LAST TIME

• Population growth, distribution, and size in Latin America • Urbanization
Problems with urban growth continued • The urban economy • Migration

TODAY

• Agricultural and Rural Development • Tropical Deforestation

Agricultural and Rural Development: Internal Colonization of Tropical Lowlands

• An example from Amazonia
> 600 million ha
Amazonian environments  Terra firme  Várza Savanna

Development history in Amazonia

•

Early extractive uses
Rubber
Forestry

Development history in Amazonia

•

“Spontaneous” peasant agricultural colonization
Brazilian
Andean

Development history in Amazonia

•

Governmentally planned peasant colonization
highways
planning excessively centralized
Highway location bad for soils
geopolitical motives
domestic political motives

Development history in Amazonia

• •

Cattle ranching Fishbone patterns

Development history in Amazonia

• • • •

Scale & geography of change Soil degradation on already poor soils Poor rural health Poor government planning

Development history in Amazonia

• • • •

Consequences Farm abandonment Consolidation by cattle ranchers and large soy farmers urbanization

Amazonian deforestation •

•

Wider consequences
in Brazil
speculation and abandoned lands
deforestation of rare tropical rain forest
destruction of species
destruction of Indigenous people’s traditional livelihood
consequences for global warming
fails to solve land tenure problem Solutions?

Tropical Deforestation •

Deforestation rates

Tropical Deforestation •

Causes
agricultural clearing
pasture clearing
timber harvesting
oil exploration/extraction
population growth?
degradation of lands in source areas of migrants
poor land tenure equity in source areas of migrants

Population and Environmental Change in Latin America

• 519 million people in 2000 (UN, 2001) • 30 year doubling time, 1970-2000. 1 billion by 2100? • Declining fertility, Rural out-migration (2% annually) and Urbanization, but…

• Rapid forest clearing • Major impact of rural-rural migrants and pasture expansion

© T. M. Whitmore

Significance Environmental Impacts The Amazon basin alone contains: 1) the greatest extent of closed tropical forests in the world 2) 45% of all the fresh water on the Earth 3) the planet’s largest carbon sink 4) the planet’s most bio-diverse forests Human development Impacts • rural underdevelopment • food production

© T. M. Whitmore

Central America: Forest Cover

Source: FAO, 2003

© T. M. Whitmore

South America: Forest Cover

Source: FAO, 2003

© T. M. Whitmore

Results Central America 1961-2001

• 59% rural population increase (19 million) • 34%. rural population density increase. • 15% deforestation (13 million ha.) • Great temporal and geographic variation

© T. M. Whitmore

CENTRAL AMERICA Rural Population Density 1961

1961-2001

Rural Population Change

Deforesta tion

1961-2000

1961-2001

Change Forest/Capita 19812000

19612000

Costa Rica

1.76

81%

98%

-45%

-24%

-72%

Dominican Republic

2.32

-22%

26%

100%

109%

59%

El Salvador

2.51

8%

51%

-49%

-17%

-66%

Guatemala

1.79

106%

156%

-49%

-62%

-80%

Haiti

2.81

71%

62%

-51%

-46%

-70%

Honduras

1.02

109%

101%

-11%

5%

-56%

Mexico

0.78

21%

39%

-6%

2%

-32%

Nicaragua

0.81

29%

137%

-51%

-51%

-79%

Panama

1.20

51%

87%

-40%

© T. M. Whitmore -47% -68%

Central America: Pasture and Arable & Permanently Cropped Land as a Percent of Total Land 60% 50% 40% 30%

38.9%

34.9%

36.7%

12.9%

13.1%

15.2%

1961

1981

2001

20% 10% 0%

© T. M. Whitmore

Fertilizer Use (1000 Kg/Ha. of Cropland)

Percent A&P Land Irrigated

1961

1981

2001

1961

1981

2001

5.42

12.97

20.57

19

72

128

11.11

11.93

17.23

14

58

98

El Salvador

2.78

4.97

4.95

21

88

73

Guatemala

2.08

3.98

6.82

15

89

183

Haiti

3.02

7.82

6.82

0

6

14

Honduras

3.38

4.65

5.60

6

28

152

12.63

22.17

23.15

191

1561

1870

Nicaragua

1.53

6.37

4.38

4

60

23

Panama

2.48

4.83

5.04

5

30

29

Average

10.39

17.75

19.04

30

222

© T. M.285 Whitmore

Central America Costa Rica Dominican Republic

Mexico

South America

1961-2001

• 62 million decrease in rural population (-6%) • rural population density nearly halved • 6% deforestation (12% weighted).

© T. M. Whitmore

SOUTH AMERICA Rural Population Density

Rural Population Change

1961

1961-2001

1961-2000

Argentina

0.19

-34%

-19%

Bolivia

1.49

-32%

Brazil

1.41

Chile

Deforestation 1961-2001

Change Forest/Capita 1981-2000

1961-2000

-34%

-39%

-18%

47%

-12%

-13%

-40%

-66%

-21%

-3%

20%

23%

0.64

46%

-12%

-18%

-15%

-7%

Colombia

1.76

40%

20%

-16%

-3%

-30%

Ecuador

1.18

34%

59%

-43%

-35%

-64%

Paraguay

1.50

-48%

101%

8%

-14%

-46%

Venezuela

2.15

-57%

6%

26%

38%

19%

© T. M. Whitmore

South America: Pasture and Arable & Permanently Cropped Land as a Percent of Total Land 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

26.3%

30.3%

8.4%

7.7%

1981

2001

23.9%

4.6% 1961

© T. M. Whitmore

Fertilizer Use (1000 Kg/Ha. of Cropland)

Percent A&P Land Irrigated

1961

1981

2001

1961

1981

2001

Argentina

3.45

4.55

4.46

16

96

860

Bolivia

4.99

4.44

4.26

0.8

7

12

Brazil

1.73

2.59

4.38

270

2,753

6,773

Chile

28.02

22.74

82.61

46

114

481

Colombia

4.55

7.43

21.18

71

280

640

Ecuador

17.53

20.65

28.98

11

70

231

Paraguay

3.70

3.09

2.15

0.6

9

67

Venezuela

14.46

8.39

16.87

19

146

300

4.89

4.74

7.39

54

434

1,170 © T. M. Whitmore

South America

Average

Revisiting hypotheses Population and Forest Clearing

•

Positive relation between rural population and population density dynamics AND deforestation rates and deforestation rates per capita (rural). YES AND NO

What are the land use drivers?

•

Positive relation between rural population and population density dynamics AND cropland relative to pasture. YES and NO

•

Negative relation between rural population and population density AND relative agricultural intensification. YES © T. M. Whitmore

Conclusion

• Future food production: intensification and pasture expansion

• Migration • Scale • Data limitations • Policy implications

© T. M. Whitmore

In-migration of Colonists

Area of high density of rubber trees

Jarí

Fordlândia

© T. M. Whitmore

USGS

© Roger J. Harris, 2001

© Roger J. Harris, 2001

© Roger J. Harris, 2001

NASA