Meeting the Food, Water, and Power Scarcity Challenge in the United Arab Emirates: The “Majlis Approach” A Message from Booz Allen Hamilton The Middle East North Africa region is an exciting place for business today as countries that have experienced rapid growth look to further develop their supportive infrastructure and to develop their economies. This special edition of Foreign Affairs, will present thought leadership spanning both MENA-centric and global issues, from health, to finance, to cyber policy, to resource management, to economic development strategies. As market needs and trends evolve in region, there is an opportunity to learn not only from the successes and challenges of other global sectors and economies, but also to find innovative solutions to complex problems specific to the MENA region, so that successes are increased, whole communities benefit as investment grows, and the transformational vision of government and industry is self-sustaining.

Donald L. Pressley and Nicholas J. Bahr / Booz Allen Hamilton

DONALD L. PRESSLEY is a Senior Vice President at Booz Allen Hamilton and General Manager of the Middle East North Africa office. NICHOLAS J. BAHR is a Principal at Booz Allen Hamilton and Regional Manager of the Middle East North Africa office. He leads the firm’s infrastructure business in the region.

Oil resources have made the desert bloom in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The growth that has occurred under the vision and leadership of Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan al Nahyan has been incredible. Now, the rulers of this dynamic economy face new challenges as well as new opportunities. One of these challenges is to find ways to sustain economic growth while meeting the country’s rapidly increasing demand for food, water, and power. In this article, we suggest viewing these challenges through the lens of a dynamic, holistic “megacommunity” and considering solutions by drawing on a known method of solving problems to deal with new challenges. We call this the “majlis approach.” The UAE has come a long way in just forty years. By considering these options for dealing with the complexities of today’s modern world, we believe that this young country can advance even more comprehensively. The UAE has seen phenomenal growth in its relatively short history. Even after oil was discovered in 1936, there were only a few permanent buildings and no paved roads well into the late sixties. The population in 1968, three

Booz Allen Hamilton

1

Donald L. Pressley and Nicholas J. Bahr

Meeting the Food, Water, and Power Scarcity Challenge in the United Arab Emirates: The “Majlis Approach”

years before the nation was born, was 180,226; in 2010, it reached 8,264,070, with expatriates accounting for about 88 percent of the total population.1 In 1971, Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan al Nahyan led a disparate community of Bedouin tribes to unite the seven Emirates, ruled by separate families, to form the UAE. At $348 billion, today’s gross domestic product (GDP) is 192 times what it was forty years ago. After Saudi Arabia, the UAE is the largest economy of the Middle East.2 These are incredible statistics for a small country of 83,600 square kilometers in the Persian Gulf, sandwiched at the tip of the Arabian Peninsula between Saudi Arabia and Oman. Today, the UAE is ranked sixth in the world’s known crude oil reserves and seventh in natural gas. With oil, Sheikh Zayed, the country’s first president, literally built a country out of some of the most inhospitable desert in the world, where summer temperatures can easily reach more than 50 degrees C, and annual rainfall is about 100 mm.

holds the vast majority of the country’s oil reserves, it is taking the lead in weaning the country from its oil dependence. In 2007, Abu Dhabi launched its Policy Agenda to diversify the economy and also published the Abu Dhabi Vision 2030,4 focusing government development on empowering the private sector; sustainable knowledge-based economy; modernizing the regulatory environment; optimizing the Emirates’ resources, infrastructure development, and environmental sustainability; and creating premium education, healthcare, and infrastructure assets. One of the most visible effects is the recent licensing of the Middle East’s first commercial nuclear power plant. Through the UAE’s Agreement 123 with the United States, the UAE will not retain any spent nuclear fuel within the country that could be used for reprocessing. The Braka nuclear power plant will come online in 2017, and the four reactors are expected to generate 5.6 gigawatts electrical by 2020. In 2010, Abu Dhabi became home to the Middle East’s first United Nations body, the International Renewable Energy Agency. Masdar City, the world’s first zero-carbon footprint city, with an expected future population of 40,000 inhabitants, is currently in its first phase of development and is part of the UAE’s new renewable energy image. A very impressive record for such a young country.

And the country’s incredible pace of development has not slowed. Euromonitor International’s Future Demographic report on the UAE projects the country’s workforce will increase 41 percent between now and 2030.3 In spite of the current global financial crisis—including one in Dubai, in which a real estate bubble burst in 2008, dropping property prices as much as 50 percent—Dubai International Airport, currently fourth in the world for global transit, has set the target to overtake London’s Heathrow Airport by 2015 to become the busiest international airport in the world. Both Emirates and Etihad Airlines are global leaders in long-haul aircraft purchases. Dubai advertises itself as one of the top ten destinations for British tourists, and the world’s tallest building, the Burj Khalifa, which opened in 2010, is at almost a kilometer in height, one of the top attractions. Abu Dhabi, capital of the UAE, often considered less glamorous and more traditional than the sparkling Dubai, is changing dramatically too. Saadyiat Island, contiguous to Abu Dhabi, will be the country’s cultural hub. The Louvre Museum Abu Dhabi and the Guggenheim (it will be the largest museum in the world) are slated to open around 2016. The Cleveland Clinic is building a state-of-the-art research hospital, and New York University and the Sorbonne both have Abu Dhabi campuses. Even with these accomplishments, the UAE is not standing still. The rulers recognize that an oil-based economy is not sustainable. They have set an economic vision to diversify the economy and lower the current percentage of the GDP based on oil revenues (one-third) by 2030. Because Abu Dhabi

2

Booz Allen Hamilton

However, the UAE is located in a volatile region. The Arab Spring is bringing unprecedented and unpredictable changes to its neighbors. Current confrontations between the Gulf Coordinating Council (GCC) and the West with Iran regarding regional politics and Iran’s nuclear program have increased anxiety. Civil war in Syria is spilling over its borders into Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan. Yet the UAE is a stable country with an open economy and is a close ally to the West. Although the UAE’s infrastructure and institutions are even younger than the country itself, it is in a unique position with its wealth and dynamic and forward-leaning leadership to be a regional and global leader in smart management of its critical resources.

The UAE and Much of the Region Are On the Knife’s Edge With Food, Water, and Power. If the UAE wants to continue its phenomenal growth—and sustain it at high levels—it will need to address the triad of food, water, and power challenges. Food is a basic need that must be met daily. As Dr. Eckart Woertz, visiting fellow at Princeton University’s Environmental Institute, pointed out recently at the 2012 Water and Food Security Conference in Abu Dhabi,5 “We need

Booz Allen Hamilton

3

Donald L. Pressley and Nicholas J. Bahr

Meeting the Food, Water, and Power Scarcity Challenge in the United Arab Emirates: The “Majlis Approach”

years before the nation was born, was 180,226; in 2010, it reached 8,264,070, with expatriates accounting for about 88 percent of the total population.1 In 1971, Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan al Nahyan led a disparate community of Bedouin tribes to unite the seven Emirates, ruled by separate families, to form the UAE. At $348 billion, today’s gross domestic product (GDP) is 192 times what it was forty years ago. After Saudi Arabia, the UAE is the largest economy of the Middle East.2 These are incredible statistics for a small country of 83,600 square kilometers in the Persian Gulf, sandwiched at the tip of the Arabian Peninsula between Saudi Arabia and Oman. Today, the UAE is ranked sixth in the world’s known crude oil reserves and seventh in natural gas. With oil, Sheikh Zayed, the country’s first president, literally built a country out of some of the most inhospitable desert in the world, where summer temperatures can easily reach more than 50 degrees C, and annual rainfall is about 100 mm.

holds the vast majority of the country’s oil reserves, it is taking the lead in weaning the country from its oil dependence. In 2007, Abu Dhabi launched its Policy Agenda to diversify the economy and also published the Abu Dhabi Vision 2030,4 focusing government development on empowering the private sector; sustainable knowledge-based economy; modernizing the regulatory environment; optimizing the Emirates’ resources, infrastructure development, and environmental sustainability; and creating premium education, healthcare, and infrastructure assets. One of the most visible effects is the recent licensing of the Middle East’s first commercial nuclear power plant. Through the UAE’s Agreement 123 with the United States, the UAE will not retain any spent nuclear fuel within the country that could be used for reprocessing. The Braka nuclear power plant will come online in 2017, and the four reactors are expected to generate 5.6 gigawatts electrical by 2020. In 2010, Abu Dhabi became home to the Middle East’s first United Nations body, the International Renewable Energy Agency. Masdar City, the world’s first zero-carbon footprint city, with an expected future population of 40,000 inhabitants, is currently in its first phase of development and is part of the UAE’s new renewable energy image. A very impressive record for such a young country.

And the country’s incredible pace of development has not slowed. Euromonitor International’s Future Demographic report on the UAE projects the country’s workforce will increase 41 percent between now and 2030.3 In spite of the current global financial crisis—including one in Dubai, in which a real estate bubble burst in 2008, dropping property prices as much as 50 percent—Dubai International Airport, currently fourth in the world for global transit, has set the target to overtake London’s Heathrow Airport by 2015 to become the busiest international airport in the world. Both Emirates and Etihad Airlines are global leaders in long-haul aircraft purchases. Dubai advertises itself as one of the top ten destinations for British tourists, and the world’s tallest building, the Burj Khalifa, which opened in 2010, is at almost a kilometer in height, one of the top attractions. Abu Dhabi, capital of the UAE, often considered less glamorous and more traditional than the sparkling Dubai, is changing dramatically too. Saadyiat Island, contiguous to Abu Dhabi, will be the country’s cultural hub. The Louvre Museum Abu Dhabi and the Guggenheim (it will be the largest museum in the world) are slated to open around 2016. The Cleveland Clinic is building a state-of-the-art research hospital, and New York University and the Sorbonne both have Abu Dhabi campuses. Even with these accomplishments, the UAE is not standing still. The rulers recognize that an oil-based economy is not sustainable. They have set an economic vision to diversify the economy and lower the current percentage of the GDP based on oil revenues (one-third) by 2030. Because Abu Dhabi

2

Booz Allen Hamilton

However, the UAE is located in a volatile region. The Arab Spring is bringing unprecedented and unpredictable changes to its neighbors. Current confrontations between the Gulf Coordinating Council (GCC) and the West with Iran regarding regional politics and Iran’s nuclear program have increased anxiety. Civil war in Syria is spilling over its borders into Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan. Yet the UAE is a stable country with an open economy and is a close ally to the West. Although the UAE’s infrastructure and institutions are even younger than the country itself, it is in a unique position with its wealth and dynamic and forward-leaning leadership to be a regional and global leader in smart management of its critical resources.

The UAE and Much of the Region Are On the Knife’s Edge With Food, Water, and Power. If the UAE wants to continue its phenomenal growth—and sustain it at high levels—it will need to address the triad of food, water, and power challenges. Food is a basic need that must be met daily. As Dr. Eckart Woertz, visiting fellow at Princeton University’s Environmental Institute, pointed out recently at the 2012 Water and Food Security Conference in Abu Dhabi,5 “We need

Booz Allen Hamilton

3

Donald L. Pressley and Nicholas J. Bahr

Meeting the Food, Water, and Power Scarcity Challenge in the United Arab Emirates: The “Majlis Approach”

to think about food security not only in terms of food availability, but rather as a political and social construct. People do not die of famine because there is not enough food but because they do not have enough money to buy it.” This certainly became evident during the 2007–2008 global food crisis. A sharp rise in oil prices shifted food producers to selling agricultural products as biofuels. With the increase in regional trade restrictions, food prices shot up. Although the UAE imports 85 percent of its foodstuffs, it rates much better than most countries in being food secure because it has the wealth to buy it on the international market. However, that is not a sustainable approach and, as was seen in 2007, it is susceptible to outside forces. As an example of the continual rise in the cost of food, U.S. wheat import prices rose 37 percent in 2010 from the prior year and 60 percent from the beginning of the season,6 making a significant impact on local food retailers, especially because the government is forcibly keeping certain retail food staples at stable and affordable prices.

person, 83 percent more water than the global average. This, coupled with a very arid climate, low groundwater recharge rates, and only about 3 percent fresh groundwater and no reliable perennial surface water resources, means that at current rates of agricultural use, fresh and moderately brackish groundwater will probably be depleted in twenty to forty years.11

The Ministry of Economy says that UAE food consumption is growing at a rate of 12 percent per year and the demand for food staples by 30 percent.7 A recent report released by Alpen Capital states that agriculture contributed 0.9 percent to the UAE’s GDP.8 Although the UAE, as well as other GCC countries, are securing food staples and buying farms in other countries such as Sudan, Vietnam, Pakistan, Brazil, and elsewhere, local events in those countries, especially the more volatile ones, could affect food imports. Clearly, there are multiple challenges in securing food sources abroad, stockpiling staples locally, and increasing local agriculture. With less than 1 percent arable land and a severe scarcity of water, growing sufficient foodstuffs locally is very difficult. To grow food, the UAE needs water. According to the Environment Agency of Abu Dhabi, approximately 79 percent of groundwater usage goes to agriculture.9 “Water is much more important than oil for the UAE. . . . We are very preoccupied by this issue,”10 emphasized Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi. He further emphasized, “I believe the problem lies in the fact that the population of the Arabian Peninsula is incessantly growing while the region today does not possess a lot of resources. . . . Today, water can be provided through desalination, but within decades the situation will be different, as there are no rivers in the region and no technology at present under our disposal to help meet the region’s demand on fresh water.” The UAE uses about 550 liters a day per

4

Booz Allen Hamilton

Currently, water policy is primarily based on supply rather than demand management, especially through expensive and energy-intensive desalination plants used to supply water to the domestic sector. Fragmented ownership and jurisdiction result in ad hoc and unplanned water-resources management and duplication of efforts. The Abu Dhabi Water and Electric Company calculates that peak power demand along with existing co-generation capacity may not be able to meet demand for water in only a few years. To meet the need for water, seawater must be desalinated. Dr. Sultan Ahmad al Jaber, CEO of Masdar, emphasizes that 70 percent of water costs are for power generation to desalinate, transport, store, and distribute it.12 The UAE’s hyper growth is a major demand on power production. The rapid and continual increase in population also brings a constantly increasing demand for air conditioning. In addition, the UAE’s economic diversification means a quickly growing manufacturing sector is drawing on power reserves. The UAE is building the world’s largest aluminum smelter plant, further exacerbating the need for increased power production. To handle these demands, the government is building additional power generation and distribution capability to meet its estimated peak power consumption growth forecast of about 11 percent a year over the next decade. This is one of highest growth rates in the world. The UAE has 7 percent of the world’s known oil reserves, is one of the largest oil exporters, and is number seven worldwide in gas exports, but in the last few years, it has become a net importer of natural gas. Although there are abundant and nearby natural gas reserves in neighboring Qatar—with one of the world’s largest known reserves—this trend is still worrisome because 70 percent of power generation comes directly from natural gas power plants.13 The UAE is hoping that its nuclear power plant will produce 25 percent of the power needs when it comes online in 2017. Although the UAE is one of the world’s leaders in renewable energy projects, especially with the $600 million Shams 1 project, one of the largest concentrated solar power plants in the world, it is unclear how this power mixture will meet future demand.

Booz Allen Hamilton

5

Donald L. Pressley and Nicholas J. Bahr

Meeting the Food, Water, and Power Scarcity Challenge in the United Arab Emirates: The “Majlis Approach”

to think about food security not only in terms of food availability, but rather as a political and social construct. People do not die of famine because there is not enough food but because they do not have enough money to buy it.” This certainly became evident during the 2007–2008 global food crisis. A sharp rise in oil prices shifted food producers to selling agricultural products as biofuels. With the increase in regional trade restrictions, food prices shot up. Although the UAE imports 85 percent of its foodstuffs, it rates much better than most countries in being food secure because it has the wealth to buy it on the international market. However, that is not a sustainable approach and, as was seen in 2007, it is susceptible to outside forces. As an example of the continual rise in the cost of food, U.S. wheat import prices rose 37 percent in 2010 from the prior year and 60 percent from the beginning of the season,6 making a significant impact on local food retailers, especially because the government is forcibly keeping certain retail food staples at stable and affordable prices.

person, 83 percent more water than the global average. This, coupled with a very arid climate, low groundwater recharge rates, and only about 3 percent fresh groundwater and no reliable perennial surface water resources, means that at current rates of agricultural use, fresh and moderately brackish groundwater will probably be depleted in twenty to forty years.11

The Ministry of Economy says that UAE food consumption is growing at a rate of 12 percent per year and the demand for food staples by 30 percent.7 A recent report released by Alpen Capital states that agriculture contributed 0.9 percent to the UAE’s GDP.8 Although the UAE, as well as other GCC countries, are securing food staples and buying farms in other countries such as Sudan, Vietnam, Pakistan, Brazil, and elsewhere, local events in those countries, especially the more volatile ones, could affect food imports. Clearly, there are multiple challenges in securing food sources abroad, stockpiling staples locally, and increasing local agriculture. With less than 1 percent arable land and a severe scarcity of water, growing sufficient foodstuffs locally is very difficult. To grow food, the UAE needs water. According to the Environment Agency of Abu Dhabi, approximately 79 percent of groundwater usage goes to agriculture.9 “Water is much more important than oil for the UAE. . . . We are very preoccupied by this issue,”10 emphasized Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi. He further emphasized, “I believe the problem lies in the fact that the population of the Arabian Peninsula is incessantly growing while the region today does not possess a lot of resources. . . . Today, water can be provided through desalination, but within decades the situation will be different, as there are no rivers in the region and no technology at present under our disposal to help meet the region’s demand on fresh water.” The UAE uses about 550 liters a day per

4

Booz Allen Hamilton

Currently, water policy is primarily based on supply rather than demand management, especially through expensive and energy-intensive desalination plants used to supply water to the domestic sector. Fragmented ownership and jurisdiction result in ad hoc and unplanned water-resources management and duplication of efforts. The Abu Dhabi Water and Electric Company calculates that peak power demand along with existing co-generation capacity may not be able to meet demand for water in only a few years. To meet the need for water, seawater must be desalinated. Dr. Sultan Ahmad al Jaber, CEO of Masdar, emphasizes that 70 percent of water costs are for power generation to desalinate, transport, store, and distribute it.12 The UAE’s hyper growth is a major demand on power production. The rapid and continual increase in population also brings a constantly increasing demand for air conditioning. In addition, the UAE’s economic diversification means a quickly growing manufacturing sector is drawing on power reserves. The UAE is building the world’s largest aluminum smelter plant, further exacerbating the need for increased power production. To handle these demands, the government is building additional power generation and distribution capability to meet its estimated peak power consumption growth forecast of about 11 percent a year over the next decade. This is one of highest growth rates in the world. The UAE has 7 percent of the world’s known oil reserves, is one of the largest oil exporters, and is number seven worldwide in gas exports, but in the last few years, it has become a net importer of natural gas. Although there are abundant and nearby natural gas reserves in neighboring Qatar—with one of the world’s largest known reserves—this trend is still worrisome because 70 percent of power generation comes directly from natural gas power plants.13 The UAE is hoping that its nuclear power plant will produce 25 percent of the power needs when it comes online in 2017. Although the UAE is one of the world’s leaders in renewable energy projects, especially with the $600 million Shams 1 project, one of the largest concentrated solar power plants in the world, it is unclear how this power mixture will meet future demand.

Booz Allen Hamilton

5

Donald L. Pressley and Nicholas J. Bahr

Clearly, there are value-chain links among food, water, and power. Supply is very limited in all cases, and demand is exceptionally high, one of the highest in the world, exacerbated by the UAE’s desire to continue its economic diversification and population growth. For the UAE to meet these challenges, it must view them together as a single system, not as disparate pieces or sectors of the economy.

Old Methods Won’t Work The food-water-power nexus must be looked at from a new vantage point— old methods will not meet these critical challenges. Currently, most countries view these challenges in a compartmented fashion. Problems are defined and discussed and solutions are debated, all in isolation. Many international conferences and platforms debate the issues in each of the three areas separately; rarely are they debated jointly. Stove-piped, vertical bureaucracies within most countries, including the UAE, stymie looking across sectors of society and industry and hinder innovation. Little lateral communication among food, water, and power bureaucracies occurs, few research resources are shared, and there is not enough thinking linking the three together. For example, the water sector focuses mostly on the following key questions for water usage: • What will the total demand for water be in the coming decades? • How many supplies will still be available? • What technical options for water supply and productivity exist to close the water gap?

results of considering all three components together. Much research and effort focuses on developing and deploying technology to help manage the challenges, but the statistics tell us that the demands are growing too quickly for such an approach to be sufficient to avert a crisis. Relying on technology solely to solve the problem, while still viewing the challenges in isolation, does not change the dynamic. How the challenges are viewed needs to change. As the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi has pointed out, much of the technology needed to readily solve the challenges is not in place, and it potentially will not be created and deployed in time. Individuals and the various sectors of society in the UAE are still not conscious of their own use of water and electricity. It is not uncommon for swimming pool owners to complain of leaking pools. Much of the agriculture is irrigated from groundwater sources. Many public buildings and hotels are over–air conditioned. Private companies and government organizations alike have little incentive to better manage their own consumption. Obviously, the public is not sufficiently aware of the importance of conservation. Bureaucracies are also working on the problems in their own isolation. As new infrastructure is built, there still is no tight linkage with how that new infrastructure incorporates better resource management. Stakeholders within the three individual sectors are not talking to each other, but more important, the community of stakeholders as a whole is not talking among themselves. The public, private, charity, and other nonprofit organizations (such as ecological and environmental groups) are also looking at the challenges through their own lenses and not across all three sectors.

• What resources are needed to implement them?

UAE as a World Laboratory to Develop a Smart Solution

• Do water users have the right incentives to change their behaviors and invest in water savings?

The UAE government Vision 2021 clearly lays out its formula “to be among the best countries in the world by 2021.”14 To meet this ambitious goal, it must meet its food, water, and power challenges in a sustainable way. The UAE can be at the forefront of addressing these challenges, not just for itself, but also for the world, by serving as a living laboratory demonstrating a smart solution. To do this, the UAE will need to look at its challenges from two primary perspectives—an integrated view of the challenges and the principles toward resolving them.

• How does government ensure water scarcity does not derail either economic or environmental health issues? These are very important questions that must be addressed in the microcosm of the water sector, but to actually solve the water challenges, food and power challenges need to be addressed in unison. Although the UAE, and the region, are starting to attack the problems from a supply-anddemand perspective, thought must be given as to how to optimize the

6

Meeting the Food, Water, and Power Scarcity Challenge in the United Arab Emirates: The “Majlis Approach”

Booz Allen Hamilton

Booz Allen Hamilton

7

Donald L. Pressley and Nicholas J. Bahr

Clearly, there are value-chain links among food, water, and power. Supply is very limited in all cases, and demand is exceptionally high, one of the highest in the world, exacerbated by the UAE’s desire to continue its economic diversification and population growth. For the UAE to meet these challenges, it must view them together as a single system, not as disparate pieces or sectors of the economy.

Old Methods Won’t Work The food-water-power nexus must be looked at from a new vantage point— old methods will not meet these critical challenges. Currently, most countries view these challenges in a compartmented fashion. Problems are defined and discussed and solutions are debated, all in isolation. Many international conferences and platforms debate the issues in each of the three areas separately; rarely are they debated jointly. Stove-piped, vertical bureaucracies within most countries, including the UAE, stymie looking across sectors of society and industry and hinder innovation. Little lateral communication among food, water, and power bureaucracies occurs, few research resources are shared, and there is not enough thinking linking the three together. For example, the water sector focuses mostly on the following key questions for water usage: • What will the total demand for water be in the coming decades? • How many supplies will still be available? • What technical options for water supply and productivity exist to close the water gap?

results of considering all three components together. Much research and effort focuses on developing and deploying technology to help manage the challenges, but the statistics tell us that the demands are growing too quickly for such an approach to be sufficient to avert a crisis. Relying on technology solely to solve the problem, while still viewing the challenges in isolation, does not change the dynamic. How the challenges are viewed needs to change. As the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi has pointed out, much of the technology needed to readily solve the challenges is not in place, and it potentially will not be created and deployed in time. Individuals and the various sectors of society in the UAE are still not conscious of their own use of water and electricity. It is not uncommon for swimming pool owners to complain of leaking pools. Much of the agriculture is irrigated from groundwater sources. Many public buildings and hotels are over–air conditioned. Private companies and government organizations alike have little incentive to better manage their own consumption. Obviously, the public is not sufficiently aware of the importance of conservation. Bureaucracies are also working on the problems in their own isolation. As new infrastructure is built, there still is no tight linkage with how that new infrastructure incorporates better resource management. Stakeholders within the three individual sectors are not talking to each other, but more important, the community of stakeholders as a whole is not talking among themselves. The public, private, charity, and other nonprofit organizations (such as ecological and environmental groups) are also looking at the challenges through their own lenses and not across all three sectors.

• What resources are needed to implement them?

UAE as a World Laboratory to Develop a Smart Solution

• Do water users have the right incentives to change their behaviors and invest in water savings?

The UAE government Vision 2021 clearly lays out its formula “to be among the best countries in the world by 2021.”14 To meet this ambitious goal, it must meet its food, water, and power challenges in a sustainable way. The UAE can be at the forefront of addressing these challenges, not just for itself, but also for the world, by serving as a living laboratory demonstrating a smart solution. To do this, the UAE will need to look at its challenges from two primary perspectives—an integrated view of the challenges and the principles toward resolving them.

• How does government ensure water scarcity does not derail either economic or environmental health issues? These are very important questions that must be addressed in the microcosm of the water sector, but to actually solve the water challenges, food and power challenges need to be addressed in unison. Although the UAE, and the region, are starting to attack the problems from a supply-anddemand perspective, thought must be given as to how to optimize the

6

Meeting the Food, Water, and Power Scarcity Challenge in the United Arab Emirates: The “Majlis Approach”

Booz Allen Hamilton

Booz Allen Hamilton

7

Donald L. Pressley and Nicholas J. Bahr

Meeting the Food, Water, and Power Scarcity Challenge in the United Arab Emirates: The “Majlis Approach”

An Integrated View of the Challenges

A Social Responsibility Pact—Using the Majlis Approach

A new approach is needed to look at the challenges holistically. The food, water, and power interfaces are really a complex “system of systems.” In reality, the UAE is a multi-layered complex of communities: federal government, Emirate government, local community, private industry, financial institutions, and, at the individual level, Emirati nationals and expatriates. All of these communities communicate with each other in numerous ways through various levels of interaction and interest. Therefore the food, water, and power sectors must communicate with a “megacommunity” of stakeholders. A megacommunity is the space in which the complex challenges of the food, water, and power sectors exist and must be addressed holistically as a single food-water-power system. In fact, the megacommunity is a lens through which to look at the food-water-power system in a new way. It is a collaborative environment where leaders of stakeholder groups interact according to their common interests while maintaining their unique priorities.

Viewing the UAE’s challenges as a system does not solve any of the problems; it only provides a method to look at them holistically. Because of the forward-leaning national leadership and the country’s wealth, the UAE is in a unique position not only to meet its food-water-power system challenges in the medium term but also to become a thought leader for the world in how to do it.

All of those stakeholder leaders are important for success. It is important to use the power of government to evoke action, but also the innovation of the private sector to spur change and sustainability. Government needs to continue to set optimized standards and regulate operations. The private sector needs to have a financial stake in the success of the food-water-power system but be free enough to innovate optimal solutions. However, the megacommunity is not a public-private partnership. It not only includes government and the private sector leaders, but also civil society leaders in the form of citizens, expatriates, and their community organizations such as the Red Crescent, religious groups, think tanks, and other community support networks. It really includes stakeholder leaders in all relevant sectors of society that could be viewed as part of the problem and part of the solution. For example, nationals and expatriates need to better understand how and have the incentive to smartly use precious water and power resources. Public service campaigns in schools and communities may need to be developed to help raise awareness. Financial incentives and penalties will probably need to be created to encourage citizens and expatriates alike to better conserve. Government at the federal and Emirate levels creates the policies that the country must implement. In addition, private companies can play an enabling role through innovative cost structures that give them the incentive to better manage their water and power consumption.

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Booz Allen Hamilton

Emirati governance is built on the Bedouin tradition of leadership meeting frequently and regularly with its citizens to discuss citizen concerns in a type of salon call a majlis. UAE leaders typically open their majlis to citizens on a weekly basis to hear grievances, suggestions for improvements, and requests for support, and to provide general guidance on citizenship. This majlis approach could be expanded to leaders of the various stakeholder groups in the UAE food-water-power system megacommunity. The majlis could serve as the vehicle to regularly reach out to all leaders in the megacommunity, jointly define the challenges, and, more important, together create the future solutions. For this approach to be effective, it would have to include all sectors of society, both nationals and expatriates, to create a social responsibility pact to optimize food-water-power system management. Recently, the UAE has successfully done something like this by reaching out to the community at large to discuss safety at the Braka nuclear power plant.

Eight Principles to Resolving the Challenges A pragmatic roadmap to implement and best manage the food-water-power system megacommunity, using the majlis approach, is illustrated in the following eight principles: 1. Use the majlis approach to create a shared, comprehensive, national vision. The majlis approach would entail UAE leadership continuing to bring together its citizens in these forums to define, discuss, and debate a national vision toward optimizing the country’s management of food, water, and power. This would be done at the national, Emirate, and local levels, and would require the entire megacommunity to participate. Not only nationals would be involved but also the leaders of the other stakeholder groups.

Booz Allen Hamilton

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Donald L. Pressley and Nicholas J. Bahr

Meeting the Food, Water, and Power Scarcity Challenge in the United Arab Emirates: The “Majlis Approach”

An Integrated View of the Challenges

A Social Responsibility Pact—Using the Majlis Approach

A new approach is needed to look at the challenges holistically. The food, water, and power interfaces are really a complex “system of systems.” In reality, the UAE is a multi-layered complex of communities: federal government, Emirate government, local community, private industry, financial institutions, and, at the individual level, Emirati nationals and expatriates. All of these communities communicate with each other in numerous ways through various levels of interaction and interest. Therefore the food, water, and power sectors must communicate with a “megacommunity” of stakeholders. A megacommunity is the space in which the complex challenges of the food, water, and power sectors exist and must be addressed holistically as a single food-water-power system. In fact, the megacommunity is a lens through which to look at the food-water-power system in a new way. It is a collaborative environment where leaders of stakeholder groups interact according to their common interests while maintaining their unique priorities.

Viewing the UAE’s challenges as a system does not solve any of the problems; it only provides a method to look at them holistically. Because of the forward-leaning national leadership and the country’s wealth, the UAE is in a unique position not only to meet its food-water-power system challenges in the medium term but also to become a thought leader for the world in how to do it.

All of those stakeholder leaders are important for success. It is important to use the power of government to evoke action, but also the innovation of the private sector to spur change and sustainability. Government needs to continue to set optimized standards and regulate operations. The private sector needs to have a financial stake in the success of the food-water-power system but be free enough to innovate optimal solutions. However, the megacommunity is not a public-private partnership. It not only includes government and the private sector leaders, but also civil society leaders in the form of citizens, expatriates, and their community organizations such as the Red Crescent, religious groups, think tanks, and other community support networks. It really includes stakeholder leaders in all relevant sectors of society that could be viewed as part of the problem and part of the solution. For example, nationals and expatriates need to better understand how and have the incentive to smartly use precious water and power resources. Public service campaigns in schools and communities may need to be developed to help raise awareness. Financial incentives and penalties will probably need to be created to encourage citizens and expatriates alike to better conserve. Government at the federal and Emirate levels creates the policies that the country must implement. In addition, private companies can play an enabling role through innovative cost structures that give them the incentive to better manage their water and power consumption.

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Emirati governance is built on the Bedouin tradition of leadership meeting frequently and regularly with its citizens to discuss citizen concerns in a type of salon call a majlis. UAE leaders typically open their majlis to citizens on a weekly basis to hear grievances, suggestions for improvements, and requests for support, and to provide general guidance on citizenship. This majlis approach could be expanded to leaders of the various stakeholder groups in the UAE food-water-power system megacommunity. The majlis could serve as the vehicle to regularly reach out to all leaders in the megacommunity, jointly define the challenges, and, more important, together create the future solutions. For this approach to be effective, it would have to include all sectors of society, both nationals and expatriates, to create a social responsibility pact to optimize food-water-power system management. Recently, the UAE has successfully done something like this by reaching out to the community at large to discuss safety at the Braka nuclear power plant.

Eight Principles to Resolving the Challenges A pragmatic roadmap to implement and best manage the food-water-power system megacommunity, using the majlis approach, is illustrated in the following eight principles: 1. Use the majlis approach to create a shared, comprehensive, national vision. The majlis approach would entail UAE leadership continuing to bring together its citizens in these forums to define, discuss, and debate a national vision toward optimizing the country’s management of food, water, and power. This would be done at the national, Emirate, and local levels, and would require the entire megacommunity to participate. Not only nationals would be involved but also the leaders of the other stakeholder groups.

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Donald L. Pressley and Nicholas J. Bahr

2. Think innovation, not shovels. Each of the three sectors typically focuses on fixing its own area. The stovepipes of the past will continue if we do not break down the barriers to innovation across all three sectors in a combined, dynamic way. This principle centers on ensuring that investments are focused on the comprehensive food-water-power system solution and not just individual sectors. The idea is to enable innovative thinking across the three sectors and to make investments as a single system with the three component sectors adding up to the whole. 3. Take the long and integrated view. Human nature pushes us to think in the more immediate timeframe. Although the UAE is a young country, it cannot afford to look at only the immediate situation. It must think long term, building infrastructure to last and in an integrated manner. To meet these challenges, the UAE must view food, water, and power together as one system, in an integrated fashion, with each of the three sectors overlapping the others and affecting the whole system. Fluctuations, good or bad, in one sector propagate throughout the food-waterpower system and affect the other sectors individually. 4. Rationalize the bureaucracy and policies. Policies need to be built that lead to the overall integration and management of the food-waterpower system. Each of the three sectors should be evaluated to fit into the overall system. If policies are not thought out carefully in one sector, they can have unintended consequences on the others or the overall system itself. Bureaucracies and policies should be sized correctly to ensure that all three sectors work toward the same common system goal. Bureaucracies and policies are the enablers of the food-waterpower dynamic. 5. No country can afford to buy its way out of the problem. For sustainable development, government funding is not the sole solution, nor a sustainable one. It is important to unleash private capital into the infrastructure market to jointly finance an integrated solution. Based on current conditions and trends, it is not possible for the UAE to buy its way out. Looking at the problem and solution holistically and in an integrated form is the best way to optimize system resources. 6. Plan regionally, think holistically. Although Abu Dhabi must meet its challenges, Dubai its own, and the other Emirates their own, the outcome should be viewed as a national priority and a national solution.

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Meeting the Food, Water, and Power Scarcity Challenge in the United Arab Emirates: The “Majlis Approach”

For example, selling electricity produced in Abu Dhabi to the northern Emirates would help them meet their power needs without large-scale independent investment. Or joint Emirate-owned companies could team together, combining the best of those Emirates to address a region of the country’s challenges. Because the UAE was constitutionally created with a weak central government, the megacommunity view and the majlis approach give the country the ability to maintain its traditional culture yet solve its problems in an efficient way. 7. Make resilience a forethought, not an afterthought. Cyber-attacks on infrastructure are increasing around the world at an alarming rate. A more tightly linked food-water-power system is vulnerable to singlepoint failures, such as the electrical grid failure in the northeastern United States in 2003, which was caused by a storm downing a tree in Canada, resulting in the world’s third-largest blackout in history. A sustainable food-water-power system must also be resilient to price fluctuations in the marketplace, terrorist attacks, and the general failure of infrastructure technology over time. Redundancies will need to be built into the system. 8. Build for the next century, not for the last one. The leadership of Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew in 1959 and beyond transformed Singapore from a sleepy village into an international hub and world leader for a range of industries. Investments in the United States in the transcontinental railroad almost 200 years ago and President Dwight D. Eisenhower’s interstate highway system in the 1950s transformed the U.S. economy and allowed the easy and cheap movement of goods and services across the country and into almost every community. Those infrastructure projects were not built for a short-term problem, but rather toward a long-term solution that is central to a country’s economic engine and prosperous future.

Concluding Thoughts The UAE has moved well along in its journey of progress into a sustainable development mode. The UAE Minister of Foreign Trade Sheikha Lubna bint Khalid Al Qasimi outlined many of those advances recently at a session of the 2012 United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20). She emphasized the UAE’s commitment to meet the food, water, and power

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Donald L. Pressley and Nicholas J. Bahr

2. Think innovation, not shovels. Each of the three sectors typically focuses on fixing its own area. The stovepipes of the past will continue if we do not break down the barriers to innovation across all three sectors in a combined, dynamic way. This principle centers on ensuring that investments are focused on the comprehensive food-water-power system solution and not just individual sectors. The idea is to enable innovative thinking across the three sectors and to make investments as a single system with the three component sectors adding up to the whole. 3. Take the long and integrated view. Human nature pushes us to think in the more immediate timeframe. Although the UAE is a young country, it cannot afford to look at only the immediate situation. It must think long term, building infrastructure to last and in an integrated manner. To meet these challenges, the UAE must view food, water, and power together as one system, in an integrated fashion, with each of the three sectors overlapping the others and affecting the whole system. Fluctuations, good or bad, in one sector propagate throughout the food-waterpower system and affect the other sectors individually. 4. Rationalize the bureaucracy and policies. Policies need to be built that lead to the overall integration and management of the food-waterpower system. Each of the three sectors should be evaluated to fit into the overall system. If policies are not thought out carefully in one sector, they can have unintended consequences on the others or the overall system itself. Bureaucracies and policies should be sized correctly to ensure that all three sectors work toward the same common system goal. Bureaucracies and policies are the enablers of the food-waterpower dynamic. 5. No country can afford to buy its way out of the problem. For sustainable development, government funding is not the sole solution, nor a sustainable one. It is important to unleash private capital into the infrastructure market to jointly finance an integrated solution. Based on current conditions and trends, it is not possible for the UAE to buy its way out. Looking at the problem and solution holistically and in an integrated form is the best way to optimize system resources. 6. Plan regionally, think holistically. Although Abu Dhabi must meet its challenges, Dubai its own, and the other Emirates their own, the outcome should be viewed as a national priority and a national solution.

10

Booz Allen Hamilton

Meeting the Food, Water, and Power Scarcity Challenge in the United Arab Emirates: The “Majlis Approach”

For example, selling electricity produced in Abu Dhabi to the northern Emirates would help them meet their power needs without large-scale independent investment. Or joint Emirate-owned companies could team together, combining the best of those Emirates to address a region of the country’s challenges. Because the UAE was constitutionally created with a weak central government, the megacommunity view and the majlis approach give the country the ability to maintain its traditional culture yet solve its problems in an efficient way. 7. Make resilience a forethought, not an afterthought. Cyber-attacks on infrastructure are increasing around the world at an alarming rate. A more tightly linked food-water-power system is vulnerable to singlepoint failures, such as the electrical grid failure in the northeastern United States in 2003, which was caused by a storm downing a tree in Canada, resulting in the world’s third-largest blackout in history. A sustainable food-water-power system must also be resilient to price fluctuations in the marketplace, terrorist attacks, and the general failure of infrastructure technology over time. Redundancies will need to be built into the system. 8. Build for the next century, not for the last one. The leadership of Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew in 1959 and beyond transformed Singapore from a sleepy village into an international hub and world leader for a range of industries. Investments in the United States in the transcontinental railroad almost 200 years ago and President Dwight D. Eisenhower’s interstate highway system in the 1950s transformed the U.S. economy and allowed the easy and cheap movement of goods and services across the country and into almost every community. Those infrastructure projects were not built for a short-term problem, but rather toward a long-term solution that is central to a country’s economic engine and prosperous future.

Concluding Thoughts The UAE has moved well along in its journey of progress into a sustainable development mode. The UAE Minister of Foreign Trade Sheikha Lubna bint Khalid Al Qasimi outlined many of those advances recently at a session of the 2012 United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20). She emphasized the UAE’s commitment to meet the food, water, and power

Booz Allen Hamilton

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Donald L. Pressley and Nicholas J. Bahr

challenges. Sheikha Lubna cited how next year the UAE will host the World Future Energy Summit, the International Water Summit, the International Renewable Energy Conference, the International Renewable Energy Agency General Assembly, and the Zayed Future Energy Prize Award Ceremony. In her remarks she emphasized, “We believe that such gatherings can help foster the deeper international cooperation essential for tackling the world’s major challenges, especially the energy-water nexus. So our commitment to sustainable development shapes both our domestic policy and our international cooperation. Both are rooted deeply in the values of our country, shaped above all by our founding father the late Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nayhan.”15 She further stressed, “Let us therefore agree to a set of priority areas, including energy, water, education, and food security.” His Excellency Saeed Mohammed Al Tayer, vice chairman of the Dubai Supreme Council of Energy, is a strong advocate for looking at the challenges as a single system. He recently announced cooperation with the United Nations Development Program to highlight recommendations of the recent Sustainable Arabia Clean Energy Conference hosted in Dubai. He emphasized that new sustainable development goals should address food, water, and energy. The Dubai Integrated Energy Strategy 2030 was recently launched. “Barriers such as energy subsidies, reforming legislation, and institutional frameworks need to be overcome,”16 said Al Tayer. “As per the recommendations of the regional conference, the Middle East suffers from food insecurity with different degrees; there is a strong need for effective governance for informed decision-making to shed light on the role played by society, especially when we come to tackle the complex interconnectivity between the energy-water-food-climate, which is currently lacking in the region,” he concluded. The Dubai Electricity and Water Authority has twenty separate initiatives in this area. Clearly, the UAE leadership is viewing the challenges as a food-water-power system and through the lens of a megacommunity. Numerous programs and initiatives have been put in place or are in development. The next step is to ensure that all of these programs are integrated using the eight principles and that regular engagement occurs among leaders of the stakeholder megacommunity. Success in the UAE can be an inspiration, not just in the region but also around the world, to help solve one of the most vexing problems of the modern age.

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The Fertile Continent: Africa, Agriculture’s Final Frontier Roger Thurow / FOREIGN AFFAIRS

Roger Thurow is Senior Fellow on Global Agriculture and Food Policy at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. He is a co-author, with Scott Kilman, of Enough: Why the World’s Poorest Starve in an Age of Plenty.

Throughout this past summer, in the long-suffering hills of western Rwanda, legions of farmers toiled at their sloped plots. With hoes and axes, they crafted flat, wide terraces and a simple water-management system that would keep valuable topsoil in place. Their efforts were part of a $800 million investment program supported by the United States and other international donors that is meant to boost Rwanda’s agricultural production and reduce its dependence on food aid. The farmers were reshaping their land in the hope that a new watershed, along with better-quality seeds and fertilizer, would double or triple their harvests of corn, potatoes, beans, and rice by the next season. As he patrolled the hillsides one day last June, Innocent Musabyimana, the project’s manager in the Ministry of Agriculture, expressed a kind of desperate optimism. “To make our agriculture sustainable, we have to do this,” he said. “Ninety percent of the country is like this, all hills. If we don’t do anything, in 40 years, with the erosion, the farms will be gone.” Musabyimana opened his arms wide. “This,” he said, taking in the sweeping panorama, “is our future.” He meant the future of Rwanda and the future of Africa. But he might as well have been talking about the future of the world, too. For what is happening on the hills near Lake Kivu is at the vanguard of an effort to reverse years of neglect in agricultural development, tackle widespread chronic hunger, and satisfy the world’s ever-expanding appetite.

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