Market Alert India NPK Statistical Update June 2016 Statistics DAP 

India Plant Nutrient Shipments Current Month

June NPK statistics released by the Fertilizer Association of India (FAI) indicated DAP shipments picked up steam from May, topping the average for June but still coming in well below last year. With a quarter of the fertilizer year in the books, DAP shipments of 1.5 million tonnes are a third behind last year’s pace (likely driven by expectations that prices would move lower). With lower retail prices now a reality and an above-average monsoon so far, we expect this differential to close (though not quite match last year’s shipment total). June DAP imports as reported by FAI were the highest in a year, but YTD arrivals are still 39% lower than a year ago. With a workable subsidy and relatively stable rupee, we will likely see a bit more pushing of imports into Rabi compared to last year. DAP production is on its fastest pace since 2009 (+57% YoY or ~400,000 tonnes), but lower retail prices and high inventory are expected to pull down output for the balance of the year.

1000 MT DAP MOP Urea NPK

Year-To-Date (FY) 1000 MT DAP MOP Urea NPK Source: FAI

MOP 

The main news in the potash sector was settlement of a 2016/17 potash contract ahead of China (at a $227/tonne c&f headline price), which applies to prices July forward. Sales of direct application MOP in June marched higher, with shipments during the first quarter of 2016/17 now off 1% YoY at 452,000 tonnes. Imports more than doubled from May and now total 550,000 tonnes YTD, which is down 18% from last year. While we expect to see a nice boost in use this year, high pipeline inventories and a lack of clarity regarding subsidies and retail prices has made some suppliers cautious in their import decisions.

1000 MT DAP MOP Urea NPK

Year-To-Date (FY)

67.5

1000 MT DAP MOP Urea NPK Source: FAI

900

70.0

800 Source: FOREX

% Chg Prior Yr -33% -1% -18% -13%

% Chg Prior Jun '16 Jun '15 Yr 965 1,101 -12% 285 350 -19% 830 469 77% 109 114 -4%

YTD 16/17 1,558 550 1,601 236

7-Yr Avg 1,629 466 5,706 N/A

% Chg 7-Yr Avg -8% -3% 1% N/A

YTD 15/16 2,550 669 1,472 320

% Chg Prior Yr -39% -18% 9% -26%

7-Yr Avg 674 364 385 N/A

% Chg 7-Yr Avg 43% -22% 115% N/A

7-Yr Avg 1,282 768 1,203 N/A

% Chg 7-Yr Avg 22% -28% 33% N/A

Monthly Average Prices

US$ MT

Indian Rupee

YTD 15/16 2,250 456 7,021 1,630

% Chg 7-Yr Avg 3% -22% 18% N/A

Current Month

Urea shipments started the year off at the slowest pace since 2010/11 but have made up some ground; however, at 5.7 million tonnes YTD, they are still 18% below the record setting level seen last year. First quarter imports, on the other hand, are 9% ahead of the same period last year, which has caused a spike in reported inventories. In fact, stocks as reported by FAI are the highest in exactly eight years. YTD production of 5.7 million tonnes is even with last year. INR / US$

YTD 16/17 1,507 452 5,737 1,413

7-Yr Avg 785 279 2,402 N/A

India Plant Nutrient Imports

Urea 

% Chg Prior Jun '16 Jun '15 Yr 808 1,101 -27% 217 239 -9% 2,838 2,431 17% 801 958 -16%

Source: Average from several pub lications

700 600

65.0

500 400

62.5

300 200

60.0

100 57.5 55.0 Jan '14 THE MOSAIC COMPANY

0 Jan '14 Jul '14 |

Jan '15

Jul '15

Jan '16

MARKET & STRATEGIC ANALYSIS GROUP

Jul '16 |

INDIA NPK STATISTICAL UPDATE

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Jan '15

Jul '15

Jan '16

PACID India c&f

DAP India c&f

NH3 India c&f

Sulphur India c&f

Jul '16

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Shipments 1000 Tonnes 1,600

Min/Max Range (11/12-15/16) 16/17 7-Yr Olympic Average

1,400

Mil Tonnes

India DAP Shipments

India DAP Shipments

12.0

Source: FAI

Source: FAI 10.0

1,200

Fertilizer Year Ending March 31 8.0

1,000

6.0

800 600

4.0

400 2.0 200 0.0

0 Apr May Jun

1000 Tonnes 600 500

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 YTD

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Mil Tonnes

India MOP Direct Application Shipments Min/Max Range (11/12-15/16) 16/17 7-Yr Olympic Average

India MOP Direct Application Shipments

5.0

Source: FAI

Source: FAI 4.0 Fertilizer Year Ending March 31

400 3.0

300 2.0

200 1.0

100

0.0

0 Apr May Jun

Mil Tonnes 4.0 3.5

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 YTD

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Mil Tonnes

India Urea Shipments Min/Max Range (11/12-15/16) 16/17 7-Yr Olympic Average

India Urea Shipments

35.0

Source: FAI

Source: FAI 30.0 Fertilizer Year Ending March 31

3.0

25.0

2.5

20.0

2.0 15.0

1.5 10.0

1.0

5.0

0.5

0.0

0.0 Apr May Jun THE MOSAIC COMPANY

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Imports 1000 Tonnes 1,600

Min/Max Range (11/12-15/16) 16/17 7-Yr Olympic Average

1,400

Mil Tonnes

India DAP Imports Source: FAI

India DAP Imports

8.0 Source: FAI 7.0

1,200

6.0

1,000

5.0

800

4.0

600

3.0

400

2.0

200

1.0

Fertilizer Year Ending March 31

0.0

0 Apr May Jun

1000 Tonnes 1,000 900 800

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 YTD

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Mil Tonnes

India MOP Imports Min/Max Range (11/12-15/16) 16/17 7-Yr Olympic Average

Source: FAI

India MOP Imports

7.0 Source: FAI 6.0

700

5.0

600

4.0

Fertilizer Year Ending March 31

500 3.0

400

2.0

300 200

1.0

100 0.0

0 Apr May Jun

Mil Tonnes 1.8 1.6 1.4

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 YTD

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Mil Tonnes

India Urea Imports Min/Max Range (11/12-15/16) 16/17 7-Yr Olympic Average

10.0

Source: FAI

9.0 8.0

India Urea Imports

Source: FAI Fertilizer Year Ending March 31

7.0

1.2

6.0

1.0

5.0

0.8

4.0

0.6

3.0

0.4

2.0

0.2

1.0 0.0

0.0 Apr May Jun

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Production India Plant Nutrient Production Current Month

% Chg Prior Yr Jun '16 Jun '15 347 278 25% 2,008 1,946 3% 752 741 1%

1000 MT DAP Urea NPK

Year-To-Date (FY) YTD 16/17 1,110 5,666 1,775

1000 MT DAP Urea NPK

YTD 15/16 705 5,691 1,847

% Chg Prior Yr 57% 0% -4%

7-Yr Avg 305 1,848 N/A

% Chg 7-Yr Avg 14% 9% N/A

7-Yr Avg 825 5,171 N/A

% Chg 7-Yr Avg 35% 10% N/A

Source: FAI 1000 Tonnes 500

Min/Max Range (11/12-15/16) 16/17 7-Yr Olympic Average

450 400

Mil Tonnes

India DAP Production

6.0

Source: FAI

India DAP Production

Source: FAI

Fertilizer Year Ending March 31

5.0

350

4.0

300 250

3.0

200 2.0

150 100

1.0

50 0.0

0 Apr May Jun

Mil Tonnes 2.5

2.0

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 YTD

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Mil Tonnes

India Urea Production Min/Max Range (11/12-15/16) 16/17 7-Yr Olympic Average

30.0

Source: FAI

25.0

India Urea Production

Source: FAI Fertilizer Year Ending March 31

20.0

1.5 15.0

1.0

10.0

0.5

5.0 0.0

0.0 Apr May Jun

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Stocks 1000 Tonnes

1,200

India Plant Nutrient Stocks

India DAP Stocks Min/Max Range (11/12-15/16) 16/17 7-Yr Olympic Average

1,400

Source: FAI

Current Month 1000 MT DAP MOP Urea NPK Source: FAI

1,000 800 600

% Chg Prior Jun '16 Jun '15 Yr 941 454 107% 214 302 -29% 1,804 269 571% 962 659 46%

7-Yr Avg 347 128 718 N/A

% Chg 7-Yr Avg 171% 67% 151% N/A

400 200 0 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

1000 Tonnes 600 500

Mil Tonnes 2.5

India MOP Stocks Min/Max Range (11/12-15/16) 16/17 7-Yr Olympic Average

Source: FAI

2.0

India Urea Stocks Min/Max Range (11/12-15/16) 16/17 7-Yr Olympic Average

Source: FAI

400 1.5 300 1.0 200 0.5

100 0

0.0 Apr May Jun

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INDIA NPK STATISTICAL UPDATE

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