A Eurex publication focused on European financial markets, produced by MNl

Morning Briefing November 21st 2016 Monday is a quiet data day on both sides of the Atlantic, but there is a full schedule of central bank policymakers speaking. The calendar gets underway at 0930GMT, when ECB Gov. Council member Carlos Costa gives the opening address at 8th Conference of Banco de Portugal, in Lisbon. At 0945GMT, UK Prime Minister Theresa May addresses the CBI Annual Conference. ECB Gov. Council member Carlos Costa sits on a panel to discuss the process of European integration: a view from Portugal, in Lisbon, starting at 1115GMT.

At 1150GMT, ECB Supervisory Board member Ignazio Angeloni chairs a Panel at CIGI/Oliver Wyman Conference "Reconciling Regulation and Growth", in Rome.

Back in Europe, at 1440GMT, the ECB calls for bids on Tuesday's 7day repo, before publishing the latest PSPP bond-buying data at 1450GMT. ECB Executive

Across the Atlantic, the calendar gets underway at 1300GMT, when Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer discusses monetary policy, inflation rates and economic outlook at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

Board member Benoit Coeure speaks at the TUM Speaker Series "Europe" organised

Canadian data expected at 1330GMT includes the October wholesale sales data.

At 1630GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi presents the ECB Annual ECB accounts atthe European Parliament, in Strasbourg, France.

Global Economic Trading Calendar

by the Technical University of Munich and HEC Debats, in Munich, from 1600GMT.

ECB Supervisory Board chair Daniele Nouy speaks at 1700GMT at Sapienza University of Rome on "The European banking sector - New rules, new supervisors, new challenges"..

Markets FOREX: US dollar strength continued to resonate during the Asia-Pacific region, as markets price in the near certainty of a December Fed rate hike. Dollar-yen marched higher from Y110.65 to Y111.19 and was last at Y111.08. Aussie-dollar slumped to a fresh cycle low of $0.7311 from an earlier top at $0.7347. Cable pushed lower from $1.2363 to $1.2317, last at $1.2335. Meanwhile, euro-dollar traded sideways in a $1.0579 to $1.0615 range, last at $1.0595. US INDEX FUTURES: US stock index futures are trading slightly firmer in quiet trade, with Asian markets providing little inspiration. Currently the Dec'16 e-mini S&P futures are trading up 1.50 points at 2,182.25, the Dec'16 e-mini Nasdaq futures are trading up 3.00 points at 4,811.50, while the Dec'16 e-mini Dow futures are trading up 2 points at 18,855. US STOCKS: US stocks are struggling Friday. The DJIA is up 0.02% at 18,908 and the Nasdaq Composite is flat at 5,334. The DJIA posted a new life-time high of 18,934.05 Monday. The Nasdaq Composite posted a new lifetime high of 5,346.802 earlier.

The S&P 500 is down 0.01% at 2,187, down from an earlier high of 2,189.89. At Thursday's close, the index was up 7.0% on the year and down only 0.3% from the life-time high of 2,193.81, posted August 15. US TSY FUTURES: Treasury futures have started then trading week essentially unchanged from Friday's close, with volumes somewhat decent in early trade. Calendar rolls could be focus this week, as many look to roll positions ahead of the US Thanksgiving holiday period, with cash UST also shut in Asia on Wednesday due to the Labor Thanksgiving holiday in Japan. Technically for 10yr treasury futures the selloff that began on Nov 9 with a topside failure around the 100-DMA (130-180) has resulted in fresh 2016 lows with bears now focusing their attention on the 123-260/300 support region where July & Sept 2014 lows are located. Initial resistance is noted on the hourlies at 125-250 but bulls now need a close above 126-050 to ease immediate bearish pressure whereas above 127-220 is needed to shift focus higher. JAPAN STOCKS: Japanese stocks have held on to their slight opening gains, despite Dollar/Yen retreating to back below the 111.00 level.

The Nikkei has closed for lunch up 0.49% or 87.82 points at 18,055.23, while the Topix is last up 0.75% or 10.67 points at 18,055.23 GOLD: Spot gold last up $4.80 at $1212.70 per ounce, in a $1,214.15 to $1,205.75 range so far this morning in Asia, with the market rallying slightly of a softer US dollar and treasury yeilds. Commerzbank notes, ETF outflows are continuing. "Thursday saw another 8.5 ton reduction in holdings. As such, ETFs have shed all of the inflows they had accrued since early July again", they write. Commerzbank says "If gold were to dip below the $1,200 per troy ounce mark, technical follow-up selling could be the result". OIL: WTI crude oil futures for Jan'17 delivery last up $0.46 at $46.82 per barrel, after a $47.04 to $46.46 range in Asia today, as hopes of a production cuts continue to gain momentum, with Iran and Iraq offering new proposals over the weekend to help solidify a production cut deal ahead of the Nov'30th meeting, Bloomberg notes. CFTC positioning showed that investors had increase their bullish wagers on WTI crude to their highest levels in 9years...

Technical Analysis BUND: (Z16) Bulls Focused On 161.71-162.38 *RES 4: 161.82 21-DMA *RES 3: 161.71 Hourly resistance Nov 9a *RES 2: 161.09 High Nov 18 *RES 1: 160.88 Alternating hourly support/resistance *PREVIOUS CLOSE: 160.81 *SUP 1: 160.53 Hourly support Nov 18 *SUP 2: 159.98 Low Nov 18 *SUP 3: 159.82 Low Nov 16 *SUP 4: 159.47 Hourly support Nov 14 *COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort from fresh highs for the week Friday with correcting O/S daily studies looking to correct currently providing support. Bulls are currently focused on a correction back to the 161.71-162.38 region where the 21-DMA is located. Z16 remained support on dips last week with bears needing a close below 159.82 to return immediate pressure to 159.14.

EUROSTOXX: 3070.79-3109.61 Resistance Region Key *RES 4: 3115.26 Bollinger band top *RES 3: 3109.61 Monthly High Oct 24 *RES 2: 3102.26 200-WMA *RES 1: 3070.79 High Nov 14 *PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3020.83 *SUP 1: 3009.78 Low Nov 17 *SUP 2: 2983.55 200-DMA *SUP 3: 2959.32 Hourly support Nov 9 *SUP 4: 2937.98 Low Nov 9 *COMMENTARY: Although the index continues to find support ahead of 100 & 200-DMAs bulls still need a close above 3070.79 to return pressure to 3102.36-3109.61 where the 200-WMA is located. While 3070.79 caps bears focus on the 2892.52-2937.98 region where monthly lows are located. Bears continue to look for a close below the 200-DMA to add weight to their case. Daily studies correcting from modestly O/B levels are seen as a concern for bulls.

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