Jubilant Life Sciences
May 25, 2016
CMO, Radiopharma drive Pharma, Volume dips in LSI: Jubilant’s net sales declined by 2% YoY to Rs15bn while EBITDA grew by 29% to Rs3.2bn in Q4FY16. The company’s overall financial performance except LSI sales were in line with our estimates as Jubilant has been benefitting from volume and price rise in Radiopharma products along with gradual ramp up in CMO business. With growing consolidation among channel partners and price competitions, US generic revenues declines both in Q4FY16 and FY16. LSI revenues were impacted due to lower price of pyridines (due to pass on benefits of lower price of crude oil derivatives), lower demand of pyridines and Acetates (Acetyles) from global agro‐chemical customers and declining demand in Nutritional business. The Pharma division sales grew by 10% YoY, while LSI’s business declined by 14% as lower solvent prices (derivatives of Crude oil) drove down both input prices as well as end products. Overall, Jubilant maintained sequential EBITDA margin of Pharma at 27‐30% and LSi margin ate 15‐16% in Q4FY16.
Expected launch, In‐license products to ensure Radiopharma growth: With expected launch of Rubifill along with array of new products in API, we expect Jubilant to drive revenue CAGR of 9.5% in FY17E and FY18E. While the launch of its 505(b)(2) application on Rubifill could be delayed to Q3FY17E, we expect existing suppliers contract to continue its growth in Radiopharma business in FY17E. The capacity expansion of API plants will open opportunity in newly genericised API products in US, which will also benefit in higher EBITDA margin.
Valuations‐Maintain ‘BUY’, retain TP at Rs578: With growing utilisation of CMO plants and flexibility in PPES business, we expect Jubilant’s sales growth to get further boost in FY17E and FY18E. The full benefit of CMO, however, will be realised in two years as guided by management. Lower crude and ethanol prices to maintain 15‐16% LSI margin in FY16‐18E with Pharma to maintain EBITDA margin at 30% on higher Radiopharma sales. We maintain ‘BUY’ and retain TP at Rs578.
Surajit Pal
[email protected] +91‐22‐66322259 Rating Price Target Price Implied Upside Sensex Nifty
BUY Rs355 Rs578 62.8% 25,305 7,749
(Prices as on May 24, 2016) Trading data Market Cap. (Rs bn) Shares o/s (m) 3M Avg. Daily value (Rs m) Major shareholders Promoters Foreign Domestic Inst. Public & Other Stock Performance (%) 1M 6M Absolute (5.8) (14.9) Relative (3.8) (13.0) How we differ from Consensus EPS (Rs) PL Cons. 2017 32.2 29.7 2018 34.6 37.2
54.9 154.5 64 54.02% 15.12% 0.11% 31.00% 12M 107.7 117.2 % Diff. 8.2 ‐6.9
Price Performance (RIC: JULS.BO, BB: JOL IN)
Key financials (Y/e March) Revenues (Rs m) Growth (%) EBITDA (Rs m) PAT (Rs m) EPS (Rs) Growth (%) Net DPS (Rs)
2015 57,761 1.0 6,392 (97) (0.6) (102.9) 3.0
2016 57,005 (1.3) 11,759 4,140 26.0 (4,385.9) 3.0
2017E 62,472 9.6 13,556 5,127 32.2 23.8 3.0
2018E 68,187 9.1 15,001 5,519 34.6 7.6 3.0
2015 11.1 (0.4) 3.4 1.7 15.7 (585.7) 2.3 0.8
2016 20.6 15.4 9.6 1.6 7.7 13.7 1.9 0.8
2017E 21.7 15.8 11.3 1.5 6.7 11.0 1.6 0.8
2018E 22.0 14.4 11.1 1.3 5.8 10.3 1.4 0.8
(Rs) 500 400 300 200 100
Source: Bloomberg
May‐16
Mar‐16
Jan‐16
Nov‐15
Sep‐15
Jul‐15
May‐15
0
Profitability & Valuation EBITDA margin (%) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV / sales (x) EV / EBITDA (x) PE (x) P / BV (x) Net dividend yield (%) Source: Company Data; PL Research
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. and/or its associates (the 'Firm') does and/or seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Please refer to important disclosures and disclaimers at the end of the report
Q4FY16 Result Update
Sales, margin miss; New business in API, CMO to drive growth
Jubilant Life Sciences
Key takeways from Conference call
Annually, JOL drew major growth in Specialty Pharma and API at 29% and 13%, respectively. CMO business is slowly ramping up with better capacity utilisaiton at 65‐70% currently. CMO business grew at 27% though management expect its normalised revenues of US$140m along with higher utilisation to take 2‐3 years
LSI business continue to disappoint as specialty chemicals and LSC business declined by 10% and 19% respectively, mainly on account of lower input price driving the end product prices lower in global markets. Nutritional business also grew flattish on the back of sluggish demand scenario in global market
JOL accounted one‐off impairment costs of Rs530m and Rs590m in Amortisation expenditure in Q4FY16 and FY16 respectively. otherwise, JOL’s quarterly amortisation costs are Rs200‐250m
Management guided launch of Rubi‐Fill by Q4FY17E as it received positive response from USFDA after facility inspection in Montreal where the drug is to be produced. Few pending queries on the labelling issues of Rubifill remains unresolved and management expects to resolve the issue in near term.
Jubilant completed successful inspection of USFDA of its plants in Nanjangud (API) and Radiopharma facility in Montreal in Q3FY16
It received 8 ANDAs while launched 3 ANDAs in US in FY16. Jubilant’s cumulative filings are 72 with 28 ANDAs are pending for approval in US. The company plans to file 7‐8 ANDAs in FY17E
With capex incurred of Rs3.37bn including product development costs of Rs1.16bn in FY16, the management guided for Rs4.5bn capex in FY17E, including product development costs of Rs1.5bn
With net debt reduction of Rs3.68bn (US$25m) in FY16, the company’s Gross debt stood at Rs 45.1bn and Net debt was at Rs 41.7bn in March 2016
May 25, 2016
2
Exhibit 1:
Jubilant Life Sciences
Q4FY16 Result Overview (Rs m)
Y/e March
Q4FY16
Q4FY15
YoY gr. (%)
Q3FY16
FY16
FY15
YoY gr. (%)
Net Sales
15,013
15,365
(2.3)
13,795
58,023
58,263
(0.4)
6,471
8,088
(20.0)
5,683
24,842
30,547
(18.7)
43.1
52.6
41.2
42.8
52.4
2,842
2,751
3.3
2,832
11,267
10,903
20.5
19.4
18.7
21.7
2,204
9,136
9,920
16.0
15.7
17.0
Raw Material
% of Net Sales
Personnel Cost
% of Net Sales
3.3
18.9
17.9
2,497
2,052
% of Net Sales
16.6
13.4
Total Expenditure
11,810
12,891
(8.4)
10,719
45,245
51,370
(11.9)
3,202
2,474
29.4
3,075
12,778
6,893
85.4
21.3
16.1
22.3
22.0
11.8
Others
EBITDA
Margin (%)
(7.9)
Depreciation
1,260
662
90.3
747
3,460
2,880
20.2
EBIT
1,942
1,812
7.2
2,329
9,318
4,013
132.2
25
58
(56.8)
29
136
425
(67.9)
Other Income Interest PBT Extra‐Ord. Inc./Exps.
922
854
8.0
925
3,786
3,553
6.5
1,045
1,017
2.8
1,432
5,669
884
(541.1)
‐
(339)
NA
32
(175)
657
NA
Total Taxes
503
251
100.8
230
1,529
805
89.9
ETR (%)
48.1
24.7
16.1
27.0
91.0
Reported PAT
542
427
(26.9)
1,169
4,315
(578)
847.0
Q4FY16
Q4FY15
YoY gr. (%)
Q3FY16
FY16
FY15
YoY gr. (%)
8,393
7,626
10.1
7,278
30,548
26,820
13.9
% of Net Sales
55.9
49.6
52.8
52.6
46.0
Life Science ingredients
6,620
7,740
6,517
27,475
31,442
44.1
50.4
47.2
47.4
54.0
15,013
15,365
13,795
58,023
58,263
Source: Company Data, PL Research Exhibit 2:
Major Sources of Revenues (Rs m)
Y/e March Pharmaceuticals
% of Net Sales
Total Sales
(14.5) (2.3)
(12.6) (0.4)
Source: Company Data, PL Research
May 25, 2016
3
Jubilant Life Sciences
Exhibit 3: Pharma sales and growth Sales (Rs m)
YoY gr. (%) (RHS)
9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 ‐
Q4FY16
Q3FY16
Q2FY16
Q1FY16
Q4FY15
Q3FY15
Q2FY15
Q1FY15
Q4FY14
Q3FY14
Q2FY14
Q1FY14
Q4FY13
Q3FY13
Q2FY13
Q1FY13
Q4FY12
Q3FY12
Q2FY12
Q1FY12
60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 ‐10.0 ‐20.0
Source: Company Data, PL Research Exhibit 4: LSI Sales and Growth Sales (Rs m)
YoY gr. (%) (RHS)
10,000
40.0
8,000
30.0 20.0
6,000
10.0 4,000
0.0
2,000
‐10.0 ‐20.0
Q1FY12 Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14 Q1FY15 Q2FY15 Q3FY15 Q4FY15 Q1FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY16 Q4FY16
‐
Source: Company Data, PL Research Exhibit 5: US Sales and Growth Sales (Rs m)
YoY gr. (%) (RHS)
7,000
60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 ‐10.0 ‐20.0
6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000
Q4FY16
Q3FY16
Q2FY16
Q1FY16
Q4FY15
Q3FY15
Q2FY15
Q1FY15
Q4FY14
Q3FY14
Q2FY14
Q1FY14
Q4FY13
Q3FY13
Q2FY13
Q1FY13
Q4FY12
Q3FY12
Q2FY12
Q1FY12
‐
Source: Company Data, PL Research
May 25, 2016
4
Jubilant Life Sciences
Exhibit 6: India Sales and Growth Sales (Rs m)
YoY gr. (%) (RHS)
4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 ‐
Q4FY16
Q3FY16
Q2FY16
Q1FY16
Q4FY15
Q3FY15
Q2FY15
Q1FY15
Q4FY14
Q3FY14
Q2FY14
Q1FY14
Q4FY13
Q3FY13
Q2FY13
Q1FY13
Q4FY12
Q3FY12
Q2FY12
Q1FY12
30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 ‐5.0 ‐10.0 ‐15.0
Source: Company Data, PL Research Exhibit 7: China Sales and Growth Sales (Rs m)
YoY gr. (%) (RHS)
1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 ‐
60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 ‐20.0 ‐40.0 ‐60.0
Q4FY16
Q3FY16
Q2FY16
Q1FY16
Q4FY15
Q3FY15
Q2FY15
Q1FY15
Q4FY14
Q3FY14
Q2FY14
Q1FY14
Q4FY13
Q3FY13
Q2FY13
Q1FY13
Q4FY12
Q3FY12
Q2FY12
Q1FY12
‐80.0
Source: Company Data, PL Research Exhibit 8: EU, Japan: Sales and Growth Sales (Rs m)
YoY gr. (%) (RHS)
3,500
80.0
3,000
60.0
2,500
40.0
2,000
20.0
1,500
0.0
1,000
Q4FY16
Q3FY16
Q2FY16
Q1FY16
Q4FY15
Q3FY15
Q2FY15
Q1FY15
Q4FY14
Q3FY14
Q2FY14
Q1FY14
Q4FY13
Q3FY13
Q2FY13
Q1FY13
Q4FY12
‐40.0
Q3FY12
‐
Q2FY12
‐20.0
Q1FY12
500
Source: Company Data, PL Research
May 25, 2016
5
Jubilant Life Sciences
Exhibit 9: Overall Sales and Growth Sales (Rs m)
YoY gr. (%) (RHS)
18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 ‐
Q1FY12 Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14 Q1FY15 Q2FY15 Q3FY15 Q4FY15 Q1FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY16 Q4FY16
35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 ‐5.0 ‐10.0
Source: Company Data, PL Research Exhibit 10: EBITDA and Margin: Pharma and LSI EBITDA (Rs m)
Margin (%) (RHS)
3,500
25.0
3,000
20.0
2,500 2,000
15.0
1,500
10.0
1,000
5.0
500
Q2FY16 Q1FY16
Q4FY16
Q1FY16 Q4FY15
Q3FY16
Q4FY15 Q3FY15
Q3FY15
Q2FY15
Q1FY15
Q4FY14
Q3FY14
Q2FY14
Q1FY14
Q4FY13
Q3FY13
Q2FY13
Q1FY13
Q4FY12
Q3FY12
Q2FY12
0.0
Q1FY12
‐
Source: Company Data, PL Research Exhibit 11: ROCE: Pharma and LSI Pharma ROCE
LSI ROCE
30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0
Q4FY16
Q3FY16
Q2FY16
Q2FY15
Q1FY15
Q4FY14
Q3FY14
Q2FY14
Q1FY14
Q4FY13
Q3FY13
Q2FY13
Q1FY13
Q4FY12
Q3FY12
Q2FY12
(5.0)
Q1FY12
‐
Source: Company Data, PL Research
May 25, 2016
6
Income Statement (Rs m) Y/e March 2015 Net Revenue Raw Material Expenses Gross Profit Employee Cost Other Expenses EBITDA Depr. & Amortization Net Interest Other Income Profit before Tax Total Tax Profit after Tax Ex‐Od items / Min. Int. Adj. PAT Avg. Shares O/S (m) EPS (Rs.)
57,761 26,617 31,144 10,903 13,850 6,392 2,880 3,553 926 884 805 79 (786) (97) 159.3 (0.6)
2016
2017E
2018E
57,005 21,175 35,830 11,267 12,803 11,759 3,460 3,786 1,155 5,669 1,529 4,140 349 4,140 159.3 26.0
62,472 23,114 39,357 11,807 13,994 13,556 3,558 4,142 1,167 7,023 1,896 5,127 — 5,127 159.3 32.2
68,187 25,366 42,821 12,478 15,342 15,001 4,543 4,077 1,178 7,560 2,041 5,519 — 5,519 159.3 34.6
Jubilant Life Sciences
Balance Sheet Abstract (Rs m) Y/e March 2015
2016
2017E
2018E
24,535 47,931 3,449 75,915 55,079 — 395 16,872 3,943 23,336 10,407 3,569 75,915
29,096 37,722 4,790 71,607 68,328 — 361 11,150 3,445 25,568 17,863 3,246 83,086
35,826 36,881 5,290 77,998 69,270 — 372 7,058 2,480 22,188 17,610 1,299 77,998
40,770 36,069 5,849 82,688 68,727 — 383 12,085 5,228 24,455 17,598 1,494 82,688
Quarterly Financials (Rs m) Y/e March Q1FY16
Q2FY16
Q3FY16
Q4FY16
14,631 3,206 21.9 751 924 (6) 1,525 390 1,158 1,158
13,795 3,075 22.3 747 900 3 1,432 230 1,169 1,169
15,013 3,202 21.3 1,260 899 2 1,045 503 707 707
2015
2016
2017E
2018E
Pharmaceuticals 26,820 LSI 31,442 Source: Company Data, PL Research.
29,652 28,102
33,369 29,102
37,702 30,485
Shareholder's Funds Total Debt Other Liabilities Total Liabilities Net Fixed Assets Goodwill Investments Net Current Assets Cash & Equivalents Other Current Assets Current Liabilities Other Assets Total Assets
Cash Flow Abstract (Rs m) Y/e March C/F from Operations C/F from Investing C/F from Financing Inc. / Dec. in Cash Opening Cash Closing Cash FCFF FCFE
2015
2016
2017E
2018E
7,833 (3,433) (5,027) (628) 4,735 3,916 256 4,234
8,782 (4,512) (4,742) (472) 3,916 3,445 8,323 (1,886)
7,985 (4,467) (4,482) (965) 3,445 2,480 7,312 6,472
11,003 (3,967) (4,287) 2,748 2,480 5,228 3,782 2,970
Revenue (%) EBITDA (%) PAT (%) EPS (%)
Profitability EBITDA Margin (%) PAT Margin (%) RoCE (%) RoE (%)
Balance Sheet Net Debt : Equity Net Wrkng Cap. (days)
Valuation PER (x) P / B (x) EV / EBITDA (x) EV / Sales (x)
Earnings Quality
14,586 3,294 22.6 702 927 1 1,666 405 1,281 1,281
Key Financial Metrics Y/e March Growth
Net Revenue EBITDA % of revenue Depr. & Amortization Net Interest Other Income Profit before Tax Total Tax Profit after Tax Adj. PAT
2015
2016
2017E
1.0 (31.0) (103.0) (102.9)
(1.3) 84.0 (4,385.9) (4,385.9)
9.6 15.3 23.8 23.8
9.1 10.7 7.6 7.6
21.7 8.2 11.3 15.8
22.0 8.1 11.1 14.4
1.0 160
0.8 161
11.0 1.6 6.7 1.5
10.3 1.4 5.8 1.3
27.0 16.6 4.3 126.2
27.0 15.6 5.2 53.8
11.1 (0.2) 3.4 (0.4)
20.6 7.3 9.6 15.4
1.8 125
1.2 166
(585.7) 2.3 15.7 1.7
13.7 1.9 7.7 1.6
Eff. Tax Rate 91.0 Other Inc / PBT 104.7 Eff. Depr. Rate (%) 3.9 FCFE / PAT (4,383.1) Source: Company Data, PL Research.
27.0 20.4 4.4 (45.6)
2018E
Key Operating Metrics (Rs m) Y/e March
May 25, 2016
7
Jubilant Life Sciences
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. 3rd Floor, Sadhana House, 570, P. B. Marg, Worli, Mumbai‐400 018, India Tel: (91 22) 6632 2222 Fax: (91 22) 6632 2209 Rating Distribution of Research Coverage
% of Total Coverage
50%
41.2%
PL’s Recommendation Nomenclature
42.1%
40% 30% 16.7%
20% 10%
0.0% 0% BUY
Accumulate
Reduce
BUY
:
Over 15% Outperformance to Sensex over 12‐months
Accumulate
:
Outperformance to Sensex over 12‐months
Reduce
:
Underperformance to Sensex over 12‐months
Sell
:
Over 15% underperformance to Sensex over 12‐months
Trading Buy
:
Over 10% absolute upside in 1‐month
Trading Sell
:
Over 10% absolute decline in 1‐month
Not Rated (NR)
:
No specific call on the stock
Under Review (UR) :
Sell
Rating likely to change shortly
DISCLAIMER/DISCLOSURES ANALYST CERTIFICATION We/I, Mr. Surajit Pal (PGDBA, CFA, M.Com), Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Terms & conditions and other disclosures: Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd, Mumbai, India (hereinafter referred to as “PL”) is engaged in the business of Stock Broking, Portfolio Manager, Depository Participant and distribution for third party financial products. 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PL or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the subject Company or third party in connection with the preparation of the research report. PL or its Research Analysts do not have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. It is confirmed that Mr. Surajit Pal (PGDBA, CFA, M.Com), Research Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. The Research analysts for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. 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May 25, 2016
RADHAKRISHNA N SREESANKAR
Digitally signed by RADHAKRISHNAN SREESANKAR DN: c=IN, o=Personal, cn=RADHAKRISHNAN SREESANKAR, serialNumber=8859da2df03122989b585ad520865a 4f59be69fbc1b7ba2c5315941f987f41de, postalCode=400104, st=MAHARASHTRA Date: 2016.05.25 00:05:08 +05'30'
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