Labour market profile – West Midlands 1. Introduction 1.1. This profile shows how the labour market is projected to change in West Midlands between 2006 and 20201. It uses employment projections data produced by Cambridge Econometrics which are based on a public sector austerity scenario. The projections were generated in July 2009 in anticipation of the forthcoming Government spending cuts. 1.2. The public sector austerity scenario assumes that public spending will fall year-on-year through to 2013, with the sharpest fall in 2011 (by 2 percent), which will result in employment contracting. It assumes that spending will rise again in 2015/2016 but growth will be modest. 1.3. As well as drawing on employment projections produced by Cambridge Econometrics, the paper draws on sub-national population projections produced by the Office for National Statistics and our own projections on qualification levels2. 1.4. The analysis is focused around three points in time3: Pre-recession - 2006 is taken as a snapshot of the labour market before the recession; Post-recession - 2010 is taken as a snapshot of the labour market as the recession ended; and Long-term - 2020 is taken as a snapshot of the labour market in the future to give an idea of longer term trends. 1.5. This paper uses the following indicators to measure labour market supply and demand: Number of jobs in the workplace by occupation; Population change and supply of working age people; Residence employment and worklessness levels; Job density by occupation; and Residence qualification levels. 1.6. There are a few caveats to bear in mind. This paper looks at total employment in the 1

We have also produced labour market profiles for Local Authorities in the West Midlands and a regional profile which draws together the key findings from these. 2 There are no robust projections in place to give an indication of what qualification levels will be in the future. As a proxy measure, we have projected what qualification levels would be if current trends continued. We did this by calculating the average annual rate of change from 2004 to 2009 in the number of people qualified at each NVQ level and applying this to future years. The qualification projections are the least robust as they are based on a fairly short term trend. Also the data was taken from the Annual Population Survey rather than being a count of people with each qualification. 3 The time points we chose were restricted by dates that the projections were available for: 2001, 2006, 2010, 2020, 2026 and 2031.

1

workplace rather than new jobs created. Many of the jobs in the workplace will already be filled by people so the figures don’t show which occupations will offer the most new jobs in the future. 1.7. Also, the paper does not take into account ‘replacement’ demand for jobs which arises as people retire from the workforce. Some occupations have an older workforce than others so job opportunities will arise as they replace retiring staff. Therefore, it shouldn’t be assumed that occupations with the most employment will have the most new jobs or that replacement demand will be the same across all occupations. 1.8. For further information on the methodology used, please refer to the methodology paper. Local Authority rankings for the key indicators can be found in Annex 1. 2. Overview of key issues 2.1. In summary, the key labour market issues for the West Midlands are as follows: There will be 128 thousand fewer jobs in the West Midlands’ workplace in 2020 than in 2006. These jobs will be lost between 2006 and 2010. There will also be 45 thousand more working age people in 2020 than 2006. This will mean there are not enough jobs to keep all working age people in employment (76 jobs per 100 working age residents in 2020). This will be five jobs less per 100 working age residents than in 2006 (81 jobs per 100 working age residents). The West Midlands needed 115 thousand additional jobs to employ those that wanted to work in 2006 and is projected to need 179 thousand additional jobs to employ all those that want to work in 2020. There will be 176,000 more workless residents in the West Midlands in 2020 than in 2006. The West Midlands’ employment rate will fall from 67 percent in 2006 to 56 percent in 2020. The occupational structure of the labour market will change. Higher skilled occupations4 will still account for the most employment in 2020 (44 percent compared to 41 percent in 2006), and will be more resilient to job losses. Skilled trade occupations will lose the most jobs between 2006 and 2020 (-115 thousand jobs). Personal services occupations will gain the most jobs between 2006 and 2020 (+69 thousand jobs). 4

This includes: managerial and senior professional, professional, and associate professional and technical occupations.

2

There is a ‘mismatch’ between skills supply and demand. In 2006 there were 303 thousand more higher skilled jobs than higher skilled residents in the West Midlands. But if the supply of higher skilled residents continues to increase (at the same rate), the number of higher skilled residents will broadly match the number of higher skilled jobs by 2020. The number of unskilled 16-64 year olds in 2006 was nearly double that needed to fill all unskilled jobs in the West Midlands. By 2020, there is still projected to be nearly twice the number of unskilled 16-64 year olds needed to fill unskilled jobs in the West Midlands. 3. Fewer jobs in the workplace 3.1. The West Midlands’ economy will contract between 2006 and 2020 - losing 128 thousand workplace jobs on balance (see Figure 1). These jobs will be lost between 2006 and 2010. Although the West Midlands will gain jobs between 2010 and 2020, it won’t enough to offset those lost. Figure 1

West Midlands’ workplace jobs by occupation 3,000 Total = 2,666

Jobs (thousands)

2,500

305.2

287.7

2,000

1,500

175 176.1 387.1

246

1,000 500 0

354.8

Elementary occupations

Total = 2,515

Total = 2,538

280.4

250.5

220.2 181 224.4

196.2 188.7

304

271.8

Process plant & machine operators Sales and customer service occupations Personal service occupations

261.9

Skilled trades occupations

377.8

Administrative clerical & secretarial occupations Associate professional and technical occupations Professional occupations

291.1 344.5

244.9

342.1

305

333.1

392

364.2

413.5

Pre-recession Post-recession (2006) (2010)

Long-term (2020)

Managers and senior officials

Source: Cambridge Econometrics employment projections – austerity scenario

3.2. All but three West Midlands’ authorities will lose jobs over 2006 and 2020. Cannock Chase (+1,800 jobs) and Telford and Wrekin (+400 jobs) will be the only two authorities to gain jobs over this period. Tamworth will offer the same number of jobs in 2020 as in 2006. Birmingham will lose the most jobs of all West Midlands’ authorities over this period (-38 thousand).

3

4. Lower skilled occupations most vulnerable to job losses 4.1. As the number of workplace jobs contract, the West Midlands’ occupational structure will change. Over 2006 and 2020 lower skilled occupations will lose the most jobs in the West Midlands (see Figure 2). Figure 2

West Midlands change in workplace jobs Pre-recession (2006) to post-recession (2010) Post-recession (2010) to long-term (2020) Pre-recession (2006) to post-recession (2020)

Change in jobs (thousands)

100 50 0 -50 -100

Skilled trades occupations

Process plant & machine operators

Elementary occupations

Professional occupations

Sales and customer service occupations

Administrative clerical & secretarial occupations

Managers and senior officials

Associate professional and technical occupations

Personal service occupations

-150

Source: Cambridge Econometrics employment projections – austerity scenario

4.2. Skilled trade occupations will be hit the hardest - losing 115 thousand jobs in total. Process plant & machine operators and elementary occupations will also lose jobs over this period (-92 thousand and -55 thousand respectively). 4.3. Skilled trade and process plant & machine operator occupations will lose most jobs between 2006 and 2010, followed by a few more between 2010 and 2020. Elementary occupations will lose jobs between 2006 and 2010 and even more between 2010 and 2020. 4.4. In 2020, sales and customer services will offer the least jobs in the West Midlands (189 thousand jobs) and will account for 7 percent of workplace employment.

4

5. Higher skilled occupations5 more resilient to job losses 5.1. Higher skilled occupations will be more resilient to job losses over 2006 and 2020. Professional occupations will lose nine thousand jobs on balance, whereas managerial and senior official occupations (+22 thousand jobs) and associate professional and technical occupations (+23 thousand jobs) will gain jobs. All higher skilled occupations will lose jobs over 2006 and 2010 but will gain jobs over 2010 and 2020. 5.2. Overall, this will mean that higher skilled occupations will account for a larger share of employment in the West Midlands in 2020 (44 percent) than in 2006 (41 percent). 6. Personal service occupations will expand the most 6.1. Personal service occupations6 will gain the most workplace jobs over 2006 and 2020, resulting in 69 thousand new jobs being created (48 thousand jobs between 2006 and 2010, and 21 thousand between 2010 and 2020). Over a fifth of these jobs will be based in Birmingham. By 2020 personal service occupations will account for ten percent of West Midlands’ employment – three percentage points more than in 2006. 6.2. Administrative, clerical and secretarial occupations will also expand between 2006 and 2010 in the West Midlands, before contracting between 2010 and 2020. In 2020, there will be 16 thousand more jobs in administrative, clerical and secretarial occupations than in 2006. In total, administrative, clerical and secretarial occupations will offer 262 thousand jobs in 2020, accounting for 10 percent of the West Midlands’ employment. 6.3. Sales and customer service occupations will also expand between 2006 and 2010, and again between 2010 and 2020 in the West Midlands. In 2020, there will be 14 thousand more jobs in sales and customer service occupations than in 2006. Sales and customer services occupations will account for seven percent of West Midlands’ employment in 2020. 6.4. These trends vary slightly for each local authority district.

5

This includes: managers and senior officials, professionals and associate professionals and technical occupations. A full definition of the jobs this includes is available at http://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutstatistics/classifications/current/soc2010/soc2010-structure.xls 6 Personal service occupations includes the following jobs: nursery nurses and assistants, childminders and related occupations, playworkers, teaching assistants, educational support assistants, veterinary nurses, pest control officers, animal care services, nursing auxiliaries and assistants, ambulance staff, dental nurses, houseparents and residential wardens, care workers and home carers, senior care workers, care escorts, undertakers, mortuary and crematorium assistants

5

7. The working age population is expected to grow significantly 7.1. The West Midlands’ population is projected to grow between 2006 and 2020 (see Figure 3). Population growth will be driven by more people moving into than out of the West Midlands over this period, and the number of births outstripping the number of deaths. Figure 3

Age profile of West Midlands’ population

Population (thousands)

7,000 6,000 5,000

Pension age 1,294.5

=

Working age 3,300.7

Working age 3,322.4

=

Children 1057.1

Children 1,056.8

Children 1,133.4

=

Pre-recession (2006)

Post-recession (2010)

Long-term (2020)

Pension age 1,027.3

Pension age 1,102.3

Working age 3277.9

+1.7% annual change

4,000 3,000

2,000 1,000 0

+0.1% annual change

+0.5% annual change

Source: ONS 2006 mid-year estimates, ONS 2008-based sub-national population projections

7.2. All sections of the population will grow over this period in the West Midlands. Overall, working age people will account for a smaller proportion of the population in 2020 (57.8%) than in 2006 (61.1%). Proportionally speaking, the working age population will increase most in Warwick (annual change +0.7%) and will decrease most in South Staffordshire (annual change - 0.7%). 7.3. Malvern Hills will have the smallest proportion of working age people between 2006 and 2020 of all West Midlands authorities (56.3% in 2006 falling to 50.6% in 2020). Warwick will have the greatest proportion of working age people (64.4% in 2006 falling to 62.2% in 2020). 7.4. These population projections (produced by the Office for National Statistics) are based on current demographic trends and do not take into account changes in the economy7. This means that the working age population could be smaller than

7

This is s a different set of assumptions to those used to project future employment. The employment projections are based on a public sector austerity scenario which assumes that public sector spending will fall which will have a knock on effect on the economy. The population projections assume current trends will continue and do not take into account public sector spending cuts.

6

projected below, particularly if people move out of the West Midlands as the economy is projected to decline. 8. Enough jobs to keep people employed? 8.1. If the projections are correct8, as the number of available jobs contracts, it will become harder for working age people to secure employment. This issue will be further exacerbated by an increase in the state pension age. As people work for longer, fewer opportunities will arise from replacement demand (created when people retire). 8.2. Figure 4 shows the number of jobs per 100 working age residents over 2006 to 2020. This shows that in 2006 there were not enough jobs in West Midlands to employ all of its residents (81 per 100 working age people). Although, West Midlands’ residents can commute to other areas for work, the lack of available jobs is clearly a barrier to addressing economic inactivity. In 2009, 24.6 percent of the West Midlands’ residents aged 16-64 were economically inactive9, which was above the UK average (23.5 percent). Figure 4

Jobs per 100 working age residents

West Midlands’ jobs per 100 working age residents 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

Elementary occupations

Total = 81 Total = 76

Total = 76

9 5 5

8 7 5 7

12

9

8 6 6 7 8

8

9

11

10

10

9

10

12

11

12

Pre-recession (2006)

Post-recession (2010)

Future (2020)

9

8 11

Process plant & machine operators Sales & customer service occupations Personal service occupations Skilled trades occupations Administrative clerical & secretarial occupations Associate professional and technical occupations Professional occupations Managers and senior officials

Source: Cambridge Econometrics employment projections – austerity scenario, ONS 2006 mid-year estimates and 2008 based population projections

8.3. This situation is projected to worsen over 2006 and 2020. Overall there will be five fewer jobs per 100 working age people in 2020 than there were in 2006 in the West Midlands.

8

The projections were produced by the Office for National Statistics and are the best available. This group includes people that are not in employment, and are either not seeking work or not available to start work. 9

7

8.4. Between 2006 and 2020, North Warwickshire will be the only Local Authority in the West Midlands to have more jobs than working age residents (rising from 103 jobs per 100 working age residents in 2006 to 108 per 100 working age residents in 2020). All other Local Authorities will have fewer jobs than working age residents. South Staffordshire had the least jobs per 100 working age residents in 2006 (56) and Nuneaton and Bedworth had the least jobs per 100 working age residents in 2020 (56). 9. Fewer jobs will be available in a number of occupations 9.1. Figure 4 shows that the following occupations will lose jobs per 100 working age people between 2006 and 2020: skilled trades, process plant and machine operators, and elementary occupations. The following occupations will gain jobs per 100 working age residents: personal services, and associate professional and technical occupations. All other occupations will offer the same number of jobs in 2020 as in 2006. 10. Nearly half the jobs will be in higher skilled occupations 10.1. Higher skilled occupations will offer the most jobs per 100 working age people in 2020 as in 2006. These occupations (managerial and senior official, professional, and associate professional and technical) will provide 34 jobs per 100 working age people in 2020. This is slightly more than in 2006 (33 jobs per 100 working age people). 10.2. In contrast, sales and customer services, and process plant and machine operator occupations will offer the least jobs per 100 working age people in 2020 (6 jobs per 100 working age people for each occupation). Skilled trade occupations will experience the biggest drop in jobs per 100 working age people, falling from 12 jobs per 100 working age in 2006 to eight jobs per 100 working age in 2020. 11. The employment rate will fall 11.1. As jobs become scarcer within the West Midlands between 2006 and 2020, the employment rate is projected to drop. Employment will contract most between 2006 and 2010, when the working age employment rate will fall from 75 percent to 70 percent. Between 2010 and 2020, the employment rate will remain stable at 70 percent (see Figure 5). 11.2. Birmingham’s employment rate is projected to be the lowest of all Local Authorities in the West Midlands between 2006 and 2020 (falling from 64 percent in 2006 to 56 percent in 2020). Bromsgrove had the highest employment rate (93 percent) in 2006. South Staffordshire is projected to have the highest employment rate (93 percent) in 2020.

8

Figure 5

West Midlands’ population by work status

Working age population (thousands)

3500 3000

Workless (25% of 807.4 working age)

Workless (30% of 984.4 working age)

Workless (30% of 983.2 working age)

Employed (75% of 2,470 working age)

Employed (70% of 2,316 working age)

Employed (70% of 2,339 working age)

2500 2000

1500 1000 500 0

Pre-recession (2006)

Post-recession (2010)

Long-term (2020)

Source: Cambridge Econometrics employment projections – austerity scenario, ONS 2006 mid-year estimates and 2008 based population projections

11.3. As employment falls, worklessness10 will rise. 12. Although not all those without work require a job 12.1. For context, Figure 6 distinguishes between the proportion of 16-64 year olds that were workless and wanted to work11 (12.2 percent) in 2009 and those that were workless but didn’t want to work12 (19.6 percent). This shows that although 31.8 percent of 16-64 year olds were workless, only 12.2 percent of 16-64 year olds didn’t have a job but wanted one.

10

We have adopted the broadest definition of worklessness, which includes anyone not holding a job. This does not distinguish between those that want to work and those that don’t want to work. 11 This includes people that are economically active but don’t have a job, and those that are economically inactive but want a job. 12 This includes people that are not seeking work, and those that are unavailable to start work and don’t want to work.

9

Figure 6

Proportion of 16-64 year olds

West Midlands’ 16-64 year olds by economic activity level 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

Employed Workless and do not want a job 2,426

2,427

2,416

2,402

2,343

Workless and want a job or are unemployed

681

669

684

675

673

Workless 16-64 year olds

284

314

322

358

420

Jan 2005- Jan 2006- Jan 2007- Jan 2008- Jan 2009Dec 2005 Dec 2006 Dec 2007 Dec 2008 Dec 2009 Source: Annual Population Survey

13. A significant oversupply of labour 13.1. If this split between workless people in terms of those that do and don’t want to work is applied to the 2020 projection, the oversupply of labour is less than first anticipated, but remains significant. This shows there were 310 thousand workless people that wanted to work in 2006 rising to 378 thousand by 2020. 13.2. This means that the West Midlands needed 115 thousand additional jobs to employ all of the people that wanted to work in 2006 13. The West Midlands is projected to need 179 thousand additional jobs to employ all people that want to work in 2020. 13.3. There are a number of reasons for people not wanting to enter into the labour market and people can contribute to the labour market without entering paid employment. For example, those caring for young children are raising the future workforce for the economy, but are classed as workless. Also, those in training are developing their skills to enable them to enter into the labour market in the future, but are also classed as workless. In addition, those who cannot enter work because they are: caring for elderly or disabled relatives, or are ill are classed as workless. Therefore, it is unlikely that we would ever reach a point where all working age people wanted a job.

13

This figure doesn’t take into account people filling jobs from outside of the West Midlands. It just compares the number of jobs available in the workplace to the number of working age people that want to work. People that want to work are defined as those that are economically active and those that are economically inactive but want a job.

10

14. Whilst the demand for unskilled workers is reducing, the number of unskilled workers is increasing 14.1. Figure 7 shows trends in the highest qualification held by West Midlands’ residents aged 16-6414. We deem those without qualifications to be unskilled and those qualified to NVQ level 4+ to have higher skill levels. 14.2. Over 2004 to 2009, the proportion of 16-64 year olds without qualifications living in the West Midlands decreased from 18.5 percent to 16.2 percent. In 2009, Wolverhampton had the highest proportion of residents with no qualifications (23.6 percent), and Lichfield had the smallest proportion of residents with no qualifications (6.5 percent). 14.3. Figure 7 also shows that the proportion of 16-64 year olds qualified to NVQ level 4+ increased from 22.7 percent in 2004 to 24.8 percent in 2009. In 2009, Warwick had the highest proportion of residents qualified to NVQ level 4+ (39.5 percent) and Cannock Chase had the smallest proportion of residents qualified to NVQ level 4+ (12.8 percent). Figure 7

West Midlands’ 16-64 population by highest qualification held 3,500

3,000

585

555

267

282

508

504

603

585

260

264

258

256

2,000

483

479

474

473

1,500

565

569

569

588

589

523

1,000

474

478

492

505

532

525

741

754

786

812

831

850

2,500 Thousands

570

582

500

No qualifications Other qualifications NVQ1 only NVQ2 only NVQ3 only NVQ4+

0 Jan 2004- Jan 2005- Jan 2006- Jan 2007- Jan 2008- Jan 2009Dec 2004 Dec 2005 Dec 2006 Dec 2007 Dec 2008 Dec 2009

Source: Annual Population Survey

14

This data is only available for the 16-64 age group. Elsewhere in the report we define working age as men aged 16-64 and women aged 16-59.

11

15. There is a ‘mismatch’ between skills supply and demand 15.1. Figure 8 shows the skills supply in the West Midlands in 2006 compared to skills demand. It also shows how skills supply and demand will compare in 2020 if current trends in qualification levels continue15. Figure 8

Mapping skill supply against labour demand Labour demand

1,400

Labour suppy

1,200

Thousands

1,000

1,124 1,151

1,089

800 786

600 582

400

465 305

200

251

0 2006 higher skilled employment

2006 unskilled employment

2020 higher skilled employment

2020 unskilled employment

Source: Cambridge Econometrics employment projections and Annual Population Survey – residence based

15.2. Figure 8 shows that there were more higher skilled jobs in the West Midlands in 2006 than residents with higher skills. This suggests that West Midlands’ residents missed out on some of the jobs on offer locally because they didn’t have the right skills. As a result, these jobs were filled by people commuting into the area. 15.3. Commuting to work does not fit with the sustainable communities agenda as most people travel to work by car16. Car journeys create pollution which is harmful to the natural environment. In 2007 vehicles created 30 percent of all carbon dioxide emitted in the West Midlands17. The UK has a legally binding target under the Kyoto Protocol to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases by 12.5 per cent below 1990 levels by 2012. Reducing vehicle emissions would help to meet this target.

15

This Figure is an approximation. The data was calculated by applying the average annual rate of change at each qualification level (over 2004 to 2009) to future years. Therefore it does not take into account population projections. 16 Between October to December 2009 79 percent of people living in the West Midlands travelled to work by car. 17 Department for Energy and Climate Change

12

15.4. If West Midlands’ residents were accessing local employment opportunities, commuting would reduce which would help to cut carbon dioxide emissions and protect the natural environment. One way of enabling this would be to upskill residents in the West Midlands. 15.5. However, there is a danger that as residents upskill and secure higher skilled employment, they leave the West Midlands to live in areas which are perceived as being more desirable. Higher skilled workers are more inclined to commute for work than lower skilled workers as they can afford to live in more expensive areas. 15.6. In 2006, there were also more unskilled people than unskilled jobs in the West Midlands. The lack of unskilled jobs is further exacerbated by skilled people filling some of the unskilled jobs. Given the choice, employers may decide to employ a skilled person over an unskilled person for an unskilled job. This is problematic as it indicates there are not enough entry level jobs to enable unskilled people to engage with the labour market. 15.7. If current trends continue, by 2020 the number of higher skilled residents will broadly match the number of higher skilled jobs. The number of 16-64 year olds with no qualifications will continue to outstrip the number of unskilled jobs available. 16. Skills imported from other areas 16.1. Figure 9 shows which jobs were on offer in the workplace in 2006 by occupation per 100 working age residents, compared to the jobs held per 100 working age residents living in the West Midlands. It also looks at how this will change up to 2020. This helps to indicate where skills mismatches are and will occur in. 16.2. Figure 9 indicates that in 2006 residents will only commute for work in the following occupations: administrative and secretarial, personal services, and sales and customer services occupations. The number of residents employed in elementary occupations will match the number of workplace jobs available in 2006. Residents will miss out on jobs in all other occupations as there will be more workplace jobs available than residents working in them.

13

Figure 9

Jobs per 100 working age

West Midlands’ workplace employment against residence employment 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

81 9 9 5 5 12

75

76

9 7 6 6 9 9

8 7 5 7 9 9

70

9

10

10

9

9

8 6 5 6 8 8 9 9

12

10

11

11

8

11

76 8 6 6 7 8 8

Elementary occupations

70

11

8 5 6 6 7 7 10

10

10

12

12

Process plant & machine operators Sales and customer service occupations Personal service occupations Skilled trades occupations Administrative clerical & secretarial occupations Associate professional and technical occupations Professional occupations Managers and senior officials

Source: Cambridge Econometrics, Office for National Statistics

16.3. By 2020, the number of residents employed in the following occupations will match the number of workplace jobs available: administrative, clerical & secretarial, skilled trades, process plant and machine operators and elementary occupations. Residents will miss out on jobs in all other occupations as there will be more workplace jobs available than residents working in them.

14

17. Conclusions 17.1. Overall workplace employment levels will fall, and the working age population will grow in the West Midlands. This will mean there will be fewer jobs available per 100 working age people. 17.2. The occupational structure of the labour market will shift. The following occupations will gain jobs: personal services, sales and customer services, administrative, clerical and secretarial, associate professional and technical and managerial and senior official. All other occupations will contract, with skilled trades losing the most jobs. Higher skilled occupations (managers and senior officials, and professionals) will continue to offer the most employment. 17.3. There is a mismatch between the supply and demand of skills in the West Midlands’ labour market. The West Midlands has too many unskilled residents and not enough higher skilled residents for the jobs available in the workplace. This means that people commute into the West Midlands to fill higher skilled jobs. 17.4. The number of higher skilled residents in the West Midlands is increasing, and by 2020 the number of higher skilled residents will broadly match the number of higher skilled roles available. The number of unskilled residents will fall but there will still be too many unskilled people in relation to the number of unskilled jobs available. This means it will be even harder for workless residents to enter the labour market. 17.5. As opportunities in the labour market decrease, worklessness is expected to increase. Although worklessness will increase, not all workless people are able to work. 18. Follow on research 18.1. The West Midlands Regional Observatory (WMRO) is undertaking research to identify which skills will be needed in the future. The paper is called ‘skills to support transformational change’ and will be published at the end of October. This will help policy-makers understand which skills they need to develop for new jobs. 18.2. The skills team at Advantage West Midlands are also working towards developing skills to create new jobs in the West Midlands. This will help to address job shortages in the wider West Midlands.

15

Annex 1. Local Authority Name

Birmingham Bromsgrove Cannock Chase Coventry Dudley East Staffordshire Herefordshire Lichfield Malvern Hills Newcastle-underLyme North Warwickshire Nuneaton and Bedworth Redditch Rugby Sandwell Shropshire Solihull South Staffordshire Stafford Staffordshire Moorlands Stoke-on-Trent Stratford-on-Avon Tamworth Telford and Wrekin Walsall Warwick Wolverhampton Worcester Wychavon Wyre Forest

Local Authority Rankings Workplace jobs (1=most)

1 25 26 2 4 15 11 21 30 18

Proportion of working age residents (1=highest) 10 23 6 5 21 16 29 20 30 8

24

Population (1=biggest) Working Total age

Annual population growth (1=highest) Total Working population age population 6 3 9 12 18 16 4 2 25 17 8 7 14 22 5 10 15 23 26 18

Work status Employme nt rate (1=highest) 30 1 13 24 21 22 5 15 4 27

Workless rate (1=lowest) 30 1 13 24 21 22 5 15 4 27

Working age qualification levels NVQ level No 4+ qualifications (1=highest) (1=lowest) 1 1 17 26 27 13 2 6 4 5 19 14 7 12 24 19 21 25 23 9

Workplace jobs per 100 working age (1=most) Total Higher Lower jobs skilled skilled jobs jobs 11 8 11 24 21 23 27 28 28 15 11 21 23 23 25 5 7 5 13 18 3 20 20 16 19 14 12 26 26 26

1 26 22 2 3 18 10 23 29 13

1 25 23 3 2 18 10 21 29 13

11

30

30

29

26

6

6

30

23

1

10

1

21

12

15

15

11

15

19

19

25

17

28

27

30

19 20 3 5 9 28 13 29

2 19 15 28 24 17 13 22

27 25 4 5 9 19 14 24

27 26 4 4 9 19 14 22

28 3 13 12 10 30 7 27

29 4 5 20 8 30 14 27

8 14 29 17 10 11 9 12

8 14 29 17 10 11 9 12

28 22 8 3 5 18 13 20

24 30 3 8 11 15 18 26

6 12 14 21 4 30 8 29

5 13 17 22 3 30 6 29

14 9 18 13 6 29 8 27

8 14 27 10 7 12 6 16 17 23

9 27 3 7 26 1 14 4 25 18

7 17 28 11 6 12 8 20 16 20

7 16 28 11 6 12 8 24 17 20

23 2 19 20 24 1 22 17 16 21

19 6 25 21 13 1 11 9 24 28

25 2 7 20 28 23 26 16 3 18

25 2 7 20 28 23 26 16 3 18

10 12 29 14 11 6 9 16 15 26

7 26 29 10 2 21 4 22 20 16

18 3 22 9 17 2 10 7 16 25

15 4 24 9 16 1 12 2 19 25

19 2 22 15 20 4 17 10 7 24

16