Millennials & The Future of Tourism 2015 Annual International TTRA Conference Sarah Catlett, Senior Vice President, The Futures Company Vicki Allen, Research Manager, VISIT FLORIDA June 16, 2015

Central Question: How can Florida become the No. 1 travel destination in the world?

In order to meet its strategic goal of protecting and growing Florida’s share of destination travel to and within the state, VISIT FLORIDA must better understand Millennials, what makes them tick, and how best to reach and engage them with relevant, authentic messages that will ultimately drive their decisions and about Florida as a preferred travel destination. ©

2015

2

Explore

Millennial insights from the MONITOR knowledge base to provide a foundation of Millennial understanding for VISIT FLORIDA and its partners

©

2015

3

Authenticity

Cohort

Multicultural

Redefining Success

Autonomy

Debt

Lifestage

Aspiration

Mental Health ©

Authorship Tech 2015

Un/underemployment 4

Distinguishing lifestage and generational cohort

AGE

©

LIFESTAGE

GENERATION

A short-hand for consumption needs related to age

A group of consumers sharing the same birth years

Physical and psychological milestones create new product & service requirements

Shared formative experiences have lasting influence on habits & preferences

2015

5

The making of a generational mindset

All generations alive at a given point in time face a similar set of societal conditions

But each generation brings a different perspective

It’s the starting point that gives rise to the enduring character of a generation ©

2015

6

Key adult generations in today’s marketplace

BABY BOOMERS Born: 1946 – 1964 Ages: 51 – 69 Population: 73 million

GEN XERS Born: 1965 – 1978 Ages: 37 – 50 Population: 58 million

MILLENNIALS Born: 1979 – 1996 Ages: 19 – 36* Population: 79 million

*NOTE: The Millennial cohort is between 19 and 36 years of age, but research for this project was conducted among Millennials 18-34; population sizes based on U.S. Census Population Estimates, June 2014 ©

2015

7

Loving, doting parents Teams and trophies Columbine Greater lifestyle diversity and multiculturalism than ever before Barack Obama

©

2015

8

Internet Facebook Smartphones ©

2015

9

Extreme weather Climate change Increasing attention on resource limitations

©

2015

10

Longest peacetime economic expansion in history

THEN

The worst economic downturn in 75 years Challenging job market Foreclosure frenzy ©

2015

11

9/11 and the War on Terror Political polarity Occupy Wall Street Enron, WorldCom, Bernie Madoff

©

2015

12

Authenticity Authorship Autonomy

©

2015

13

Authenticity 65%

81% It’s your responsibility to stand up for your beliefs, even if they are unpopular

©

2015

Important to be seen as: Someone who can always see through exaggeration and hype

2013 TRU Youth MONITOR; 2014 U.S. Yankelovich MONITOR

14

Authorship 67% Free to shape our identities and transform ourselves in whatever way we want

©

2015

2010 Global MONITOR; U.S. Sample

15

Authorship Traditional linear lifestage trajectory

Get married Live with parents

Get an education

Have children

Live with parents

Move in with friends

Cohabit with partner

Buy home

Start career

Travel abroad

Move back home

Get married

Cohabit with partner

Have children

Go back to education

Change career

Get divorced

Sell home

©

Children leave home

Buy home

Get an education

Possible Millennial Trajectories

Start career

2015

Older kids leave home Additions to family Look for new home

U.S. Yankelovich MONITOR Download on Millennials

16

Living arrangements among 18- to 31-year-olds 1968

13%

Autonomy

1981

26%

2007

2012

41%

42%

27%

23%

32%

36%

56% 43%

32%

31% LIVING AT HOME

MARRIED

ROOMMATES / LIVING ALONE

Source: Pew Research Center/GOOD ©

2015

Pew Research Center; U.S. Census Bureau

17

Autonomy % 72 Have to take what you can get because no one is going to give you anything

©

2015

2014 U.S. Yankelovich MONITOR

18

Un/underemployment Debt Mental health Redefining success ©

2015

19

Un/underemployment % 8.2 Unemployment rate (among 25-32s), compared to: Xers in 1995 = 5.8% Boomers in 1979 = 5.7%

43% Recent college grads working in jobs that don’t require college education

©

2015

Pew Research Center; Heldrich Center for Workforce Development

20

Debt $1.2 trillion Nationwide student debt Cost of an undergraduate education increasing 2-3x inflation

©

2015

BusinessWeek; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

21

Mental Health % 43 There are many days I feel like a failure

©

2015

2011 U.S. Yankelovich MONITOR

22

Redefining Success §  Finding new dreams to replace those they have been forced to give up §  Not abandoning success—just acknowledging that the game has changed §  Redefining success to be attainable in new ways

©

2015

U.S. Yankelovich MONITOR Download on Millennials

23

“I want to be a Millennial when I retire”

Redefining Success “I’m going to wake up when I want and take a long bike ride,” he said. “Then I’m going to read. I love to read. I’m going to finally learn to play the hammered dulcimer. And if I need a little extra cash, I’ll work a few hours a week as a physical therapist, which was my first career and first love before I got an M.B.A. and ended up herding cats.”

Here’s the answer I give when people ask me if Max’s career is a success. I say: “It’s off the charts. He’s living the life of a millionaire retiree.” New York Times, November 5, 2013 ©

2015

24

We must understand the whole picture & offer a travel experience that resonates

Authenticity

Cohort

Debt Redefining Success

Aspiration Multicultural

Mental Health

©

2015

Autonomy

Authorship

Tech

Lifestage

Un/underemployment

25

If you don’t like change, you’re going to like irrelevance even less. GENERAL ERIC SHINSEKI CHIEF OF STAFF, U.S. ARMY (RETIRED)

©

2015

26

Rethinking the travel experience

“

This morning, a city I've never been to felt like one I already knew. Everyone in your neighborhood was so warm and friendly. And your home … your home was perfect. And peaceful. And then I met your friends. They reminded me of my friends. It felt like I had known them for years. It was almost like family. I just wanted to thank you for sharing your world with me. It felt like home.

“

VIEW AD HERE ©

2015

AIRBNB VIA YOUTUBE

Never a Stranger 27

©

Explore

Quantify

Engage

Millennial insights from the MONITOR knowledge base to provide a foundation of Millennial understanding for VISIT FLORIDA and its partners

Quantitative deep dive in the U.S. via custom quantitative survey to identify/explore drivers and barriers to choosing Florida as a preferred travel destination

Qualitative exploration in the U.S. to provide firstperson insight into Millennials and how they think about travel generally, and specifically, about travel to/within Florida

2015

28

Engage

One-on-one interviews Friendship Group sessions Creative Scrapbooks Professional Videography

©

2015

29

What Do Millennials Want from a Vacation? ©

2015

30

Traveling and taking vacations are core aspirations for Millennials

64%

“I love to travel, it’s my favorite thing to do. I want to switch careers so that I can travel even more” Felicia, 28, Atlanta

Travel is a luxury worth spending money on Strongly Agree/Agree

VISIT FLORIDA Custom Millennials Research ©

2015

31

Like Millennials, a good vacation is a puzzle with many pieces

Relaxation

Good weather

Culture Making memories

Nightlife Educational experiences

Sightseeing

Luxury

©

2015

Adventure

Good food

Scenery

Interesting people

32

There’s a relative hierarchy of vacation needs for Millennials

“I like to travel with a group so there needs to be variety so that everyone is happy” Variety of Kian, 23, Philadelphia things to do

Culture Novelty and Adventure Opportunity for Relaxation

66%

Strongly Agree/Agree: I love seeing cultures that are different from my own when I travel

72%

Strongly Agree/Agree: Traveling is all about having an adventure and doing things I’ve never done before

74%

Strongly Agree/Agree: Vacations are all about relaxing and unwinding

86%

Amazing Food

A lot/some interest in doing on vacation: Trying new restaurants or different cuisines

VISIT FLORIDA Custom Millennials Research ©

2015

33

Opportunity Analysis Overview: Among Millennials interested in traveling to Florida More Likely to Have Gone to/Done While in FL

Driving Current Visitors

Locations and activities that are not driving Millennials to vacation but they are doing in Florida

Locations and activities that are driving Millennials to vacation and that they are doing in Florida

Low Interest in Going to/Doing on Vacation

INTEREST

ACTION

Perks of Florida

High Interest in Going to/Doing on Vacation

Non-Opportunity for Florida

Opportunity for Florida

Locations and activities that are not driving Millennials to vacation and that they are not doing in Florida

Locations and activities that are driving Millennials to vacation but that they are not doing in Florida

Less Likely to Have Gone to/Done While in FL ©

2015

34

Getting Millennials to Florida v Florida has had amazing growth v Growth largely due to Baby Boomers •  Grew up taking vacations to Florida •  They took their kids to Florida •  Largest demographic group to Florida

v Massive growth in tourism infrastructure

#1 Theme Park in the World

Getting Millennials to Florida v As the population of Millennials grows and comes of age—Florida is getting lesser share of Millennials despite their increased travel v As Baby Boomers get older, we are not replacing them with Millennials

What We Learned… v They have all been here before •  They have seen it all and checked it off their list

v Learning: Show them something they don’t know •  Provide them a “passport of experiences” o  Highlight local features/culture o  Highlight foodie/brew tours (adding that to our website)

What We Learned… v Learning: Show them something they don’t know •  Highlight nature •  Highlight more sophisticated nightlife vs. “partying” image they have (and experienced) •  Expanded mobile and sharing presence #LoveFL

Since the Study… v Millennials are a long-term target v Developing programs that touch on the things they are interested in: •  Adding more dining to our web page •  Adding content of interest (brew tours, local tours, etc.) •  More mobile

v Highlight the importance of Millennials to an industry focused on Boomers

Millennials’ Impact on the Future of Tourism

©

2015

43

No crystal ball included All our knowledge is about the past, and all our decisions are about the future.

We can see the past but not influence it. We can influence the future but not see it. THE FUTURES COMPANY © 2015

44

Insight

Foresight

noun | in·sight |

noun | fore·sight | \ˈfȯr ˌsīt\

\ˈin-ˌ sīt\ The capacity to gain an accurate and deep intuitive understanding of a person or thing

The ability to create a highquality, coherent and functional forward view, and to use the insights arising in useful organizational ways

Slaughter (1999)

THE FUTURES COMPANY © 2015

45

The Goal

FROM:

TO:

REACTIVE

PROACTIVE

THE FUTURES COMPANY © 2015

46

How to align foresight with insight Take the outside-in view Envision where Millennials are pushing the tourism industry Expand the way you think about your competition—Millennials do Learn from the edges Stress-test your work by projecting it into the future THE FUTURES COMPANY © 2015

47

Take the outside-in view Explore the full range of forces and influences—from macro to micro—on the future and your business

TOOLS: Drivers analysis Expert interviews Systems maps Trend inventories THEFUTURES THE FUTURES COMPANY COMPANY © 2015 © 2015

48

Envision where Millennials are pushing your industry Create and explore ideas that challenge your assumptions about your industry and your place in it TOOLS: Scenario planning Future dynamics THEFUTURES THE FUTURES COMPANY COMPANY © 2015 © 2015

49

Expand the way you think about your competition Build in a view of both today’s and tomorrow’s competitive landscape TOOLS: Provocative forecasts Scenarios Future dynamics THEFUTURES THE FUTURES COMPANY COMPANY © 2015 © 2015

50

TOOLS: Global Energies Streetscapes

Learn from the edges Explore terrain and places you normally wouldn’t— including other industries and leading-edge consumers—to uncover new sources of inspiration THEFUTURES THE FUTURES COMPANY COMPANY © 2015 © 2015

51

Stress-test your work by projecting it into the future Examine your current plans, frameworks, and marketing initiatives within the context of your emerging foresight POV to assess their longevity TOOLS: Future-proofing segmentation Future forums Headwinds/tailwinds THEFUTURES THE FUTURES COMPANY COMPANY © 2015 © 2015

52

How to align foresight with insight Take the outside-in view Envision where Millennials are pushing the tourism industry Expand the way you think about your competition—Millennials do Learn from the edges Stress-test your work by projecting it into the future THE FUTURES COMPANY © 2015

53

Thank you Questions? Please contact: Sarah Catlett, Senior Vice President, The Futures Company [email protected] | +1 (919) 932-8642 Vicki Allen, Research Manager, VISIT FLORIDA [email protected] |+1 (850) 205-3860