Market Review March 2015

The International Oilseed Market

Grain Oilseeds/Oilmeals Other Feedstuffs Germany The International Oilseed Market

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Table 1: World Crop Production Table 2: Wheat Trade Table 3: Corn Trade Table 4: Barley Trade Table 5: Soybean Trade Table 6: Rapeseed Trade Table 7: EU-28 Grain Production Table 8: EU-28 Oilseed Production Table 9: EU-28 Export and Import Commitments

11 12 12 12 12 12 13 14 15

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ADM Germany GmbH - Market Review March 30, 2015

Grain EU Wheat: Prices are still under pressure, both for old and new crop wheat. There is no demand for old-crop wheat. Plenty of offers from originators and sellers are available on the market but do not generate any buying interest. In the course of the past month, the prices for physical goods out of the old crop fell by about 5 €/t and those for old-crop wheat by 2–3 €/t. New-crop wheat from the northern EU region for Aug-Sep positions is not competitive compared to that from the Black Sea region. One reason for this is to be seen in the recovery of the quotations on the Matif which however are still much lower than on the CBOT and in Kansas. Weather conditions in Europe continue to be favourable.

EU Malting Barley: As the malt industry has already covered its demand to a large extent, it is difficult to market the remaining quantities. The premium for French malting barley over the price for UK or Scandinavian barley, which stayed in place for quite a long time, has vanished. After sowing for the next harvest has already started in France, Germany, the UK and Scandinavia are following suit now. Due to the current favourable weather conditions sowing might be completed very quickly. Prices have so far not shown a lot of momentum and recently followed those for feed barley. International Malting Barley: The Australian barley has almost entirely been placed in the (Chinese) market. Canadian malting barley continues to be not competitive (qualityand price-wise). There is only sporadic buying interest for new-crop goods. We expect a slight increase in the global malting barley acreage. For China, particularly the next French winter barley harvest is still of interest.

EU Maize: With the continuing weakness of the euro against the US dollar, quotations on the European commodity futures exchange as well as prices for the physical goods have firmed. The weaker euro has made imports from the Black Sea region unattractive and French maize for export to third countries more competitive. Due to this situation market activities were reduced to a minimum. Consumers are well covered until May and farmers hope for higher prices before they sell the remaining 25 % out of the old crop. Prices for the new crop continue to be higher than those for spot delivery, although the acreage in the EU-28 is expected to remain nearly unchanged on year and the new marketing year is forecast to start with high beginning stocks.

EU Feed Barley: EU exports to third countries have slowed down in recent weeks which led to a temporary price decline. However, growing demand from the compound feed producers has resulted in a price stabilisation and even a slight price increase in the past few days.

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ADM Germany GmbH - Market Review March 30, 2015

Oilseeds/Oilmeals Soybeans: In March the market was dominated by the anticipated large soybean crops in South America and a huge carryout in North America. Thus the quotations on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) fell by 80 UScent/bu. The prices on the physical market, however, firmed and were even as much as 15 UScent/bu higher than the February month end prices on some days. Chinese buyers have been more than willing to take all the market would throw at them. So China should have covered its demand now by 82% for April, 90% for May, and 42% for June. With firm premiums in Brazil, a few more cargoes have traded to China and Europe than would have been expected early in the month.

Rapeseed Meal: Prices are still fluctuating within a range of only +/-10 €/t. However, the price fluctuations for the new crop are less pronounced than those for the old crop. As no clear trend is visible, a slight hesitation is being felt among the market participants, leading to only moderate sales activity. The sales margin of the crush mills continues to be poor. The problem is the lack of demand for oil so that rapeseed meal has to take over a greater share of the margin than before, but prices for rapeseed meal are already higher than those for soybean meal. There are still almost no offers from the Black Sea region and the Baltics on the market. Sunseed Meal: Prices continued their downward trend and fell by a further 10-15 US$/t over the course of March. This is due to the still low demand from the export destinations, although many favourable offers are available, mainly for short-term delivery dates. Only French consumers showed some buying interest and bought quantities for delivery up to the beginning of the next harvest. Especially in Italy, the continuing high level of stocks is dominating the situation and sellers do not find a buyer on the market. The same applies to France and Spain, where the already ample supplies increased even more recently due to further arrivals.

Rapeseed: Driven by the weak euro, prices increased distinctly. Most of all the demand for old-crop rapeseed exceeded the supply recently, mainly due to farmers’ reluctance to sell on the one hand, and due to import delays and increases in the processing capacity on the other hand. Apart from this, there is almost no buying interest as a result of the weak biodiesel market and crush margins that can hardly be considered adequate. With regard to the new crop, the situation has not changed much in recent weeks. No more quantities have been offered as a yield forecast cannot be made yet. More sales activity is to be expected after Easter.

Other Feedstuffs Palmkernel Expeller: After big shipments had been made to New Zealand at the begin-

ning of March, business calmed down in the origins. Accordingly, prices first increased

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ADM Germany GmbH - Market Review March 30, 2015

Corn By-Products: No fresh impetus was noted with sales remaining steady, but small.

before falling again. Palmkernel expeller use was quite low in Europe. Coverage for the spring months seems to be more than sufficient. Due to the relatively low use of palm in compound feed, processors are even building up small stocks.

Molasses: The market for beet molasses is calm. Seeding for the new campaign has started about 10 days later than last year. The acreage is likely to be reduced by 15 to 25 %, depending on the region.

Beetpulp Pellets: Prices in the EU do not change much as only few sales are being made. On the international market, Egypt remains the most active buyer on a weekly basis with market prices falling.

Glycerine: The supply situation for the feed industry has become extremely tight. The decrease in production has led to a significant price increase.

Citruspulp Pellets: At the end of March, processing in Florida will resume. We do not expect any notable exports.

Germany In Germany, the vegetation period has started at the proper time this year after the rather mild winter. Temperatures are around the level that is typical for this time of the year so that they allow for an undisturbed vegetation start of the winter crops. Seeding of spring crops, as for example spring barley and sugar beets, has begun and the second fertilizer application has already been completed. The crops are – almost without exception – in good shape. Only the fact that no heavy frosts had occurred over the winter period could lead to a higher disease pressure on the plants. In this respect especially some rapeseed crops in northern German are to be mentioned which are infected with clubroot. Up to now, the beginning typical dry spring weather conditions have not had any impact on the crops.

Ernährung - BLE) reports that compound feed production in Germany increased to 9.4 mln t from July to November 2014 compared to the 8.6 mln t produced in the same period of the previous year. The total included 2.8 (2.6) mln t of feed for cattle (including calves), 3.9 (3.4) mln t for pigs and 2.6 (2.5) mln t for poultry. According to the Federal Office of Economics and Export Control (Bundesamt für Wirtschaft und Ausfuhrkontrolle), fuel use reached 1.46 mln t in January 2015 and was thus slightly higher compared to the 1.43 mln t used in January 2014. The total included a bioethanol share of 66,000 (84,000) t. Diesel use amounted to 2.8 (2.7) mln t including 162,000 (167,000) t biodiesel and vegetable oil for fuel use.

The Federal Office for Agriculture and Food (Bundesanstalt für Landwirtschaft und

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ADM Germany GmbH - Market Review March 30, 2015

The International Oilseed Market The global oilseed markets were quite calm over the past month. After the big soybean harvest last summer in North America conditions for soybean development in South America were favorable as well. As a result, soybean prices have been around 10 US$/bu since the start of January. The price quoted on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) for the front-month soybean contract was 9.66 US$/bu on March 30th 2015. During the same period, the rapeseed price also stabilised on the Matif in Paris and remained between 360 and 370 €/t. The decisive question from today on is how comfortable supply will be over the next months respectively if there are developments which could change the picture. This report provides more detail on the background to the latest developments and the main factors affecting pricing in the next few months.

(81) mln t. The global ending stocks-to-use ratio will also increase accordingly to 20.3 (16.4)%, which would be an unprecedented level. Global soybean production is expected to rise by 18 mln t to a new record level of 315 (previous year: 284) mln t. Following last autumn's record harvest in the USA of 108.0 (91.4) mln t, the harvests in South America will probably also be at a new record level. In Brazil, growing conditions were generally good. Only in parts of the north-eastern growing regions (Bahia, Goias and Minas Gerais), which together make up around 15% of the national soybean acreage, did the crops suffer from unusually dry weather conditions. However, good conditions for crop development in the other soybean-growing regions should make up for the crop losses expected in these regions. New record yields are expected due to almost perfect growing conditions, especially in Rio Grande do Sul that is the southernmost soybean-growing region. The acreage has also been increased this marketing year by a further 5% to 31.5 (30.1) mln ha. The USDA is therefore expecting a harvest of 94.5 (86.7) mln t. In comparison to local forecasts, this estimate is towards the upper end of the spectrum. The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture reduced its estimate in mid-March by almost 1.3 mln t to 93.3 mln t.

In its latest report of 10 March, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates production of the seven most important oilseeds (soybeans, rapeseed, sunflowers, peanuts, cotton seed, copra and palm kernel) at 532 mln t in the 2014/15 marketing year. This would be another significant increase on the record level of 504 mln t in the last marketing year. The main reason for the expected increase in production is the improved yield forecast of 2.28 (previous year: 2.20) t/ha. Global oilseed use, at 506 mln t, is expected to be much higher than the previous year's 490 mln t, meaning a rise for the 25th consecutive year. Despite the rise in use, ending stocks are expected to continue to recover to a level of 103

In Argentina, the soybean harvest has only just begun. Weather conditions were almost perfect throughout the various stages of soybean development. There was sufficient rainfall at the time of sowing, during early devel-

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ADM Germany GmbH - Market Review March 30, 2015

opment and flowering, so the soybeans were consistently in very good condition. Although heavy rainfall in Cordoba at the end of February led to some local flooding, this is expected to have relatively little effect on the whole production volume. The very good conditions in northern Argentina at present are also a major factor in producing another good overall harvest. The USDA currently forecasts Argentinian production at 56.0 mln t, which would mean a rise of 2.0 mln t compared with the previous year.

soybeans, although exports and crush are also at a very high level. The largest consumer, as in previous years, continues to be China, which has imported almost 28 mln t of soybeans since the start of the marketing year from the US. This is 67% of total exports from the USA. Crush, at 25.5 mln t from September to February, is at the previous year's record level. For the whole marketing year, exports are estimated at 48.7 (44.8) mln t and crush at 48.9 (47.2) mln t. Once again, these figures impressively demonstrate the continued high demand for protein feed this year. Despite high demand, ending stocks are expected to rise sharply because of the very good harvest in 2014. The USDA is currently estimating ending stocks of 10.5 (previous year: 2.5) mln t, which would correspond to an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 20.2 (previous year: 5.0)%. This would be the highest rate in the last 5 years.

Paraguay is also expected to have a higher production than in previous years. The USDA is currently assuming a harvest of 8.5 (8.2) mln t. It is, however, questionable whether this will actually be achieved, as yields on the so far harvested areas have been comparatively low. In total, the production volume of the three most important soybean-producing countries in South America should be around 10 mln t higher than in the previous year. Despite higher production levels, exports from the three countries are not expected to rise and even to fall in Brazil from 46.8 to 46.0 mln t. With regard to crush, the USDA is so far assuming there will be higher demand in all three countries. In Brazil, it could rise to 37.6 (36.2) mln t, in Argentina to 39.2 (36.2) mln t and in Paraguay to 3.6 (3.4) mln t.

Overall, global soybean use is expected to continue to rise to 289 (273) mln t. However, the very good production result could cause global ending stocks to rise to 90 (66) mln t. This would correspond to a stocks-to-use ratio of 31.0%, which would be a sharp rise on the previous year's 24.4% and would represent a record figure. The proportion of the total global acreage planted with genetically modified (GM) soybeans continued to increase in 2014 according to information from the International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-Biotech Applications (ISAAA). In 2013, it was still at 79% and is estimated at 82% for 2014. In absolute terms, the GM-soybean acreage has increased from 84.5 mln ha to 90.5 mln ha. The main soybean-growing countries, such as the USA,

However, as demand will not rise quite as much as supplies, ending stocks are also expected to rise significantly. The estimate is now 24.6 (previous year: 16.5) mln t for Brazil and 34.7 (29.0) mln t for Argentina at the end of US marketing year (Sep/Aug). The USA also continue to have large supplies of

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ADM Germany GmbH - Market Review March 30, 2015

Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay, have been growing almost nothing but GM soybeans for years. In Brazil, another increase in the acreage is estimated for 2014/15 by the Brazilian firm of consultants, CELERES, to 29.1 mln ha in comparison to 27.4 mln ha in the previous year. The GM share of the total soybean acreage will therefore increase to 93.2% (previous year: 91.8%). As in other soybeangrowing countries, demand for so-called "stacked" events, i.e. varieties containing a combination of several resistance genes, is also rising in Brazil. In 2013/14, only 8% of the soybean acreage was planted with herbicide- and insect-resistant varieties, this year it is an estimated 16.5% of the acreage. However, the herbicide-resistant varieties continue to dominate. In Brazil, event CV-127 from BASF and Empraba was already approved in 2009 and may be grown over large areas this year. This event has not yet been approved for import into the EU. The USA is also growing GM soybeans that have not yet been fully approved for the EU. These include the HOS event from Pioneer ("Plenish"), which as well as being resistant to herbicide also produces an increased amount of oleic acid, and the GM soybean MON87705xMON89788 ("Vistive Gold") from Monsanto, which also has higher quality oleic acid. As far as EU imports are concerned, these events are covered by the regulations for a "technical solution" if they are intended to be used in feed. According to these regulations, imported goods may contain up to 0.1% unapproved GM events. However, it has proven to be very difficult to comply with this threshold value as soon as commercial cultivation becomes widespread. It is expected that these events together with 10 other pending GM events will be approved

this April. Another 10 soybean events are still being considered in the EU approval process. After being established in November 2014, the new EU Commission announced that it would revise the approval procedure for the import of GM organisms into the EU. According to the latest information, three options are currently being discussed at an EU level: no change to the current procedure, certain amendments to the approval procedure, or EU member states are given the opportunity to make their own decision on imports. The last option, however, raises the question of how such a regulation could be squared with EU single market legislation, and which alternatives could be used to replace soybean meal in the event of an actual ban on imports. Global rapeseed production in the 2014/15 marketing year is at 71.3 mln t, according to the USDA, meaning another slight increase on last year's record production of 71.2 mln t. In summer 2014, yields in the EU rose to an unprecedented level. The total harvest of 24.1 mln t was far more than the previous year's harvest of 21.1 mln t. The sharp rise in production was mainly due to the almost perfect weather conditions over almost all of the EU. Yields reached a level of 3.55 t/ha, which was a 12% increase on the previous harvest and a 9% increase on the previous record set in 2009. Harvests in the other major rapeseedproducing countries were also way above the average of recent years. For example, production in Canada was 15.5 (average for the last 5 years: 14.4) mln t. In Ukraine and Australia – both major suppliers to the EU market – production reached 2.2 (1.7) mln t and 3.4 (3.1) mln t, respectively.

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ADM Germany GmbH - Market Review March 30, 2015

Due to the large harvests last summer, the rapeseed price initially fell sharply on the Matif. Between the end of April and the end of September, the contract price for the front month concerned fell by almost 100 €/t from 416 €/t to 318 €/t. However, as mentioned at the start, prices have since stabilised and have recently even become established. In particular, the rapeseed price reacted to the high demand for oil mill crush in the EU, which has been close to a record level so far this year. From July to December 2014, EU crush was at 13.5 mln t, and consequently around 5% higher than the previous year's already very high figure of 12.8 mln t. Consequently, the USDA expects rapeseed crush in the EU to reach 24.7 mln t for the entire marketing year, which is again considerably higher than the 23.9 mln t of last year. Despite high use, stocks are, however, expected to rise sharply again as a result of the very large harvest and are currently estimated at 2.6 (2.0) mln t.

also result in a reduction in the amount required. The GHG quota defines the reduction in CO2 emissions expected to be achieved by the fuel mix, including biofuels, in comparison to a purely mineral mix. Current data show that the GHG reduction potential of blended biofuels is very good and will probably lead to a reduction in the volume required for Germany. In principle, the soybean harvest is now expected to be largely established in South America and there is not a lot of room for major surprises for the market anymore. It is only the Brazilian harvest where estimates vary more widely. However, it is assumed that the harvest in South America will exceed the previous year's level, so market participants are slowly turning their attention to the development of winter crops and the sowing of spring crops in the Northern Hemisphere. In so doing, the main focus of attention is on which crops farmers in the USA will decide to plant. Corn poses the greatest competition to soybeans here. The crucial factor often cited is the ratio of the prices quoted for soybeans to the prices quoted for corn for contracts on the CBOT, which are due after the harvest. The general rule of thumb often applied is that a price ratio of more than 2.2:1 would favour extending soybean cultivation, although this obviously also greatly depends on the input costs, such as fertiliser.

However, there are still many unanswered questions concerning demand for rapeseed oil in the EU. This particularly concerns its use in biodiesel, as regulations influencing use have come into force in various EU countries in 2015. For example, in 2015, the blending rate was increased in Italy from 4.5% to 5.0%, in Finland from 6% to 8% and in France from 7% to 8%, which should have a positive effect on biodiesel use. However, the fact that, in 2015, Poland will for the first time be able to count various biodiesel types twice against the quota (e.g. biodiesel from used cooking fats and oils) and that this type of use is no longer limited in Italy is expected to have a negative impact. The switch from the volumetric quota to a greenhouse gas reduction quota (GHG quota) in Germany will probably

The current price ratio is 2.4:1, which indicates that the soybean acreage will be extended in comparison to last year. This is, however, only an indication and this is why the USDA's report on Prospective Plantings is eagerly awaited on 31 March. In this report,

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ADM Germany GmbH - Market Review March 30, 2015

the USDA publishes its initial acreage estimates for 2015 based on a survey of US farmers' planting decisions. In February, the USDA's initial estimate was that the soybean acreage would be 83.5 (previous year: 83.7) mln acres or 33.8 (33.9) mln ha and the corn acreage would be 89.0 (90.6) mln acres or 36.0 (36.7) mln ha. The market information service Informa Economics most recently predicted that the soybean acreage would increase to 87.5 mln acres or 35.4 mln ha, whereas the corn acreage would total 88.5 mln acres or 35.9 mln ha. In spite of the larger acreage, Informa is assuming that there will be a slight fall in total production in 2015 to 3.902 (previous year: 3.969) bln bu or 106 (108) mln t. Although the yield, at an average of 45.0 bu/acre, is still the second-highest of all time, it is still less than the previous year's record yield of 47.8 bu/acre. Exports are expected to amount to 1.800 (1.825) bln bu or 49.0 (49.6) mln t, crush to 1.850 (1.800) bln bu or 50.4 (49.0) mln t and ending stocks to 492 (430) mln bu or 13.3 (11.7) mln t. If production in the USA turns out to be anywhere near as high as forecast by Informa Economics, the global soybean supply situation – with due consideration for the large harvest in South America – should improve significantly again in comparison to the previous year, which was also very comfortable.

Future conditions for crop development should, therefore, be followed closely. The same applies to demand from the biodiesel industry, which is difficult to predict due to the aforementioned developments. It remains to be seen how the planted areas will develop in Canada and Australia, where the price difference between rapeseed and wheat will determine the final acreage. Sunflower seed supplies could remain at a similar level to the last marketing year. There may be a reduction in the EU acreage but the acreages in Ukraine and Russia should be for the most part unchanged on year and benefiting from lower input costs compared to maize. The analysts of Informa Economics estimate Russia’s sunseed acreage to remain stable at 6.8 mln ha and in Ukraine they expect only a slight reduction by 100,000 ha to 6.1 mln ha. The harvest in Argentina is of current interest and is expected to be better than assumed for a long time due to higher-thanexpected yields. It should, however, be noted that Argentina’s production is no longer as important as just a few years ago, and that suppliers from the Black Sea region have a much greater influence on the global market. As usual, in the coming months, market participants have still to take into account that prices for agricultural commodities may not only be determined by the fundamental data but also by political developments which, in return, may have an important impact on currency exchange rates and the oil price.

The situation in the rapeseed market is, however, expected to be more tense in 2015/16. Although, like last year, the rapeseed crop is expected to have survived the winter well in Europe and Ukraine, it is unlikely that the previous year's record yields can be repeated in all EU countries. Yields still greatly depend on the weather conditions from April to June.

With Compliments, ADM Germany GmbH

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ADM Germany GmbH, Market Review March 30, 2015

Table 1: World Crop Production Production (mln tons)

Area (mln ha)

2014/15**

2013/14*

2012/13

2014/15**

2013/14*

2012/13

2,475.4 439.3 51.1 44.0 35.8 492.7 237.2 98.8 62.4 322.5

2,473.1 431.3 66.2 47.2 40.4 489.5 242.8 87.0 60.9 302.5

2,266.8 353.0 51.6 47.6 35.5 476.2 240.1 66.1 42.7 279.7

700.6 57.7 13.9 9.5 19.2 93.5 98.0 40.9 14.5 57.5

705.2 59.2 15.8 9.7 18.9 92.8 99.3 40.5 15.3 57.2

690.4 60.0 14.8 10.7 18.3 91.5 97.4 37.1 14.1 57.2

WORLD WHEAT (Jul/Jun)*** USA Canada Argentina Australia China India FSU-12 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan EU-28

724.8 55.1 29.3 12.5 23.6 126.0 95.9 112.6 59.0 24.3 14.4 155.5

716.1 58.1 37.5 10.5 26.9 121.9 93.5 103.9 52.1 22.3 16.5 144.2

658.5 61.3 27.2 9.3 22.9 121.0 94.9 77.8 37.7 15.8 11.3 134.8

222.1 18.8 9.5 4.2 13.8 24.1 30.6 46.6 24.1 6.2 12.5 26.5

220.9 18.3 10.4 3.5 13.5 24.1 30.0 47.7 24.0 6.5 13.0 25.7

216.3 19.7 9.5 3.6 13.0 24.3 29.9 44.0 21.3 5.6 12.3 25.8

WORLD CORN (Sep/Aug)*** USA Argentina Brazil China South Africa Ukraine EU-28

989.7 361.1 23.5 75.0 215.5 11.5 27.5 73.1

989.6 351.3 26.0 80.0 218.5 15.0 30.0 64.3

868.0 273.2 27.0 81.5 205.6 12.4 18.6 58.0

178.2 33.6 3.0 15.0 37.0 3.1 4.6 9.5

180.6 35.4 3.4 15.8 36.3 3.1 4.8 9.7

177.6 35.4 4.0 15.8 35.0 3.2 4.4 9.9

WORLD BARLEY (Jul/Jun)*** USA Canada Australia Russia Ukraine EU-28 Argentina

140.7 3.8 7.1 8.0 20.0 9.3 60.1 3.0

145.5 4.7 10.2 9.7 15.3 7.3 59.7 4.8

129.8 4.8 8.0 7.5 14.0 6.9 55.2 5.0

49.8 1.0 2.1 3.8 9.0 3.0 12.5 0.9

50.7 1.2 2.7 3.9 8.7 3.2 12.4 1.3

50.2 1.3 2.8 3.6 8.8 3.3 12.5 1.5

WORLD RICE (Milled) (Jan/Dec)*** USA China India Indonesia

474.9 7.1 144.5 102.5 36.5

477.1 6.1 142.5 106.5 36.3

472.0 6.3 143.0 105.2 36.6

159.6 1.2 30.3 43.0 12.2

160.9 1.0 30.3 43.9 12.1

158.2 1.1 30.1 42.4 12.2

WORLD TOTAL GRAIN (incl. Rice)*** USA Canada Argentina Australia China India Russia Ukraine EU-28

WORLD TOTAL OILSEEDS***

532.2

504.3

475.8

233.2

229.4

226.8

WORLD SOYBEANS (Sep/Aug)*** USA Argentina Brazil China India

315.1 108.0 56.0 94.5 11.0 9.8

283.7 91.4 54.0 86.7 11.9 9.0

268.8 82.8 49.3 82.0 12.6 10.7

118.0 33.6 19.8 31.5 6.3 10.5

113.3 30.9 19.8 30.1 6.6 10.9

109.3 30.8 19.4 27.7 7.2 10.7

WORLD RAPESEED (Jul/Jun)*** Canada Australia China India EU-28 Ukraine

71.3 15.6 3.4 7.2 6.6 24.3 2.3

71.2 18.0 3.8 8.4 7.1 21.5 2.4

63.8 13.9 4.1 8.0 6.0 19.5 1.2

35.7 8.1 2.7 3.8 6.6 6.6 0.9

36.1 8.0 2.7 4.6 7.1 6.6 1.0

36.3 8.8 3.3 4.4 6.1 6.2 0.5

WORLD SUNSEED (Sep/Aug)*** Argentina Russia Ukraine EU-28

39.8 2.5 9.0 10.3 9.2

42.9 2.1 10.4 11.5 8.9

36.0 3.1 8.0 8.8 7.0

23.1 1.4 6.8 5.2 4.3

24.4 1.3 7.4 5.2 4.5

23.8 1.6 6.5 5.4 4.3

Sources: USDA, Stats. Canada, ABARE, own Estimates

* Estimate ** Forecast *** Sum as USDA

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ADM Germany GmbH, Market Review March 30, 2015

Table 2: WHEAT TRADE (mln t) WORLD EXPORTERS USA Canada Argentina Australia Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan EU-28 India IMPORTERS Brazil Mexico South Korea Japan Indonesia Iraq Egypt Morocco Algeria EU-28 China Source: USDA

Table 3: CORN TRADE (mln t)

2014/15

2013/14

160.6

165.8

24.5 23.0 6.5 17.0 20.0 11.0 6.0 31.5 3.5

32.0 23.2 2.2 18.6 18.5 9.8 8.1 31.9 6.1

6.7 4.6 3.8 5.9 7.7 3.0 10.5 3.4 7.1 5.5 1.5

7.1 4.6 4.3 6.1 7.4 3.2 10.2 3.9 7.5 4.0 6.8

2014/15

2013/14

116.8

130.4

EXPORTERS USA Argentina Brazil South Africa Ukraine India EU-28 Russia Paraguay

45.7 14.5 20.5 1.0 18.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.3

48.7 17.0 21.0 2.0 20.0 3.9 2.4 4.2 2.4

IMPORTERS Mexico Colombia Egypt Iran South Korea Japan Taiwan EU-28 China

10.9 4.2 7.5 5.5 9.6 15.4 4.2 8.0 2.5

11.0 4.3 8.5 5.5 10.4 15.1 4.4 15.9 3.3

WORLD

Source: USDA

Table 4: BARLEY TRADE (mln t) 2014/15

2013/14

25.9

22.9

EXPORTERS USA Canada Australia Russia Ukraine EU-28 Argentina Kazakhstan

0.3 1.3 5.0 4.4 4.2 8.0 1.6 0.5

0.3 1.6 6.2 2.7 2.5 5.7 2.9 0.5

IMPORTERS USA China Japan Jordan Saudi Arabia Iran Tunesia Jordan

0.5 6.0 1.3 0.7 7.5 1.7 0.3 0.65

0.4 4.9 1.3 1.0 9.0 0.9 0.6 1.009

WORLD

Source: USDA

Table 5: SOYBEAN TRADE (mln t) WORLD EXPORTERS USA Argentina Brazil Paraguay IMPORTERS Mexico China Japan South Korea Taiwan Thailand 11 Indonesia EU-28 Source: USDA

2014/15

2013/14

117.4

113.0

48.7 8.0 46.0 4.8

44.8 7.8 46.8 4.8

4.1 74.0 2.9 1.3 2.4 2.0 2.4 12.8

3.8 70.4 2.9 1.3 2.3 1.8 2.2 13.0

Table 6: RAPESEED TRADE (mln t) WORLD EXPORTERS Canada Australia EU-28 Ukraine USA IMPORTERS USA Mexico China Japan Pakistan UAE EU-28 Source: USDA

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2014/15

2013/14

13.9

15.1

8.6 2.4 0.5 1.9 0.1

9.2 2.9 0.3 2.2 0.2

0.8 1.5 3.9 2.5 0.9 0.8 2.9

0.9 1.5 5.0 2.4 0.6 0.7 3.5

ADM Germany GmbH, Market Review March 30, 2015

Table 7: EU-28 GRAIN PRODUCTION (in 1,000 t) WHEAT

EU-28 EU-15 Germany France Italy Netherlands Belgium/Lux. U.K. Ireland Denmark Greece Spain Portugal Austria Sweden Finland

DURUM

BARLEY

CORN

RYE

OATS

TRITICALE

OTHERS**

TOTAL GRAINS

2014*

2013

2013

2014*

2013

2013

2014*

2013

148,102 136,387

7,439

7,784 60,064 59,667 29,479 32,979 73,119 64,328

9,321 10,334

8,030

8,547 12,027 11,460

4,359

3,996 322,462 302,504

106,150 27,711 37,465 3,321 1,314 1,980 16,493 714 5,174 417 5,658 82 1,688 3,047 1,088

96,355 24,966 36,647 3,233 1,354 1,991 11,921 576 4,117 408 6,724 105 1,581 1,854 878

6,961 72 1,492 3,591 0 0 0 0 0 954 782 11 59 0 0

7,321 48,494 49,706 22,843 27,586 40,436 36,492 53 11,563 10,367 2,067 1,959 5,142 4,072 1,416 11,714 10,373 3,206 3,018 16,949 14,730 3,876 926 876 0 0 8,084 7,830 0 207 219 165 183 293 289 0 424 415 29 27 793 836 0 7,007 7,095 3,925 5,111 64 21 0 1,686 1,445 1,164 1,171 0 0 0 3,404 3,946 2,649 3,190 72 66 1,000 312 300 0 0 1,374 1,368 906 7,030 10,112 6,047 8,912 4,419 4,925 15 41 53 41 53 762 780 55 856 760 309 301 2,485 1,575 0 1,579 1,933 1,497 1,849 0 0 0 1,745 1,812 1,745 1,812 0 0

5,409 3,854 122 15 11 10 38 0 615 35 261 20 211 143 74

6,286 4,682 148 18 11 15 43 0 510 38 383 22 242 149 26

5,545 627 451 274 10 31 812 184 176 97 777 68 98 824 1,116

6,167 604 442 257 10 30 1,009 183 252 101 965 81 89 860 1,285

6,110 2,972 2,017 98 18 52 60 0 94 0 437 24 210 128 0

5,812 2,617 2,118 105 17 58 57 0 82 0 395 32 213 118 0

804 70 374 240 0 0 0 0 0 5 39 0 0 76 0

709 219,909 208,848 82 52,012 47,444 242 70,585 66,115 248 16,549 16,443 0 1,852 1,899 0 3,290 3,346 0 24,474 20,146 0 2,584 2,203 0 9,534 8,973 5 3,193 3,221 46 19,403 24,454 0 1,007 1,088 0 5,607 4,515 85 5,797 4,999 0 4,023 4,001

41,952 11,474 5,286 1,965 5,000 584 1,391 3,067 163 0 0 7,348 4,908 765

40,032 9,655 4,731 1,642 4,946 403 1,332 2,785 150 0 0 8,098 5,310 982

478 0 203 101 59 0 0 0 0 8 9 10 88 0

3,912 3,330 133 51 94 42 86 119 3 0 0 32 16 6

4,048 3,408 169 50 94 36 104 123 3 0 0 38 18 8

2,485 1,300 163 42 134 85 129 157 6 0 0 359 41 70

2,380 1,225 149 37 149 79 122 142 5 0 0 357 43 73

5,917 4,594 235 36 454 20 34 421 8 0 0 115 0 0

5,648 4,305 214 34 460 11 42 450 11 0 0 122 0 0

3,555 3,306 62 35 13 9 36 44 0 0 0 50 0 0

EU-13 Poland Czech Republic Slovakia Hungary Estonia Latvia Lithuania Slovenia Cyprus Malta Romania Bulgaria Croatia

(Total) 2014* 2013

spring Barley

(excl. Durum) 2014* 2013

464 11,570 0 3,256 192 1,966 92 661 56 1,318 0 450 0 285 0 884 0 92 10 55 9 3 10 1,599 95 817 0 185

9,960 2,889 1,625 448 1,145 380 225 654 85 53 3 1,537 718 199

2014*

6,636 2,346 1,379 520 346 450 285 870 13 0 0 363 64 0

2013

2014*

2013

5,393 32,684 27,836 2,040 3,864 3,843 1,094 1,032 693 372 1,650 1,197 262 9,348 6,659 380 0 0 225 0 0 631 160 109 10 342 234 0 0 0 0 0 0 317 11,000 10,404 62 2,807 2,688 0 2,480 2,010

Source: ADM Germany GmbH

2014*

2014*

2014*

3,288 102,552 3,038 31,124 57 9,080 34 4,541 14 16,419 11 1,190 38 1,961 43 4,852 0 614 0 64 0 12 54 20,513 0 8,678 0 3,505

2013

93,656 28,362 7,829 3,533 13,521 919 1,862 4,305 487 63 12 20,619 8,871 3,272

* Estimates ** Sorghum, Mixed Grains

13

ADM Germany GmbH, Market Review March 30, 2015

Table 8: EU-28 OILSEED PRODUCTION (in 1,000 t) RAPESEED

SUNSEED

SOYBEANS

TOTAL 3

2014*

2013

2014*

2013

2014*

2013

2014*

2013

24,295

21,490

9,202

8,876

1,807

1,294

35,304

31,659

15,719

13,941

2,978

3,078

1,279

912

19,976

17,932

Germany

6,264

5,767

48

46

0

0

6,311

5,813

France

5,516

4,378

1,567

1,581

225

110

7,308

6,068

55

56

233

224

915

718

1,203

999

EU-28 EU-15

Italy Netherlands

19

19

0

0

0

0

19

19

Belgium/Lux.

46

46

0

0

0

0

46

46

2,461

2,217

0

0

0

0

2,461

2,217

49

49

0

0

0

0

49

49

647

681

0

0

0

0

647

681

8

8

101

101

0

0

110

110

106

107

957

1,027

2

2

1,065

1,136

0

0

20

21

0

0

20

21

U.K. Ireland Denmark Greece Spain Portugal Austria

198

198

51

77

137

83

386

358

Sweden

305

335

0

0

0

0

305

335

Finland

46

81

0

0

0

0

46

81

EU-13

8,576

7,548

6,224

5,798

528

381

15,328

13,727

Poland

3,198

3,080

5

5

0

0

3,203

3,085

Czech Republic

1,533

1,446

45

46

15

14

1,592

1,506

Slovakia

422

343

205

218

77

39

704

600

Hungary

639

532

1,647

1,494

111

79

2,397

2,104

Estonia

166

157

0

0

0

0

166

157

Latvia

185

296

0

0

0

0

185

296

Lithuania

471

554

0

0

0

0

471

554

Slovenia

10

10

0

0

0

0

10

10

Romania

1,388

754

2,040

2,009

215

138

3,643

2,901

Bulgaria

515

329

2,190

1,936

0

0

2,705

2,264

Croatia

50

48

92

89

110

111

252

Source: ADM Germany GmbH

248 * Estimates

14

ADM Germany GmbH, Market Review March 30, 2015

Table 9: EU-27 EXPORT AND IMPORT COMMITMENTS (in 1,000 t) EU-28 01/07/2014 - 24/03/2015 Export Import (incl. Food Aid) Wheat Wheat flour * Durum wheat Semolina * Barley Malt * Corn Rye Rye flour * Oats Sorghum Others Total

24,423 797 821 0 6,681 0 2,300 175 0 157 0 0 35,354

2,198 22 2,127 0 59 0 6,902 0 0 0 98 0 11,406

Source: EU-Commission

EU-28 01/07/2013 - 25/03/2014 Export Import (incl. Food Aid) 22,683 795 702 0 5,070 0 2,259 153 0 209 0 0 31,871

1,291 24 1,318 0 23 0 10,112 0 0 0 160 0 12,928 * in grain equivalent

15