Modeling of energy systems – an industrial view IEW 2010 conference, June 21, 2010 Royal Institute of Technology Stockholm Lars Strömberg Professor Vice president R&D Vattenfall AB
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The Vattenfall Group • Vattenfall sells almost 200 TWh electricity
– The main part is produced by hydropower, nuclear power and coal. – A smaller part is produced by bio fuels and wind power – About 20 TWh is produced in combined heat and power plants
• Vattenfall sell about 40 TWh heat
– The main part is produced by bio fuels, coal and gas in cogeneration plants
• 40,000 employees • Vattenfall emits about 90 million tons of CO2 per annum
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Generation portfolio totalling about 40,000 MW
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Vattenfall has declared that we will reduce our emissions by 50% by 2030 and be carbon neutral until 2050
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The Internal Abatement Project supports Vattenfall’s vision to be CO2 neutral by 2050 Vattenfall’s clean energy road map
Key success factors
gCO2/kWh electricity
•
Investment and growth strategy adapted to climate change
•
Strategic market positioning and climate development of our products and services
•
Include climate perspective in all key decisions
100% 90%
600
80%
500
2007 curve
400 300 200
70%
Vattenfall target 2030
60% 50% 40%
Abatement vision
30% 20%
100 0
1990
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10% 1
2010
2030
2
0%
2050
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Demand for new generation in EU27 Energy demands
• Great need for new generation as well as replacements for old power plants. Est. 500 bn Euro
Additional demand Installed capacity in EU in GW
• Electricity consumption expected to increase by over 20% between 2005 and 2020.
Demand for new plant capacity
Wind
Replacement demand
Coal, gas, oil
Nuclear
• During the next few decades, coal and nuclear power plants in particular will reach decommissioning age.
Hydro power
Wind and other renewables Coal, gas, oil Nuclear Hydro power
Source: EU – Energy and Transport Outlook, VGB
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≈ 300,000 MW until 2020
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Modeling the energy system without „friction“ • The models can express a path forward without “friction” • Experience gives: – – – – –
Technologies are considered static Cost for energy from a certain energy source have a fixed cost The infrastructure is not modeled Infrastructure has no restrictions We start from the very beginning with a blank sheet of paper
• The energy system is deregulated and commercial in reality – – – – –
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The emission trading system exists Energy use cannot be changed by command Availability is above 90 % Close down for overhauls every fourth year Operating and maintenance personnel very low
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A carbon abatement portfolio
Source IEA, K Bennaceur
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Modeling the energy system „with friction“ • The system contains numerous hinders and locking effects • In reality – – – – – –
Technologies develop Cost changes The infrastructure is not perfect Infrastructure has numerous restrictions System costs are often neglected We do not stop a plant until it is uneconomical
• We live in a commercial environment – – – – © Vattenfall AB
The emission trading system exists Fuel cost is volume depending Electricity price is set by the market …………… 9
Energy System Analysis • We know where we want to come – the sustainable system • Numerous lock-in effects exists, – – – – –
Technical Economical Political Previous decisions Market
• Stepwise approach • Varying costs and availabilty • Market based analysis
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Market behaviour
The energy price is set by the market in Europe
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Electricity generation costs (assuming 30 €/ton CO2) €/MWh 70 60 50 CO2 cost Fuel O&M Capital
40 30 20 10 0 Large PF plant
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ETS cost
PF plant CCS
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ETS cost
Electricity generation costs (assuming 30 €/ton CO2) €/MWh 70
Varaible cost
60 50 CO2 cost Fuel O&M Capital
40 30 20 10 0 Large PF plant
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ETS cost
PF plant CCS
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ETS cost
SUPPLY CURVE 2005 Germany Long-term variable Costs Pf / kWh (Fuel+Pers.+O&M) 19,00
Supply Curve 2005 ohne Neubauten Öffentliche Versorgung + Industrie 52GW 60GW Baseload Average Load
18,00
78GW Peakload
Verfügbare Netto-Engpassleistung in MW el.
17,00 16,00 15,00 14,00 13,00 12,00 11,00 10,00 9,00
About 11000 MW transfer from abroad is possible
8,00 7,00 6,00
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