“LCA in the Automotive Sector” Russ Balzer Technical Director, WorldAutoSteel
WorldAutoSteel
Automotive Group of the World Steel Association MEMBER COMPANIES: Ansteel Arcelor Mittal Baosteel China Steel JFE JSW Steel Hyundai Steel Kobe Nippon Steel & Sumitomo
Nucor POSCO Severstal SSAB Tata Steel ThyssenKrupp USIMINAS U. S. Steel voestalpine
In this Presentation
• • •
The problem with current regulations
The need for Life Cycle Thinking What is the Steel Industry Doing?
In this Presentation
• The problem with current regulations • •
The need for Life Cycle Thinking What is the Steel Industry Doing?
Tailpipe emissions standards are becoming more stringent across the globe
Source: International Council on Clean Transportation August 2011
The Tailpipe Approach
Fuel Production
Vehicle Production
Vehicle Use (Fuel Combustion)
Current Regulations
Vehicle End of Life
What are the Engineering Principles Behind Light-weighting? Q: How can car manufacturers reduce tailpipe GHG emissions? Let’s look at where the tractive power demand is coming from: 𝑃𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑡 = 𝒎𝑔𝑪𝑹𝑹 + 1 8 𝜌𝑪𝑫 𝑨𝑭 𝑉𝑖 + 𝑉𝑖+1 Rolling Resistance
Aerodynamic Drag
2
+ 𝒎𝒓 𝑉𝑖 + 𝑉𝑖+1 + 1 2 𝒎𝑔 sin 𝑞 𝑉𝑖 + 𝑉𝑖+1 Inertia acceleration
Inertia - grade
A: Manufacturers can:
• • • •
Reduce the aerodynamic drag coefficient and/or the frontal area
Reduce rolling resistance coefficient Increase the energy conversion efficiency of the drive train Reduce vehicle mass o vehicle mass shows up in 3 of the 4 power demand terms o vehicle mass can be reduced using low density materials
A Hole in the Tailpipe Approach
A Hole in the Tailpipe Approach Material Production GHG comparison for a functionally equivalent component - typical example Mid-Range CO2e
Estimated Part Weight (kg)
Mild Steel
2.3
100
AHSS
2.3
75
Aluminium
11.3
67
Magnesium
46.0
50
Carbon FRP
22.0
45
(kg CO2e) 230 173
757 2300
990
A Hole in the Tailpipe Approach An unintended consequence of tailpipe-only regulations Vehicle Production emissions Tailpipe emissions Cost Result: potential for overall higher GHG emissions at higher cost
What Does the Future Hold? Affect of increased powertrain efficiency and alternative fuels on carbon footprint
Battery electric vehicle
Fuel economy or tailpipe emissions standards are not enough to ensure overall reductions in automotive GHG emissions.
In this Presentation
•
The problem with current regulations
• The need for Life Cycle Thinking •
What is the Steel Industry Doing?
Life Cycle Assessment (LCA)
Source: worldsteel
Who Uses LCA? Automakers
Consumer Products Manufacturers
Material Producers
Industry Associations
In this Presentation
• • •
The problem with current regulations
The need for Life Cycle Thinking What is the Steel Industry Doing?
Including LCA in future regulations
•
What is the Steel Industry Doing?
•
Technical Programs
•
•
LCA Development
•
•
How can we help OEMs use steel more efficiently?
How can we help to develop LCA tools and methodologies?
LCA Policy
•
How can we convince regulators that LCA is the right way to go?
Including LCA in future regulations
•
What is the Steel Industry Doing?
•
Technical Programs
•
•
LCA Development
•
•
How can we help OEMs use steel more efficiently?
How can we help to develop LCA tools and methodologies?
LCA Policy
•
How can we convince regulators that LCA is the right way to go?
Technical Programs - FutureSteelVehicle
ULSAB UltraLight Steel Auto Body
ULSAC UltraLight Steel Auto Closures
ULSAS UltraLight Steel Auto Suspensions
Nature’s Way to Mobility ULSAB-AVC Advanced Vehicle Concepts
Technical Programs – FutureSteelVehicle
1. State-of-the-future development process
2. 177 kg body structure mass - 39% mass reduction 3. 97% use of HSS and AHSS
4. Nearly 50% GigaPascal steels 5. Enables 5-star safety ratings
6. Nearly 70%Total Lifetime Emissions Reduction 7. Mass savings at no cost penalty 8. Near-term production applicable solutions
Technical Programs – AHSS Application Guidelines
AHSS Guidelines version 5.0 • Significant changes since 2008: • steel industry consolidation • FSV deliverables • global vehicle regulations converging • Include FSV learnings • materials portfolio • fabrication methods • Significant joining upgrades
Including LCA in future regulations
•
What is the Steel Industry Doing?
•
Technical Programs
•
•
LCA Development
•
•
How can we help OEMs use steel more efficiently?
How can we help to develop LCA tools and methodologies?
LCA Policy
•
How can we convince regulators that LCA is the right way to go?
LCA Development - Automotive Materials Comparison Models • UCSB Automotive Materials Energy and GHG Comparison Model • Design Advisor • autoLCA
LCA Development – UCSB GHG Model • Full-vehicle model using peer-reviewed LCA methodology • GHG and Total Primary Energy
LCA Development – UCSB GHG Model
• 7 Powertrains 5 vehicle classes 3 driving cycles
• 2 Recycling Methodologies
MSR
CSE
LCA Development – UCSB GHG Model Fully parameterized and transparent End of Life Management of Vehicle
Conventional Steel Flat carbon steel Long & special steel Cast iron AHSS (ULSAB-AVC) Flat carbon steel Long & special steel Cast iron Aluminum Rolled aluminum Extruded aluminum Cast aluminum Composites SMC GFRP CFRP Magnesium Cast Mg Zirmax AZ91 Alloy Rolled Mg
Collection
Shredder
Material Recycling Recovery Rate
in %
in %
in %
in %
97% 97% 97%
98% 98% 98%
95% 95% 95%
90.3% 90.3% 90.3%
97% 97% 97%
98% 98% 98%
95% 95% 95%
90.3% 90.3% 90.3%
97% 97% 97%
90% 90% 90%
90% 90% 90%
78.6% 78.6% 78.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
97% 97% 97%
90% 90% 90%
90% 90% 90%
78.6% 78.6% 78.6%
LCA Development – Design Advisor • Vehicle system level analysis of component material options • Comparison of mass, cost, GHG emissions
LCA Development – Design Advisor • Multiple Secondary Mass Change methodologies
LCA Development – Design Advisor Sensitivity Analysis for Key Parameters Perturbed Performance
Comparison Base-line to Perturbed nominal vehicle -2 better
0
resized vehicle 2 better
nominal
1
resized
difference
20.00 18.00
18.00 16.00
1507
1505
40
96
3
% of nom
-2.00 -2.00 -0.60 -2.60
-10% -11%
56.08 -0.80 55.28 -5.27
140%
0%
5
7
11640
9
8988
11635 8984
0%
-4.07 50.01
11
51.21
• Built-in Sensitivity Analysis
13
15
17
19
21
Run Analysis
80 4462 4541 -38 -1869 -1907 34375 37010
260 4460 4720 0 -1868 -1868 34360 37212
180.94 -1.90 179.03 38.26 0.70 38.97 -15.56 202.43
227% 0% 4% -100% 0% -2% 0% 1%
+10% 0 -10%
Competitor component mass Nominal vehicle mass Vehicle mass compounding Fuel consumption mass sensitivity Fuel CO2/unit Material CO2/kg - Original Part Reset Material CO2/kg - Competitor Part parameter Recy cling Rate - Original Part Recy cling Rate - Competitor Part values Recy cling CO2/kg - Original Part Recy cling CO2/kg - Competitor Part
LCA Development - autoLCA™ • Importation of UCSB methodology into GaBi modeling software • Ganzheitliche Bilanz (“Holistic Balance”) • Connection to GaBi datasets – Standardized data – Full LCI data – GaBi is used globally
LCA Development - autoLCA™ • GaBi datasets – 4700 LCI (Lifecycle Inventory) Datasets – Database upgrades every year – Standardization of methods and boundaries across datasets
LCA Development - autoLCA™
As in the UCSB Model, GHG and Energy results are displayed by Life Cycle stage…
… and by driving distance.
LCA Development - Case Study in autoLCA™ Full Results CHARACTERIZATION RESULTS TRACI 2.1, Acidification Air [kg SO2-Equiv.] TRACI 2.1, Acidification Water [kg SO2-Equiv.] TRACI 2.1, Ecotoxicity (recommended) [CTUeco] TRACI 2.1, Eutrophication Air [kg N-Equiv.] TRACI 2.1, Eutrophication Water [kg N-Equiv.] TRACI 2.1, Global Warming Air [kg CO2-Equiv.] TRACI 2.1, Human Health Particulate Air [kg PM2,5-Equiv.] TRACI 2.1, Human toxicity, cancer (recommended) [CTUh] TRACI 2.1, Human toxicity, non-canc. (recommended) [CTUh] TRACI 2.1, Ozone Depletion Air [kg CFC 11-Equiv.] TRACI 2.1, Resources, Fossil fuels [MJ surplus energy] TRACI 2.1, Smog Air [kg O3-Equiv.]
Baseline Vehicle
AHSS intensive
Aluminium intensive
65.376
61.264
65.296
0.03975
0.03492
0.02712
13.486
12.091
9.501
2.3936
2.2510
2.2953
3.1806
2.9894
2.8841
33548
31597
32013
8.3776
7.8657
8.9710
1.7965E-07
1.6513E-07
2.1296E-07
3.1270E-08
2.9406E-08
3.0430E-08
7.8458E-05
6.6022E-05
4.2219E-05
60711
57349
57525
675.52
632.10
662.56
LCA Development - Partnerships Participation in key industry and environmental activities • International LCA/Sustainability Organizations – Participating in LCA advocacy and the development of LCA methodology • Worldwide conferences on LCA and Sustainability – Learning and sharing best practices • Leading Universities – Funding Automotive and LCA research
Including LCA in future regulations
•
What is the Steel Industry Doing?
•
Technical Programs
•
•
LCA Development
•
•
How can we help OEMs use steel more efficiently?
How can we help to develop LCA tools and methodologies?
LCA Policy
•
How can we convince regulators that LCA is the right way to go?
LCA Policy – Awareness to Deployment Engagement of Regulators
• • •
Current focus on EU Provide technical support
• •
Modeling tools LCA workshops
Push for inclusion of LCA in post-2020 regulations
LCA Policy – Awareness to Deployment Current State of Play
Final rule did not explicitly support LCA, but did cite its potential to account for production emissions relevant to future vehicles. USEPA will create an LCA Group to monitor development.
Recommendation made by Environment Committee to consider full LCA in post-2020 regulations removed from the recital, but recital does contain a recommendation that policy action take into account emissions associated with fuel/energy production.
In Conclusion • Current Tailpipe-only regulations ignore emissions from other aspects of a vehicle's life cycle and lead to an overemphasis on mass reduction. • Life Cycle Assessment takes into account all phases of a vehicle's life and gives a more comprehensive picture of a vehicle's environmental impact. • WorldAutoSteel is working with universities, our member companies, and the LCA community to develop the technologies, tools and methods needed for LCA to be used in vehicle emissions regulations. • WorldAutoSteel is working to educate regulators and lawmakers on the advantages of LCA as a regulatory tool, and to encourage them to include LCA in future emissions regulations.
LCA in the Automotive Sector
Thank You!
Questions? Please contact me at
[email protected]