Labour Market Information Survey in Croatia. Manual on Forecasting and Assessment of Qualification Demands

Manual on Labour Market Information

Manual on enterprise-based surveys of short and medium term qualification demands in the labour market

Local Partnership for Employment Croatia European Union – CARDS 2002

Labour Market Information Survey in Croatia. Manual on Forecasting and Assessment of Qualification Demands

CONTENTS

1.

BACKGROUND....................................................................................................2

2.

INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................3

Sources of information................................................................................................................................................ 3 Approach ..................................................................................................................................................................... 4

3.

LABOUR MARKET INFORMATION SURVEYS ..................................................5

Introduction................................................................................................................................................................. 5 The preparation phase................................................................................................................................................ 5 Permanent sample of enterprises ....................................................................................................................5 First step: identification of enterprises ...........................................................................................................5 Second step: submission of questionnaires .....................................................................................................6 Third step: selection of enterprises for the permanent sample .....................................................................7 Registration of data and information ..............................................................................................................8 Implementation and collection of data ...................................................................................................................... 9 First step: development of final version of questionnaire ..............................................................................9 Second step: planning of the visits to enterprises ..........................................................................................9 Third step: scheduling and preparing the individual visits .........................................................................10 Reporting ................................................................................................................................................................... 10 First step: calculation of the total number of enterprises ............................................................................11 Second step: sample of enterprises ................................................................................................................11 Third step: expectations regarding employment by economic sector ..........................................................11 Fourth step: current and expected number of employees ............................................................................12 Fifth step: expectations regarding employment by occupation....................................................................13 Sixth step, indication of qualification requirements by occupation.............................................................14 Seventh step: expected employment situation and proposals for initiatives ..............................................15 Stakeholder involvement .......................................................................................................................................... 16 First step: identification of stakeholders.......................................................................................................17 Second step: selection of stakeholders ...........................................................................................................17 Third step: method of approach .....................................................................................................................18 Fourth step: development of a questionnaire for stakeholders....................................................................18 Qualification analysis................................................................................................................................................ 18 Introduction.....................................................................................................................................................18 Planning the qualification analysis ...............................................................................................................19

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Labour Market Information Survey in Croatia. Manual on Forecasting and Assessment of Qualification Demands

1. Background The Labour Market Survey is an integrated issue of the project “Local partnership for employment” which take place in 4 Counties: Sisak-Moslavina, Vukovar-Srijem, Zadar and SibenikKnin.

The specific objective of this Labour Market Survey is to improve the statistical and analytical capacity of the VET schools and other training providers and Employment Service (ES) within labour market monitoring and analysis of regional economic trends in order to strengthen the retraining capacity of the VET schools and other training providers through improved training design and delivery. Task Groups of 10-12 representatives of VET schools and training providers and the ES in each of the project Counties will be trained in how to prepare and conduct quantitative and qualitative labour market surveys. In order to facilitate the finding of a common ground 4 County surveys will be conducted in a close cooperation between local VET schools and Employment Offices. The labour market surveys will have two main objectives. Firstly, to identify education and training needs in order to develop relevant and required training and education programmes. Secondly, to strengthen the knowledge and skills regarding labour market analysis survey methods at local level, both at the involved VET schools and training providers and ES offices. Conducting the survey makes it is clear to all, that the employment service and the vocational education and training system needs to work closely with the employers to obtain qualitative information on the skills needs. Positive results will be gained within labour market analysis at Employment Service and VET school and other training providers level. The participating schools and ES will show a willingness to try out new approaches and to take the new challenges “on board”. The survey results and the manual on how to do labour market assessment will be disseminated to all training provider and ES offices and other stakeholders in each County on regional information meetings in spring 2005. Croatia, February 2005

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Labour Market Information Survey in Croatia. Manual on Forecasting and Assessment of Qualification Demands

2. Introduction This manual for a regionally based short-term labour market forecasting model describes a methodology for a systematic surveillance of the demand for skills and qualifications on a regional labour market. The model is based on the experience of the Danish Labour Market monitoring and forecasting system. The objective is first of all to provide the users with a short description on how to establish a model and methodology for assessing the demand for qualifications in the labour market and evaluating training needs. Secondly, as there is no single recipe regarding forecasting, it can serve as a source of inspiration that must be further adapted to specific needs and circumstances. The manual focuses on the practical tools and guidelines for launching and carrying out an enterprise-based survey on qualification demands and training needs assessment, rather than on a theoretical approach. The survey aims at providing up-dated labour market information as a basis for development of relevant VET and CVT measures. However, the survey is not exclusively based on the findings and recommendations made by employers, but also includes other stakeholders with the aim of verifying and specifying further the trends in the labour market regarding the demands for qualifications. Therefore the manual contains a set of guidelines on how to ensure stakeholder involvement in labour market surveys. Consequently, the manual describes procedures for a full cycle of activities from launching to final reporting on the expectations regarding the future demand for qualified labour on a periodical basis. The target group is first and foremost staff members of VET institutions and the employment services working frequently with labour market monitoring, analysis and development of human resources. It is important to stress that the qualitative results only can provide input as to the likely development in the demand. The methodology is not intended to comprise a scientific approach capable of forecasting exact qualification needs. It is a practical tool identifying likely development trends in a foreseeable future in the patterns of demand based on a relatively big sample of enterprises working in a regional context.

Sources of information Qualitative data is first of all collected from forums - selected experts or representative stakeholders. Forum members need to be selected carefully, and they need to receive background information in order to carry out their task. The information they provide will typically have the form of opinions - often conflicting. For instance, an analysis unit may continuously compile various sorts of information for the forum participants - for example surveys results, reports, or newspaper articles - which can form the background against which the forum can make its recommendations. Other sources of information may comprise reviews of relevant literature and experience gained by colleagues in other countries, regions or sectors.

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Labour Market Information Survey in Croatia. Manual on Forecasting and Assessment of Qualification Demands

Regarding qualitative data collection, special emphasis should be given to enterprise visits. As part of a canvassing strategy, the enterprise visits could be used not only for follow-up on these services, but also for informing potential customers about the services offered and for estimations of changes in the demand patterns. In general the conduction of such activities offers an opportunity to establish a dialogue with employers and other relevant stakeholders.

Approach The proposed model for data collection is based on the European Employment Strategy, specifically the EU Communication “Strengthening The Local Dimension of the European Employment Strategy” which emphasizes the stakeholder involvement/partnership and the bottom-up approach by putting a series of regional stakeholders into the focus. The principal, but not the only, stakeholder cooperation to be established in support of the survey consists of a partnership between enterprises (private and public), the Employment Service and the training providers of the region. Further details can be found on the website of the DG of Employment and Social Affairs: http://europa.eu.int/comm/employment_social/index_en.htm

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Labour Market Information Survey in Croatia. Manual on Forecasting and Assessment of Qualification Demands

3. Labour market information surveys Introduction The full cycle of activities in a labour market survey has to be carried out over a period of time. The activities can be grouped into six phases: • • • • • •

Preparation phase Implementation and collection of data Reporting Stakeholder involvement Qualification analysis Final reporting and dissemination

In the following section the activities of each phase will be described thoroughly. Figure one presents an ideal cycle of activities carried out over a period of 3 months. This cycle forms the basis of the detailed descriptions and recommendations of the manual. The resources available in the task force established will determine the length of the period. When planning the activities it has to be taken into consideration that a considerable number of enterprises and stakeholders are going to be addressed.

The preparation phase This section of the manual describes in detail how to establish and maintain a permanent sample of representative enterprises. The objective of the sample is to provide labour market information that will strengthen the planning of VET and CVT activities. Permanent sample of enterprises This section describes a methodology and model for establishing a permanent sample of enterprises for an exhaustive and ongoing survey. The same model can be used for a partial survey in selected economic sectors and occupations on the basis of collected basic information about the enterprises. A sampling methodology provides a simple and cost efficient road to fairly accurate indications of the future demand for qualifications – at this stage only according to the managers of the enterprises. First step: identification of enterprises The first step in the survey is to identify and approach the existing enterprises and inquire about their interest in becoming members of a group of enterprises forming a permanent sample of enterprises for an ongoing surveillance activity. Lack of information about the existing enterprises could be a major obstacle. Normally, the Employment Service would have a register of enterprises, which has been gradually developed in connection with enterprises looking for relevant candidates for vacancies. Other sources are public registers maintained by municipalities, regional authorities, tax offices, etc. Potential stakeholders such as Chambers of Commerce, employers’ associations and

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Labour Market Information Survey in Croatia. Manual on Forecasting and Assessment of Qualification Demands

SME development agencies might also provide information, and consequently these could be contacted in an effort to establish an overview. Second step: submission of questionnaires The second step is to send a questionnaire with a covering letter explaining the objective and background of the survey and offering assistance in completing the questionnaire. For an example of a questionnaire, see Annex 1, Basic information. The objective is to collect basic information about the enterprises, the current number of employees, the distribution of employees on principal occupational groups, and the expectations regarding the development of employment by occupation. Finally, this first contact offers an opportunity to present the services that ES and VET/CVT providers can offer. Possible obstacles: lack of motivation One of the major obstacles in connection with enterprise questionnaires is the risk of a low rate of returned questionnaires. A response rate around 20% is not unusual at all. However, if the enterprises feel well informed and have a sense of ownership, response percentages of 80 or 90% may be obtained. How is this done? First of all, the questionnaires must be short, targeted and easy to complete in order to get a high response percentage. If the enterprises do not return the questionnaires, a follow-up visit will be necessary. It will offer an opportunity to convince the enterprise that it is worth participating, and that the enterprise will benefit from the participation. Therefore, examples of the benefits gained by participating should be underlined: •

The information will reduce the risk of a shortage of qualified labour within the enterprise, as investments in training will be made where the demand is most urgent.

•

The enterprise will have an indirect influence on the regional labour market policy and training activities.

•

If requested, the enterprise will be contacted immediately to assist with any labour market issue or problem that might arise.

•

ES might consider publishing newsletters informing about current and expected changes on the labour market – including new legislation.

•

The ES and VET/CVT system can provide services in support of the HRD needs of the enterprises.

In short, the idea of a partnership focusing especially on the benefits of the enterprises should be stressed. A special effort must be made to ensure the participation of the large enterprises. They are expected to contribute more than small enterprises and will more often be trend-setting in their approach. Consequently, all major enterprises within each sector should be invited to participate in the permanent sample, as their contribution to the developments in the labour market is important.

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Labour Market Information Survey in Croatia. Manual on Forecasting and Assessment of Qualification Demands

Third step: selection of enterprises for the permanent sample Objective The most important objective of the enterprise sample is to make a systematic collection of data regarding the expected changes in the demand for skilled labour and the qualification profiles of different occupations. As thorough and detailed interviews cannot be conducted with all existing enterprises, a permanent sample is established among the enterprises that have responded positively to the first questionnaire. How to progress with the establishment of the sample Subdivision into 16 principal economic sectors is recommended for the analysis using the ISIC classification standard as the basis of an exhaustive survey. For further information about the ISIC classification please see www.ilo.org/public/english/bureau/stat/class/index.htm At least 4 enterprises within each category (economic sector by size) will be needed if the results are to have some reliability. Keep in mind that the number of enterprises returning the questionnaire is often less than 100%. If one operates with 16 economic sectors (which is seldom the case as certain sectors are absent or very small in certain regions) and 4 size groups, this means that: A minimum of 256 enterprises (16 economic sectors * 4 size groups * 4 enterprises) should be included in the permanent sample of a full-scale and exhaustive regional survey. The number of size groups can be reduced to 3 (small, medium-sized and large enterprises) in order to reduce the number of interviews to be conducted. This sample constitutes an ideal minimum composition. However, even the 16 economic sectors are composed of often very different sub-sectors both regarding development trends and occupational structure. An example is the engineering, bricklaying and electrician enterprises within the construction sector. In order to deal with this issue, a number of supplementary enterprises could be included in the permanent sample within these sectors to ensure that all important sub-sectors are represented in the sample. Exactly how many more enterprises this concerns is not possible to calculate. Based on knowledge of the local enterprise structure, local staff members of ES and VET institutions will decide when the sample has met this requirement. A good guess would be that: Approximately 100 to 250 additional enterprises will be needed in order to ensure the optimal representation of sub-sectors. The table below can be used for summing up the number of questionnaires returned from each type of enterprise.

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Labour Market Information Survey in Croatia. Manual on Forecasting and Assessment of Qualification Demands

Economic sector

1 - 29

30 – 49

50 - 99

< 100

Agriculture, mining Food, beverages, tobacco

Σ Personal services Total If more than the minimum number of enterprises should want to participate, the validity of the results would be improved. How to maintain the permanent sample As the survey will be an ongoing activity, the maintenance of the sample is important. The following ideas and suggestions might be considered to ensure a high degree of stability in the permanent sample. A stable permanent sample will make tracer analysis possible within a few years. •

When sending a new blank questionnaire, the already keyed-in questionnaire from the last period is enclosed. This means that the enterprise will only have to adjust the previous figures to the current situation. This is extremely important for the time used to fill in the question of employees broken down by occupation.

•

Furthermore, each questionnaire must be accompanied by a stamped addressed envelope if financial resources are available.

•

Enterprises should be visited once a year to show an interest and collect qualitative labour market information.

Registration of data and information During the preparatory phase a platform for the registration of the collected data should be taken into consideration. It seems obvious to develop an electronic database as this makes it fairly simple to add new data/make changes in the future. In the questionnaire special attention should be paid to the Area of Economic Activity code and name. For analytic purposes one main economic activity should be identified. Normally, the enterprise will know from their registration either at the Department of Statistics or other public bodies the accurate name of their main activity. If not, assistance should be offered, or the data can be filled in after receipt of the completed questionnaire. It is recommended to use internationally recognized code systems. The "International Standard Industrial Classification system of all economic activities" (ISIC)1 or "Nomenclature generale des Activités economiques dans la Communautes Européennes (NACE) offers internationally recognised standard classification systems for all economic activities.

1

The code system is available at the ILO homepage: 'http://www.ilo.org/public/english/bureau/stat/class/index.htm

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Labour Market Information Survey in Croatia. Manual on Forecasting and Assessment of Qualification Demands

The same applies to the section of the questionnaire that deals with occupations and current number of employees. It is recommended to use the international standard code system "International Standard Classification of Occupations - ISCO2" developed by ILO and implemented in most of the OECD, CEEC and many CIS countries.

Implementation and collection of data Once the preparation phase has been concluded, the detailed survey can be implemented addressing the enterprises included in the sample. This phase consists primarily in visits to the selected enterprises with the aim of conducting interviews with representatives of the management. The interviews are made on the basis of a developed questionnaire. For an example of a questionnaire please see Annex 2. First step: development of final version of questionnaire The content of the questionnaire is grouped around the same issues as the questionnaires for the selection of enterprises for the permanent sample (Annex 1). However, the degree of detailing is larger. The questionnaires concentrate on 6 central issues regarding: • • • • • •

The volume of production The employment of different occupations The qualification requirements for current vacancies Detection of shortage problems regarding the provision of qualified labour Expectations regarding the number of employees in each occupation one year ahead Training needs in the companies

The questionnaire aims at providing an overview by economic sector of the likely developments in the expectations regarding employment and, to a minor extent, the overall qualifications demanded in different occupations. It is important to stress that apart from the current status, the questionnaire must provide information about the expectations of the enterprises at least one year ahead. The questionnaire must be developed as a uniform standard to be applied by all task forces involved in the survey. Differences and even minor changes cannot be allowed for, as the findings of different task forces are consequently not comparative. Second step: planning of the visits to enterprises The number of interviews to be carried out will depend on the number of economic sectors to be analysed. If an exhaustive survey is planned, it will involve visits and interviews at 256 enterprises in each region. It is estimated that an average of 2 hours must be invested in each interview, including the time spent on transport. In practise this means that 44 man-days must be dedicated to the activity. When planning the surveys, this issue must be dealt with.

2

See note 1.

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Labour Market Information Survey in Croatia. Manual on Forecasting and Assessment of Qualification Demands

One of the ways to reduce the work load is to select only the most relevant economic sectors in the affected regions. For example, he 6 economically most important sectors can be selected (those contributing most to the national economy in terms of income and employment), which would reduce the number of visits to 96. The final issue to be addressed is the appointment of the interviewers. The fewer, the more homogeneous the conduction of interviews will be. It is recommended to ask two interviewers to conduct the first interviews together so that they can assist and learn from each other in case we are dealing with inexperienced staff members. Third step: scheduling and preparing the individual visits Step-by-step guidelines for the interviewer 1. Make an appointment with the managing director of the factory by phone Prepare a short presentation of the survey including: • • • •

Objective Organisations involved Geographical area covered Economic sectors involved

Ask for permission to make follow-up interviews with selected staff members at a later stage, as the plan is to make a “deeper” qualification analysis in the selected sectors and occupations. Finally, settle a date and time, inform about the number of interviewers and the expected duration of the interview. 2. Preparations before the interview Make sure that all the members of the team are familiar with the questionnaires and the procedure that you are going to follow during the interview. Discuss any doubts or proposals that you might have during a meeting. 3. Implementation of the interview Do not argue with the interviewee, stay neutral and diplomatic, but ask for further explanation if you don’t understand his/her statements. Make sure that you have understood the answers correctly and that you have written down all the answers. If the interviewee resists answering a question or is not able to answer, then carry on with the next question. Don’t comment on the reluctance or lack of ability to answer.

Reporting The reporting primarily consists in clustering and systematizing the collected data from the two questionnaires used up to now. It is recommended to follow the structure of the questionnaire section by section and to focus on the questionnaires filled in by means of interviews. The reporting is done regionally, and at a later stage the data can be merged into a

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Labour Market Information Survey in Croatia. Manual on Forecasting and Assessment of Qualification Demands

national survey according to the same criteria as below. In order to be able to do the merging the data must be reported according to the same criteria in each region. First step: calculation of the total number of enterprises In order to form an idea of the validity of the sample of enterprises the number of enterprises addressed by means of the first questionnaire (Annex 1) is entered into the table below. Obviously, the breakdown by economic sector must be built on the same classification system as the one used while planning the survey. In this case the ISIC classification is used. Table 1, Enterprises identified in each region by economic sector and size Economic sector

1 - 29

30 – 49

50 - 99

< 100

Agriculture, mining Food, beverages, tobacco

Σ Personal services Total

Second step: sample of enterprises Next step is to fill in exactly the same table again, but now only enter data on the enterprises selected for the sample. They are broken down by economic sector and size for each region. The sampling of enterprises is described in table 2. Table 2, sample of enterprises broken down by economic sector and size in each region Economic sector

1 - 29

30 – 49

50 - 99

< 100

Agriculture, mining Food, beverages, tobacco

Σ Personal services Total

Third step: expectations regarding employment by economic sector The expectations are then calculated by economic sector and entered into table 3.

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Labour Market Information Survey in Croatia. Manual on Forecasting and Assessment of Qualification Demands

Table 3, Number of enterprises expecting increasing, unchanged and decreasing employment within the next 12 months by economic sectors Economic sector

Increased Absolute fig.

Percentage

Unchanged Absolute fig.

Percentage

Decreased Absolute fig.

Percentage

Net change Absolute fig.

Percentage

Agriculture, mining Food, beverages, tobacco ∑ Personal services TOTAL

60

100%

After filling in the data, conclusions should be drawn on the general development trends in the pattern of demand of the different economic sectors: •

X% of the enterprises in the sample expected to increase employment during the next 12 months

•

Y% expected decreasing employment

•

Z% expected no changes

At this stage the first input for recommendations regarding possible initiatives or interventions is formed. The economic sectors showing clear signs of a positive development can be put on a list of priority/observation list. Fourth step: current and expected number of employees In order to establish a relation between the general expectations regarding the development trends in employment and the relative numerical importance of each sector the total number of employees (current and foreseen) must be stated. Table 4 shows that the sample enterprises employed altogether xxxx employees or xx% of the total employment within economic sector 1 and xx% within economic sector 2. The sample enterprises within economic sector 1 expect to increase/decrease employment by x% within the next 12 months. Within economic sector 2 the figure is an x% increase/decrease in employment. If the sample is representative of the total employment within the two sectors, it is expected that employment will increase/decrease by xxx workplaces in sector 1 and xx workplaces in sector 2 within the next 12 months.

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Labour Market Information Survey in Croatia. Manual on Forecasting and Assessment of Qualification Demands

Table 4, Current and expected number of employees Economic sector

Total employment3

Employees in sample4

Expected net change5

Estimated net change

Abso- Percent- Abso- Percent- Abso- Percent- Abso- Percentlute age lute age lute age6 lute7 age Agriculture, mining Food, beverages, tobacco

∑ Personal services TOTAL

100%

100%

Fifth step: expectations regarding employment by occupation For the first time in the survey we are moving the attention towards the occupations and consequently towards the concept of qualifications. Up to now we have been dealing with economic sectors, employment and quantitative needs. Only to a very limited extent the analysis carried out has dealt with occupations and qualifications. We are now gradually beginning to analyse the qualitative aspects. The first step towards a qualification analysis is to list all occupations detected by means of interviews. Table 5 below represents a tool for the registration of occupations identified by the enterprises in the different economic sectors and the expectations regarding the number of employees. Please be aware that the classification system used in the first column is now the ISCO standard. The occupations listed are taken from section 5 of questionnaire 2 (Annex 2), and all occupations mentioned must be entered. Fill in the table below in such a way that data from all enterprises in one economic sector are registered in one table even though a number of the listed occupations might belong to another occupational “family”. This will allow the registration of data that are relevant for other sectors and sub-sectors. For example transport is a sector, but lorry-driving is an occupation. Lorry-drivers are often employed in other sectors than transport.

3

Latest available data collected from the Statistical Department

4

Calculated on the basis of question 1 in the questionnaire, “Total current number of employed persons”

5

Calculated on the basis of question 2 in the questionnaire, “Total expected change in employment during the next 12 months”

6

Expected net change (percentage) = (Expected net change (absolute) / Employees in sample (absolute)) x 100

7

Estimated net change (absolute) = Total employment (absolute) + (Total employment (absolute) x Expected net change (percentage))

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Labour Market Information Survey in Croatia. Manual on Forecasting and Assessment of Qualification Demands

Table 5, Expected numbers of employed persons one year ahead by occupation Economic sector: ISIC Code: ISCO Code

1223

Occupation

Current number

Expected number +/-/÷

Managers Administrative staff Engineers Marketing and sales staff

General workers Total Sixth step, indication of qualification requirements by occupation Sections 3, 4 and 6 of questionnaire 2 (Annex 2) concentrate on identifying the first general qualifications required by the enterprises in the outlined occupations. It is definitely not a qualification analysis, only a first registration of very general skills requirements and training needs. Sections 3 and 4 of the questionnaire focus on skills requirements regarding current vacancies. In this connection table 6 below must be filled in. List only the occupations where va-

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Labour Market Information Survey in Croatia. Manual on Forecasting and Assessment of Qualification Demands

cancies have been identified by the enterprises. Tick the relevant box under the heading Qualification requirements. The objective is to get an idea of the priorities of the enterprises regarding the type of qualifications at this first stage. When interviewing employers on qualification requirements, they tend to mention the occupation only and consider this to be identical with the qualifications. Table 6, Qualification requirements in vacancies Code

Occupation

Qualification requirements Education

Work experience

IT skills

Other

Section 6 of the questionnaire is an opportunity to get a first impression of the training needs of the current workforce and consequently to form an impression of the qualifications demanded by the employers. Obviously, it is especially relevant for the training providers to study this issue. If training needs have been identified, these must be added to the report. Table 7, Identified training needs Economic sector ISIC Code

Occupation

ISCO Code

Training needs

Seventh step: expected employment situation and proposals for initiatives The final step in the reporting is the evaluation of the expected employment situation sector by sector and occupation by occupation. The objective is to have a clear picture of the development trends in the labour market, imbalances between supply and demand and ur-

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Labour Market Information Survey in Croatia. Manual on Forecasting and Assessment of Qualification Demands

gent shortage problems in specific occupations and sectors. An example of a registration form is found in Annex 4. At this point not only a description of the current situation is produced, but also a prognosis on the likely development within a year. Obviously, you can only guess if a problem is temporary or constant, especially if it is the first time that a survey is made. The reliability of the guesses is increased in case surveys have been made on an ongoing basis as the developments have then been followed over a long period. It is important to stress that the survey is not only a registration of the data collected among enterprises. It also involves an evaluation by the surveying team. The expectations of the enterprises can be held against data collected by the Employment Service regarding the number of registered vacancies during the last 3 months. If the expectations regarding employment expressed by the enterprises in one economic sector coincide with a high number of registered vacancies at the Employment Service, a clear indication of a positive development has been identified. If a shortage problem or an imbalance between supply and demand has been identified, there is a need to take immediate action, if possible. The kind of initiative to be launched will, of course, depend on the tools at the disposal of the labour market authorities. In Annex 4 a tentative list of the principal, common tools can be found under the heading Priority list. The necessary adaptations of the list must be made, deleting and adding tools according to local circumstances. When step 7 has been concluded, the first report is ready for presentation and further discussions with the stakeholder group.

Stakeholder8 involvement One of the key issues to be addressed after the conduction of enterprise interviews is the definition of other relevant sources of information and data, because so far we have been relying exclusively on the opinions of the employers. In addition to the information and data available in publications and literature, scientific research and mass media, the different stakeholders can provide useful information about development trends in the labour market and in the demand for skills. The involvement of stakeholders is vital for at least three basic reasons: • • •

Verification of the findings and conclusions of the survey Supplementary input about expected development trends Dissemination of the survey

The verification has to be carried out. Otherwise there is a high risk of committing errors, as the data have been collected exclusively among the employers. It can be claimed that the employers tend to be too closely linked to their own immediate needs. Furthermore, they have a very limited interest in disadvantaged groups on the labour market.

8

In this manual the term “stakeholder” is defined as individuals, groups of individuals, associations (including NGOs) and public entities/authorities who have something at stake, or who share a significant interest in the survey.

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Labour Market Information Survey in Croatia. Manual on Forecasting and Assessment of Qualification Demands

Obviously, all supplementary information available must be included in the survey. This refers to a broad range of issues that could have an impact on the labour market: • • • • • • •

New investments New legislation affecting the employment situation and qualification needs Community initiatives to be launched New market opportunities Introduction of new technologies Special needs of certain groups Etc.

After completion of the report on the findings and conclusions from the interviews preparations for the involvement of stakeholders should be started, and it is recommended to pay thorough attention to these preparations. The preparations can be made in four steps. First step: identification of stakeholders Up to now three important types of stakeholders have been involved: enterprises, employment offices and training providers. However, more stakeholders can be identified. As the survey is conducted regionally, only stakeholders physically present in the region should be taken into consideration. Start out by producing a list of possible local and regional stakeholders, e.g.: • • • • • • •

Trade unions Employers’ associations Trade organisations Municipal and regional authorities Regional development agencies SME development centres NGOs

Next step is to identify all specific stakeholders that you know under each of these categories and list them with name, address and other coordinates. Second step: selection of stakeholders Among the potential stakeholders the most relevant ones have to be addressed. In this context it is decisive to discuss the term relevance. In this connection it is important to take into consideration the objective of the stakeholder involvement, which is verification, further input and dissemination, cf. above. Focus should be set on selecting stakeholders who are committed and have a professional attitude to the future developments rather than a defensive interest in preserving the present situation. Associations of employers and trade organisations very often deal with issues related to the development trends of the economy. One of their concerns is how the competitiveness and growth of the enterprises can be enhanced in an open market economy, and as a consequence they are often interested in human resource development.

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Labour Market Information Survey in Croatia. Manual on Forecasting and Assessment of Qualification Demands

As their counterpart the trade unions also have an interest in the qualifications of the workforce, but might not automatically share the opinions of the employers. The type of qualifications that the trade unions are interested in, would be broader and more general in order to ensure that they are transferable from one enterprise to another. In general, it can be said that though different stakeholders might not share the same interest, it is very important to offer them a say, because it is the only way to establish a dialogue in support of the survey being carried out. Often the dialogue in itself will enable stakeholders with different positions to establish an understanding of the fact that, despite the differences, they share a common interest. The stakeholders to be addressed can be selected on the basis of the above considerations.. Third step: method of approach Different approaches to the stakeholders can be used. The two most common are: • •

Interviews with the individual stakeholders Stakeholder meeting

In both cases a questionnaire must form the basis of the activity. The questionnaire serves as a uniform and common tool for verifying and evaluating the results of the survey up to now, and for providing more input on the same issues. Normally, it would be an advantage to arrange a stakeholder meeting instead of interviewing each stakeholder individually. This is due to practical reasons because it is less timeconsuming, but what is more important, it is an opportunity to bring people, who are not in regular contact, together. The stakeholders will, in most cases, contribute to creating a consensus on the developments trends in the labour market. If it is the first time that a regional labour market survey is carried out, it is a good idea to make an extra effort to ensure the commitment to the invited stakeholders, as the labour market survey is not a one-time event. It is the intention to conduct surveys on a regular basis in the future, and consensus and support from the stakeholders will be needed in the future as well. Fourth step: development of a questionnaire for stakeholders Once a decision has been made on the method of approach, the questionnaire can be developed. For an example of a questionnaire, see Annex 3.

Qualification analysis Introduction Up to now the manual has concentrated on forecasting of the overall and quantitative development trends/changes in the demand of labour within different economic sectors and occupations. The activities have only to a minor degree been focussing on the qualitative aspects of the demand, i.e. the demand for qualifications. In continuation of the forecasting activities providing information on number of employees in specific occupations by branch, and expected changes in these numbers, the present sec-

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Labour Market Information Survey in Croatia. Manual on Forecasting and Assessment of Qualification Demands

tion of the manual will focus on describing a method for analysing the demand for qualifications and the composition of these within different occupations. The qualification analysis is an essential element in the survey activities, as it provides the basis for meeting the demand – or put in other words, it is the tool for making the demand and supply meet each other. The enterprises are demanding qualifications and skills, and only to a minor extent numbers. Furthermore, the qualification analysis provides decisive information for the training providers, information the creates a basis for design of curricula and delivery of training packages tailored to the needs of the labour market in a broad sense. The overall objective of the qualification analysis is •

To determine the skills, qualifications and knowledge required by the employers for the occupations in question

In addition to that the analysis offers an opportunity •

To determine the gap between the skills, qualifications and knowledge of jobseekers and the developed qualification profile

And finally it allows for •

educational planning with the aim of closing the gap.

The following sections will concentrate on the overall objective of the qualification analysis, as the survey as a whole concentrate on the demand for qualifications and skills. The typical qualification analysis would normally be composed of 3 activities: • 1st step Planning the qualification analysis To conduct a qualification analysis on all occupations in a given geographical area would be ideal. However, it is not realistic because resources very seldom are available for an exhaustive analysis and it might also not be relevant. Therefore it is recommended that you build on the conclusions of the forecasting, on the results of table 7 of the report form and make a selection of the occupations characterised by positive expectations.

Local partnership for employment Croatia European Union – CARDS 2002

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Labour Market Information Survey in Croatia. Manual on Forecasting and Assessment of Qualification Demands

Local partnership for employment Croatia European Union – CARDS 2002

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Labour Market Information Survey in Croatia. Manual on Forecasting and Assessment of Qualification Demands

Questionnaire for enterprises Basic information Name:

_______________________________

Address:

_______________________________

Postal code: _______________________________

Postal district: _________________

Contact person: _____________________________ Area of economic activity: ____________________

Code: _________________

Phone:

_______________________________

Fax:

E-mail:

_______________________________

Type of enterprise: __________________________

_________________

Private: __ Public: ___ Other: __

Number of employees Current number Permanent employees Temporary employees Total

Number of employees by occupation Code

Occupation

Current number

Total

Do you expect any changes in employment during the next 12 months? Yes: ____ No: ____ If yes, please specify Code

Occupation

Qualification Local partnership for employment Croatia European Union – CARDS 2002

No. +/- When?

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Labour Market Information Survey in Croatia. Manual on Forecasting and Assessment of Qualification Demands

Total

Local partnership for employment Croatia European Union – CARDS 2002

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Labour Market Information Survey in Croatia. Manual on Forecasting and Assessment of Qualification Demands

Would you like to be contacted by the Employment Service regarding: Services

Please specify

When?

Wage subsidies Placement services Training needs Mass lay-off Legal questions Any other subject

Local partnership for employment Croatia European Union – CARDS 2002

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Labour Market Information Survey in Croatia. Manual on Forecasting and Assessment of Qualification Demands

Would you like to be contacted by the Employment Service regarding: Services

Please specify

When?

Wage subsidies Placement services Training needs Mass lay-off Legal questions Any other subject

Local partnership for employment Croatia European Union – CARDS 2002

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Labour Market Information Survey in Croatia. Manual on Forecasting and Assessment of Qualification Demands

Annex 2

Questionnaire - construction Name: Address: Postal code and district: Contact person: Area of economic activity: SIC code/name: 1. Compared to the previous year, have the following economic indicators increased, decreased, or do they remain unchanged? (please mark with an X) Indicator

Increased

Unchanged

Decreased

Production Number of staff hired Number of laid off staff 2. Current and expected number of employees Males

Females

Total

Current number of employees Expected number of employees 6 months ahead Expected number of employees 12 months ahead Number of vacant jobs within the past 6 months 3. Information on current vacancies Qualification requirements Occupation

M/F

Education

Work Langu experience ages

Local partnership for employment Croatia European Union – CARDS 2002

Other

Salary per month (max/min)

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Labour Market Information Survey in Croatia. Manual on Forecasting and Assessment of Qualification Demands

4. Experienced shortages of skilled labour Have you - within the last 6 month - experienced any shortages of skilled labour in relation to the filling of vacancies? Yes

No

If “Yes”, please state below the number, occupation and specific skills related to the vacancy. Code

Occupation

Skills

Number

5. Expected number of employees one year ahead by occupation Code

Current number

Occupation (ex)

Expected change (+/-)

Managers Administrative staff Engineers Marketing and sales

Local partnership for employment Croatia European Union – CARDS 2002

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Labour Market Information Survey in Croatia. Manual on Forecasting and Assessment of Qualification Demands

Code

Occupation (ex)

Current number

Expected change (+/-)

Other occupations

General workers Total

Local partnership for employment Croatia European Union – CARDS 2002

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Labour Market Information Survey in Croatia. Manual on Forecasting and Assessment of Qualification Demands

6. Does your enterprise expect to have a need for training courses within construction in the year to come? (Please state needs not mentioned below) No

Don’t know Name/area:

9

Yes Approximate number of employees9

Please state which: Please specify

Expected period

Including new staff, where the qualifications are a precondition for employment or a proper work performance.

Local partnership for employment Croatia European Union – CARDS 2002

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Labour Market Information Survey in Croatia. Manual on Forecasting and Assessment of Qualification Demands

7. Does your enterprise expect to have a need for training courses within administration, management or other general skills within the year to come? (Please state needs not mentioned below) No

Don’t know

Yes

Name/area:

Approximate number of employees10

Please state which: Please specify

Expected period

Basic IT Internet Database Spreadsheet Network Desktop publishing Word-processing Accounting Salary and wages Laws and regulations Organisation and co-operation Taxes and auditing Foreign languages

10

Including new staff, where the qualifications are a precondition for employment or a proper work performance.

Local partnership for employment Croatia European Union – CARDS 2002

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Labour Market Information Survey in Croatia. Manual on Forecasting and Assessment of Qualification Demands

6. Would you like to be contacted by the Employment service and Vocational School regarding: Services

Please specify

When?

Simulating resources for employment. For additional information ask in the Employment Office. Training needs (Retrainings, additional trainings and vocational trainings) Mass lay-off Legal assistance Additional trainings provided by VET School Any other subject

Filled in by:

Date:

Local partnership for employment Croatia European Union – CARDS 2002

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Labour Market Information Survey in Croatia. Manual on Forecasting and Assessment of Qualification Demands

Annex 3

Expected employment situation and initiatives implemented

Sector: Expectations of the Employment Service Increasing

Constant

Decreasing

Increasing

Constant

Decreasing

Next quarter compared to the same quarter last year: Next year compared to current quarter: Expectations of the panel of enterprises Next quarter compared to the same quarter last year: Next year compared to current quarter: Status of priority list Which initiatives have been implemented in connection with the occupational groups mentioned in the priority list? What has been done since the list was published? All initiatives must be mentioned, irrespective of e.g. recruitment problems in the local area.

Code

Others

Tripartite dialogues

Job bank

Projects

Courses etc.

Labour force substitution

International placement

Cross-regional placement

Public job training

Private job training

Adult trainees

Bottleneck category

Initiatives attempted without success must be marked with an “O”. Successful initiatives must be marked with an “X”.

Occupational designation

Local partnership for employment Croatia European Union – CARDS 2002

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Labour Market Information Survey in Croatia. Manual on Forecasting and Assessment of Qualification Demands

Annex 4 Expected employment situation and proposals for initiatives Economic sector: Expectations of the Employment Service Increasing

Constant

Decreasing

Increasing

Constant

Decreasing

Next half year compared to the same period last year: Next year compared to current half year: Expectations of the enterprises Next half year compared to the same period last year: Next year compared to current half year: Priority list

Local partnership for employment Croatia European Union – CARDS 2002

Others

Projects

Complementary courses etc.

Training

Cross-regional placement

Public job training

Private job training

Adult apprenticeship

Code Occupational designation

Shortage problem

Which initiatives can be implemented in connection with the occupational groups mentioned in the priority list?

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