New Zealand Economic Chart Pack. Key New Zealand Macroeconomic and Financial Market Graphs

New Zealand Economic Chart Pack Key New Zealand Macroeconomic and Financial Market Graphs August 2016 New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – August 2016...
Author: Anis Wilkerson
2 downloads 0 Views 950KB Size
New Zealand Economic Chart Pack

Key New Zealand Macroeconomic and Financial Market Graphs August 2016

New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – August 2016

Page 2

Contents Aggregate Output............................................................................................................................ 4 Prices.............................................................................................................................................. 5 Households ..................................................................................................................................... 6 Business ......................................................................................................................................... 7 Government .................................................................................................................................... 8 Taxation .......................................................................................................................................... 9 External Sector ............................................................................................................................. 10 Labour Market............................................................................................................................... 11 Housing Market ............................................................................................................................. 12 Financial Market ........................................................................................................................... 13 Indicators of Productive Capacity .................................................................................................. 14 Balance Sheet .............................................................................................................................. 15 Sectoral Saving ............................................................................................................................. 16 Ratios to GDP ............................................................................................................................... 17 Miscellaneous ............................................................................................................................... 18 International .................................................................................................................................. 19 Abbreviations ................................................................................................................................ 20

Data finalised 31 August 2016

New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – August 2016

Page 3

Aggregate Output Production GDP per Capita Growth

Production GDP Growth % 8

% 8

6

6

4

4

2

2

0

0

-2

-2

-4

-4

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Quarterly % change (s.a.) Source: Statistics New Zealand

Annual average % change

% 6

% 6

5

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

0

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

-3

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Quarterly % change (s.a.) Source: Statistics New Zealand

-3

Annual average % change

Nominal GDP Growth

Tradable & Non-tradable Activity Index (Mar 1995Q1=100) 200

% 10

% 10

180

180

8

8

160

160

6

6

140

140

4

4

120

120

2

2

100

100

0

0

Index (Mar 1995Q1=100) 200

-2

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Direct tradable sector Indirect tradable sector

Direct non-tradable sector Indirect non-tradable sector

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Source: Statistics New Zealand

Quarterly % change (s.a.) Source: Statistics New Zealand

Components of Production GDP

Components of Expenditure GDP .

Private Consumption

Agriculture, Fishing and Forestry Mining

Public Consumption

Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste

Residential Investment

Manufacturing

Business Investment

Construction

Exports of Goods and Services

Wholesale, Retail and Accomodation

Imports of Goods and Services

Other services

Change in inventories

Unallocated/balancing Item

Balancing Item

Production GDP

Expenditure GDP

-0.1

Annual average % change

March 2016 quarter

.

March 2016 quarter

-2

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

% pt contribution

Source: Statistics New Zealand, The Treasury

New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – August 2016

0.6

0.7

0.8

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0.0

0.1

% pt contribution

Source: Statistics New Zealand, The Treasury

Page 4

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

Prices CPI Components

Consumers Price Index 6

Annual % change 8

5

5

6

6

4

4

4

4

3

3

2

2

2

2

1

1

0

0

0

0

-2

-2

-1

-4 -4 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% 6

-1

%

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Quarterly % change Source: Statistics New Zealand

Annual % change

Annual % change 8

Tradable inflation Source: Statistics New Zealand

CPI Inflation & Pricing intentions

Non-tradable inflation

Inflation Expectations 6

% 4.0

% 4.0

50

5

3.5

3.5

40

4

3.0

3.0

2.5

2.5

2.0

2.0

1.5

1.5

1.0

1.0

0.5

0.5

Net % 60

Annual % change

30

3

20

2

10

1

0

0

-10 -1 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 ANZBO - pricing intentions CPI inflation (RHS)

0.0

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

0.0

RBNZ survey of expectations - one year ahead ANZBO - inflation expectations

QSBO - average selling price

Source: Statistics New Zealand, ANZ, NZIER

Source: RBNZ, ANZ, The Treasury

GDP Deflator

Consumption Deflator

% 8

% 8

% 5

% 5

6

6

4

4

4

4

3

3

2

2

2

2

0

0

1

1

-2

-2

0

0

-4

-1

-4

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Quarterly % change Source: Statistics New Zealand

Annual % change

New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – August 2016

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Quarterly % change Source: Statistics New Zealand

Annual % change

Page 5

-1

Households Real Private Consumption Growth

Real Core Retail Sales Growth

% 8

% 8

% 8

6

6

6

6

4

4

4

4

2

2

2

2

0

0

0

0

-2

-2

-2

-2

-4

-4

-4

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Quarterly % change Source: Statistics New Zealand

Annual average % change

%

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Quarterly % change Source: Statistics New Zealand

Nominal Retail Sales & Gross Earnings Growth

8

-4

Annual average % change

Car Registrations

Annual % change

10

000s per month 24

8

8

20

20

6

6

16

16

4

4

12

12

2

2

8

8

0

0

4

4

Annual % change 10

-2 -2 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

0 0 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Total registrations New cars

Core retail sales Total weekly gross earnings

Source: Statistics New Zealand

Source: Statistics New Zealand

International Travel

Consumer Confidence

000s per month (s.a.) 300

000s per month (s.a.) 300

250

250

200

200

150

150

100

100

50 50 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Short term New Zealand resident departures Short term overseas visitor arrivals

Source: Statistics New Zealand

New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – August 2016

000s per month 24

Previously registered overseas

Index 150

Index 150

140

140

130

130

120

120

110

110

100

100

90

90

80

80

70 70 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Westpac Mcdermott Miller ANZ-Roy Morgan Source: Westpac McDermott Miller, ANZ-Roy Morgan

Page 6

Business Real Business Investment Growth

Net Operating Surplus & Company Tax

% 30

% 30

20

20

10

10

0

0

-10

-10

-20

-20

-30

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Quarterly % change (s.a.) Source: Statistics New Zealand

-30

Annual average % change

Annual average % change 30

12

20

8

10

4

0

0

-10

-4

-20

-8

-30

-12 -40 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Net Operating Surplus Company Tax (RHS) Source: The Treasury, Statistics New Zealand, Inland Revenue Department

Investment & Business Profitability Annual average % change 40

Annual average % change 16

Non-Residential Buildings Net % 20

Annual average % change 40

Annual average % change 40

30

10

30

30

20

0

20

20

10

-10

10

10 0

0

-20

0

-10

-30

-10

-10

-20

-40

-20

-20

-30

-50

-40 -60 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Real business investment Source: Statistics New Zealand, NZIER

Real non-residential building investment Value of non-residential consents

Profitability (RHS, advanced 2 qtrs)

Source: Statistics New Zealand

Firms’ Own Activity Outlook

General Business Confidence

Net % 60

Net % 60

40

40

20

20

0

0

-20

-20

-40

-40

-60 -60 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 QSBO

-30 -30 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Net % 80

New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – August 2016

80

60

60

40

40

20

20

0

0

-20

-20

-40

-40

-60

-60

-80 -80 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

ANZBO

Source: NZIER, ANZ

Net %

QSBO

ANZBO

Source: NZIER, ANZ

Page 7

Government Real Public Consumption Growth (ex-Military)

Real Non-Market Investment growth

% 16

% 16

12

12

8

8

4

4

0

0

-4

-4

-8

-8

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Quarterly % change (s.a.) Source: Statistics New Zealand

Annual average % change

40

40

30

30

20

20

10

10

0

0

-10

-10

-20

-20

-30

-30

-40

-40

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Annual average % change

Tax to GDP Ratio % of GDP 50

40

40

30

30

20

20

10

10

0 0 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Gross sovereign-issued debt Source: The Treasury

% 50

Quarterly % change (s.a.) Source: Statistics New Zealand

Government Debt to GDP Ratio (June years) % of GDP 50

% 50

Net core Crown debt

% of GDP 35

% of GDP

35

34

34

33

33

32

32

31

31

30

30

29

29

28 28 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Total tax revenue (4 quarter moving average) Source: The Treasury

Fiscal Balance (June years)

Implied Company & Personal Income Tax Ratio % of GDP 8

% 40

% 40

4

4

36

36

0

0

32

32

-4

-4

28

28

-8

-8

24

24

20

20 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

% of GDP 8

-12 -12 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Operating balance

OBEGAL

Source: The Treasury

New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – August 2016

* Company tax has been lagged by 4 quarters

Company tax to corporate profit * Source deductions to compensation of employees ratio

Source: Statistics New Zealand, The Treasury

Page 8

Taxation Source Deductions & Compensation of Employees

Total Tax Receipts & Nominal GDP Annual average % change 12

Annual average % change 12

Annual average % change 12

Annual average % change

12

8

8

8

8

4

4

4

4

0

0

0

0

-4

-4

-4

-4

-8

-8

-8

-8

-12 -12 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

-12 -12 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Total tax receipts Source: The Treasury, Statistics New Zealand

Source deductions Compensation of employees Source: The Treasury, Statistics New Zealand

Nominal GDP

Corporate Tax & Nominal GDP Annual average % change 50

Total GST & Nominal Consumption Annual average % change 9

40

8

30

7

20

6

10

5

0

4

-10

3

-20

2

-30

1

Annual average % change 20

Annual average % change 20

16

16

12

12

8

8

4

4

0

0

-40 0 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

-4 -4 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Corporate tax Nominal GDP (RHS) Source: The Treasury, Statistics New Zealand

GST Nominal private and public consumption Source: The Treasury, Statistics New Zealand

Resident Withholding Tax on Interest

Customs GST & Nominal Goods Imports

Annual % change 100

Annual % change 100

75

75

50

50

25

25

0

0

Annual average % change 40 30

30

20

20

10

10 0

-25

-25

-50

-50

0

-75

-75

-10

-100 -100 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Quarterly resident withholding tax receipts 90 day bank bill yield (advanced 2 qtrs)

Source: The Treasury, RBNZ

New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – August 2016

Annual average % change 40

-10

-20 -20 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Customs GST Nominal goods imports Source: The Treasury, Statistics New Zealand

Page 9

External Sector SNA Export Growth Annual average % change 25

SNA Import Growth Annual average % change 25

20

20

15

15

10

10

5

5

0

0

-5

-5

-10 -10 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Annual average % change 20 15

15

10

10

5

5

0

0

-5

-5

-10

-10

-15

-15

-20 -20 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Goods & services export values Goods & services export volumes

Goods & services import values Goods & services import volumes

Source: Statistics New Zealand

Source: Statistics New Zealand

Current Account

OTI Terms of Trade

4 quarter running total % of GDP 4

Annual average % change 20

% of GDP 4

Index (June 2002=1000) 1,500

Index (June 2002=1000) 1,500

1,400

1,400

1,300

1,300

1,200

1,200

1,100

1,100

1,000

1,000

2

2

0

0

-2

-2

-4

-4

-6

-6

900

900

800

800

-8 -8 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Goods balance Income balances

Services balance Current account balance

700 700 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Source: Statistics New Zealand

Terms of Trade Source: Statistics New Zealand

Composition of Export Volume Growth

Composition of Import Volume Growth (ex-Military)

Annual average % change 30

Annual average % change 30

Import prices

Annual average % change 40

Export prices

Annual average % change 40

25

25

30

30

20

20

20

20

15

15

10

10

10

10

0

0

5

5

-10

-10

0

0

-20

-20

-5

-5

-30

-30

-10 -10 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Primary goods Other goods

Manufacturing goods Services

Source: Statistics New Zealand

New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – August 2016

-40 -40 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Capital goods Consumption goods

Intermediate goods Services

Source: Statistics New Zealand

Page 10

Labour Market Unemployment & Participation Rate % (s.a.) 9

Employment & Labour Force Growth 64

Annual average % change 5

8

65

4

4

7

66

3

3

6

67

2

2

1

1

5

68

0

0

4

69

-1

-1

% (s.a.)

Annual average % change 5

3 70 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

-2 -2 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Unemployment rate Source: Statistics New Zealand

Employment Growth Source: Statistics New Zealand

Participation rate (RHS inverse)

Labour Productivity (GDP divided by hours worked) % 4

International Migration

%

4

3

3

2 1

000s per month (s.a.) 12 10

10 8

2

6

6

1

4

4

2

2

0

0

-2

-2

0

-1

-1

-2

-2

-4

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

-3

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Source: Statistics New Zealand

Employment Intentions

Wage Growth Net % 40

-4

Net permanent & long-term migration Permanent & long-term arrivals Permanent & long-term departures

Quarterly % change (s.a.) Annual average % change Source: Statistics New Zealand, The Treasury

Net % 40

000s per month (s.a.) 12

8

0

-3

Labour Force Growth

Annual % change 6

Annual % change 6

30

30

5

5

20

20

4

4

10

10

3

3

0

0

2

2

1

1

-10

-10

-20

-20

-30

-30

-40 -40 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 QSBO

ANZBO

Source: NZIER, ANZ

New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – August 2016

0 0 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 LCI salary & wage rates (non-adjusted) QES - average hourly earnings LCI salary & wage rates (quality-adjusted)

Source: Statistics New Zealand

Page 11

Housing Market Real Residential Investment Growth

House Prices

% 30

% 30

20

20

10

10

0

0

-10

-10

-20

-20

-30

-30

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Quarterly % change (s.a.) Source: Statistics New Zealand

Annual average % change

Annual % change 30

25

25

20

20

15

15

10

10

5

5

0

0

-5

-5

-10 -10 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 REINZ - house price index Source: REINZ, QV

House Sales & Building Consents 000s per month (s.a.) 14

Annual % change 30

House Sales & Days to Sell 000s per month (s.a.) 3.5

12

3.0

10

2.5

8

2.0

6

1.5

4

1.0

2 0.5 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

000s per month (s.a.) 12

28

10

32

9

36

8

40

7

44

6

48

5

52

4

56

3 60 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 REINZ - dwelling sales REINZ - median days to sell (RHS inverse)

Source: Statistics New Zealand, REINZ

Source: REINZ

Affordability (based on REINZ median house price)

Migration & House Prices

x gross annual household income 7.0

35 30 25 20

25 20

40

15

5.5

30

10

5.0

20

5

10

0

0

-5

4.5 * Based on 2yr fixed rate & 20% deposit on median house price

4.0

3.5 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Average mortgage payment (including principal) * Median house price to income (RHS)

Source: Statistics New Zealand, RBNZ, REINZ, The Treasury

New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – August 2016

Annual % change 30

50

6.0

40

Annual net migration (000s) 70 60

6.5

45

Days (s.a.) 24

11

REINZ - dwelling sales Building consents - dwellings (RHS)

% of gross household income 50

QV house price index

-10

-10

-20 -15 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Net permanent & long term migration REINZ house price index (RHS)

Source: Statistics New Zealand, REINZ

Page 12

Financial Market Wholesale Interest Rates

Retail Mortgage Rates

% 12

%

10

12

% 12

% 12

10

11

11

10

10

9

9

8

8

8

8

6

6

4

4

7

7

2

6

6

5

5

2

0 0 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Official cash rate (OCR) 10 year government bond yield

90 day bank bill yield

4 4 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Source: RBNZ

First mortgage floating rate Source: RBNZ

Trade-Weighted Exchange Rate Index

Equity Market Indices

Index 85

Index 85

Index (Jan 1995=100) 600

First mortgage 2 year fixed rate

Index (Jan 1995=100) 600

80

80

500

500

75

75

400

400

70

70

300

300

65

65

60

60

200

200

55

55

100

100

50

50

0 0 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

45 45 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

NZ (NZX50 index) US (S&P 500) Japan (Nikkei)

TWI

Source: RBNZ

Source: Haver Analytics

Long-Term Interest Rate Differentials

Exchange Rates Basis points 300

Basis points 300 200

200

100

100

0

0

-100

-100

UK (FTSE 100) Australia (All Ordinaries) Germany (DAX 30)

NZD/USD 0.9

NZD/AUD 1.00

0.8

0.95

0.7

0.90

0.6

0.85

0.5

0.80

0.4

0.75

-200 -200 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

0.3 0.70 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

New Zealand/United States Source: RBNZ, Haver Analytics

Source: RBNZ

New Zealand/Australia

New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – August 2016

NZD / USD

NZD / AUD (RHS)

Page 13

Indicators of Productive Capacity Output Gap

Capacity Utilisation

% 8

%

%

8

% 96

6

6

94

94

4

4

2

2

92

92

0

0

90

90

-2

-2

88

88

-4

-4

86

86

-6

-6

-8

-8 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

84

84

HP filter Kalman filter

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

MV filter Small macro model

Economy wide Manufacturers

Source: The Treasury

Source: NZIER

Capacity Utilisation

Demand Pressures

% 96

%

96

96

Builders

% 90

% 90

80

80

94

94

92

92

90

90

70

70

88

88

60

60

86

86

84

84

50

50

82 82 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Exporters

40 40 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Non-exporters

Sales as a limiting factor

Source: NZIER

Source: NZIER

Resource Pressures

Difficulty Finding Labour

% 30

% 30

25

25

20

20

15

15

10

10

5

5

0 0 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Labour as a limiting factor Finance as a limiting factor

Capacity as a limiting factor

Source: NZIER

New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – August 2016

Net % 80 60

% (s.a.) 10 Less difficult

9

40

8

20

7

0

6

-20

5

-40

4

-60

3 More difficult

-80 2 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Difficulty finding skilled labour Unemployment rate (RHS)

Difficulty finding unskilled labour

Source: Statistics New Zealand, NZIER

Page 14

Balance Sheet Household Debt to Asset Ratios

Household Debt & Servicing

% 30

%

%

30

% of disposable income 180

16 25

25

160 14

20

140

20 12

15

15

120 10

10

100

10 8

5

80

5 6

0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Housing loan to value ratio Total debt to asset ratio

0

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Other debt to financial assets ratio

Household debt (RHS) Debt servicing (% of disposable income)

Source: RBNZ, The Treasury

Source: RBNZ, The Treasury

Household Assets & Liabilities

Household Equity

% of disposable income 700

% of disposable income 700

% of disposable income 700

60

Effective interest rate

% of disposable income 700

600

600

600

600

500

500

500

500

400

400

400

400

300

300

300

300

200

200

200

200

100

100

100

100

0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Housing assets Financial assets

0

0

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Financial liabilities Net worth

Housing equity Net worth

Source: RBNZ, The Treasury

Source: RBNZ, The Treasury

Net Foreign Assets

Credit Growth

% of GDP -60

% of GDP -60

-65

-65

-70

-70

-75

-75

-80

-80

-85

-85 Figures prior to June 2000 qtr

-90 interpolated from annual series -90 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Annual % change 30

New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – August 2016

Financial equity

Annual % change

30

25

25

20

20

15

15

10

10

5

5

0

0

-5

-5

-10 -10 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Net international investment position (NIIP) NIIP excluding Canterbury reinsurance assets

Source: Statistics New Zealand, The Treasury

0

Total Agriculture

Households Business

Source: RBNZ

Page 15

Sectoral Saving Net Household Saving (March years)

Net Business Saving (March years)

% of GDP 8

% of GDP 8

% of GDP 8

% of GDP

8

6

6

6

6

4

4

4

4

2

2

2

2

0

0

0

0

-2

-2

-2

-2

-4

-4

-4

-4

-6

-6

-6

-6

-8 -8 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

-8 -8 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

Net household saving Source: Statistics New Zealand, The Treasury

Source: The Treasury

Net General Government Saving (March years)

Net National Saving (March years)

% of GDP 8

% of GDP 8

% of GDP 8

Net business saving

% of GDP 8

6

6

6

6

4

4

4

4

2

2

2

2

0

0

0

0

-2

-2

-2

-2

-4

-4

-4

-4

-6

-6

-6

-6

-8 -8 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

-8 -8 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

Net public saving Source: Statistics New Zealand, The Treasury

Net national saving Source: Statistics New Zealand, The Treasury

Gross Saving & Investment Flows

Net Household Saving

4 quarter running total % of GDP 30

% of GDP 30

25

25

20

20

15

15

10

10

5

5

% of disposable income 8

% of disposable income 8

6

6

4

4

2

2

0

0 -2

0

0

-2

-5

-5

-4

-4

-10

-6

-6

-10

96

98

00

02

04

06

Gross national saving Current account balance

08

10

12

14

Gross Investment

Source: Statistics New Zealand

New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – August 2016

16

-8 -8 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 Net household saving Source: Statistics New Zealand, The Treasury

Page 16

Ratios to GDP Private Consumption

Public Consumption

% of GDP 62

% of GDP 62

61

61

60

60

59

59

58

58

57

57

56

56

55

55

54 54 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

Source: Statistics New Zealand

Nominal

Real

% of GDP 23 22

22

21

21

20

20

19

19

18

18

17

17

16 16 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

Source: Statistics New Zealand

Residential Investment

% of GDP 23

Nominal

Real

Other Investment % of GDP

8

% of GDP 20

7

7

18

18

6

6

16

16

5

5

14

14

4

4

12

12

10

10

% of GDP 8

3 3 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

Source: Statistics New Zealand

Nominal

Real

88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

Source: Statistics New Zealand

Nominal Imports & Exports

% of GDP 20

Nominal

Real

Real Imports & Exports

% of GDP 40

% of GDP 40

36

36

32

32

28

28

24

24

% of GDP 35

% of GDP 35

33

33

30

30

28

28

25

25

23

23

20

20

18

18

20 20 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

15 15 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

Exports Source: Statistics New Zealand

Exports Source: Statistics New Zealand

Imports

New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – August 2016

Imports

Page 17

Miscellaneous Southern Oscillation Index

Soil Moisture Deficit

Index 30

Index 30 La Nina

20

20

10

10

0

0

-10

-10

-20

-20

El Nino

-30 -30 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Source: NIWA

Southern Oscillation Index Source: www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au

Electricity Generation

Electricity Price

GWh 3000

GWh 3000

2500

2500

2000

2000

1500

1500

1000

1000

500

500

0 0 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

$/MWh 320

$/MWh 320

280

280

240

240

200

200

160

160

120

120

80

80

40

40

0 0 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Hydro electricity generation Thermal electricity generation

Average monthly electricity price

Source: Electricity Authority

Source: WITS Free To Air

Trading Partner Growth

Purchasing Managers Indices

% 5

%

5

Forecast

60

55

55

50

50

45

45

40

40

1

35

35

0

30

30

4

3

3

2

2

1 0 96

98

00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

Annual average % change Source: IMF, Consensus Economics

New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – August 2016

16

18

Index 65

60

4

-1

Index 65

-1 20

25 03

04

05

06

07

08

UK China

09

10

11

12

13

Japan Euro Area

Source: Haver Analytics

Page 18

14 US Aus

15

16

25

International Real GDP Growth

CPI Inflation

Annual average % change 8

Annual average % change 8

6

6

4

4

2

2

0

0

-2

-2

-4

-4

-6

-6

-8 -8 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Australia United Kingdom

United States Euro area

Annual % change 8

Annual % change

8

6

6

4

4

2

2

0

0

-2

-2

-4 -4 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Japan New Zealand

Australia United Kingdom

United States Euro area

Source: Statistics New Zealand, Haver Analytics

Source: Statistics New Zealand, Haver Analytics

Official Interest Rates

Short-term Interest Rates

Japan New Zealand

% 12

% 12

New Zealand

10

10

Australia

8

8

Canada

6

6

4

4

2

2

0

0

As at 30/08/2016

.

United Kingdom United States Japan

-2 -2 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Euro Area 0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0 %

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Australia United Kingdom

2.0

Source: RBNZ, Haver Analytics

Source: RBNZ, Haver Analytics

Unemployment Rate

Current Account % (s.a.) 14

% (s.a.) 14 12

12

10

10

8

8

6

6

4

4

2 2 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Australia United Kingdom

United States Euro area

Source: Statistics New Zealand, Haver Analytics

New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – August 2016

Japan New Zealand

United States Euro area

% of GDP 6

Japan New Zealand

% of GDP

6

4

4

2

2

0

0

-2

-2

-4

-4

-6

-6

-8 -8 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Australia United Kingdom

United States Euro area

Source: Statistics New Zealand, Haver Analytics

Page 19

Japan New Zealand

Abbreviations CPI

Consumers Price Index

GDP

Gross Domestic Product

LCI

Labour Cost Index

ANZBO

ANZ Business Outlook

NZIER

New Zealand Institute of Economic Research

OBEGAL

Operating Balance before Gains and Losses

OTI

Overseas Trade Index

QES

Quarterly Employment Survey

QSBO

Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion

QV

Quotable Value Ltd

RBNZ

Reserve Bank of New Zealand

REINZ

Real Estate Institute of New Zealand

S.A.

Seasonally Adjusted

SNA

System of National Accounts

New Zealand Economic Chart Pack – August 2016

Page 20