2016 Annual Conference October 26-27, 2016 Orlando, Florida
Presented by:
Jonathan M. Berger Vice President Aerospace & MRO Advisory
[email protected]
MRO Market Update & Industry Trends 0
Today’s Agenda Bizarro Aviation
The “CRABS” Meet the Frackers These are the Good Old Days Follow the Money Amazon the Air Cargo Disruptor March of the Middle East Titans A New Golden Age of Aircraft Cabin Interiors
MRO & OEM Alternative Material Forecast 1
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“Bizarro Aviation”
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Four external macro-economic forces are having a significant impact on the aviation industry and the MRO supply chain
The “CRABS”
Source: ICF analysis
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The dramatic increase in oil & gas market supply and reduced demand for commodities has led to a strong US Dollar
The “CRABS”: Countries with economies that are heavily dependent on commodity exports Global Currency Exchange Rates vs USD % Value Change, September 2014 – September 2016
10% Russian Ruble -37.6%
FOREX Impact Partially offsets the positive impact of low fuel costs for operators Increases the cost of dollar based flight hour agreements (and parts/material in general)
Cost of labor for in-country MROs is cheaper driving up margins for US dollar based contracts Buying/leasing aircraft becomes more expensive
Brazilian Real -24.6%
S. African Rand -19.1%
Can Dollars -15.3%
Aus Dollars -12.5%
Euro -11.7%
Indian Rupee -7.8%
Chinese Yuan -7.8%
0%
-10%
-20%
S
A
B
-30%
-40%
C
R
-50%
Source: USForex, ICF analysis
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Commercial aircraft OEM production backlog remains at historical record levels driven by:
Commercial Aircraft OEM Production Backlog
Order Backlog
Backlog/ % Active Fleet
16,000
70%
Emerging market growth
14,000
60%
Low interest rates
12,000
Previously high oil and commodity prices
10,000
Introduction of new technology aircraft/engines
50% 40%
8,000 30% 6,000 4,000 2,000 0
Source: CAPA, ICF Analysis
20%
10% 0%
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Low fuel costs appear to be reversing aircraft retirements trends
1,200
3.5%
Industry Impact:
1,000
3.0%
MRO Suppliers - Positive: Increased spend on older airframes & engines Surplus Market - Negative: Reduced part-out “feed stock” - OEMs: Improved new part sales - Distributors: Improved used part values / pricing - Operators: Increased material costs
Commercial Air Transport Annual Aircraft Retirements % Installed Fleet
# Retirements
Retirement as % of installed fleet
800
2.5% 2.0%
600 1.5% 400
1.0% 2000-2009 Average: 473
200
0.5% 1991-1999 Average: 203
0
Source: CAPA, Airline Monitor, ICF analysis
0.0%
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Airline return on invested capital (ROIC) is clearly correlated with the drop in fuel costs
Fuel Price as a % of Airline Operating Expenses % of Airline Operating Expenses
Crude Oil Price/BBL
40%
120 100
30% 80 20%
60 36% 28%
10%
22% 17%
0%
Source: IATA, ICF Analysis
30%
28%
28%
31%
33%
33%
32% 28%
40 20%
20 0
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Airline return on invested capital (ROIC) is clearly correlated with the drop in fuel costs
Fuel Price and Global Airline Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) Jet Fuel Price ($/barrel)
Airline ROIC (%)
$140 $120
12.0%
Jet Fuel Price
10.0%
$100
8.0%
$$$
$80
6.0% $60 $40
4.0%
Airline ROIC
$20
2.0%
$0
0.0%
Source: IATA, ICF Analysis
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Driven by low fuel costs and consolidation, airline the industry is on target to achieve record profitability in 2016 of almost $40B USD
These are the “good old days: - for some airlines… Global Airline Profitability, 1996 - 2016F $USD Billions $40
$39.4B Africa, ($0.5B) Latin America, $0.1B
$30 Middle East, $1.6B
$20
Asia Pacific, $7.8B
$10
Europe, $7.5B
$0
North America, $22.9B
-$10 -$20 -$30
Source: IATA, ICF analysis
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However, profit margin improvement has been largely limited to carriers in North America
…but not all – many airlines continue to struggle Global Airline EBIT Margin by Region 20.0%
2008
15.4%
15.0%
2012
10.0% 5.0%
2016F
8.4%
3.4%
5.6%
4.7%
2.3% 0.1% 0.7%
0.0%
3.0% 2.8%
2.6% 1.0%
-0.4%-1.1% -0.9%
-1.8%
-5.0%
1.5%
-4.7%
-10.0%
Source: IATA, ICF Analysis
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Brexit has clearly had an impact on European airline stock performance; specifically UK based carriers
Share Performance of European Airlines Since Brexit 23 June 2016 – 13 October 2016 Easy Jet, -41.5% IAG, -28.1%
Air France-KLM, 24.8% Wizz, -23.2% Norwegian, -16.5% Ryan Air, -16.2% Lufthansa, -15.2% SAS, -6.3%
-50%
Source: Company websites
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
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Follow the Money: Airlines are spending their hard earned profits in three primary areas
Airline Profit Spend Analysis Debt Repayments 16%
1. Labor ~ 20%: Profit sharing Wage increases
2. Capex ~ 38%: Fleet renewal & cabin upgrades
Stock BuyBack & Dividends 26%
Other capex 10%
Investors, 42% Labor, 20% Capex, 38%
Facilities, offices, lounges Equity partner investments
Profit Sharing 15%
3. Investors ~ 42%: Stock buy-backs Dividends
Debt repayment
Equity Investments 5%
Source: Company Reports, ICF Analysis
Fleet 23%
Wage Increases 5%
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After positive signs in 2014, air cargo supply continues to exceed demand
Global Freight Traffic (FTK) and Capacity Growth (AFTK) Year-Over-Year Percent Change 8%
Traffic (FTK)
Capacity (AFTK) 6%
6.3%
6.0%
5.4% 5.0%
4%
6.3%
(- $$$)
3.7% 3.0%
2%
2.3% 0.4%
2.1%
0.6%
0%
-0.9% -2%
Source: IATA, ICF Analysis
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Amazon is very well positioned to lead a major disruption of the air cargo industry
Amazon’s Growing Revenue & Shipping Costs $B USD
Shipping Costs as a Percentage of Revenue
Amazon Quarterly Revenue
$40
14%
$35
12%
$30 $25
10% 8%
$20 $15 $10
6% 4%
$5
2%
$0
0%
Source: Amazon SEC Filings
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March of the Middle East Titans:
European Secondary Airports Average Number of Seats per Departure in 2016 500
Middle East carriers have been very effective in capturing valuable business passenger traffic from European secondary airports
Gulf Carriers
Non-Gulf Carriers
450
408 400
400
400
400
394
400
370
363
343
350
306 300 250 200 150
180 148 128
163
146 121
149 117
135
149
100
“…Lufthansa’s Frankfurt hub has lost nearly a 3rd of its market share on routes between Europe and Asia since 2005, with more than three million people now flying annually via Gulf hubs” – The Economist Source: OAG Data, ICF Analysis
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Trend Watch: A New Golden Age of Aircraft Cabin Interiors
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Modifications growth is driven by airlines seeking differentiation in the cabin and customer experience
Commercial Air Transport Modifications Forecast $USD Billions $8 $7
MRO modification market growth drivers include: Premium lie-flat seats are now the minimum standard Premium economy Wi-fi, on-board connectivity
$6
AD/SB** PTF Conversions* Painting Avionics Upgrades Interiors
$7.4B $0.5 $0.4 $0.5
CAGR 3.6% 0.0%
3.7%
$1.1 $5 $4 $3
6.9%
$4.4B $0.3 $0.4 $0.4
5.9%
$0.6
$4.9
Coming soon: ADS-B Mod program
$2
Capacity (ASM/K) increase
$1
$2.7
$0
5.3% Avg. 2015
Modifications demand includes labor and material spend *Passenger-To-Freighter Conversions **Airworthiness Directives / Service Bulletins Source: ICF analysis, constant 2015 US$
2025 17
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Cabin “densification” has emerged as cost effective strategy for airlines to increase capacity and drive bottom line growth Cabin Upgrades: Slim seats
2015 - 2025 Capacity Bridge
6.2T
2015 ASMs
84%
Fleet Growth
Longer Stage Lengths
Example: Delta A320 Interior Modification Program
Total = 150 Seats
Total = 164 Seats
12 Seats
16 Seats
18 Seats
18 Seats
120 Seats
130 Seats
8%
Slim lavatories Slim galleys
Increased Seat Density
8%
Slim coat closets 8.8T
2025 ASMs
0
2
4
6
8
10
Available Seat-Miles (ASMs), Trillions New seats, outlets, IFE, overhead bins Source: ICF analysis, delta.com
Space-saving galleys to add a row of seats 18
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MRO Forecast
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The current commercial air transport fleet consists of over 27K aircraft; over half are narrowbody aircraft
2015 Global Commercial Air Transport Fleet
Middle East
Regional Jet
14%
Narrowbody Jet
Latin America
North America
5% 5% 8%
Turboprop
14%
27,114 Aircraft
31%
27,114 Aircraft
53% Europe
25%
19% Widebody Jet
27% Asia Pacific
By Aircraft Type
Source: CAPA 2015
By Global Region
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The combination of strong air travel demand and the need to replace ageing aircraft will drive fleet growth at a healthy 3.4% annually
10 Year Global Air Transport Fleet Growth
# Aircraft
40,000 35,000 30,000
Africa Middle East Latin America Europe Asia Pacific North America
CAGR
37,900 6% 8%
5.1% 5.3% 3.8%
27,100
25,000
5% 8%
20,000
25%
15,000
23%
2.5%
32%
5.2%
26%
1.6%
27% 10,000 5,000
31%
0
3.4% Avg. 2015
Source: ICF analysis: CAPA 2015
2025 21
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Current commercial air transport MRO demand is $64.3B; with Asia equivalent to North America and Europe in market size
2015 Commercial Air Transport Global MRO Demand
Africa
Modifications
Airframe
7%
Latin America
Engines
North America
6% 4%
Middle East
8%
14%
29%
40%
$64.3B 17%
$64.3B Europe
Line
22%
26%
28% Asia Pacific
Components
By MRO Segment Source: ICF analysis; Forecast in 2015 $USD, exclusive of inflation
By Global Region 22
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The global MRO market is expected to grow by 4.1% per annum to $96B by 2025
10 Year Global Commercial Air Transport MRO Demand Growth
$USD Billions $100 $90 $80
Engine and component MRO markets remain the largest segments
$70
Modifications market will see the strongest growth (e.g. interiors, connectivity)
$50
Airframe market slows due to reduced man-hour intensity and increased check intervals as new fleets are introduced
$30
Modifications Airframe Line Component Engine
$64.3B
$96.0B
CAGR 5.3%
13%
2.8%
16%
3.6%
22%
4.3%
41%
4.4%
$60
14% 17% $40
22%
$20 $10
40%
$0
4.1% Avg. 2015
Source: ICF analysis; Forecast in 2015 $USD, exclusive of inflation
2025 23
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There two primary reasons operators are aggressively seeking non-OEM supplied parts;
Three alternatives to purchasing OEM-supplied parts: Surplus
1. Cost savings
Three types of surplus material:
2. Part availability
1. Used Serviceable Material (USM) 2. New Material 3. Used, unserviceable material
Lower Source: ICF analysis
DER Repair
DER (Designated Engineering Representatives), FAA approved engineers who can approve technical data for repairs and modifications outside the CMM Design Organization Approval (DOA), a blanket approval for an MRO organization to develop internal repairs
Perceived Risk
PMA
PMA (Parts Manufacturer Approval) is approval granted by the FAA to a non-OEM manufacturer of aircraft parts
Two types of PMA: 1.
Licensed
2.
Competitive
Higher 24
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The alternative material market is concentrated on the back half of mature aircraft lifecycle (1725 years old aircraft) and early sunset aircraft
SUNSET
MATURE
GROWTH
ERJ-140 MD11
CRJ-7/9/1000 A330
ERJ-170/190
A320* (Old)
737 NG
737-3/4/500 A320* (New)
777-2LR/3ER
A300-600/310
747-400 A340
CRJ-1/2/400
777
767
757
A380 MD80 SSJ 100
Alternative Material
747-8 787
A300
747-1/2/300 DC10
A350
737-1/200
A320neo
0
Bubble size proportional to MRO spend
10
Limited OEM Alternatives Source: ICF analysis
Years since Entry into Service
Growth Phase
25
* New: CFM56-5B / V2500-A5 / PW6000 Old: CFM56-5A / V2500-A1
Healthy OEM Alternative Market 25
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In 2015, operators spent over $32B on OEM new parts and an additional $13B on alternatives
2015 OEM New Material Demand vs. Alternatives
$35B $30B
~ $32.4B
$25B “…the OEM’s increasingly tight grip on the aftermarket means Delta’s spares costs double about every seven years.” “Without TechOps parting-out engines to bolster spares and coming up with other alternatives to OEM-supplied support, that increase could be even steeper…” …“We’re pretty good at sourcing outside the OEMs…and we’re always working to develop those alternatives.” - Richard Anderson CEO Delta Air Lines Keynote Speech, MRO Americas April 2013
41%
$20B $15B
~ $13.4B
$10B
PMA ($0.54B)
$2.2B
DER Repairs
$3.9B
Surplus
$6.8B
OEM Manual Repairs
$5B $0B
OEM new
Source: ICF analysis
Alternatives
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There are nearly 1.1 million total PMA parts that are FAA approved, of which over 75% are for Boeing aircraft
FAA Approved PMA Part Numbers, by OEM
Bombardier 3%
P&W 1%
Other 5%
Boeing 76%
Airbus 15%
1,077,971
Source: Federal Aviation Administration
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The volume of PMA approvals has been steadily growing since 1990, with over about 440,000 new approvals granted since 2011
FAA Approved PMA Part Numbers, by Year Approved
500,000 420,051 400,000
301,905 300,000 204,570
200,000
85,238
100,000 41,030
22,421 0
Source: Federal Aviation Administration
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Surplus material usage has risen sharply over the past few years, driven by tangible cost savings and minimal perceived risk
Typical Material Price Bands, By Part Type % OEM List
120
OEM Catalogue List Price
100
80
60
40 “Surplus parts have increased the demand for component DER… because the unserviceable surplus parts must repaired. The biggest customer for DER is ourselves.” - Major PMA / DER Supplier
20
0 OEM New
Lower Source: ICF analysis
New Surplus
Used Serviceable Surplus
Perceived Risk
As Removed / Unserviceable
PMA
Higher 29
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Numerous regional factors influence operator PMA consumption to include: Fleet age Mix of lease vs owned aircraft
Virtually every major carrier leverages PMA parts as an OEM alternative Estimated PMA Demand by Major Region
46 - 56%
28 - 38%
Technical capability & experience
5 - 8%
Airline procurement historical practices and culture
12 - 18%
4 - 7%
Source: ICF analysis
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In Summary… In order to control and reduce material spend, airlines must have a comprehensive OEM alternative strategy PMA parts, DER repairs, and surplus material are valuable material sourcing solutions that drive tangible cost savings and improve part availability Safety concerns with regards to OEM alternative material usage have demonstrated to be meritless; yet clearly perceptions of risk remain As long as certain airlines continue to have restrictive PMA policies, Lessors will continue to include conservative language in their lease agreements Continued education is the only solution 31
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2016 Annual Conference October 26-27, 2016 Orlando, Florida
THANK YOU! For questions regarding this presentation, please contact:
Jonathan M. Berger Vice President Aerospace & MRO Advisory
[email protected] +1 404.819.7669
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