MONDIAL DE L’AUTOMOBILE 2012 Bilan & défis de l’industrie automobile à l’horizon 2020 17 Septembre 2012

CONFERENCE DE PRESSE Remi Cornubert Marc Boilard

© Oliver Wyman

Oliver Wyman automotive team in Paris

© OLIVER WYMAN

Marc Boilard

Rémi Cornubert • Partner • Automotive practice leader in France

• Associate partner • Automotive practice

28 avenue Victor Hugo 75116 Paris Phone: +33 1 45 02 33 95 Mobile: +33 6 07 37 84 27 [email protected]

28, avenue Victor Hugo 75116 Paris Phone: +33 1 45 02 32 19 Mobile: +33 6 20 22 44 84 [email protected]

1

Agenda

1 2 3 4 © OLIVER WYMAN

The 2008-09 crisis: where are we now ? What’s next? Major trends until 2020

Consequences for the automotive players

Questions & Answers

2

Section 1 The 2008-09 crisis: where are we now ?

A Glance in the Rearview Mirror The automotive industry has been on a strong growth path for more than 100 years... Global light vehicle production development In mn. units, light vehicles, 1900-2011

Comments

100 Growth

Financial crisis

80

Stability

Decline

60

Oil crisis Oil crisis I & II

40

20

?

• Despite several crises the automotive industry has been growing rapidly • Declining segments have been overcompensated by emerging segments and markets • Along with the migration to small vehicles has come a shift in regional focus, with Asia accounting for more than half of the global market in 2010 already • In spite of the long term continuous growth, the market is quite volatile and can create significant stress on a short-to-mid term basis

World war II

0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Light vehicle s incl. vehicles under 6t Source: OICA, Ward's: World Motor Vehicle Data, Oliver Wyman analysis © OLIVER WYMAN

4

Outcome of 2009 Crisis – OEMs (1/3) The automotive industry has successfully overcome the crisis – some OEMs have managed to even improve operations and profitability… Revenue development 2007-2011 Index, inflation-adjusted, 2007 = 100, selected OEMs1 09/2008: Lehman bankruptcy

200

EBIT-margin 2007 vs. 2010 In % selected OEMs1 by region

9.6% 9.0%

10.1% 7.7%7.6%

180

Revenue

140

7.9%

7.6% 5.1%

160

Impact restructuring GM, Ford

5.2% 1.5%

+22% Already before the crisis regionally differentiated revenue development

2007 2010

+20%

2007 2010

2007 2010

2007 2010

2007 2010

120 100

+17%

80

+6% 60 40 2007

x%

• The consequences of the financial crisis were already clearly noticeable in 2008, especially in Japan and the US

+17%

2008

Change 2010 vs. 2009

2009

2010

In 2011 the Tsunami’s aftermath heavily affected Japanese automotive industry

2011

Indicative trend

1. Representative OEM sample per region Source: Factiva, Thomson Financial, company reports, Oliver Wyman analysis © OLIVER WYMAN

• Since 2009 the OEMs’ revenues have been increasing and have nearly recovered pre-crisis level • OEMs from South Korea and China are highly successful in developing markets and were therefore not hit by the crisis • Overall, a small decrease in profitability can be observed in developed markets (Europe, Japan). Chinese and South Korean OEMs realize significantly higher margins • In Europe, the mass market is declining while the premium segments progress • Most of the global automotive OEMs have managed to overcome the crisis within a few years

5

Outcome of 2009 Crisis – OEMs (2/3) The evolution of OEM’s production over the last years clearly shows contrasted performance Light vehicles production for a sample of groups Production in vehicles, Base 100 (2009-2011) 150

‘09-’12 Cumulated growth rate

140

Best performers: +30 - 40% 130

Average performers: +20 - 26%

120

110

Low performers: 10 to 20 >20 to 30 >30 to 40 >40 to 50

• The share of the world population living in urban areas is constantly growing (47% in 2000, 53% in 2015) • Management of resources becomes key to prevent environmental collapse • The dominance of megacities requires innovative solutions for responsible resource management

Buenos Aires Megacities Population in year 1950 1975 2001 2015

>50 to 60 >60 to 70 >70 to 80 >80 to 90 >90 to 100

Impact for Automotive

• • • •

City population (mn) 30 25 20 15 10

Demand for vehicles suited for city traffic, vehicle becomes a mobile lifestyle hub Introduction of emission based access permissions and / or street tolls Usage of public transportation systems as alternative, especially for weaker incomes Development of electric bikes and scooters

Source: Department of Geography, Cologne University, UN, Oliver Wyman study © OLIVER WYMAN

Tokyo

16

A B C D

Aging, more active population The worldwide share of population >60 years old will significantly increase, leading to a large market segment with new, age-related requirements Percentage of population > 60 years old of total population

Remarks

34% 27% 24% 22%

24%

•

According to the UN the aging of population is unprecedented, pervasive, and enduring

•

Aging population in mature markets mainly benefits from social security coverage; however, decreasing ratio of working to retiring people increasingly is a financial burden

•

Financial coverage of older population in emerging markets with higher uncertainty due to limited welfare

•

Aging societies faced by lack of young, qualified workforce

25%

21% 17% 14%

11%

10%

9%

9%

5%

World

Europe

Northern America

Latin America

2005

Impact for Automotive

Asia

2050

Oceania

Africa

The population gets older and – when affordable – will follow a more active lifestyle than in the past

• In emerging markets growth of generation most likely to buy cars • Special requirements of “older” people in mature markets – In 2002, 25% of the new cars in Germany were sold to people > 60 years, whilst in 1992 these were only 14% – Need for new car designs to facilitate access and use – Mobility in the “third age1” is an important factor for social integration and an active lifestyle

1 Third Age = Time after retirement Source: UN, Shell PKW Studie 2004, OECD, Oliver Wyman study © OLIVER WYMAN

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A B C D

Increasing demand for mobility Job-related traveling as well as increasing traveling in the spare time lead to higher demand for mobility Example

Increasing demand for mobility

Remarks

Passenger travel Germany until 2015 In mn. Passenger km

1130

1 200 1 000

800

CAGR 00-15

926 43 77 75

1012 46 72 76

1036 55 74 76

73 98 86

1,3% 3,6% 1,6% 0,9%

731

818

831

873

1,2%

0

Road vehicle traffic

Impact for Automotive

– High pressure on automotive mobility budgets, e.g. volatile oil prices, increasing taxes, tolls, etc. – However, vehicle stays the major means of transportation despite growing pressure on household mobility spending

200

2000

• Road vehicle traffic accounting for around 80% and growing stronger than public transportation • Specification automotive industry

600 400

• Growth in passenger travel driven by increasing job required mobility as well as increasing activities in spare time

2004

2008

Road public transport

2015 Rail travel

Air travel

Passenger mobility will continue to rise, while the vehicle stays the major means of transportation

• The car market will continue to grow in all geographies • Due to the pressure on automotive mobility budgets, low-cost and second-hand markets will grow

Source: VDA 2005, Oliver Wyman study © OLIVER WYMAN

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A B C D

Polarization of Income Distribution Polarization of income distribution shifts demand structures toward Entry and Premium “Loss of the middle” in mature markets • Increasing polarization of income distribution • Losses in the medium-volume segment • Growth in premium, upper-middle class and fun segments • Growth of the low-cost segment and demand for specific low-cost models Income

Income

Households

Impact for Automotive

Households

Automobile production by vehicle segments Worldwide, in %, 2006-2015 CAGR ‘06-’15

8%

9%

Premium

1,3%

71%

67%

Middle

-0,6%

21%

24%

Entry

1,5%

2006

2015

• Collapse in the middle for vehicle segments, simultaneously increase of premium, higher middle class and low cost segments (e.g. Dacia Logan); in some emerging markets growth of middle class • Polarized demand regarding automotive distribution channels, e.g. full service leasing vs. fast fit • Positive or negative impact on OEMs margin, depending on market positioning

Source: Oliver Wyman, Polk Marketing Systems © Oliver Wyman

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A B C D

Shift towards of premium and low cost segments Dacia has been extremely successful since 2004 ; Entry level is expected to represent up 40% of total Renault Group Sales by 2013 Renault Group: Entry level sales and % of total sales 2004-2014

Lodgy

Annual sales (k units) Thousands

Dokker

1400

Duster

1300 1200

Sandero 1200

1010 1000 Logan

814

800

685

600

510 367

400

21%

40%

40%

2013e

2014e

36% 30%

532 26% 23%

259 200 0

15%

174 96

11%

4%

7%

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008 Entry Level

2009

2010

2011

2012e

% of Group Sales

Source: Société Générale Cross Asset Reasearch Note: Figures encompass all entry level vehicles, whether branded as Dacia or Renault © Oliver Wyman

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A B C D

Increasing Demand for safety Consumers’ & governments’ rising demand for safety is strongly present and continues being a major driver for automotive innovation, now shifting from passive to active safety Increasing demand for safety

Remarks • As basic consumer needs are satisfied, safety aspects are gaining importance

Food Safety Nuclear Safety

Medical Safety

• Higher performance and complexity supplied and required (globally increasing hazards e.g. terrorism, diseases, etc.) • Increase in consumer information, education • Specification automotive industry

Chemical Process Safety

Increasing demand for safety

Seismic Disaster Prevention

Traffic Safety

– Decrease of road fatalities as major objective (increasingly successful) – Focus on passive safety complemented by the increasing development of features for active safety – Introduction of obligatory rating tests regarding safety features

– Intensification of customers‘ upfront research on product offerings – growing importance of brand values and trusted third party sources

Impact for Automotive

• Safety remains a major innovation area , especially active security equipment • Need of a comprehensive and affordable safety package from entry level

Source: planetsave, tagesschau, Superfos, aiche, www.medizin.de, VDA, OECD, Oliver Wyman study © OLIVER WYMAN

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A B C D

Individualization of demand …leading to an increasing complexity: the number of models offered by German premium OEMs has tripled in the last twenty years Vehicle models # of models

Example Number of models, 1990, 1999 and 2012 1990

23

23

X3

20

1999

G Off-Road SL Roadster S-Class Coupé S-Class Lim. E-Class Coupé E-Class Kombi E-Class Lim. 190 Lim.

14 11

7

7

8

1990

Impact for Automotive

G Off-Road ML SUV V-Class MPV SL Roadster SLK Roadster CLK Cabrio CLK Coupé CL Coupé S-Class Lim. E-Class Kombi E-Class Lim. C-Class Kombi C-Class Lim. A-Class Lim.

9

1999

2012

8

14

Viano SLS Roadster SLS Coupé SLK-Klasse SL-Klasse S-Klasse R-Klasse M-Klasse GLK-Klasse GL-Klasse G-Klasse Cabrio G-Klasse E-Klasse Coupé E-Klasse Cabrio E-Klasse T-Modell E-Klasse Lim. CLS-Klasse CL-Klasse Coupé C-Klasse Coupé C-Klasse T-Modell C-Klasse Lim. B-Klasse Lim. A-Klasse Lim.

23

• Higher diversity and complexity for OEMs • Increase of R&D modules to prevent development costs explosion

Source: Company information, Oliver Wyman Research © OLIVER WYMAN

2012

22

A B C D

Increasingly “using instead of owning” (1/2) The use of mobility services like car sharing is still limited today but should grow as owning a car is not anymore a symbol for younger generations Overview car usage patterns 2011; in % of respondents; all sample countries Use a company car for private use 3%

Car usage patterns by geography 2011; in % of respondents; all sample countries

No car or drivers license

100%

2% 4%

1%

4%

3%

Use a company car for private use

43%

Own/lease private car

6%

No car, use car sharing scheme

90% 12%

No car but hold a driver license

80%

44%

70%

11%

70%

60% No car, use 1% car sharing scheme

Highest share among students, lowest among workers

73%

3%

50% 40%

26%

Impact for Automotive

Thereof share of hybrid / electric vehicles €30 000

PHEV (Chevrolet Volt) 40 - 65% savings + €10 000-16 000

MHEV (Honda Insight) 10 - 20% savings + €1000-4000 ICE (Mercedes C-Class) 10 - 20% savings + €500-3000

Impact for Automotive

EV (Tesla Roadster) Up to 100% savings > €10 000

HEV (Toyota Prius) 15 - 40% savings + €3000-6000

Fuel Savings

100%

• Huge R&D efforts to develop HEV / EV powertrains ; partnership opportunities • HEV/EV powertrain cost reduction necessary until 2020 to increase target customer base and sales • Impossibility to develop all the powertrain solutions ; risks to miss the future winning technology

Source: Oliver Wyman expert interviews, TU Vienna, company information, press clippings © Oliver Wyman

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A B C D

Electrification – HEV Sales HEV market has taken off, not only in terms of sales but also in terms of model availability ; however, it remains very limited today Hybrid vehicles sales worldwide In ‘000 vehicles, from 2004 to 2010

Comments

1000

940

900

CAGR : +31,8% /year

800

720

• Market leader is Toyota with more than 3.5 million Toyota and Lexus hybrids (77% of the total cumulated sales)

700 600 500

500

• The United States is the leading hybrid market , followed by Japan and Europe

500 370

400

• Cumulative HEV sales up to January 2012:

290

300 180

200

• More than 4.5 million hybrid electric vehicles have been sold worldwide by the end of 2011

– USA : 2,18 million units – Japan: 1,5 million units

100

– Europe : 0,45 millions units

0 2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Worldwide sales (M units) 61,7

64,0

66,7

70,4

66,0

64,0

69,0

(0,3%)

(0,45%)

(0,55%)

(0,70%)

(0,76%)

(1,13%)

(1,36%)

• 9 443 units have been sold in France in 2010

% HEV

Sources : Hybrid and electric vehicle development, IFP, November 2011. Alternative Fuel Vehicles (AFVs) and Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs): Trend of sales by HEV models from 19992010“, analyses Oliver Wyman © OLIVER WYMAN

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Electrification – EV Sales Over 58,000 electrics cars and trucks were sold in 2011 – less than 0,08% of the market ; the Nissan Leaf, the Mitsubishi i-MiEV and the Chevrolet Volt are clear leaders 2011 World electric cars and trucks sales Others

Think City 1500 REVA 3% 2000 3%

Smith EV 1200 2%

BYD eBus 3620 6% 1000 2%

Nissan Leaf 20000 34%

Tesla Roadster 2000 3% • Launched in 2008 • 2 350 units sold2 by mid-2012

• Launched in Dec 2010 • 35 000 units sold1 by mid-2012

Chevy Volt 10000 17% • Launched in Dec 2010 • ~16 000 units sold3 by mid-2012

Mitsubishi iMiEV 17000 29%

• Launched in July 2009 • 20 000 units manufactured 3 by mid2012

The Electric vehicles sold in 2011 represent less than 0,08% of Worldwide vehicles sales

1: By August 2012 - "Electric Leaf coming to PR in January". Caribbean Business. 2012-08-28 2: By June 2012 - "Tesla Hits Accelerator Despite Q2 Revenue Miss". Forbes. 2012-07-25 3: By June 2012 - Bernama Media. 2012-06-26 Source: USA Department of Energy, OW analysis © OLIVER WYMAN

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A B C D

Lightweight challenge Weight reduction is a key topic for OEMs in order to achieve the 2020 CO2 target Illustration: car weight evolution from 1970 and target until 2020 Segment M1 (average car) 1 350 Kg

Emission treatment systems Performance systems for better acceleration, handling & braking … Occupant safety like airbags, pretensioner… Infotainment & other electrical systems Comfort systems – Air conditionning, Seats

850 Kg Car weight

Target

Improved Noise, Vibration, Harness & handling Increase in vehicle dimension – Longer, Wider, Taller cars

750 Kg

Delta weight target: 500kg (37%) Reference C segment car (Golf and equivalent)

Equivalence : 100kg ~ 0.5 l/100km ~ 10 g CO2/100km 1970

Impact for Automotive

2000

2010

2020

• Lightweight design is a priority for all OEMs, and is a revolution for OEMs R&D • All the vehicule modules are investigated to track potential weight reduction (interiors, body, …) • High strength steel, aluminium, and composite materials will gain importance

Source: Usine Nouvelle, Ecoconception conference 2010 © Oliver Wyman

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A B C D

Lightweight challenge – Example Peugeot reduced the weight of the 208 by more than 15% compared to the 207

Weight Peugeot 207 and 208 (Heaviest model)

Example of weight savings

1 418kg

• Car structure: -25kg – Hollow pieces – Use of High Tensile Steel

1 180kg

• Running Gear: -50kg – Size reduction of all pieces (e.g. damper) thanks to overall lower weight • Interior: -25kg – Lighter foam and structure for seats: -8kg – Soundproofing: -14kg

207

208

238 kg saved

• Spare wheel replaced with reparation kit: -10kg • Engine: up to -25kg – New 3-cylinders engine

Source: Usine Nouvelle, Automobile magazine Note: Weight savings depend on the model and motorization. Comparison based on: Peugeot 207 1.6 HDi 112 Allure and Peugeot 208 HDi 115 Allure © Oliver Wyman

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A B C D

Lightweight challenge – Composites Composites can save up to 70% weight when substituted to steel components, but at a higher price Comparison of material lightweight potential Reference for price and weight is regular steel 12x

Comments Orders of magnitude

Cost relative to Steel

CFRP

10x

60% 10.0 (Aero)

8x

Titanium 50% 8.0

• Carbon fiber composites (CFRP) are most weight effective, but much more expensive, from 3-4 times the price of steel (commercial grade), to 10 times the price of steel for aerospace applications

6x

4x

CFRP (Commercial)

50% 3.0 Al matrix 55% composites 2.5

2x Stainless 10% Steel 1.0

0xRegular Steel 0%

• Glass fiber composites (GFRP) are the cheapest composite and can save around 30% weight ; their relative performance vs cost position is in the same order of magnitude as aluminium and high strength steel

20%

30%High 1.5 GFRP 30% 1.3 Strength Steel

40%

50% 1.7 Aluminum

Magnesium 65% 2.0

60%

Weight Reduction vs. Steel

80%

Composites: Carbon Fiber Reinforced Plastics (CFRP), Glass Fiber Reinforced Plastics (GFRP) Source: SAE, US Department of Energy © Oliver Wyman

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A B C D

Lightweight challenge – Composites for structural parts Composite structural parts will not become mainstream before 2020, while semistructural parts1 could be widespread around 2015 Semi-structural

Structural parts

Characteristics

• Parts or modules made by Tier 1 suppliers, assembled in the vehicle at the end of the assembly process

• Parts from the body in white, made by OEMS, that go through paint shop and contribute to crash proof properties

Example of parts

• Bumper beams, Seat frames, hard tops, hatch

• Pillars, Floor panel, Cross car beam

Fiber

• Mainly Glass fiber today

• Main Carbon fiber today

Resin

• Mainly thermosets (Polyester & Epoxy) but some thermoplastic usage

• All thermoset • Mainly epoxy today

Current applications

• Already used in some vehicles (mainly mainstream) but still limited • Ex: Land Rover Evoque (hatch)

• Limited to sport cars / “supercars” or electric vehicles • Ex: Formula1 racecars, Tesla Roadster, Bugatti Veyron, McLaren MP4-12C, BMW i3 (EV)

Rationale of composites • Glass fiber composites can reduce vehicle weight usage with a relatively moderate cycle time, at reasonable cost • However, GFRP parts have been tested since many years (e.g. hatch Citroën DS, BX) without really managing to convince OEMs Earliest time horizon for series vehicles

≈ 2015

1. Short Fiber composites are also very common in interiors parts for instance Source: JEC Composites, Expert Interviews, Oliver Wyman analysis © OLIVER WYMAN

• In the supercar segment, CFRP’s long cycle time and high cost are compatible with a high selling price and small volumes

≈ 2020 34

Section 3 Consequences for the automotive players

Evolving competitive landscape Although established OEMs have consolidated in the past, new entrants in emerging markets have led to an increasing number of players Global OEM brands Absolute numbers, in defined regions

Comments

# of new/ abandoned brands

+3

Japan

12

+2

US

16

+1

Other BRIC1

Example of abandoned brands

14

129 5 7

South Korea

155 4 8

-1 -2

13 Example of new brands

-4

60 China

26

+38

Rest of World

31

+11 -16

Europe

32

+1

-4

-3

2001

26

30

• Despite the strong financial and competitive pressure, OEM brands in the established markets have been consolidated only slightly over the last ten years • On the other hand, the number of OEM brands in emerging markets have increased significantly • Especially in China, where OEM brands have almost doubled, reflecting the growth momentum and indicating potential for consolidation in the near future

2011

1 Brazil, India, Russia Note: Brands w/o reported production volume count as not existing Source: LMCA © OLIVER WYMAN

36

Diversification of services and value shift The IT industry is an example of tremendous shift of Value…

Value migration: Example of IT industry market capitalization $132BB

$125BB

$469BB

$2,542BB

$1,907BB

100%

Google Cisco

Percent total equity value

80%

60%

Microsoft

Service $52BB Internet $191BB Networking $196BB

Software $547BB

Chips $467BB

40%

Intel 20%

Hardware $453BB IBM 0% 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Source: Thomson Datastream; All US public companies in Hardware, Semi Conductor, Software, IT Services, Internet & Selected Telcoms. Equip. ICB subcategories © OLIVER WYMAN

37

Diversification of services and value shift … We anticipate a similar shift in the automotive industry toward alternative sources of revenue Value migration car mobility 1950 - 2025

Implications for OEM

Mobility services

E.g. repair, fuel, insurance

Services

Operating costs Vehicle Usage fee Vehicle lease / Finance

•

Offering of new services

•

Participation in growing and profitable markets

•

Integration in existing offer

•

Consistency with current brand world

•

Establishment of environmental image

•

Formation of cooperations with other parties

•

One offer leveraging different mobility providers

•

Sustained control of customer touch points

Vehicle Opportunities

Vehicle purchase

1950

Source: Oliver Wyman

2025

•

Decreasing market

•

Loss of control of customer touch points

•

Falling prices

•

…

Threats

Conclusion Agenda for automotive players Major trends until 2020 • Strong growth in emerging countries • Painful restructuration necessary in Western Europe to tackle the over-capacity issue • Fast growing areas : A/B segments, low cost, premium • Explosion of the number of connected cars • Take off of the Hybrid vehicles market and slow emergence of Electric vehicles • Lightweight design as a key success factor for OEMs ; increasing importance of new materials like composites • Development of mobility services, shifting the value downstream, with emergence of new competitors

© Oliver Wyman

Implications for automotive players

1

Ensure global market coverage

2

Address industrial overcapacity issues

3

Focus the product offering on growing segments

4 5

Invest in R&D to develop tomorrow’s key technologies: powertrain electrification, connectivity, lightweight Investigate the mobility services area

39

Booth & Conferences at the Paris auto show Attend our conferences & Visit our booth (Hall 3 C332) to meet more of our experts and learn about our recent studies CONFÉRENCES OLIVER WYMAN AU MONDIAL

28 SEPTEMBRE 2012 – SALLE 733B – CARINA, HALL 7, NIVEAU 3

14:00 - Informatique embarquée : Une révolution pour les équipementiers 15:00 - Mobilité du futur : Comment faire émerger de nouveaux usages ? 16:00 - Matériaux Composites 2020 : Futur incontournable dans l’auto ? 17:00 - Perspectives auto 2020 : Tendances et défis 17:30 - Voiture connectée : Quand la voiture devient Smartphone

© Oliver Wyman

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SAMPLE OF RECENT OLIVER WYMAN STUDIES IN AUTOMOTIVE CONTENTS ALONG THE ENTIRE VALUE CHAIN

CUSTOMER

R&D

PROCUREMENT / SUPPLIER

PRODUCTION

SALES

SERVICES

: AFTER SALES

Questions ?

© Oliver Wyman

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Appendix

RECENT OLIVER WYMAN STUDIES IN AUTOMOTIVE (2/7) CUSTOMER

Car Innovation 2015 The study identified five areas for action to improve innovation management: orienting R&D activities to customer needs and market developments, actively realigning the innovation portfolio, continuously improving the cost-effectiveness and risk management of R&D activities, promoting an organization and culture of openness, so as to adopt trends from other industry sectors, and continually reassessing the innovation strategy to confirm that it is up-to-date and in tune with market developments.

RECENT OLIVER WYMAN STUDIES IN AUTOMOTIVE (3/7) R&D In-Car IT – Trends, Opportunities, and Challenges for Automotive Suppliers The emerging role of electronics and software holds enormous opportunities for suppliers: with in-car IT, they can unlock new revenue sources and break out of their traditional role in the supply chain. Although the suppliers' management has largely recognized this, many of them still believe that there is a significant need for action if they want to keep pace with new technologies. But they can learn from the software and IT industry in particular when building up the respective capabilities.

Composites Materials 2020 Composites lightweight properties are highly attractive for many industries. This study takes a general look at the composites market towards 2020 and a closer look at Automotive, Aerospace and Wind composites demand.

RECENT OLIVER WYMAN STUDIES IN AUTOMOTIVE (4/7) PROCUREMENT / SUPPLIER

Risk Patterns in the Automotive Supplier Industry The automotive market is undergoing significant changes. Many German suppliers are well-positioned to exploit these developments as an opportunity, but need sufficient financial power to do so. Because of uncertainty about the capital markets, it is important to proactively draw the investors’ attention to possible risks, and to present a convincing strategy for the next years.

The New Wave of Acquisitions in the Automotive Supplier Industry Many suppliers are supposed to be put up for sale, but financial investors, in particular, are hesitant to go shopping for them. As a result, investors operating in a systematic manner have an opportunity to sweep in and acquire eye-catching companies at steeply discounted prices. At the same time, pending sales will stoke competition in many supplier segments.

RECENT OLIVER WYMAN STUDIES IN AUTOMOTIVE (5/7) PRODUCTION

The Harbour Report This yearly confidential report is based on manufacturing data provided by the world leading OEMs. It highlights discrete objective differences among products, plants and companies. The report analyzes performance drivers and explain gaps. It provides insights into other factors beyond labor productivity that impact plant or company performance – quality, productivity and cost.

Setting the Stage for Lean Manufacturing Success Lean’s systems and tools are valuable. But it is how a company executes them − supports their use − that makes the difference between success and failure. It takes time and needs the right people systems.

South American Auto Manufacturing As OEMs expand their footprint into South America’s rural areas, they are inventing new ways to address their most pressing challenge: building a supplier network that can deliver the same value the OEMs enjoy in other parts of the world.

RECENT OLIVER WYMAN STUDIES IN AUTOMOTIVE (6/7) SALES

E-Mobility: Partnerships in Sales and Marketing OEMs must come up with a clear marketing concept today to prepare for the arrival of the e-mobility wave. The top priority of this work is to lock the interface to the customer into place. Alliances concluded with the widest variety of partners are essential – from established energy suppliers to start-ups involved in mobility management and the charging process.

Connected Cars for Customer Retention in After Sales The fight for customers is entering a new round in the lucrative after-sales business. If OEMs now go full throttle and systematically exploit the advantages of vehicle networking, they will quickly leave independent providers in their wake.

RECENT OLIVER WYMAN STUDIES IN AUTOMOTIVE (7/7) SERVICES Connected Cars – the Smartphones of the Auto Industry The ever stronger trend to complete vehicle networking presents a major opportunity for all OEMs in the lucrative after-sales business to retain vehicle users even after the warranty period has ended.

The Future of Mobility Many customers are prepared to significantly change their mobility behavior. If OEMs want to stay in the game, they must position the car as a key component of the mobility mix and combine the different modes of transport in a user-friendly way.

Automotive