Lecture Notes in Social Networks

Series Editors Reda Alhajj University of Calgary Calgary, AB, Canada Uwe Glässer Simon Fraser University Burnaby, BC, Canada Advisory Board Charu Aggarwal, IBM T.J. Watson Research Center, Hawthorne, NY, USA Patricia L. Brantingham, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada Thilo Gross, University of Bristol, United Kingdom Jiawei Han, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, IL, USA Huan Liu, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA Raúl Manásevich, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile Anthony J. Masys, Centre for Security Science, Ottawa, ON, Canada Carlo Morselli, University of Montreal, QC, Canada Rafael Wittek, University of Groningen, The Netherlands Daniel Zeng, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA

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James A. Dator • John A. Sweeney Aubrey M. Yee

Mutative Media Communication Technologies and Power Relations in the Past, Present, and Futures

James A. Dator Department of Political Science Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies University of Hawaii at Manoa Honolulu, HI, USA

John A. Sweeney Department of Political Science Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies University of Hawaii at Manoa Honolulu, HI, USA

Aubrey M. Yee Department of Political Science Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies University of Hawaii at Manoa Honolulu, HI, USA

ISSN 2190-5428 ISSN 2190-5436 (electronic) ISBN 978-3-319-07808-3 ISBN 978-3-319-07809-0 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-07809-0 Springer Cham Heidelberg New York Dordrecht London Library of Congress Control Number: 2014944071 © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2015 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. Exempted from this legal reservation are brief excerpts in connection with reviews or scholarly analysis or material supplied specifically for the purpose of being entered and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the Copyright Law of the Publisher’s location, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer. Permissions for use may be obtained through RightsLink at the Copyright Clearance Center. Violations are liable to prosecution under the respective Copyright Law. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. While the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication, neither the authors nor the editors nor the publisher can accept any legal responsibility for any errors or omissions that may be made. The publisher makes no warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein. Printed on acid-free paper Springer is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com)

“The bourgeoisie cannot exist without constantly revolutionizing the instruments of production, and thereby the relations of production, and with them the whole relations of society.” —Karl Marx

Preface

To grasp a glimpse at the futures, you must always begin with the past. Understanding the roots from whence we have come and how we have arrived at our present situation with all its guts and glory is foundational to thinking about where we may go in the years ahead. When we first began thinking about the notion of innovation and the technologies of communication we went way back to the beginning and have in fact returned several times to ponder foundational questions like whether Neanderthals had the capacity to speak and how oral societies adjusted to the world of written words. These and other monumental moments in the history of human communication technologies have helped us to think about the ways in which human communication might radically change in the futures. Will we someday soon be part artilect, part human with the ability to program our own internal software and download information to and from our friends? Will we be able to 3D print our clothing, new shoes, or the food we eat? Will synthetic biology allow us to manage our own genetic structures to enable longer, healthier lives? All of these burgeoning technologies appear within grasp and yet there are the looming potentialities of systems collapse with us at the very same moment. Will we be able to create truly clean energy to continue all of these technological advances? Will our population growth and economic fragility conspire to create an even deeper socioeconomic inequity in the future? Will climate change overwhelm our capacity to feed ourselves and will we see millions of climate refugees with no nation to call home creating increased geopolitical insecurity? All of these are very possible realities as well. This volume is the final product in a stream of presentations, publications, and other activities resulting from a research project based on a proposal titled, “Communicating Power: Technological Innovation and Social Change. Past, Present, and futures.” We submitted our research proposal in May 2011 in response to an invited call on “Technology, Innovation, and Society,” specifically focusing on “How does technology change the balance of power in society?” We were awarded a small research grant by the University of Hawaii Foundation and agreed to conduct that research for the 2012 calendar year. While we fulfilled the requirements of vii

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the grant during that period, we realized we had enough material to write a book on the subject. You are now reading the results of that decision. In our proposal we stated that, “We propose to examine how communication technologies have contributed to changes in the structure of societies, and hence to the distribution of political power, in the past, and at present, and in four alternative futures. We propose to rely on a survey and analysis of existing studies for our past and some of our present research; on original research on several current instances; and on certain techniques of alternative futures forecasting in order to develop and present the possible four alternative futures.” We approached this proposal with some preconceived notions born of years of thinking about these very issues. But as social scientists and futurists, we endeavored to remain open-minded and as unbiased as possible as we carried out our research. We proceeded as follows. First, we reviewed the proposal, and assigned specific tasks outlined in it to each of us. Dator took responsibility for the theoretical and historical portions from the evolution of human language through to the establishment of television and the Internet. Yee took responsibility for gathering and analyzing information about communication technologies and their impacts from the emergence of social media into the futures. Sweeney took responsibility for research on theories of power and for the development of the interactive game, which was actually co-devised with Aaron Rosa—to whom we owe immense gratitude. In addition to coordinating significant aspects of the game, Aaron made significant written contributions to Chap. 5, which developed from a report published in The Journal of Futures Studies. Aaron is also the artist behind the cover image for this monograph. He is a true renaissance man, and we are fortunate to have him as a colleague! In addition to our individual responsibilities for these various sections of the project, the three of us worked cooperatively on all aspects of the research throughout the course of 2012. We established a pattern whereby we engaged in our research individually on a daily basis, sharing electronically ideas and items we encountered not only as they related to our own kuleana (responsibility) but also to each other. Once a week, we met for several hours and discussed what each of us had done since our last face-to-face meeting. At the end of each face-to-face session, we assigned tasks and made commitments for research over the coming week. As the final months and weeks of the project neared, we intensified our individual research, our electronic correspondence, and our face-to-face discussions of ideas and concerns. The research process was both exhilarating and exhausting. Our weekly meetings were animated discussions of new findings as well as revisions of earlier assumptions. There have been various products of our labor along the way: 1. Presentation of research in progress by Aubrey Yee to the Department of Political Science, University of Hawaii at Mānoa, as part of a masters degree culminating experience. “Communicating Power: Technological Innovation and Social Change in the Past, Present, and Futures”—Honolulu, HI, May 2012. Link to presentation: http://prezi.com/wnlwvonipn8t/technology-innovation-and-society-grant-2012/

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2. Presentation of research in progress by John A. Sweeney at the University of California Santa Barbara, Contagion and Control: Speculative Futures Graduate Colloquium. The presentation was integral in thinking through our research into the futures of communication technology, specifically the affects of new media. Looking at two recent incidents related to viral media, Sweeney charted some trends and emerging issues that became critical aspects of the scenarios for our larger project. Santa Barbara, CA, May 2012. 3. Presentation by John A. Sweeney and Aubrey Yee, “Communicating Power: Technological Innovation and Social Change in the Past, Present, and Futures,” Session 15 on “Futures, values and sociological theory, Part II,” Research Committee Futures Research (RC07), International Sociological Association, Buenos Aires, Argentina, August 3, 2012. The connections made in Argentina and the feedback received from our conference presentation were an important part of the development and evolution of the final stage of our project and the futures immersive game in particular. Link to presentation: http://prezi.com/ wnlwvonipn8t/technology-innovation-and-society-grant-2012/ 4. Jim Dator, “Communication Technologies and the Futures of Courts and Law,” in Sam Muller, Stavros Zouridis, Morly Frishman and Laura Kistemaker (editors), The Law of the Future and the Future of Law Volume II. The Hague: Torkel Opsahl Academic EPublisher, 2012. Chapter 3.7, pp. 211–221. Portions of Chapter Two of this monograph are based on that article. 5. John A. Sweeney, Aubrey Yee, Aaron Rosa, Jim Dator, “Emerging Futures, Emerging Futurists.” A one-day futures symposium organized by the researchers to facilitate networking and presentations of academic works. Attended by over 30 academics in the field of futures studies from around the world. Honolulu, HI. November 30, 2012. 6. John A. Sweeney, Aubrey Yee, Aaron Rosa, Jim Dator, “Gaming with the Futures” (http://www.gamingwiththefutures.tumblr.com). We developed a portable gaming platform entailing experiential alternative futures to immerse players within a variety of power relations relative to an array of communication technologies. Participants included both undergraduate and graduate students from the University of Hawaii at Mānoa, undergraduate students from Kapiolani Community College, and visiting Futures Studies’ scholars and researchers from Australia, Bahrain, Canada, Finland, Germany, and the mainland. In total, “Gaming with the Futures” or “Gaming Futures” (as it was also called) utilized 12 gamers, 8 actors, and 5 facilitators. Honolulu, HI, December 1, 2012. 7. Jim Dator, John A. Sweeney, Aubrey Yee, Aaron Rosa, “Communicating Power: Technological Innovation and Social Change in the Past, Present, and Futures.” Report on TIS research and Gaming Futures published in The Journal of Futures Studies, June 2013, 17(4), 117–134. http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/17-4/R01.pdf 8. Aubrey Yee, John A. Sweeney, Jim Dator, Political Science Departmental Colloquium. Our research was presented to a group of students and faculty as part of a weekly colloquium series in the Department of Political Science, University of Hawaii at Mānoa, April 2013.

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Since that time, the three of us have worked on writing, revising, and rewriting our various sections of the book as well as commenting, adding, and editing each other’s work. We continued the rhythm with which we began our work: virtual meetings alternating with face-to-face meetings until we produced what you see here. As with all projects of this magnitude and certainly all projects dealing with alternative futures, one of the greatest challenges is knowing when to stop. There will always be more emerging issues, more relevant research, more ideas, and more revisions … especially more revisions. So, while we feel that this manuscript is a complete vision of our ideas, it will never (to us) feel fully completed. It will always be a thought experiment in progress. We hope that it inspires in you some thoughts about how you see the futures, some vigorous debates about the past, and some critical lenses with which to view the present. This is our collective vision, but it is quite surely not the only or the “right” one. Our thanks to Maury Solomon and Nora Rawn of Springer, for shepherding our manuscript through the publication process. They have been wonderful to work with in every way, Honolulu, HI April 1, 2014

James A. Dator John A. Sweeney Aubrey M. Yee

Contents

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2

Technology, Communication, Power, Society, and Change ................... 1.1 Introductory Concepts...................................................................... 1.2 What Is “Technology”? .................................................................... 1.3 Three Views of “Technology,” Plus One ......................................... 1.4 Three Kinds of Technology: Physical, Biological, and Social......... 1.5 Three Aspects of Technology: Hardware, Software, and Orgware ..................................................................................... 1.6 Six Phases of the Technological Life-Cycle .................................... 1.7 The Scope of Technology: Single Technologies, Clusters of Technologies, Levels of Technologies ......................................... 1.8 Six Eras of Social Organization ....................................................... 1.9 Technology, Social Change, and Age-Cohort/Generational Analysis............................................................................................ 1.10 Perspectives on Power and Technology........................................... 1.11 What Is Communication? ................................................................ 1.12 What Is “Society” and What Is “Social Change”?........................... 1.13 But Does Society Change? What Is Change and What Is Stability? ...................................................................... 1.14 What Is “Cause”? ............................................................................. References ................................................................................................... Communication Technologies and Power Relations in Five Historical Periods ......................................................................... 2.1 Language, Speech, and Power ......................................................... 2.2 Governance and Power in Oral Societies......................................... 2.3 Governance and Power in Scribal Societies: Tallies, Tokens, and Thought ..................................................................................... 2.3.1 The Emergence of Writing and the Transformation of Oral Societies...................................................................

1 1 2 3 8 9 12 15 16 17 18 24 25 27 29 31 33 33 36 40 42

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2.3.2 A Note on Women, Literacy, and Power ................................ 2.3.3 A Note on the Korean Alphabet and the Redistribution of Power ................................................................................. 2.4 The Printing Press, Governance, and Power ...................................... 2.4.1 Printing, Power, and Islam ..................................................... 2.4.2 Note on Printing in China and Korea..................................... 2.4.3 The Printing Press, Constitutionalism, and Logo Fundamentalism..................................................... References ................................................................................................... 3

4

Communication Technologies and Power Relations, from Electricity to Electronics ................................................................. 3.1 Electronic Communications and Power Relations............................. 3.2 From Electricity to Electronics .......................................................... 3.3 Moving Pictures ................................................................................. 3.4 Computers .......................................................................................... 3.5 The End of Authority? ....................................................................... 3.6 Which Medium Gave the Biggest Massage? ..................................... 3.7 Age-Cohort Analysis and Technological/Social Change ................... 3.7.1 Agricultural era Metaphors, Institutions, and Values Still Persist in the United States .......................... 3.7.2 Industrial Metaphors, Institutions, and Values Linger ........... 3.7.3 Information Metaphors, Institutions, and Values Shape Lives ......................................................... References ................................................................................................... Communication Technology in the Extended Present and Futures .................................................................................. 4.1 What’s Next? ...................................................................................... 4.1.1 Life in “Real Time”: Temporality and Visibility in the Internet Age.................................................................. 4.1.2 Access and Points of Control ................................................. 4.1.3 Ubiquitous Society: Surveillance Society.............................. 4.1.4 From Al Capone to Al Gore to Al Gorithm............................ 4.1.5 Networked Resistance and Control in the Twenty-First Century ................................................... 4.2 The Arab Spring, Occupy, and Others: Social Media and Revolution ................................................................................... 4.2.1 Amorphous Resistance: Anonymous ..................................... 4.2.2 The Myth of the “Wireless” World ........................................ 4.2.3 Control: Crock Pots and Child Porn ...................................... 4.2.4 Impacts of Electronic Technologies on Thinking and Being........................................................... References ...................................................................................................

51 53 55 63 69 70 74 77 77 81 83 87 89 92 92 104 104 105 105 107 107 110 114 115 116 119 119 123 124 126 127 130

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Alternative Futures at the Mānoa School ............................................... 5.1 Introduction ........................................................................................ 5.2 The Seven Driving Forces Matrix...................................................... 5.3 The Unholy Trinity, Plus One ............................................................ 5.4 Emerging Issues Analysis .................................................................. 5.4.1 The Life Cycle of an Emerging Issue .................................... 5.5 Some Horizon Scan Hits, Circa 2012–2014 ...................................... 5.5.1 Synthetic Biology and Biotechnology ................................... 5.5.2 Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning ........................ 5.5.3 Nanotechnology ..................................................................... 5.5.4 3-D Printing Technology........................................................ 5.5.5 Teleportation .......................................................................... 5.5.6 Infectious Media, Literally..................................................... 5.5.7 Microwave Missiles ............................................................... 5.5.8 Pigeons and Pencils................................................................ References ...................................................................................................

133 133 138 140 141 141 143 143 145 146 147 147 148 148 149 149

6

Gaming Futures......................................................................................... 6.1 Introduction ........................................................................................ 6.2 Gameplay ........................................................................................... 6.3 Four Futures for Gaming Futures ...................................................... 6.3.1 Red Scenario .......................................................................... 6.3.2 Red Script............................................................................... 6.3.3 Blue Scenario ......................................................................... 6.3.4 Blue Script ............................................................................. 6.3.5 Green Scenario ....................................................................... 6.3.6 Green Script ........................................................................... 6.3.7 Yellow Scenario ..................................................................... 6.3.8 Yellow Script .......................................................................... References ...................................................................................................

153 153 156 157 158 159 164 166 171 172 178 179 184

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Mutatis Mutandis ...................................................................................... 7.1 Change Happened .............................................................................. 7.2 Mutative Conclusions ........................................................................ References ...................................................................................................

185 185 186 190

Appendix: Results from Gaming Futures ..................................................... 191 Glossary ........................................................................................................... 201 Index ................................................................................................................. 205

About the Authors

James A. Dator is Professor and Director of the Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies, Department of Political Science, and Adjunct Professor in the Program in Public Administration, the College of Architecture, and the Center for Japanese Studies, of the University of Hawaii at Mānoa; Co-Chair and Core Lecturer, Space Humanities, International Space University, Strasbourg, France; former President, World Futures Studies Federation. He also taught at Rikkyo University (Tokyo, for 6 years), the University of Maryland, Virginia Tech, the University of Toronto, and the InterUniversity Consortium for Postgraduate Studies in Dubrovnik, Yugoslavia. He received a B.A. in Ancient and Medieval History and Philosophy from Stetson University, an M.A. in Political Science from the University of Pennsylvania, and a Ph.D. in Political Science from The American University. He did postgraduate work at Virginia Theological Seminary (Ethics and Church History), Yale University (Japanese Language), The University of Michigan (Linguistics and Quantitative Methods), Southern Methodist University (Mathematical Applications in Political Science). He is a Danforth Fellow, Woodrow Wilson Fellow, and Fulbright Fellow.

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About the Authors

John A. Sweeney is Deputy Director of the Center for Postnormal Policy and Futures Studies at East-West University in Chicago, IL, and a Ph.D. candidate in the Department of Political Science at the University of Hawaii at Mānoa (UHM), where he is also a Researcher at the Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies. John received his Master’s Degree in Religion from UHM in 2007 and a Bachelor’s Degree in History of Ideas (magna cum laude) from Kennesaw State University in 2005. In support of his doctoral studies, John is also an Affiliate Researcher at the Centre for Studies on Urban Creativity at Sapienza—Università di Roma in Italy and a member of the Nonkilling Futures Studies Research Committee with the Center for Global Nonkilling. John has facilitated and designed strategic foresight workshops in conjunction with the East-West Center in Myanmar, Kanu Hawaii, the Hawaii State Office of Planning, UNESCO, and other local and international organizations. He is a member of the World Futures Studies Federation, the World Future Society, and the Association of Professional Futurists. He also serves on the Board of Directors of Kanu Hawaii and the Advisory Board for Itineration: Cross-Disciplinary Studies in Rhetoric, Media, and Culture. John’s work has been published in The Journal of Futures Studies, Ctheory, Futures, and East-West Affairs: A Quarterly Journal of North-South Relations in Postnormal Times. He tweets on trends, emerging issues, and all things postnormal at @aloha_futures.

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Aubrey Morgan Yee was born and raised on Oahu. Aubrey Morgan Yee is a futurist, business strategist, and consultant. She is currently pursuing a Ph.D. in Futures Studies in the Department of Political Science at the University of Hawaii at Mānoa, where she is also a Researcher at the Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies. Aubrey is the project director for the Omidyar Group’s new initiative—Hawaii Quality of Life—using systems mapping and complexity theory to help nonprofit social change organizations with their strategic planning. She received her undergraduate degree from UCLA in American Studies. Aubrey has co-facilitated foresight workshops for the State Office of Planning on Oahu, the Hawaii Futures Summit, Samsung Corporation, Kamehameha Schools, Oxfam’s Asian Development Dialogue Series, the first annual Myanmar Futures Exchange, and a variety of other national and international organizations, institutions, and businesses. Aubrey currently serves on the board of KANU Hawaii, a grassroots social change nonprofit dedicated to increasing the quality of life in our islands through promoting island values. She also consults as a strategist and writer for Sustainable America. Aubrey and her husband Brady helped to found the Hawaii chapter of After School All Stars, a nonprofit serving Hawaii’s at-risk middle school youth by providing free after school enrichment programs. In her scant free time, she enjoys writing, working on her fine art photography, and relaxing with her family in Kaneohe on the island of Oahu.