March 2016 Greater Toronto Area (GTA) refers to the City of Toronto plus the surrounding regions of Durham, York, Peel and Halton which include 24 municipalities: Ajax, Aurora, Brampton, Brock, Burlington, Caledon, Clarington, East Gwillimbury, Georgina, Halton Hills, King Township, Markham, Milton, Mississauga, Newmarket, Oakville, Oshawa, Pickering, Richmond Hill, Scugog, Uxbridge, Whitby, WhitchurchStouffville and Vaughan. Toronto Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) refers to the municipalities considered by Statistics Canada “to have a high degree of integration with the City of Toronto, as measured by commuting flows derived from census place of work data.” The Toronto CMA is slightly smaller than the GTA and is comprised of the City of Toronto plus 23 other municipalities: Ajax, Aurora, Bradford West Gwillimbury, Brampton, Caledon, East Gwillimbury, Georgina,Georgina Island, Halton Hills, King Township, Markham, Milton, Mississauga, Mono Township, Newmarket, Tecumseth, Oakville, Orangeville, Pickering, Richmond Hill, Uxbridge, Whitchurch-Stouffville and Vaughan. City of Toronto refers to the former Regional Municipality of Metropolitan Toronto which consisted of the former Cities of Toronto, Etobicoke, North York, Scarborough, York and the Borough of East York. On January 1, 1998, these six municipal jurisdictions were amalgamated to create the new City of Toronto.
Toronto at a Glance 2015 City of Toronto
Population (July 2015) Land Area km2 Labour Force Unemployment Rate Office Space Ft2 Industrial Space Ft2 Retail Space Ft2 Number of Businesses Gross Domestic Product (in 2007 $bil.) Retail Sales ($bil.) Average Income Pop'n 15+ Average Household Income Total Annual Building Permits - (ths. $) Residential (ths. $) Commercial (ths. $) Industrial (ths. $) Institutional (ths. $) Average Price all Home Types Housing Starts
2,826,498 630 1,550,701 7.7% 120,668,731 252,906,910 78,772,849 99,059 $160.0 N/A $47,617 $98,174 7,808,400 4,047,676 2,237,447 251,778 1,271,499 $659,270 18,913
Toronto Region
Defined As
6,129,934 (CMA) 5,903 (CMA) 3,417,400 (CMA) 7.0% (CMA) 174,516,951 (GTA) 777,504,033 (GTA) 176,674,000 (CMA) 216,820 (CMA) $304.3 (CMA) $77.0 (CMA) $46,082 (CMA) $104,378 (CMA) 18,204,578 (CMA) 11,647,187 (CMA) 3,631,337 (CMA) 1,108,874 (CMA) 1,817,180 (CMA) $622,217 (Toronto Area) 42,287 (CMA)
Statistics Canada substantially changed the methodology used to produce LFS population estimates for the city of Toronto at the beginning of 2015. These changes have resulted in large and inexplicable swings in population and related counts, which are not real. The chart below illustrates the magnitude of this problem. City of Toronto Population Age 15+ (thousands) 2,700
2,600
2,500
2,400
2,300
2,200
2,100
2,000
1,900
1,800 1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
Demographics Estimates
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016
Labour Force Survey
The red dots in chart represent Statistics Canada's Annual Demographics estimates for the population of the city of Toronto, age 15 and over. (Statistics Canada, Cansim tables 51-0036 and 51-0062)
The most recent Statistics Canada population estimate is for July 1, 2015; therefore, we have to use projections for 2016 and beyond. There are several population projections for the city. The projection that EDC staff has chosen to use for rebasing LFS data were produced by the Ontario Ministry of Finance in late 2014, based on Statistics Canada's 2013 demographics estimates. http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/economy/demographics/projections/ To handle the transition from the Statistics Canada data ending in 2015, to the Ministry of Finance's projections (2016 onwards), staff have used the annual change in the Finance projections to add to the demographics estimates for 2015. The Labour Force Survey sampling frame does not include military personnel and institutional inmates. The difference is approximately 1% at the Toronto CMA level; therefore, staff have reduced the city of Toronto population estimates by one percent to account for the non-civilian and institutional population. Monthly population estimates were developed by interpolating the July 1st estimates. All of the LFS counts for city of Toronto residents have been adjusted to make the population estimates embedded in the LFS data conform to the benchmark population totals. This does not affect rates (including, for example, the unemployment rate, wage rates and the percentage of workers that are self-employed). It also does not affect other levels of geography, except the "905", which is calculated as a residual (Toronto CMA minus city of Toronto).
Unadjusted Data
Seasonally Adjusted Data
3 Month Ave ra ge Ma r- 16
Fe b- 16
Ma r- 15
Cha nge M- M
('0 0 0 )
Y- Y
3 Month Ave ra ge Ma r- 16
%
Fe b- 16
Ma r- 15
Cha nge M- M
('0 0 0 )
Y- Y %
City of Toronto Population 15+ Labour Force Employment Unemployment Not in labour force Unemployment rate % Participation rate % Employment rate %
2,415.2 1,523.9 1,398.8 125.1 891.3 8.2 63.1 57.9
2,412.9 1,538.2 1,410.5 127.7 874.7 8.3 63.8 58.5
2,390.3 1,507.5 1,395.3 112.2 882.8 7.4 63.1 58.4
0.1 1.0 -0.9 1.1 -0.8 0.2 -2.0 11.5 1.9 1.0
2,415.2 1,550.5 1,419.6 130.9 864.6 8.4 64.2 58.8
2,412.9 1,557.6 1,424.7 132.8 855.3 8.5 64.6 59.0
2,390.3 1,533.3 1,415.3 118.0 857.1 7.7 64.1 59.2
0.1 1.0 -0.5 1.1 -0.4 0.3 -1.4 10.9 1.1 0.9
Toronto CMA Population 15+ Labour Force Employment Unemployment Not in labour force Unemployment rate % Participation rate % Employment rate %
5,160.4 3,408.1 3,165.9 242.2 1,752.4 7.1 66.0 61.4
5,153.1 3,427.1 3,193.2 233.9 1,726.1 6.8 66.5 62.0
5,073.4 3,291.9 3,060.7 231.2 1,781.4 7.0 64.9 60.3
0.1 -0.6 -0.9 3.5 1.5
1.7 3.5 3.4 4.7 -1.6
5,160.4 3,465.3 3,212.0 253.3 1,695.1 7.3 67.2 62.2
5,153.1 3,472.5 3,222.7 249.8 1,680.6 7.2 67.4 62.5
5,073.4 3,347.1 3,104.6 242.5 1,726.2 7.2 66.0 61.2
0.1 -0.2 -0.3 1.4 0.9
1.7 3.5 3.5 4.4 -1.8
Ontario Population 15+ Labour Force Employment Unemployment Not in labour force Unemployment rate % Participation rate % Employment rate %
11,466.1 7,384.5 6,872.4 512.1 4,081.6 6.9 64.4 59.9
11,455.0 7,384.4 6,896.8 487.6 4,070.6 6.6 64.5 60.2
11,338.2 7,298.7 6,783.7 515.1 4,039.5 7.1 64.4 59.8
0.1 0.0 -0.4 5.0 0.3
1.1 1.2 1.3 -0.6 1.0
11,466.1 7,489.7 6,983.1 506.6 3,976.4 6.8 65.3 60.9
11,455.0 7,479.5 6,975.6 503.9 3,975.5 6.7 65.3 60.9
11,338.2 7,405.3 6,896.4 508.8 3,933.0 6.9 65.3 60.8
0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.0
1.1 1.1 1.3 -0.4 1.1
Canada Population 15+ Labour Force Employment Unemployment Not in labour force Unemployment rate % Participation rate % Employment rate %
29,465.9 19,159.7 17,695.2 1,464.5 10,306.2 7.6 65.0 60.1
29,441.4 19,162.1 17,758.0 1,404.1 10,279.3 7.3 65.1 60.3
29,161.1 18,926.3 17,565.3 1,361.0 10,234.8 7.2 64.9 60.2
0.1 0.0 -0.4 4.3 0.3
1.0 1.2 0.7 7.6 0.7
29,465.9 19,412.4 18,017.2 1,395.2 10,053.5 7.2 65.9 61.1
29,441.4 19,402.0 18,006.3 1,395.7 10,039.4 7.2 65.9 61.2
29,161.1 19,192.2 17,892.9 1,299.4 9,968.8 6.8 65.8 61.4
0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1
1.0 1.1 0.7 7.4 0.8
Source: Labour Force Survey by Place of Residence, Statistics Canada Note: City of Toronto Seasonal Adjustments by Economic Development & Culture, Research
Unadjusted Data 3 Month Ave ra ge Ma r- 16
Fe b- 16
Cha nge
Ma r- 15
M- M
Y- Y
%
City of Toronto Mean Hourly Wage Median Hourly Wage
$26.92 $22.83
$26.63 $22.50
$25.26 $20.61
1.1 1.5
6.6 10.8
Total Employed ('000) * Males * Females * Female Percentage %
1,398.8 717.0 681.7 48.7
1,410.5 717.0 693.5 49.2
1,395.3 735.3 660.0 47.3
-0.8 0.0 -1.7
0.2 -2.5 3.3
Full Time Employment ('000) * Part Time Employment ('000) * Part Time Percentage %
1,143.7 255.0 18.2
1,161.3 249.1 17.7
1,132.9 262.4 18.8
-1.5 2.4
1.0 -2.8
242.8 17.4
250.1 17.7
227.0 16.3
-2.9
6.9
$26.98 $23.21
$26.80 $23.05
$25.66 $21.63
0.7 0.7
5.2 7.3
Total Employed ('000) Males Females Female Percentage %
3,165.9 1,658.0 1,508.0 47.6
3,193.2 1,668.9 1,524.3 47.7
3,060.7 1,606.4 1,454.3 47.5
-0.9 -0.7 -1.1
3.4 3.2 3.7
Full Time Employment ('000) Part Time Employment ('000) Part Time Percentage %
2,609.3 556.6 21.3
2,635.6 557.6 21.2
2,497.0 563.7 22.6
-1.0 -0.2
4.5 -1.2
Self-employed Self-employed Percentage %
568.3 17.9
575.7 18.0
520.1 17.0
-1.3
9.3
Self-employed * Self-employed Percentage % Toronto CMA Mean Hourly Wage Median Hourly Wage
Source: Labour Force Survey by Place of Residence, Statistics Canada
* Rebased Numbers
Cha nge
Building Permits
Fe b- 16
Ja n- 16
City of Toronto Residential Commercial Industrial Institutional Total
$100,626 $181,856 $121,458 $12,636 $416,576
$260,656 $113,731 $11,717 $28,042 $414,146
Toronto CMA Residential Commercial Industrial Institutional Total
$489,695 $336,428 $140,896 $75,302 $1,042,321
$634,714 $235,693 $76,253 $49,173 $995,833
Fe b- 15
M- M
$96,809 $120,678 $77,657 $4,740 $299,884
-61.4 59.9 936.6 -54.9 0.6
$360,617 $225,723 $95,522 $18,015 $699,877
-22.8 42.7 84.8 53.1 4.7
Y- Y %
('0 0 0 )
('0 0 0 )
3.9 50.7 56.4 166.6 38.9 %
35.8 49.0 47.5 318.0 48.9
Source: Statistics Canada Building Permit Survey Special Tabulation ('0 0 0 )
Engineering (Toronto Region)
%
$79,912
$9,355
-93.3
Fe b- 16
Ja n- 16
Fe b- 15
M- M
951 40 911 2,169
489 98 391 806
1,186 55 1,131 1,102
94.5 -59.2 133.0 169.1
-19.8 -27.3 -19.5 96.8
4,476 2,809 62.8 $719,843
3,757 1,699 45.2 $636,728
4,211 2,370 56.3 $630,858
19.1 65.3
6.3 18.5
13.1
14.1
3,629 1,780 1,849 3,402
1,614 974 640 1,843
2,999 1,460 1,539 1,657
124.8 82.8 188.9 84.6
21.0 21.9 20.1 105.3
11,275 7,621 67.6 $685,278
8,957 4,672 52.2 $631,092
10,503 6,338 60.3 $596,163
25.9 63.1
7.4 20.2
8.6
14.9
$5,332
-43.0
Source: Construction Starts, Canadata CMD Group Cha nge
Real Estate - Residential City of Toronto New Home Sales Low Rise High Rise Housing Starts New Listings Total Sales Sales/Listings Ratio % Average House Price Toronto Region New Home Sales Low Rise High Rise Housing Starts New Listings Total Sales Sales/Listings Ratio % Average House Price Source: BILD, CMHC, TREB
Y- Y %
%
Office Space Gross Rental Rates (PSF) Central Area Suburbs GTA Net Rental Rates Central Area Suburbs GTA Taxes and Operating Costs Central Area Suburbs GTA Absorption (sq ft) Central Area Suburbs GTA Vacancy Rate Central Area Suburbs GTA
Industrial Space Vacancy Rate City of Toronto GTA Average Sale Price (PSF) City of Toronto GTA Absorption (sq ft) City of Toronto GTA Source: Cushman & Wakefield
4 th Q ua rte r 2 0 15
3 rd Q ua rte r 2 0 15
2 nd Q ua rte r 2 0 15
1st Q ua rte r 2 0 15
4 th Q ua rte r 2 0 14
$45.71 $29.88 $37.92
$45.89 $29.89 $38.01
$45.43 $29.76 $37.72
$45.43 $29.76 $37.78
$45.15 $29.48 $37.50
$22.69 $14.89 $18.84
$22.90 $14.86 $18.94
$22.45 $14.78 $18.66
$22.46 $14.66 $18.62
$22.54 $14.62 $18.65
$23.02 $14.99 $19.08
$22.99 $15.02 $19.08
$22.98 $14.98 $19.06
$22.97 $15.10 $19.15
$22.61 $14.86 $18.85
114,849 251,396 366,245
790,752 413,532 1,204,284
274,752 229,931 504,683
-100,807 -54,165 -154,972
608,990 114,726 723,716
4.9% 10.4% 7.6%
4.8% 10.6% 7.7%
5.2% 10.9% 8.0%
5.1% 10.4% 7.7%
5.0% 10.4% 7.6%
4 th Q ua rte r 2 0 15
3 rd Q ua rte r 2 0 15
2 nd Q ua rte r 2 0 15
1st Q ua rte r 2 0 15
4 th Q ua rte r 2 0 14
2.9% 4.0%
2.9% 4.1%
3.1% 4.3%
4.2% 5.0%
4.4% 5.4%
$90.69 $107.71
$83.53 $90.97
$82.54 $86.12
$98.44 $95.82
$96.20 $95.69
-483,113 741,094
633,096 3,699,218
1,080,371 3,641,384
-325,550 1,051,181
-59,602 1,018,121
Retail Sales - Toronto CMA Seasonally Adjusted Data ($ 000's) Cha n ge
Total Retail Seasonally Adjusted
Ja n- 16
De c - 15
Ja n - 15
M- M
Y- Y
6,607,282
6,452,846
6,109,553
2.4
8.1
Unadjusted Data ($ 000's) Cha n ge Ja n- 16
De c - 15
Ja n - 15
M- M
NAICS
Y- Y %
5,693,127
7,582,344
5,329,941
-24.9
6.8
Motor vehicle and parts dealers Automobile dealers
1,251,147 1,211,765
1,393,594 1,345,495
1,060,400 1,024,071
-10.2 -9.9
18.0 18.3
44111
New car dealers
1,103,582
1,232,017
941,215
-10.4
17.3
44112
Used car dealers
108,182
113,478
82,856
-4.7
30.6
8,145
5,913
8,150 5.2
Total Retail 441 4411
4412
Other motor vehicle dealers
31,238
42,186
28,179
Furniture and home furnishings stores
213,511
303,990
202,888
-29.8
4421
Furniture stores
150,634
192,132
137,682
-21.6
9.4
4422
Home furnishings stores
62,878
111,859
65,206
-43.8
-3.6
218,363 305,522
458,380 357,466
246,604 273,625
-52.4 -14.5
-11.5 11.7
1,357,219
1,613,700
1,339,554
-15.9
1.3
Grocery stores 1,077,727 Supermarkets and other grocery (except convenience) stores 1,017,996
1,107,199 1,040,080
1,077,722 1,019,517
-2.7 -2.1 -11.0
0.0 -0.1 2.6
4413 442
443 444
Automotive parts, accessories and tire stores
Electronics and appliance stores Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers Food and beverage stores
445 4451 44511
Convenience stores
59,731
67,118
58,206
4452
Specialty food stores
76,120
128,566
64,453
-40.8
18.1
4453
Beer, wine and liquor stores
203,373
377,935
197,379
-46.2
3.0
446
Health and personal care stores
482,221
558,519
469,470
-13.7
2.7
447
Gasoline stations
541,774
576,091
492,417
-6.0
10.0
448 4481
Clothing and clothing accessories stores Clothing stores
419,257 323,893
890,848 671,248
386,603 304,688
-52.9 -51.7
8.4 6.3
4482 4483 451 452 4521 4529 453
Shoe stores Jewellery, luggage and leather goods stores Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores General merchandise stores Department stores Other general merchandise stores Miscellaneous store retailers
56,418 38,946 137,840 638,617 x x 127,655
96,695 122,905 256,625 991,395 x x 181,736
46,656 35,259 127,083 611,755 x x 119,540
-41.7 -68.3 -46.3 -35.6
20.9 10.5 8.5 4.4
-29.8
6.8
44512
Source: Retail Trade Survey, Statistics Canada, NAICS Note: X = confidential
Cha nge
Financial Activity Consumer Price Index - Toronto CMA (2002 = 100)
Fe b- 16
Ja n- 16
Fe b- 15
M- M
Y- Y
129.4
129.0
127.2
0.3
1.7
2.70
2.70
2.85
0.0
-5.3
0.725
0.703
0.800
3.2
-9.4
12,535
12,822
15,234
-2.2
-17.7
Source: Statistics Canada
Prime Rate % Source: The Bank of Canada
Exchange Rate (Cdn $ in US $) Source: The Bank of Canada
Toronto Stock Exchange 300 Composite Index Source: Yahoo Finance
Cha nge
Transportation Activity TTC Ridership Moving Annual Total (Millions) Average Weekday Ridership ('000)
Pearson International Airport Total Passengers ('000)
Fe b- 16
Ja n- 16
Fe b- 15
M- M
534.7 1,674.9
536.0 1,694.6
534.8 1,739.3
-0.2 -1.2
Ja n- 16
De c - 15
Ja n- 15
3,220.7
3,314.7
3,086.3
Ja n- 16
De c - 15
Ja n- 15
M- M
24,980 59,080
20,250 46,920
26,100 62,010
23.4 25.9
Y- Y
%
0.0 -3.7
Cha nge M- M Y- Y %
-2.8
4.4
Source: Greater Toronto Airports Authority Cha nge
Social Conditions Employment Insurance - Total Persons City of Toronto GTA Source: Statistics Canada
Y- Y
%
-4.3 -4.7
Consumer Price Index: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is an indicator of the changes in consumer prices experienced by the target population. The CPI measures price change by comparing, through time, the cost of a fixed basket of commodities. This basket is based on the expenditures of the target population in a certain reference period, currently 2002. Since the basket contains commodities of unchanging or equivalent quantity and quality, the index reflects only pure price movements. Gross Domestic Product: GDP is the total value of all goods and services produced in a region/country, regardless of who owns the productive assets. Housing Starts: Housing starts refer to units where construction has advanced to a stage where full footings are in place. In the case of multiple unit structures, this definition of a start applies to the entire structure. Labour Force: Civilian non-institutional population 15 years of age and over who, during the survey reference week, were employed or unemployed. Labour force includes full-time students if they are employed or looking for work. Retail Sales: A monthly survey that collects data on retail sales and the number of retail locations by geographical region from a sample of retailers. It excludes vending machine operators and direct sellers. Seasonal Adjustment: Eliminates the effect of annual repetitive changes caused by regular annual events such as seasons and holidays. Unemployed: Unemployed persons are those who, during reference week, were available for work and were either on temporary layoff, had looked for work in the past four weeks or had a job to start within the next four weeks. Unemployment Rate: (Number of unemployed persons / Labour Force) x 100 Not in Labour Force: Persons not in the labour force are those who, during the reference week, did not offer or supply labour services under the conditions existing in their labour markets, that is, they were neither employed nor unemployed. Participation Rate: Total labour force expressed as a percentage of the population aged 15 years and over. The participation rate for a particular group (for example, women aged 25 years and over) is the labour force in that group expressed as a percentage of the population of that group. Employment Rate: Number of employed persons expressed as a percentage of the population 15 years of age and over. The employment rate for a particular group (age, sex, marital status, province, etc.) is the number employed in that group expressed as a percentage of the population of that group. Employment: Employed persons are those who, during the reference week did any work for pay or profit, (includes self employed persons) or had a job and were absent from work. Wages: Information is collected on the usual wages or salary of employees at their main job. Respondents are asked to report their wage/salary before taxes and other deductions, and include tips, commissions and bonuses. ( Data are collected for employees only) Type of Work: Full-time or part-time work schedule. Full-time employment consists of persons who usually work 30 hours or more per week at their main or only job. Part-time employment consists of persons who usually work less than 30 hours per week at their main or only job. New Jobs Advertised: New jobs advertised are the number of unduplicated jobs posted online during the month across 79 job-posting websites. Any jobs that were originally posted prior to the month selected will not be shown. Raw data are collected by Wanted Analytics, a Canadian-based firm that provides information and analysis on hiring demand. Vacancy Rate (Industrial and Commercial space): Vacant space divided by inventory. Absorption: Absorption is the net change in occupied space over a given time period. Positive absorption reflects an increase in occupied space, while negative absorption reflects a decrease. Gross Rent: The net rent plus applicable real estate taxes and operating costs. Net Rent: The quoted rental rate, excluding real estate taxes and building operating costs, which may be subject to negotiation. Residential: Includes all buildings intended for private occupancy whether on a permanent basis or not. Dwellings are divided into the following types: single-family, mobile, cottage, semi-detached, row house and apartment building. Industrial: Includes all buildings used for manufacturing and processing; transportation, communication and other utilities, and agriculture, forestry and mining. Commercial: Includes all buildings used to house activities related to the tertiary sector, such as stores, warehouses, garages, office buildings, theatres, hotels, funeral parlours, beauty salons. Institutional and Government: Includes expenditures made by the community, public and government for buildings and structures like schools, universities, hospitals, clinics, churches, homes for the aged. Engineering: Includes; bridges, marine, sewers / water mains Sewage/water treatment plants, roads, electric transmission lines, electric power plants, dams, railroads, telecommunications, oil and gas pipelines, oil refineries, gas plants, tunnels/subways, miscellaneous engineering.