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LTE CHIP MARKET TRENDS Market Analysis of LTE baseband, RF and PA chip markets for cellphones and tablets

Author: Carter L. Horney Editor & Contributor: Will Strauss

Report No. 1420 May, 2014

About the Author Carter L. Horney, a recognized authority on microprocessor and DSP implementation in telecommunications, is the author of this report. Mr. Horney is an independent consultant and Forward Concepts Associate specializing in semiconductor product strategy and market planning. He was formerly Division Planner for Rockwell International’s Digital Communications Division and earlier Strategic Marketing manager for Rockwell’s Semiconductor Products Division. Mr. Horney was responsible for the product planning, which led Rockwell (now Conexant Systems) to dominate the worldwide FAX and highspeed modem chip market. He was appointed a Rockwell Engineering Fellow and received many commendations for outstanding achievement in Computer Architecture, Engineering, Technical Marketing, Product Planning and Customer Relations. Mr. Horney has a B.S. in Mathematics and Physics and an M.S. in Mathematics from Western Illinois University. About the Editor Will Strauss, President of Forward Concepts, is the editor and significant contributor for this report. Mr. Strauss is internationally recognized as the leading authority on markets driven by digital signal processing (DSP), and wireless is the largest market for DSP technology.

Copyright © 2014 by Carter L. Horney for the exclusive use of Forward Concepts Company. All rights, including that of translation into other languages are specifically reserved. No part of the this publication may be reproduced in any form, stored in a retrieval systems or transmitted by any method or means, electrically, mechanically, photographic or otherwise, without the express permission of Carter L. Horney, (d\b\a Teletronix) P.O Box 487 San Clemente, California 92674. (Tel 949-492-8885: Fax: 949361-8885). Personal E-mail: [email protected]

FORWARD CONCEPTS and the stylized FC Logo are registered trademarks of Forward Concepts Co. ® Reg. U.S. Patent & Trademark Office.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

I.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................... 1

A.

Overview ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 1

II.

MOBILE MARKET .................................................................................................................... 7

A.

Overview ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 7

B. 1. 2. 3. 4.

5. 6. 7. 8. C.

Smartphones .................................................................................................................................................................................... 7 Global Distribution of Smartphones by Region ................................................................................................................................ 10 Top 30 Smartphone Market Share Leaders 2012-2013 ............................................................................................................... 12 LTE Smartphone Market Leaders ........................................................................................................................................................... 14 Top Smartphone Supplier Profiles ......................................................................................................................................................... 15 a) Apple .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 16 b) Samsung........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 17 c) LG ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 17 d) Sony ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 17 e) Huawei Devices ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 18 f) ZTE Mobile Devices ................................................................................................................................................................................. 18 g) Lenovo ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 19 h) Nokia .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 19 i) Xiaomi ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 19 j) TCL Communications Technology Holdings................................................................................................................................. 20 Smartphone Five Year Forecast by Geographical Region ............................................................................................................ 20 Smartphone Five Year Forecast by Classification ........................................................................................................................... 21 Smartphone Five Year Forecast by Operating System Type ...................................................................................................... 21 Smartphone Baseband Market Share Supplier Summary ........................................................................................................... 23

Tablets .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 25 Tablet Quarterly and YOY Market Share from 2012-2013.......................................................................................................... 25 Tablet Shipments by Operating Systems ............................................................................................................................................. 27 Top 10 Tablet Suppliers .............................................................................................................................................................................. 27 a) Apple .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 27 b) Samsung Electronics ............................................................................................................................................................................... 27 c) ASUS ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 28 d) Amazon ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 28 e) Acer ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 28 f) Lenovo ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 28 g) Hewlett Packard ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 29 h) Toshiba .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 29 i) Windows 8 Suppliers .............................................................................................................................................................................. 30 j) Microsoft RT ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 30 k) ZTE .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 30 4. Five-Year Media Tablet Forecast ............................................................................................................................................................ 31 5. Embedded Tablet Quarterly Shipments .............................................................................................................................................. 31 1. 2. 3.

D. 1. 2. 3. 4.

Modem Hotspots and USB Modem Sticks ............................................................................................................................. 33 LTE and LTE VoLTE Hotspot Routers ................................................................................................................................................... 34 USB Modem Sticks ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 34 4G Sticks, Hotspots, Tablet/Notebook Modem Forecast .............................................................................................................. 35 The Market & Supplier Profiles ............................................................................................................................................................... 36

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TABLE OF CONTENTS a) b) c) d) e) f) g)

III. A.

Huawei Device Division (Cat 5 Mobile HotSpot) ........................................................................................................................ 36 Netgear (3G/4G Cat4 40 MHz Mobile Hotspot) .......................................................................................................................... 37 Novatel Wireless (MIFI Home with VoLTE) ................................................................................................................................. 37 Sierra Wireless (Express Cards) ........................................................................................................................................................ 38 Samsung Electronics (3g/4G Mobile Hotspot) ............................................................................................................................ 38 ZTE Mobile ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 38 Franklin Wireless ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 38

LTE TECHNOLOGY TRENDS .................................................................................................... 40

Overview .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 40 1. LTE Voice Technology Transition........................................................................................................................................................... 41 2. VoLTE Operator Movement ...................................................................................................................................................................... 42 3. Carrier Aggregation and Early Operator Usage................................................................................................................................ 43 4. Global LTE Voice Support........................................................................................................................................................................... 44 5. Full IMS VoLTE Movement ........................................................................................................................................................................ 45 6. LTE Multicast Broadband (eMBMS) ...................................................................................................................................................... 46 7. LTE Advanced in Unlicensed Spectrum ............................................................................................................................................... 48 8. LTE Direct.......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 48 9. Small Cell Networks ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 49 10. LTE Advanced Feature Overview ...................................................................................................................................................... 50 11. LTE In Automotive ................................................................................................................................................................................... 52 12. 5G? ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 53

IV. A. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

LTE FIVE YEAR FORECASTS..................................................................................................... 54 Overview .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 54 LTE Forecast by Global Regions .............................................................................................................................................................. 54 TD-LTE Five-Year Forecast by Frequency Band .............................................................................................................................. 55 LTE & 3G/LTE Baseband Five-Year Forecast .................................................................................................................................... 57 Radio Transceiver Forecast ....................................................................................................................................................................... 59 Mobile Power Amplifier Five Year Forecast ...................................................................................................................................... 61

V. LTE FREQUENCY BANDS............................................................................................................ 63 A.

Overview .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 63

B.

TDD LTE Bands .............................................................................................................................................................................. 65

C.

LTE Global Operator Status and Deployment Bands ....................................................................................................... 65

D.

LTE FDD Frequency Bands and Channel Bandwidths ..................................................................................................... 72

E.

SDL Bands for LTE ........................................................................................................................................................................ 73

VI. A.

LTE COMMUNICATIONS PROCESSOR SUPPLIER PROFILES ...................................................... 74 Overview .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 74

B. 1.

LTE Baseband Supplier Market Shares ................................................................................................................................ 76 LTE Cat 4/3G Com-Processor Market Share Leaders .................................................................................................................... 76

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TABLE OF CONTENTS C.

LTE Communication Processor Profiles ............................................................................................................................... 78 1. Broadcom (MP5232 CA9/GSX543, LTE/DC-HSPA-Processor) ................................................................................................. 78 2. Broadcom (MP6530 DualA15/DualA7-SGX544 LTE-Cat4/3G Processor) .......................................................................... 79 3. Broadcom (M320 2x Cortex CA9+HSPA+/LTE) ............................................................................................................................... 79 4. Leadcore Technology LC1810 (CortexA9+ Mali400 LTE/TD-SCDMA-processor) ........................................................... 80 5. MediaTek MT6595 (4xA17+4xA7, PVR6200 GFPU, LTE) ........................................................................................................... 80 6. Marvell (PXA1088L 1.2GHz 4x Cortex A7, GPU, R7 FD/TD HSPA+/ Cat 4 LTE.................................................................. 81 7. Marvell (PXA1928 1.5GHz 64-bit Quad A53/GC5000 5-mode LTE) ...................................................................................... 81 8. Nvidia (Tegra 4i 4x CA9-R4, HD1080P, HSPA+/TD-HSPA/ LTE)............................................................................................. 82 9. Qualcomm (64-bit S410 4x A53, LTE Cat 3) ...................................................................................................................................... 83 10. Qualcomm (64bit MSM615/610 Octa/Quad A53 LTE Cat4) ................................................................................................ 83 11. Qualcomm (MSM8960T 1.7GHz 2x K200 1080P DC-HSPA+/SVDO Processor) .......................................................... 84 12. Qualcomm (MSM8974 2.3GHz 4XK400, 2160P R9 HSPA+/TD-HSPA/1xEVDO) ........................................................ 84 13. Spreadtrum (SC9620 TD-SCDMA/TD-LTE).................................................................................................................................. 85

VII. A. 1. B.

Overview .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 86 Thin Baseband Market Share Leaders .................................................................................................................................................. 87

Supplier Profiles ........................................................................................................................................................................... 89 1. Altair Semiconductor Ltd. .......................................................................................................................................................................... 89 2. Huawei-HiSilicon (LTE/3G Rel.9 baseband chip) ........................................................................................................................... 90 3. Innofidei (LTE & LTE/TD-SCDMA Modems) ..................................................................................................................................... 90 4. Intel Mobile Communications (FD-LTE RF and 3G/LTE basebands) ..................................................................................... 91 5. GCT Semiconductor (GDM7240 LTE Cat3 Baseband/Transceiver) ........................................................................................ 93 6. Marvell (PXA1802 LTE/3G + TD-SCDMA thin modem) ............................................................................................................... 93 7. MediaTek (MT6590 TD-LTE /TD-SCDMA/WCDMA/GSM/EDGE) .......................................................................................... 94 8. NVIDIA (Cat3/4 LTE & 21 Mbps HSPA+ platform) ......................................................................................................................... 94 9. Qualcomm (MDM 9x25 LTE/ EVDO or MC-HSPA+ modem) ...................................................................................................... 95 10. Qualcomm MDM9x35 20nm Cat 6 LTE/3G/2G Thin Modem ............................................................................................... 96 11. Samsung (CMC221 LTE Baseband only) ........................................................................................................................................ 97 12. Sequans Communications (LTE Baseband/RF modem) ......................................................................................................... 97 13. Spreadtrum (LTE/TD-SCDMA/GSM baseband platform) ...................................................................................................... 98 14. Ericsson (M7400 LTE 4/3G modem – DBB, ABB and RF) ...................................................................................................... 99

VIII. A.

LTE THIN MODEM BASEBAND SUPPLIER PROFILES................................................................. 86

LTE RF TRANSCEIVER CHIP SUPPLIERS ............................................................................ 101

Overview ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 101 1. Altair Semiconductor (1.9-2.7 GHz CMOS Transceiver) ............................................................................................................. 101 2. Broadcom (BCM2095 LTE Cat4 / HSPA+/ GSM/ EDGE) ............................................................................................................ 102 3. GCT Semiconductor (R8 FDD Multiband +700 MHz) .................................................................................................................. 102 4. Intel (XMM7160 LTE/3G R9 HSPA Multiband Transceiver) .................................................................................................... 103 5. Intel (XMM7260 R10 LTE/3G R9 DCHSPA/TD-SCDMA Transceiver ................................................................................... 103 6. Intel (XMM7260 LTE Cat 6-Advanced 30 bands) .......................................................................................................................... 104 7. NVIDIA (FDD LTE/HSPA+ Transceiver) ............................................................................................................................................ 104 8. Qualcomm (LTE/3G/2G 6 Mode Cat 6 Transceivers).................................................................................................................. 104 9. Silicon Motion (FD LTE Cat3 and LTE/CDMA Cat3 Transceiver) ........................................................................................... 106 10. Spreadtrum Communications (4G TD LTE/3G TD-SCDMA/WEDGE) ............................................................................ 107 11. ST-Ericsson (LTE 4/HSPA+ Transceiver) .................................................................................................................................... 107

IX.

LTE PA SUPPLIER PROFILES .................................................................................................. 108

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TABLE OF CONTENTS A. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9.

Overview ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 108 Anadigics (FDD 1, 2, 7, 8, 20, 3/4/9/10, 5/6/18/19, 12/17, 13/14; TDD 38, 40) ......................................................... 108 Mitsubishi Electric (Six LTE-Compliant Power Amplifiers) ..................................................................................................... 109 Peregrine Semiconductor (RF CMOS SOI PA/Switch) ................................................................................................................. 109 Qualcomm (CMOS SOI 3-chip tuner/envelope tracker/ PA/SW) .......................................................................................... 110 Skyworks (FDD 1, 4/9, 5/6, 7, 8, 9, 13/14, 12/17 and TDD 38/40) ..................................................................................... 111 Nujira (Envelope Tracking Chip) .......................................................................................................................................................... 111 Qualcomm (QFE1100 RF/Envelope Tracking PA.) ....................................................................................................................... 112 RFMD (LTE Single bands 3, 4,7,11,13,17,20 and 21) ................................................................................................................... 113 TriQuint Semiconductor (band 13, 17 of the USA 700 MHz) ................................................................................................... 114

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TABLE OF CONTENTS FIGURES Figure 1 Cellular Handset & Tablet Component Markets by Type: 2013 ................................................ 1 Figure 2 External LTE 4G, 3G/4G Modems Sold 2013........................................................................... 2 Figure 3 2G/3G and 3G/4G Baseband Sales by Type: 2013 .................................................................. 3 Figure 4 Digital Baseband Processor Forecast Summary ...................................................................... 4 Figure 5 Revenue of RF Transceivers, Power Amplifiers and Analog Baseband/PMUs. ........................ 5 Figure 6 Analog BB, PUM & Standalone RF Summary Forecast: '12-'18 ............................................... 5 Figure 7 Smartphone Growth Patterns by Type: '12-'18 ......................................................................... 8 Figure 8 Smartphone Shipments by Geographical Region: '13 ............................................................ 10 Figure 9 Non-Smart Handset Shipments by Geographical Region: '13 ................................................ 11 Figure 10 LTE Smartphone Shipments by Geographical Region: '13 ................................................... 11 Figure 11 Smartphone Market Shares by OS: 2013 ............................................................................. 22 Figure 12 Smartphone Market Shares by OS: 2018 ............................................................................. 22 Figure 13 Smartphone Baseband Market Shares (2G, 3G & 3G/4G) ................................................... 23 Figure 14 3G, 3G/4G Thin Baseband Vendor Market Shares for Smartphones: '13 ............................. 24 Figure 15 Smartphone App Processor Market Shares (2G/3G & 3G/4G): '13 ...................................... 24 Figure 16 LTE USER Device Segmentation in Units from 2011-2013 .................................................. 33 Figure 17 Standalone vs. Com-Processor LTE Shipment Detail: '13 .................................................... 57 Figure 18 3G/LTE Com-Processor Baseband Shipment ...................................................................... 76 Figure 19 Renesas MP5232 LTE Communication Processor Diagram ................................................ 78 Figure 20 Multi/Single-mode FDD-LTE BB Supplier Shares: 2013 ....................................................... 87

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TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLES Table 1 Growth of LTE versus Market 2010-2013 .................................................................................. 3 Table 2 Five-Year 3G and 4G Subscriber Growth Rates by Geographical Regions ............................... 6 Table 3 Sales & ASP of Tablet, Smartphone & Non-Smartphone Segments: 2013................................ 7 Table 4 Smartphone Comparisons by Price Category............................................................................ 9 Table 5 Smartphone Suppliers YOY/Quarterly Market Shares: '12 & '13 ............................................. 13 Table 6 LTE/3G Smartphone Quarterly Shipments by Vendor: '12 & '13.............................................. 14 Table 7 Revenues of Top 13 Suppliers of Handsets & Tablets by Type: '13 ........................................ 15 Table 8 Smartphone Five-Year Unit Forecast by Global Regions ........................................................ 20 Table 9 Smartphone Shipment Forecast by Geography: '12-'18 .......................................................... 21 Table 10 Smartphone Five-Year Forecast by Operating System Usage .............................................. 21 Table 11 Tablet Quarterly Supplier Growth YOY: '12 to '13 ................................................................. 26 Table 12 Tablet Shipments by O/S: '12-'13 .......................................................................................... 27 Table 13 Media Tablet and Attached Modem Forecast: '12-'18............................................................ 31 Table 14 3G & LTE/3G Tablet Shipments by Vendor: 2012 & 2013. .................................................... 32 Table 15 Embedded Modems & Mobile Hotspots Forecast: '12-'18 ..................................................... 36 Table 16 HSPA and LTE Comparisons ................................................................................................ 40 Table 17 LTE Advanced Carrier Aggregation (CA) Defined by 3GPP .................................................. 43 Table 18 Small Cell Comparisons ........................................................................................................ 49 Table 19 LTE Shipment Forecast by Major Regions: '12-'18 ................................................................ 55 Table 20 TD-LTE Forecast by Frequency Bands from 2012-2018 ....................................................... 56 Table 21 Standalone LTE Baseband Forecasts by Type: '12-'18 ......................................................... 58 Table 22 LTE/3G Baseband Application Processor Forecasts: ’12-18 ................................................. 58 Table 23 Radio Transceiver 5-Year Forecast by Wireless Technology ................................................ 60 Table 24 Cellular Power Amplifier Unit Forecast by Air Technology: '13-'18 ........................................ 61 Table 25 Cellular Power Amplifier Forecast by Type: '13-'18 ............................................................... 62 Table 26 FDD Frequency Band Summary ........................................................................................... 63 Table 27 TDD LTE Bands .................................................................................................................... 65 Table 28 LTE Global Spectrum & Active Operator Summary ............................................................... 66 Table 29 LTE Spectrum and Active Operator Summary (continued) .................................................... 67 Table 30 LTE Operator Frequency Band Usage in the Americas ......................................................... 69 Table 31 LTE FDD Frequency Band Usage: Europe, Asia, MEA & Oceania ........................................ 70 Table 32 TDD LTE Band Usage – Europe, Asia, MEA, Oceania.......................................................... 71 Table 33 LTE Frequency Bands & Channel Bandwidths ...................................................................... 72 Table 34 LTE TDD Frequency Bands Regional Usage ........................................................................ 73 Table 35 Dual-, Quad- and Octa-core Communications Processor Profiles ......................................... 75 Table 36 Qualcomm Cellular Baseband/Transceiver Modes Supported ............................................ 105 Table 37 RFMD 3G/4G LTE Most Recent Power Amplifiers .............................................................. 113

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