New Zealand Economic Chart Pack
Key New Zealand Macroeconomic and Financial Market Graphs August 2016
New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – August 2016
Page 2
Contents Aggregate Output............................................................................................................................ 4 Prices.............................................................................................................................................. 5 Households ..................................................................................................................................... 6 Business ......................................................................................................................................... 7 Government .................................................................................................................................... 8 Taxation .......................................................................................................................................... 9 External Sector ............................................................................................................................. 10 Labour Market............................................................................................................................... 11 Housing Market ............................................................................................................................. 12 Financial Market ........................................................................................................................... 13 Indicators of Productive Capacity .................................................................................................. 14 Balance Sheet .............................................................................................................................. 15 Sectoral Saving ............................................................................................................................. 16 Ratios to GDP ............................................................................................................................... 17 Miscellaneous ............................................................................................................................... 18 International .................................................................................................................................. 19 Abbreviations ................................................................................................................................ 20
Data finalised 31 August 2016
New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – August 2016
Page 3
Aggregate Output Production GDP per Capita Growth
Production GDP Growth % 8
% 8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Quarterly % change (s.a.) Source: Statistics New Zealand
Annual average % change
% 6
% 6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Quarterly % change (s.a.) Source: Statistics New Zealand
-3
Annual average % change
Nominal GDP Growth
Tradable & Non-tradable Activity Index (Mar 1995Q1=100) 200
% 10
% 10
180
180
8
8
160
160
6
6
140
140
4
4
120
120
2
2
100
100
0
0
Index (Mar 1995Q1=100) 200
-2
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Direct tradable sector Indirect tradable sector
Direct non-tradable sector Indirect non-tradable sector
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Quarterly % change (s.a.) Source: Statistics New Zealand
Components of Production GDP
Components of Expenditure GDP .
Private Consumption
Agriculture, Fishing and Forestry Mining
Public Consumption
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste
Residential Investment
Manufacturing
Business Investment
Construction
Exports of Goods and Services
Wholesale, Retail and Accomodation
Imports of Goods and Services
Other services
Change in inventories
Unallocated/balancing Item
Balancing Item
Production GDP
Expenditure GDP
-0.1
Annual average % change
March 2016 quarter
.
March 2016 quarter
-2
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
% pt contribution
Source: Statistics New Zealand, The Treasury
New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – August 2016
0.6
0.7
0.8
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
% pt contribution
Source: Statistics New Zealand, The Treasury
Page 4
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Prices CPI Components
Consumers Price Index 6
Annual % change 8
5
5
6
6
4
4
4
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
1
1
0
0
0
0
-2
-2
-1
-4 -4 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
% 6
-1
%
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Quarterly % change Source: Statistics New Zealand
Annual % change
Annual % change 8
Tradable inflation Source: Statistics New Zealand
CPI Inflation & Pricing intentions
Non-tradable inflation
Inflation Expectations 6
% 4.0
% 4.0
50
5
3.5
3.5
40
4
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
Net % 60
Annual % change
30
3
20
2
10
1
0
0
-10 -1 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 ANZBO - pricing intentions CPI inflation (RHS)
0.0
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
0.0
RBNZ survey of expectations - one year ahead ANZBO - inflation expectations
QSBO - average selling price
Source: Statistics New Zealand, ANZ, NZIER
Source: RBNZ, ANZ, The Treasury
GDP Deflator
Consumption Deflator
% 8
% 8
% 5
% 5
6
6
4
4
4
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
0
0
1
1
-2
-2
0
0
-4
-1
-4
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Quarterly % change Source: Statistics New Zealand
Annual % change
New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – August 2016
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Quarterly % change Source: Statistics New Zealand
Annual % change
Page 5
-1
Households Real Private Consumption Growth
Real Core Retail Sales Growth
% 8
% 8
% 8
6
6
6
6
4
4
4
4
2
2
2
2
0
0
0
0
-2
-2
-2
-2
-4
-4
-4
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Quarterly % change Source: Statistics New Zealand
Annual average % change
%
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Quarterly % change Source: Statistics New Zealand
Nominal Retail Sales & Gross Earnings Growth
8
-4
Annual average % change
Car Registrations
Annual % change
10
000s per month 24
8
8
20
20
6
6
16
16
4
4
12
12
2
2
8
8
0
0
4
4
Annual % change 10
-2 -2 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
0 0 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Total registrations New cars
Core retail sales Total weekly gross earnings
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Source: Statistics New Zealand
International Travel
Consumer Confidence
000s per month (s.a.) 300
000s per month (s.a.) 300
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50 50 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Short term New Zealand resident departures Short term overseas visitor arrivals
Source: Statistics New Zealand
New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – August 2016
000s per month 24
Previously registered overseas
Index 150
Index 150
140
140
130
130
120
120
110
110
100
100
90
90
80
80
70 70 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Westpac Mcdermott Miller ANZ-Roy Morgan Source: Westpac McDermott Miller, ANZ-Roy Morgan
Page 6
Business Real Business Investment Growth
Net Operating Surplus & Company Tax
% 30
% 30
20
20
10
10
0
0
-10
-10
-20
-20
-30
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Quarterly % change (s.a.) Source: Statistics New Zealand
-30
Annual average % change
Annual average % change 30
12
20
8
10
4
0
0
-10
-4
-20
-8
-30
-12 -40 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Net Operating Surplus Company Tax (RHS) Source: The Treasury, Statistics New Zealand, Inland Revenue Department
Investment & Business Profitability Annual average % change 40
Annual average % change 16
Non-Residential Buildings Net % 20
Annual average % change 40
Annual average % change 40
30
10
30
30
20
0
20
20
10
-10
10
10 0
0
-20
0
-10
-30
-10
-10
-20
-40
-20
-20
-30
-50
-40 -60 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Real business investment Source: Statistics New Zealand, NZIER
Real non-residential building investment Value of non-residential consents
Profitability (RHS, advanced 2 qtrs)
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Firms’ Own Activity Outlook
General Business Confidence
Net % 60
Net % 60
40
40
20
20
0
0
-20
-20
-40
-40
-60 -60 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 QSBO
-30 -30 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Net % 80
New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – August 2016
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
-20
-20
-40
-40
-60
-60
-80 -80 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
ANZBO
Source: NZIER, ANZ
Net %
QSBO
ANZBO
Source: NZIER, ANZ
Page 7
Government Real Public Consumption Growth (ex-Military)
Real Non-Market Investment growth
% 16
% 16
12
12
8
8
4
4
0
0
-4
-4
-8
-8
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Quarterly % change (s.a.) Source: Statistics New Zealand
Annual average % change
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
-10
-10
-20
-20
-30
-30
-40
-40
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Annual average % change
Tax to GDP Ratio % of GDP 50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0 0 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Gross sovereign-issued debt Source: The Treasury
% 50
Quarterly % change (s.a.) Source: Statistics New Zealand
Government Debt to GDP Ratio (June years) % of GDP 50
% 50
Net core Crown debt
% of GDP 35
% of GDP
35
34
34
33
33
32
32
31
31
30
30
29
29
28 28 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Total tax revenue (4 quarter moving average) Source: The Treasury
Fiscal Balance (June years)
Implied Company & Personal Income Tax Ratio % of GDP 8
% 40
% 40
4
4
36
36
0
0
32
32
-4
-4
28
28
-8
-8
24
24
20
20 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
% of GDP 8
-12 -12 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Operating balance
OBEGAL
Source: The Treasury
New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – August 2016
* Company tax has been lagged by 4 quarters
Company tax to corporate profit * Source deductions to compensation of employees ratio
Source: Statistics New Zealand, The Treasury
Page 8
Taxation Source Deductions & Compensation of Employees
Total Tax Receipts & Nominal GDP Annual average % change 12
Annual average % change 12
Annual average % change 12
Annual average % change
12
8
8
8
8
4
4
4
4
0
0
0
0
-4
-4
-4
-4
-8
-8
-8
-8
-12 -12 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
-12 -12 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Total tax receipts Source: The Treasury, Statistics New Zealand
Source deductions Compensation of employees Source: The Treasury, Statistics New Zealand
Nominal GDP
Corporate Tax & Nominal GDP Annual average % change 50
Total GST & Nominal Consumption Annual average % change 9
40
8
30
7
20
6
10
5
0
4
-10
3
-20
2
-30
1
Annual average % change 20
Annual average % change 20
16
16
12
12
8
8
4
4
0
0
-40 0 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
-4 -4 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Corporate tax Nominal GDP (RHS) Source: The Treasury, Statistics New Zealand
GST Nominal private and public consumption Source: The Treasury, Statistics New Zealand
Resident Withholding Tax on Interest
Customs GST & Nominal Goods Imports
Annual % change 100
Annual % change 100
75
75
50
50
25
25
0
0
Annual average % change 40 30
30
20
20
10
10 0
-25
-25
-50
-50
0
-75
-75
-10
-100 -100 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Quarterly resident withholding tax receipts 90 day bank bill yield (advanced 2 qtrs)
Source: The Treasury, RBNZ
New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – August 2016
Annual average % change 40
-10
-20 -20 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Customs GST Nominal goods imports Source: The Treasury, Statistics New Zealand
Page 9
External Sector SNA Export Growth Annual average % change 25
SNA Import Growth Annual average % change 25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10 -10 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Annual average % change 20 15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
-20 -20 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Goods & services export values Goods & services export volumes
Goods & services import values Goods & services import volumes
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Current Account
OTI Terms of Trade
4 quarter running total % of GDP 4
Annual average % change 20
% of GDP 4
Index (June 2002=1000) 1,500
Index (June 2002=1000) 1,500
1,400
1,400
1,300
1,300
1,200
1,200
1,100
1,100
1,000
1,000
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-6
900
900
800
800
-8 -8 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Goods balance Income balances
Services balance Current account balance
700 700 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Terms of Trade Source: Statistics New Zealand
Composition of Export Volume Growth
Composition of Import Volume Growth (ex-Military)
Annual average % change 30
Annual average % change 30
Import prices
Annual average % change 40
Export prices
Annual average % change 40
25
25
30
30
20
20
20
20
15
15
10
10
10
10
0
0
5
5
-10
-10
0
0
-20
-20
-5
-5
-30
-30
-10 -10 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Primary goods Other goods
Manufacturing goods Services
Source: Statistics New Zealand
New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – August 2016
-40 -40 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Capital goods Consumption goods
Intermediate goods Services
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Page 10
Labour Market Unemployment & Participation Rate % (s.a.) 9
Employment & Labour Force Growth 64
Annual average % change 5
8
65
4
4
7
66
3
3
6
67
2
2
1
1
5
68
0
0
4
69
-1
-1
% (s.a.)
Annual average % change 5
3 70 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
-2 -2 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Unemployment rate Source: Statistics New Zealand
Employment Growth Source: Statistics New Zealand
Participation rate (RHS inverse)
Labour Productivity (GDP divided by hours worked) % 4
International Migration
%
4
3
3
2 1
000s per month (s.a.) 12 10
10 8
2
6
6
1
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-4
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
-3
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Employment Intentions
Wage Growth Net % 40
-4
Net permanent & long-term migration Permanent & long-term arrivals Permanent & long-term departures
Quarterly % change (s.a.) Annual average % change Source: Statistics New Zealand, The Treasury
Net % 40
000s per month (s.a.) 12
8
0
-3
Labour Force Growth
Annual % change 6
Annual % change 6
30
30
5
5
20
20
4
4
10
10
3
3
0
0
2
2
1
1
-10
-10
-20
-20
-30
-30
-40 -40 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 QSBO
ANZBO
Source: NZIER, ANZ
New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – August 2016
0 0 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 LCI salary & wage rates (non-adjusted) QES - average hourly earnings LCI salary & wage rates (quality-adjusted)
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Page 11
Housing Market Real Residential Investment Growth
House Prices
% 30
% 30
20
20
10
10
0
0
-10
-10
-20
-20
-30
-30
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Quarterly % change (s.a.) Source: Statistics New Zealand
Annual average % change
Annual % change 30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10 -10 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 REINZ - house price index Source: REINZ, QV
House Sales & Building Consents 000s per month (s.a.) 14
Annual % change 30
House Sales & Days to Sell 000s per month (s.a.) 3.5
12
3.0
10
2.5
8
2.0
6
1.5
4
1.0
2 0.5 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
000s per month (s.a.) 12
28
10
32
9
36
8
40
7
44
6
48
5
52
4
56
3 60 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 REINZ - dwelling sales REINZ - median days to sell (RHS inverse)
Source: Statistics New Zealand, REINZ
Source: REINZ
Affordability (based on REINZ median house price)
Migration & House Prices
x gross annual household income 7.0
35 30 25 20
25 20
40
15
5.5
30
10
5.0
20
5
10
0
0
-5
4.5 * Based on 2yr fixed rate & 20% deposit on median house price
4.0
3.5 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Average mortgage payment (including principal) * Median house price to income (RHS)
Source: Statistics New Zealand, RBNZ, REINZ, The Treasury
New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – August 2016
Annual % change 30
50
6.0
40
Annual net migration (000s) 70 60
6.5
45
Days (s.a.) 24
11
REINZ - dwelling sales Building consents - dwellings (RHS)
% of gross household income 50
QV house price index
-10
-10
-20 -15 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Net permanent & long term migration REINZ house price index (RHS)
Source: Statistics New Zealand, REINZ
Page 12
Financial Market Wholesale Interest Rates
Retail Mortgage Rates
% 12
%
10
12
% 12
% 12
10
11
11
10
10
9
9
8
8
8
8
6
6
4
4
7
7
2
6
6
5
5
2
0 0 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Official cash rate (OCR) 10 year government bond yield
90 day bank bill yield
4 4 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Source: RBNZ
First mortgage floating rate Source: RBNZ
Trade-Weighted Exchange Rate Index
Equity Market Indices
Index 85
Index 85
Index (Jan 1995=100) 600
First mortgage 2 year fixed rate
Index (Jan 1995=100) 600
80
80
500
500
75
75
400
400
70
70
300
300
65
65
60
60
200
200
55
55
100
100
50
50
0 0 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
45 45 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
NZ (NZX50 index) US (S&P 500) Japan (Nikkei)
TWI
Source: RBNZ
Source: Haver Analytics
Long-Term Interest Rate Differentials
Exchange Rates Basis points 300
Basis points 300 200
200
100
100
0
0
-100
-100
UK (FTSE 100) Australia (All Ordinaries) Germany (DAX 30)
NZD/USD 0.9
NZD/AUD 1.00
0.8
0.95
0.7
0.90
0.6
0.85
0.5
0.80
0.4
0.75
-200 -200 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
0.3 0.70 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
New Zealand/United States Source: RBNZ, Haver Analytics
Source: RBNZ
New Zealand/Australia
New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – August 2016
NZD / USD
NZD / AUD (RHS)
Page 13
Indicators of Productive Capacity Output Gap
Capacity Utilisation
% 8
%
%
8
% 96
6
6
94
94
4
4
2
2
92
92
0
0
90
90
-2
-2
88
88
-4
-4
86
86
-6
-6
-8
-8 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
84
84
HP filter Kalman filter
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
MV filter Small macro model
Economy wide Manufacturers
Source: The Treasury
Source: NZIER
Capacity Utilisation
Demand Pressures
% 96
%
96
96
Builders
% 90
% 90
80
80
94
94
92
92
90
90
70
70
88
88
60
60
86
86
84
84
50
50
82 82 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Exporters
40 40 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Non-exporters
Sales as a limiting factor
Source: NZIER
Source: NZIER
Resource Pressures
Difficulty Finding Labour
% 30
% 30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0 0 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Labour as a limiting factor Finance as a limiting factor
Capacity as a limiting factor
Source: NZIER
New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – August 2016
Net % 80 60
% (s.a.) 10 Less difficult
9
40
8
20
7
0
6
-20
5
-40
4
-60
3 More difficult
-80 2 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Difficulty finding skilled labour Unemployment rate (RHS)
Difficulty finding unskilled labour
Source: Statistics New Zealand, NZIER
Page 14
Balance Sheet Household Debt to Asset Ratios
Household Debt & Servicing
% 30
%
%
30
% of disposable income 180
16 25
25
160 14
20
140
20 12
15
15
120 10
10
100
10 8
5
80
5 6
0
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Housing loan to value ratio Total debt to asset ratio
0
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Other debt to financial assets ratio
Household debt (RHS) Debt servicing (% of disposable income)
Source: RBNZ, The Treasury
Source: RBNZ, The Treasury
Household Assets & Liabilities
Household Equity
% of disposable income 700
% of disposable income 700
% of disposable income 700
60
Effective interest rate
% of disposable income 700
600
600
600
600
500
500
500
500
400
400
400
400
300
300
300
300
200
200
200
200
100
100
100
100
0
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Housing assets Financial assets
0
0
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Financial liabilities Net worth
Housing equity Net worth
Source: RBNZ, The Treasury
Source: RBNZ, The Treasury
Net Foreign Assets
Credit Growth
% of GDP -60
% of GDP -60
-65
-65
-70
-70
-75
-75
-80
-80
-85
-85 Figures prior to June 2000 qtr
-90 interpolated from annual series -90 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Annual % change 30
New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – August 2016
Financial equity
Annual % change
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10 -10 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Net international investment position (NIIP) NIIP excluding Canterbury reinsurance assets
Source: Statistics New Zealand, The Treasury
0
Total Agriculture
Households Business
Source: RBNZ
Page 15
Sectoral Saving Net Household Saving (March years)
Net Business Saving (March years)
% of GDP 8
% of GDP 8
% of GDP 8
% of GDP
8
6
6
6
6
4
4
4
4
2
2
2
2
0
0
0
0
-2
-2
-2
-2
-4
-4
-4
-4
-6
-6
-6
-6
-8 -8 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
-8 -8 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
Net household saving Source: Statistics New Zealand, The Treasury
Source: The Treasury
Net General Government Saving (March years)
Net National Saving (March years)
% of GDP 8
% of GDP 8
% of GDP 8
Net business saving
% of GDP 8
6
6
6
6
4
4
4
4
2
2
2
2
0
0
0
0
-2
-2
-2
-2
-4
-4
-4
-4
-6
-6
-6
-6
-8 -8 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
-8 -8 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
Net public saving Source: Statistics New Zealand, The Treasury
Net national saving Source: Statistics New Zealand, The Treasury
Gross Saving & Investment Flows
Net Household Saving
4 quarter running total % of GDP 30
% of GDP 30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
% of disposable income 8
% of disposable income 8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0 -2
0
0
-2
-5
-5
-4
-4
-10
-6
-6
-10
96
98
00
02
04
06
Gross national saving Current account balance
08
10
12
14
Gross Investment
Source: Statistics New Zealand
New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – August 2016
16
-8 -8 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 Net household saving Source: Statistics New Zealand, The Treasury
Page 16
Ratios to GDP Private Consumption
Public Consumption
% of GDP 62
% of GDP 62
61
61
60
60
59
59
58
58
57
57
56
56
55
55
54 54 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Nominal
Real
% of GDP 23 22
22
21
21
20
20
19
19
18
18
17
17
16 16 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Residential Investment
% of GDP 23
Nominal
Real
Other Investment % of GDP
8
% of GDP 20
7
7
18
18
6
6
16
16
5
5
14
14
4
4
12
12
10
10
% of GDP 8
3 3 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Nominal
Real
88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Nominal Imports & Exports
% of GDP 20
Nominal
Real
Real Imports & Exports
% of GDP 40
% of GDP 40
36
36
32
32
28
28
24
24
% of GDP 35
% of GDP 35
33
33
30
30
28
28
25
25
23
23
20
20
18
18
20 20 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
15 15 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
Exports Source: Statistics New Zealand
Exports Source: Statistics New Zealand
Imports
New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – August 2016
Imports
Page 17
Miscellaneous Southern Oscillation Index
Soil Moisture Deficit
Index 30
Index 30 La Nina
20
20
10
10
0
0
-10
-10
-20
-20
El Nino
-30 -30 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Source: NIWA
Southern Oscillation Index Source: www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au
Electricity Generation
Electricity Price
GWh 3000
GWh 3000
2500
2500
2000
2000
1500
1500
1000
1000
500
500
0 0 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
$/MWh 320
$/MWh 320
280
280
240
240
200
200
160
160
120
120
80
80
40
40
0 0 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Hydro electricity generation Thermal electricity generation
Average monthly electricity price
Source: Electricity Authority
Source: WITS Free To Air
Trading Partner Growth
Purchasing Managers Indices
% 5
%
5
Forecast
60
55
55
50
50
45
45
40
40
1
35
35
0
30
30
4
3
3
2
2
1 0 96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
Annual average % change Source: IMF, Consensus Economics
New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – August 2016
16
18
Index 65
60
4
-1
Index 65
-1 20
25 03
04
05
06
07
08
UK China
09
10
11
12
13
Japan Euro Area
Source: Haver Analytics
Page 18
14 US Aus
15
16
25
International Real GDP Growth
CPI Inflation
Annual average % change 8
Annual average % change 8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-6
-8 -8 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Australia United Kingdom
United States Euro area
Annual % change 8
Annual % change
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4 -4 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Japan New Zealand
Australia United Kingdom
United States Euro area
Source: Statistics New Zealand, Haver Analytics
Source: Statistics New Zealand, Haver Analytics
Official Interest Rates
Short-term Interest Rates
Japan New Zealand
% 12
% 12
New Zealand
10
10
Australia
8
8
Canada
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
As at 30/08/2016
.
United Kingdom United States Japan
-2 -2 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Euro Area 0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0 %
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
Australia United Kingdom
2.0
Source: RBNZ, Haver Analytics
Source: RBNZ, Haver Analytics
Unemployment Rate
Current Account % (s.a.) 14
% (s.a.) 14 12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2 2 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Australia United Kingdom
United States Euro area
Source: Statistics New Zealand, Haver Analytics
New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – August 2016
Japan New Zealand
United States Euro area
% of GDP 6
Japan New Zealand
% of GDP
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6
-6
-8 -8 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Australia United Kingdom
United States Euro area
Source: Statistics New Zealand, Haver Analytics
Page 19
Japan New Zealand
Abbreviations CPI
Consumers Price Index
GDP
Gross Domestic Product
LCI
Labour Cost Index
ANZBO
ANZ Business Outlook
NZIER
New Zealand Institute of Economic Research
OBEGAL
Operating Balance before Gains and Losses
OTI
Overseas Trade Index
QES
Quarterly Employment Survey
QSBO
Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion
QV
Quotable Value Ltd
RBNZ
Reserve Bank of New Zealand
REINZ
Real Estate Institute of New Zealand
S.A.
Seasonally Adjusted
SNA
System of National Accounts
New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – August 2016
Page 20