Leadership Denver Policy Day Political Trends in Colorado Floyd Ciruli December 2015 Ciruli Associates 777 Grant St., Ste 303 Denver, CO 80203 PH (303) 399-3173 FAX (303) 399-3147 www.ciruli.com
The New Colorado Election System 2016 election – The new Colorado election system
Nationalization of election All Obama and the presidential race, all the time
Proliferation of forecasts Who’s in and out Who’s up and down
Money is overwhelming Mostly “independent,” out-of-state TV is still king, advertisements at saturation
Power of media Debates Endorsements, truth tests Ideological web platforms 1
Ciruli Associates 2015
2016: Third Term or Republican Resurgence? President Obama’s Approval Ratings 2012-2015 60%
Metrics • • • • • •
Obama spread – (7%) Congressional approval – 13% Generic ballot test – Reps 1% Direction, right – 28% House 234, need 17/lost 13 (30) Senate 45, need 6/won 9 (5)
50%
54% 49%
50%
50%
48%
48%
47%
40%
42%
56% 52%
43%
49%
51%
51%
44%
44%
47% 40%
30%
Approval
Disapproval Source: Real Clear Politics 2013/14/15 Formatted: Ciruli Associates 2015
188
House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi
44 (2)
247 (+13)
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid
Speaker Paul Ryan
2
54 (+9)
Senator Mitch McConnell
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Control of U.S. Senate 2016 Democrats Need 4 and VP or 5 Wisconsin Lean Dem
Illinois Lean Dem
New Hampshire Toss-up
Ohio Lean Rep
Nevada Toss-up
Pennsylvania Lean Rep North Carolina Lean Rep
Colorado Lean Dem Arizona Lean Rep
Oklahoma Lean Rep 3
Florida Toss-up
Ciruli Associates 2015
Bennet is on Deck
Democrats Need to Hold the Seat in 2016 There are several factors that point to his initial advantages going into the election: •
•
•
Voter turnout will be up to presidential levels. The 2 million this year will balloon to 2.8 or 3.0 million. Many of the less frequent voters lean Democratic. Bennet works his Washington and Senate networks for maximum advantage. He’s substantially less publicity shy than Mark Udall. It’s assumed he’ll be ready with a powerful resume and a substantial war chest. Denver Post likes him. The Republican bench in Colorado is thin if current officeholders are the main prospective candidates.
But there are several factors that point to a tough race for Bennet: • The Democratic nominee for president and Democratic senators up for re-election will likely be running with an unpopular president. Historically, passing on the presidency to the same party is difficult. As of today, Hillary Clinton is not running strong. 4
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1972, 1992, 2002, 2014 Colorado Politics in the ‘70s 1972 1972 1972 1974 1974 1974
Olympic bid defeated 61% Wayne Aspinall, Mr. Chairman, defeated Pat Schroeder goes to Congress Nixon resigns (August) Dick Lamm, Gary Hart, Tim Wirth, Sam Brown elected Democrats take State House, lose it in 1976
Govs. (L to R) Dick Lamm, Bill Ritter, John Hickenlooper, Bill Owens and Roy Romer at a fundraiser at the governor’s mansion on Nov. 20. Photo: Bernard Grant/The Colorado Statesman
Colorado Politics in the 2000s Offices
All Republican 2002
All Democrat 2008
Divided 2014 Results
Governor
Owens R
Ritter D
Hickenlooper D
U.S. Senate U.S. Senate Congress Colorado House
Campbell R Allard R 5R, 2D 37R, 28D
Salazar D Udall D 2R, 5D 27R, 37D
Bennet D Gardner R 4R, 3D 3 seats D
Colorado Senate President
18R, 17D Bush 8% (2000) Bush 5% (2004)
14R, 21D Obama 9%
1 seat R Obama 5%
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Colorado Election – 2015 Turnout 36%; in 2013, 46% • Denver investments – Stock Show – DIA – No to college tuition • Schools – Denver – Jeffco (turnout 45%) – Douglas, et al • Marijuana – Tax and TABOR override – Mostly allow, some “no’s,” Denver saturation? 6
Ciruli Associates 2015
Denver Mayor Easy Re-election Denver Mayors 1968 - 2014
Bill McNichols Federico Peña Wellington Webb John Hickenlooper Michael Hancock
1968-1983 1983-1991 1991-2003 2003-2011 2011-2015
(4 (2 (3 (2 (2
terms) terms) terms) terms) terms)
Ciruli Associates 2015 Note: McNichols served 3 years remaining on Tom Currigan’s second term. John Hickenlooper resigned to run for governor of Colorado near the end of his second term. He was replaced for 7 months by Bill Vidal (Jan. 12 to Jul. 18, 2011). Floyd Ciruli “There is generally a good feeling about the city right now,” he said. “And Hancock nicely represents a fulcrum point in the politics of the city. He is not too left or not too right.”
Former Mayor Bill McNichols
“Ultimately, the final thing is leadership,” Ciruli said. “Is there someone with the name ID and money and grassroots support — not just a gadfly or marginal candidate? I don't see that person.” (Denver Post, 2-1-15) 7
Mayor Michael Hancock
Ciruli Associates 2015
Denver Metro Population Triples in 50 Years Denver Drops From Half to a Fifth of Metro Population Denver Metro Population 1960 - 2010 Year
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Denver Population
493,887 514,678 492,365 467,610 554,636 600,158
% Change
4 -4 -5 19 8
Metro Population
934,199 1,235,936 1,618,461 1,848,319 2,400,570 2,784,228
% Change
32 31 14 30 16
Denver % of Metro Population
52% 42 30 25 23 21
Seven counties: Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield, Denver, Douglas and Jefferson
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U.S. Generations Years Born
Ages Today
High School Years
Greatest Generation Silent Generation Baby Boomers
1900-1924
90-114
1915-1938
1925-1945
69-89
1939-1959
1946-1964
50-68
1960-1978
Generation X
1965-1982
32-49
1979-1996
Millennials/ Generation Y
1983-2000
14-31
1997-2016
Generation Z
2001-
1-13
2015-
Formative Experiences
WWI, Roaring Twenties, Crash, Depression End of WWII, Cold War, Postwar boom, civil rights Cold War, urban riots, Kennedy, space, King, Vietnam, protest, Woodstock, Haight-Ashbury, Nixon, Silent Majority Feminism, MTV, Chernobyl, Reagan, AIDS, end of Soviet empire, Rodney King, globalization, Clinton Internet, Columbine, Y2K, smartphone, Bush, Twin Towers, Katrina, War on Terror, Iraq, Great Recession, Obama, social media, reality TV, gay rights, legal pot Ciruli Associates 2014
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Ciruli Associates 2015
Millennials Size of Generations Generation Millennial Generation X Baby Boomer Silent Greatest
Numbers in Short 2015 75 million 66 million 75 million 29 million ?
Ages 18-34 35-50 51-69 70-87 88 and older
2050 79 million 50 million 17 million ---
Source: Pew Research 2015 Formatted: Ciruli Associates 2015
Ideology of Generations Millennial (18-34) Generation X (35-50) Baby Boomers (51-69) Silent/Greatest (over 69) Overall
Liberal 30% 23 21 17 24
Moderate 40% 39 33 33 36
Conservative 28% 35 44 48 38
Gap -2 +12 +23 +31 +14
Source: Pew Research 2015 Formatted: Ciruli Associates 2015 10
Ciruli Associates 2015
Changes in Colorado Voters’ Social Viewpoints Legalize Recreational Marijuana and Approve Civil Unions Colorado 2006 and 2012
14 percentage point shift from 2006 to 2012 1992 Amendment 43: yes 56%; prohibited minority status for gays
Yes 2006 Legalize No 2006
41%
Yes 2012 Legalize No 2012
59% 55%
45%
Yes 2006 Civil unions No 2006 Civil unions
47%
53% 71%
Yes 2013 Poll No 2013 Poll 22%
Sources: Colorado Secretary of the State, 2006, 2013; Quinnipiac 2013 Formatted: Ciruli Associates 2014
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Ciruli Associates 2015
Regional Elections Highly Successful in Region-wide Elections Date
Issue
Yes
No
1988
SCFD established
75%
25%
1990
Baseball stadium
54
46
1994
SCFD extension
57
43
1997
RTD light rail
42
58
1998
Football stadium
57
43
2004
RTD light rail
58
42
2004
SCFD extension
66
34
Photo: Bill Cobb
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Denver Regionalism Challenged One of the significant assets of the Denver metro area has been its commitment to regionalism. Voters and leaders have supported the following initiatives:
SCFD elections: 1998, 1994, 2004 RTD: 1997, 2004 Baseball: 1990; football: 1998 Denver Metro Mayors Caucus (40 mayors, starts in 1993) Metro Denver Economic Development Corporation (70 organizations, 1980s)
Challenges But today, there are many challenges. The key will be how to maintain shared fortunes and futures: Core city population growth and economic viability (650,000), 3rd fastest growing state 2004, tops in job growth, 6th fastest growing city 2014 Airport and tourism as shared regional assets Tamping down regional economic rivalries 13
Ciruli Associates 2015
Denver Metro Economic Surge The latest sales tax revenue report from the Denver metro seven-county region shows a 9.22 percent increase over last year. A one-percent sales tax collected region-wide would have produced $467 million for local governments (or RTD) through September, on its way to more than half billion by year’s end. Colorado’s economy in 2014 has benefitted from the national economic improvement and specifically local population increases (4th fastest growth in U.S. in 2014). One risk is the impact of declining oil prices on metro economic activity. One Percent Denver Metro (7-county) Sales Tax Revenue Increase from 2013 to 2014 $600,000,000
$550,000,000
$500,000,000
$500,000,000 $400,000,000 $300,000,000 $200,000,000 $100,000,000 $0
December 2014 *estimate
December 2015
Source: State of Colorado 2014 Formatted: Ciruli Associates 2014, 2015 14
Ciruli Associates 2015
Colorado Legislation and Ballot Issues Legislation - 2015
Ballot Issues
Spending/TABOR Fracking Construction defects Education/health care Marijuana Social issues Transportation Water
2014 145 filed, 4 make it, 1 wins Personhood – loses Gaming – loses Open meeting – wins Labeling – loses 2016 Single-payer health care Congressional re-districting Fracking 15
Ciruli Associates 2015
Geopolitical Risk 2015-2016
Weather
100-year flood, climate change
Economy
Gas and oil down 50%, EU weak, euro parity, China, Japan
Political turmoil Political gridlock
Crimea, Charlie Hebdo, Paris, ISIL Shutdown, sequester, TABOR
Social turbulence
Ferguson
Populism
Anti-fracking, anti-immigration, Arab Spring, Tea Party
Pandemic
Ebola, flu, measles
Tech disruption
Hacking, rioting, terror networks 16
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