NAFTA Powertrain Outlook Efficiency Driving New Engine and Transmission Production Opportunities
David Petrovski Principal Analyst, North America Powertrain Forecasting April 17, 2013
Agenda • Drivers for Change • Efficiency Opportunities
• Production Opportunities • Summary
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Evolutionary Change • Automotive technology development is an evolutionary process,
influenced by:
ENERGY ECONOMICS
LEGISLATION/FISCAL POLICY
CONSUMER DESIRE/RESPONSE
An integrated approach is key – all stakeholder need to act together to reduce CO2 emissions (infrastructure, public authorities, consumers, OEMs( as this is the most costefficient way of achieving improvement –Ford Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
INDUSTRY CAPABILITY
LEGISLATION/FISCAL POLICY
Global Convergence Drives Scale
35.5 MPG
54.5 MPG
Source:
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ENERGY ECONOMICS
Relatively “Cheap” fuel in comparison…
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ENERGY ECONOMICS
Forecasted Prices Remain Relatively Low
~$4/gal
Source: IHS CERA – Feb 2013 Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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CONSUMER RESPONSE
Will Consumers Accept higher Cost for Efficiency? % of Disposable Income Spend on Fuel vs. High Fuel Efficient Vehicles 7.0%
4.5%
6.0%
4.0% 5.0%
3.5% 3.0%
4.0%
2.5% 3.0%
2.0% 1.5%
2.0%
1.0%
1.0%
0.5% 2011
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
0.0% 1975
0.0%
Market Share of Diesels and Hybrids
% Disposable Income Spend on Fuel
5.0%
• As spending levels increased in recent years, consumers elect to purchase high fuel efficient options
such as hybrids and diesels) • Technology penetration of diesels and hybrids begins to drop as gasoline prices drop Sources: Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Bureau of Economic Analysis www.bea.gov EPA: Fuel Economy Trends
CONSUMER RESPONSE
Consumer demands continued… “Because future fuel savings are inherently uncertain, consumers will discount them heavily relative to certain initial costs.” (How Consumers Value Fuel Economy: A Literature Review, Oakridge National Lab for EPA, March 24, 2010)
“Consumers want fuel efficiency … if it is free. 95% of customers are pragmatic, 5% are green” (Mike Jackson, CEO, Auto Nation, October 7, 2012)
“There are large differences, even among comprehensive, high quality studies, in estimates of the incremental retail price equivalent of technology that achieves major reductions in vehicle fuel consumption.” (National Petroleum Council, Advancing Technology for America’s Transportation Future, August 1, 2012) Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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INDUSTRY CAPABILITIES
Competing Priorities? Industry must weight different risks while trying to comply with new standards Midterm review uncertainty
Technology performance
Unemployment rate Warranty cost and recall liability
Technology cost
Technology development
Consumer finance Fuel price uncertainty California ZEV Mandate
Safety Consumer demand
Competitive risk Net Upstream CO2 Emissions 9
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Agenda • Drivers for Change • Efficiency Opportunities
• Production Opportunities • Summary
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Vehicle Energy Loss Review…
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Tremendous Opportunities Exist for Efficiency Improvements…
68%
9%
23%
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Transmission Only Improvement… 6%
Standby Idle
Pump/Hydraulics 3%
Accessories
Vehicle Energy Loss
Torque Converter 68%
6%
ICE
Transmission & D/L
Drag losses Seals, bearings, gears Differential
8%
Aero
5%
Rolling Resistance
4%
Braking
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Variable displ pumps Low Leak Solenoids Viscous churning losses New Fluids Active Warm-up Cooling
NOTE: Not mean to be an exhaustive list
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Future Fuel Economy Improvement Devices US Fuel Economy Improving Device and Cost-1 (MY2017) Fuel Economy Improve Ratio (%)
60 P2 Hybrid
50
Engine 2-mode Hybrid
40 30
IMA Hybrid V6→L4 Downsizing
Diesel With SCR
Transmission Power-split Hybrid
20
Electrification
10
Note) NHTSA AppendixFDraft_Joint_Technical_Support_Document (2011Nov) and created by IHS
0
Total Cost for MY2017 (Direct Manufacturing cost + Indirect cost) Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Fuel Economy Improve Ratio and its cost are basically based on Large Car. When no data for Large Car, using other vehicle data. Engine devices are based on the effect for L4 engine.
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Technology Cost vs. Benefit US Fuel Economy Improving Technology and Cost--2 (MY2017) Fuel Economy Improve Ratio (%)
8 7
24bar With Cooled EGR Aggressive Shift Logic
20
6
DEAC 6AT→8AT
4AT→ 6DCT(Dry)
5
High Efficiency Gearbox
DCP
4 3
27bar With Cooled EGR
25
FR1
DVVL
SGDI
Transmission
10 Electrification
5 1
Early Torque Converter Lockup
0
Stop/Start (Belt) Stop/Start
0
Total Cost for MY2017 (Direct Manufacturing cost + Indirect cost) Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Engine
18bar
5MT →6MT
2
V6→L4 Downsizing
CVVL
FR2
ICP
15
24bar
Agenda • Drivers for Change • Efficiency Opportunities
• Production Opportunities • Summary
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
Engine Output by Country
25% 20% United States
5%
Mexico
0% 2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Transmission Output by Country
25%
14
20%
12 10
15%
United States
8
10%
6 4
5%
2
Mexico
0
0% 2000
2002
2004
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2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
% Share Mexico
Millions
15% 10%
2000
16
30%
% Share Mexico
Millions
Powertrain Production Outlook
Engine Production Outlook
Millions
Output Variance by OEM Δ2020–2012 18 16 0.7
0.8
14 0.5
12
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.1
0.2
Others
-0.05
0.5
10
Contribution to Growth ‘12-’20 8 6
15.3
11.7
4
Mazda GM Hyundai 6% 14% 12% R/N 9%
2 0 2012 Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Toyota 19%
Fiat 12%
Honda 23%
2020
Transmission Production Outlook Millions
Output Variance by OEM Δ2020–2012 18 16 14
0.4
12
0.6
0.3
0.2
0.9
0.2
0.6
Others
-0.4
0.4
10
Contribution to Growth ‘12-’20 8 6
15.0 11.8
4
ZF 17%
Ford 18%
Hyundai 7%
2 0 2012 Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
GM 12%
Jatco 25%
Fiat 11% 2020
North American Engine Opportunities… MFG
PEAK COMMENTS VOLUME
PLATFORM
SOP
Fiat SGE Hurricane Pentastar Duratec HE
TBD 2015-16 2015 2015
TBD ~500k ~800k ~400k
Dragon
2016
TBD
Nano
2014
~300k
SGE
2014
~700k
HFV6
2016
~800k
New-L (AP2)
2014
~350k
Mazda-Small
2014
~150k
Localized prod. of 1.5L/2.0L in Salamanca,MEX
New 4-cyl
2016
~250k
New 2.0L engine for Mexico, likely turbo + DI
2015-16 2015
~200k ~500k
New Turbo + DI version of AR platform, 2.0L 3.5L V6 Upgrade program adds DI
2012
~500k+
1.8L & 2.0L Turbo, Launched in Silao, expect vol inc.
AR GR EA888 Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Fire replacement? New 2.0L 4-cylinder turbo engine Upgrade program for 3.2L/3.6L Localize from Valencia,Spain to Cleveland,Ohio Potential 2.4M global, no N.A. production, but could affect SIGMA and DURATEC HE All new small V6 turbo DI, 2.7L/2.9L Global engine program, 2.7M global, 1.0L L3-1.5L L4 Upgrade program for 3.0L/3.6L Honda AP3 program cancelled, 1.5L AP2 could benefit
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Detroit 3 Transmission Opportunities… MFG
TYPE
PROGRAM
FWD RWD
FWD
RWD
FWD
RWD
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DESIGN
SOP
PEAK VOLUME
9HP28/48
A9
2013
~1,6M
8HP 45
A8
now
~450k
6F15
A6
TBD
~150k
9F-MID
A9
2017
~1.0M
9F50/55
A9
TBD
~300k
HF35
EVT
now
~150k
10R60/80
A10
2016
~900k
GF9
A9
2016
~1.2M
9T70/75
A9
TBD
~500k
X39F
EVT
2015
~125k
X44F
DCT7
2015
~250k
8L45/90
A8
2014
~550k
10L45/90
A10
~2016/7
~800k
Localization potential if volumes rise
Transmission Opportunities… MFG
TYPE FWD
FWD RWD FWD RWD FWD RWD
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PROGRAM
DESIGN
SOP
PEAK VOLUME
XZXA LL-CVT TC-DCT SM-CVT 2nd A6GF1 A8LF2 A8MF1/2 10AT JF015E JF016E/17E
A10 CVT DCT8 CVT A6 A8 A8 A10 CVT CVT
2016 now ~2016 ~2014 ~2015 ~2016 ~2016 TBD ~2015 ~2017
~400k ~500k ~150k ~500k ~300k ~350k ~400k TBD ~350k ~1.0M
W9A400/700
A9
2016
~200k
New K311
CVT
TBD
~375k
G001
A8
~2015
~1.0M
TL-80SN
A8
TBD
Localization potential if volumes rise
~100K
Transmission Opportunities… MFG
TYPE
PROGRAM
FWD
FW6A
FWD
DQ200? DQ250?
FWD
RWD
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DESIGN
SOP
PEAK
A6
TBD
~200k
DCT7
TBD
TBD
9HP48 (EP2)
A9
~2013/14
~800k
8HP 70
A8
now
~400k
Localization potential if volumes rise
Agenda • Drivers for Change • Efficiency Opportunities
• Production Opportunities • Summary
Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
24
Summary • Energy security (fuel efficiency) and environmental (clean air) legislation
provide unprecedented drivers for change • Entire vehicle system optimization needs to be the focus to meet
increasing stringent fuel economy and emissions standards • Light weighting has a compounding effect • The “sweet spot:” Optimal powertrains will balance engine and transmission flexibility
• Various degrees of hybridization from start-stop through battery electric vehicles • Modularity; Parts integration and system cost reductions
• Consistent growth in North America vehicle production predicated on
strong utilization, co-location of output to offset risk and exports • Overall engine and transmission production volumes to return to robust levels driven
by localization • Numerous new opportunities exist as technology proliferates the engine and
transmission portfolio Copyright © 2012 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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Thank You for Your Participation!
David Petrovski Principal Analyst, North America Powertrain Forecasting IHS Automotive
[email protected] 248-465-2828