading execution. Prior to joining Castlestone Management, Claudio worked for Deutsche Bank in New York for four years as an analyst within the credit risk department. Claudio has a BA in Economics with a minor in Mathematics from Rutgers University.
Dmitry joined Castlestone Management in February 2011 to take the position of an emerging markets equity analyst. He has a generalist sector focus and is tasked with providing fundamental bottom-up company research and assisting with top-down macro analysis. Prior to Castlestone, Dmitry spent four years as an equity research analyst at Citigroup in London where he covered emerging markets Telecom and Media sectors. Dmitry holds an Honours Masters degree in Economics from the University of Edinburgh, UK. Fanfan joined Castlestone in May 2011 as a junior trader. Prior to joining Castlestone, Fanfan worked as a dealer at London Capital Group for four years gaining experience trading in an array of asset classes as well as facilitating expansion into Chinese markets. Fanfan received an Honours Masters degree in International Securities from the University of Reading. Robert is a director and on the investment committee of a number of BVI public professional and private funds. Robert joined Castlestone Management in 2006 and has carried out a number of functions across the business, starting initially in the position as Research Analyst and progressing towards an investment management role. Prior to this Robert undertook experience as a Portfolio Assistant at Thesis Asset Management Plc during his university placement year. He received a BA (Hons) in Financial Services from Bournemouth University, UK.
Investment philosophy
Fundamental Bottom-up: Buying companies, not tickers or markets - first and foremost fundamental equity analysis But keen attention to macro for two reasons: 1. 2.
Most attractive risk/rewards where there is a bottom-up company, combined with an attractive thematic exposure Avoid companies with very pertinent macro risks that may not be priced in, regardless of other attractive attributes
Long term Investment Horizon Sector Generalist, but bias away from specialised areas (e.g. Biotech)- benefit of broad global and sector awareness/view, rather than being pigeonholed to find the best absolute value wherever possible
Not benchmark/tracking error constrained Contrarian mindset- avoiding “hot stocks”- biggest risk in owning individual equities is a reversal of sentiment towards a name.
Note: This is based on Castlestone Management‟s view of Portfolio Planning. All content is subject to change at the Portfolio Manager‟s discretion.
24 www.castlestonemanagement.com
Investment philosophy
Focus upon 5: Unknown Unloved Undervalued Under-researched Under owned
All apply to Next 11 countries
Above combined with strong attention to valuation- but interpretation includes both „value‟ (i.e. cheap assets) and „GARP‟ (i.e. cheap growth) Concentration: circa 30 names
Approach applied consistently throughout all prior employment
Note: This is based on Castlestone Management‟s view of Portfolio Planning. All content is subject to change at the Portfolio Manager‟s discretion.
25 www.castlestonemanagement.com
Approach to risk management
Long biased philosophy- value is captured through identifying attractive companies as longs Derivatives used for efficient portfolio management, not value capture- primarily at the index level using futures- absolute return mindset and incentive structure
Market exposure will vary over time: 1. 2.
Primarily to avoid systemic risks at times of volatility- links in with broader Castlestone expertise in Macro analysis Owning a specific company does not require owning the underlying market.
Currencies generally left un-hedged when PM is agnostic - but reviewed especially where country concentration is high
Note: This is based on Castlestone Management‟s view of Portfolio Planning. All content is subject to change at the Portfolio Manager‟s discretion.
26 www.castlestonemanagement.com
Investment process
Universe Demarcation • Market capitalisation • Average daily value traded
Quant / Qual Screens Quantitative • Cheap relative or absolute valuation • Out of favour with analysts • Insider buying • 52 week low Qualitative • Respond to newsflow, e.g. Uncertainty providing market mispricing • Inflection points – e.g. Change in management or incentives
Execution Traders handle execution shortterm variance from PM indicated weightings allowed based on market movements, available flows
Portfolio Management • Ongoing monitoring • Continual rebalancing
Portfolio Construction • Decide weighting • How to fund purchase • Risk management: hedge currencies or business exposure
Fundamental / Valuation Snapshot • Attractive outlook? • Catalyst for change? • Valuation relative to history / market / peers? • Likely to be ~50% upside • Upside >3x downside
• • • •
Porters Five Forces SWOT Competitor analysis Management calibre / incentives • Risk assessment
• If not cheap / attractive on quick and dirty look / valuation – likely not a buy
Decision • Buy? • Not a buy?
Watchlist • Review on news flow • Set price alert to review decision regardless of no news
Note: This is based on Castlestone Management‟s view of Portfolio Planning. All content is subject to change at the Portfolio Manager‟s discretion.
27 www.castlestonemanagement.com
Rigorous Analysis
Valuation • • • •
Absolute Relative Potential downside Margin of safety?
Corporate Overview
Independently owned asset manager that providing investment management services based on foresight, appropriateness and with the aim of meeting long term investment objectives of its investors Founded in 1996 by Angus Murray, a former President of Macquarie Bank USA Inc. and Co-Head of the International Equity Department of NatWest Markets USA 55 employees , 9 investment professionals – 4 commodity focused, 3 emerging markets focused Over 400 partners around the world who understand and allocate to our funds; available via major life platforms
28 www.castlestonemanagement.com
Fund Focus & Awards
GLOBAL MACRO
COMMODITIES
“Index Constituent” Aliquot Gold Bullion March 2011
EMERGING MARKETS
“Index Constituent” Aliquot Gold Bullion October 2009
“Best International Sales Team” Castlestone Management Highly Commended May 2008
“European Performance Award” Porcupine Global Macro Plus Highly Commended May 2009
“Best Performing Global Macro Fund” Porcupine Global Macro Plus Finalist November 2007 & 2009
Source: Castlestone Management. Note: Morningstar rating refers to Aliquot Gold Bullion class A,C & Aliquot Precious Metals class D only. © [2010] Morningstar UK Limited. Overall rating as at 31/08/2010. All Rights Reserved. The information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, completely or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
29 www.castlestonemanagement.com
Global Reach Offices & representation in strategic locations across five continents London, UK Investment Team Legal & Compliance Marketing Sales
New York, USA
Europe*
Hong Kong
Dubai* British Virgin Islands Fund Manager: BVI Funds Investment Team
Latin America*
South Africa
Singapore
Note: Shares in Castlestone Management funds may not be offered or sold directly or indirectly in the United States nor may be held for the account or benefit of any U.S. person as defined in regulation S under the United States securities act of 1933 (as amended). Any reoffer or resale of any such shares in the United States or to U.S. persons may constitute a violation of U.S. law. *Representative offices.
30 www.castlestonemanagement.com
Important information
This document is intended for and directed at investment professionals and is not intended for retail customer use. This document is not offering to sell any product. Any transaction requires our subsequent formal agreement which will be subject to internal approvals and binding transaction documents. Castlestone Management (“We”) will not be liable for any use you make of any information in this document. We are not your advisor or fiduciary. We are not recommending or making any representations as to suitability of any product or the tax, legal or accounting treatment of any product. We are not responsible for information stated to be obtained or derived from third party sources. All opinions are given as of the date hereof and are subject to change. We are not obliged to inform you of any such changes. Any simulated performance data and/or past performance data contained herein is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Income from investments may fluctuate and investors may not recoup the amount originally invested. Any forward-looking statements concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Castlestone Management expressed or implied, are based on management's current expectations and assumptions, which may change without notice, and are no guarantee of future results, performance or events This document is confidential. No part of it may be reproduced, distributed or transmitted without Castlestone Management‟s written permission. Neither this document nor any copy of it may be distributed, directly or indirectly, in the United States of America or its territories or possessions (the “United States” or to any US Person as defined in Regulation S under the United States Securities Act of 1933 (as amended). Any failure to comply with these restrictions may constitute a violation of United States securities law. This is not exhaustive; other regional-specific wording may apply. If in doubt, please consult with Castlestone Management‟s Legal and Compliance department. Castlestone Management Limited is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the UK. Castlestone Management Limited is authorized by the Financial Services Board in South Africa. Castlestone Management Inc. is regulated by the British Virgin Islands Financial Services Commission. This scheme is not available for distribution in Singapore. This scheme has been entered into the List of Restricted Schemes by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under paragraph 2(3) of the Sixth Schedule to the Securities and Futures (Offers of Investments)(Collective Investment Schemes) Regulations 2009 for distribution to institutional and accredited investors. No invitation to the public in Hong Kong to buy or subscribe for any product is permitted to be made. You should consult your own attorney, business adviser and tax adviser as to legal, business, tax and related matters concerning any of the contents of this document. This document has not been delivered for registration to the Registrar of Companies in Hong Kong, its contents have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in Hong Kong, nor has the product been authorised by the Securities and Futures Commission. Accordingly, this document must not be issued, circulated or distributed in Hong Kong other than (1) in circumstances which do not constitute it as a “prospectus” as defined in the Companies Ordinance (Cap.32) or which do not constitute an offer to the public within the meaning of that ordinance, or (2) to professional investors as defined in the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Cap.571) and the Securities and Futures (Professional Investor) Rules made thereunder. Unless permitted by the securities laws of Hong Kong, no person may issue in Hong Kong, or have in its possession for issue in Hong Kong, this document or any other advertisement, invitation or document relating to any products other than to a professional investor as defined in the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Cap.571) and the Securities and Futures (Professional Investor) Rules made thereunder.” April 2011: 21/04/11
31 www.castlestonemanagement.com