1
I Q U I D P E resources, T R O L E U Mproduction, 2 0 1 5 D AT A F O R T H&Erefinery 1 7 L Acapacity RGEST LiquidL(C+C+NGL) consumption PRODUCERS IN AFRICA
Country (17 largest African liquid producers 2015)
Remaining Resources (mbbl) 2015
Consumption (kbbl/d) 2011 est
Refinery capacity (kbbl/d)
Export ®=refined products
Nigeria
30746
2261
272
445
Yes®
Angola
18495
1771
79
72
Yes
Algeria
30081
1738
316
500
Yes ®
Egypt
5908
627
816
730 + 300
No
Libya
28753
588
314
380
Yes
Eq. Guinea
2573
255
2
-
Yes
Congo
4464
243
11
21
Yes®
Gabon
5001
201
16
25
Yes®
South Sudan
1485
173
-
-
Yes
Chad
1321
119
2
20
Yes ®
Ghana
3136
97
62
48
Yes
Cameroon
708
77
29
42
Yes ®
Sudan
538
62
96
140
No ®
Tunisia
1940
61
88
34
No
Cote d’Ivoire
1511
32
25
78
®
Niger
226
19
6
20
Yes®
Dem Rep of Congo
845
14
10
15
No
137731
8338
2144
2570
Yes
SUM Sources: Rystad Energy Ucube and Wikipedia
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Production kbbl/d) 2015
COMPETING LICENSING POLICIES The table shows the main offshore licensing policies in two peer groups: one ‘African peer group’ (West African countries + Egypt) and one ‘Selected OECD countries + Brazil peer group’. Licensing policies are naturally very important to E&P companies in determining where to explore and pursue oil and gas operations. Today’s large international oil companies are truly global companies and have a great many options of offshore regions to invest in. This puts pressure on governments to promote their own region and incentivize investments. Licensing policies along with fiscal terms are key instruments to attract E&P investments.
Offshore licensing system Lease method
Primary criteria
Lease contract model
Licensing frequency
Angola
Tender / Open door
Work program, signature bonus, local contribution
Concession / JV
Irregular
Cote d’Ivoire
Open door
Work program, signature and production bonus
PSC
Irregular
Tender
Work program, profit oil share, signature bonus
PSC
Irregular
Equatorial Guinea
Tender / Open door
Major fiscal PSC terms, signature bonus
PSC
Irregular
Gabon
Open door / Tender
Work program, profit oil share, signature bonus
PSC
Irregular
Ghana
Open door
Work program, fiscal PSC terms
PSC / Concession
Irregular
Nigeria
Tender / aution
Work program, signature bonus
PSC
Irregular
Australia
Tender / Auction
Work program / cash bonus
Concession
Annual
Brazil
Tender
Work program, signature bonus, local content
Concession / PSC
Annual
Canada
Tender / Auction
Work program / cash bonus
Concession
Annual
Norway
Tender
Work program
Concession
Annual
UK
Tender
Work program
Concession
Every second year
USA
Auction
Cash bonus
Concession
Biannual
Egypt African peer group
Select OECD + Brazil peer group
Source: UCube & Rystad Energy research and analysis
Signature bonus
RESOURCE BASE AS PER 2015 FOR THE 20 LARGEST OIL & GAS COUNTRIES IN AFRICA
Ghana is thought to have Africa’s 20th. largest petroleum resources, and 12th.largest liquid resources. Total petroleum resources left are estimated to nearly 5 Bbbl oil equivalents, of how a little more than 3 Bbbl are liquids (70 %).
Source: Ucube & Rystad Energy research and analysis
THE 20 LARGEST OIL & GAS PRODUCERS IN AFRICA
Ghana is expected in 2015 to be Africa’s 12th. largest petroleum and 11t. largest liquid producer.
Ghana will in 2015 produce a little more than 100 Kbbl oe per day, of which most is crude oil.
Source: Ucube & Rystad Energy research and analysis
THE REPLACEMENT CHALLENGE Oil and gas is a non renewable resource that eventually will be replaced by other energy sources one day. Most countries strive to annually replace what has been produced. Replacement is mainly done by exploration, but also achieved by infill drilling, IOR initiatives and other technical improvements. The figure to the right shows annual discovered (liquid) volumes – bars and annual production - blue line.
Sankofa Sankofa East
Two challenges should constantly be in the focal point; - Intensify and make exploration more attractive - Get the discoveries sanctioned and developed when economic viable
Wawa
Jubilee phase 1b
Paradise
TEN
Saltpond
Source: Ucube & Rystad Energy research and analysis
Jubilee
Y E T T O F I N D , S P L I T B Y W AT E R D E P T H Ghana is currently considered to have a liquid YTF potential at 1.6 Bbbls, which of all is offshore. The potential groups in to two at water depth intervals; - 125-150 meters. - 500-1000 meters The YTF gas potential is considered to be 0.6 Bbbls oe, and be in the proximity of the liquid reserves. In comparison Ghana has by YE 2014 discovered about 1.7 Bbbls of liquids. Hence, not more than half of its currently considered potential.
PROJECTS DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE The figure to the right shows the predicted production of hydrocarbons from 2010 to 2040 for the three countries; Cote d’ivoire, Ghana and Gabon. The production is split by life cycle status. Brown reflects producing fields, and shows how rapid the production will drop if no new fields/discoveries (yellow/green) are put on stream. The blue areas show future production coming from fields that are currently not discovered.
OFFSHORE DISCOVERY COSTS The figures to the right show average offshore discovery costs per barrel in USD for the period 2005 to 2014 for the 20 largest oil and gas producers in the world. The same is showed to the far right for the12 most important offshore oil & gas countries in Africa. The data comprises both explorationand appraisal wells – dry and discoveries.
Average Discovery Costs 2005-2014 USD/bbl
Average Discovery Costs 2005-2014 for 12 African countries. USD/bbl
Iran Mozambique Saudi Arabia Tanzania
Russia
Average
Brazil
Cameroon
Azerbaijan India
Ghana
Average
Equatorial Guinea
Mexico
Nigeria
Australia
Congo
United States
Angola
Norway
Cote d'Ivoire
Nigeria
Senegal
Malaysia
Gabon
China
Egypt
Angola
0
Indonesia
10
Capitalized Discovery Cost pr bbl (USD/bbl)
Qatar
Expensed Discovery Cost pr bbl (USD/bbl) Signature Bonus Discovery Cost pr bbl (USD/bbl)
UAE Egypt Thailand United Kingdom 0
5
10
15
Capitalized Discovery Cost pr bbl (USD/bbl) Expensed Discovery Cost pr bbl (USD/bbl)
Source: Ecube & Rystad Energy research and analysis
5
Signature Bonus Discovery Cost pr bbl (USD/bbl)
20
15
O F F S H O R E C O S T O F S U P P LY I N 2 0 2 0 ( L I Q U I D S ) The figure to right shows the cost of supply (liquids) for the 6 West-African offshore producing countries as per 2020. Each dot represent an asset and its belonging break even price. Among the 6 selected countries, Ghana is expected to have the lowest break even costs followed by Congo. Note that Rystad Energy operates with an average oil price in 2020 at 113 USD/bbl (nominal)
Ghana
Source: Ucube & Rystad Energy research and analysis
CURRENT NPV & PROFIT SHARING The figure to the right shows the NPV of future profit split on governments and oil companies for the 15 largest oil and gas economies in Africa except for the 5 big ones (Nigeria, Algeria, Angola, Libya & Egypt).
Source: Ucube & Rystad Energy research and analysis
NPV of portfolio to the 10 largest E&P companies in Ghana
GNPC is holding an NPV on 3 BUSD out of a total of 22 BUSD for all upstream companies operating in Ghana.
Source: Ucube & Rystad Energy research and analysis
