Proceedings of the ITRN2011

31st August – 1st September, University College Cork

TWOHIG: LARGE-SCALE DEPLOYMENT OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES

LARGE-SCALE DEPLOYMENT OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES Mr David Twohig Deputy Chief Vehicle Engineer Renault SA Abstract The Renault-Nissan Alliance has rapidly positioned itself as the world leader in proposing the all-electric EV (Electric Vehicle) as the first realistic large-scale alternative to the internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle. This paper discusses why the EV is now – in 2011 – a realistic answer to the global challenges faced by the transport industry. Renault proposes a mass-production and mass-market approach to this new market, in order to make a real environmental impact, and to offer for the first time truly affordable electric vehicles to the end customer. Renault forecasts that EVs will represent approximately 10% of European vehicle sales by 2020. To achieve this, Renault proposes a full vehicle line-up, from 2-passenger urban vehicles, through family hatchbacks and sedans to LCVs (Light Commercial Vehicles). This paper presents an overview of the range, and some of the technology used in these vehicles. Developing and deploying a suitable charging infrastructure in parallel to the vehicles is a key success factor to the successful mass roll-out of EVs. Renault, together with its key partners, is developing a breakthrough charging infrastructure. Renault is strongly supporting the development of a low-cost AC infrastructure, allowing widespread installation of charge points in public and private locations. The paper discusses some of the key challenges that remain to achieve widespread adoption of EVs, including the impacts of Government incentives, competition and consumer perception of EVs. The paper gives a brief outline of the Irish situation in wide-scale deployment of EVs, focusing on the partnership in place with the Irish government and the ESB (Electricity Supply Board). In conclusion, the paper suggests ways in which public and private bodies can further support the wide-scale deployment of EVs.

1.

EVs - Why Now?

All-electric EVs, (properly referred to as Battery Electric Vehicles or BEVs) are not a new idea. In 1900 they represented 28% of the total vehicle market [1], competing almost equally with steam and petrol engines for market share. They have continued in existence ever since in niche applications such as golf cars and electric fork-lifts. There have been several attempts to revive the idea in recent decades, notably General Motors‟ EV1 of 1996 (2345 units sold, spawning an infamous conspiracy theory “Who Killed the Electrc Car”[2]), and various low-volume series by Japanese car-makers such as the 1999 Nissan Hypermini (219 units produced). So, why does this idea that has apparently „failed‟ several times in the past re-appear now? Major corporations are now sufficiently convinced that the time is finally right to launch EVs, not as niche products, but as genuine alternatives to the ubiquitous ICE petrol or Dieselengined car, that they are prepared to invest very large sums of money in EV technology. There are 4 main reasons why :

TWOHIG: LARGE-SCALE DEPLOYMENT OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES

31st August – 1st September, University College Cork

Proceedings of the ITRN2011

- growing awareness of the impact of CO2 emissions : The consensus of world climate experts is clearly that CO2 probably has an effect on global warming. This has created an increased social awareness about CO2 emissions – accordingly, consumer behaviour is changing rapidly. Governments are also reacting – fast. The COP15 Conference resulted in an EU-level commitment to reduce CO2 emissions to 20% below 1990 levels by 2020, with pressure to increase that commitment to 30%. European governments have also agreed to European targets of 20% renewable transport by 2020. A typical example of this is Ireland‟s CO2-linked VRT (Vehicle Registration Tax) system, with a sliding scale that severely penalises cars that emit more than 150gCO2/km. This unique and powerful double effect – the „pull‟ of consumer demand and the „push‟ of Government incentives - is changing the car market in a way unimaginable 10 years ago. In order to make a real breakthrough on CO2, car makers are forced adopt another approach than Kaizen of the „traditional‟ ICE technologies. The graphic below illustrates the comparison in overall CO2 emissions between ICE, EV and hybrid technologies, depending on different methods of generating electricity :

Figure 1 : EV vs ICE vs hybrids - CO2 impacts [4]

- growing concern about oil and gas dependency Apart from the obvious fact that fossil fuel resources are, by definition, finite, the recent peak in oil prices confirms that oil/gas price instability is a major risk to the world economy.

Figure 2 : Crude Oil Price Fluctuations 1970 – 2009 [5]

Proceedings of the ITRN2011

31st August – 1st September, University College Cork

TWOHIG: LARGE-SCALE DEPLOYMENT OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES

EV technology offers a stepping-stone to a transport solution that is less dependent on oil/gas, using renewable energy sources such as solar/wind/tidal power, or (more controversially) nuclear power. Renault is an active partner in several worldwide experiments to try to demonstrate the possibility to totally eliminate transport energy dependence on oil/gas. - growing urbanisation of populations In 2007, over 50% of the world‟s population lived in cities. In 2050, it will be over 70%. This has two direct impacts on the potential EV market. First, local pollution problems caused by tailpipe emissions will be exacerbated. EVs produce zero local emissions or particulates, greatly alleviating the problem of pollution at the transport „point of use‟. The list of major world cities that already apply restrictions on ICE car use include London, Bangkok, Athens, Mexico City, Dhaka – and this list is growing rapidly. Secondly, average car journey times will continue to decrease. Already in 2010, 87% of car journeys are less than 60km per day. This figure will continue to diminish. The key perceived weakness of EVs today – driving autonomy or range – will in reality cease to be a problem.

- technological breakthroughs Finally, two relatively recent technical breakthroughs make EVs a serious proposition : Firstly, the invention of high-current semiconductor devices – notably IGBTs, or Integrated Gate Bipolar Transistors. These are very powerful transistors, capable of carrying tens to hundreds of amperes, with very low forward voltage losses. These devices started to become available in the late 1980s, and are now affordable and reliable enough for mass production applications. Coupled with low-cost and extremely powerful 16 and 32-bit RISC microcontrollers, automotive engineers are now armed with very sophisticated means to control efficient, low-cost variable frequency AC electric motors. Secondly, battery energy density has increased steadily. Driven largely by the explosion in consumer electronic demand – laptops, portable phones, digital cameras etc,, several companies – mainly Asian – have been steadily working on Lithium-ion battery technology since the late 1980s/early 1990s. The following graphic illustrates the improvements in battery cell energy density:

Figure 3 : Battery Technology - Energy Density Evolution [4]

TWOHIG: LARGE-SCALE DEPLOYMENT OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES

31st August – 1st September, University College Cork

Proceedings of the ITRN2011

With energy densities approaching 200Wh/kg, EVs with useable ranges of >130 km become physically possible while respecting reasonable vehicle size/mass/cost limits. This „crossover point‟ of journey distance and available range is basically now…in 2011.

2. A New Industrial Approach Renault and Nissan are adopting a pioneering industrial approach to EVs. All former attempts – typically GM‟s EV1 in the 1990s – approached EVs as niche, low-volume vehicles. The equation that governs costs in the car industry is simple and brutal : niche = low volume = high cost to the consumer. Therefore, instead of proposing a low-volume product to early adopters, or only to consumers with high disposal income, the Alliance is investing 4bn euro to develop and manufacture a comprehensive EV range, as well as competitive Lithium-ion batteries, which will be produced in 5 different plants worldwide. This allows us to offer vehicles at a purchase price equivalent to their petrol or Diesel equivalents (depending on market trends), once typical government incentives are taken into account, with running costs – including battery lease costs - that are comparable to the equivalent ICE vehicles, and become lower when mileage goes up. Our forecasts – and these are now starting to be echoed/confirmed by other major carmakers and industry analysts – are that EVs will represent 10% of TIV (Total Industry Volume) sales in 2020. Given the size of the global automotive market - around 70 million vehicles produced annually – this is a huge new opportunity.

3. Renault EV Line-Up Achieving large production scales means offering several vehicles. Renault is the only carmaker in the world to propose a full line-up or range of EVs:

Figure 4 : Renault EV Range These vehicles address almost 70% of the European market share. Major components such as batteries, motors and electric/electronic systems are shared in order to leverage volumes and reduce costs. The ICE version of Fluence is already a big success in Ireland with some 6,000 vehicles on Irish roads at the launch of Fluence ZE. Renault has therefore great ambitions for Fluence ZE in Ireland….

Proceedings of the ITRN2011

31st August – 1st September, University College Cork

TWOHIG: LARGE-SCALE DEPLOYMENT OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES

The following illustration shows some of the basic technology behind Fluence ZE:

Figure 5 : Fluence ZE technology

The energy storage device is a 22kWh Li-Ion battery. This battery, which weighs approximately 280kg, is packaged vertically behind the rear seats. The battery pack is aircooled. A unique feature of Fluence is that it is the world‟s first production car that allows rapid battery exchange. This means that the battery can be physically „dropped‟ out of the car in a dedicated battery change/charge station, and replaced by a fully-charged battery in less than the time it takes to fill the fuel tank in a conventional car. The motor is a wound-rotor three-phase 400V AC synchronous drive motor, capable of delivering 70kW (95CV) and 226Nm torque through a simple single-ratio reduction drive.

3.

Charging Infrastructure

Developing and deploying a suitable charging infrastructure in parallel to the vehicles is a key success factor to the successful mass roll-out of EVs. Renault, together with its key partners, is developing a breakthrough charging infrastructure based on four pillars : (i) standard charge („at home‟) : up to 3.5kW from 220V/16A AC single-phase supplies (ii) accelerated charge : up to 22kW from 220V/32A AC three-phase supplies (iii) Quick Charge : up to 43kW from 220V/63A AC three-phase supplies (iii) „Quick Drop‟ or physical battery exchange in dedicated stations

Renault is strongly supporting the development of a low-cost AC infrastructure, allowing widespread installation of charge points in public and private locations. Car-makers and electricity providers are agreed that the basic charge method will be charging at home or at

TWOHIG: LARGE-SCALE DEPLOYMENT OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES

31st August – 1st September, University College Cork

Proceedings of the ITRN2011

work using „standard‟ charge from a 220V/16A AC outlet. This gives charge times around 8 hours for a full charge in the case of a 22kWh battery. However, there is, as yet, no industrial consensus when we discuss accelerated or „Quick‟ charge. Here two basic methods are possible [6]: DC Quick Charge – sometimes referred to as „Mode 4‟ charging, the AC to DC conversion is done „off-board‟ by large conventional transformers in dedicated charging stations. This technology – strongly promoted by the Japan-based CHAdeMO® consortium - already exists, and is applied on the first-generation of recent EVs such as Mitsubishi iMiev and Nissan Leaf. The technology works very well but has two disadvantages: (i) it necessitates two charging ports on the car – one for AC standard charge, one for DC Quick Charge and, (ii) the cost of the DC Quick Charger is very high – approximately 30k€ in 2011, which will reduce in the near future to 12k€. AC Quick Charge – the charging station supplies „standard‟ AC three-phase current to the car. AC to DC conversion (including power factor correction or PFC) is carried out within the on-board charger in the car. The great advantage of this technology is dramatically reduced costs of the charging stations – costs of 2500k€ or even lower should be attainable. This will obviously greatly facilitate the widespread installation of 22kW or 43kW charging stations in public and private enterprises. A secondary benefit is that only one charge port is required on the vehicle, which will accept charge from any AC source – single- or three-phase, 16A up to 63A.

Figure 6 : Quick Charge candidate architectures The consumer benefits are obvious – low-cost infrastructure means charge stations „everywhere‟, at which the customer can recharge his/her vehicle between 30 mins and 1 hour. This will help to alleviate to a large extent the „range anxiety‟ that is currently a major brake to large-scale deployment of EVs. So, why is there not an industry consensus around AC Quick Charge? First, it is extremely technically challenging to realise industrially. The basic engineering principle is simple and has been known for some years – it involves using the inductance of the motor stator, and a fast-switching transistor bridge to make a buck-boost convertor that is a type of SwitchedMode Power Supply similar to the chargers used for portable PCs, but on a much larger scale. But the details of how to do this – successfully managing power factor correction, electromagnetic compatibility, and ensuring full safety in all reasonably foreseeable failure

Proceedings of the ITRN2011

31st August – 1st September, University College Cork

TWOHIG: LARGE-SCALE DEPLOYMENT OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES

modes – are far from simple. Renault has been working on this challenge since 1997, and we have recently made several major technical breakthroughs that make this technology feasible and cost-effective for vehicles available to the general public from 2012. By definition, a charging infrastructure cannot be manufacturer-specific, it must be capable of being standardised – therefore we are actively working with other car manufacturers and major suppliers to drive forward a future European-standard AC charging infrastructure. We are also actively working with key infrastructure partners – including the ESB here in Ireland - to push forward the deployment of this technology. It is true that we will see a confrontation in global standards. Japan is already at least partially committed to the CHAdeMO DC standard. The USA is inclined towards DC, while Europe, as well as other key countries like Korea and China are studying both solutions. The next 10 years will see standards stabilise and (as always) the best technology will survive.

4.

The Challenges

There remain several challenges to widespread adoption of EVs. At first, costs – especially battery costs - are higher than conventional ICE parts. It will take several years for the market to grow sufficiently for volumes to increase and costs to decrease naturally. Government incentives therefore remain a short-term key lever in order to bridge the gap and to allow EVs to establish themselves in the market. However, the financial crisis has led to several governments reducing the value and/or duration of incentives. This is fortunately NOT the case in Ireland, where the government recently re-instated the Low Carbon Vehicle grant to a level of €5000. Together with VRT exemption, the incentives to EV ownership in Ireland are among the highest in Europe. Competition is fierce – Renault-Nissan are not alone. Nor do we want to be. To have real volumes, and to establish a real technology push, we need and welcome competition. We are confident that we have a technology lead of two to three years, but we know that very serious challengers are coming to the market, from Germany, China and Korea. The battle will be intense, and hopefully the winner will be the end customer. Finally, there is still an image problem. People worry about range and safety. The EV has a negative image, not helped by older stereotypes such as milk floats and golf carts, and further damaged by more modern sub-EVs like the Reva G-Wiz, which are clearly not perceived as „real cars‟ by the general public. The most powerful way to overcome this reticence is by practical demonstration. Besides illustrating the obvious Unique Selling Points of EVs – near-total silence, powerful and fluid acceleration – test drives demonstrate that there are no major compromises – in quality, comfort or equipment. To offer this experience to the greatest possible number of potential customers, Renault will have a demonstration fleet of 100 electric vehicles in Ireland before the end of the year operating on public roads. In the last 12 months over 1,000 potential EV customers have test driven Renault EVs through a roadshow which took place in late 2010 and more recently through the ZE Tour which was located in Cork and Maynooth. 5. Ireland and EVs – Renault’s approach Ireland is one of the pioneering EV countries – along with Israel, Denmark and Portugal. Due to its relatively small size and population concentration around 5 urban centres, Ireland is ideally suited for the introduction and real-scale testing of electric vehicles. Ireland also has the advantage of having had a very pro-active government policy for a number or years. Renault Ireland has been closely involved in discussions with all the active partners in Ireland – notably the ESB - to advance the situation. The parent company – Renault France – is there to provide the technical support and co-ordination of European and global strategy. We also have close communication on a global level with our colleagues in Nissan to ensure a coherent approach within the Alliance.

TWOHIG: LARGE-SCALE DEPLOYMENT OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES

31st August – 1st September, University College Cork

Proceedings of the ITRN2011

As a result, Ireland is well ahead of most other European countries. Although there are as yet very few EVs on Irish roads, 100 charging points (Home & Public) are already installed. We will launch Fluence ZE and Kangoo ZE before the end of this year, with over 100 reservations already taken. 6. Next Steps We have already mentioned the importance of public support in terms of incentives, and how this is necessary to bridge the short-term cost gap between EVs and their ICE counterparts. Government aid is also a key factor for rapid deployment of the charging infrastructure. Installation of charge spots in private or semi-private locations – houses, service stations, supermarkets – is relatively simple. But installation of charge stops in public locations – streets, public parking spaces, shared housing – requires national and local government support, not only in the direct form of financial aid, but also indirectly in standards and policy co-ordination. Finally, there is a clear role for private enterprise and academic institutions. Ireland is a great example of a country that has little or no traditional industrial heritage. However, it has a recent industrial and technological legitimacy in software and electronic development. Together with the structural advantages identified above, this gives Irish industries, in partnership with academic institutions, the opportunity to propose innovative solutions to many of the challenges ahead in terms of advanced on-board and off-board electronics, telematics and implementation of future intelligent charging infrastructures or „smart grids‟. References [1] M.B.Schiffer, Looking Back : Why the Electric Vehicle Lost Market Share, IEEE Journal Potentials, Vol 19, Issue 5. [2] “Who Killed The Electric Car?” documentary film, copyright Sony Pictures Home Entertainment. [4] Source: internal Renault SA data. [5] WTRG Economics website www.wtrg.com [6] IEC (International Electrotechnical Commission), TC 69 standard IEC 61851-1, Electric vehicle conductive charging system. See www.iec.ch/etech/2011/etech_0411/tc-1.htm