Market Indicators & Forecasts Plus: riding the next wave of consumption

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The Asia century? 550 million new consumers in China in the next fifteen years

Japan to have highest ratio of older people to workingage population

Fastest consumer class growth in Indian cities

Thai cities ageing the quickest

Indonesia’s capital Jakarta to have the largest market for young consumers

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1

Drivers of consumer spending: global overview

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Growing and shrinking Asian cities

3

Country – city comparisons

4

New consumer market frontiers

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1

Drivers of consumer spending: global overview

2

Growing and shrinking Asian cities

3

Country – city comparisons

4

New consumer market frontiers

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New workers, new growth possibilities Selection of countries with largest and smallest total labour force growth (population aged 15-64) in the next 15 years shown as % of 2030 Germany Russia

-14.6% -13.9%

Taiwan

-13.5%

Poland

-13.3%

Japan

-11.7%

Colombia

13.3%

Mexico

14.7%

Indonesia

14.9%

Peru

15.5%

India

15.6%

Malaysia

15.7%

Venezuela

17.2%

Ecuador

18.5%

Algeria

18.6%

Israel

19.7%

Egypt

21.3%

Philippines

22.6%

Pakistan

23.6%

Saudi Arabia

24.5%

Nigeria -20%

35.5% -10%

0%

10%

6

20%

30%

40%

Growth of the consumer class In the past 25 years, nearly 900 million households have joined the consumer class in 60 countries around the world. 85%

More than 650 million households are expected to do the same in the next 15 years.

1.9

1.3

1.0

1.9

79% 1.6

Consumer class: HHs earning > US$5,000 p.a. at constant prices (bn)

1.5

69% 1.1

52%

Total number of HHs (bn)

0.7 32% 0.3

1990

2.3

2000

2010

2020

7

2030

Capturing the consumer class Countries with largest absolute growth in the number of households earning disposable income > US$5,000 p.a. at constant prices by 2030 (millions of households)

220 196

35

China

India

Indonesia

29 Nigeria

20

17

15

14

10

10

United States of America

Vietnam

Brazil

Egypt

Pakistan

Philippines

8

Income and demographic sweet spot in Asia

By 2030, the largest consumer markets in Asia, containing young trend setters (15-35 year olds) with money to spend (combined disposable household income above US$5,000 p.a. at constant prices) will be located in: • China • India • Indonesia • Philippines • Japan

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Luxury goods markets in Asia Households in Asia by income band (millions) 1,400 >US$75,000 1,200

US$35,00074,999

1,000

800 US$15,00034,999 600

US$5,00014,999

400

200

US$5,000 p.a. at constant prices by 2030 (millions of households)

4.9 4.2

4.0

3.1 2.6

Indonesia: Jakarta

India: New Delhi

India: Mumbai

India: Bangalore

Thailand: Bangkok

2.5

2.3

China: Beijing India: Chennai

15

2.3

India: Hyderabad

2.2

2.1

India: Kolkata South Korea: Seoul

Income and demographic sweet spot in Asian cities

Tokyo New Delhi

Manila Ho Chi Minh City

Jakarta

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By 2030, the largest urban consumer markets in Asia (combined disposable household income above US$5,000 p.a. at constant prices) with a young demographic (aged 15-35) will be located in: • Jakarta • Manila • Tokyo • Ho Chi Minh City • New Delhi

1

Drivers of consumer spending: global overview

2

Growing and shrinking Asian cities

3

Country – city comparisons

4

New consumer market frontiers

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Major cities’ share of country population India

Indonesia 2030

2015

2030

2015

Delhi

Mumbai

Pune

Ahmadabad

Surat

Kolkata

Hyderabad

Chennai

Bangalore

Jakarta

Surabaya

Bandung

Other

Medan

Other

Philippines

Malaysia 2030

2015

Ipoh

Johor Bahru

Kuala Lumpur

Other

2030

2015

Manila

18

Cebu

Davao

Other

Major cities’ contribution to country income levels India

Indonesia 2030

2015

Delhi Ahmadabad Hyderabad Other

Mumbai Surat Chennai

Pune Kolkata Bangalore

Malaysia

Jakarta

Surabaya

Bandung

Other

Medan

Philippines 2030

2015

2030

2015

Ipoh

Johor Bahru

Kuala Lumpur

Other

2030

2015

Manila

19

Cebu

Davao

Other

1

Drivers of consumer spending: global overview

2

Growing and shrinking Asian cities

3

Country – city comparisons

4

New consumer market frontiers

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African cities’ growing labour force Cities with largest total labour force growth rate (population aged 15-64) by 2019 (%) Ghana: Kumasi

2.7

Kenya: Nairobi

3.0

Kenya: Mombasa

3.3

Nigeria: Ibadan

3.4

Cameroon: Douala

3.7

Senegal: Dakar

3.7

Uganda: Kampala

4.0

Zambia: Lusaka

4.0

Nigeria: Lagos

4.0

Egypt: Cairo

4.0

Angola: Luanda

4.1

DRC: Kinshasa

4.7

Nigeria: Port Harcourt

5.2

Tanzania: Dar es Salaam

5.3

Nigeria: Abuja

8.8 0

1

2

3

4

21

5

6

7

8

9

African cities and the consumer class Cities with largest absolute growth in the number of households earning disposable income > US$5,000 p.a. at constant prices (2014 – 2019) (shown in millions of households)

0.9

0.9

0.5 0.4

0.4 0.3

Egypt: Cairo DRC: Kinshasa Nigeria: Lagos South Africa: Johannesburg

0.3

Egypt: Kenya: Nairobi Tanzania: Dar Alexandria es Salaam

22

0.2

0.2

0.2

Angola: Luanda

Zimbabwe: Harare

Côte d'Ivoire: Abidjan

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