New market model based on price decoupling Låtefossen SINTEF Energy Research Arild Lote Henden 21.05.2015 Brukermøte Produksjonsplanlegging
Technolog...
New market model based on price decoupling Låtefossen SINTEF Energy Research Arild Lote Henden 21.05.2015 Brukermøte Produksjonsplanlegging
Technology for a better society
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ProdMarket ProdRisk as Market Model
Technology for a better society
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Outline •
Background
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Method
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Results
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Future work
Technology for a better society
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What is ProdMarket? • Internally financed project •
2014 to 2017
• Goal: Use optimization to calculate individual water values • New market model • Test a new iterative concept: • • • •
Each producer optimizes their profit assuming they are price taker Each producer sends a supply curve Market clearing Many similarities to how the power market works
Technology for a better society
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Outline •
Background
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Method
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Results
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Future work
Technology for a better society
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Principle in the market model
Price forecast (scenarios)
Watercourse 1
- Stochastic price and inflow - Water modules in watercourse 1 Local seasonal/long-term scheduling, ProdRisk
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The whole power market Watercourse 1 to n Thermal production Demand Others Market simulation
Watercourse 2
- Stochastic price and inflow - Water modules in watercourse 2 Local seasonal/long-term scheduling, ProdRisk
Cuts/water values (supply function)
Watercourse n
- Stochastic price and inflow - Water modules in watercourse n Local seasonal/long-term scheduling, ProdRisk
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Nordic
• Power system • Current model does not include the transmission system • System price
Technology for a better society
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Nordic
• Power system • Current model does not include the transmission system • System price
Decoupling
• Optimize each watercourse with ProdRisk • Stochastic inflow • Stochastic price
Technology for a better society
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Nordic
• Power system • Current model does not include the transmission system • System price
Decoupling
• Optimize each watercourse with ProdRisk • Stochastic inflow • Stochastic price Merging • Cut from each watercourse, supply curve • Simulation
Technology for a better society
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Nordic
• Power system • Current model does not include the transmission system • System price
Decoupling
• Optimize each watercourse with ProdRisk • Stochastic inflow • Stochastic price Merging • Cut from each watercourse, supply curve • Simulation New lap Technology for a better society
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Outline •
Background
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Method
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Results
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Future work
Technology for a better society
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Case study – case description • •
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A small Nordic system 50 water modules, reservoirs • Three watercourses • 2 064 MW production capacity • 6 000 GWh or 4 260 Mm3 reservoir capacity 31 733 GWh on 11 Contractual obligations 107 Price depending market No restriction on transmission capacity
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4 number of load periods in a week 156 weeks in simulation period 50 years in the inflow statistics
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High risk for rationing Technology for a better society
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Average power values • ProdRisk and EOPS as Market Models • 51 to 57 is iteration with ProdMarket
Technology for a better society
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Average power values
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Power values ProdMarket
EOPS
Technology for a better society
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Reservoir level –
Percentiles for all reservoirs aggregated EOPS
Reservoir level [GWh]
Reservoir level [GWh]
ProdMarket
Technology for a better society
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Reservoir level –
Percentiles for Vatnedal reservoir EOPS
Reservoir level [GWh]
Reservoir level [GWh]
ProdMarket
Technology for a better society
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Overview results – EOPS vs ProdMarket Model
Hydro production [GWh]
EOPS
26913,5
New Market model Differences
Spillage [GWh]
Reservoir changes [GWh]
Total Costs [MNOK]
1 666,6
- 235,6
1 248,4
26686,7
1 683,3
7,1
1 172,1
- 226,8
- 16,7
242,7
76,3
No revenue from hydropower
Technology for a better society
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Challenges • • • •
Iteration loop Convergence Stochastic price model Limited numbers of scenarios
• Time usage • CPLEX and COIN • Parallelization at several levels • Memory usage
Technology for a better society
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Outline •
Background
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Method
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Results
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Future work
Technology for a better society
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Future work •
Issues • Convergence • Limited numbers of scenarios • Stochastic price model
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Possibility to handle large data set • 1 500 hydro plants, 200 water course, hourly time resolution, 1000 cuts or more for each water course • Reduce time • Memory usage
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Include transmission capacity
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Tests • Hydro pump storage • Compared to similar models (EMPS, SOVN) Technology for a better society
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Reference picture •
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Left picture on the front slide: • http://ezhestnesk.ezpub01.byte.no/Energi-Miljoe/Paradigmeskifte-for-stroemproduksjonen • 04.02.2015 • InnoDesign: Truls Berg Right picture on the front slide: • http://www.lyse.no/omlyse/ • 04.02.2015 • Lyse Picture at the second slide: • http://kpx.no/index.php?route=product/product&product_id=106 • 13.05.2015 • Kipox AS Picture at the third slide: • http://www.oldtidskundskab.dk/METODE/metode.html • 11.05.2015 • Peter Sand
