JUNE 29, 2015

RTS, MICEX, MSCI EM Indices

MSCI EM

RTS

MARKET COMMENT Russian Market



MICEX (RHS)

Russian equities logged marginal gains on Friday, capping a threeday decline. The best performers included Magnit and Uralkali, which surged by more than 4%.

26 JUN

21 JUN

6 JUN

11 JUN

16 JUN

1 680 1 670 1 660 1 650 1 640 1 630 1 620 1 610 1 JUN

1 010 1 000 990 980 970 960 950 940 930 920

RUSSIA EQUITY DAILY

Global Markets

1 500

Greek PM Alexei Tsipras broke off debt talks over the weekend and

1 000

called a nationwide referendum for July 5 on whether or not to accept the terms of the bailout. Yesterday, Greek authorities imposed capital controls, and all banks and the stock market are set to remain closed for a week.

500

MICEX VOL. ($ MLN)

26 JUN

21 JUN

16 JUN

11 JUN

6 JUN

1 JUN

0

LSE VOL. ($ MLN)

The PBoC over the weekend cut both the benchmark lending rate and the reserve requirement ratio for some banks in response to the recent brutal sell-off on the Chinese equity market.

Source: Bloomberg

RTS, MICEX, MSCI EM Indices Close

Day

943.0

0.18%

▲

19.3%

▲

1,644.5

0.76%

▲

17.7%

▲

17,946.7

0.31%

▲

0.7%

▲

2,101.5

-0.04%

▼

2.1%

▲

RTS M ICEX Dow Jones S&P 500

YtD

20,150.5

-2.68%

▼

15.5%

▲

Shanghai Comp.*

4,013.1

-4.29%

▼

24.1%

▲

FTSE

6,753.7

-0.80%

▼

2.9%

▲

Straits Times

3,272.6

-1.87%

▼

-2.8%

▼

DAX

NIKKEI*

11,492.4

0.17%

▲

17.2%

▲

M SCI EM

980.6

-0.76%

▼

2.5%

▲

Bovespa

54,017.0

1.58%

▲

8.0%

▲

* as at 9 a.m. (Moscow time) Source: Bloomberg

Commodities and currencies

Oil

is down over 1% this morning on the bank of the Greek crisis and a rising dollar, with Brent trading around $62.5/bbl. The ruble was steady ahead of the weekend, but looks set to fall today as the dollar is trading back above RUB 55.

Forecast for today



Commodity, FX Close

Day

WTI

59.6

0.13%

▲

11.9%

▲

Brent

62.4

-1.50%

▼

8.9%

▲

Gold

1,183.7

0.78%

▲

-0.2%

▼

Copper

5,755.0

-0.26%

▼

-8.7%

▼

Aluminium

1,704.0

-1.10%

▼

-8.0%

▼

12,450.0

-1.97%

▼

-17.8%

▼

USD/RUB

55.45

1.26%

▲

-5.0%

▼

EUR/USD

1.10

-1.77%

▼

-9.2%

▼

2.30

-9 bps

▼

13 bps

▲

Nickel

UST10

YtD

Global equity markets are down 1.5-2.0% across the board, while China is 3.2% in the red despite the measures taken by the country’s central bank. The local bourse will not avoid a pullback and we expect the Russian market to gap 1.5-2.0% lower at the opening. Economic data. Macro data will be on the back burner today, all the more since the only key data are due out of the Eurozone, including EU consumer confidence (12:00 Moscow time) and Germany’s CPI (15:00). Alexander Nazarov +7 (495) 980 43 81

Source: Bloomberg

Outperformers and underperformers Sistema, GDR Sistema Magnit Uralkali

Rostelecom, GDR

NEWS 

Inter RAO may sell assets in Armenia. Neutral

RTS O'KEY, GDR OGK-5 CTC Media M.Video Global Ports, GDR

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

Research Department

0%

5%

10%

15% 20% 25% Source: Bloomberg

1

Copyright © 2003-2015. Gazprombank (Joint Stock Company)

JUNE 29, 2015

RUSSIA EQUITY DAILY

UTILITIES Inter RAO may sell assets in Armenia. Neutral

INTER RAO Ticker

IRAO RX

Current Price

RUB 1.21

Target Price

RUB 1.50

Upside

24%

Rating

OVERWEIGHT

News: Inter RAO may be forced to sell its stake in the company Electric Networks of Armenia, according to today’s Kommersant. Effect on the company: In addition to Electric Networks of Armenia, the Armenia segment of Inter RAO’s consolidated financials includes OAO RazTES. Overall, this segment accounted for 2% of Inter RAO’s consolidated revenues and 1.7% of consolidated EBITDA in 2014. Effect on shares: The possible sale of the assets in Armenia should not have a significant impact on the company’s share price due to the low share of Armenian assets in the group’s consolidated financial results Matvey Tayts +7 (495) 980 43 89



Research Department

2

Copyright © 2003-2015. Gazprombank (Joint Stock Company)

RUSSIA EQUITY DAILY

JUNE 29, 2015

COVERAGE UNIVERSE Issuer Oil & Gas Gazprom NOVATEK Rosneft Lukoil Surgutneftegaz Surgutneftegaz prefs Gazprom Neft Tatneft (ADR) Tatneft pref Bashneft Bashneft pref Transneft pref C.A.T. oil Eurasia Drilling Co. IGSS Metals Norilsk Nickel Alrosa Rusal NLMK Evraz Severstal ММК Polyus Gold Polymetal Nordgold Raspadskaya TMK Utilities Inter RAO RusHydro OGK-2 E.ON Russia Enel Russia FGC ROSSETI ROSSETI pref MOESK MRSK Center MRSK Center and Volga MRSK Volga MRSK Urals MRSK North-West Lenenergo Lenenergo pref MRSK Siberia Kubanenergo MRSK South MRSK North Caucasus Telecommunications / Media Sistema Yandex MegaFon MTS VimpelCom Ltd Mail.ru Rostelecom Rostelecom pref QIWI Transport Aeroflot NCSP TransContainer Globaltrans FESCO Global Ports Fertilizers Uralkali PhosAgro Acron Consumer X5 Retail Group Magnit Dixy Group O'Key Financials Sberbank Sberbank pref VTB FC Otkritie Bank Bank St Petersburg Bank Vozrozhdenie Bank Vozrozhdenie pref Moscow Exchange

Ticker Currency

Price

TP Upside Rating

Mcap

1D

5D

1M

3M

1Y

MTD

YTD P/E 14 P/E 15

EV/EBITDA 14

EV/EBITDA 15

GAZP RX NVTK LI ROSN RX LKOD LI SNGS RX SNGSP RX SIBN RX ATAD LI TATNP RX BANE RX BANEP RX TRNFP RX O2C GR EDCL LI IGSS LI

RUB USD RUB USD RUB RUB RUB USD RUB RUB RUB RUB EUR USD USD

145,2 100,5 229,9 44 33,5 42,5 136,6 32,8 157,6 1890 1415 129600 10,1 17,0 9,5

201,2 161,0 311,7 54 31,8 28,3 201,2 32,1 216,9 2323 1861 76309 u/r u/r u/r

39% 60% 36% 25% -5% -33% 47% -2% 38% 23% 32% -41%

OW OW N N N N OW N OW N N UW u/r u/r u/r

62 031 30 515 43 976 37 042 21 601 5 911 11 689 11 921 420 5 043 761 3 637 542 2 497 99

1,0% 2,0% -3,6% -1,4% 0,2% 0,5% 0,8% 1,2% 0,2% 0,1% 3,1% 0,5% 1,0% 1,2% 0,0%

-1,3% 4,5% -0,5% -0,4% -8,0% -1,8% -5,1% -9,2% -1,1% 8,1% 1,0% 14,3% -0,8% -0,9% 3,0% -2,1% 2,3% 1,7% -1,9% -5,5% -2,1% -6,5% -0,8% 5,0% 1,0% -14,0% -5,0% -15,0% 0,0% -5,0%

7,6% 37,3% -3,1% -2,9% -4,6% 2,0% -12,3% 16,6% -1,7% 0,0% 7,5% 4,4% -4,5% -11,2% -5,0%

-2,8% 4,5% -20,2% -0,4% -7,9% -1,8% -27,2% -9,2% 25,9% 8,1% 50,5% 14,3% -7,6% -0,9% -16,3% -2,1% 20,3% 1,7% -21,4% -5,5% -14,3% -6,5% 75,1% 5,0% -45,5% -14,0% -46,0% -15,0% -64,8% -5,0%

11,4% 28,2% 17,4% 9,4% 42,4% 44,2% -4,5% 34,0% 17,5% 51,2% 53,5% 2,9% -31,5% -4,5% -28,0%

1,9 9,0 5,9 7,8 7,1

2,0 6,4 5,5 13,3 7,4

2,0 8,1 3,2 2,6 1,8

1,9 6,6 2,9 3,7 1,8

2,4 9,7

2,3 7,6

1,4 6,1

1,6 5,0

3,3

3,4

2,3

2,5

MNOD LI ALRS RX 486 HK NLMK LI EVR LN SVST LI MMK LI PGIL LN POLY LN NORD LI RASP RX TMKS LI

USD USD HKD USD GBp USD USD USD USD USD USD USD

17,5 1,1 3,9 13,6 127,7 10,7 3,5 2,8 8,4 3,2 0,7 4,4

26,2 1,5 4,7 20,5 120,0 13,5 4,7 3,2 9,31 u/r u/r u/r

50% 31% 20% 51% -6% 26% 36% 17% 10%

OW OW N OW N OW OW N N u/r u/r u/r

27 638 8 434 7 682 8 151 2 824 8 947 2 974 8 429 3 564 1 195 458 1 091

1,1% -2,4% -0,9% 1,0% 1,5% 0,3% 0,3% -9,9% -7,6% -0,4% 0,4% -3,6% -5,7% -13,0% -24,3% -0,4% -2,0% -11,6% 0,6% -0,3% -6,5% 0,1% 0,4% -4,1% 0,9% -3,3% -3,7% 0,2% 0,5% 4,8% 0,3% -1,6% -5,0% 2,8% 6,9% 5,4%

0,4% -9,7% -19,8% 7,9% -32,7% -4,7% 11,4% -6,0% -4,9% 20,2% -4,9% 45,7%

-12,3% -0,9% 51,1% 0,3% 10,1% -7,6% -2,5% -3,6% 37,6% -24,3% 42,1% -11,6% 32,5% -6,5% -0,1% -4,1% -3,6% -3,7% 76,9% 4,8% 83,3% -5,0% -54,4% 5,4%

22,8% 0,7% -24,9% 18,5% -17,4% 17,4% 44,2% -2,3% -6,9% 112,3% 57,0% 89,7%

8,8 7,2 26,2 12,9 neg. 11,8 neg. 17,9 12,6

6,9 6,2 4,4 10,4 neg. 9,3 neg. 12,8 9,2

6,1 5,5 5,5 6,2 5,0 5,8 4,9 9,4 6,9

5,0 4,8 4,3 5,6 4,3 5,1 4,3 8,2 6,7

IRAO RX HYDR RX OGKB RM EONR RM ENRU RX FEES RX RSTI RX RSTIP RX MSRS RX MRKC RX MRKP RX MRKV RX MRKU RX MRKZ RX LSNG RX LSNGP RX MRKS RX KUBE RX MRKY RM MRKK RX

RUB RUB RUB RUB RUB RUB RUB RUB RUB RUB RUB RUB RUB RUB RUB RUB RUB RUB RUB RUB

1,21 0,54 0,28 2,97 0,89 0,063 0,48 0,48 0,88 0,26 0,070 0,024 0,081 0,030 3,01 11,75 0,061 43,00 0,032 16,00

1,50 0,47 u/r u/r u/r u/r u/r u/r u/r u/r u/r u/r u/r u/r u/r u/r u/r u/r u/r u/r

24% -13%

OW N u/r u/r u/r u/r u/r u/r u/r u/r u/r u/r u/r u/r u/r u/r u/r u/r u/r u/r

2 280 3 768 558 3 380 568 1 450 1 395 18 769 197 142 78 127 51 90 20 105 220 29 45

2,4% 2,5% 1,9% -6,8% 2,3% -6,8% 1,4% 5,7% -8,2% -8,9% -2,0% -4,2% 0,0% -1,7% -0,2% -4,0% 0,6% -2,2% 0,0% -2,3% -1,4% -1,0% -1,6% -2,8% -4,7% -3,7% -1,0% -10,8% 0,5% -11,9% -2,9% -8,6% -0,7% -0,3% 1,2% 0,7% 1,3% 0,3% -1,8% -0,6%

-3,1% -8,0% 5,3% -1,3% -1,9% -3,2% -9,2% -6,4% -1,7% -3,2% -0,3% 0,2% 5,9% -1,3% 31,2% 20,5% -7,4% -2,3% -2,4% -6,4%

30,0% 7,0% 27,9% 2,4% 12,5% 3,3% -3,5% -5,7% -12,9% 11,9% -1,7% 5,2% 23,6% -0,7% 37,4% 17,5% -8,8% -5,3% 0,9% -3,3%

27,8% -20,5% 23,9% 4,2% -13,4% 6,8% -12,4% 6,7% -28,9% 15,9% -25,7% 30,3% 35,9% 6,5% 9,9% -21,7% -19,6% -36,8% -9,8% -7,4%

-3,1% -8,0% 5,3% -1,3% -1,9% -3,2% -9,2% -6,4% -1,7% -3,2% -0,3% 0,2% 5,9% -1,3% 31,2% 20,5% -7,4% -2,3% -2,4% -6,4%

69,9% -0,2% 74,1% 30,3% 20,4% 38,0% 15,6% -14,1% -30,0% 2,4% -27,7% -13,3% 31,7% 17,4% 72,0% 4,9% -32,1% 0,2% 4,9% 32,2%

12,9 8,7

5,2 5,4

2,8 5,0

2,8 4,4

SSA LI YNDX US MFON LI MBT US VIP US MAIL LI RTKM RX RTKMP RX QIWI US

USD USD USD USD USD USD RUB RUB USD

8,8 15,8 14,2 9,7 5,1 21,2 91,0 62,8 29,7

9,0 19,2 16,0 12,0 u/r 22,0 u/r u/r 32,5

2% 22% 13% 23%

OW N N N u/r UW u/r u/r OW

4 251 5 110 8 773 10 053 8 959 4 661 4 384 275 1 743

4,6% -0,6% -2,1% 2,1% -1,2% -1,5% 1,8% -0,5% 0,4%

9,0% 15,9% -5,7% -12,3% -3,7% -7,8% -3,6% -7,0% -5,5% -17,9% -0,6% -7,5% 0,0% 12,4% -0,5% 8,7% 2,5% -1,7%

19,1% 2,3% -11,0% -1,2% -2,1% 5,6% 15,9% 11,0% 27,0%

-71,8% 15,9% -55,0% -12,3% -55,5% -7,8% -50,7% -7,0% -40,1% -17,9% -40,6% -7,5% 7,5% 12,4% 3,5% 8,7% -25,5% -1,7%

69,1% -12,0% 2,7% 35,5% 22,2% 29,9% 4,6% 9,9% 47,2%

4,3 16,6 9,1 10,8

9,9 26,2 10,4 8,5

3,0 11,9 4,2 4,1

4,8 14,1 4,4 4,2

4,1

23,8

15,9

14,2

41,0

32,1

18,9

14,6

AFLT RX NCSP LI TRCN LI GLTR LI FESH RX GLPR LI

RUB USD USD USD RUB USD

39,2 2,4 4,5 4,5 3,2 4,7

43,0 u/r u/r 5,7 u/r u/r

10%

785 2,3% 616 0,0% 625 0,0% 805 -2,1% 168 -1,6% 888 -18,0%

3,3% -4,7% 0,8% -9,4% 0,0% 0,0% -8,1% -21,4% -3,4% 8,6% -4,7% -20,1%

19,8% 31,9% 28,6% -5,4% 6,4% 17,0%

-29,6% -4,7% -51,9% -9,4% -21,1% 0,0% -60,6% -21,4% -7,6% 8,6% -55,5% -20,1%

21,5% 20,6% 2,3% -10,8% 12,1% 89,4%

3,3

2,1

3,2

2,5

7,1

10,6

3,4

5,1

URKA LI PHOR LI AKRN RX

USD USD RUB

13,1 13,1 2270

18,6 14,6 1568

42% 11% -31%

9,0 6,4

8,1 8,5 5,5

5,8 6,4 5,0

6,1 6,1 4,4

FIVE LI MGNT LI DIXY RX OKEY LI

USD USD RUB USD

17,3 56,5 329,0 2,4

u/r u/r u/r u/r

SBER RX SBERP RX VTBR RX OFCB RX BSPB RX VZRZ RX VZRZP RX MOEX RX

RUB RUB RUB RUB RUB RUB RUB RUB

70,6 49,4 0,078 1100 39,1 463 220,0 69,6

82,1 50,5 0,024 u/r 31,8 228 91,0 99,6

P/E 14 P/E 15 5,4 8,5

P/BV 14 0,8

P/BV 15 0,7

4% 9%

27%

16% 2% -69% -19% -51% -59% 43%

UW u/r u/r N u/r u/r N OW N

7 716 5 090 1 661

3,8% 0,4% 0,4%

-6,1% 4,0% 2,3%

-3,6% -1,1% 2,4%

0,5% 13,9% 3,5%

-43,7% 6,1% 86,8%

-3,6% -1,1% 2,4%

11,5% 28,4% 26,2%

u/r u/r u/r u/r

4 698 26 714 741 640

2,7% 3,4% 0,0% -6,7%

-1,7% -11,1% 6,5% 8,3% -5,2% -12,5% 0,4% -29,5%

16,9% 13,0% -30,7% -37,7%

-19,7% -11,1% -4,9% 8,3% -19,7% -12,5% -73,4% -29,5%

41,8% 24,5% -8,5% -45,8%

15,74% -16,28% -3,95% 11,9% -29,7% 2,4% 31,09% 85,14% -2,80% 1,1% 22,2% 3,6% 22,96% 2,87% -1,88% 7,9% 14,9% 9,7% 144% 99% 21,9% 4,4% 5,2% -3,4%

28,60% 31,1% 16,42% -5,3% 59,92% 12,7% 212% 17,8%

OW OW UW u/r N UW N OW

27 507 -1,15% -1,34% -3,95% 892 -0,6% 0,6% 2,4% 18 246 0,00% -2,52% -2,80% 2 856 -1,1% -2,1% 3,6% 310 0,26% 1,56% -1,88% 198 -0,9% 9,5% 9,7% 5 -4,14% 3,77% 22% 2 861 2,0% -2,2% -3,4%

-

-

1,3

1,4

3,6 9,4

9,0 27,1

0,3 0,5

0,3 0,5

9,9

8,9

1,7

1,6

OW – OVERWEIGHT UW – UNDERWEIGHT N – NEUTRAL u/r – under review Source: company data, Gazprombank estimates, Bloomberg

Research Department

3

Copyright © 2003-2015. Gazprombank (Joint Stock Company)

JUNE 29, 2015

RUSSIA EQUITY DAILY

MACROECONOMIC CALENDAR DATE

EVENT

PERIOD

TIME

PREVIOUS

USA 29.06.2015

Pending Home Sales NSA YoY

May

17:00

-

29.06.2015

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity

June

17:30

-

EUROZONE 29.06.2015

Consumer Confidence

June F

12:00

-

30.06.2015

Unemployment Rate

May

12:00

-

30.06.2015

CPI estimate YoY

June

12:00

-

April

16:00

-

USA 30.06.2015

S&P/CaseShiller 20-City Index NSA CHINA

01.07.2015

Manufacturing PMI

June

04:00

50.2

01.07.2015

Non-manufacturing PMI

June

04:00

53.2

June F

11:00

-

June 26

14:00

-

June

15:15

201K

EUROZONE 01.07.2015

Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI USA

01.07.2015

MBA Mortgage Applications

01.07.2015

ADP Employment Change

01.07.2015

Markit US Manufacturing PMI

June F

16:45

-

01.07.2015

Construction Spending MoM

May

17:00

2.2%

01.07.2015

ISM Manufacturing

June

17:00

52.8

-

14:30

-

EUROZONE 02.07.2015

ECB account of the monetary policy meeting USA

02.07.2015

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

June

15:30

280K

02.07.2015

Unemployment Rate

June

15:30

5.5%

02.07.2015

Initial Jobless Claims

June 27

15:30

-

02.07.2015

ISM New York

June

16:45

54.0

02.07.2015

Factory Orders

May

17:00

-0.4%

June

04:45

53.5

June F

11:00

-

May

12:00

2.2%

June F

16:45

-

June

17:00

55.7

CHINA 03.07.2015

Markit China Services PMI EUROZONE

03.07.2015

Markit Eurozone Services PMI

03.07.2015

Retail Sales YoY USA

06.07.2015

Markit US Services PMI

06.07.2015

ISM Non-manufacturing Composite

07.07.2015

Trade Balance

08.07.2015

MBA Mortgage Applications

08.07.2015

US Fed Releases Minutes from June 16-17 FOMC Meeting

09.07.2015

Initial Jobless Claims

May

15:30

-$40.90B

July 3

14:00

-

-

21:00

-

July 4

15:30

-

CHINA 09.07.2015

CPI YoY

June

04:30

1.2%

13.07.2015

Trade Balance

June

-

$59.49B

13.07.2015

Exports YoY

June

-

-2.5%

13.07.2015

Imports YoY

June

-

-17.6%

EUROZONE 14.07.2015

Industrial Production WDA YoY

May

12:00

0.8%

14.07.2015

ZEW Survey Expectations

July

12:00

53.7

10.1%

CHINA 15.07.2015

Retail Sales YoY

June

05:00

15.07.2015

Industrial Production YTD YoY

June

05:00

-

15.07.2015

GDP YoY

2Q15

05:00

7.0% Source: Bloomberg

Research Department

4

Copyright © 2003-2015. Gazprombank (Joint Stock Company)

JUNE 29, 2015

RUSSIA EQUITY DAILY

CORPORATE CALENDAR DATE

EVENT

PERIOD

30.06.2015

MegaFon: AGM

30.06.2015

RusHydro: IFRS results

June 2015

Enel Russia: AGM

June 2015

RusHydro: AGM

03.07.2015

Rostelecom: Dividend record date

07.07.2015

MTS: Dividend record date

13.07.2015

MegaFon: Dividend record date

15.07.2015

NLMK: operating results

2Q15

17.07.2015

Evraz: operating results

2Q15

21.07.2015

Alrosa: operating results

2Q15

23.07.2015

Severstal: IFRS results

2Q15

23.07.2015

RusHydro: operating results

2Q15

28.07.2015

E.ON Russia: RAS results

1H15

29.07.2015

Polymetal: operating results

2Q15

29.07.2015

Enel Russia: IFRS results

1H15

30.07.2015

RusHydro: RAS results

1H15

July 2015

1Q15

RusHydro: Dividend record date

04.08.2015

Enel Russia: RAS results

1H15

06.08.2015

VimpelCom: IFRS results

2Q15

13.08.2015

E.ON Russia: operating results, IFRS results

1H15

17.08.2015

MTS: IFRS results

2Q15

19.08.2015

Rostelecom: IFRS results

2Q15

21.08.2015

Raspadskaya: IFRS results

1H15

27.08.2015

Evraz: IFRS results

1H15

28.08.2015

Alrosa: IFRS results

2Q15

28.08.2015

RusHydro: IFRS results

1H15

06.10.2015

Evraz: operating results

3Q15

10.10.2015

VimpelCom: Investor Day

15.10.2015

Raspadskaya: operating results

3Q15

21.10.2015

Alrosa: operating results

3Q15

22.10.2015

RusHydro: operating results

9M15

28.10.2015

E.ON Russia: RAS results

9M15

29.10.2015

Enel Russia: IFRS results

9M15

29.10.2015

RusHydro: RAS results

9M15

05.11.2015

Enel Russia: RAS results

9M15

06.11.2015

VimpelCom: IFRS results

3Q15

12.11.2015

E.ON Russia: IFRS results

9M15

25.11.2015

Alrosa: IFRS results

3Q15

15.12.2015

RusHydro: IFRS results

9M15 Source: Bloomberg

Research Department

5

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