4 January, 2016

Maldives Political Crisis: An Appraisal Dr. M. Samatha* The political crisis in Maldives has raised various questions about the reasons behind the ongoing crisis, government’s handling of the situation, likely domestic economic and security scenarios and implications for regional security. In this context, this Issue Brief will try to analyze various aspects involved in the continuing political crisis.

The Government of Maldives issued a Presidential decree on 4th November this year, which declared a state of emergency in Maldives for thirty days. The reasons for this move as given by the government were as follows: 

Dangerous weapons and explosive devises were found in two locations in Maldives after joint operations were carried out by the Maldives Police Services (MPS) and Maldives National Defence Force (MNDF), following an explosion on a boat carrying the President on 28th September 2015.



The government received definite information of plans by some individuals to use these explosives and weapons that would threaten the national security.

As per the government, the decision was taken after consultation with the National Security Council, which led to the suspension of rights guaranteed by the constitution, such as freedom from restraint, privacy, right to strike, assembly and movement. The emergency declaration was not an isolated event and it has to be looked at in the context of the continuing political

ICWA Issue Brief

crisis the country has been witnessing after the formation of the first democratically elected government in 2008. Since then, Maldives witnessed democratic uncertainty due to difference of opinion between political parties on various issues, such as the electoral process, constitutional reforms or amendments, judicial process, economic and security policy, growing extremism and issues related to foreign policy. Adding up to these issues is the centralisation of power.

Absence of Bipartisan Approach The first democratically elected government of Nasheed came to power in 2008 after defeating Mr. Gayoom, who ruled the country for thirty years under authoritarian framework. Subsequent to 2008 Presidential elections, the Parliamentary elections of 2009 and Local Council elections of 2011 witnessed the consolidation of opposition parties led by Gayoom. This resulted in confrontation at every level of governance between the President and the Majlis dominated by two different political formations, i. e., the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) and Dhivehi Rayyithunge Party (DRP). In 2011, Mr. Gayoom left the party over internal differences and formed the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM), currently run by his half brother and President Mr. Yameen.

As part of his development agenda, Mr. Nasheed promised economic reforms, development of tourism sector and freedom of press. The government embarked upon the modernization of international airport, which was a need to develop the tourism industry. However, soon, differences surfaced on issues, such as the modernization of the airport and on mechanisms adopted to develop the judiciary. For instance, as the agreement was being finalized with GMR India to modernize the airport, the Majlis passed an amendment to the Financial Regulation Act (FRA) that prevented the Government of Maldives from giving land to a foreign company without the permission of the Majlis. Former President Nasheed asked his entire Cabinet to resign in June 2010 on the grounds that the Majlis was not cooperating in his economic reforms. The opposition led by the PPM claimed that the ‘lease was unconstitutional and vowed to make all sacrifices to get back the airport to the people to ensure (that) a clean transaction is done according to the relevant laws’.1

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The then President, Mr. Nasheed, resigned in February 2012 due to domestic opposition to his government’s order to arrest the Chief Justice of the criminal court. Nasheed alleged that ‘Judge Abdulla had shielded a number of powerful politicians in corruption cases by refusing to issue orders to investigate, and many complaints had been made regarding his conduct’. Mr. Nasheed’s rule also witnessed anti-government demonstrations regarding government failure to curtail increasing food prices. Under these circumstances, the then Vice President, Mr. Waheed assumed office as President in 2012 February and formed a “Unity Government”. The MDP kept itself out of the new government. Meanwhile, the contract with GMR was terminated and Mr. Nasheed was charged for illegal detention of the Chief Justice.

2013 and 2014 Elections and Confrontations After the resignation of the first democratically elected President in 2012, the second Presidential elections were held in 2013. This election witnessed a tough contest between the MDP and the PPM. Apart from these two candidates, the Jumhoori Party (JP) led by Qasim Ibrahim and incumbent President, Mr. Waheed contested the elections. The election manifestos of the four leading parties reflected on issues, such as education, health care, tourism, decentralization and foreign policy.

The problem started when the first round of election, which was held on 7th September 2013, was announced. In the first round, the MDP candidate, Mr. Nasheed, ‘secured a majority with 45.45 per cent of votes. The PPM led by Mr. Yameen secured 25.35 per cent of vote and the JP secured 24.07 per cent and the incumbent President, Mr. Waheed could secure around 05.13 per cent.’2 The voter turnout at the election stood at 88 per cent and commonwealth observers termed the election as transparent. Since none of the candidates secured the majority needed to form the government, which is 50 per cent of the total valid votes cast in the election, the two leading candidates had to face a run-off election.

The first round election results witnessed quick political alliances and questions were also raised regarding transparency in the electoral process conducted by the Election Commission (EC). The two presidential candidates belonging to two political parties had come together to challenge the verdict of the people. The JP and the PPM alleged lack of 3 | www.icwa.in

ICWA Issue Brief

transparency in the voter list and petitioned in the Supreme Court (SC) to annul the election until their apprehensions are cleared. Because, the first round election results of 2013 had set the stage for the return of former President, Mr. Nasheed. There were allegations against these parties that the time that was available between the first round of election in September and the final elections that took place in November 2013 were used to mobilize opinion in favour of PPM. The presidential elections were postponed thrice. Finally, the runoff elections were held in November 2013 and Mr. Yameen assumed office as the President securing around 51 per cent of the votes. Mr. Nasheed secured around 48 per cent.

In the second Parliamentary elections held in March 2014, the PPM coalition consisting of JP and Maldives Democratic Alliance (MDA) formed the government. Out of 85 seats in the Parliament, the MDP won 26 seats, the PPM won 33 seats and the JP won 15 and the Maldives Development Alliance (MDA) won 5 seats. By forging a coalition, the PPM could secure the required 43 seats to form the government. Since then, the current President, Mr. Yameen, tried to consolidate his powers.

During these elections, the confrontation between the SC and the EC regarding the election process resulted in the cancelation of elections and disqualification of EC members by the SC. For example, the SC in October 2013, cancelled the first round of Presidential elections conducted by the EC, citing lack of legitimacy and ordered the EC to conduct elections based on its 16 point guidelines. Many argued that ‘the repeated interference of the SC in the elections had given the political parties a veto power over EC’, curbing its independence to implement its mandate. There were also reports of non-cooperation by the Maldivian Police Service (MPS) personnel, acting on behest of political parties.

The SC also disqualified two members of the EC, President Fuwad Thowfeek and his deputy, Ahamed Fayaz, because the EC was vocal in its disappointment with the SC and its 16 guidelines before a parliamentary committee. In early February 2014, the Supreme Court launched a suo moto action against the Election Commission. In the case, the four members of the EC were accused of contempt of court. The US State Department has described “Supreme Court interference to subvert the presidential elections process,” as the most significant 4 | www.icwa.in

ICWA Issue Brief

human rights problems in Maldives in its 2013 human rights report. The judiciary was described as “not independent and impartial and was subject to influence and corruption.”3

Post Election Developments On the political front, to consolidate President’s power over the Parliament and independent institutions, particularly the judiciary, the government enacted new laws. For example, the government removed the SC Chief Justice, Ahmed Faiz Hussain, Judge Muthasim Adnan and Auditor General Niyaz Ibrahim in 2014. The removal was done through amendments to the Judicature Act, which reduced the SC bench from seven to five. The Auditor General’s Act was passed to give power to the President on the appointment of the AG. The grounds for removal ‘were not publicized, putting a question mark on the transparency of the process’,4 because Article 154 of the Constitution of the Maldives states that ‘a judge may be removed from office only if the Judicial Service Commission finds the person grossly incompetent, or guilty of gross misconduct’. Meanwhile, the government appointed a controversial SC Justice Ali Hameed as Judicial Service Commission (JSC) Chair. Meanwhile, ‘many laws were passed and revised, such as the Penal Code, Anti Torture Act, the Prison and Parole Act, the Anti-Money Laundering and Anti-Terrorism Financing Act and the Extradition, Mutual Legal Assistance on Criminal Matters and Transfer of Prisoners.’5 At the economic front, President Yameen’s government passed a Special Economic Zone (SEZ) Act with an objective of facilitating industrial development and diversifying investments’.6 The Act contemplates several types of zones, such as industrial estates, export processing zones, hi-tech parks and free trade zones. Tax exemptions were offered to port industries, transportation and communication, and service industries. The Act restricted foreigners holding a lease in excess of 99 years.

Developments in 2015 This year, democratisation process in Maldives witnessed number of challenges and move towards greater centralisation of power. Centralisation of power is taking place in many ways i.e, through arrests of political leaders, political alliances, judicial interference, and constitutional amendments. Adding up to these challenges are media control, parliament switch over’s, uneven economic development and growing radicalisation. These challenges are discussed briefly below. 5 | www.icwa.in

ICWA Issue Brief

Nasheed’s Arrest The Government of Maldives systematically targeted the opposition through arrests, intimidations and monitory favours. The political crisis took a new turn when the MDP leader and former President was arrested in February and sentenced to thirteen years imprisonment on terrorism charges for his role in January 2012 detention of the Chief Justice, Mr. Abdulla. Since then, the opposition MDP tried to organize mass rallies under the banner “Maldives for Justice”, “Maldivians against Brutality” to put pressure on the government to release the former President. In a major setback to the MDP, ‘the government passed a law banning prisoners from political party membership’ to ensure that Nasheed’s candidature for future elections becomes invalid’.7

After the arrest, the Government of Maldives had put up stiff resistance against international criticism and concern over the arrests, terming it ‘as an internal problem of Maldives’. According to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) the trial of Mr. Nasheed was marred by gross violations of international standards of fair trial including Article 14 of the international convention on civil and political rights, to which Maldives acceded in 2006. The violations were: 1. Two of three judges presiding over the trial testified in the 2012 investigation. 2. Denial of legal representation to Nasheed during the first hearing on Feb 23 and the denial of defence team of full access to evidence and state witness and the opportunity to consult with Nasheed. 3. The court denied Nasheed to seek new representation after his lawyers quit in protest of the court’s refusal to grant sufficient time to mount a defence.

The government also objected the UN Working Group Report on Arbitrary Detention on grounds that ‘it is non-binding and opined that a number of contentious matters have been decided in favour of Nasheed in the absence of any credible evidence being put to the government.’8 The report suggested that the arrest of former President was arbitrary and against the international law.

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After Nasheed, the then ‘Defence Minister, Mr. Mohammed Nazim was also arrested on terrorism charges.’9 The government alleged that Mr. Nazim conspired with the JP leader to harm senior government officials. In protest, the defence coordinator, Mohamed Mushrif and Ibrahim Luthfy, Human Rights Envoy of the Maldivian government to the UN Permanent Mission in Geneva resigned from their posts.

Political Alliances MDP-JP Alliance In the meantime, the PPM coalition partner, the JP had an agreement with the MDP to defend the constitution of Maldives. Even though the JP alleged that they had to leave the coalition due to government’s repeated violations of the constitution, curbing basic rights and freedoms and influencing independent state institutions, the main problem lies in differences over sharing of power between the coalition partners. The split was the result of President’s non acceptance of the candidature of JP leader, Gasim Ibrahim, as the speaker of the Parliament. Instead, the President favoured a PPM candidate for the post. The JP also could not reconcile with the fact that it was not consulted in nominating candidates to independent institutions by the President. Following Gasim’s decision to stand against the PPM’s candidate for Majlis speaker last year, the PPM unilaterally expelled the JP from the ruling coalition’. 10 The change of political alliances led to stronger opposition by the middle of this year. The MDP and JP along with the Adhaalath Party (AP) had put up pressure on the government to release Nasheed.

The opposition demands were centred ‘on the release of the political prisoners, withdrawal of political charges pressed against political leaders, preventing constitutional changes and laws that impinge on fundamental rights, investigation of corruption within the government, providing electric subsidy, legal empowerment of independent institutions, unlimited health insurance, increase in the wages of teachers, health workers and civil servants’.11

To break the opposition coalition, the government targeted the JP leaders’ business venture, the Villa Group, which is one of the largest companies in the Maldives, ‘with the 7 | www.icwa.in

ICWA Issue Brief

holding company, Villa Shipping and Trading Pvt. Ltd. conglomerate operating businesses in shipping, import and export, retail, tourism, fishing, media, communications, transport, and education’. The Tourism Ministry cancelled the agreements for seven islands leased to the group in March and issued a US$100 million claim against the group, aimed at state appropriation of the property of the group.

The government also targeted the Adhaalath Party President, Sheikh Imran Abdulla and arrested him on terrorism charges and accused him of inciting violence at a mass antigovernment demonstration on May 1st. The ‘JP Deputy Leader, Ameen Ibrahim and JP council member, Sobah Rasheed were also charged with terrorism in late May. ‘Mr. Ameen and Sobah have since been living in self-exile in the UK with the latter seeking asylum’.12

MDP-Government Talks The Maldives government’s resistance to adhere to international pressure with regard to the release of Mr. Nasheed had a domestic impact in terms of change in methods adopted by the main opposition the MDP to secure the release of former President. The MDP agreed to go with the government’s proposal for constitutional and legislative changes. In July, the MDP and the government entered into talks. To fulfil the demands of the MDP, i. e., the release of Mr. Nasheed and quashing of charges against 1700 political activists, the government asked for support in the Parliament. The MDP supported the government’s initiatives to change the age limits for Presidential and Vice-Presidential candidates; impeachment of Vice-President Jameel and legislative support for specific projects.

The MDP had given various justifications for the support extended to PPM in the Parliament. These were: 

The initial reservations about imposing an upper age limit on the Presidency and Vice Presidency was relinquished after the JP asked the MDP to support it.



On the issue of allowing foreigners to use land in the Maldives for infinite period, the MDP expressed its reservations, as this move could lead to foreign, non-commercial logistical installations being built in Maldives. Therefore, ‘the MDP took a position that

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national security and peace and security of Indian Ocean must be guaranteed in the process’.13 

The government also asked the MDP to issue a moratorium on street protests and actions, which the MDP complied with, with an assurance that the government will reciprocate on its demands.

Outcome of the Deal The MDP and government talks did not benefit the MDP as a party that stood for democracy against an authoritarian rule. Because the government went back on its promise of releasing political prisoners and had sent Mr. Nasheed back to prison from house arrest. The MDP supported the candidature of Mr. Adeeb for Vice-President despite airing reservations about the Minister in the past on corruption and criminal charges and for encouraging Islamic radicals. For instance, ‘in March, the MDP alleged that Adeeb had links with Sri Lankan Parliamentarian, Duminda Silva, who is under the scanner for alleged ties with drug traffickers. He was also implicated in a $6-million corruption scandal in the special audit report of the Maldives Marketing and Public Relations Company (MMPRC)’. 14 The implication of Adeeb on corruption charges had promoted the Yameen government to remove the Auditor General, who exposed the corruption.

Due to support from opposition coalition, the Constitution of Maldives was amended to pave the way for foreign ownership of land (Art 302) for infinite period as long as they met certain criteria, such as: the project has to be ratified by the Parliament and approved by the President; $1billion investment for investment and 70 per cent of the land will have to be reclaimed from the sea. The differences within the MDP regarding party’s support to the government in Parliament surfaced ‘when some of the MPs opposed the new land bill and some supported it’.15 A whip was issued to the MPs to support the change in age limit of the President and Vice President and for the impeachment of Vice President Jameel. These above developments in the opposition camp certainly consolidated the ruling PPM coalition to some extent.

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However, differences also emerged within PPM on some of the constitutional amendments and arrests of leaders. For instance, the former President, Mr. Gayoom had a different view over the imprisonment of PPM MP, Ahmed Nazim and ex-Defence Minister, Mohamed Nazim by the government. The former President opined that ‘services to the PPM by Nazim and his campaign for Yameen’s Presidency should be valued’.16 After a constitutional amendment was passed to allow foreigners to own freehold land, Mr. Gayoom called for a referendum on the issue. Gayoom said that the “previous governments had refrained from selling parts of Maldivian territory to prevent influence over the country’s independence, sovereignty, and resources.”17

Recently, the Vice-President, Mr. Abdulla Adeeb was arrested on treason charges and his alleged involvement in a blast that occurred on a boat carrying the President and his family in September. The expelled Vice President is a second in command of the President in dealing with government affairs and also within the ruling PPM. Many also argue that the arrests were a result of President’s desire to control the party, since the Vice President can occupy the seat of Presidency if a situation arises. Meanwhile, the Federal Bureau of Investigation report had found no evidence of an explosive device aboard a boat carrying the President of the Maldives, which the government denied.

After the blast, the government quickly made a number of arrests, claiming that the Police found explosive devices in parts of Male. Under these circumstances, the declaration of Emergency on 4th November citing security reasons had pushed the country into a democratic uncertainty. Many believe that the real reason behind the move was government’s intention to avoid a massive protest planned by the opposition.

International Concern After the declaration of emergency, a number of countries have expressed concern and criticized the Government of Maldives for its involvement in violating and limiting the human rights of the people. The European countries and Australia issued travel advisory. The United States also urged the government "to restore immediately full constitutional freedom to its citizens by terminating the state of emergency." Amnesty International stated that “the 10 | www.icwa.in

ICWA Issue Brief

declaration of a state of emergency must not be a precursor to a further crackdown on dissent or other human rights violations.” The Sri Lankan government issued a statement that “the impact of emergency on fundamental rights and freedom, the right to dissent is an integral part of democracy functioning and cautioned Maldives that the developments should not escalate into regional instability.”18

The government defended the move by stating that the measures were "pre-emptive and precautionary" and that airports, transport hubs and tourist resorts are all safe as the government did not receive any evidence to suggest otherwise. The Maldives is safe for international visitors,"19 meanwhile, in a set back to the opposition coalition, the MDP partner the JP leader, supported the declaration of emergency by stating that “it was already too late for the President to take such a measure.”20

The pressure from international community and a possibility that the emergency will be used by the opposition MDP to get international sympathy, the Government of Maldives lifted the emergency on 10th November. However, there is an economic angle to it. Maldives’ economy is dependent on tourism. The Ministry of Tourism data reveals that ‘tourist arrivals during October 2015 stood at 105,498, comparatively lower than the arrivals the country witnessed last October (110,331) and 4.4 per cent negative growth was recorded’.21 Since most of the tourist arrivals are from Europe and Asia, which is above 45 per cent, the government could not afford a disturbance in the sector. The data reveal that, political crisis in the country is linked with the growth of economy. For example, after the arrest of Mr. Nasheed, tourist arrivals fluctuated. ‘Tourist arrivals were recorded the highest in the month of February and showed a steep drop in arrivals by the end of April 2015.’22

Switch Over’s in Parliament Many consider that the shifting of loyalties by the parliamentarians is helping the government to pass Laws, without much debate. The ruling Progressive Party of Maldives came to power last year with 33 MPs, but another 10 joined them from other parties within four months. These individuals have not been specifically accused of corruption, but they are among many MPs who have switched parties. Therefore, the composition of the People’s Majlis in 2014 July 11 | www.icwa.in

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stood at, ‘43 MPs for PPM, 23 MPs for MDP, 12 MPs for JP, 5 MPs for Maldivian Development Alliance (MDA), and one MP for Adhaalath Party and one Independent MP’.23 Transparency Maldives report suggested that the ‘MPs switch over mainly due to corruption and fulfil their political ends and there is a need for a law to prevent parliamentarians from doing so’. According to a survey report titled, ‘A Troubled Future for Democracy’, 94 per cent of Maldivians believe that politicians are “ready to lie to get elected. Eighty per cent think that power is concentrated in the hands of too few people.’24

The Role of Judiciary According to news reports and reports of independent bodies, apart from the changes in political loyalties, control over Judiciary also helped the Presidency to consolidate its powers. Resistance to change in the judicial process was evident after an unsuccessful attempt by the first democratic government to bring in judicial reforms. Under Article 141 of the 2008 Constitution, the judicial power of the state is vested in the Supreme Court, the High Court, and other trial courts established by law. The constitution also allotted two year transition period for the then Judicial Service Commission (JSC) to rescreen and reappoint all judges, as many questions were raised regarding the educational qualifications of the judges and their eligibility to continue in posts. Due to differences between the government led by Mr. Nasheed and the Commission, the Commission had reappointed 191 of 197 judges and magistrates, without much regard to Article 285 of the constitution, ‘which calls for re-evaluation of all sitting judges’, by 7 August 2010 deadline.

In later years, the measures implemented to improve the quality of judiciary did not yield much result. For example, according to the JSC report 2014, ‘out of 182 Judges, 96 of them hold diplomas and by the end of 2104, 111 complaints against judges are pending’, an indication of poor performance and lack of ethics’.25

In 2013, the UNHRC report criticized the state of judicial affairs in the country by pointing out that the ‘JSC was politicized and failed to improve the quality of judges according to Article 285 of the Constitution’.26 The government strongly reacted to the report stating that the “engagement between national governments and international actors should not 12 | www.icwa.in

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undermine national jurisdiction and the court system of any country, especially relating to ongoing cases.”27

Even after the introduction of a new constitution in 2008, the public confidence in the institution did not change much. This was evident through a UNDP public perception survey report published in 2014. The report noted that “a total of 71 per cent of the people surveyed prefer to settle disputes outside court, while only 21 per cent prefer to go to court.”28 The reasons given were the ‘delay in proceedings, lack of confidence that the case would be solved fairly and corruption. The ‘Department of Judicial Administration dismissed the reports as unfair’.29

The courts exercised their powers arbitrarily in some instances by reprimanding individuals and institutions, who spoke against the system. For instance, ‘the SC has declared that the rights assessment submitted to the UN by the Human Rights Watchdog as unlawful, and has issued an 11-point guideline barring the independent body from communicating with foreign organizations without government oversight’.30 During May 2015 protests called by the MDP, JP and AP against the government, the criminal court remanded scores of antigovernment protesters for 15 days’ custody. Recently, the country’s Chief Prosecutor was sacked following his refusal to press charges against the sacked Vice-President, Mr. Adeeb in a boat blast case on the basis that the police did not have a strong case.

The problem lies in the fact that, during Gayoom’s rule, he had full control over the judiciary and judges were removed and appointed at the President’s will. The same framework continues under the current Presidential system in a different form. The law allows for the supremacy of the President’s decision in direct or indirect manner over the judiciary. For instance, the President has the power to appoint the JSC and, in turn, can influence the decisions taken in appointing the Chief Justice of the SC and other Justices.

Media Freedom Control over the media is another means of centralizing power. The UN Periodic Review of Human Rights violations in May 2015 noted that there is a threat to journalists in the country. 13 | www.icwa.in

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Maldives fell four ranks in the Reporters without Boarders Press Freedom index for 2015 to 112th place from last year. In April 2015, the government ratified the Public Service Media Act and dissolved the old Maldives Broadcasting Corporation and its five member board. The new law also provides the public media service to run print editions and use social media to spread government information. The government ‘justified the move by stating that the changes were made to the MBC due to the body’s constant coverage of the campaign to free Nasheed’.31

Terrorism Amidst the political turmoil, another issue that has become an international and domestic concern is increasing radicalization of society. According to a 2015 UN report, Maldives is ‘facing a challenge in terms of religious issues posed by different interpretations of religious teachings, the high prevalence of drug abuse and gang violence’.32 In September 2014, some 300 people marched in Male, waving the black flags of the Islamic State. They chanted slogans against democracy and held banners that read "Shariah is the only solution”.33 In an ISIS video released on 31 August 2015 on social media, three masked men threatened to kill the President of the Maldives, Abdulla Yameen and unleash a terrorist campaign on the island. The video also demanded the release of opposition AP leader, Sheikh Imran Abdulla, who was arrested in May this year following anti-government protests. Even though the video’s authenticity remains unconfirmed, many argue that the government used this instance as a pretext to impose emergency in Maldives.

In October 2015, the Parliament adopted a new Anti Terror legislation. Some of the important features are: 

It gives the government wide powers, including the ability to install cameras in the homes of people suspected of sympathizing with the Islamic State group and to declare any group a terrorist organization.



It gives wide ranging powers to the Police, such as searching the person and property along with their communication means.

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

The MoniCon warrant, that is “monitoring” and “control power”, given to courts on alleged terrorism, many alleged, will amount to the violation of fundamental rights, as this act limits the individual liberty before the person is found guilty.



The Bill proposes a jail term of between 17 and 20 years for joining a foreign war, and 10 to 15 years for anyone, who attempts to leave the Maldives with that intent.

The government claimed that the Anti Terror Law will enable tough action against terror, but the opposition fears that the law can be used against any form of opposition to the government. According to some, the main flaw in the law was that the “definition of what constitutes terror is left with the President, along with the power to include or exclude the groups from state’s terror list.”34 Another worry for the opposition was that the law can be used against any individual expressing a different view from the official version of events and a speech can be termed as pro-terrorism.

According to the Home Minister, Umar Naseer, the new law will enable the police to arrest suspects, which was not the case in the past. He said that in the past, the government had details on seven Maldivian ISIS fighters, while another ten people were stopped in Sri Lanka and Malaysia on suspicion of trying to get to Syria to join the group. However, ‘they were not arrested because there was no legal provision.’35 Maldives' Foreign Minister also defended the law on grounds that there are “about 100 suspected Maldivian IS sympathizers, who are known to have travelled abroad and the new anti-terror law is an important step in stopping the problem.”36 The opposition MDP had put the figure at about 200.

The MDP recommendation to ‘define activities conducted under the mandate of respective political parties and clubs and associations as not terrorism along with advocacy and action by wronged parties and individuals to get their grievances addressed and aptly compensated was ignored’.37 The call by the state Human rights Watchdog to review the law was also ignored.

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Reasons for increasing radicalization Endemic poverty and deprivation in some communities according to some reports are reasons behind increasing radicalization. ‘Some of those travelling to Syria came from poor fishing communities on outlying islands; others came from the capital, which features a mix of radical preaching, organised crime and social deprivation’.38

Increasing radicalization is also attributed to Gang culture in Maldives. According to UN Rapid Situation Assessment report, ‘there are reportedly between 20 and 30 different gangs operating in Malé alone, with 50 to 400 members in each group and gang violence in Maldives is becoming “increasingly commonplace and the nature of violence more brutal” as new types of drugs and weapons are used’.39 The study also found that an overwhelming majority (92%) of drug users were below 30 years.

In recent years, a string of attacks on bloggers and attacks on moderate clerics and parliamentarians was attributed to gangs. In ‘August, Rilwan Ahmed Abdulla, a journalist and blogger, was abducted and has not been seen since’.40 Reports suggest that gangs are providing finance and influencing youth to join the IS. For example, ‘more than a dozen members of the Kuda Henveiru gang are reported to have left for Syria’. There are news reports that some of the of the gangs operating in Maldives have links with political parties or leaders is worrisome, as it provides ground for the continuation of gang culture, which, in turn, might increases the radicalization of youth.

Easy funds available for terrorist and gang related activities may be a reason for increasing radicalization in society. The US Government Country Report on Terrorism 2014 mentions that the lack of monitoring on money laundering by the government is helping in raising funds for terrorist groups. Maldives is a member of the Asia/Pacific Group on Money Laundering. The Maldivian authorities believe that ‘funds are currently being raised in Maldives to support terrorism abroad; however, they do not have reliable information regarding the amounts involved. Financial institutions other than banks and intermediaries in the securities sector, however, are not subject to current anti-money laundering/countering the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) obligations. Insurance companies and intermediaries, 16 | www.icwa.in

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finance companies, money remittance service providers, foreign exchange businesses and credit card companies, therefore, operate outside the AML/CFT framework’. 41

The Maldivian government efforts to counter terrorism, such as adopting approaches, such as active intervention in religious life and by building an Islamic University in the capital city of Male with focus on comparative religion have to be integrated with economic development that focuses on diversification of economic opportunities needed for engaging youth in a productive way. This brings in the question of the status of economy in the island.

Economy Various sectors’ contribution to the GDP in ‘2013 shows that tourism sector’s contribution is high (27%) when compared with other sectors, such as Transport and Communication (19%); Construction, Manufacturing, Electricity and Water, which together contributed 17 per cent;. Government Administration (11%) and the share of Fisheries and Agriculture was three per cent. Other Services contributed 23 per cent to the GDP, which include Real Estate, Wholesale and Retail Trade, Education, Health, Financial Services, Business Services and Social Services’.42 Tourism accounts for around 17per cent of employment. According to ADB, in 2010, 15 per cent of population is poor and the unemployment rate is at 28 per cent and extensive use of expatriate workers is leading to high unemployment rate among the younger labour force’.43 The economy is mostly dependent on the Service sector and its contribution to the GDP was above 70 per cent during 2011-2014.

According to World Bank, ‘expenditure trends during 2009-2013 reveal widening gap between revenues and expenditures, financed by unsustainable levels of public debt. In 2013, total expenditures were above 42 per cent of the GDP, while total revenue collection amounted to 32.8 per cent of the GDP. The increase in public spending has been driven by higher-than-budgeted expenditures on the wage bill (15.8 per cent of GDP), universal subsidies (including food and electricity subsidies), and social welfare payments (linked to the universal health insurance scheme)’.44 However, these measures helped in achieving the MDGs, such as eradicating extreme poverty and hunger, progress in social sectors, such as health and education by adopting policies, such as “no child left behind” and “universal health 17 | www.icwa.in

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care”.45 Therefore, the government cannot afford to cut the expenditure in the social sector as it might lead to dissent against the ruling coalition. According to WB, an ‘estimated 32 per cent of youth aged 20-24 years are neither participating in education nor working. The youth constitute over 60 per cent of Maldives population. Rising youth unemployment is contributing to other social ills, such as drug abuse and gang-related violence. Therefore, the government faces a tough challenge of generating employment through diversifying investments in sectors other than tourism.

In 2014, the government adopted the SEZ Act and in 2015, the Land Amendment Bill was passed, which the government claim will attract foreign investment. The opposition alleged that the mega development projects that the government planned through SEZs had not materialized. During the investor forum in Singapore in April last year, many companies, such as the US investment company, Blackstone, Singapore based HPL Hotels and Resorts, China Machinery Engineering Cooperation (CMEC), the Carlson Group of Companies, Pan Pacific Hotels and Resorts, United Bunkering and Trading Group and Singapore Enterprise have expressed their interests to invest in Maldives. Even though a certain project by a foreign company will have to be ratified by the Parliament before the President’s approval, there are apprehensions that the law can be used for strategic purposes. These apprehensions are based on the fact that given the volatile political situation in the country and issue based switch-over of parliamentarians in the Parliament during voting may lead to the approval of projects with strategic content.

Very recently, Maldives passed a state budget worth $1.7 billion for 2016. This amount is MVR 3.1 billion more than this year. Increasing debt levels are worrisome, and the ‘MDP alleged that the debt left by their government was MVR 9 billion, whereas the debt from President Yameen was so far MVR 38 billion and is projected to reach MVR 48 billion next year.’46 According to the International Monitory Fund (IMF), “Maldives public debt problem is largely a domestic one—total public and publicly guaranteed debt is expected to have reached 74.6 per cent of GDP in 2014 while public external debt is 27.7 per cent of GDP (mainly with multilateral and bilateral creditors).”47

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Possibility of Sanctions against the Government Amidst the challenges mentioned above, in November, the counsel for the former President Mohammed Nasheed submitted a list of individuals responsible for serious human rights violations in Maldives to the UK Foreign and Commonwealth office. The submission hopes for targeted action against those individuals, such as travel bans and asset freeze. The move comes after the government’s reluctance to release Mr. Nasheed even after a UN report mentioned that the arrest was arbitrary and illegal in October. The Government of Maldives responded by stating that “such a move is unwarranted and clearly amounts to a political move that is aimed to unduly influence a legal process.”48

A resolution was adopted by the EU parliament in December 2015 calling for member countries of the European Union to freeze foreign assets of certain political entities and prominent pro-government business tycoons of the Maldives. Responding to this development on 17th December 2015, Maldives foreign ministry said that, the Resolution contains a number of inaccuracies, misrepresentations, and baseless allegations.

The Government of Maldives has hired Washington’s most prominent lobbyist firm, Podesta Group, for a sum of US$300,000 to advocate on its behalf amidst calls for targeted sanctions on government officials for human rights violations. ‘Hamed Sareer, the Permanent Representative of Maldives to the UN, signed the agreement on behalf of Maldives. The contract runs from September 8, 2015 through March 7, 2016’.49

Assessment and Plausible Scenarios Given the above mentioned internal scenario in Maldives, four scenarios may unfold in the future. 

The country may move towards greater centralization of power at the hands of President. The independent institutions are vulnerable and the atmosphere is not conducive for making independent decisions as the Majlis can be used to change the structure of the institutions and remove the heads of institutions not complying with the President’s orders.

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

Increasing radicalization and gang culture may pose a threat to the security of Maldives neighbours if appropriate measures were not taken to tackle the menace. Even though the country progressed on indicators of social development, increasing debt and a need for investments to create jobs for the younger generation may lead to allowing foreign powers into the economy and strategic sphere.



The country may revert to authoritarian framework by curbing political dissent at all levels of governance. There is a view that Maldives’ new Anti Terrorism Law ‘is based on the definition of terrorism advocated by the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), which may be a problem given the political atmosphere in Maldives. While the UN and Western definitions carefully focus on the use or threat of violence with intent to cause widespread fear or influence government policy, the OIC’s definition includes acts that may pose a threat to stability, territorial integrity and sovereignty, irrespective of the motives behind those acts.’50



There is a possibility of international sanctions, if the present government continuous to ignore concerns of the international community.

India’s Response to Internal developments and Implications for India Since 2008, India maintained a cautious approach towards its response to the internal developments. This approach is based on India’s policy of non intervention in internal affairs of a country. In the past, ‘India’s intervention has been limited to sending envoys to conduct talks with both sides of the bitterly divided Maldivian polity’. For example, ‘when Mr. Nasheed took refuge in the Indian embassy for nearly two weeks in 2012 to evade arrest, a peace deal was brokered by Indian officials.’51 This was in contrast to a position taken by India in 1988, i. e., to send military forces to stave off a coup attempt against former authoritarian President, Maumoon Abdul Gayoom. After the arrest of Mr. Nasheed, India responded by stating that it ‘was concerned over developments’ and the Prime Minister of India even cancelled his visit to the country in March as political atmosphere was not conducive. After the declaration of emergency, India responded by saying that ‘it is closely monitoring the situation’. During the recent Indian PM’s visit to UK, the Joint Statement underscored the importance of ‘stable and inclusive democracy and judicial independence’.52

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These responses to recent internal political developments in Maldives might have emanated from a few facts and expectations: 

May be, there is an expectation that the democratization process in Maldives that was initiated in 2008 will continue if given the time and space to evolve.



Keen interests in expanding bilateral relations to cover various sectors including defence and security. During the visit of India’s External Affairs Minister to Maldives in October last year a Joint Commission meeting took place after a gap of over 15 years. The Commission meeting focused on defence and security cooperation. “IndiaMaldives defence cooperation includes, inter-alia, the construction of a Composite Training Centre for the Maldivian National Defence Forces, joint patrolling, training programmes for MNDF officers in India, medical camps, joint exercises, etc.”53



India’s caution in taking a strong position against the Government of Maldives might also have been influenced by the fact that the bilateral partnership is important for maintaining peace and security in the Indian Ocean Region and to counter the influence of external powers.



A possible concern that international intervention in any form, whether it is sanctions or direct intervention, in the neighbourhood may affect India’s security and economic interests. Therefore, engagement with current dispensation is the best possible option.

However, continuing internal political crisis and possible scenarios outlined above will have an impact on India-Maldives relations due to spill over effect, based on the possible scenarios mentioned above, Maldives’ foreign policy position that “the global security cannot be ensured if some countries have a license to influence the domestic affairs of the other” and Maldives’ foreign policy’s aim ‘to make the country economically resilient despite domestic and international pressures’ is contradictory.54 It is mainly because in an interconnected world, domestic political and economic stability in a country is a must for ensuring global and regional security. This aspect is lacking in Maldives in the present context. Therefore, India will have to ensure engagement with all the political players in Maldives to ensure stable and inclusive democracy.

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Conclusion Number of challenges the Maldives is facing currently, can only be addressed best domestically, by political parties by adopting consensus policies. Therefore, there is a need for a dialogue between all the political actors with a sense of reconciliation. between all the political parties. *** *Dr. M. Samatha, Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi. The Views expressed are that of the Researcher and not of the Council. Endnotes: Maidhu News, 31 December 2010, http://www.miadhu.com/2010/12/local-news/flashback-2010/. Reports of the Commonwealth Observer Group, 19th November 2013, http://thecommonwealth.org/sites/default/files/pressrelease/documents/Maldives%20Presidential%20Election%202013%20Commonwealth%20Observer%20Group%20Repor t.pdf. 3 “Corruption, Religious Freedom, and Judiciary Biggest Human Rights Problems in Maldives, Says US Report,” March 1 2014, http://minivannewsarchive.com/politics/corruption-religious-freedom-and-judiciary-biggest-human-rights-problems-inmaldives-say-us-report-78705. 4 “Maldives: Arbitrary Removal of Supreme Court Judges Deeply Concerning, UN Expert Warns,” 22 December 2014, http://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=15446&LangID=E. 5 “National Report Submitted in Accordance with Paragraph 5 of the Annex to Human Rights Council Resolution 16/21,” Human Rights Council Working Group on the Universal Periodic Review Twenty-second Session, 4–15 May 2015, http://daccess-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/G15/079/28/PDF/G1507928.pdf?OpenElement. p. 2. 6 Special Economic Zones Act 1, Act Number: 24/2014, (A Translation), http://investmaldives.org/investmaldives/wpcontent/uploads/2014/09/SEZ-Act-Translation.pdf. 7 “Maldives Govt Strips Nasheed of His Party Membership,” 30 March 2015, http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2015-03-30/news/60644090_1_mohamed-nasheed-mdp-mps-minivan-news. 8 Ministry of FA, Maldives, “Remarks by the FM Dunya at the Briefing to the Diplomatic Corps in Sri Lanka,” Oct 29 2015, 29th October 2015, Colombo, foreign.gov.mv/v2/en/media-centre/news/article/1488. 9 “Maldives: Gasim’s Jumhooree Party Thrown out from the Ruling Coalition,” 2 June 2014, http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/node/1532. 10 http://minivannewsarchive.com/politics/jp-council-officially-declares-exit-from-progressive-coalition-92353. 11 “President Yameen should Apologise for Thumbs Down Gesture, Says MDP Chairperson,” 2 March 2015, minivan.com/politics/title-93063. 12 Naish Ahmed, “Draconian Anti-terrorism Bill Passed into Law,” 27th October 2015, http://maldivesindependent.com/politics/draconian-anti-terrorism-bill-passed-into-law-118990. 13 “government Must deliver on Its Side of Talks Bargain-MDP”, 24th July 2015, mdp.org.mv/archives/70453 14 “Abdulla Yameen’s Man has Links with Drug Cartel: Opposition,” 25 March 2015, http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2015-03-25/news/60475295_1_mohamed-nazim-president-abdulla-yameenmaldivian-democratic-party. 15 “Maldives Fast-tracks Bill to Allow for Foreign Land Ownership, India Highly Concerned,” 22 July 2015, http://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/Maldives-Fast-tracks-bill-to-Allow-for-Foreign-Land-Ownership-India-HighlyConcerned/2015/07/22/article2932975.ece. 16 “Opposition Claim of Leadership Rift Angers Gayoom,” 13 April 2015, minivannewsarchive.com/politics/ Opposition -Claim of- Leadership –Rift- Angers- Gayoom-96205. 17 “Gayoom’s Call for Referendum on Foreign Freeholds Dismissed,” 23 July 2015, http://maldivesindependent.com/politics/gayooms-call-for-referendum-on-foreign-freeholds-dismissed-101267. 18 Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Government of Sri Lanka, 10 th November 2015. 19 “Government of Maldives Lifts State of Emergency with Immediate Effect, 10 November 2015, http://foreign.gov.mv/v2/en/media-center/news/article/1507. 20 “Maldives Parliament Backs Month-long Emergency,” 5th November 2015, http://www.haveeru.com.mv/news/63690. 1 2

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ICWA Issue Brief Ministry of Tourism, Maldives, file:///C:/Users/dell/Downloads/October%202015.pdf. Ministry of Tourism, A Brief Analysis on Tourism Indicators First Quarter 2015, vol. 4, Issue 20, 2015, file:///C:/Users/dell/Downloads/Quarterly%20Tourism%20Update%E2%80%93%20First%20Quarter%202015.pdf. 23 “Speaker Announces Change in Party Composition, 15th July 2014, http://www.majlis.gov.mv/en/2014/07/15/speakerannounces-change-in-party-composition/. 24 “Transparency Maldives’ 2015 Maldives Democracy Survey Points to a Troubled Future for Democracy in the Maldives,” Press Release 20 October 2015, http://transparency.mv/files/media/8b9ed87e579a58703e0bcd09181b0064.pdf. 25 Hameed Shaffa, “Judges Integrity and Ethics in Question Five Years after Life Appointment,” 4th August 2015, maldivesindependent.com/feature-comment/ Judges- Integrity -and –ethics- in- question –five- years –after- life – appointment-116114. 26 UN General Assembly, Human Rights Council, Report of the Special Rapporteur on the Independence of Judges and Lawyers, Gabriela Knaul, 21 May 2013, http://www.ohchr.org/Documents/HRBodies/HRCouncil/RegularSession/Session23/A-HRC-23-43-Add3_en.pdf 27 “‘International Actors should not Undermine Governments:’ Maldives Responds to UN Special Rapporteur,” 2 June 2013, http://minivannewsarchive.com/politics/international-actors-should-not-undermine-governments-maldives-responds-toun-special-rapporteur-58897#sthash.3eAi8bll.dpbs. 28 Legal and Justice Sector Baseline Study 2014, UNDP, http://agoffice.gov.mv/v4/wpcontent/uploads/2015/08/legal_and_justice_sector_baseline_study_WEB_FINAL_1.pdf. 29 “Judiciary Hits Back at Criticism in UNDP Report,” 30 Aug 2015, http://maldivesindependent.com/politics/judiciary-hitsback-at-criticism-in-undp-report-116880. 30 “Supreme Court Renders Human Rights Watchdog Toothless, 16 June 2015, http://minivannewsarchive.com/politics/supreme-court-renders-human-rights-watchdog-toothless99848#sthash.TcLqYbPX.dpbs. 31 “Government Takes Control of State Media,” 29th April 2015, minivannewsarchive.com/politics/ Government -Takes Control of- State- Media-97142. 32 “National Report Submitted in Accordance with Paragraph 5 of the Annex to Human Rights Council Resolution 16/21,” Human Rights Council Working Group on the Universal Periodic Review Twenty-second Session, 4–15 May 2015, http://daccess-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/G15/079/28/PDF/G1507928.pdf?OpenElement. 33 “The Islamic State has Supporters in Paradise,” https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2014/09/10/the-islamic-state-has-supporters-in-paradise/. 34 Ibrahim Muizzu, “Maldives New Anti Terror Law: A Tool to Quell Opposition?” 29 th October 2015, www. Haveeru.com.mv/features/63485. 35 “Maldives Opposition Critical of 'Draconian' Anti-Islamic State Law,” 29th October 2015, http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/29/maldives-opposition-critical-of-draconian-anti-terror-law. 36 Francis Krishna, “Maldives Law Allows Monitoring of Suspected IS Sympathizers,” 29th Oct 2015, http://bigstory.ap.org/article/0bcfb735875543b29c82ecc062be0bca/new-law-maldives-allows-monitoring-sympathizers. 37 Ibid. 38 Carty Peter, “Isis in Paradise: Maldives Latest Recruiting Ground for Islamic State,” 31st August 2015, http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/isis-paradise-maldives-latest-recruiting-ground-islamic-state-1517853. 39 “National Report Submitted in Accordance with Paragraph 5 of the Annex to Human Rights Council Resolution 16/21,” Human Rights Council Working Group on the Universal Periodic Review Twenty-second Session, 4–15 May 2015, http://daccess-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/G15/079/28/PDF/G1507928.pdf?OpenElement, p. 20. 40 Burke Jason, “Paradise Jihadis: Maldives Sees Surge in Young Muslims Leaving for Syria,” 26th Feb 2015”, http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/feb/26/paradise-jihadis-maldives-islamic-extremism-syria. 41 Chapter 2, Country Reports: South and Central Asia Overview, BUREAU OF COUNTERTERRORISM Country Reports on Terrorism 2014, Report http://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/crt/2014/239408.htm. 42 Ministry of Tourism, Tourism Year Book, 2014, p. 20, http://www.tourism.gov.mv/downloads/2014dec/tourism%20year%20book%202014.pdf. 43 Maldives Overcoming the Challenges of a Small Island State, Country Diagnostic Study, ADB 2015, http://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/172704/maldives-overcoming-challenges-small-island-state.pdf. 44 “Maldives Country Snap Shot,” The World Bank 2014, March 2014, https://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/document/SAR/maldives-country-snapshot-spring-2014.pdf. 45 “National Report Submitted in Accordance with Paragraph 5 of the Annex to Human Rights Council Resolution 16/21,” Human Rights Council Working Group on the Universal Periodic Review Twenty-second Session, 4–15 May 2015, http://daccess-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/G15/079/28/PDF/G1507928.pdf?OpenElement, p. 2. 46 “Maldives Looks to Allot Special Foreign Aid Account,” 25th November 2015, www.haveeru.com.mv/news/64278. 47 IMF, Maldives Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation— Debt Sustainability Analysis, 27 January 2015, https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/dsa/pdf/2015/dsacr1568.pdf. 48 “‘Calls for Sanctions against Maldives Aims at Influencing the Legal Process:’ Says Government of Maldives,” 28 November 2015, http://foreign.gov.mv/v2/en/media-center/news/article/1533 49 Rashhed Zaheena, “Maldives Hires US Lobbyist Podesta Group for US$300,000,” 27 September 2015, http://maldivesindependent.com/politics/maldives-hires-us-lobbyist-podesta-group-for-us300000-117660. 50 Arora Vishal, “Maldives ‘Islamic’ Anti-Terror Bill Targets Dissidents,” 17th July 2015 http://thediplomat.com/2015/07/maldives-islamic-anti-terror-bill-targets-dissidents/. 21 22

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ICWA Issue Brief Haider Suhasini, “Nasheed Held in Male under Anti-terror Law,” 22 February 2015, http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/maldives-expresident-mohamed-nasheed-arrested-on-terrorcharges/article6922181.ece. 52 Foreign and Commonwealth Office, UK, “Joint Statement on the United Kingdom-India Summit 2015,” 12 November 2015, https://www.gov.uk/governmnt/news/ Joint- Statement -on -the -United Kingdom-India Summit- 2015. 53 HCI Maldives, Visit of External Affairs Minister Smt. Sushma Swaraj to Maldives, 11 October 2011, http://www.hci.gov.in/male/?4410?001. 54 Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Maldives, “Function to Celebrate Two-year Foreign Policy Achievement and 50 Years of Maldives Independence and Membership at the UN,” 2nd December 2015, http://foreign.gov.mv/v2/en/mediacenter/news/article/1539. 51

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